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This paper investigates the possibility of the implementation of Genetic Programming (GP) algorithm on a publicly available COVID-19 data set, in order to obtain mathematical models which could be used for estimation of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases and the estimation of epidemiology curve for specific countries, with a high number of cases, such as China, Italy, Spain, and USA and as well as on the global scale. The conducted investigation shows that the best mathematical models produced for estimating confirmed and deceased cases achieved R2 scores of 0.999, while the models developed for estimation of recovered cases achieved the R2 score of 0.998. The equations generated for confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases were combined in order to estimate the epidemiology curve of specific countries and on the global scale. The estimated epidemiology curve for each country obtained from these equations is almost identical to the real data contained within the data set [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the outbreak of a disease caused by a pathogen with unknown characteristics, the uncertainty of its progression parameters can be reduced by devising methods that, based on rational assumptions, exploit available information to provide actionable insights. In this study, performed a few (~6) weeks into the outbreak of COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2), one of the most important disease parameters, the average time-to-recovery, was calculated using data publicly available on the internet (daily reported cases of confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries), and fed into an algorithm that matches confirmed cases with deaths and recoveries. Unmatched cases were adjusted based on the matched cases calculation. The mean time-to-recovery, calculated from all globally reported cases, was found to be 18.01 days (SD 3.31 days) for the matched cases and 18.29 days (SD 2.73 days) taking into consideration the adjusted unmatched cases as well. The proposed method used limited data and provided experimental results in the same region as clinical studies published several months later. This indicates that the proposed method, combined with expert knowledge and informed calculated assumptions, could provide a meaningful calculated average time-to-recovery figure, which can be used as an evidence-based estimation to support containment and mitigation policy decisions, even at the very early stages of an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) are onboard the same satellite platform NASA TERRA. Both MODIS and ASTER offer routine retrieval of land surface temperatures (LSTs), and the ASTER- and MODIS-retrieved LST products have been used worldwide. Because a large fraction of the earth surface consists of mountainous areas, variations in elevation, terrain slope and aspect angles can cause biases in the retrieved LSTs. However, terrain-induced effects are generally neglected in most satellite retrievals, which may generate discrepancy between ASTER and MODIS LSTs. In this paper, we reported the terrain effects on the LST discrepancy with a case examination over a relief area at the Loess Plateau of China. Results showed that the terrain-induced effects were not major, but nevertheless important for the total LST discrepancy. A large local slope did not necessarily lead to a large LST discrepancy. The angle of emitted radiance was more important than the angle of local slope in generating the LST discrepancy. Specifically, the conventional terrain correction may be unsuitable for densely vegetated areas. The distribution of ASTER-to-MODIS emissivity suggested that the terrain correction was included in the generalized split window (GSW) based approach used to rectify MODIS LSTs. Further study should include the classification-induced uncertainty in emissivity for reliable use of satellite-retrieved LSTs over relief areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]