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This paper reviews privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) and explores their benefits when used to make traditional payment processes more private. PETs can decrease privacy risk by reducing the amount of sensitive information accessible to payment-processing personnel and systems. This paper proposes a framework for quantifying the risk-reduction benefits of PETs. This method can be used to calculate the amount of privacy-risk exposure that may be created by a set of payment activities, estimate the amount by which PETs can decrease that exposure, and compare that quantified benefit against possible PET drawbacks. Assessing these drawbacks is outside the scope of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive investigation of the potential for expanded central clearing to reduce the costs of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) on Treasury market intermediation in both cash and repo markets. Combining a detailed analysis of the rules involved in calculating the SLR with a unique set of regulatory data, we conclude that expanding central clearing would have relatively limited effects on the level of SLRs. We do find intermediaries’ increase their balance sheet netting when their regulatory balance sheet costs are higher. Our data permits us to establish a number of empirical facts related to the noncentrally cleared bilateral (NCCB) repo segment, and to repo activity overall, at the bank holding company level. We find that sizeable amounts of bilaterally-cleared activity would not be nettable even if centrally cleared. We also find that a significant portion of activity is already nettable outside of central clearing because dealers are structuring their NCCB trades to net. While expanded central clearing could have other benefits, such as imposing a more uniform margin regime on Treasury market intermediation, the scope of its effects on reducing balance sheet costs associated with the leverage ratio is limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) outcomes under lender scrutiny. Using the unique shocks of U.S. supervisory stress testing, we find that firms under increased lender scrutiny after their relationship banks fail stress tests engage in fewer but higher-quality M&A deals. Evidence from comprehensive supervisory data reveals improved credit quality for newly originated M&A-related loans under enhanced lender scrutiny. This improvement is further evident in positive stock return reactions to M&A deals financed by loans subject to enhanced lender scrutiny. As companies engage in fewer but higher-quality deals, they also experience higher returns on assets. Our findings highlight the importance of lender scrutiny in corporate M&A activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing mainly on OECD data and experience, this paper explores two major enhancements to the utility of international large-scale assessments (ILSAs). The first is the diversification of assessments, focusing on specific groups or individuals to offer more targeted diagnoses. This diversification allows the robust, internationally standardised scales to be applied at both group and individual levels, broadening their impact. The second enhancement is the flexibilisation of assessments. This involves the ongoing refinement of the item bank, increasing the adaptability and relevance of the assessments. Additionally, the paper presents prototypes of new assessment tools derived from existing assessments, employing the methodologies discussed herein. These innovations represent significant strides in the evolution and application of international large-scale assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using innovative longitudinal data from a survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients, we test several implications of a canonical job search model for reservation wages during unemployment spells. First, consistent with the model, we find that reservation wages fall faster when UI benefit durations are shorter. However, workers set their initial reservation wages higher, and adjust them slower, relative to model predictions. Second, workers' expectations--elicited at the beginning of their unemployment spell--about how their reservation wage will evolve if they remain unemployed are largely congruent with reservation wage realizations, as assumed in the canonical model. Third, our data on expectations and realizations suggest that dynamic selection over the unemployment spell is inconsequential for our results. Fourth, higher wages on workers' lost jobs, relative to predictions from a Mincerian wage regression, hasten the expected and realized declines in reservation wages over the unemployment spell. Finally, reservation wages are a more powerful predictor of re-employment wages than wages on the previous job. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Companies face different effective marginal tax rates on their income. This can be detrimental to allocative efficiency unless taxes offset other distortions in the economy. This paper estimates the effect of tax rate heterogeneity on aggregate productivity in distorted economies with multiple frictions. Using firm-level balance-sheet data and estimates of marginal tax rates, we find that tax heterogeneity reduces total factor productivity by about 3 percent. Our findings highlight the positive correlation between marginal tax rates and other distortions to capital and especially labor. This implies that tax rate heterogeneity exacerbates the distortionary effects of other frictions in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative employer-employee matched data from the US Census Bureau; and 2) firmlevel information on the first large-scale H-1B visa lottery in 2007. Using an event-study approach, we find that lottery wins lead to increases in firm hiring of college-educated, immigrant labor along with increases in scale and survival. These effects are stronger for small, skill-intensive, and high-productivity firms that participate in the lottery. We do not find evidence for displacement of native-born, college-educated workers at the firm level, on net. However, this result masks dynamics among more specific subgroups of incumbents that we further elucidate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If test-takers do not engage with the assessment, the reliability of test scores and the validity of inferences about their proficiency may suffer. Test-taker disengagement is particularly likely in low-stakes assessments and, according to prior research, for certain types of students. But levels of engagement may also be related to aspects that test developers can manipulate, such as item characteristics. This paper investigates which item characteristics are associated with two indicators of test-taker disengagement, rapid guessing and breakoffs, in an international assessment of reading. Analyses of data from almost 500 000 students from 67 countries and economies that took part in the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) show that rapid guessing was observed mainly on simple multiple-choice questions. Breakoffs were more likely in the presence of idiosyncratic selected-response formats, such as hot spot or matching tasks. Both rapid guessing and breakoffs were more frequent on tasks involving long and complex texts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students are much more than their grades. Beyond performing well in school, students must learn to manage relationships with their teachers, peers and family, confront stress, find purpose in what they do, and deal with a series of factors oftentimes beyond their control - all of this, during a particularly sensitive period of their lives. How they do across all these dimensions of life shapes their well-being - which in turn affects their school performance and their life outcomes beyond school. In 2015, the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) broke new ground by including indicators of student well-being alongside traditional measures of academic performance. Despite ongoing efforts to prioritize this aspect in subsequent cycles, the data on student well-being often remain overshadowed by country and economy scores in mathematics, science, and reading - traditionally considered the primary outputs of PISA. This paper presents a proposal to increase the visibility and policy impact of PISA indicators on wellbeing, by organising them in thematic areas and presenting them through data visualisations that respond to the needs of different kinds of users. The proposed PISA dashboard on students' well-being has the potential to offer policy makers, educators, parents, and other stakeholders a comparative perspective on how well schools are fostering the essential foundations for students to lead fulfilling lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is little knowledge about the shape, prominence and drivers of work-to-work transitions in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines these elements in the context of South Africa and Indonesia - two middle-income countries with similar development levels yet different labour market characteristics. We employ a comparative cross-country methodology using long-term panel data. This enables us to examine work-to-work transitions across and within age cohorts and exploit the panel structure of the data through a fixed-effects model to identify the drivers of these transitions. We find that while the prominent transition types differ between the two countries, younger workers have higher transition rates. Moreover, we find that precarious forms of employment are persistent: individuals who start their careers at the bottom of the transition ladder (i.e., in informal work, the agriculture sector or a low-skill occupation) are less likely to transition out of this situation. Finally, we unveil suggestive evidence that computer and socioemotional skills play a role in encouraging certain transitions in South Africa and Indonesia, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In theory, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates can generate substantial downward pressure on longer-term inflation expectations. We use data on interest rate options and inflation compensation to estimate the degree to which the probability that the zero lower bound binds in the future has weighed on inflation expectations in the United States. Over the 2008-2019 period, we estimate that the zero lower bound imparted only a small drag on longer-term inflation expectations of around 10 basis points. We argue that the Federal Reserve's use of forward guidance and largescale asset purchases largely offset the potential disinflationary effects of the zero lower bound, even prior to formally adopting an average inflation targeting framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show how private equity (PE) buyouts fuel loan sales and non-bank participation in the U.S. syndicated loan market. Combining loan-level data from the Shared National Credit register with buyout deals from Pitchbook, we find that PE-backed loans feature lower bank monitoring, lower loan shares retained by the lead bank, and more loan sales to non-bank financial intermediaries. For PE-backed loans, the sponsor's reputation and the strength of its relationship with the lead bank further reduce the lead bank's retained share and monitoring. Our results suggest that PE sponsor engagement substitutes for bank monitoring, allowing banks to retain less skin-in-the game in the loans they originate and to sell greater loan shares to non-banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calls for increased monitoring and evaluation of education policies and practices have not, so far, included widespread and consistent assessments of the inclusiveness of education settings. Measuring inclusion in education has proven to be a challenging exercise, due not only to the complexity and different uses of the concept, but also to its holistic nature. Indeed, measuring inclusion implies analysing a variety of policy areas within education systems, while also considering the different roles of the system, the school and the classroom. This paper discusses the application of the input-process-outcome model to the measurement of inclusion in education, and key indicators that can be adopted by education systems and schools to this end. It makes considerations relevant to policy makers when designing indicators to measure inclusion, such as the extent of their application, the constraints related to data disaggregation and the relevance of intersectional approaches to inclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labour market transitions that workers experience throughout their working life play an important role in current policy discussions surrounding the future of work. Transitions occur between employment, unemployment and inactivity, but also between formality and informality, as well as between different occupations or industries. This paper discusses methodologies that are available from the literature to estimate the incidence and frequency of transitions using data from labour force surveys, which are run as a rotating panel. The paper then applies these methodologies to Viet Nam in 2011-19, producing estimates of different types of labour market transitions. Without aiming to be comprehensive, this paper provides some examples of what type of data can be produced, demonstrating the feasibility and value of transitions data for labour market analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide data and code that successfully reproduces nearly all crosssectional stock return predictors. Our 319 characteristics draw from previous meta-studies, but we differ by comparing our t-stats to the original papers' results. For the 161 characteristics that were clearly significant in the original papers, 98% of our long-short portfolios find t-stats above 1.96. For the 44 characteristics that had mixed evidence, our reproductions find t-stats of 2 on average. A regression of reproduced t-stats on original longshort t-stats finds a slope of 0.90 and an R2 of 83%. Mean returns aremonotonic in predictive signals at the characteristic level. The remaining 114 characteristics were insignificant in the original papers or are modifications of the originals created byHou, Xue, and Zhang (2020). These remaining characteristics are almost always significant if the original characteristic was also significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, we document a significant negative association between consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, controlling for prevailing inflation in the economy. We further show that consumer sentiments of homeowners and stockowners are more sensitive to expected inflation than those of other consumers, a disparity at odds with the notion that owning such assets provides hedges against inflation. Leveraging data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we find three factors that help account for this difference. First, assets owners' outlook for the broad economy seems to be more sensitive to their inflation expectations than other consumers' outlook. Second, assets owners appear to expect income growth to lag spending growth by a wider margin than other consumers and that margin widens with inflation expectations. Third, homeowners' inflation expectations tend to be less variable and less volatile than those of renters, which may allow the former to have a greater bearing on consumer sentiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit predictability of forecast errors in macroeconomic survey data, which is often taken as evidence of behavioral biases at odds with rational expectations. We argue that to reject rational expectations, one must be able to predict forecast errors out of sample. However, the regressions used in the literature often perform poorly out of sample. The models seem unstable and could not have helped to improve forecasts with access only to available information. We do find some notable exceptions to this finding, in particular mean bias in interest rate forecasts, that survive our out-of-sample tests. Our findings help narrow down the set of biases that merit closer attention of researchers in behavioral macroeconomics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel finite-state Markov chain approximation method for Markov processes with continuous support, providing both an optimal grid and transition probability matrix. The method can be used for multivariate processes, as well as non-stationary processes such as those with a life-cycle component. The method is based on minimizing the information loss between a Hidden Markov Model and the true data-generating process. We provide sufficient conditions under which this information loss can be made arbitrarily small if enough grid points are used. We compare our method to existing methods through the lens of an asset-pricing model, and a life-cycle consumption-savings model. We find our method leads to more parsimonious discretizations and more accurate solutions, and the discretization matters for the welfare costs of risk, the marginal propensities to consume, and the amount of wealth inequality a life-cycle model can generate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers a New Keynesian framework in which agents form expectations based on a combination of mis-specified forecasts and myopia. The proposed expectations formation process is found to be consistent with all three empirical facts on consensus inflation forecasts, namely, that forecasters under-react to ex-ante forecast revisions, that forecasters over-react to recent events, and that the response of forecast errors to a shock initially under-shoots but then over-shoots. The paper then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the proposed expectations formation process and estimates the model with likelihood-based Bayesian methods, yielding three novel results: (i) The data strongly prefer the combination of autoregressive mis-specified forecasting rules and myopia over other alternatives; (ii) The best fitting expectations formation process for both households and firms is characterized by high degrees of myopia and simple AR(1) forecasting rules; (iii) Frictions such as habit in consumption, which are typically necessary for models with Full-information Rational Expectations, are significantly less important, because the proposed expectations generate substantial internal persistence and amplification to exogenous shocks. Simulated inflation expectations data from the estimated general equilibrium model reflect the three empirical facts on forecasting data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past decade, non-cognitive skills have gained attention as predictors of life outcomes over and above cognitive skills. This paper summarises several of our recent studies investigating the predictive power of the Big Five personality domains and grit on success at work, school and beyond using recent large-scale data. We also explored whether non-cognitive skills beyond the framework of the Big Five substantially add to explaining the variance in these outcomes. Together, these studies demonstrate that noncognitive skills are largely independent of cognitive skills and that they are incrementally associated with indicators of life success in youth and adulthood. Most of these associations can be generalised across countries. Measures of non-cognitive skills are thus valuable addendums to large-scale assessments like PIAAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantitatively evaluate the effects of UI on bankruptcy in an equilibrium model of labor market search and defaultable debt. First, we ask whether a standard unsecured credit model extended with labor market search and matching frictions can account for the negative correlation between UI caps and bankruptcy rates observed in the data. The model can account for this fact only if estimated with the employment rate among bankruptcy filers as a target. Not matching this employment rate underestimates the consumption smoothing benefits of UI cap increases, as the model assigns too much importance to unemployment shocks for driving default, and implies large welfare losses from increasing the cap rather than negligible gains. Second, with bankruptcy available, there are significant welfare gains from increasing the replacement rate above the calibrated value, but not in the absence of default. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the value of unemployment insurance (UI) can be decomposed into a liquidity component and an insurance component. While the liquidity component captures the value of relieving the cost to access liquidity during unemployment, the insurance component captures the value of protecting the worker against a potential permanent future income loss. We develop a novel sufficient statistics method to identify each component that requires only the labor supply responses to changes in the potential duration of UI and severance payment and implement it using Spanish administrative data. We find that the liquidity component represents half of the value of UI, while the insurance component captures the remaining half. However, the relevance of each component is highly heterogeneous across different groups of workers. Poorer and wealthier workers are both similarly liquidity-constrained, but poorer workers place a higher value on UI because the insurance component is significantly more important for them. On the other hand, wealthier workers and workers with more cash-on-hand value additional UI equally, but the wealthier value its liquidity, while those with more liquidity care about its insurance value. Finally, from a welfare perspective, we show that extending the potential duration of Spain's UI would increase welfare. However, in our counterfactual case where UI is complemented with the provision of liquidity, the optimal potential duration of Spain's UI should be lower than its current level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper studies the role of the collateral channel for bank credit using confidential bank-firm-loan data. We estimate that for a 1 percent increase in collateral values, firms pledging real estate collateral experience a 12 basis point higher growth in bank lending with higher sensitivities for more credit constrained firms. Higher real estate values boost firm capital expenditures and lead to lower unemployment and higher employment growth and business creation. Our estimates imply that as much as 37 percent of employment growth over the period from 2013 to 2019 can be attributed to the relaxation of borrowing constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how past experiences with privacy shocks affect individuals' likelihood to take precautionary behavior when faced with a new privacy shock in the context of credit markets. We focus on experiences with identity theft and data breaches, two kinds of privacy shocks that either directly lead to fraud or put an individual at an elevated risk of experiencing fraud. We show that immediately after the announcement of the 2017 Equifax data breach, individuals with either kind of prior fraud exposure were more likely to freeze their credit report and close credit card accounts than individuals with no prior exposure. We also find that prior victims of identity theft, a more serious type of exposure, were more likely to take precautionary actions than individuals who were victims of a previous data breach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using supervisory data from large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), we document that operational loss recovery rates decrease in macroeconomic downturns. This procyclical relationship varies by business lines and loss event types and is robust to alternative data aggregations, macroeconomic measurement horizons, and estimation methodologies. Further analysis shows that resource constraints faced by BHC risk management functions are a plausible explanation for these patterns. Our findings offer new evidence on how economic shocks transmit to banking industry losses with implications for risk management and supervision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through the lens of a nonlinear dynamic factor model, we study the role of exogenous shocks and internal propagation forces in driving the fluctuations of macroeconomic and financial data. The proposed model 1) allows for nonlinear dynamics in the state and measurement equations; 2) can generate asymmetric, state-dependent, and size-dependent responses of observables to shocks; and 3) can produce time-varying volatility and asymmetric tail risks in predictive distributions. We find evidence in favor of nonlinear dynamics in two important U.S. applications. The first uses interest rate data to extract a factor allowing for an effective lower bound and nonlinear dynamics. Our estimated factor coheres well with the historical narrative of monetary policy. We find that allowing for an effective lower bound constraint is crucial. The second recovers a credit cycle. The nonlinear component of the factor boosts credit growth in boom times while hinders its recovery post-crisis. Shocks in a credit crunch period are more amplified and persist for longer compared with shocks during a credit boom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that early joiners non-founder employees in the first year of a startup play a critical role in explaining firm performance. We use administrative employee- employer matched data on all US startups and utilize the premature death of workers as a natural experiment exogenously separating talent from young firms. We find that losing an early joiner has a large negative effect on firm size that persists for at least ten years. When compared to that of a founder, losing an early joiner has a smaller effect on firm death but intensive margin effects on firm size are similar in magnitude. We also find that early joiners become relatively more important with the age of the firm. In contrast, losing a later joiner yields only a small and temporary decline in firm performance. We provide evidence that is consistent with the idea that organization capital, an important driver of startup success, is embodied in early joiners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate whether participants display equal predictive performance. We use panel data models to evaluate point- and density-based forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment. The results document systematic differences in participants' forecast accuracy that are not time invariant, but instead vary with the difficulty of the forecasting environment. Specifically, we find that some participants display higher relative accuracy in tranquil environments, while others display higher relative accuracy in volatile environments. We also find that predictive performance is positively correlated across target variables and horizons, with density forecasts generating stronger correlation patterns. Taken together, the results support the development of expectations models featuring persistent heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard model of permanent and transitory income is known to be misspecified. Estimates of income volatility in the model differ depending on the type of data moments used--levels or differences-and how these moments are weighted in the estimation. We propose two changes to the standard model. First, we account for the time-aggregated nature of observed income data. Second, we allow transitory shocks to persist for varying lengths of time. With only one additional parameter, our proposed model consistently recover the parameters of the income process irrespective of the estimation method. To the extent that researchers employ the standard model, we advise special caution with the use of first-difference moments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates and ination are low, as in the current global environment? We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018) who look, at the government spending multiplier in times of low interest rates. If anything, the yield curve tends to predict output growth better in low interest rate environments, though this result is stronger for RGDP than for IP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use historical data and a calibrated model of the world economy to study how a synchronous monetary tightening can amplify cross-border transmission of monetary policy. The empirical analysis shows that historical episodes of synchronous tightening are associated with tighter financial conditions and larger effects on economic activity than asynchronous ones. In the model, a sufficiently large synchronous tightening can disrupt intermediation of credit by global financial intermediaries causing large output losses and an increase in sacrifice ratios, that is, output lost for a given reduction in inflation. We use this framework to show that there are gains from coordination of international monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What drives the dynamics of the racial wealth gap? We answer this question using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium heterogeneous-agents model. Our calibrated model endogenously produces a racial wealth gap matching that observed in recent decades along with key features of the current cross-sectional distribution of wealth, earnings, intergenerational transfers, and race. Our model predicts that equalizing earnings is by far the most important mechanism for permanently closing the racial wealth gap. One-time wealth transfers have only transitory effects unless they address the racial earnings gap, and return gaps only matter when earnings inequality is reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our methodology possesses smaller ex-post aggregate inflation forecast errors relative to forecasts based on conventional survey questions. We ask this question in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 countries, and we show that indirect consumer inflation expectations perform well along several empirical dimensions. Exploiting the geographically detailed, high-frequency variation in the data, we then show that individual experiences matter for inflation expectations, in a nuanced way. For example, age and gender have different effects internationally, while individual inflation and local experiences are generally highly relevant. In an application to gasoline price changes, we identify large effects of experienced gasoline price changes on inflation expectations, characterized by both overreaction and persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Opportunity Atlas (OA) is an innovative data set that ranks neighborhoods according to children's adult outcomes in several domains, including income. Conceptually, outcomes offer new evidence about neighborhood effects when measured in isolation from neighborhood sorting. This paper shows that neighborhood sorting contributes to OA estimates. We document cases in which small sample sizes and changes over time can explain disagreements between OA rankings and those based on contemporaneous variables. Our results suggest caution for interpretations of the OA data set at a granular level, particularly for predictions about the outcomes of black children in high-income neighborhoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses aggregate data to estimate and evaluate a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon (FH) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model commonly used in empirical applications as well as other behavioral NK models. The better fit of the FH model reects that it can induce slow-moving trends in key endogenous variables which deliver substantial persistence in output and ination dynamics. In the FH model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to persistence without resorting to additional features such as habit persistence and price contracts indexed to lagged ination. The parameter estimates imply that the planning horizons of most households and firms are less than two years which considerably dampens the effects of expected future changes of monetary policy on the macroeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diminished sensitivity of inflation to changes in resource utilization that has been observed in many advanced economies over the past several decades is frequently linked to the increase in global economic integration. In this paper, we examine this "globalization" hypothesis using both aggregate U.S. data on measures of inflation and economic slack and a rich panel data set containing producer prices, wages, output, and employment at a narrowly defined industry level. Our results indicate that the rising exposure of the U.S. economy to international trade can indeed help explain a significant fraction of the overall decline in responsiveness of aggregate inflation to fluctuations in economic activity. This flattening of the U.S. Phillips curve is supported strongly by our cross-sectional evidence, which shows that increased trade exposure significantly attenuates the response of inflation to fluctuations in output across industries. Our estimates indicate that the inflation-output tradeoff is about three times larger for low-trade intensity industries compared with their high-trade intensity counterparts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide the first evidence on the role of college networks in the re-employment of displaced workers. An extensive literature examines the consequences of layoffs, but the factors which facilitate re-employment are relatively under-studied. Using administrative data and a cross-cohort design, we find that network connections with actively-hiring employers increase the re-employment rate. This result is driven by re-employment at contact's firms suggesting that a stronger network does not improve worker quality more broadly. These results suggest that college has the potential to improve employment outcomes beyond improved human capital and signaling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine businesses’ price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of around 60 percent, with meaningful heterogeneity across firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on concerns about potential harms to minors on the internet, especially on social media platforms, and discusses various age verification methods used by website operators. Topics include the methods such as self-identification, documentation, and consumer data analysis, along with policy considerations for legislation, potential congressional actions, and trade-offs associated with different verification methods.

Statistical agencies track rental expenditures for use in the national accounts and in consumer price indexes (CPIs). As such, statistical agencies should include late payment fees and nonpayment in rent. In the US context, late payment fees are excluded from the CPI. Ostensibly, nonpayment of rent is included in the US CPI; but its treatment is deficient, and we demonstrate that small variations in nonpayment could lead to large swings in shelter inflation, and might have played a role in the 2009 measured shelter inflation collapse. They didn't: while the national nonpayment incidence is 2-3 percent, in the 1 million plus rent observations in BLS rent microdata from 2000-2016, no nonpayment is recorded. A back-of-theenvelope calculation suggests that, assuming nonpayment undermeasurement continued after 2016, CPI shelter inflation may have been overestimated by about 1 percentage point per month (annualized) in 2020. Late fees and nonpayment are difficult to measure in real time. We offer implementation suggestions that are consistent with CPI procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a dynamic multi-factor copula for use in high dimensional time series applications. A novel feature of our model is that the assignment of individual variables to groups is estimated from the data, rather than being pre-assigned using SIC industry codes, market capitalization ranks, or other ad hoc methods. We adapt the k-means clustering algorithm for use in our application and show that it has excellent finite-sample properties. Applying the new model to returns on 110 US equities, we find around 20 clusters to be optimal. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find that a model with as few as five estimated clusters significantly outperforms an otherwise identical model with 21 clusters formed using two-digit SIC codes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use disaggregated U.S. data and a border discontinuity design to show that more generous unemployment insurance (UI) policies lower bank deposits. We test several channels that could explain this decline and find evidence consistent with households lowering their precautionary savings. Since deposits are the largest and most stable source of funding for banks, the decrease in deposits affects bank lending. Banks that raise deposits in states with generous UI policies squeeze their small business lending. Furthermore, counties that are served by these banks experience a higher unemployment rate and lower wage growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neural Networks (NNs) are essential components of intelligent systems because they produce efficient solutions to problems of overwhelming complexity for conventional computing methods. There are lots of papers showing that NNs can approximate a wide variety of functions, but comparatively very few discuss their limitations. To illustrate the role played by information coding in NN computations we define and study sensitive and robust Boolean functions. We also prove that an exponential large set of functions in the first group are exponentially difficult to compute by multiple-layer perceptrons (hence incomputable by single-layer perceptrons) and a comparatively large set of functions in the second one, but not all, are computable by single-layer perceptrons. This suggests that the success of NNs, or lack of it, are in part determined by properties of the learned data sets. Finally we use polynomial threshold perceptrons to compute all Boolean functions with quantum annealing and present in detail a QUBO computation on the D-Wave Advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The challenge of achieving net zero CO2 emissions will require a significant scaling up of production and international trade of several raw materials which are critical for transforming the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels to one led by renewable energy technologies. This report provides a first joint assessment of data on production, international trade, and export restrictions on such critical raw materials from the OECD's Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials covering the period 2009-2020. It presents data on production and trade concentrations, sheds early light on the impact of export restrictions, and discusses possible directions of further work in this area. The evidence presented suggests that export restrictions may be playing a non-trivial role in international markets for critical raw materials, affecting availability and prices of these materials. OECD countries have been increasingly exposed to the use of export restrictions for critical raw materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial subsidies take on a growing importance in trade discussions. Yet assessing the scope and scale of government interventions in manufacturing remains notoriously difficult due to a persistent lack of reliable and comparable data. With many governments failing to provide sufficient information, attention has increasingly turned to firm-level data as a possible alternative for measuring industrial subsidies. Using this approach, recent OECD work has identified and quantified government support across key industrial sectors and policy instruments. The results show that: (i) the type of support received by firms can differ greatly across sectors; (ii) state enterprises obtain relatively more support and can serve as providers of support to other firms; and (iii) the complexity of supply chains implies that it can be hard to identify the ultimate beneficiaries of government support. These findings have important policy implications in the context of discussions at the WTO and elsewhere as they provide indications as to the possible nature of gaps in trade rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I study how bank relationships affected the timing and geographic distribution of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) lending. Half of banks' PPP loans went to bor- rowers within 2 miles of a branch, mostly driven by relationship lending. Firms near less active lenders shifted to fintechs and other distant lenders, resulting in delays re- ceiving credit but only slightly lower loan volumes. I estimate a structural model to fit the observed relationship between branch distance, bank PPP activity, and origination timing. I find that banks served relationship borrowers 5 to 9 days before other bor- rowers, an effect in line with reduced-form estimates using a sample of PPP borrowers with previous SBA lending relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines international spillovers from unconventional monetary policy (UMP) between the US, the Euro area, the UK and Japan, exploiting the asynchronous timing of monetary policy normalization to shed light on the term structure implications of UMP divergence. Using high frequency futures data to identify monetary policy surprises and controlling for contemporaneous news, I find that spillovers increase during periods of unconventional monetary policy, and that these strengthen in the period of asynchronous policy normalization. Local projections suggest persistent spillovers from the Federal Reserve, whereas other spillovers fade quickly. Through the lens of a shadow rate term structure model (SRTSM), I find that these surprises elicit, domestically and internationally, revisions to both the expected path of short-term interest rates and required risk compensation, with the latter gaining importance at the effective lower bound of interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]