Search

The highly endangered giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is the world's most widely recognised conservation icon. Population dynamics models can get on track to a healthy population for giant pandas, and assess its development over time. This paper proposes a new way to study population dynamics of giant pandas in captivity by means of membrane computing, a bio-inspired computational paradigm based on processing multisets of objects within a cell structure, following a series of evolution rules. This framework is used to model the intrinsically stochastic real-life evolution processes of giant pandas, based on pedigree data. This is the first attempt to collect and analyse so complete source, and to investigate population dynamics of giant pandas based on them. Pedigree data consisting of the number of giant panda individuals per age are provided by Chengdu Research Base of Giant Panda Breeding of China. A special simulator has been developed to assist in the design and formal verification of the mathematical model presented. Particularly, the model feasibility, effectiveness, soundness and robustness have been validated by the simulator, which also enables decision-making based on the simulation results of conducted virtual experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modelling has been included in many mathematics curricula worldwide, and China's curricula are no exception. The development of modelling competencies has recently been listed among the Chinese mathematics curriculum's six key objectives. However, the manner in which nationwide learning and teaching of modelling should be conducted presents a key challenge to China's schools, most of which are wholly lacking in experience of this practice. In this study we present a thematic analysis of the conceptions of four mathematicians, five mathematics educators and seven mathematics teachers, with regard to the learning and teaching of modelling. The results show that the participants' views of modelling can be categorised and linked to the following theoretical perspectives of modelling: applied, epistemological, educational, pedagogical and conceptual perspectives. Interestingly, the mathematicians and mathematics educators tended towards the atomistic approach to the learning and teaching of modelling, while the mathematics teachers placed greater emphasis on the holistic approach. The mathematicians and mathematics educators stressed student autonomy, while the teachers emphasised teacher demonstration. All participants considered group work to be an appropriate means of conducting modelling learning and teaching. Additionally, some teachers were concerned that modelling could not be incorporated into mathematical teaching and learning if it could not be included in high-stakes examinations. The paper concludes with a discussion on the rationale behind the existence of the various conceptions and the potential insights that may be drawn from these conceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Creativity has been identified as a key characteristic that allows students to adapt smoothly to rapid societal and economic changes in the real world. However, Chinese students appear to perform less well in mathematical problem-solving and problem-posing abilities, which are strongly connected to mathematical creativity. Mathematical modelling has recently been introduced as one of the six core competencies in the Chinese mathematical curriculum and is built on students' ability to solve real-world problems using mathematical means. As mathematical modelling is characterised by openness regarding the understanding of complex real-world problems and the complex relationship between the real world and mathematics, for the strengthening of creativity, mathematical modelling activities seem to be adequate to accomplish this purpose. In this paper, we describe a study with 71 upper secondary school students, 50 pre-service mathematics teachers, and 66 in-service mathematics teachers, based on an extended didactical framework regarding mathematical modelling as a creativity-demanding activity. The results of the study indicate a significant correlation between modelling competencies and creativity aspects. Especially significant correlations between the adequacy of the modelling approaches and the two creativity aspects of usefulness and fluency could be identified, as well as a significant negative correlation between usefulness and originality. The results of the correlational analysis of relationships among the four criteria were not always consistent in the three participant groups. Overall, the results have implications for the promotion of creativity for various expertise groups and demonstrate the dependency of the modelling activities on the mathematical knowledge of the participants and the mathematical topic with which they are dealing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is almost more than a year that earth has faced a severe worldwide problem called COVID-19. In December 2019, the origin of the epidemic was found in China. After that, this contagious virus was reported almost all over the world with different variants. Besides all the healthcare system attempts, quarantine, and vaccination, it is needed to study the dynamical behavior of this disease specifically. One of the practical tools that may help scientists analyze the dynamical behavior of epidemic disease is mathematical models. Accordingly, here, a novel mathematical system is introduced. Also, the complex behavior of this model is investigated considering different dynamical analyses. The results represent that some range of parameters may lead the model to chaotic behavior. Moreover, comparing the two same bifurcation diagrams with different initial conditions reveals that the model has multi-stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a new grey prediction model with quadratic polynomial term. Analytical expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the new model are derived by using grey model technique and mathematical tools. With observations of the confirmed cases, the death cases and the recovered cases from COVID-19 in China at the early stage, the proposed forecasting model is developed. The computational results demonstrate that the new model has higher precision than the other existing prediction models, which show the grey model has high accuracy in the forecasting of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for healthy old-age care is growing rapidly in China. The traditional old-age care model can no longer meet elderly patients' demands for medical care and old-age care. To promote the development of medical care-integrated old-age care, a solution covering multiple aspects is necessary. In the context of the global development of healthy aging, China recently issued many policies to integrate old-age care with medical care, establishing protection for a large number of disabled elderly people. The Integrated Care of Older People (ICOPE) project is an international program developed by the World Health Organization. This paper reviews China's medical and old-age care integration model and the opportunities and challenges in implementing the ICOPE in the context of healthy aging in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial layout of the port industrial zone problem is a core issue in port industrial zone planning, and it directly affects the actual effects of the port industrial zone. Firstly, considering that existing port industrial zone planning lacks in methods of quantitative analysis, this paper constructs a Mathematical model based on multi-objective programming, and the optimal scale of various industries of port industrial zone is obtained. Secondly, the paper takes the maximum dependence degree of port as objective function by using systematic layout planning tools, and solves the spatial layout of the port industrial zone. Finally, by taking Binhai Port industrial zone of China as an example, a port industrial zone spatial layout model is constructed and solved through simulated annealing algorithm. The optimal spatial layout program for Binhai Port industrial zone of China was obtained, which verifies the feasibility and accuracy of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reports new evidence of herding in the Chinese A-type and B-type markets by employing nonparametric kernel regression. We find statistically significant evidence of herding in A-type market under both extreme high and low market returns. Herding in B-type market, which predominantly consists of foreign investors, indicates only weak evidence of herding. We do not find any statistically significant evidence of herding in the pre-2001 sample of B-type market, when only foreign investors could do the trading. Lack of knowledge and experience of local investors may be attributed to the presence of herd behaviour in the Chinese markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a new method to estimate the wave height of a specific return period based on the Hurst rule and a self-affine fractal formula. A detailed description of our proposed model is presented in this paper. We use the proposed model to analyze wave height data recorded along the coast of Chaolian Island from 1963 to 1989. The results show that the performance of our proposed model in estimating design wave heights is superior to traditional models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the performance of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in simulating a winter drought event, based on two different forcing datasets. We ran EC (ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary forcing conditions) and FNL (NCEP-FNL reanalysis data) simulations for the 2008/2009 winter drought event to quantify the impact of any uncertainty in the different initial and lateral boundary forcing data on regional model outputs. The response of the winter mean atmospheric states to the variations in the initial and lateral boundary conditions was investigated on the basis of these simulation results. The spatio-temporal features of precipitation from the EC and FNL runs closely resembled those measured from the Global Summary Of the Day (GSOD) observations, although the EC run data outperformed the FNL run data in both their spatial distribution patterns and precipitation values. The water vapor flux values explain how the differences in the precipitation values between the EC and the FNL runs were generated, whereas temperature values were not sensitive to any changes in forcing data. The model results from these runs also slightly overestimated temperature on both spatial and temporal scales. For the tropospheric atmospheric data recorded at the Fuyang Meteorological Station in Anhui Province, neither the time series nor the statistical analyses showed any evidence of superiority between the two different driver datasets compared with radiosonde data. However, on closer inspection, the influence of different initial and lateral boundary conditions on modeling the tropospheric atmospheric data appeared to be evident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The serious situation of China coal mine safety has caused great concern in China. Gas accidents have been the subject of statistical analysis studies in some of the literature, and little research has focused on societal risk and tolerability criteria. This paper reports the results of a preliminary study of societal risk and tolerability criteria of gas accidents in China. This analysis is based on a study of 10 years of gas accidents statistical data from 2004 to 2013. After applying hierarchical cluster analysis, eight sets of data are available. Subsequently, regression analysis is used to establish F-N curves for gas accidents; these F-N curves are then revised to reflect the practical situation in China. Moreover, gas accidents' risk tolerability criteria are decided according to the ALARP principle. This study reveals that tolerability criteria in developed countries are stricter than those in China. The findings of the paper give an in-depth look at the severity of gas accidents and may contribute to the improvement of the safety conditions of China's coal industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice disasters occurred frequently in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach, and safety of the Yellow River, people's lives and property security are seriously threatened. In this paper ice control condition in the Upper Yellow River is introduced for the first time to clarify the relationship between flow routing and ice control security. Based on the feature of flow routing during ice control period, the improved method for different reaches and periods is proposed in this paper. Three sections in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Upper Yellow River are selected as research objects. The 10-day flow data of sections over the past 20 years are used for parameter calibration, training and verification. To investigate the method performance, we applied a number of criteria factors (Relative Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Correlation Coefficient) and two methods, conventional method and improved one. The results demonstrate that the improved method which considers ice impact factors such as data on freeze-up and break-up, channel storage increment, temperature, has consistently superior performance in comparison with the conventional method. The accuracy and superiority of the improved method are verified by comparative methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although mathematical models (e.g., DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) provide a powerful tool to study regional carbon budget, it is still difficult to obtain accurate simulation results because there exists large uncertainties in modeling regional carbon budget. Through the investigation on the sensitivity of model output parameters to the input parameters, sensitivity analysis (SA) has been proved to be able to identify the key sources of uncertainties and be helpful to reduce the model uncertainties. However, some input parameters with discrete values (e.g., land use type and soil type) and the regional effect of the sensitive parameters were rarely examined in SA. In this paper, taking the Zoige Plateau as a case area, we combined the one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) with Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) to conduct a SA of DNDC for simulating the regional carbon budget, including Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), autotrophic respiration (Ra), soil microbial heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and ecosystem respiration (Re). The result showed that the combination of OAT and EFAST could test the contribution of the input parameters with discrete values to the output parameters. In DNDC model, land use type and soil type had a significant impact on the regional carbon budget of the Zoige Plateau, and daily temperature was also confirmed to be one of the most important parameters for carbon budget. For the other input parameters, with the change of land use type or soil type at regional scale, the sensitive parameters of carbon budget would vary accordingly. The SA results would provide scientific evidence to optimize DNDC model and they suggested that we should pay attention to the spatial/temporal effect of SA and try to use the appropriate data in simulation of the regional carbon budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood mitigation should deal with those most sensitive flooding elements to very efficiently release risks and reduce losses. Present the most concerns of flood control are peak level or peak discharge which, however, may not always be the most sensitive flooding element. Actually, along with human activities and climate change, floods bring threats to bear on human beings appear in not only peak level and peak discharge, but also other elements like maximum 24-h volume and maximum 72-h volume. In this paper, by collecting six key flooding intensity indices (elements), a catastrophe progression approach based sensitivity analysis algorithm model is developed to identify the indices that mostly control over the flood intensity. The indices sensitivity is determined through a selected case study in the Wujiang River, South China, based on half a century of flow record. The model results indicate that there is no evident relationship of interplay among the index sensitivities, but the variability of the index sensitivity is closely related to the index variability and the index sensitivity increases with the decrease of index value. It is found that peak discharge is not the most influential flooding factor as is generally thought in this case. The sensitivity value of the maximum 24-h volume is the greatest influential factor among all the other indices, indicating that this index plays a leading role in the flood threat of the Wujiang River, South China. It is inferred that, for the purpose of flood warning and mitigation, the peak flood discharge is not always the most sensitive and dominant index as opposed to the others, depending on the sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a bi-level optimization waste load allocation programming model under a fuzzy random environment to assist integrated river pollution control. Taking account of the leader-follower decision-making in the water function zones framework, the proposed approach examines the decision making feedback relationships and conflict coordination between the river basin authority and the regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) based on the Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium strategy. In the pollution control system, the river basin authority, as the leader, allocates equitable emissions rights to different subareas, and the then subarea EPA, as the followers, reallocates the limited resources to various functional zones to minimize pollution costs. This research also considers the uncertainty in the water pollution management, and the uncertain input information is expressed as fuzzy random variables. The proposed methodological approach is then applied to Tuojiang River in China and the bi-level linear programming model solutions are achieved using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition. Based on the waste load allocation scheme results and various scenario analyses and discussion, some operational policies are proposed to assist decision makers (DMs) cope with waste load allocation problem for integrated river pollution control for the overall benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turfy soil is a kind of special soil accumulated by undecomposed plants which is detrimental to the engineering. In this paper, particular identified patterns for the turfy soil in the northeast of China was raised including the method of extracting threshold value, block analysis and fuzzy evaluation. And field investigations were undertaken to verify the accuracy of identification by remote sensing, and the correlation of field result and remote sensing result was summarized so as to analyze the regularities of distribution and evolutionary mechanism of turfy soil. The result shows that the combination of extracting threshold value, block analysis and fuzzy evaluation are effective methods to predict the distribution of the turfy soil; with the correlation of membership degree and field result, we can analyze the evolutionary mechanism of turfy soil affected by both nature factors and human activities, which is beneficial for the preservation of the turfy soil and also shows significant environmental ecological benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to explore the displacement evolution of a creeping landslide stabilized with piles, an analytical model is proposed in this paper. Mechanical behaviors of the sliding surface and the sliding layer in the model are assumed to be visco-plastic and elastic, respectively. Equilibrium of a soil slice in the sliding layer is applied to establish the differential equation, which can be solved as a non-homogeneous heat equation. The displacement of the soil around stabilizing pile is considered as boundary condition at the bottom of the sliding layer, and the stress applied on the upper boundary of the sliding layer is assumed to be a constant. Therefore, the displacement solution of the sliding layer was obtained by solving the non-homogeneous heat equation with the mixed boundary conditions. Subsequently, the analytical model is validated against the monitoring data from Hongyan landslide in China. A good agreement between the measured displacement and the calculated displacement by the proposed model is obtained. Finally, the pile-stabilized region with respect to time, influences of stress distribution in the sliding layer, and the water table on the proposed model are discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Porter hypothesis states that environmental regulation may lead to win-win opportunities, that is, improve the productivity and reduce the undesirable output simultaneously. Based on directional distance function, this paper proposes a novel dynamic activity analysis model to forecast the possibilities of win-win development in Chinese industry between 2011 and 2050. The consistent bootstrap estimation procedures are also developed for statistical inference of the point forecasts. The evidence reveals that the appropriate energy-saving and emission-abating regulation will significantly result in both the net growth of potential output and the increasing growth of total factor productivity for most industrial sectors in a statistical sense. This favors Porter hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A technically transparent and freely available reference sample set for validation of global land cover mapping was recently established to assess the accuracies of land cover maps with multiple resolutions. This sample set can be used to estimate areas because of its equal-area hexagon-based sampling design. The capabilities of these sample set-based area estimates for cropland were investigated in this paper. A 30-m cropland map for China was consolidated using three thematic maps (cropland, forest and wetland maps) to reduce confusion between cropland and forest/wetland. We compared three area estimation methods using the sample set and the 30 m cropland map. The methods investigated were: (1) pixel counting from a complete coverage map, (2) direct estimation from reference samples, and (3) model-assisted estimation combining the map with samples. Our results indicated that all three methods produced generally consistent estimates which agreed with cropland area measured from an independent national land use dataset. Areas estimated from the reference sample set were less biased by comparing with a National Land Use Dataset of China (NLUD-C). This study indicates that the reference sample set can be used as an alternative source to estimate areas over large regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xiluodu hydropower station is located on the Jinsha River, the upper course of the Yangtze River, and is the third largest hydropower station in the world. In May 2013, impoundment of the Xiluodu Reservoir started and preliminarily operation began, and the reservoir area was subject to frequent landslides and collapses. On 23rd July 2013, Huangping landslide, with a volume of 20 × 10m, slid into the Xiluodu Reservoir and generated an impulse water wave that killed 12 people on the opposite bank. The reservoir water level will fluctuate by 60 m each year, between the elevations of 540 and 600 m, so any impulse wave generated by a landslide in the reservoir is a major concern in the preliminary impoundment phase. Ganhaizi landslide is the biggest landslide in Xiluodu Reservoir, with a volume of about 7,800 × 10 m. This landslide is only 14 km upstream from the Xiluodu Dam. In particular, the landslide deformation has obviously intensified after impounding. This paper analyzes the terrain and deformation features of Ganhaizi landslide, and we propose that sliding on the Ganhaizi slope may occur at the front part of the landslide. The front part of landslide has a volume of around 300 × 10m; the elevation of the barycenter of this part is 510 m. The sliding mass is thus largely underwater, and can pose a threat mainly in the form of surges. Based on the underwater landslide terrain in the mountain reservoir area, the authors have modified the seabed landslide-generated surge source model of Grilli and Watts () to form an initial source model for an underwater landslide-generated surge. Using this model, the authors predicted possible surge disasters that can be caused by a Ganhaizi landslide at both the dead water level of 540 m and the normal water level of 600 m in Xiluodu Reservoir. The surge disaster might mainly strike the area within 5 km along the river channel both upstream and downstream of the landslide area, but generally poses no threat to Xiluodu Dam. This paper aims to provide technical support for the safety of Xiluodu Dam and the reservoir area. The newly established underwater landslide-generated surge initial source model for mountain reservoir areas may serve as reference for calculation of underwater landslide in other reservoir areas around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that soil erosion at the watershed scale is the result of interactions between various factors. Among these environmental factors, vegetation is the most important and plays a major role in the soil erosion process. The impact of fractional vegetation cover change (FVCC) on soil erosion in non-contributing areas is a heavily discussed topic. In this paper, the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in 2002 and 2005 was calculated by using a backpropagation neural network based on remote sensing (RS) data. Then the impacts of FVCC on sediment loads at the outlets of two Miyun reservoir sub-basins were evaluated by integrating RS and geographic information system with statistical analysis. The Miyun reservoir basin (MRB) is characterized by hilly and mountainous topographies and seasonal rainy weather. The primary goal of this paper is to gain a better understanding of FVCC, its driving forces, and its impact on regional soil erosion. We discuss spatiotemporal variations in precipitation and soil erosion, identify which factors contribute to those variations, analyze the influences of FVCC on climate change and human activities and, finally, conclude that changes in FVC and climate regimes are primary factors for soil erosion in MRB. We also discuss how sediment loads may be used to quantitatively separate biophysical and anthropogenic influences and to identify critical thresholds that might have dramatic consequences for the watershed ecosystem. These findings should be quite helpful for sensible watershed development and management planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 is reported to have been brought under control in China. To understand the COVID-19 outbreak in China and provide potential lessons for other parts of the world, in this study we apply a mathematical model with multiple datasets to estimate the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the severity of the illness associated with the infection, and how both were affected by unprecedented control measures. Our analyses show that before 19th January 2020, 3.5% (95% CI 1.7–8.3%) of infected people were detected; this percentage increased to 36.6% (95% CI 26.1–55.4%) thereafter. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 2.33 (95% CI 1.96–3.69) before 8th February 2020; then the effective reproduction number dropped to 0.04(95% CI 0.01–0.10). This estimation also indicates that control measures taken since 23rd January 2020 affected the transmissibility about 2 weeks after they were introduced. The confirmed case fatality rate is estimated at 9.6% (95% CI 8.1–11.4%) before 15 February 2020, and then it reduced to 0.7% (95% CI 0.4–1.0%). This shows that SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly transmissible but may be less severe than SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV. We found that at the early stage, the majority of R0 comes from undetected infectious people. This implies that successful control in China was achieved through reducing the contact rates among people in the general population and increasing the rate of detection and quarantine of the infectious cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to verify how social network affects entrepreneurial intentions, a theoretical model is developed between network, entrepreneurial desirability, entrepreneurial feasibility and entrepreneurial intentions. As for empirical studies, a structural equation model is developed and several hypotheses are tested based on Chinese College-graduate Village Officials' samples. Results showed that three social network dimensions, which are network size, network heterogeneity and properties of top node, affect entrepreneurial intentions significantly. Specifically, entrepreneurial intention is negatively correlated with properties of top node and the size of the social network; significant positive correlation is found between heterogeneity of social network and entrepreneurial intentions. Besides, entrepreneurial desirability and entrepreneurial feasibility are two mediators between network heterogeneity and entrepreneurial intension. This paper has also found that social networks sometimes may become an obstacle for College-graduate Village Official to start a business. The theoretical and practical implications for policymaker of the study's findings are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a highly robust numerical model to simulate water-sediment mixture flows in practical field studies. The model is composed of an integrated algorithm combining the finite element characteristic splitting method and finite volume Godunov scheme. The former maintains the generality and stability of the numerical algorithm, while the latter ensures the conservation and accuracy of the model. The proposed model is first tested by three benchmark flow problems including flood flow in a pool, dam break over a mobile bed, and morphological process of a dam removal. Then, the model is applied to two practical field case studies to demonstrate its potential engineering values. The first case study is related to the damage of the Polo Hydropower Plant by a sediment flooding event. The second one is the investigation of a well-known 2013 dam-break flooding that happened in the Tangjiashan Mountain. It is shown that the simulated water and sediment flows are in good agreement with the documented laboratory and field data, and the numerical model is capable of providing useful information on the flow predictions, thus making further engineering measures to mitigate these disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural tourism in China, has undergone a rapid development in the last three decades. It is an emerging and effective catalyst that promotes industrial restructuring, agricultural development and the upgrading of rural areas. However, there remains little understanding about the core issues of rural tourism in China: the exact connotation, the principles, the development models and the future directions. This review paper identifies the key issues based on literature analysis, national statistics and press reports to form a general picture of the past, the current and the future prospects of China's rural tourism. The paper firstly addresses the definition, content and principles of rural tourism, and then provides an overview and brief evaluation of the progress and the current development models in China. Finally, based on the analysis of the experiences and problems, the authors sum up with five pathways of the future development of China's rural tourism from the perspective of rural tourism resources, product, market and promotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, a society long characterized by traditional Confucianism and the practice of filial piety, is undergoing dramatic socioeconomic development and erosion of traditions. In this rapidly changing context, the motives behind rural parental bequests have not been well studied. This paper draws on a survey conducted in rural Anhui province of China and uses hierarchical linear models to examine whether three kinds of support from children are associated with older parents' bequest motives. We find that while instrumental support accords with an exchange model of motivation, financial transfer is consistent with an altruistic motivation for parental bequest plans. Offspring gender is strongly associated with parental planning of bequests; family division is a strong correlate of parents' bequest plan and reflects exchange motivation. These findings have important implications for research on traditional culture and an evolving social security system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower economic benefit. However, a strong desire to develop lower suitable land areas will bring not only a higher economic benefit but also higher risks of violating environmental and ecological constraints. The land manager should make decisions through trade-offs between economic objectives and environmental/ecological objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applied a HIMS (hydroinformatic modeling system) model to simulate streamflow in the Luanhe River Basin. This model was compared with SIMHYD and XAJ models for eight sub-basins of the Luanhe River. The results showed HIMS model performed better than SIMHYD and XAJ models, in these areas. We then investigated the streamflow response to climate changes in the different sub-basins. Twenty hypothetical climate change scenarios (perturbed temperatures and precipitation) were used to test the sensitivity of HIMS model simulated annual and mean monthly streamflow. Our results demonstrated that: (i) the annual streamflow was positively related to precipitation, and there was a negative relationship between streamflow and temperature for all the eight sub-basins; (ii) in all sub-basins, the relationship of annual streamflow change to precipitation change was highly non-linear, but the relationship of annual streamflow change with temperature change was approximately linear; (iii) the annual streamflow response to precipitation change was more sensitive when increasing than decreasing; (iv) the annual streamflow response to climate change was more sensitive in the Xingzhouhe River sub-basin, followed by the Wuliehe River sub-basin, and the Sahe River sub-basin was least sensitive; (iv) there were few differences in inner-streamflow response to climate change in the Laoniuhe, Yimatuhe, and Yixunhe Rivers. But for other rivers, when the temperature changed, larger streamflow differences happened in winter and summer; when the precipitation decreased or was unchanged, the larger differences happened in winter months, and when the precipitation increased, larger differences happened in winter and summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with key factors influencing surface borehole gas drainage. Herein, the surface borehole drilled through the overburden of gobs, which was commonly operated in China, has been investigated. By building a mathematical model, the literature probed into the issue that how such factors as permeability coefficient and pressure of coal seams affected the flow of pure methane under standard conditions. The results indicated that a key factor was the distance between mining face and borehole (reflecting the gas permeability coefficients of overlying coal seams and gobs). The data measured from surface gas drainage practice at Wulan Coal Mine verified the conclusions of the theoretical research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall depth (or intensity) of the same frequency should follow a non-decreasing relationship with rainfall duration. However, due to the use of finite samples and sampling error, rainfall frequency analysis could yield rainfall intensity (depth)–frequency (IDF, DDF) curves of different durations that might intersect among them. Results of this kind violate physical reality and it is more likely to occur when rainfall record length gets shorter. To ensure the compliance of the physical reality, this paper applied the scale-invariant approach, in conjunction with constrained regression analysis, to circumvent intersections in rainfall IDF or DDF curves. Rainfall data of various durations at rain gauge in Hong Kong are used to demonstrate the procedure. Numerical investigation indicates that the proposed procedure yields more reasonable results than those based on the conventional frequency analysis, especially when only a small sample of data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, 28 aftershock sequences are selected, which are distributed in different areas including north China, southwest of China, northwest of China, Taiwan area, Turkey and Greece. In order to investigate the characteristics of these sequences along with different temporal and spatial coordinates, each sequence has been divided into dozens of segments called ``sub-sequences''. The ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) model is applied to each ``sub-sequence'', and therefore the vectors of parameters of ETAS could be evaluated. Another model named LR (Logistic Regression) model is used to seek the correlate relation between the parameters of ETAS applied to every earthquake ``sub-sequence'' and seismicity. All the analyses and estimations imply that the characteristic of decay of aftershock sequences in different temporal and spatial domains seems to be characterized by the parameters of the ETAS model applied to some aftershock sequences or ``sub-sequences'', and there are some proportional correlate relations between the evaluation of LR model and the occurrence probability of the succeeding strong seismic energy release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A contingent valuation method is used in this paper to compare Chinese and Japanese consumers’ preferences and willingness to pay for non-GM vegetable oil. An often ignored issue—the scale factor in a discrete choice model—is explicitly considered, and parameter equality for different data sets is formally tested before reaching a conclusion. Results indicate that in these two countries consumers’ attitude factors and demographic traits have significantly different effects on their purchase intentions, and on average, Japanese consumers are willing to pay a much higher premium for non-GM vegetable oil than Chinese consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Withdrawal of groundwater can dry up springs. It is, however, often difficult to determine the exact causes for the depletion of spring flow by the traditional methods. A 3-D geological model is presented in this paper to explore the groundwater flow conditions in the aquifers that feed springs. Because of the various geological data in spring areas, a date integration technique is adopted to ensure the accuracy of the model. This model is implemented in the spring protection program in Jinan City, China, and the reasons for the drying up of the springs in the city are studied. The proposed model would be particularly helpful in the spring protection, and the appropriate application of the model would result in economic and social benefits of the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study primarily uses Berry's theoretical model to examine national identity, acculturation (to South Korea), ethnic identity, and enculturation (to country-of-origin), and how they are linked to immigrant adolescents' aggression and depression in South Korea. Data were collected from 120 immigrant youths (i.e., those born in South Korea and those born in their country-of-origin) in eight middle schools. Analyses include multivariate regression and cluster analyses. Findings indicate that South Korean identity (m = 48, F = 77.0, p <.001), acculturation to South Korean culture (m = 44.9, F = 52.3, p <.01), and mother's Korean proficiency (m = 3.6, F = 10.9, p <.001) were higher among Korea-born adolescents. Enculturation (m = 35.5, F = 13.7, p <.001) and depression (m = 36.4, F = 15.3, p <.001) were higher among foreign-born adolescents. Aggression (r = −.26, p <.01) and depression (r = −.46, p <.01) were lower among native-born Korean adolescents. South Korean identity (B = −.27, p =.02) and acculturation (B = −.28, p =.01) were negatively associated with aggression. South Korean identity (B = −.22, p =.04), acculturation (B = −.21, p =.03), and ethnic identity (B = −.17, p =.02) were negatively associated with depression. Integration youth (M = 12.7) and assimilation youth (M = 11.5) reported lower aggression than marginalization youth (M = 15.8, F = 5.48, p <.01). Assimilation type had better outcomes than separation and marginalization types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rivers in the Liaohe River Estuary area have been seriously polluted by discharges of wastewater containing petroleum pollutants and nutrients. In this paper, The Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model (QUAL2K) and its revised model as well as One-dimensional Tide Mean Model (1D model) were applied to predict and assess the water quality of the tidal river reach of the Liaohe River Estuary. Dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen (NH-N) and total phosphorus (TP) were chosen as water quality indices in the two model simulations. The modelled results show that the major reasons for degraded rivers remain petroleum and non-point source pollution. Tidal water also has a critical effect on the variation of water quality. The sensitivity analysis identifies that flow rate, point load and diffuse load are the most sensitive parameters for the four water quality indices in the revised QUAL2K simulation. Uncertainty analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation gives the probability distribution of the four water quality indices at two locations (6.50 km and 44.84 km from the river mouth). The statistical outcomes indicate that the observed data fall within the 90% confidence intervals at all sites measured, and show that the revised QUAL2K gives better results in simulating the water quality of a tidal river. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xiamen Bay in South China has experienced extensive coastal exploitation since the 1950s, resulting in some severe environmental problems. Local authorities now have completed or are implementing many environmental restoration projects. Evaluating the cumulative impact of exploitation and restoration activities on the environment is a complicated multi-disciplinary problem. However, hydrodynamic changes in the bay caused by such coastal projects can be characterized directly and definitively through numerical modeling. This paper assesses the cumulative effect of coastal projects on the hydrodynamic setting using a high-resolution numerical modeling method that makes use of tidal current speeds and the tidal prism as two hydrodynamic indices. Changes in tidal velocity and the characteristics of the tidal prism show that hydrodynamic conditions have declined from 1938 to 2007 in the full-tide area. The tidal current speed and tidal prism have decreased by 40% in the western part of the bay and 20% in the eastern part of the bay. Because of the linear relationship between tidal prism and area, the degraded hydrodynamic conditions are anticipated to be restored to 1972 levels following the completion of current and proposed restoration projects, i.e. 33% and 15% decrease in the hydrodynamic conditions of 1938 for the western and eastern parts of the bay, respectively. The results indicate that hydrodynamic conditions can be restored to some extent with the implementation of a sustainable coastal development plan, although a full reversal of conditions is not possible. To fully assess the environmental changes in a region, more indices, e.g., water quality and ecosystem parameters, should be considered in future evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Magnetic anomalies are often disturbed by the magnetization direction, so we can't directly use the original magnetic anomaly to estimate the exact location and geometry of the source. The 2D analytic signal is insensitive to magnetization direction. In this paper, we present an automatic method based on the analytic signal horizontal and vertical derivatives to interpret the magnetic anomaly. We derive a linear equation using the analytic signal properties and we obtain the 2D magnetic body location parameters without giving a priori information. Then we compute the source structural index (expressing the geometry) by the estimated location parameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on synthetic magnetic anomalies with noise. For different models, the proposed technique can both successfully estimate the location parameters and the structural index of the sources and is insensitive to noise. Lastly, we apply it to real magnetic anomalies from China and obtain the distribution of unexploited iron ore. The inversion results are consistent with the parameters of known ore bodies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the standardized anomalies of land surface temperature (LST) retrieved from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) vertically polarized 37 GHz ( $T^v_{B,37~{\rm GHz}}$) brightness temperature over the Tibetan Plateau for the period 1987 to 2008. A radiative transfer model is used to derive LST from SSM/I $T^v_{Bv,37~{\rm GHz}}$, which is calibrated and validated using time series of field measured soil surface temperatures. Additional Plateau-scale verification is performed with monthly LST products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Noah land surface model and air temperature measured by Chinese Meteorological Administration. Trend analysis shows that the annual and monthly standardized anomalies are increasing at an averaged rate of 0.5 decade. The highest positive trends are noted over the central part of the Plateau, which is on average 0.80 decade with a maximum of 1.44 decade. Conversely, a negative trend in the anomalies is found for the Taklamakan desert and the Himalayan foothills with a rate of −0.27 decade and reaching a maximum of −1.4 decade. In addition, we find that LST anomaly trends on the Plateau are seasonally dependent and increase with the elevation. These observed trends are in agreement with previous studies conducted with in-situ measurements, which demonstrates the use of long-term earth observation programmes for climate studies as has also been articulated in the 2007 IPCC report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change simulation for large-scale regions (i.e. provincial regions or countries) is very useful for many global studies. Such simulation, however, is affected by computational capability of general computers. This paper proposes a method to implement cellular automata (CA) for land use change simulation based on graphics processing units (GPUs). This method can be applied to large-scale land-use change simulations by combining the latest GPU high-performance computing technology and CA. We carried out the experiments by simulating land-use change processes at a provincial scale. This involves a lot of sophisticated techniques, such as model mapping, and computational procedure of GPU-CA model. This proposed model has been validated by land-use change simulation in Guangdong Province, China. The comparison indicates that the GPU-CA model is faster than traditional CA by 30 times. Such improvement is crucial for land-use change simulations in provincial regions and countries. The outputs of the simulation can be further used to provide information to other global change models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the lower parts of oil reservoirs Chang 9 and Chang 10 of the Yanchang Formation are oil-bearing layers newly found in oil exploration in the Ordos Basin. Based on GC, GC-MS analyses of saturated hydrocarbons from crude oils and source rocks, reservoir fluid inclusions and BasinMod, the origin of crude oils, accumulation period and accumulation models are discussed in combination with other petroleum geology data in this paper. The result shows that (1) there are two different types of crude oils in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Longdong and Jiyuan regions: crude oils of type I(Well D86, Well A44, Well A75, Well B227, Well X62 and Well Z150) are mainly derived from the Chang 7 source rocks (including mudstones and shales) and distributed in the Jiyuan and Longdong regions; those of type II(Well Z14 and Well Y427), are distributed in the Longdong region, which are derived from the Chang 9 source rocks. Crude oils from oil reservoir Chang 10 in the Shanbei region are mainly derived from the Chang-9 source rocks; (2) there are two phases of hydrocarbon filling in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Jiyuan and Longdong regions and oil reservoir Chang 10 in the Shanbei region: The first phase started at the early stage of Jz. The process of hydrocarbon filling was discontinuous in the Late Jurassic, because of the tectonic-thermal event in the Ordos Basin. The second phase was the main accumulation period, and hydrocarbons began to accumulate from the late stage of Ja to the middle-late of K, mainly at the middle-late stage of K; (3) there exist two types of accumulation models in oil reservoirs Chang 9 and Chang 10 of the Yanchang Formation: source rocks of the reservoirs in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Jiyuan region and oil reservoir Chang 10 in the Shanbei region, the mixed type of reservoirs on the lateral side of source rocks and source rocks of the reservoirs in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Longdong region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been generally accepted when estimating sedimentation rates using the Cs dating method that the position of the Cs maximum in a sediment profile represents the year 1963. In this paper we validated this approach by developing a model in which the annual Cs global fallout flux for the Yangtze River estuary was established on the basis of the Tokyo flux corrected for precipitation rates observed in Shanghai. As the Cs maxima in the sediment deposition profiles depend on the sedimentation rates, the sub-sampling intervals were calculated accordingly. Higher measured than the calculated values were found in some cores, what may be due to fluctuating sedimentation rates and an additional deposition of Cs from land-based sources. The study provides useful information on the reliability of the measured Cs maxima in sediment profiles frequently used for dating of sediments in marine (coastal regions, open seas) as well as in terrestrial (lakes) environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the scale, composition and technique effects of trade-related carbon emissions in China (mainland) from 1987 to 2007. The initial findings indicate that the increasing magnitude of China's trade, both in terms of the carbon emissions embodied in exports and the carbon emissions avoided via imports, had large-scale effects during the whole period. The technique effect caused by changes in input mix, sector energy intensity, fuel mix and carbon coefficients effectively offset part of the scale effect during the entire period but failed to do so during some sub-periods. Changes in trade composition caused a relative small increase in the carbon emissions created by exports but a relative small decrease in the carbon emissions avoided via imports during the whole period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Bulletin of Engineering Geology & the Environment is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, change-points in time series of annual extremes in temperature and precipitation in the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed with the CUSUM test. The data cover the period 1961-2007 for 192 meteorological stations. Annual indicators are analyzed: mean temperature, maximum temperature, warm days, total precipitation, 5-day maximum precipitation, and dry days. Significant change-points (1986/87, 1997/98, 1968/69, and 2003/04) are detected in the time series of most of the indicators. The change-point in 1986/87 is investigated in more detail. Most stations with this change-point in temperature indicators are located in the eastern and coastal areas of the basin. Stations with this change-point in dry days are located in the western area. The means and trends of the temperature indicators increase in the entire basin after 1986/87. The highest magnitudes can be found at the coast and delta. Decreasing (increasing) tendencies in total and 5-day maximum precipitation (dry days) are mostly observed in the western and central regions. The detected change-points can be explained by changes in the indices of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon as well as by change-points in wind directions. In years when the indices simultaneously increase and decrease (indices taking reverse directions to negative and positive) higher annual temperatures and lower annual precipitation occur in the Zhujiang River Basin. The high station density and data quality are very useful for spatially assessing change-points of climatic extreme events. The relation of the change points to large-scale oscillation can provide valuable data for planning adaptation measures against climate risks, e.g. for flood control, disaster preparedness, and water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirty-five surface sediment samples collected from three mangroves in Shantou coastal zone, China in 2007 were analyzed for a suite of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Two mathematical models were used to determine the profiles and relative contributions of PAH sources to the mangroves. The two models are principal component analyses (PCA) with multiple linear regression analysis (MLR) and positive matrix factorization (PMF). Both models identified five factors and gave excellent correlation coefficients between predicted and measured levels of 16 PAH compounds, but the results had some differences. The PAH contribution rate attributed to vehicular emission sources identified by PCA-MLR was 37.20%, but the rate identified by PMF was only 12.37%. The main sources identified by PCA-MLR were combination of biomass/coal combustion and vehicular emissions, whereas the main source identified by PMF was only biomass/coal combustion. The PMF analysis was the preferred model for the paper data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) in 1990 and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) in 1991, China's stock markets have expanded rapidly. Although this rapid growth has attracted considerable academic interest, few studies have examined the ability of conventional financial models to predict the share price movements of Chinese stock. This gap in the literature is significant, given the volatility of the Chinese stock markets and the added risk that arises from the Chinese legal and regulatory environment. In this paper we address this research gap by examining the predictive ability of several well-established forecasting models, including dynamic versions of a single-factor CAPM-based model and Fama and French's three-factor model. In addition, we compare the forecasting ability of each of these models with that of an artificial neural network (ANN) model that contains the same predictor variables but relaxes the assumption of model linearity. Surprisingly, we find no statistical differences in the forecasting accuracy of the CAPM and three-factor model, a result that may reflect the emerging nature of the Chinese stock markets. We also find that each ANN model outperforms the corresponding linear model, indicating that neural networks may be a useful tool for stock price prediction in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Theoretical frameworks for preventing work disability have evolved over the last decade and various experimental models have been tested in occupational rehabilitation settings. The successful application and uptake of the most recent research evidence in rehabilitation practices depend on a complex interplay of the decisions of multi-stakeholders, including their perceptions of the evidence, a proper regulatory framework for injury prevention, compensation and disability management; as well as the cultural and socioeconomic factors unique to each country (social context). This paper summarizes the scope of the work disability prevention field and describes the contextual barriers and support mechanisms for implementing evidence-based practices for disability prevention in China's national rehabilitation system. Methods Expert opinions and relevant publications in the field were reasoned around key constructs of a translational model used to identify potential barriers and support platforms for research uptake in China. Results A crucial component of experimental models for disability prevention is to promote well-coordinated return to work actions centred in the workplace. Potential barriers and support mechanisms for implementing this and other evidence-based recommendations in China are described. Conclusions The complexity of implementing a system-wide disability prevention model in a country as large and diverse as China is well-recognized. Improved efforts are thus required for international knowledge-sharing that can empower greater research utilization of effective disability prevention methods in China. The development of well-connected communities of practice might be a helpful strategy for enhancing stakeholders' perceptions, attitudes and collaborative efforts towards locally relevant and cultural sensitive solutions to work disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]