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The South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and withdrawal have critical impacts on the climate of East Asia. However, using different reanalysis data may lead to the uncertainty of the SCSSM. This study uses reanalysis datasets including JRA‐55, ERA5, NCEP‐NCAR NCEP‐1 and NCEP‐DOE NCEP‐2 to calculate onset and withdrawal dates and index of SCSSM from 1991 to 2020, analyses the uncertainty and figures out the possible reasons. Results reveal that the four reanalysis datasets have obvious uncertainty in calculating the withdrawal date of SCSSM, with the deviation being up to 3.4 pentads. Further analysis shows that large differences in thermal conditions and lead to the uncertainties. From the perspective of precipitation, Greater uncertainty exists in the relationship between monsoon retreat and September–October precipitation, NCEP1 and NCEP2 datasets show weak correlation in southern China and Indonesia. Moreover, the uncertainty can be also found in the correlations of SCSSM with global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. JRA‐55 and ERA5 show a strong correlation of with SST in several areas, and exhibit a distinct Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) mode with monsoon onset, while NCEP‐1 and NCEP‐2 have a weaker correlation with SST anomalies than JRA‐55 or ERA5. Comparing multiple factors comprehensively, this paper concludes that JRA‐55 may be more representative in the monsoon study, followed by ERA data. In short, depending on the specific research questions, researchers can choose appropriate data sources to study the SCSSM based on the different aspects and the uncertainty also deserve our special attention when selecting the reanalysis datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five regional climate models (RCMs)—CCLM, RegCM, HadGEM3‐RA, SNURCM and WRF—participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA) Phase 2 project are evaluated for their ability to simulate spatiotemporal variability in Asian summer precipitation. For this purpose, two dynamical downscaling sets, experiments forced by ERA‐Interim reanalysis data (reproduction experiment) and historical data from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) (historical experiment) are analysed. The horizontal resolution of the downscaled results is 25 km, and the analysis period is from 1981 to 2005 (25 years). The RCMs show reasonable performance in simulating the spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation in CORDEX‐EA Phase 2 domain. To assess spatiotemporal patterns in Asian precipitation, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is used. In the first mode representing seasonal variations, the model ensemble results of both the reproduction experiment (Rep_ENS) and the historical experiment (His_ENS) simulate the peak times, location of precipitation and progression of the monsoons in Asia reasonably. Their features are greatly influenced by the moisture flux, indicating that the relation between precipitation and 850 hPa moisture flux is depicted well by RCM ensembles. In the second mode, which represents intraseasonal variations, the Rep_ENS depicts the western North Pacific summer monsoon break (WNPSM break) phenomenon similar to the observation. Although the His_ENS simulates the WNPSM break later than the observation, it does present the intraseasonal variation in the East Asian summer monsoon region. Based on these results, the five RCM ensemble results show the ability to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of summer precipitation in CORDEX‐EA Phase 2 domain, as well as added value from dynamical downscaling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early winter of 2020/2021, East Asia experienced two extreme cold events (ECEs), during which a number of national stations in China reached the standard of ECE or broke records. The underlying dynamical processes of these record‐breaking ECEs are investigated using Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 reanalysis dataset. Results show that these ECEs were closely related to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. During 29 December, 2020–1 January, 2021 (the first ECE), the tropospheric polar vortex migrated to mid‐latitude East Asia and more planetary wave propagated into the stratosphere. Then, the stratospheric polar vortex weakened and extended to mid‐latitude East Asia from 2 January. And, a SSW event occurred on 5 January. The easterly zonal wind accompanied by the deformation of stratospheric polar vortex over East Asia tended to strengthen the East Asian trough via reflecting the planetary wave from the stratosphere to troposphere. Simultaneously, the southward shifting of the Ural ridge resulted in the extremely strong East Asian trough migrating southward, which led to the strengthening and southward migration of near‐surface anticyclonic circulation. Then, another ECE broke out during 6–7 January (the second ECE). Therefore, the ECE in early January was jointly caused by the combined effects of deformation of stratospheric polar vortex during SSW event and the southward shifting of Ural ridge. Further analysis suggested that about 8% of the total ECEs during 1980/1981–2019/2020 were related to the extension of stratospheric polar vortex to East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we analysed the long‐term change in extreme hot days (EHDs) in East Asia during boreal summer (June–July–August) since 1979, where EHDs was defined as days exceeding or equalling the 90th percentile threshold of the climatological (1991–2020) daily Tmax and Tmin. EHDs frequency occurrence in East Asia during summer showed not only an increasing trend but also a distinct regime shift increase since the late 1990s. Based on this regime shift, we divided these years into two periods, P1 (1979–1998) and P2 (1999–2021), and found that different physical processes operated for each period's EHDs variability. P2's EHDs was related to the stationary wave originating from both the North Atlantic Ocean and the Indo‐Pacific warm pool, but these influences did not appear in P1. To investigate whether the observed regime shift increase was caused by natural variability or greenhouse gas concentration increases, we conducted a CO2 quadrupling experiment as well as a present‐day experiment with a fixed CO2 concentration using the Community Earth System Model with 28 ensemble members. We demonstrated that the regime shift increase of East Asian EHDs occurrences was due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. We further discussed the influence of Arctic sea ice reduction due to global warming on EHDs occurrences in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the different relationships between the two types of South Asian highs (SAH)—the southern mode of the SAH (SSAH) and the traditional SAH in its entirety (ESAH)—with respect to the variations in summer rainfall over East Asia. The ESAH is closely related to summer rainfall over northeastern China, whereas the SSAH is closely linked to summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley, northern China, and Japan. Above‐normal rainfall tends to occur over northeastern China in strong ESAH years, whereas strong SSAH years tend to yield above‐normal rainfall over the Yangtze River valley and Japan together with below‐normal rainfall over northern China. The westerly jet and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) shifts northward associated with a strengthened ESAH. The related anomalous southwesterly winds to the northwestern side of the WPSH transports abundant water vapour to northeastern China and leads to above‐normal rainfall there. In contrast, the westerly jet shifts southward and WPSH shifts southwestward to the South China Sea associated with a strengthened and southeastward‐shifted SSAH. Accordingly, a cyclonic anomaly appears over Northeast Asia and mid‐latitude western northern Pacific and an anticyclonic anomaly occurs over subtropical western North Pacific. The associated southwesterly wind anomalies over the Yangtze River valley and Japan contributes to above‐normal rainfall over these regions via transporting sufficient amount of water vapour. In addition, the anomalous northerly winds to the western flank of the cyclonic anomaly results in below‐normal rainfall over northern China via carrying drier air southward. Furthermore, the preceding winter ENSO events may play a more important role in the SSAH variation via modulating India Ocean SST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the physical processes underlying recent winter cold anomalies over East Asia (EA) are examined via statistical analysis. It is found that the EA cold anomaly depends on the warming in the North Atlantic, sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS), and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Specifically, the sea ice loss in the BKS can anchor teleconnection patterns originating from different North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. Different patterns of North Atlantic warming can affect the position of the cold anomaly region through altering the atmospheric circulations. In addition, whether the relevant teleconnection pattern leads to enhanced cold anomaly over EA crucially depends on the sea ice loss in the BKS, because it can anchor the blocking anticyclone embedded in the teleconnection pattern over the Ural region and make it more persistent and quasi‐stationary. Furthermore, it is found that the role of SST modes in the EA cold anomaly depends on their time scales. Although the strong basin‐scale warming (north–south SST tripolar mode) in the North Atlantic mid‐ to high‐latitudes plays a major role in decadal (interannual) cold anomaly over EA, it appears that the Atlantic east–west SST dipole structure dominates winter temperature variations over EA in recent decades on both the interannual and decadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific‐Japan (PJ) pattern is the dominant teleconnection over East Asia, closely related to the summer precipitation on various time scales. However, studies on the connection between the interdecadal variations of the PJ pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are still limited. This study indicates that the relationship between the PJ pattern and ENSO presents a pronounced interdecadal change around 1997/1998. The PJ pattern shows a baroclinic structure over the northwest Pacific and a barotropic structure near Japan during 1979–1997, while its baroclinic structure in the tropics weakens remarkably during 1998–2021, with a southward shift of its midlatitude barotropic structure. As a result, the connection between the PJ pattern and summer precipitation over East Asia exhibits an interdecadal transition in the late 1990s. In the slow La Niña decaying summer of 1979–1997, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) excite an eastward‐propagating Kelvin wave that enhances convection over the northwest Pacific, resulting in the formation of the PJ pattern. In contrast, the cold SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent rather than the TIO yield a zonally confined Kelvin wave in the rapid La Niña decaying summer of 1998–2021. The elongated Kelvin wave penetrating the central Pacific weakens convective anomalies over the northwest Pacific, thereby weakening the baroclinic structure of the PJ pattern in the tropics. Meanwhile, the warm SST anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) induce a northward shift of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet, with the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the KE significantly affecting summer precipitation along the Meiyu belt. Therefore, the midlatitude barotropic structure of the PJ pattern shifts southward after the late 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific‐Japan (PJ) pattern is the dominant teleconnection over East Asia, closely related to the summer precipitation on various time scales. However, studies on the connection between the interdecadal variations of the PJ pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are still limited. This study indicates that the relationship between the PJ pattern and ENSO presents a pronounced interdecadal change around 1997/1998. The PJ pattern shows a baroclinic structure over the northwest Pacific and a barotropic structure near Japan during 1979–1997, while its baroclinic structure in the tropics weakens remarkably during 1998–2021, with a southward shift of its midlatitude barotropic structure. As a result, the connection between the PJ pattern and summer precipitation over East Asia exhibits an interdecadal transition in the late 1990s. In the slow La Niña decaying summer of 1979–1997, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) excite an eastward‐propagating Kelvin wave that enhances convection over the northwest Pacific, resulting in the formation of the PJ pattern. In contrast, the cold SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent rather than the TIO yield a zonally confined Kelvin wave in the rapid La Niña decaying summer of 1998–2021. The elongated Kelvin wave penetrating the central Pacific weakens convective anomalies over the northwest Pacific, thereby weakening the baroclinic structure of the PJ pattern in the tropics. Meanwhile, the warm SST anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) induce a northward shift of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet, with the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the KE significantly affecting summer precipitation along the Meiyu belt. Therefore, the midlatitude barotropic structure of the PJ pattern shifts southward after the late 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation has long been a challenge especially for the East Asian Summer Monsoon region, where extreme rains are often disastrous for the human society and economy. This paper introduces a decision‐tree (DT) method for predicting extreme precipitation in the rainy season over South China in April–June (SC‐AMJ) and the North China Plain in July–August (NCP‐JA). A number of preceding climate indices are adopted as predictors. In both cases, the DT models involving ENSO and NAO indices exhibit the best performance with significant skills among those with other combinations of predictors and are superior to their linear counterpart, the binary logistic regression model. The physical mechanisms for the DT results are demonstrated by composite analyses of the same DT path samples. For SC‐AMJ, an extreme season can be determined mainly via two paths: the first follows a persistent negative NAO phase in February–March; the second goes with decaying El Niño. For NCP‐JA, an extreme season can also be traced via two paths: the first is featured by "non El Niño" and an extremely negative NAO phase in the preceding winter; the second follows a shift from El Niño in the preceding winter to La Niña in the early summer. Most of the mechanisms underlying the decision rules have been documented in previous studies, while some need further studies. The present results suggest that the decision‐tree approach takes advantage of discovering and incorporating various nonlinear relationships in the climate system, hence is of great potential for improving the prediction of seasonal extreme precipitation for given regions with increasing sample observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ural blocking (UB) event is an important large‐scale weather system dominating cold waves in East Asia. This paper investigates the thermal‐dynamical variation characteristics associated with UB evolution via 32 UB events in winter during 1979–2016. The results show that transport of stationary heat and momentum changes prominently from 3 and 6 days before and after UB establishment. Specifically, on 3 days prior to the UB event establishment, an apparent convergence of stationary heat flux ({v*T*}), which can extend from lower‐middle troposphere to the tropopause, is observed at around 60°N in the Urals region. The diagnosis shows that the convergence of stationary heat flux weakens the meridional temperature gradient (−∂T∂y) and thermal wind, and thus the zonal westerly weakens. The convergence of ({v*T*}) also support formation of the warm centre structure of UB event. Meanwhile, convergence of momentum flux reverses to be a divergence in the Urals region (60°N), which contributes to decrease of the zonal wind. The heat and momentum flux reduce the intensity of the westerly and are beneficial for the establishment of UB event. Along with UB event establishment, the convergence of stationary heat flux weakens, and the divergence of momentum flux strengthens, accompanying with decrease of wind speed at middle latitudes and maintaining of the UB event. Six days later, the convergence of stationary heat flux disappears and divergence of momentum flux changes to be convergence and then the UB event collapses. Further analyses also suggest that the polar front jet (PFJ) enhances (weakens) coincidently before (after) the establishment of UB, which is attributed to the strengthening (weakening) of the convergence of ({u*v*}) around 70°N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the daily minimum temperature data from 199 meteorological stations in northeast China (NEC), the cold wave (CW) processes in winter from 1980 to 2020 are identified. Then, by using the reanalysis 500‐hPa geopotential height data provided by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the CWs are objectively classified into two types (abbreviated as Type 1 and Type 2) according to the corresponding atmospheric circulation through the hierarchical cluster algorithm (HCA). The relationships of the CWs with the Arctic sea sic (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) are revealed. For Type 1, the SIC in the north of the Barents Sea–Kara Sea is relatively less in the previous autumn, and a wave train propagating from the polar regions to Northeast Asia is stimulated under the ice–atmosphere interaction. This wave train further cooperates with the positive SST anomaly in the southern Indian Ocean to excite the low‐vortex circulation under the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter, which is conducive to the occurrence of Type 1. However, the relatively low SST in the western Pacific warm pool in previous autumn stimulates a northward propagating wave train along the meridian, which increases the degree of meridionality of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and thus indirectly causes the polar‐vortex‐splitting circulation under the positive AO phase, which favours the formation of Type 2. The numerical simulations can well reproduce the observational facts, further confirming the possible impact of the SIC and SST in the previous autumn on the two types of CW over the NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) substantially affects the climate in the Pacific and East Asia. Previous studies have revealed that the springtime Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea surface temperature zonal gradient (SSTG) could be used as a predictor of the subsequent summertime WPSH's intensity. Here, we find that the interannual variability of the springtime IPWP SSTG has greatly decreased after the late 1990s, accompanied by the weakened relationship between the springtime IPWP SSTG and the following summertime WPSH, which may reduce the efficiency of the springtime IPWP SSTG as a key predictor for the summertime WPSH in recent decades. This observed recent weakening IPWP SSTG–WPSH relationship could be largely contributed by the decadal shift of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the WPSH around the late 1990s. The ENSO regime shift from the eastern Pacific (EP) type to the central Pacific (CP) type could alter the spatial pattern of the springtime IPWP sea surface temperature (SST) dipole and further weaken the local air–sea interaction between the underlying IPWP SST and the WPSH. From another perspective of the WPSH decadal shift, the WPSH‐related first leading mode before (after) the late 1990s, characterized by a large‐scale uniform (dipole) pattern with an oscillating period of ~4–5 year (~2–3 year), tended to promote a stronger (weaker) linkage with the springtime IPWP SSTG. In addition, the recent enhancement of the tropical Atlantic SST influences is considered to possibly promote the decadal shifts of the ENSO and the WPSH‐related leading mode. After the springtime tropical Atlantic SST was added as a predictor, the predicting skills of the empirical equation for the summertime WPSH could be substantially improved. The results herein have important implications for the further improvement of the seasonal WPSH prediction, which is of great practical significance in the prevention and mitigation of climate disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the performance of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the weather regimes over East Asia during the period from 1961 to 2005. The circulation patterns, frequencies and transition probabilities of the weather regimes are obtained by categorizing the daily 500‐hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies using the k‐means clustering algorithm. We identify four winter (WWR1‐4) and three summer weather regimes (SWR1‐3) in both reanalysis datasets and CMIP5/6 models. Significant increasing (declining) frequency trends in WWR3 (WWR4) and SWR2 (SWR1) are found in the ERA5 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. On the whole, both generations of models demonstrate reasonable abilities to reproduce the circulation patterns of weather regimes based on the Z500 anomaly fields but overall underestimate the intensities of weather regime patterns, underestimate the occurrence frequencies of WWR3, SWR2, and SWR3, and overestimate the frequencies of WWR1, WWR2, WWR4, and SWR1. In terms of both the ensemble‐mean and pairwise comparisons, the CMIP6 models generally perform better than their CMIP5 counterparts in reproducing the circulation pattern intensities, occurrence frequencies during the whole period and the linear frequency trends and transition probabilities of the weather regimes both in winter and summer. Further analysis shows a highly positive correlation between the total frequency and transition performances but a lower correlation between the biases in the total frequency and intensity of weather regime patterns. The improved skill of CMIP6 over the CMIP5 models in reproducing the weather regimes over East Asia may be partly related to the increased vertical atmospheric resolution in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activity have caused significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and land use and land cover change (LULCC), which can in turn affect regional and global climate. We investigate the relative contributions of increased GHG concentration and LULCC to the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) in Asia through three dynamical downscaling simulations with different land cover maps and GHG concentrations. The results suggest that the increased GHG concentration leads to an increase (decrease) in precipitation over East Asia and Southeast Asia (South Asia) in spring and winter. Over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal, LULCC induced a significant decrease in precipitation in autumn and winter, and the change is greater than that induced by GHG. Moreover, the enhanced GHG concentration generally leads to a decrease in dry days or light rain days and an increase in heavy rain days over the land area. However, LULCC‐induced changes in extreme precipitation are generally weak. The increased GHG concentration induces a significant increase of 1–3°C in the SAT throughout the year. LULCC plays a more important role than the increased GHG concentration in modulating the SAT over South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia throughout the year. The increased GHG concentration and LULCC cause a broader range of changes in the daily temperature frequency. The anomalous warm event of 8–10°C increases by 1–1.5 days per season in the middle latitude regions in boreal spring due to the increased GHG concentration. LULCC also leads to an increase in high‐temperature events except central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation in July across Henan Province and the possible mechanisms involved were investigated. The precipitation in Henan reaches its maximum in July. During 1979–2021, the precipitation in July changed weakly, but the intensity (R99p) and frequency (R99f) of extreme precipitation showed certain increasing trends, with a significant increase in northern Henan. The proportion of extreme precipitation in total precipitation exhibited a significant upward trend. Wavelet analysis results showed that the extreme precipitation in Henan mainly has a 2–3‐year periodicity, and remarkable interannual variation. Furthermore, nearly 80% of the July extreme precipitation events within the magnitude of 50–100 mm occurred 2–3 times. The first two empirical orthogonal function modes of July R99p exhibited a quasi‐monopole pattern (EOF1) and meridional dipole pattern (EOF2), respectively. Further analysis revealed that EOF1 and EOF2 were related to the Silk Road teleconnection pattern (SRP) and the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP). Circulation factors influenced the interannual variation of R99p, especially in recent years. Furthermore, the associated sea surface temperature anomalies over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean can intensify the eastward extension of the South Asian high and westward strengthening of the western Pacific subtropical high, which further impacted the SRP and EAP pattern and enhanced the increment of extreme precipitation in Henan Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focused on the interdecadal variability in water vapour content (WVC) over East Asia during winter and its associated mechanisms. The interdecadal variation in the WVC over East Asia during winter was investigated using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The leading mode (EOF1, explained variance is 52.7%) of interdecadal variability in the WVC, which explains most of the interdecadal variation, exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over East Asia. The mechanisms associated with the interdecadal variability in winter WVC over East Asia were further investigated, and it was found that the interdecadal variability in winter WVC over East Asia is modulated by three water vapour transport (WVT) branches from the eastern, western, and southern boundaries of East Asia that are associated with Eurasian winter circulation. Further analyses revealed that increased sea ice concentration over the Barents‐Kara Sea (SIC‐BKS) in October–November (ON) serves as the source of wave activity flux and stimulates a stationary wave train along the Eurasian continent to change the downstream atmospheric circulation. As a response, an abnormal cyclone, an abnormal anticyclone, and an abnormal cyclone are triggered over western Siberia, the northern area of East Asia, and the southern area of East Asia, which are together favourable for WVC sufficiency over East Asia. Sensitivity experiments by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) using sea ice forcing in the Barents Sea yield similar results to the observed data, further confirming our conclusion. Therefore, the SIC‐BKS in ON may be an important potential predictor for the interdecadal variability in winter WVC over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the summer precipitation over northwest China (NW) has experienced a significant interdecadal shift since the early 1990s, followed by a great increase in precipitation. This increase was mainly due to the anomalous water vapour input from the eastern boundary, whose transport has gradually become the main moisture transport belt affecting summer precipitation over NW in the past 30 years. Further research indicates that the anomalous easterly water vapour transport mainly originates from the Arctic and North Pacific Oceans. The interdecadal increase in precipitation and changes in water vapour transport pathways are related to the interdecadal warming of the North Atlantic (NA) and Indian‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) in the mid‐1980s. The IPWP warming potentially weakens the land–sea thermal gradient, dampens the meridional circulation in East Asia, and thereby significantly reduces the southerly water vapour transport of the Asian summer monsoon, and generates anomalous northeasterly water vapour transport from high latitudes over East Asia. Moreover, the warmer sea surface temperature (SST) over the IPWP and NA can induce an anomalous teleconnection wave train, with anomalous anticyclones over Lake Baikal and the Aleutian Islands, and an anomalous cyclone over Japan. This type of teleconnection wave train contributes to anomalous northerly winds over eastern China and easterly winds over NW. The above‐mentioned anomalous circulation favours moisture transport from both the Arctic and North Pacific toward the NW, resulting in an increase in summer precipitation associated with the anomalous regional ascending motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In East Asia, a strong winter monsoon and high baroclinicity cause enhanced cyclone activity, which has been the subject of intensive study. Despite the high frequency of genesis of mesoscale cyclones in this area, most of the studies on the decadal timescale have focused only on synoptic‐scale cyclones. To clarify the interannual variation of the passage of winter cyclones including synoptic‐scale and mesoscale cyclones over and around Japan, a tracking algorithm was applied to 62 winter seasons (December–March) from 1958/1959 to 2019/2020. During the study period, the passage of cyclones around northern Japan showed a decreasing trend. Most cyclones that pass around northern Japan are generated over the northern part of the Sea of Japan, which is an area where cyclogenesis has decreased during the study period. Weather pattern classification based on synoptic scale atmospheric conditions revealed that passage of upper‐level troughs and occurrence of lower‐level cold air outbreaks are the preferential conditions for cyclogenesis in this region. In addition, the intensity of the cold air outbreak in this region was weakened during the study period. These results suggest that changes in atmospheric conditions due to climate change have reduced mesocyclone genesis over the northern Sea of Japan, resulting in the reduction in the number of cyclones passing over and around northern Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the frameworks of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment‐East Asia first and second phase (CORDEX‐EA‐I and CORDEX‐EA‐II), the impact of spatial resolution, physical parameterization schemes and spectral nudging (SN) on simulating inland and offshore near‐surface wind speed over China is evaluated. By using WRF and RegCM4 models, the CORDEX‐EA simulations driven by the ERA‐Interim reanalysis data are conducted from 1989 to 2008. The regional climate models (RCMs) have the capacity to simulate the spatial patterns of surface wind, although significant overestimations exist over inland China. The WRF CORDEX‐EA‐II experiments with increasing horizontal resolution perform better in reproducing both inland and offshore wind speed than the CORDEX‐EA‐I experiments. Moreover, the experiments with SN can significantly reduce the positive biases of surface wind speed. For the temporal variation of wind speed, almost all the simulations show larger biases in winter than in summer. Particularly, the simulated wind speed in summer in the RegCM4 experiment with CLM3 land surface model (RCC‐II) is close to the observations. The extreme wind speed can be well reproduced by WRF simulations, and the SN experiments perform better than the experiments without SN (NOSN). In addition, the overestimations of surface wind speed can be partly explained by the overestimations of the wind field at 850 hPa level inherited from ERA‐Interim reanalysis and the increase of temperature gradient between the land and ocean in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment‐East Asia second phase (CORDEX‐EA‐II) framework, the performances of three regional climate models (RCMs), including Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, RegCM4 and Consortium for Small‐Scale Modelling model in Climate Mode (CCLM), in simulating the climatic distribution, diurnal variation and extremes of precipitation during 1989–2009 are evaluated. The RCMs are driven by the ERA‐Interim reanalysis and the evaluation is based on both the gridded gauge‐based and the satellite‐derived precipitation data. In general, the RCMs can reproduce the spatial pattern of the mean daily precipitation, with the spatial correlations (SCORs) larger than 0.66, and CCLM has the lowest root‐mean‐square error over East Asia. For the diurnal cycle of precipitation, WRF outperforms the other two RCMs despite the peak time about 3 hr ahead in some areas. RegCM4 overestimates the amplitude of the diurnal curve, and CCLM has limited ability to simulate the diurnal variation over most areas. All the three RCMs can reproduce the spatial patterns of the extreme indices, with the SCORs larger than 0.57. WRF and CCLM perform the best for the frequency of wet days (R1mm) and moderate rain (R20mm), respectively. The intensity indices are overestimated over most land areas, with relatively higher SCORs in WRF and relatively lower biases in RegCM4. The consecutive wet days (CWD) can be well simulated by WRF and CCLM; however, RegCM4 overestimates it over most regions in East Asia. The overestimation of the extreme intensity and frequency indices may be related to the higher water vapour content and the weaker water vapour divergence in the lower layer, as well as the higher mid‐layer geopotential height, especially in CCLM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global warming, the frequent occurrence of Eurasian extreme cold events in the Northern Hemisphere in recent years has attracted widespread attention. Winter Eurasia near‐surface anticyclone activities are closely related to low temperatures. This study uses a new objective anticyclone identification algorithm based on a Mask region‐based convolutional neural network (Mask R‐CNN) to detect long‐term winter Eurasian anticyclone activities. We found that most tracks of Eurasian anticyclones (30.5%) pass Siberia in winter. Anticyclone tracks over Siberia can be well separated into the eastward moving type, the northwest–southeast type, and the local type, with distinct associated circulation patterns. The energy dispersions of upstream Rossby waves have an important influence on the movement, maintenance and intensification of the three types. In association with anticyclones intensifying in Siberia, surface air temperatures in the mid‐latitudes of Eurasia, especially Siberia, are significantly lower. In particular, the local type is the most active (56.1%) and is significantly correlated with the winter temperature anomaly in most areas of East Asia. Further research indicates that the preceding autumn sea ice condition in the Barents Sea can be used as a precursor factor to modulate the local type anticyclone activity and winter temperature anomaly in East Asia. In years of less ice, a quasi‐meridional wave activity flux originating from the Barents Sea is more active, and the centre SLP of the local type anticyclone is higher with more cold air mass carried, which in turn results in colder weather in Siberia, the Mongolian Plateau and East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies using observed data suggested a decreasing trend in the frequency of cold surge (CS) over East Asia (EA) under global warming. However, the future change of CSs in different paths is relatively understudied. In this study, after evaluating the classification of CSs paths and the trend of CSs in different paths in historical simulation, the changes of CS paths in EA in future warming scenario have been investigated using the latest 21 models from the phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245) scenario. First of all, the observed paths of winter CS in EA from 1979 to 2013 are tracked by the Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) model using ERA‐Interim daily reanalysis datasets, and the CS paths are divided into the northwestern path, northern path, and western path by hierarchical clustering algorithm. Random forest algorithm is introduced to match the future CSs according to the observed classification results. The projected results indicate that the frequency of total CSs will decrease significantly in the 21st century with a trend of −0.47 times/10a. Compared with the late 20th century, the total CSs, the CSs in the northwestern path and the western path decrease by 49, 61, and 60%, respectively, in the late 21st century, while the CSs in northern path do not show a significant trend. The substantial decrease of the northwestern path CSs and the western path CSs make the proportion of northern path CSs in total CSs rise from 19.5% in the late 20th century to 37.3% in the late 21st century. It means the strong CSs are still frequent in the future, probably due to the stability of the northern path CSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies using observed data suggested a decreasing trend in the frequency of cold surge (CS) over East Asia (EA) under global warming. However, the future change of CSs in different paths is relatively understudied. In this study, after evaluating the classification of CSs paths and the trend of CSs in different paths in historical simulation, the changes of CS paths in EA in future warming scenario have been investigated using the latest 21 models from the phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245) scenario. First of all, the observed paths of winter CS in EA from 1979 to 2013 are tracked by the Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) model using ERA‐Interim daily reanalysis datasets, and the CS paths are divided into the northwestern path, northern path, and western path by hierarchical clustering algorithm. Random forest algorithm is introduced to match the future CSs according to the observed classification results. The projected results indicate that the frequency of total CSs will decrease significantly in the 21st century with a trend of −0.47 times/10a. Compared with the late 20th century, the total CSs, the CSs in the northwestern path and the western path decrease by 49, 61, and 60%, respectively, in the late 21st century, while the CSs in northern path do not show a significant trend. The substantial decrease of the northwestern path CSs and the western path CSs make the proportion of northern path CSs in total CSs rise from 19.5% in the late 20th century to 37.3% in the late 21st century. It means the strong CSs are still frequent in the future, probably due to the stability of the northern path CSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol vertical distribution generally determines their health impacts and climate effects. By using long‐term (2007–2019) CALIPSO lidar measurements, we present a large‐scale insight into the climatology of aerosol types and their vertical structure over East Asia. Despite the low sampling frequency, comparison with MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) shows that the integrated CAIPSO vertical extinction can reasonably reproduce spatial patterns of the aerosol loading. With the unique advantage of active detection, CALIPSO reveals an obvious enhancement of the night‐time AOD due to worse diffusion conditions. Moreover, long‐range transport of different aerosols including dust, polluted dust, and smoke has substantial contribution to the aerosol loading over East Asia. Pure dust particles are mainly concentrated over the deserts with notable dust transport belts (dust AOD > 0.2 at 532 nm) along downwind regions during winter and spring. By contrast, polluted dust is prevalent over the downstream eastern China with much higher AODs throughout the year. In particular, AOD of polluted dust (~0.5) is higher in winter rather than in spring, which is consistent with their seasonal occurrences. Smoke aerosols usually appear in the night‐time over southern China. The top heights of aerosols are around 4–6 km, with dust and smoke having higher extinction at upstream regions. The climatology of these aerosol types and vertical distribution can provide a significant constraint for associated studies of air quality and climate effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern East Asia (NEA) is characterized by wet monsoon region in the east and mid‐latitude westerly‐controlled dry inland in the west in summer, where ecosystem and environment are vulnerable to rainfall variability. Previous studies found close relationship between summer rainfall in NEA and local large‐scale atmospheric circulation systems including East Asian upper‐tropospheric westerly jet (EAJ) and middle‐tropospheric trough (EAT), and lower‐tropospheric low over NEA (NEAL). However, major features of rainfall–circulation coupling over NEA are still not fully understood. This study addresses this issue using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions method based on the ERA‐Interim reanalysis dataset and the GPCP precipitation data for 1979–2018. Three leading coupled modes are identified, together accounting for 30–50% of summer rainfall year‐to‐year variance in most of NEA. The first mode features consistent decrease of rainfall in NEA related to the decelerated EAJ, southward shifted EAT, and weakened NEAL, with a significant interdecadal change in late 1990s. The second mode exhibits a meridional dipole rainfall pattern, with less rainfall along the East Asian subtropical rainy belt and more rainfall in southern Russian Far East, coupled with the northward shifted EAJ, weakened EAT, and intensified NEAL. The third mode presents a zonal dipole rainfall pattern, with suppressed rainfall in southern Russia east of northeast China and enhanced rainfall around the Lake Baikal related to the decelerated EAJ, and westward shifted EAT and NEAL. Further investigation shows that the first mode is remotely modulated by summer rainfall anomalies in the Sahel region and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the interdecadal timescales, and by the Polar/Eurasia teleconnection on the interannual timescales. The second and third modes are, respectively, modulated by summer rainfall in the western North Pacific and north central‐eastern India through the East Asia‐Pacific and circumglobal teleconnection patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the East Asian summer (June–July–August) monsoon (EASM) atmospheric moisture transport variability under global warming are examined using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. The total EASM atmospheric moisture transport is decomposed into the thermodynamic (δTH) and dynamic (δMCD) components, which are related to specific humidity and wind velocity, respectively. Based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, both the second and the fourth modes of δTH are linked to δMCD, indicating that δMCD can impact the moisture distribution and consequently influence δTH indirectly. Both the first (δTH_EOF1) and the third (δTH_EOF3) modes of δTH show considerable interdecadal changes. It is noted that their principal components exhibit significant increasing trends in recent decades. The response of EASM moisture transport to global warming is probably reflected in these two modes. δTH_EOF1 is associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This causes the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) to extend westward and the strengthening of Pacific trade winds. As a result, positive precipitable water anomalies dominate East Asia and δTH_EOF1 is characterized by anomalous southwesterly moisture transport along the East China Sea to southern Japan. δTH_EOF3 corresponds to anomalous moisture transport over the Indochina Peninsula and Japan. The precipitable water associated with δTH_EOF3 in general represents a meridional dipole. Anomalous southward wind induced by the eastward extension of the WNPSH is the main reason for positive (negative) precipitable water anomalies in southern (northern) East Asian. The anomalous circulation associated with the anomalous east–west sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean affects atmospheric moisture in southern East Asian and can dramatically impact δTH_EOF3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade, a sequence of once‐in‐50 year or even once‐in‐100 year high‐impact drought events have hit East Asia. By defining a super drought with the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index for the time scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months all below −1.5, this study aims to examine the changes in super droughts and the underlying mechanism over East Asia in the past 60 years, putting the recent high‐impact droughts in the context. Super droughts in the last 10 years over East Asia have been the most expansive, with two hotspots located in the Transitional Climate Zone (TCZ) and the Southeast Asian region (SEA) regions, together accounting for 2/3 of the total. The seasonal distribution characterizes the largest contribution from summer followed by autumn and then spring and winter. Super droughts over TCZ peak in the recent two decades, which are primarily driven by the increase in potential evaporation (PET) contributing 41 and 80% in the first and second 10 years, respectively. It turns out that global warming signal can explain more than 90% of this PET increase. Over SEA, the recent decade and the period around 1990 saw the most widespread super droughts that were not spatially uniformly distributed but clustered in three subregions. Different from TCZ, the precipitation rather than PET is the most influential in governing super droughts over SEA. Out of the total variability in precipitation, about half of the super droughts in the recent decade is caused by decadal variability, while the trend mode has negligible influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates inter‐model spreading of changes in East Asian winter monsoon circulation and the underlying reasons under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Results show that the spatial patterns of multi‐model ensemble and inter‐model spreading of changes in 850‐hPa zonal and meridional winds over East Asia are similar under the two global warming targets. The multi‐model ensemble changes in 850‐hPa meridional wind (V850) over southern China are near zero under the two targets. Meanwhile, the V850 changes over southern China exhibit large inter‐model spreading, which is closely related to those of regional differences in sea surface temperature changes (DSSTC) in the tropical Pacific. Models with positive V850 anomalies over southern China tend to project weak (strong) surface warming in the western North Pacific (South China Sea and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific). Such a configuration results in decreased precipitation over the east of the Philippines and hence an anomalous lower‐level high to its northwest. Accordingly, southwesterly anomalies prevail over southern China. The southwesterly anomalies are further enhanced by related positive feedback processes. Models with negative V850 anomalies tend to project strong (weak) surface warming in the western North Pacific (South China Sea). The projected surface warming in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is also strong, but weaker than that of models with positive V850 anomalies. Therefore, the induced precipitation and circulation changes over the East Asia–western North Pacific are basically opposite to those described above. Besides, the inter‐model spreading of V850 changes over southern China decrease by about 36.2% from 1.5 to 2.0°C global warming, which can be partly attributed to the decrease in the inter‐model spreading of DSSTC in the tropical Pacific. Numerical experiments confirm the role of the sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increases in total and extreme precipitation have been investigated worldwide using limited spatiotemporal data based on surface observations and satellite remote sensing during recent decades. However, it remains unclear whether rain gauge daily precipitation records also show a significant increase in global precipitation. In this study, we first apply the transformed version of the penalized maximum F test ("transPMFred") to homogenize daily precipitation (P) records from 10,629 stations around the world during 1960–2016 from a dataset (GHCN‐CMA) that combines the daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN‐Daily) dataset and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and then utilize the homogenized data to study the frequency of daily precipitation on a global scale. The results indicate that precipitation frequency exhibited significant increasing trends from 1960 to 2016 across most of the globe, except for East Asia. Moreover, the variability of global precipitation frequency was more pronounced in wet regions than dry regions, especially in North America, Europe and East Asia based multiple daily precipitation datasets. The regional average frequency for moderate (30th < P ≤ 60th percentile), heavy (60th < P ≤ 90th percentile) and very heavy (P > 90th percentile) precipitation increased in North America and Europe. Changes in precipitation frequency decreased for light (P ≤ 30th percentile) and moderate precipitation but increased for heavy and very heavy precipitation, which mainly occurs in dry regions of Australia. Moreover, precipitation frequency in wet and dry regions of East Asia showed opposite trends, with a decrease in wet regions and an increase in dry regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monsoon development in the early rainy season in East Asia is analysed by the evolution of daily weather types (WTs). The WTs are classified by a k‐means clustering analysis based on 850 hPa winds from April 1 to July 31 in the 40‐year period of 1979–2018. Five WTs are identified, typifying the progression of weather regimes in the monsoonal evolution. WTs 1 and 2, with easterly winds in the South China Sea (SCS), occurs mostly in April and early May, corresponding to typical WTs before the SCS monsoon onset. In WT3, winds in the SCS turns westerly, and a rain band emerges in South China, extending east‐northeastward to the Pacific Ocean south of Japan, which signifies the May–June Mei‐yu in South China. Then, with the rain band moved to Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in WT4, this WT corresponds to the June–July Mei‐Yu in central and eastern China along the YRV. Finally, WT5 occurs more frequently towards the end of July, and corresponds to the post‐Mei‐Yu WT, indicating the ending of the early summer rainfall season in East Asia. The evolution of the WTs is gradual but intermittent, representing the weather‐within‐climate information. Each WT likely persists to itself. But WT1 and WT2 also progress to each other. The long persistence of WT3 and WT4 up to several weeks indicates the quasi‐stationary Mei‐Yu in South China and the YRV, respectively. The year‐to‐year variability of the WTs is also evident in the WTs. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on the precipitation in the East Asian region is analysed for three types of ENSO: Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and mixed El Niño and La Niña. The seasonal mean precipitation anomalies can be interpreted by the frequencies of the daily WTs under different ENSO conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been challenging to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using general circulation models. By evaluating the cloud layers unified by binormals (CLUBB) model and its revised version in the version‐5 Community Atmosphere Model, we find that EASM simulations benefit from improving the reproduction of low clouds over the Tibetan Plateau. When a cloud‐top radiative cooling scheme (RAD) is coupled with CLUBB, it significantly improves the resulting EASM rain belt and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) simulations compared to the default simulations without RAD; in these default simulations, the low‐level southwesterlies, WPSH ridge, and EASM rain belt are displaced northward. The moisture budget analyses indicate that the improvements in EASM simulations are mainly contributed to by the improved presentation of low‐level stationary eddy meridional flow convergence over East Asia; this convergence shifts northward during the default model runs. Because the RAD scheme enables the model to better represent the subgrid radiation–turbulence interaction, the model produces stronger turbulent fluxes and lower clouds but reduces incoming solar radiation over the Tibetan Plateau. It thus shifts the Tibetan High southward, ultimately resulting in an improved simulation of the low‐level southwesterlies. These improvements in CLUBB_RAD highlight the importance of improving the representation of low clouds when simulating EASM rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the interdecadal variation characteristics of the dominant mode of summer precipitation over East Asia‐Northwest Pacific (EA‐NWP) before and after late 1990s, reveal the physical mechanism, and address its possible connection with the regional ocean warming background. Study results show that the empirical orthogonal function mode 1 (EOF1) of summer precipitation anomalies over EA‐NWP during the global ocean warming acceleration period (1979–1998) present a more significant dipole pattern between Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and tropical NWP compared with that during the global ocean warming slowdown period (1999–2012). And then we find that the anomalous dipoles of low‐level winds, geopotential height, convection, and associated wave activity fluxes over NWP significantly shift westward (eastward) and enhance (weaken) in 1979–1998 (1999–2012), which are regarded as the direct cause of the adjustment of dipole pattern between YRB and tropical NWP. Further analysis reveals that the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical NWP are prominent (not prominent), resulting in the stronger (weaker) Pacific–Japan Teleconnection over Japan and Tropics in NWP during the period 1979–1998 (1999–2012), and ultimately lead to the change of summer precipitation EOF1 in EA‐NWP. By regressing vertical velocity, outgoing longwave radiation, relative vorticity, wave activity fluxes, and precipitation onto the NWP SST in the two periods, the impacts of the SST in the NWP on the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation EOF1 in EA‐NWP are verified. Finally, the mechanism diagram of interdecadal variation of summer precipitation is given, which can be useful for short‐term precipitation prediction of East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR) experienced a historically high number of persistent cloudy and rainy days throughout winter 2018/2019. The persistent cold and rainy weather caused severe social impacts and economic losses. Climatic monitoring shows that a weak central Pacific (CP) El Niño event initiated in November 2018 with an increase in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. During the mature phase of the CP El Niño, the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) was stronger than normal and the western boundary moved westward. However, the weak CP El Niño event alone is not enough to explain the abnormally strong and northward displacement of WNPSH and associated heavy rainfall in winter of 2018/2019. This study highlights the eastward propagating Rossby wave train in the middle‐upper troposphere along with the Asian westerly jet‐induced anomalous high pressure and anticyclonic circulation over East Asia, which contributed to the intensification and northward displacement of WNPSH. The synergic influence of both the CP El Niño and Rossby wave train over Eurasia resulted in an intensified and northward shifted WNPSH, which, together with the intensification of the India Burma trough, strengthened the transport of water vapour into the MLYR basin. Accompanied by frequent outbreaks of cold air and confluence of cold and warm air over the MLYR basin, cold and rainy weather persisted in winter 2018/2019 in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. Here, we consider the effects of QBO winds in the lower stratosphere at 70 hPa. It is found that during the period of 1958–2019, the EAWM in the early winter months (November–December) is weaker in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than in the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). During EQBO, the northerly monsoon flow is weakened, and anomalous warm temperatures occur over East Asia. Moreover, components of the EAWM circulation system, including the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, East Asian trough, and East Asian jet stream, are all weakened. Our further analysis suggests that the QBO may influence the EAWM directly via a subtropical pathway. The EQBO tends to weaken the East Asian jet stream and shift it poleward, and the changes in the East Asian jet stream lead to a weakened EAWM. The activities of planetary waves are also changed in association with the QBO. Examinations of individual zonal wavenumbers (WNs) of planetary waves in the SLP field reveal that WN 1 is strengthened while WNs 2 and 3 are weakened during EQBO. Specifically, the anomalous WN 2 leads to weakening of the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and East Asian trough, and the anomalous WN 3 reduces the pressure gradient between the East Asia landmass and the western Pacific. The changes in WNs 2 and 3 associated with the QBO play a dominant role in anomalous EAWM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using daily atmospheric circulation data for 1981–2010, we identify the climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) in the mid–upper troposphere and reveal its critical role in anchoring the Meiyu season to the period from mid‐June to mid‐July and the rainfall episode of northeastern China to begin in late July. Wavelet analysis shows a significant 20–90‐day period in the climatological 200‐ and 500‐hPa zonal winds during boreal summer, indicating the existence of the zonal wind CISO in the mid–upper troposphere. The leading mode of zonal wind CISO features a dipole pattern along the coast of East Asia controlled by convection over the southeastern China–western North Pacific (SC–WNP). In mid‐June, suppressed convection over the SC–WNP induces the negative phase of intraseasonal Pacific–Japan pattern, leading to the strong anticyclone with a poleward tilt with height to dominate over the WNP. Consequently, more moisture are transported to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV), and the mid‐tropospheric (upper‐tropospheric) East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) is shifted north of 32°N (36°N), which further increases the YRV rainfall through enhancing warm advection and upper‐tropospheric divergence, thus facilitating the initiation of Meiyu season. In mid‐July, active convection occupies the SC–WNP instead, with the reversed circulation pattern terminating the Meiyu season. In late July, active convection shifts from the equator to the tropical western Pacific, leading to the second mode of zonal wind CISO, which is characterized by a quasi‐barotropic Mongolian anticyclone in the mid–upper troposphere. The upper‐tropospheric EAWJ is further shifted to 45°N, displacing the induced upper‐tropospheric divergence northward, thus initiating the rainfall episode of northeastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated the interdecadal variability (IDV) of winter precipitation in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) between 1892 and 2016. The results showed that the precipitation IDV was characterized mainly by opposite variations between the southern and northern parts of GMS. This IDV pattern was closely linked to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Rossby waves excited by the AMO modulated the atmospheric circulation across Eurasia, inducing an EU‐like teleconnection with alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies across Eurasia. The GMS was directly affected by the anticyclonic anomaly over East Asia. This anticyclonic anomaly had dual effects on the GMS precipitation. Firstly, it caused a descending anomaly over the northern GMS and generated easterly anomalies that impeded the moisture transport from the northern BOB. Secondly, it strengthened the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) that weakened the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) to facilitate moisture transport from South China Sea to the southern GMS. Consequently, the precipitation varied inversely between the southern and northern parts of GMS. Numerical experiments confirmed the causal link between the AMO and IDV of winter precipitation in the GMS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extreme warm winter (ranked first during the past 30‐years) occurred in Shanghai in 2019, accompanied with an extreme rainy winter (ranked thirdly in the same period). An observational diagnosis shows that the extreme warm and rainy winter arose from southerly anomalies associated with an anticyclone east of Shanghai. The cause of the anticyclone was attributed to V‐shaped upper‐tropospheric Rossby wave activity fluxes, originated from the North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean. Numerical model experiments indicate that the anomalous heat source in the tropical Indian Ocean played a dominant role (~65%) in causing the local anomalous circulation, while the heating in North Atlantic also played a role (~35%). A further analysis of the past 30 year data revealed that an extreme warm winter in the past did not coincide with an extreme wet winter. While the warm winter composite shows a large‐scale anticyclone anomaly over Central and East Asia, the rainy winter composite exhibits a circulation dipole pattern with an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) west (east) of Shanghai. Numerical experiments confirm that the former was forced by the combined effect of precipitation anomalies over the North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and Maritime Continent (MC) through Rossby wave energy dispersion, whereas the latter was caused by a dipole heating pattern over the tropical IO/MC sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in precipitation over the Hengduan Mountains (HM) during rainy seasons. The leading two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of HM precipitation explain 28.4 and 13.9% of the total variance, respectively. Positive EOF1 phase features enhanced precipitation anomalies over the southern HM, and a dipole structure with wet anomalies occupying large areas from the YunGui plateau to Tibetan Plateau is observed in positive EOF2 phase. Analysis of moisture budget and omega equation indicate the importance of leading EOF modes related circulation anomalies, which bring the horizontal warm advection to the HM, favouring the anomalous upward motions and precipitation increase there. For EOF1, the HM is controlled by an anomalous quasi‐barotropic cyclone. This cyclone is one part of a zonally oriented barotropic wave‐like pattern highly resembling the Silk Road pattern. Besides, the SST anomalies over the Indo‐Pacific sector are similar to the decaying phase of La Niña, which induces the wet anomalies and further triggers the anomalous lower‐level cyclone as a Rossby wave response. For EOF2, an anomalous cyclone appears over the Northeast Asia from lower to upper levels, and southerly wind anomalies prevail over the HM. The North Atlantic Oscillation and its coupled tripole SST pattern trigger a zonal wave‐like pattern at middle and high latitudes emanating from the Central Europe, across Mongolia to Northeast Asia. Moreover, the SST anomalies over the Indo‐Pacific sector resemble the developing phase of El Niño, which induces the meridional Pacific‐Japan/East Asia‐Pacific teleconnection from tropical NWP to Northeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the interannual relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian early summer monsoon (EAESM) is investigated using observations and community atmosphere model (CAM) outputs. We find that the interannual ENSO–EAESM relationship displays a prominent decadal variation during 1951–2018, which is consistent with the AMO phase change, that is, a high ENSO–EAESM correlation appears during the negative AMO phase, while no significant correlation is found during the positive AMO phase. Further analyses reveal that the AMO‐related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific, rather than in the North Atlantic, modulate the interannual relationship between the El Niño and EAESM. These SSTAs can prolong the existence of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) from the ENSO mature winter to the subsequent early summer, thus affecting the ENSO–EAESM relationship for the El Niño events. In contrast, the AMO modulates the interannual relationship between the La Niña and EAESM through the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The North Atlantic warming‐induced anomalous anticyclone weakens the background cyclone over the western North Pacific during the positive AMO phase, and the mid‐latitude air–sea interaction in the North Pacific also influence the anomalous cyclone. The observed AMO's impact on the interannual relationship between the ENSO and EAESM is confirmed by atmosphere general circulation model simulations using the CAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The different impacts of El Niño on the East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) between its developing and decaying stages are investigated in observations. The EASP responses are almost opposite between the two stages, with an anomalous wet (dry) in Southeast China and an anomalous dry (wet) in North China in the developing (decaying) summer. In the developing summer, El Niño influence on EASP is through its direct impact of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, which induces heating perturbations that excite an upper‐level zonally propagating wave train in mid‐latitude and a lower‐level meridional wave train along the East Asian coast. In contrast, in the decaying summer, El Niño affects EASP through the El Niño‐generated SST anomalies outside the equatorial Pacific, which are combined to produce an uplift of geopotential height around the upper‐level tropics and a lower‐level Pacific‐Japan (PJ) wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid‐1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid‐latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid‐latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high‐latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above‐normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts and corresponding mechanisms of land use/cover change (LUCC), mainly crops and pasture, on the spatial patterns of summer precipitation over eastern China at the decadal timescale during the last millennium are investigated, using a set of land use/cover sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) archive. Two leading modes of summer precipitation over eastern China at decadal scale before (with slight LUCC) and after (with drastic LUCC) 1750 AD are compared. The results show that the LUCC plays an important role in modulating the spatial patterns of summer precipitation over eastern China at decadal scale. Before 1750 AD, the first leading mode exhibits a meridional dipole pattern, while the second leading mode exhibits a meridional tripole pattern. After 1750 AD, the order of the spatial patterns switches, that is, the tripole pattern as the first leading mode and the dipole pattern as the second leading mode. During both periods, the "dry north‐wet south" dipole pattern is associated with an anomalous "A‐C" (anticyclone‐cyclone) low‐level circulation pattern and the related water vapour divergence‐convergence pattern from north to south over the eastern part of East Asia, whereas the tripole pattern corresponds to an anomalous "A‐C‐A" (anticyclone‐cyclone‐anticyclone) circulation pattern along with the corresponding tripole pattern of water vapour divergence/convergence. The regressions of sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter resemble obvious Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) or Atlantic multi‐decadal oscillation (AMO) modes. In addition, the AMO index displays a decreasing trend during the last millennium under the LUCC forcing, while the PDO index does not show an obvious changing trend. The possibility of coupled PDO‐AMO anti‐phase (in‐phase) increases (decreases) after 1750 AD, leading to the increased (decreased) possibility of the tripole (dipole) pattern in eastern China. Our findings confirm the necessity of including LUCC as an important forcing factor in predictions of future climate changes, especially at the regional scale and also at longer timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water management is a crucial issue in East Asia and is significantly influenced by climate change. Because East Asia's precipitation characteristics are varied and complex, it is necessary to implement the analysis of the future changes in precipitation on an objectively classified, specific sub‐regional level to effectively solve these problems. In this study, sub‐regions were objectively classified according to their precipitation characteristics, based on the present observations in East Asia. Additionally, the bias‐correction technique was applied to the regional climate model (RCM) to yield more reliable future precipitation predictions for the sub‐regions. We obtained the following four key results in this study. (1) The classified sub‐regions corresponded well to the observed annual precipitation distribution and adequately reflected the influence of the summer monsoon. The annual precipitation of the classified sub‐regions exhibited a decreasing trend in arid regions and an increasing trend in humid areas. (2) Because the bias‐corrected RCM was able to simulate annual precipitation reasonably, this technique was applied to future scenarios to analyse future changes in precipitation for each classified sub‐region. (3) Future annual precipitation will increase significantly in the region spanning from the western part of Southern China to the area around the Bohai Sea, while the temporal variations of the climatological daily precipitation indicated that sub‐regions under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) will be predicted an increase in second peaks during the summer. Hence, in the future, the EASM rain belt will be strengthened and its average location will move northward from its present location. (4) Because the high‐intensity extreme precipitation indices are expected to have a more considerable increase in all the classified sub‐regions, there is a need to solidify response measures against disasters that could arise from these changes in the East Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on hourly temperature data collected from 2,307 meteorological stations over China and two sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 (RegCM4.4) driven by the global models of HadGEM2‐ES and MPI‐ESM‐MR, future changes of heating and cooling degree‐hours (HDH and CDH) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 scenario are investigated. Compared against the observation, the spatial distribution, magnitude and annual cycle of present‐day HDH and CDH at different times, as well as the diurnal cycle of them can be realistically simulated by the model. Meanwhile, some bias can also be found and it varies with the times, especially for CDH. At the end of the century, significant decrease of HDH can be found over the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China at each times while increase of CDH are observed at all the times except some parts of the Tibetan Plateau where the CDH remains zero due to the cold climate there. But for different times, some differences are found in HDH decrease and CDH increase. For example, the changes of HDH at the fifth to the seventh times present a weaker decrease in the northwestern basins compared to other times and the CDH increase are more significant at the fifth and the sixth times. The regional mean changes of HDH and CDH over China in the 21st century (2006–2098) also diverge among different times, which indicates the degree‐hours is needed to precisely calculate the hourly heating and cooling energy demand and then the heating and cooling degree days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantitatively distinguish the fast and slow responses of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to aerosol forcing using the outputs from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The mechanism of the EASM change due to aerosol forcing is then evaluated from the perspective of upper‐tropospheric temperature change. The results show that aerosol forcing leads to the weakening of the EASM circulation and decreases in precipitation. The aerosol‐induced fast atmospheric response dominates the weakening of EASM and the decreased precipitation over the eastern China. In the fast response, upper‐tropospheric cooling in the mid‐latitudes of East Asia during summer changes the circulation structure, thereby causing the weakening of the EASM. The formation of upper‐tropospheric cooling is closely related to the eastward propagation of atmospheric cooling caused by aerosol forcing in Europe and the resulting change in local meridional heat transport. The slow ocean‐mediated response to aerosol forcing partially offsets the weakening of the EASM over the eastern China in the fast response. In the slow response, southwesterly wind is enhanced and precipitation is increased over the eastern China, while southwesterly wind is weakened over the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea, which dominates the decrease in precipitation over the oceans. The aerosol‐induced changes of land–sea thermal contrasts further confirm that the decrease of upper‐tropospheric land–sea thermal contrasts over East Asia in the fast response plays a key role in driving the weakening of the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is very important to identify the possible mechanism of precipitation generation in southeastern China. To determine the weather type (WT) that is likely to generate precipitation, the Jenkinson–Collison classification method was applied to wintertime daily mean sea level pressure data across southeastern China. We found that all WTs with easterly components are prone to generate precipitation. These WTs were merged into one type named the ensemble of easterly wind components (the EE type). The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type are studied. Anticyclone type is the easiest one to convert to EE type. The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type provide favourable conditions for the formation of precipitation. Furthermore, we examined the influence of two common teleconnections (Western Pacific [WP] and Eurasian [EU]) in East Asia in winter on the WTs. When WP is in the positive phase and EU is in the negative phase, EE type weather patterns will appear frequently in southeastern China. At this time, it is most conducive to the formation of precipitation. On the one hand, warm and cold air converge in this area. On the other hand, the prevailing east wind can provide sufficient water vapour. The study implies that whether a WT is easy to produce precipitation can be judged by wind direction. The results will help us better understand the physical mechanism of precipitation generation in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An empirical orthogonal function analysis was applied to 34 years of anomalous daily 10–20 day filtered outgoing longwave radiation data to determine the north‐westward propagating mode of quasi‐biweekly oscillations (QBWOs) over tropical East Asia during boreal summer. The centres of active QBWO convection coincided with positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at 500·hPa and cyclonic gyres at 850·hPa, whereas the centres of suppressed convection were superimposed upon negative PV anomalies and anticyclonic gyres. These circulations formed an inclined northwest–southeast wave train. The vertical dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the QBWO mode evince two centres of PV at 500 and 750·hPa, respectively, and an almost upright structure in the troposphere up to 300·hPa. The QBWO's convective cell has a warm‐over‐cold structure in the troposphere. These features have several similarities to East Asian tropical monsoon depressions (EAMDs), implying a close relationship between the north‐westward propagating mode of QBWOs and EAMDs. Further investigation indicates that EAMDs are prone to appear in the region of deep convection and move north‐westward with the QBWO circulation. The westernmost position of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which is linked to the QBWO phase, strongly influences the route of EAMDs. An EAMD generated in the easterly winds to the south of WPSH moves westward under the influence of the horizontal adiabatic advection of PV. More eastward‐moving and turning EAMDs appear when WPSH weakens and retreats eastward due to enhancement of QBWO convection over the South China Sea (SCS) and western North Pacific. Most EAMDs reach peak intensity when moving over the SCS, and show a strong relation to the vigorous convection. However, there is no significant relation between the QBWO convection and the points of disappearance of the EAMDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is very important to identify the possible mechanism of precipitation generation in southeastern China. To determine the weather type (WT) that is likely to generate precipitation, the Jenkinson–Collison classification method was applied to wintertime daily mean sea level pressure data across southeastern China. We found that all WTs with easterly components are prone to generate precipitation. These WTs were merged into one type named the ensemble of easterly wind components (the EE type). The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type are studied. Anticyclone type is the easiest one to convert to EE type. The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type provide favourable conditions for the formation of precipitation. Furthermore, we examined the influence of two common teleconnections (Western Pacific [WP] and Eurasian [EU]) in East Asia in winter on the WTs. When WP is in the positive phase and EU is in the negative phase, EE type weather patterns will appear frequently in southeastern China. At this time, it is most conducive to the formation of precipitation. On the one hand, warm and cold air converge in this area. On the other hand, the prevailing east wind can provide sufficient water vapour. The study implies that whether a WT is easy to produce precipitation can be judged by wind direction. The results will help us better understand the physical mechanism of precipitation generation in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An empirical orthogonal function analysis was applied to 34 years of anomalous daily 10–20 day filtered outgoing longwave radiation data to determine the north‐westward propagating mode of quasi‐biweekly oscillations (QBWOs) over tropical East Asia during boreal summer. The centres of active QBWO convection coincided with positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at 500·hPa and cyclonic gyres at 850·hPa, whereas the centres of suppressed convection were superimposed upon negative PV anomalies and anticyclonic gyres. These circulations formed an inclined northwest–southeast wave train. The vertical dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the QBWO mode evince two centres of PV at 500 and 750·hPa, respectively, and an almost upright structure in the troposphere up to 300·hPa. The QBWO's convective cell has a warm‐over‐cold structure in the troposphere. These features have several similarities to East Asian tropical monsoon depressions (EAMDs), implying a close relationship between the north‐westward propagating mode of QBWOs and EAMDs. Further investigation indicates that EAMDs are prone to appear in the region of deep convection and move north‐westward with the QBWO circulation. The westernmost position of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which is linked to the QBWO phase, strongly influences the route of EAMDs. An EAMD generated in the easterly winds to the south of WPSH moves westward under the influence of the horizontal adiabatic advection of PV. More eastward‐moving and turning EAMDs appear when WPSH weakens and retreats eastward due to enhancement of QBWO convection over the South China Sea (SCS) and western North Pacific. Most EAMDs reach peak intensity when moving over the SCS, and show a strong relation to the vigorous convection. However, there is no significant relation between the QBWO convection and the points of disappearance of the EAMDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional Climate‐Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model with a 30‐km horizontal resolution was applied to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and climate in China from 1980 to 2016. As compared with observations and reanalysis data, the model can reasonably reproduce the spatial distributions of the climatological mean atmospheric circulation and water vapour transport in East Asia, as well as the seasonal advance and retreat of EASM and rain bands. The correlation coefficient between the EASM circulation index in the simulation and reanalysis is.97. The model can well represent the geographic distributions of summer mean temperature and precipitation over most of China. However, model biases still exist, in particular the skill in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin is relatively low. The simulated climatological mean temperature and precipitation deviations from observations may be related to the model's systematic circulation biases, with a thicker lower troposphere (i.e., higher temperature between 500 and 1,000 hPa) over most of China (except for the south and southwest) and a thinner one over the coastal oceans in summertime. Compared with the reanalysis, the model overestimates the land‐ocean thermal contrast, which causes the South Asian High shifted to the north and east, as well as the subtropical high and tropical convective activity located further north and persisted longer. Consequently, more water vapour transports northward, leading to more precipitation over North China–Northeast China and less precipitation over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin. Therefore, the enhanced land‐ocean thermal contrast may be a major factor for the stronger EASM in the model, and corresponding precipitation and temperature biases in China. This analysis provides important information for further improving model performance in EASM simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]