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This paper is a comparative analysis of Nigeria and Kenya, the largest economies in West and East Africa respectively, on the basis of the time series properties of their economic activities through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and growth rate series. It further analyses how differing policy and political economy processes contributed to the two countries' economic growth trajectories despite becoming independent republics at almost the same time. We study the two economies using a long‐memory‐fractionally integrated approach. The results show a high degree of persistence in both cases. When non‐linearities are taken into account, evidence of mean reversion is found in the GDP series in the two countries. This is indicative of how the two countries in very distinct African contexts followed broadly different but, in some ways, similar paths toward economic growth since independence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causal relationships between globalization and energy consumption for MINT member countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) over the period 1970–2015, while controlling for the effect of gross domestic product. To control for common unobserved shocks and country‐specific heterogeneity inherent in panel data analyses, we employ the cross‐sectional augmented ADF and IPS tests to confirm the panel stationarity properties. We test for causal relations at country and panel levels through the Emirmahmutoglu & Kose, Economic Modelling, 2011, 28(3), 870–876 panel causality test for heterogeneous mixed panels. The causality results show that globalization is strongly related to energy consumption in MINT countries. Specifically, at the country level, we detect feedback causality between globalization and energy consumption in Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, and find unidirectional causality running from globalization to energy consumption in Mexico. At the panel level, we also detect feedback causality between both variables. In general, our results lend credence to previous findings on globalization‐driven energy consumption hypothesis for MINT countries. Useful policy insights are also provided on the basis of our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to reinvestigate the long run relationship between credit market development and economic growth in Nigeria covering the years between 1981 and 2016 by applying recently developed econometric techniques. In addition to measures of credit market development indicators of domestic credit to the private sector and broad money, trade openness, foreign direct investment and urbanization are also included in estimations to overcome the omitted variable problem. The measure for economic growth used is real gross domestic product. To the best of our knowledge, no study has been conducted before, examining these relationships with all these listed indicators. Therefore, this study proposes to close this gap in the literature. To capture the long run effects, we used ARDL, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimator approaches. Findings uncover that (a) a long run equilibrium relationship exists between credit market development and economic growth, (b) economic policy makers are required to seek after developing the credit market with the main intention of guaranteeing that banks and other money related establishments are enabled and empowered to give the essential funds to the beneficial part of the economy which are urban and private sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigates the effect of stock market volatility on economic growth in Nigeria, accounting for the moderating role globalization (economic, social and political globalization) from 1981 to 2018. Applying the recently developed unit root with structural breaks by Lee and Strazicich test, the Bayer–Hancks and Johansen cointegration tests, the results show that all the variables (real gross domestic product, stock market returns and globalization index) are integrated of order one, and are also cointegrated, suggesting evidence of long‐run relationship. Further, the results of the GARCH(1,1) model indicate that the effect of shocks to SMR volatility are very likely to be permanent than temporary. Regarding the nexus between stock market return and economic growth, the study reveals a positive, inelastic but statistically insignificant effect of stock market returns on economic growth in Nigeria. Also, globalization has a positive, elastic and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore, recommends collaborations on policy measures that would stabilize and reposition the stock market to continue playing its critical role of galvanizing funds for investment and stimulating economic growth and as well strengthens globalization related policies to achieve economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study examines the dynamic relationship between oil revenue, government spending and economic growth in Nigeria. Since the discovery of oil, oil proceeds have dominated the country's federation account and have improved public spending. In this paper, we analyse if the huge government spending has improved the rate of economic growth. To do this, the multivariate vector autoregression framework with special attention to Generalised Impulse Response Function is adopted in analysing the annual data of oil revenue, total government expenditure and real Gross Domestic Product from 1980 to 2015. We find evidence that oil receipts remain the major route which public spending is financed and the fundamental source for growth. Hence, there is need for the government to diversify the sources of foreign exchange inflow of the country. The diversification of the economy is required to insulate it from external shocks. It is recommended for Nigeria to explore ways of reviving its huge agricultural potential which has been neglected since the discovery of oil in addition to exploring its rich untapped solid minerals deposit in order to promote diversification of the economy away from a mono cultural product base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the asymmetric non-linear relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria between 1976 and 2010. Prior studies have examined the direction of causality between insurance and economic growth with mixed conclusions in the insurance-growth literature. Moreover, the majority of these studies assumed symmetric causal relationships by concentrating mainly on testing the supply-leading and demand-following hypothesis. This paper, therefore, contributes to the literature by examining the asymmetric causality test between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria. After the cointegration, the asymmetry causality and the asymmetric impulse responses show a robust significant relationship between high gross domestic product (GDP) and low insurance in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The motivation for this study had been to assess whether the established determinants of public spending decisions in Nigeria which are government revenue, the inflation rate, the exchange rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product, and the international price of oil, do actually affect per capita budget spending as assumed by the fiscal authorities. However, evidence from the baseline symmetric and asymmetric auto‐regressive distributive lag regressions suggest otherwise. A further probe by adding population growth rate, and gross fixed capital formation to the baseline variables to have a robust regression, suggests that while gross fixed capital formation which measures for infrastructure development was insignificant, population growth rate was crucial for the instituted determinants to exert substantial effect on per capita spending. This outcome can be taken as evidence of why the budget on a yearly basis is being perceived by most citizens as an ineffective tool of fiscal policy. Since the fiscal authorities have continued to always assume that factors that play crucial role in formulating their spending decisions; are the same with those necessary in deciding the share of Nigerians in the budget; without due consideration for population growth. Hence, ridiculing whatever goal the budget is set out to achieve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the geographical variation in socio‐economic and infrastructural development in Nigeria, this study examines the possible effect of the different sources of sub‐national government revenue across the country. This is in contrast to previous studies that are either based on individual unit level of analysis or examined the relationship between the aggregated composition of government revenue with socio‐economic and infrastructural development in the country. The data for this study were assembled from the National Bureau of Statistics, Federal Ministry of Health and Federal Ministry of Education and were analysed using spatial statistics and stepwise linear regression. Findings show that sub‐national government revenue is spatially dispersed, while federal allocation (FA) accounted for the major source of sub‐national government revenue, indicating poor internal revenue generation by states. Pay‐as‐you‐earn tax (PAYE), revenue from Ministries and Departments (MDAs), direct assessment, road taxes and FA were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the provision of educational facilities and employment, while PAYE, revenue from MDAs and FA were associated with the provision of health facilities. The study recommends that, to boost revenue generation, states should focus on the production of commodities for which they have comparative advantage. Also, to achieve comprehensive socio‐economic and infrastructural development, the government must be strategic in the allocation of revenue, which entails having a framework that will include projects of immense benefits to the citizens while also ensuring equitable allocation of revenue in the provision of basic services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several strategies are open to an economy in its attempt to attain sustainable economic development, depending on its historical background and resource endowment. One such strategy is the resource-led strategy. Nigeria is very rich in crude oil and has reaped billions of petrodollars. However, the country faces the problem of successfully translating this huge oil wealth into sustainable development. This paper employs the vector error correction technique in examining the long-run impact of the huge oil wealth accruing to Nigeria on its economic development. Basic indicators such as growth, private consumption, infrastructure (electricity), agriculture and manufacturing output growth rates are examined. The empirical results suggest a significant positive long-run impact of per capita oil revenue on per capita household consumption and electricity generation while a negative relationship is established for GDP, agriculture and manufacturing. Even for those with a negative relationship at current period, there exist positive relationships at subsequent lags. Thus, oil revenue, if properly managed and invested, could be effectively used to induce oil-led development for Nigeria provided that the initial inhibitions of corruption, lack of transparency, accountability and fairness in its use and distribution are removed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the changing impact of oil price shocks on Nigeria and South Africa. Using a structural break approach, recent studies have established the altered impact of oil price shocks consequent to the Great Moderation that commenced in the mid‐1980s. While several studies have focused on the oil–macroeconomic relationship in Africa, little attention has been paid to the variation across different periods. This study investigated the possible changing impact of oil on inflation and the real gross domestic product growth rate in the two largest African economies that are, respectively, net oil‐exporting and net importing countries. A data set from 1970 quarter 1 to 2016 quarter 4 was employed. An impulse response function was used as a referenced model while rolling impulse approach was adopted to ascertain variation across periods. Our findings show the magnitude of the impacts of oil price shocks has declined significantly since the 1990s. Several factors were adduced for the muted effects of oil in the two economies. These factors were largely driven by domestic policies and institutional reforms. Hence, not taking account of the time‐varying nature of the relationship may not provide a complete picture of the relationships between oil and macroeconomic outcomes among African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, cointegration and causality between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria over the period 1971–2006 were analysed. The study used vector error correction models to test the relationships. The results of these tests showed the existence of cointegration as well as unidirectional causality-running from GDP to energy in Nigeria. The conclusion from these results was that decline in GDP or economic recession may have an adverse effects on energy consumption in Nigeria. However, energy conservation policies could be effectively implemented without any negative consequence on the growth of GDP in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use satellite imagery on night-time lights to measure growth across states and local government areas in Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999. The data suggest that states in southern Nigeria have grown faster on average than states in the north. Using the Ordinary Least Squares, I estimate a relationship between change in night lights and real gross domestic product ( GDP) growth in Africa and use the coefficients to estimate GDP growth for states and local government areas in Nigeria over the period. Finally, I evaluate the effects of violence on growth in Plateau, Yobe and Borno states. I find that the crisis in Plateau state has resulted in slower growth compared with other states in the region. I also show that Yobe and Borno states had performed worse than other states in the north even before the outbreak of violence related to the Boko Haram sect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the causal relationships among GDP, export, imports and remittances. The study, among others, investigated the validity of export-led and remittances-led growth hypotheses. Specifically, the study investigated the causal relationship between remittances and GDP, remittances and export and remittances and imports. Employing a VECM Granger Causality for data spanning between 1980 and 2012, imports and remittances significantly Granger-caused GDP in the short run. Also, there were reverse causalities running from GDP to export and imports. This implies that export-led growth hypothesis holds in Nigeria. Furthermore, there was a unidirectional causation running from remittances to GDP, implying that remittances matter for economic growth. But since the effect was more from the demand side, it could lead to inflationary pressure. The policy recommendation is that the authorities should intensify efforts on the export base of the economy. The monetary authorities should implement necessary policy to cool the pressure arising from conspicuous spending of remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection in Nigeria. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years. We conclude with a discussion of the quantitative significance of these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The passage into law of the Nigerian local content bill is one of the significant developments for domesticating the oil and gas industry through local value additions to the local economy. The bill received presidential assent on 22 April 2010 and created a law to provide for the development of indigenous content in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. The law also establishes the Nigerian Content Monitoring Board (board), which is charged with the responsibility to manage the coordination, monitoring and implementation of the local content law. Previous acts of the government had made feeble attempts at developing a local content framework for the industry and the fanfare associated with the recent enactment into law of the Nigerian local content bill very understandable. Nigeria is the world's eighth biggest oil exporter and relies on crude as its main foreign exchange earner. The industry accounts for over 40 per cent of Nigeria's gross domestic product and is associated with over a billion dollars worth of investments annually. There is a marked absence of indigenous players involved in these transactions, where about 90 per cent of goods and services used in the industry are imported from overseas. The local content law seeks to increase indigenous participation by prescribing minimum thresholds for the use of local services and to promote the employment of Nigerian staff in the industry. In this article, the writer makes a succinct analysis of the provisions of the Nigerian Local Content Act and argues that an antidote has been found for local participation in the vibrant Nigerian oil and gas sector. The writer concludes that, similar to Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Kuwait, the local content law will go a long way in empowering indigenous oil and gas companies and assist Nigeria in developing the technical capacity for the industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]