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As the world's glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long‐standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900–2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is increasing glacier melt in high mountains and increasing the size and number of glacial lakes. Over time, these lakes may drain catastrophically to generate glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can devastate downstream communities and destroy valuable infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and hydroelectric power facilities. As a result, many risk assessments have been carried out to understand what the triggers of GLOFs might be, in order to better predict their occurrence. One of the main triggers has been assumed to be earthquakes, but this association has not been properly tested. In this paper, we use earthquake and GLOF data from the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes to test this and find that there is little association between earthquakes and GLOFs. We conclude by arguing that focus needs to be on other GLOF triggers, and earthquake activity should be used as a secondary – not primary – indicator in GLOF susceptibility studies. Key Points: Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major risk concern, with earthquakes being commonly considered effective triggers in hazard assessmentsOf 59 earthquakes (1900–2021), the effects of which intersect lakes in the Tropical Andes, only one triggered GLOFsWe suggest that earthquake activity should be used as a secondary – not primary – susceptibility indicator for GLOFs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake swarms are most commonly composed of small‐magnitude earthquakes. However, a recent study by Yoshida, Uchida, et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106023) analyzed a swarm beneath the Noto Peninsula in Japan that, after more than two years of moderate‐magnitude seismicity, triggered the moment magnitude (Mw) 6.2 Suzu mainshock in May 2023. Based on high‐precision earthquake locations and a slip inversion of the mainshock, these authors found that the Mw 6.2 Suzu earthquake occurred on the updip extension of a fault that was active during the swarm, likely driven by increased fluid pressure. After publication of that paper, a much larger and more destructive Mw 7.5 event occurred nearby on 1 January 2024. These events underscore the potential for swarms to be precursors to large, damaging earthquakes. Forecasting the eventual evolution of swarms is currently very challenging but could be aided in the future by new observations and models. Plain Language Summary: Although earthquake swarms often only contain small earthquakes, occasionally they can trigger large, damaging earthquakes. Yoshida, Uchida, et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106023) examined the triggering of a magnitude 6.2 earthquake in Japan, which caused extensive damage, following two years of smaller earthquakes. This sequence, like many swarms, may have been driven by elevated fluid pressure migrating upwards within the crust. After publication of that paper, a much larger and more destructive Mw 7.5 event occurred nearby. Forecasting the eventual evolution of ongoing swarms is currently very challenging but could be aided in the future by new observations and models. Key Points: Earthquake swarms can be precursors to damaging earthquakes, including the 1 January 2024, Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan eventFluid pressure changes often drive swarm activity, and their degree of confinement may influence swarm evolutionDirect observations of fluids in fault zones combined with numerical modeling may aid swarm forecasting in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes nucleate when large amounts of elastic energy, stored in the earth's crust, are suddenly released due to abrupt sliding over a fault. Fluid injections can reactivate existing seismogenic faults and induce/trigger earthquakes by increasing fluid pressure. Here we develop an analogous experimental system of simultaneously loaded and wetted absorbent porous paper to quantify theoretically the process of wetting‐induced earthquakes. This strategy allows us to gradually release the stored energy by provoking low intensity tremors. We identify the key parameters that control the outcome of the applied injection strategy, which include the initial stress state, fault segmentation, and segment‐activation rate. Subsequent injections, initiated at high stress levels, can drive the system faster toward its instability point, nucleating a large earthquake. Starting at low stress levels, however, they can reduce the magnitude of the natural event by at least one unit. Plain Language Summary: Understanding natural and anthropogenic seismicity is a major scientific challenge. Here we present a novel analogue fault model using absorbent porous paper, which gives new insights on earthquake mitigation. When scaled to in‐situ conditions, the porous paper model represents a natural seismic rupture of magnitude Mw = 5.9. By progressively wetting it, we simulate fluid injections in the earth's crust and draw analogies to large‐scale industrial projects. In our experiments, each injection is accompanied by tremors, which progressively release energy and modify the energy budget of the system. Without precise knowledge of the fault properties, we risk driving the system faster toward an unexpected large seismic event. However, provided that the model's key parameters–fault segmentation, segment‐activation rate, and stress state–are well known or controlled, the natural rupture can be mitigated by at least one unit. We expect that these results will facilitate risk reduction in current fluid injection projects and inspire earthquake mitigation strategies for real tectonic faults. Key Points: From an energetic point of view, absorbent porous paper can be an ideal, low‐cost surrogate rock material for studying induced seismicitySegmentation of faults and sequential fluid injection in each segment can mitigate potential earthquakes by at least one order of magnitudeWe show that fault segmentation, segment‐activation rate and stress state predominantly control the result of applied injection strategies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using new continuous geodetic time series, we identify five shallow slow slip events (SSEs) offshore and beneath the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. An early event was detected by one station in 2013, and two events occurring in close succession in both 2018 and 2022 were detected by multiple stations, indicating a preliminary recurrence interval of ∼4–5 years. While SSEs have been observed to the northwest at Nicoya, this is their first documentation in southern Costa Rica. Modeled slip distributions of the 2018 and 2022 events indicate they likely ruptured the same or overlapping patches of the plate interface, near the trench, updip of the 1983 Mw 7.4 Osa event. Immediately offshore, estimated cumulative slip from the 2018 and 2022 events is sufficient to close the slip deficit from tectonic loading over the recurrence interval, potentially limiting the magnitude and spatial slip distribution of future large ruptures. Plain Language Summary: Slow slip events (SSEs), effectively slow earthquake ruptures, are a phenomena that have been observed in many subduction zones around the world. While SSEs in subduction zones are often observed at depth, this is likely due to our observational capability being better when the events occur under land. By contrast, shallow events are more difficult to observe because they often occur under the ocean, despite their potential relationship to large, damaging, and/or tsunamigenic earthquakes. In this paper, we present research that identifies shallow slow slip events in a location where they have not been previously observed, the Osa Peninsula in southern Costa Rica. In total we observe five shallow SSEs, sometimes occurring in pairs, that appear to rupture every ∼4–5 years. Additionally we suggest that the amount of slip in these events may be sufficient to account for all the tectonic convergence in some locations, potentially limiting the size of future large earthquakes. Key Points: We identify five slow slip events in southern Costa Rica, one in 2013, and two events occurring in close succession in both 2018 and 2022The recent four events likely ruptured the same shallow patch of the megathrust, extremely close to the Middle American TrenchEvents in 2018 and 2022 seem to release nearly all slip accumulated by plate motion over a ∼4 year recurrence interval in some locations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare Fourier Amplitude Spectra of Fault Normal (FN) and Fault Parallel (FP) seismograms at near‐fault sites for seven strike‐slip earthquakes with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 6. For all events we find large FN/FP ratios at low frequencies consistent with near‐fault S‐wave radiation patterns for strike‐slip earthquakes. However, the difference diminishes with increasing frequency and FN/FP is about 1 above a transition frequency. The results may reflect small tensile/isotropic components in the earthquake rupture zones that homogenize the high‐frequency radiation in different directions at near‐fault sites. The FN/FP ratios at low frequencies and transition frequencies above which FN ∼ FP vary among the analyzed earthquakes and have no clear correlation with the magnitudes. The lack of correlation may signify a characteristic scale (e.g., process zone size, duration of source time function) controlling the isotropic radiation, and/or wave propagation and other effects that mask the source effects. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake source processes have significant impacts on many topics including generation of frictional heat on the fault and seismic ground motion away from the fault. The classical model with pure shear motion predicts that strike‐slip earthquakes should produce considerably larger fault‐normal motion close to the fault than fault‐parallel motion. Analyzing near‐fault seismic waveforms generated by seven moderate to large earthquakes, we find that larger fault‐normal motion is observed only for relatively low frequencies, and that above a transition frequency the fault‐normal and fault‐parallel motions are very similar. The observations may reflect local dilatational processes in the earthquake rupture zones that modify the directional dependence of the high‐frequency seismic radiation. The transition frequencies do not show clear scaling with the size of earthquakes, which suggests a process with a characteristic length and/or time scale, or a mixture of multiple effects. The results highlight the need to further improve our understanding of earthquake source processes with detailed near‐fault data. Key Points: Near‐fault seismograms of Mw ≥ 6 strike‐slip events show significantly larger fault‐normal than fault‐parallel motion at low frequenciesThe near‐fault seismic motions have similar amplitudes in different directions above certain transition frequenciesThe isotropic high‐frequency radiation suggests that local dilatational processes accompany the overall shear motion in the rupture zones [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Megathrusts at convergent plate boundaries generate the largest and some of the most hazardous earthquakes on Earth. However, their physical properties, including those influencing fault slip accumulation and release and earthquake‐related surface displacements, are still poorly constrained at critical depths. Here, we combine seismic imaging and geodetic modeling to investigate the structure and mechanical behavior of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT) in the center of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha rupture in Nepal. Our results from two independent observations consistently suggest the presence of a channel associated with the MHT with high compliance (shear modulus as low as ∼4 GPa) and strain anisotropy (stiffer in the vertical orientation than in the horizontal), likely arising from a weak subducting layer with north‐dipping foliation. Such mechanical heterogeneity significantly influences the quantification of short‐term fault kinematics and associated earthquake potential, with implications on across‐scale dynamics of plate boundaries in Himalaya and elsewhere. Plain Language Summary: The Main Himalayan Thrust fault marks the boundary where the Indian continent slides beneath the Eurasian plate, causing earthquakes like the 2015 magnitude 7.8 event in Nepal. Subsurface images constructed using seismic waves suggest a weak layer surrounding the fault. However, we show that the seismic signature of this layer changes depending on the direction in which the seismic waves travel through it. We compare this information on the subsurface structure to insights from static surface motions during the earthquake. We find that the fit to the motion is poor when we assume the subsurface rock around the fault has the same strength in both horizontal and vertical orientations. The fit improves when we assume the near‐fault rock is stronger under vertical compression than under horizontal compression. This assumption also helps explain the images constructed using seismic waves. We suggest that a strong oriented rock fabric develops in a channel around the plate boundary. The presence of this fabric may have influenced our estimates of fault slip before, during and after great earthquakes. Accurately describing this behavior is crucial for understanding the earthquake potential of plate boundary faults. Key Points: Seismic imaging suggests a Main Himalayan Thrust‐associated low‐velocity channel with north‐dipping anisotropic foliationModeling of InSAR and GNSS data together suggests a weak channel with anisotropic rigidity whose orientation matches seismic constraintsThe weak anisotropic plate boundary may be related to S‐C fabrics and influence the margin geodynamics on different time scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep low‐frequency earthquakes (DLFE) are observed beneath volcanoes worldwide but are limited to island arc volcanoes, hotspot volcanoes, and rift zones. Here we show DLFEs in the Tengchong Volcano Field, southeast Tibet, located ∼300 km from the Indo‐Burma volcanic arc, by analyzing a 12‐year continuous seismic data set. The earthquakes were at a depth of ∼12 km, near the sidewall of the magma body detected by the magnetotelluric survey. The features of isotropic focal mechanism, episodic occurrence, and possible non‐power‐law scaling, with no detectable geodetic deformation, as well as the petrological signatures of the Holocene eruption product, suggest that the earthquakes were likely associated with the weak intermittent magma flows near the magma body. This finding may demonstrate the existence of unsteady magmatic processes in the margin of the Indo‐Eurasia collision zone, which could indicate unneglectable volcanic hazards, underestimated geothermal resources, and mineralization processes in similar regions. Plain Language Summary: Magmatic systems in the subduction arc, rift zone, and hotspot region are often active when magma stalls in the crust, indicative of unsteady magma dynamics and potential hazards. Holocene eruptions, present‐day structure anomaly, and geochemical signatures exist in some intra‐continent volcanos far away from the well‐predicted regions by plate tectonics. However, the magmatic systems there are thought to be relatively inactive. In this report, we show the first evidence of deep low‐frequency earthquakes occurring in the continental land on the edge of the Tibet Plateau, without any of the arc, hotspot, and rift volcanism involved. The observations' systematic characterization indicates weak but unsteady fluid flow currently occurring in this region. This finding demonstrates an unexpected behavior of the magmatic system in the continental collision zone, which may be underpredicted by the classic theory of plate tectonics on volcanism. Key Points: We report the discovery of deep low‐frequency earthquakes in the margin of the Tibet PlateauDeep origin, isotropic mechanism, low occurrence, and non‐power‐law scaling of the earthquakes are likely related to an unsteady fluid flowSeismic, petrological, and geochemical observations suggest the existence of juvenile magma flow beneath the Tengchong Volcanic Field [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilize train tremors as P‐wave seismic sources to investigate velocity‐strain sensitivity near the San Jacinto Fault Zone. A dense nodal array deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory is used to detect and identify repeating train energy emitted from a railway in the Coachella valley. We construct P‐wave correlation functions across the fault zone and estimate the spatially averaged dt/t versus strain sensitivity to be 6.25 × 104. Through numerical simulations, we explore how the sensitivity decays exponentially with depth. The optimal solution reveals a subsurface sensitivity of 1.2 × 105 and a depth decay rate of 0.05 km−1. This sensitivity aligns with previous findings but is toward the higher end, likely due to the fractured fault‐zone rocks. The depth decay rate, previously unreported, is notably smaller than assumed in empirical models. This raises the necessity of further investigations of this parameter, which is crucial to study stress and velocity variations at seismogenic depth. Plain Language Summary: The speed at which seismic waves travel can be affected by Earth's tidal strains. Understanding this relationship is beneficial for studying tectonic strain accumulation and earthquake nucleation. When freight trains run, they produce powerful seismic energy that can be detected tens of kilometers away. We use these signals to measure how solid Earth tides affect seismic wave speed. Our study focusing on the San Jacinto Fault Zone in southern California reveals that the velocity‐strain sensitivity is consistent, albeit at the higher end of previously reported values measured in other regions. Additionally, our numerical simulations examine how this sensitivity varies with depth. We find that the rate at which sensitivity decreases with depth is smaller than what is typically assumed. Key Points: Stable P‐wave correlation functions are constructed from selected train tremorsThe covariance between tidal strain and P‐wave travel‐time is used to estimate the velocity‐strain sensitivityFull‐waveform simulations of correlation functions are performed to constrain the depth dependence of the velocity‐strain sensitivity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fault normal stress (σn) changes dynamically during earthquakes. However, the impact of these changes on fault strength is poorly understood. We explore the effects of rapidly varying σn by conducting rotary‐shear experiments on simulated fault gouges at 1 μm/s, under well‐drained, hydrothermal conditions. Our results show both elastic and anelastic (time‐dependent but recoverable) changes in gouge layer thickness in response to step changes and sinusoidal oscillations in σn. In particular, we observe dilation associated with marked weakening during ongoing σn‐oscillations at frequencies >0.1 Hz. Moreover, recovery of shear stress after such oscillations is accompanied by transient (anelastic) compaction. We propose a microphysically based friction model that explains most of the observations made, including the effects of temperature and step versus sinusoidal perturbation modes. Our results highlight that σn‐oscillations above a specific frequency threshold, controlled by the loading regime and frictional properties of the fault, may enhance seismic hazards. Plain Language Summary: Faults in the crust sometimes experience rapid stress changes, caused by nearby or remote earthquakes, by seasonal impoundment and discharge of reservoirs, by hydrocarbon or geothermal energy production, or by reservoir stimulation. The impact of these stress changes on the earthquake potential of faults is poorly understood. This study explores such effects through laboratory experiments on simulated faults under upper crustal PT conditions, perturbing the normal stress on the fault in various ways. Our results show that the shear stress supported by the fault, and the fault thickness, respond instantly to normal stress changes, followed by a transient evolution. In particular, we observed dilation (fault‐normal expansion) associated with marked weakening during fast oscillation. We propose a micromechanical model that can qualitatively explain the general experimental observations. Our results indicate that varying the normal stress on a fault at frequencies above a specific threshold may enhance seismic hazard. Key Points: We observed dynamic weakening and dilation of shearing gouges subjected to rapid oscillations in normal stressFault compaction/dilation explains the shear stress evolution in response to different modes of normal stress perturbationWe propose a micromechanical model for gouge friction under time‐variable normal stress conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grabens, or valleys formed during extensional tectonic events, are common but rarely observed during formation. In November 2023, inelastic surface deformation formed abruptly along Iceland's plate boundary in Grindavík. We documented graben formation in real‐time through satellite mapping (InSAR), seismicity, GNSS data, repeated lidar surveys, and field mapping. Five normal faults and ∼12 fissures ruptured the surface delineating two grabens separated by a horst, a context not present in other contemporary case studies. The graben normal faults slipped rapidly (over hours) and maximum surface motions coincided with the occurrence of turbulent seismic swarms in both space and time. Although 3 eruptions took place ∼15 km northeast of Grindavík from 2021 to 2023, attributed to magma intrusions (i.e., dikes), none of these also formed grabens. Thus, the Grindavík grabens shows evidence for tectonic origins. Real‐time monitoring of these phenomena provide insight into graben formation on Earth and potentially on other planets. Plain Language Summary: Valleys known as grabens, typically caused by extensional tectonic events, are a common geological feature, yet their formation is rarely observed. In November 2023, such two grabens suddenly emerged along the boundary between tectonic plates in the town of Grindavík, Iceland. The grabens were shaped by tectonic activity expressed by a swarm of earthquakes and associated ground deformation and resulted in normal faults rupturing the surface and cutting through houses, linear infrastructure including water pipelines and roads within Grindavík. We document the grabens and horst in real time using satellite mapping (InSAR), geodetic GPS data, repeated drone surveys, field mapping, and seismic recordings from a local seismic network. The combination of these data provide unprecedented level of precision in characterizing surface and sub‐surface deformations, especially when maximum surface motions correlate with a turbulent seismic activity in both space and time. Critically, following the formation of the grabens, a series of intensive through short‐lived eruptions happened in December 2023, January 2024, February 2024, March, and May 2024 within the northernmost portion of the grabens. Our observations provide valuable insights into the natural laboratory of Iceland and contribute to the understanding of plate tectonics both on Earth and other planets. Key Points: The 2023 seismic swarm and extension lead to a graben forming that coincides in time and space along Iceland's plate boundaryDuring 2021 to December 2023 only one tectonic graben formed, although 4 eruptions have taken placeThe graben in Grindavík, Iceland is wider at the surface than most recently documented grabens (∼4,500 m vs. <1,000 m) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We numerically investigate the role of plastic strain accumulation on the mechanical response of a planar strike‐slip fault. Our models show that fault‐zone strength significantly impacts the ensuing sequence of earthquakes. Weaker fault zones accumulating more plastic strain promote more complexity in the seismicity pattern through aperiodic earthquake occurrences and intermittent episodes of rupture and arrest. However, if the fault zone strength is high enough, the overall earthquake sequence is characterized by periodic fault‐spanning events. We find that both the fault normal stress and the fault geometric profile evolve throughout the earthquake sequence, suggesting a self‐roughening mechanism. Despite the significant impact of plasticity on the fault response, the width of the plastically deforming region in the fault zone is small compared to the fault length. Our results suggest a rich behavior in dynamically evolving fault zones and support the need for further high‐resolution studies of the highly non‐linear near‐fault region. Plain Language Summary: Why do some faults fail in large earthquakes while other faults generate smaller ones? In our computer simulation study, we explored how the strength of a strike‐slip fault (where Earth's crust plates slide past each other) affects earthquake patterns. We discovered that weaker fault zones, which can stretch or squeeze more, often have more complex and unpredictable earthquake patterns, including irregular timings and smaller, clustered earthquakes. In contrast, stronger fault zones tend to have regular, larger earthquakes. Interestingly, in weaker fault zones, the geometry of the fault surface can change over time and become rougher in response to the deformability of the surrounding rocks, suggesting a roughening of the fault surface. Although these changes significantly influence earthquake patterns, they occur in a relatively small region surrounding the fault plane highlighting the need for expanding instrumentation closer to active faults. These findings are useful for contextualizing observed seismicity patterns and are relevant for seismic hazard studies. Key Points: Partitioning of deformation between off‐fault bulk and fault contributes to seismic complexitySeismic complexity and accumulation of plastic strain induce normal stress perturbations on the faultOff‐fault inelastic deformation results in cascading earthquake [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent geophysical studies have highlighted the potential utility of integrating both seismic and infrasound data to improve source characterization and event discrimination efforts. However, the influence of each of these data types within an integrated framework is not yet well‐understood by the geophysical community. To help elucidate the role of each data type within a merged structure, we develop a neural network which fuses seismic and infrasound array data via a gated multimodal unit for earthquake‐explosion discrimination within the Korean Peninsula. Model performance is compared before and after adding the infrasound branch. We find that the seismoacoustic model outperforms the seismic model, with the majority of the improvements stemming from the explosions class. The influence of infrasound is quantified by analyzing gated multimodal activations. Results indicate that the model relies comparatively more on the infrasound branch to correct seismic predictions. Plain Language Summary: Earthquakes and explosions can produce energy that travel as waves through the ground, seismic, and the air, infrasound. As these waves travel to the station where they are detected, they can be changed so drastically by the medium that it makes it difficult to determine what caused them. In these instances, it has been shown that using both seismic and infrasound data works better to characterize an event than using them independent of one another. However, due to the differences in how the air and ground influence the movement of energy, it is not well‐known how these types of data work in unison to give us more information about an event. In this study, we use a machine learning model trained on both seismic and infrasound data to help us better understand how they can be used together to determine their source. Key Points: Discrimination performance within the Korean Peninsula is improved after fusing seismoacoustic data within a deep learning architectureNeural network framework provides insight into how information in multimodal data combine to distinguish between different event types [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On New Year's Day 2024, a magnitude 7.6 event struck the Noto Peninsula in central Japan. Prior to this event, an intense earthquake swarm had persisted beneath the northeastern peninsula for more than five years. Geophysical evidence provides insight into the upwelling of deep fluids from the uppermost mantle that triggers the seismic swarm activity. The noble gases and their isotopes have been used as geochemical indicators to determine the origin of the fluids associated with the swarms and their upwelling. Gas samples collected from boreholes around the seismic source region are characterized by anomalously high 3He/4He ratios (∼3.9 RAcor), indicating infiltration of mantle fluids from the subcrustal lithosphere. Using a steady‐state advection model, we calculated mantle helium fluxes of 1.1–2.4 × 10−15 mol cm−2 a−1, similar to those estimated for other representative fault zones, such as the San Andreas and North Anatolian faults. Plain Language Summary: In the Noto Peninsula, central Japan, a long‐lasting, intense earthquake swarm has continued since May 2018. On 1 January 2024, the largest M 7.6 earthquake to date occurred. Geophysical evidence provides insight into the upwelling of deep fluids from the uppermost mantle that triggers the seismic swarm activity. The origin of fluids associated with earthquake swarms and their upward fluxes were determined using noble gases and their isotopes. We collected gas samples from hot spring wells around the seismic source region of earthquake swarms. The observed 3He/4He ratios several times higher than the atmospheric value. This indicates infiltration of mantle fluids derived from the subcrustal lithosphere. In addition, we calculated mantle helium fluxes of ∼2.4 × 10−15 mol cm−2 a−1, which is consistent with estimates for other major fault zones around the world. Key Points: Before the M 7.6 earthquake that occurred in the Noto Peninsula on 1 January, there was a persistent earthquake swarm for over five yearsElevated 3He/4He ratios in gas samples from hot spring wells suggest the emission of mantle‐derived helium from the seismic source regionThe mantle fluids infiltrate the seismogenic crust and then diffuse in the fault zone, triggering the earthquake swarm [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We considered various non‐uniformities such as branch faults, rotation of stress field directions, and changes in tectonic environments to simulate the dynamic rupture process of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake in SE Türkiye. We utilized near‐fault waveform data, GNSS static displacements, and surface rupture to constrain the dynamic model. The results indicate that the high initial stress accumulated in the Kahramanmaraş‐Çelikhan seismic gap leads to the successful triggering of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and the supershear rupture in the northeast segment. Due to the complexity of fault geometry, the rupture speed along the southeastern segment of the EAF varied repeatedly between supershear and subshear, which contributed to the unexpectedly strong ground motion. Furthermore, the triggering of the EAF reminds us to be aware of the risk of seismic gaps on major faults being triggered by secondary faults, which is crucial to prevent significant disasters. Plain Language Summary: On 6 February 2023, the south‐central Türkiye was hit by two major earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 respectively. Among them, the complex rupture process and unexpected ground motion of the Mw 7.8 event attracted the attention of seismologists. In this paper, the 3D dynamic rupture process of this mainshock is simulated based on complex multi‐fault system and heterogeneous initial stress. And the simulation results are in good agreement with the observations. Our results show that high initial stress is required for the EAF to be triggered. The supershear rupture occurred only in certain fault segments and is unable to sustain itself in a significant area on the fault due to the along‐strike variations in fault geometry and strength. More importantly, the dynamic model suggests that we must be alert to the risk of major fault being triggered by earthquakes on nearby small faults, especially when there are seismic gaps on the major fault. Key Points: The high initial stress accumulated in the seismic gap leads to the successful triggering of the East Anatolian FaultThe change of fault geometry in the southwest segment prevented the sustained supershear ruptureThe risk of earthquake nucleation on the secondary fault triggering the major fault rupture and the related disaster was highlighted [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A M6.8 earthquake struck the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco on 8 September 2023, ending a 63‐year seismic silence. We herein attempt to clarify the seismogenic fault and explore the underlying mechanism for this seismic event based on multiple data sets. Utilizing probabilistic Bayesian inversion on interferometric radar data, we determine a seismogenic fault plane centered at a depth of 26 km, striking 251° and dipping 72°, closely aligned with the Tizi n'Test fault system. Given a hypocenter at the Moho depth, the joint inversion of radar and teleseismic data reveals that the rupture concentrates between depths of 12 and 36 km, offsetting the Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho) at ∼32 km. Considering a strong link between magma activity and failure in lower crust, we propose that the triggering of the earthquake possibly was mantle upwelling that also supports the high topography. Plain Language Summary: On 8 September 2023, a devastating earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8, struck the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco, breaking a 63‐year seismic silence. In this work we utilized geodetic, seismic, and seismicity data to investigate the earthquake, pinpointing its origin within the Tizi n'Test fault system at 12–36 km depths and causing displacement of the Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho), where Earth's crust meets the mantle. Highlighting the impact of the mantle upwelling, this event underscores its significance in shaping regional topography and driving crustal deformation along established faults, leading to unusual, significant seismic activity in areas of minimal plate convergence. This earthquake highlights the importance of incorporating deep crustal dynamics into seismic hazard evaluations, challenging traditional risk models with its implications on earthquake genesis far from tectonic boundaries. Key Points: Interferometric radar data, Bayesian inversion techniques and teleseismic data reveal the seismogenic fault and underlying mechanismsThe seismogenic fault centered at a depth of 26 km, striking 251° and dipping 72°, closely aligned with the Tizi n'Test fault systemWe propose that the 2023 M6.8 earthquake in Morocco was possibly triggered by mantle upwelling on a steep fault that offsets the Moho [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of deep‐learning‐based seismic phase pickers has surged in recent years. However, the efficacy of these models when applied to monitoring volcano seismicity has yet to be fully evaluated. Here, we first compile a data set of seismic waveforms from various volcanoes globally. We then show that the performances of two widely used deep‐learning pickers deteriorate systematically as the earthquakes' frequency content decreases. Therefore, the performances are especially poor for long‐period earthquakes often associated with fluid/magma movement. Subsequently, we train new models which perform significantly better, including when tested on two data sets where no training data were used: volcanic earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone and tectonic low‐frequency earthquakes along the Nankai Trough. Our model/workflow can be applied to improve monitoring of volcano seismicity globally while our compiled data set can be used to benchmark future methods for characterizing volcano seismicity, especially long‐period earthquakes which are difficult to monitor. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake activity at volcanic regions is often monitored to indicate volcanic activity. Identifying the time when the energy radiated from an earthquake source arrives at a seismometer is essential for locating the earthquake, which can be difficult for volcanic earthquakes because of high noise levels, high event rates, and obscured onsets. Previous studies have demonstrated that deep learning can excel in picking the arrival times of regular earthquakes. However, it is unclear how sensitive these detectors are to earthquakes in volcanic regions. Here, we first compile a data set of earthquakes from various volcanoes globally. We then show that existing deep‐learning‐based detectors can miss a large fraction of these earthquakes, especially those without an abrupt change in signal amplitude. We then provide two new models which can better detect volcanic earthquakes than existing models. Our model/workflow can be applied to improve monitoring of volcanic earthquakes globally. Key Points: We compile a data set of seismic waveforms from various volcanic regions globallyWe show that existing deep‐learning phase pickers' performances deteriorate with decreasing earthquake frequency contentOur retrained models perform better and are more generalizable for monitoring volcano seismicity, especially long‐period earthquakes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection of preslip, occurring hours to days before a large earthquake, using geodetic measurements has been a major focus in earthquake prediction research. A recent study claims to have detected a preseismic signal interpreted as accelerating slip near the hypocenter of the 2011 great Tohoku‐oki earthquake, starting approximately 2 hr before the mainshock. This claim is based on a stacking procedure using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data. However, a follow‐up study demonstrated that the signal disappeared when specific GNSS noise was corrected. Here we utilize tiltmeter records, independent on GNSS, to check whether the claimed preseismic signal is detected using a similar stacking procedure. Our results show no acceleration‐like deformation from 2 hr before the mainshock. This indicates that no precursory slip exceeded the noise level of the tilt data, and if any preslip occurred, it was less than 5.0 × 1018 Nm in seismic moment. Plain Language Summary: The ability to detect large earthquakes before they occur would be invaluable for mitigating damage. Researchers have been searching for precursory signals in crustal deformation data, believing that if precursory slip (fault movement before a major earthquake) is large enough, it could be detected by GNSS or tiltmeters, enabling earthquake prediction. The 2011 Tohoku‐oki earthquake provided a valuable opportunity to study this phenomenon. Extensive data was collected, but previous studies found no significant pre‐earthquake signals on timescales of hours to days. A recent GNSS study claimed an acceleration‐like change 2 hr before the main shock, but another study using the same data disputed this. While reanalysis using the same GNSS data is important, it is also susceptible to the influence of the same noise sources. To avoid this, this study analyzed tiltmeter data, finding no evidence for the precursory deformation suggested earlier. This result indicates no significant precursory slip before the Tohoku‐oki earthquake that causes deformation larger than a noise level of the tiltmeter data. This result can provide constraints on the magnitude of the precursory slip immediately before the mainshock. Key Points: Tiltmeter records are used to determine whether a preseismic signal of the 2011 great Tohoku‐oki earthquake is detectedNo acceleration‐like tilt deformation from about 2 hr before the mainshock is recordedAn upper bound on the size of the preslip immediately before the mainshock can be estimated from the noise level of the observation data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the generation of damaging, high‐frequency ground motions during earthquakes is essential both for fundamental science and for effective hazard preparation. Various theories exist regarding the origin of high‐frequency ground motions, including the standard paradigm linked to slip heterogeneity on the rupture plane, and alternative perspectives associated with fault complexity. To assess these competing hypotheses, we measure ground motion amplitudes in different frequency bands for 3 ≤ M ≤ 5.8 earthquakes in Southern California and compare them to empirical ground motion models. We utilize a Bayesian inference technique called the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to identify earthquake source regions that produce higher or lower ground motions than expected. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between fault complexity measurements and the high‐frequency ground motion event terms identified by INLA. These findings suggest that earthquakes on complex faults (or fault networks) lead to stronger‐than‐expected ground motions at high frequencies. Plain Language Summary: An important and unresolved question in earthquake science is how damaging, rapid ground shaking is generated during an earthquake. Various ideas currently exist to explain the cause of such ground motions, with the standard view attributing strong ground motion to frictional variations on the fault plane that ruptures during an earthquake. However, recent studies have also indicated that geometric complexities within fault networks may likewise influence the strong ground shaking. To help resolve this conundrum, we analyzed the ground motions produced by earthquakes in Southern California to assess the dependence of these ground motions to the complex fault networks on which the earthquakes occur. Our findings indicate that complex fault network systems have a substantial influence on how damaging earthquake ground shaking could be. These results have broad implications for our understanding of the physics of earthquakes and have important implications for earthquake hazards. Key Points: We investigate the influence of fault network complexity on the high‐frequency ground motions of earthquakes in CaliforniaWe observe a strong correlation between fault complexity and residual ground motions at high frequenciesThe correlation is frequency‐dependent, with stronger correlations observed at frequencies above 2 Hz [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A devastating earthquake with moment magnitude 7.5 occurred in the Noto Peninsula in central Japan on 1 January 2024. We estimate the rupture evolution of this earthquake from teleseismic P‐wave data using the potency‐density tensor inversion method, which provides information on the spatiotemporal slip distribution including fault orientations. The results show a long and quiet initial rupture phase that overlaps with regions of preceding earthquake swarms and associated aseismic deformation. The following three major rupture episodes evolve on segmented, differently oriented faults bounded by the initial rupture region. The irregular initial rupture process followed by the multi‐scale rupture growth is considered to be controlled by the preceding seismic and aseismic processes and the geometric complexity of the fault system. Such a discrete rupture scenario, including the triggering of an isolated fault rupture, adds critical inputs on the assessment of strong ground motion and associated damages for future earthquakes. Plain Language Summary: On 1 January 2024, a moment magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in the northern Noto Peninsula, Japan. The strong ground motion and tsunami associated with the earthquake caused severe damage to buildings and infrastructure, resulting in at least 245 causalities in the affected areas. The Noto Peninsula is affected by northwest‐southeast compression, and active reverse faults are known along the northern coast of the peninsula and its offshore region. Before the 2024 earthquake, the source region experienced long‐lasting earthquake swarm activity, which is a set of seismic events without an obvious mainshock‐aftershock pattern. Our seismological analysis found that there was a 10‐s‐long initial rupture episode around the hypocenter that overlapped with the earthquake swarm region. The initial rupture was followed by a series of three different rupture episodes on differently oriented fault segments. This earthquake highlights a multi‐scale rupture growth across a segmented fault network after a very quiet initial rupture process that was controlled by the preceding earthquake swarms and associated aseismic deformation related to fluid injection from depth. The rupture process advances our understanding of earthquake source physics and can lead to a better assessment of future earthquake hazards. Key Points: The 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake involves a multi‐segmented rupture sequence on differently oriented faultsThe long and quiet initial rupture domain coincides with the preceding earthquake swarm regionFluid‐induced earthquake swarms and a segmented fault network control the complex earthquake rupture growth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes that rupture several faults occur frequently within the shallow lithosphere but are rarely observed for intermediate‐depth events (70–300 km). On 29 November 2007, the Mw7.4 Martinique earthquake struck the Lesser Antilles Island Arc near the deep end of the Wadati‐Benioff‐Zone. The sparse regional seismic network of 2007 previously hampered a detailed examination of this unusually complex event. Here, we combine seismic data from different studies with regional moment tensor inversion results and 3D full‐waveform modeling. We show that the earthquake is a doublet consisting of dip‐slip and strike‐slip motion along two oblique structures, both activated under extensional stress along the strike of the slab. Comparison with tectonic reconstructions suggests that the earthquake ruptured along a re‐activated ridge‐transform segment of the subducted Proto‐Caribbean spreading ridge. The unprecedented resolution of the source process highlights the influence of pre‐existing structures on localizing slab deformation also at intermediate‐depth. Plain Language Summary: Some earthquakes in continents and near the ocean floor are known to break multiple, differently oriented, faults. Such compound earthquakes are rarely observed in subducted plates in the intermediate‐depth region between 70 and 300 km. Intermediate‐depth earthquake mechanics and stress state are possibly different from shallower earthquakes, and maybe they hinder complex events. On 29 November 2007, the Mw7.4 Martinique earthquake occurred at a depth of ∼150 km, near the deep end of the regional seismic zone below the Lesser Antilles Arc. The regional seismic network in 2007 was relatively sparse; it revealed the earthquake had a complex mechanism but did not previously allow for an in‐depth study. In this study, we combine different types of data and methods, including full waveform information, based on a recently derived 3D regional velocity model. Our analyses shows that the Martinique earthquake consisted of at least two distinct sub‐events on perpendicular faults in the subducted plate—a source doublet. By comparing the orientations of the doublet faults with plate tectonic reconstructions, we infer that this intermediate‐depth earthquake broke along a fossil plate‐boundary. This indicates that such structures remain structural weaknesses even after subduction. Key Points: Moment tensor solutions, aftershock activity, back‐projection, and source‐time function suggest a complex rupture of the 29 November 2007, Mw7.4 Martinique earthquakeRegional Moment Tensor modeling and aftershock cross‐correlation identified the event as a source doubletEarthquake likely re‐activated a fossil ridge‐transform structure associated with the subducted Proto‐Caribbean spreading ridge [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An unexpected Mw7.45 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula on 1 January 2024, preceded by several long‐living earthquake swarms, providing a valuable opportunity to study seismic and aseismic slips, as well as their interactions. We derived coseismic and 19‐day postseismic slip distributions by inverting co‐ and post‐seismic displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. The inverted coseismic slip distribution shows two slip patches, with a maximum slip of ∼4 m. The early postseismic afterslip is 0.1–0.25 m within coseismic slip asperity and 0.1–0.6 m northward of the rupture area. The afterslip within the rupture area is accompanied by numerous aftershocks and coincides with a ∼6 MPa stress drop, suggesting that aftershocks are likely driven by the afterslip. The pattern of poroelastic rebound implies a potential effect of fluid flow on aftershock triggering. This study sheds lights on the intricate interplay between seismic and aseismic processes following large earthquakes. Plain Language Summary: A Mw7.45 earthquake hit the northeastern tip of the Noto Peninsula on 1 January 2024. This region has hosted several long earthquake swarms. This unusual earthquake provides a good opportunity to explore the fault behaviors following a major earthquake. The coseismic and early postseismic deformation have been well recorded at the GNSS stations with unprecedentedly high spatial and temporal resolutions. We inverted the coseismic and early postseismic slip distributions from the GNSS data. The coseismic slip distributes mostly in two patches and reaches up to approximately 4 m. The 19‐day postseismic slip distributes mainly in the coseismic slip region as well as to the north of it. The postseismic slip in the rupture area overlapped with the aftershocks. The result suggests that these aftershocks were likely triggered by the afterslip. Additionally, the pattern of poroelastic rebound implies that fluid flow may play a role in triggering these aftershocks. This study helps advance our understanding of earthquake‐triggering mechanisms and fault behaviors following large earthquakes. Key Points: We inverted coseismic and early afterslip distributions of Noto Peninsula earthquake using co‐ and post‐seismic displacements from Global Navigation Satellite SystemThe early afterslip occurred within and to the north of the two main coseismic slip patchesThe occurrence of aftershocks may result from the early afterslip and possible fluid flow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dense and broad‐coverage ocean‐bottom observation networks enable us to obtain near‐fault displacement records associated with an offshore earthquake. However, simple integration of ocean‐bottom strong‐motion acceleration records leads to physically unrealistic displacement records. Here we propose a new method using a Kalman filter to estimate coseismic displacement waveforms using the collocated ocean‐bottom seismometers and pressure gauges. First, we evaluate our method using synthetic records and then apply it to an offshore Mw 6.0 event that generated a small tsunami. In both the synthetic and real cases, our method successfully estimates reasonable displacement waveforms. Additionally, we show that the computed waveforms improve the results of the finite fault modeling process. In other words, the proposed method will be useful for estimating the details of the rupture mechanism of offshore earthquakes as a complement to onshore observations. Plain Language Summary: Ocean‐bottom observations enable us to obtain near‐fault displacement records associated with an offshore earthquake. However, simple integration of ocean‐bottom acceleration records leads to physically unrealistic displacement records. Here we propose a new method to estimate offshore coseismic displacement waveforms. First, we evaluate our method using synthetic records and then apply it to an offshore earthquake that generated a small tsunami. In both cases, our method successfully estimates reasonable displacements. Additionally, we show that the computed waveforms improve the results of the earthquake source modeling process. In other words, the proposed method will be useful for estimating the details of the rupture mechanism of offshore earthquakes as a complement to onshore observations. Key Points: Propose a new method to estimate the near‐fault displacement waveform associated with an offshore earthquakeOur method adopts the Kalman filter approach to combine the collocated strong‐motion seismometer and ocean‐bottom pressure gaugeSince the obtained displacement waveforms have fault rupture information, it can improve the finite fault model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fault regions inferred to be slowly slipping are interpreted to accommodate much of tectonic plate motion aseismically and potentially serve as barriers to earthquake rupture. Here, we build on prior work using simulations of earthquake sequences with enhanced dynamic fault weakening to show how fault regions that exhibit decades of steady creep or transient slow‐slip events can be driven to dynamically fail by incoming earthquake ruptures. Following substantial earthquake slip, such regions can be under‐stressed and locked for centuries prior to slowly slipping again. Our simulations illustrate that slow fault slip indicates that a region is sufficiently loaded to be failing about its quasi‐static strength. Hence, if a fault region is susceptible to failing dynamically, then observations of slow slip could serve as an indication that the region is critically stressed and ready to fail in a future earthquake, posing a qualitatively different interpretation of slow slip for seismic hazard. Plain Language Summary: Earthquakes are thought to predominantly occur along sections of faults that appear stuck and actively accumulating strain under tectonic plate motion. Other fault regions observed to be slowly slipping are thought to release some of this strain without causing strong shaking, potentially limiting the location and amount of fault slip in earthquakes. Here we present numerical simulations of long‐term fault slip that add to a body of work showing how fault areas can host different styles of slow slip for several decades prior to failing destructively when pushed by an incoming earthquake rupture. Our models show how relatively short‐term observations of slow fault slip compared to the recurrence of large earthquakes over several centuries can mask fault regions that are capable of experiencing substantial slip in future earthquakes. Importantly, our simulations suggest that if a fault region is capable of failing during an earthquake, then observations of slow slip may indicate that the region is favorably stressed to fail in a future earthquake, representing a qualitatively different interpretation of slow slip for seismic hazard. Key Points: Short‐term inferences of fault coupling provide limited insight into which faults regions can undergo large slip in future earthquakesSteady and transient slow slip indicates that fault stress levels are loaded near quasi‐static failure conditionsIf a fault region is susceptible to failing dynamically, slow slip may suggest it is critically stressed to fail in a future earthquake [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whakaari/White Island has been the most active New Zealand volcano in the 21st century, producing small phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions, which are hard to predict. The most recent eruption occurred in 2019, tragically claiming the lives of 22 individuals and causing numerous injuries. We employed shear‐wave splitting analyses to investigate variations in anisotropy between 2018 and 2020, during quiescence, unrest, and the eruption. We examined spatial and temporal variations in 3,499 shear‐wave splitting and 2,656 Vp/Vs ratio measurements. Comparing shear‐wave splitting parameters from similar earthquake paths across different times indicates that the observed temporal changes are unlikely to result from variations in earthquake paths through media with spatial variability. Instead, these changes may stem from variations in anisotropy over time, likely caused by changes in crack alignment due to stress or varying fluid content. Plain Language Summary: The most active volcano in New Zealand, known as Whakaari/White Island, has recently experienced numerous minor eruptions, which are hard to predict. The most recent eruption occurred in 2019, tragically claiming the lives of 22 individuals and causing multiple injuries. This study examines the stress field and characteristics of cracks within various parts of the volcano, during the period between 2018 and 2020. We used a method called shear‐wave splitting, which examines the alignment of cracks by measuring the speed of seismic waves in different orientations, and another method that measures the ratio of the speed of two different types of waves traveling through the medium (Vp/Vs). Our analysis revealed that both shear‐wave splitting and Vp/Vs changed over time in response to the variations in magmatic activity. This suggests that crack alignment, content, or numbers change in response to the stresses induced by magmatic activity at various depths within the volcano over time. Key Points: Background fast orientations were concentrated parallel to the crater wall at both measurement stationsSeismic waves that follow similar paths to the stations result in different fast orientations pre‐ and post‐eruptionVp/Vs ratio can provide valuable insights into the nature and evolution of seismic anisotropy in the Earth's interior [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) has been used to study the predictability of laboratory earthquakes. However, the question remains whether or not this approach can be applied in a tectonic setting where one may have to rely on sparse earthquake catalogs, and where important timescales vary by orders of magnitude. Here, we apply ML to a synthetic seismicity catalog, generated by continuum models of a rate‐and‐state fault with frictional heterogeneities, which contains foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks that nucleate in a similar manner. We develop a network representation of the seismicity catalog to calculate input features and find that the trained ML model can predict the time‐to‐mainshock with great accuracy, from the scale of decades to minutes. Our results offer clues as to why ML can predict laboratory earthquakes and how the developed approach could be applied to more complex problems where multiple timescales are at play. Plain Language Summary: Accurately forecasting the timing of an impending large earthquake is one of the main but elusive goals of seismology. Recent studies show that machine learning (ML), a powerful tool that can draw inferences from hidden patterns in data, can predict the timing of laboratory earthquakes that mimic faulting in nature. However, the question remains whether or not an ML approach can be applied to natural faults where one may have to rely on sparse earthquake catalogs, and where important timescales vary by orders of magnitude. In this study, we develop and apply an ML approach to a synthetic earthquake catalog generated by physics‐based computer simulations. We find that the trained model can predict the time remaining before the mainshock with great accuracy, from the scale of decades, long before the upcoming earthquake, down to the scale of hours to minutes, right before the mainshock. Our results provide clues as to why ML can predict laboratory earthquakes and how to apply an ML‐based approach to real earthquakes where multiple timescales are at play. Key Points: We developed a network representation of a synthetic earthquake catalog to train a machine‐learning Machine learning (ML) modelThe trained ML model can predict the time remaining before simulated mainshocks with great accuracyThe network representation of seismic moment and event interval enables us to accurately predict the timing of mainshocks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In August 2021, Askja caldera switched to reinflation following ∼40 years of continuous deflation that was first measured some 20 years after its last eruption in 1961. Various lines of evidence, including from geodetic modeling, suggest that both the deflation and reinflation events are related to a shallow magma body. To better understand the subsurface plumbing system, we derive P‐wave velocity (Vp), S‐wave velocity (Vs), and Vp/Vs models of the mid‐upper crust by leveraging a new local earthquake traveltime data set. A cylindrical low‐velocity zone, ∼3 km wide and extending to ∼8 km below sea level (bsl), was imaged beneath the caldera. Within it, two distinct lower velocity and higher Vp/Vs anomalies are illuminated, one centered at ∼0.5 km and the other at ∼6 km bsl. The shallower anomaly lies directly beneath the zone of uplift and is likely associated with the current reinflation event. Plain Language Summary: The uplift at Askja, which started in August 2021, has drawn attention not only from volcanologists but also from the general public because it followed ∼40 years of subsidence first measured in 1981, 20 years after its last eruption in 1961. Several studies have related the subsidence to the deflation of a shallow magma body beneath the volcano, but this has not previously been detected by body wave tomography, which is a technique to image 3‐D variations in the subsurface, like a medical CT scan. It uses earthquakes that occur below and surrounding the volcano. In this study, we take advantage of a new earthquake data set to image the crust immediately beneath the volcano. We discover a shallow velocity anomaly that directly underlies the locus of surface uplift. This anomaly is likely caused by the presence of partial melt and higher temperatures, which is consistent with the existence of a shallow magma body that is causing the uplift. Understanding the nature of the current volcanic unrest is crucial, particularly in light of the large explosive eruption of 1875, which dispersed ash over large parts of Iceland. Key Points: A cylindrical low‐velocity zone, ∼3 km wide and extending to ∼8 km bsl, has been imaged beneath Askja calderaWithin this zone, two distinct lower velocity and higher Vp/Vs anomalies are detected at ∼0.5 km and ∼6 km bslThe shallower anomaly underlies an area of recent surface uplift, which is consistent with shallow melt accumulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oblique convergence across the northern Qilian Shan is accommodated by sub‐parallel strike‐slip and thrust faults that ruptured simultaneously in the Mw 8 Gulang earthquake in 1927. We investigate the kinematics of fault loading in the northern Qilian Shan and provide insights into the conditions necessary for generating multi‐fault earthquakes. We perform Bayesian inversions for the geometry and creep rate on the fault network. We infer that all of the thrust faults are locked north of the Qilian‐Haiyuan strike‐slip fault and are accumulating elastic strain. Multi‐fault earthquakes may occurr in this fault system because the faults are simultaneously loaded by the same source of deformation and are linked together by locked fault segments. The interseismic velocity field alone can not contain the location or activity of individual faults visible in the geomorphology, therefore the short‐term geodetic measurements may not reliably indicate the long‐term behavior of the fault system. Plain Language Summary: This study aims to understand the earthquake hazard in the northern Qilian region of China. We use measurements of ground deformation between earthquakes to infer how the faults are being loaded in the region. We find that the ground deformation can be explained by a simple model with a single, slowly creeping fault at depth that loads all of the overlying faults. Large earthquakes that were caused by slip on many different faults at the same time have occurred in this region before. We suggest these so‐called "multi‐fault" earthquakes may occur because all of the faults are being simultaneously loaded by the same source of stress. Key Points: Oblique convergence in the northern Qilian Shan is accommodated by sub‐parallel thrust and strike‐slip faultingThe short‐term geodetic measurements do not constrain the thrust fault kinematics in the northern Qilian Shan over geological timescalesMulti‐fault earthquakes may be common in the region as all of the shallow thrust faults are linked together by locked fault segments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The viscoelastic lower crust beneath Kyushu Island, influenced by the volcanic arc, interplays with active crustal faults in this region and helps to shape local tectonics. In this study, we employed a three‐dimensional viscoelastic finite element model to gain insights into the lithospheric rheology and crustal faulting kinematics, through modeling the postseismic deformation processes of the 2016 Mw 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake. Our model reveals a viscosity of 2 × 1020 Pa s for the lower crust and 2 × 1019 Pa s for the upper mantle. A reduced lower crust viscosity of 2 × 1019 Pa s in the volcanic arc area is required for better reproducing the Global Positioning System data. The stress‐driven afterslip decays rapidly over time and is up to 0.3 m within 5 years after the earthquake. We propose additional normal‐component afterslip to better explain the complex postseismic deformation in the near field, which may be due to the interaction between the fault and volcano Aso. Plain Language Summary: We have derived the first 5‐year postseismic deformation at more than 200 Global Positioning System (GPS) stations following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake to constrain the rheological properties beneath the Kyushu Island, as well as the evolution of afterslip. Test models have determined the viscosity of the lower crust and upper mantle to be ∼2 × 1020 and ∼2 × 1019 Pa s, respectively, while the viscosity of the lower crust beneath the volcanic arc is ∼2 × 1019 Pa s, notably lower than that of the other area. The lower crust viscosity in the Beppu‐Shimabara Graben, except the volcano dominant area, is estimated to be no smaller than 1020 Pa s. The complex near‐field postseismic deformation cannot be fully explained by one single deformation process. The viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip must both be at play to control the postseismic deformation. In addition to the rheological heterogeneity, the afterslip may also be heterogeneous. We propose additional afterslip possibly induced by the Aso volcano to better fit the near‐field GPS observations. Our models provide insights into the lithospheric structure of Kyushu Island and the intricate behavior of fault slips. Key Points: We present a 3‐D finite element model to explore the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakeThe steady‐state lower crust viscosity in Kyushu is ∼2 × 1020 Pa s, one order of magnitude higher than that beneath the volcanic arc regionThe complex near‐field postseismic deformation can be explained by the normal‐component afterslip induced by the Aso volcano [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both volcano‐tectonic (VTs) and deep long‐period earthquakes (DLPs) have been documented at Akutan Volcano, Alaska and may reflect different active processes helpful for eruption forecasting. In this study, we perform high‐resolution earthquake detection, classification, and relocation using seismic data from 2005 to 2017 to investigate their relationship with underlying magmatic processes. We find that the 2,787 VTs and 787 DLPs are concentrated above and below the inferred magma reservoir respectively. They both are clustered as swarms and occur preferentially during inflation episodes with no spatial migrations. However, moment release rates of DLP swarms show a stronger correlation with inflation and their low‐frequency content is likely a source instead of a path effect. Therefore, we infer that DLPs are directly related to unsteady magma movement through a complex pathway. In comparison, repeating events are observed in VTs. Thus, we conclude that they represent fault rupture triggered by magma/fluid movement or larger earthquakes. Plain Language Summary: Volcano eruption forecasting is a challenging task that often requires the deciphering of processes underlying observed signs of volcanic unrest. As seismometers become common monitoring sensors on volcanoes, the recorded ground motion is valuable for scientists to study eruption precursors. Earthquakes are commonly observed and generally inferred to be associated with stress perturbations in the shallow crust. However, earthquakes with predominantly lower‐frequency energy are sometimes observed at depth and their origin is enigmatic. In this paper, we use the existing catalog of earthquakes at Akutan Volcano in Alaska between 2005 and 2017 as templates to successfully detect more earthquakes before locating them with higher precision. We find that earthquakes at Akutan Volcano tend to occur in swarms during times when the ground inflates due to magma accumulation beneath the volcano. Some earthquakes have predominantly low‐frequency energy which suggests a different source mechanism compared to regular earthquakes. Furthermore, the largest events are more strongly correlated with surface inflation. Therefore, we conclude that these lower‐frequency earthquakes are more directly related to unsteady magma movement through a complex pathway compared to regular earthquakes which represent fault rupture triggered by magma/fluid movement or larger earthquakes. Key Points: Moment release rates of deep long‐period events correlate more strongly with inflation episodes compared to volcano‐tectonic eventsAkutan deep long‐period earthquakes are likely due to non‐stationary source effects like unsteady magma transport through complex pathwaysAkutan volcano‐tectonic earthquakes represent fault ruptures triggered by magma/fluid movements or larger earthquakes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomenon of differential rotation of the Earth's inner core relative to the mantle is a subject of interest in geodynamo modeling that has been validated by seismological observations, mainly via the earthquake‐doublets method. Although recent studies converge on the time‐varying differential rotation of the inner core relative to the mantle, favoring a decadal variation, the inferred models significantly differ. Here, considering the data selection, the observed data structure, and the subjective model parameterizations, which we avoid by employing a Bayesian transdimensional approach, we show that the recent best‐fit model by Yang and Song (2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561‐022‐01112‐z) featuring the 70‐year decadal variation is not obtained when all available data are considered. Namely, including only a small number of discarded earthquake doublets (<10%) changes the period of the inner‐core differential rotation fluctuation to 20–30 years. More earthquake‐doublet data are required to address the non‐uniqueness of the inversion problem. Plain Language Summary: Seismologists use repetitive earthquakes (earthquake doublets) and their waves' fixed paths through the Earth's inner core to measure the rate of the inner core spinning relative to the mantle. A recent study in Nature Geoscience (Yang & Song, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561‐022‐01112‐z) based on 31 selected earthquake doublets derived a 70‐year decadal cycle of the inner core spinning rate relative to the mantle. We show that the made selective choices change the data structure and possibly miss the inner core 20–30 year periodicity in the earlier times. Key Points: We revisit the problem of the differential rotation of the inner core relative to the mantle from the existing earthquake‐doublet dataThe data selection, the data structure, and the data‐model relationship are critical in inverting the inner core differential rotationConsequently, the model derived by Yang and Song (2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561‐022‐01112‐z) is not a unique model of the inner core's differential rotation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The February 2023 Turkey‐Syria Earthquake doublet ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) Zone. Dominating seismicity focal mechanism shifted dramatically from strike‐slip to normal‐faulting after the doublet. To better understand this shift, here we derived a comprehensive 3D co‐seismic displacement field and performed the stress analysis. Abundant space geodetic data were used to generate high‐resolution 3D surface displacement, which provide tight constraints on fault geometry, slip distribution and stress field. Together with stress inversion from aftershock focal mechanisms, we show that the principal stress direction rotation in the region with the most normal‐faulting aftershocks is the staggering 29°. The induced heterogenous stress may explain the shift of the dominant focal mechanism toward normal faulting. We suggest that the extensional horsetail splay faults, likely formed through geologic time scale related to the releasing bend on the EAF, are the hosts of most of the normal faulting aftershocks. Plain Language Summary: Sudden dislocation of two sides of a fault, or the rupture of rocks, produces an earthquake. The dislocation direction relative to the fault traces reflects the direction of stress that are responsible for the earthquake. When dislocation direction is parallel to the fault strike, the earthquake is termed as strike‐slip type, and termed as normal‐faulting type when they are perpendicular. A remarkable feature for the 2023 Turkey‐Syria Mw7.8 & 7.7 earthquake doublet is that, background seismicity shifted dramatically from strike‐slip to normal type of faulting after the doublet. To unravel the physical process resulted in this feature, we use space geodetic measurements to derive the surface displacements and stress field associated with the doublet. The derived stress field shows a staggering 29° rotation occurred in a horsetail splay fault structure where many normal‐faulting earthquakes happened. The large stress rotation indicates the doublet released considerable stress and may result in a heterogeneous stress field due to the stress change. The combination of the identified horsetail structure and stress rotation can help better explain the occurrence of pervasive normal‐faulting earthquakes. Key Points: We map the 3D displacements, slip distribution, and stress fields related to the 2023 Turkey‐Syria Earthquake doubletDramatic stress rotation occurred after the Earthquake doublet, up to 29°Stress rotation and horsetail splay fault structure are potentially responsible for normal‐faulting aftershocks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underwater Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) utilizes optical fiber as a continuous sensor array. It enables high‐resolution data collection over long distances and holds promise to enhance tsunami early warning capabilities. This research focuses on detecting infragravity and tsunami waves associated with earthquakes and understanding their origin and dispersion characteristics through frequency‐wavenumber domain transformations and beamforming techniques. We propose a velocity correction method based on adjusting the apparent channel spacing according to water depth to overcome the challenge of detecting long‐wavelength and long‐period tsunami signals. Experimental results demonstrate the successful retrieval of infragravity and tsunami waves using a subsea optical fiber in offshore Oregon. These findings underscore the potential of DAS technology to complement existing infragravity waves detection systems, enhance preparedness, and improve response efforts in coastal communities. Further research and development in this field are crucial to fully utilize the capabilities of DAS for enhanced tsunami monitoring and warning systems. Plain Language Summary: Subsea Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) uses optical fiber as an extensive sensor array for strain data collection over long distances. This study investigates its potential to augment infragravity waves warning systems by focusing on detecting infragravity waves and tsunamis induced by earthquakes. We developed a methodology that accounts for irregular sensor depths to enhance the detection of long‐wavelength tsunamis. Our experimental validation demonstrates the successful detection of these waves through a subsea optical fiber. Therefore, this technology holds promise for fortifying existing infragravity waves warning systems and improving coastal preparedness. Key Points: We try to use subsea Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) to improve early warning systems for infragravity and tsunami wavesThe research focuses on detecting infragravity and tsunami waves triggered by earthquakesWe have developed a method to detect long‐wavelength tsunami signals by adjusting sensor spacing according to water depth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐inertial afterslip has been inferred to occur following large earthquakes. An explanation for this slow slip phenomenon is that coseismically generated stresses induce sliding on parts of a fault surface with velocity‐strengthening frictional properties. Here we develop an alternative mesoscale heuristic explanation for afterslip based on the idea that afterslip may occur on any portion of a fault that exhibits positive residual geometric moment following an earthquake, including sections that ruptured coseismically. Following a large earthquake, this model exhibits exponential time decay of afterslip and allows for variable sensitivity to coseismic event magnitude and residual geometric moment. This model provides a partial explanation for the spatial relationship of co‐ and post‐seismic slip associated with the 2011 MW = 9 Tohoku‐oki earthquake. Plain Language Summary: Afterslip is slow slip that occurs after large earthquakes. Some geodetic inferences of afterslip suggest that regions experiencing afterslip may have also slipped coeismically. This spatially coincident behavior is poorly explained by classical stress‐driven afterslip models. Here, we develop a motion‐based model to explain this possible spatial relationship. The model predicts faster afterslip rates in regions that have an excess of accumulated slip to be released following a large earthquake. This model may be used to describe the spatial relationship of co‐ and post‐seismic slip associated with the 2011 Great Japan earthquake. Key Points: We develop a geometric moment based model for time‐dependent afterslipThe model exhibits and exponential time decay of afterslip ratesThis model provides a kinematic explanation for overlapping co‐ and post‐seismic slip proximal to the 2011 great Japan earthquake [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Puebla‐Morelos (Mexico) 2017 earthquake nucleated ∼250 km inland from the trench within the Cocos oceanic plate mantle. Here, we argue that the Puebla‐Morelos (Mexico) 2017 earthquake resulted from changes in effective stress due to the reaction brucite + antigorite = olivine + H2O leading to the reactivation of pre‐existing seafloor faults. Fluid release (∼185 kg of H2O per m3 of subducted hydrated harzburgite) and volume increase (ΔVrsolid+fluid = ∼0.8%) likely occur along subducted seafloor‐inherited faults. The amount of H2O released, and magnitude of volume change depends on the degree of faults hydration; only highly hydrated (>40% of hydration) faults will stabilize brucite and experience this reaction at depth. The brucite + antigorite dehydration reaction may be key for intermediate seismicity worldwide. Plain Language Summary: The Puebla‐Morelos (central Mexico) Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in an uncommon locality in Mexico compared to most of the catastrophic earthquakes that have occurred in this part of the world—it nucleated ∼250 km inland, almost below Mexico City. In this paper, we explore the role of mineralogical changes occurring in the Cocos tectonic plate, which is currently descending below the North America plate. Our model tracked the changes in the minerals within the rocks and show that the earthquake might have been triggered by the physical changes associated with the mineral reaction: brucite + antigorite = olivine + H2O. We suggest that this mineral reaction primarily occurred along faults in the subducting oceanic floor along which the mantle lithosphere was hydrated prior to subduction. The brucite + antigorite dehydration reaction may be key for intermediate seismicity worldwide. Key Points: The dehydration of antigorite + brucite has a positive total volume change and leads to fluid‐induced fault reactivationWe hypothesize that fluid‐induced fault reactivation triggered the Puebla‐Morelos 2017 earthquakeThe antigorite + brucite reaction only happens in highly hydrated regions of the upper lithospheric mantle [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geometry of continental fault systems, and more specifically the spatial organization of faults, is a central topic to understand how earthquake ruptures start, propagate, and stop. By exploring the origin of unexpected high frequency emission during earthquakes, Chu et al. (2021), (https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095271) show that the most likely source for these emissions is the interaction between nearby misaligned faults. Thus, this result emphasizes the discrete nature of the strike‐slip fault segments at seismogenic crustal scale, adding to a set of evidence for spatially structured fault systems drawn from independent observations in geophysics and geology. This observation should bring some new constrains to earthquake rupture scenario by limiting the range of possible ruptures included in these models. Plain Language Summary: The geometry of faults at depth remains difficult to document, although it exerts a critical influence on the way earthquakes propagate along faults. In the case of continental strike‐slip faults, a long‐lasting discussion questions if the ground surface complexity is matched by similar complexity at depth, or conversely, if the strike‐slip geometry at depth is smoother. In this paper Chu et al. (2021), (https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095271) bring additional evidence of the fault structural complexity. Such evidence could be related to other independent observations pointing in a similar direction of the existence of a specific spatial scaling for strike‐slip fault structures. Such scaling should be considered in the development of seismic hazard models. Key Points: Chu et al. (2021) interpret high‐frequency in earthquake spectrum as fault geometry signatureIndependent observations from various earthquake research fields hint at spatial structure of strike‐slip faultsThe spatial structure of strike‐slip fault should be included in earthquake rupture scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various earthquake models predict that aseismic slip modulates the seismic rupture process but actual observations of such seismic‐aseismic interaction are scarce. We analyze seismic and aseismic processes during the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence. High‐rate Global Positioning System displacements demonstrate that most of the early afterslip is located downdip of the M 8.1 mainshock and is accompanied by decaying aftershock activity. An intriguing secondary afterslip peak is located ∼120 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The area of this secondary afterslip peak likely acted as a barrier to the propagating mainshock rupture and delayed the M 7.6 largest aftershock, which occurred 27 hr later. Interevent seismicity in this secondary afterslip area ended with a M 6.1 near the largest aftershock epicenter, kicking the largest aftershock rupture in the same area. Hence, the interevent afterslip likely promoted the largest aftershock nucleation by destabilizing its source area, favoring a rate‐dependent cascade‐up model. Plain Language Summary: Subduction zone faults host both fast (regular earthquakes, seismic) and slow (aseismic) slip. Simulation models predict that slow slip can affect fast slip processes. We explored such an interaction taking place during the 2014 Iquique earthquake offshore northern Chile using observation data of crustal deformation by Global Positioning System and earthquakes. We discovered that the fast mainshock slip was terminated by a slowly slipping fault zone, which prevented the simultaneous occurrence of the largest aftershock. Furthermore, afterslip, one type of slow slip following the mainshock, helped the occurrence of the largest aftershock 27 hr after the mainshock. Therefore, the sequential occurrence of large earthquakes can be controlled by slowly slipping faults. Key Points: Global Positioning System captured crustal deformation during 27 hr between the 2014 Iquique mainshock and its largest aftershockThe mainshock and the largest aftershock areas are separated by an aseismic area, likely preventing both from rupturing as a single eventThe largest aftershock nucleation is a mixture of seismicity and decelerating afterslip, favoring a rate‐dependent cascade‐up model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic wave arrival time measurements form the basis for numerous downstream applications. State‐of‐the‐art approaches for phase picking use deep neural networks to annotate seismograms at each station independently, yet human experts annotate seismic data by examining the whole network jointly. Here, we introduce a general‐purpose network‐wide phase picking algorithm based on a recently developed machine learning paradigm called Neural Operator. Our model, called Phase Neural Operator, leverages the spatio‐temporal contextual information to pick phases simultaneously for any seismic network geometry. This results in superior performance over leading baseline algorithms by detecting many more earthquakes, picking more phase arrivals, while also greatly improving measurement accuracy. Following similar trends being seen across the domains of artificial intelligence, our approach provides but a glimpse of the potential gains from fully‐utilizing the massive seismic data sets being collected worldwide. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake monitoring often involves measuring arrival times of P‐ and S‐waves of earthquakes from continuous seismic data. With the advancement of artificial intelligence, state‐of‐the‐art phase picking methods use deep neural networks to examine seismic data from each station independently; this is in stark contrast to the way that human experts annotate seismic data, in which waveforms from the whole network containing multiple stations are examined simultaneously. With the performance gains of single‐station algorithms approaching saturation, it is clear that meaningful future advances will require algorithms that can naturally examine data for entire networks at once. Here we introduce a multi‐station phase picking algorithm based on a recently developed machine learning paradigm called Neural Operator. Our algorithm, called Phase Neural Operator, leverages the spatial‐temporal information of earthquake signals from an input seismic network with arbitrary geometry. This results in superior performance over leading baseline algorithms by detecting many more earthquakes, picking many more seismic wave arrivals, yet also greatly improving measurement accuracy. Key Points: We introduce a multi‐station phase picking algorithm, Phase Neural Operator (PhaseNO), that is based on a new machine learning paradigm called Neural OperatorPhaseNO can use data from any number of stations arranged in any arbitrary geometry to pick phases across the input stations simultaneouslyBy leveraging the spatial and temporal contextual information, PhaseNO achieves superior performance over leading baseline algorithms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambient infrasound noise contains an abundance of information that is typically overlooked due to limitations of typical infrasound arrays. To evaluate the ability of large‐N infrasound arrays to identify weak signals hidden in background noise, we examine data from a 22‐element array in central Idaho, USA, spanning 58 days using a standard beamforming method. Our results include nearly continuous detections of diverse weak signals from infrasonic radiators, sometimes at surprising distances. We observe infrasound from both local (8 km) and distant (195 km) waterfalls. Thunderstorms and earthquakes are also notable sources, with distant thunderstorm infrasound observed from ∼800 to 900 km away. Our findings show that large‐N infrasound arrays can detect very weak signals below instrument and environmental noise floors, including from multiple simultaneous sources, enabling new infrasound monitoring applications and helping map the composition of background noise wavefields. Plain Language Summary: Infrasound, or sound with a frequency below what humans can generally hear, is often produced by various earth processes. Compared to audible sound, infrasound can travel longer distances while retaining more energy, making it especially useful for remote monitoring purposes. Infrasound arrays are stations that consist of multiple infrasonic microphones, which use time‐delays between sensors to determine the direction of a wave's arrival. Using a greater number of microphones allows for the improved detection of weak signals, a technique referred to as "large‐N." Our study uses an arrangement of 22 microphones to locate sources of infrasound, such as waterfalls, thunderstorms, and earthquakes. Infrasound from waterfalls was identified at both nearby and distant locations, reaching almost 200 km. Thunderstorms and earthquakes were also recorded, with thunder infrasound coming from distances of nearly 900 km. Our results show that large‐N infrasound can reveal earth processes that may otherwise go unnoticed. Key Points: A 22‐element infrasound array is used to identify weak acoustic sources that could otherwise be hidden in background noiseInfrasound from thunderstorms, earthquakes, and both local and distant waterfalls is observedLarge‐N infrasound monitoring enables detection of distant waterfall infrasound, with potential applications in hydrologic monitoring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soils around the planet creep, despite wide variations in particle properties and environments. This sub‐yield "flow" of soil interacts with a variety of boundaries, in terms of geometry and friction. Here we explore the veracity of recent observations of undisturbed, gravity‐driven creep, by testing a suite of materials and boundary configurations in an experimental hillslope. Using an optical interferometry technique, we demonstrate that creep is a generic relaxation process whose qualitative dynamics are insensitive to grain properties. Velocity profiles are exponential, albeit with a defect near the no‐slip boundary. Quantitative patterns such as spatial variability and magnitude of strain rates, however, are exquisitely sensitive to the details of the experiment. The emerging picture is that creep is accomplished by localized plastic failure, which induces an elastic redistribution. Similar patterns have been observed in model glasses and on earthquake faults, indicating that sub‐yield relaxation in disordered materials may share common physics. Plain Language Summary: A while ago, we poured some glass beads into a box. Even days after we were done pouring, the grains still moved—but really slowly. This is creep. Our observations of "undisturbed" creep have aroused surprise and also suspicion from fellow geoscientists—in particular because experiments were conducted using glass beads, while natural soil particles are more angular and sometimes sticky. To help convince everyone that creep is robust, we dumped a bunch of different materials into an acrylic box over and over again. Sand, espresso grounds, yeast, clay—you name it, we dumped it. It all creeps, and it doesn't really matter whether the boundaries are smooth or rough. Key Points: Soil slowly creeps downhill due to gravity aloneCreep dynamics are robust across a range of granular materials and boundary roughnessGranular creep is similar to creep in glass and also localized slip along faults [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate spatiotemporal changes of intermediate‐depth earthquakes in the double seismic zone beneath Central and Northeastern Japan before and after the 2011 magnitude 9 Tohoku earthquake. We build a template‐matching catalog 1 year before and 1 year after the Tohoku earthquake using Hi‐net recordings. The new catalog has a six‐fold increase in earthquakes compared to the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog. Our results show no significant change in the intermediate‐depth earthquake rate prior to the Tohoku earthquake, but a clear increase in both planes following the Tohoku earthquake. The regions with increased intermediate‐depth earthquake activity and the post‐seismic slips following the Tohoku earthquake are spatially separate and complementary with each other. Aftershock productivity of intermediate‐depth earthquakes increased in both planes following the Tohoku earthquake. Overall, aftershock productivity of the upper plane is higher than the lower plane, likely indicating that stress environments and physical mechanisms of intermediate‐depth earthquakes in the two planes are distinct. Plain Language Summary: Intermediate‐depth earthquakes occur at 70–350 km depth below the Earth's surface. Because of the high pressure and temperature at such depths, the physical mechanism of intermediate‐depth earthquakes is still poorly understood. In this study, we try to obtain insights into this problem by investigating the behaviors of intermediate‐depth earthquakes before and after the 2011 magnitude 9 Tohoku earthquake. We build an intermediate‐depth earthquake catalog in Central and Northeastern Japan around the Tohoku earthquake. This new catalog contains six times more earthquakes and is more complete than the standard catalog used in previous studies. After analyzing the earthquakes from the new catalog, we find no significant precursory acceleration of intermediate‐depth earthquake activities prior to the Tohoku earthquake. However, we observe a clear increase in intermediate‐depth earthquake rate following the Tohoku earthquake. We also observe that the aftershock productivity of intermediate‐depth earthquakes increased following the Tohoku earthquake. The subduction slab beneath our studied area is characterized by a double seismic zone, and we find that aftershock productivity in the upper plane of seismicity is higher than that in the lower plane. This phenomenon may be due to differences in the environments or physical mechanisms in the two planes of intermediate‐depth earthquakes. Key Points: We build a new catalog of intermediate‐depth earthquakes in Japan 1 year before and 1 year after the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquakeThere is no significant increase in intermediate‐depth earthquake activities prior to the Tohoku earthquake but a clear increase after itAftershock productivities of double seismic zones increase after the Tohoku earthquake, and it in upper plane is higher than in lower plane [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismology is witnessing explosive growth in the diversity and scale of earthquake catalogs. A key motivation for this community effort is that more data should translate into better earthquake forecasts. Such improvements are yet to be seen. Here, we introduce the Recurrent Earthquake foreCAST (RECAST), a deep‐learning model based on recent developments in neural temporal point processes. The model enables access to a greater volume and diversity of earthquake observations, overcoming the theoretical and computational limitations of traditional approaches. We benchmark against a temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. Tests on synthetic data suggest that with a modest‐sized data set, RECAST accurately models earthquake‐like point processes directly from cataloged data. Tests on earthquake catalogs in Southern California indicate improved fit and forecast accuracy compared to our benchmark when the training set is sufficiently long (>104 events). The basic components in RECAST add flexibility and scalability for earthquake forecasting without sacrificing performance. Plain Language Summary: We explore the potential for deep learning in earthquake forecasting. Prior work has relied heavily on statistical models that do not scale to fully utilize the currently available large earthquake data sets. Here we build on recent developments in deep learning for forecasting event sequences in general to create an implementation for earthquake data. The new approach allows us to incorporate larger data sets, potentially with more information about each earthquake. We also avoid a specific functional form, so the method naturally adapts to additional information about events, like magnitude or variations in behavior over time. As we add more data, results show continued improvements. This ability to incorporate and improve continually as training data sets increase indicates that there is more information in the earthquake catalogs than has yet been used for earthquake forecasting. Key Points: We introduce a deep learning model for earthquake forecasting and explore its performance on synthetic and regional earthquake data setsIt is flexible in the sense that a predefined functional form is not requiredIt is scalable in two senses: it is efficient on large data sets, and its performance relative to benchmarks improves with more training data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 22 July 2020 Mw7.8 Simeonof earthquake was a deep megathrust event that ruptured along the Shumagin segment of the Alaska‐Aleutian subduction zone. This earthquake occurred ∼250 km from a seafloor geodetic GNSS‐Acoustic site IVB1, where we observed a velocity of 3.78 ± 1.15 cm/yr with the down‐going slab prior to the earthquake followed by 0.6 ± 0.7 eastward and −15.5 ± 0.8 cm northward coseismic offset. We computed a slip model of the coseismic rupture using the static offset at IVB1 alongside regional continuous GNSS and strong motion stations. The small static horizontal offset at the site precludes significantly shallower rupture than previously inferred from terrestrial observations, confirming that the Simeonof earthquake was a deep megathrust earthquake. The observed site velocity implies partial locking prior to the earthquake, implying significant shallow strain accumulation such that the small coseismic offset is unlikely to have relieved all of the accumulated strain since the last coseismic rupture. Plain Language Summary: The 22 July 2020 Mw7.8 Simeonof earthquake ruptured east of the Shumagin Islands along the interface of the Alaska‐Aluetian subduction zone, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American plate. This earthquake occurred ∼250 km from a seafloor geodetic GNSS‐Acoustic site IVB1, which acts as a seafloor GPS station and provides the only direct offshore measurement of seafloor deformation following the earthquake. In late September 2020, we observed 0.6 ± 0.7 of eastward offset and −15.5 ± 0.8 cm of northward offset at the station IVB1 and used this measurement to refine a model of the earthquake rupture area that previously only used the GPS and seismic stations installed on the nearby Aleutian Islands. The seafloor offset was not large enough to require additional rupture to the south of where previous studies have imaged the earthquake, confirming that the Simeonof earthquake was a deep megathrust earthquake. Prior to the earthquake, station IVB1 was moving with the down‐going Pacific plate with a velocity of 3.78 ± 1.15 cm/yr despite resting on the North American plate, implying that the two plates are partially stuck together. We expect that there could still be another future earthquake beneath IVB1 since the offset at IVB1 following the Simeonof earthquake was smaller than expected. Key Points: We observed seafloor offset at a GNSS‐Acoustic site along the Alaska subduction zone following the 22 July 2020 Mw7.8 Simeonof earthquakeAdditional slip updip of the main earthquake rupture area is not required to generate the observed seafloor offsetThe shallow plate interface was partially locked prior to the Simeonof earthquake and may still host unrelieved strain [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We deployed a dense geodetic and seismological network in the Atacama seismic gap in Chile. We derive a microseismicity catalog of >30,000 events, time series from 70 GNSS stations, and utilize a transdimensional Bayesian inversion to estimate interplate locking. We identify two highly locked regions of different sizes whose geometries appear to control seismicity patterns. Interface seismicity concentrates beneath the coastline, just downdip of the highest locking. A region with lower locking (27.5°S–27.7°S) coincides with higher seismicity levels, a high number of repeating earthquakes and events extending toward the trench. This area is situated where the Copiapó Ridge is subducted and has shown previous indications of both seismic and aseismic slip, including an earthquake sequence in 2020. While these findings suggest that the structure of the downgoing oceanic plate prescribes patterns of interplate locking and seismicity, we note that the Taltal Ridge further north lacks a similar signature. Plain Language Summary: Deformation along plate boundaries can occur seismically (i.e. through earthquakes) as well as aseismically (i.e. slipping slowly), and it is important to understand where each of these modes is dominant. Along the Chilean subduction contact, North‐Central Chile is the only place where aseismic deformation episodes have been observed so far. In order to study these processes in detail, we deployed and operated dense geodetic and seismological networks in this region. Analyzing the data collected by these networks, we find notable relationships between seismic and aseismic processes. Thousands of small earthquakes are found at the boundaries of locked regions, whereas no small earthquakes are found at their interior. Thus, implying such regions are mechanically coupled, that is, currently accumulating elastic deformation energy that will 1 day be released during a large earthquake. Along the North‐Central Chilean plate boundary, there is one region (around 27.5°S) that shows many signs of aseismic deformation. It is located where a chain of seamounts is being subducted, which is likely responsible for the different behavior of this segment. Key Points: Microseismicity catalog and map of interplate locking derived for the Atacama 1922 seismic gap in North‐Central ChileSeismicity in vicinity of plate interface coincides with downdip edge of high couplingSeismo‐geodetic signals due to the subduction of the Copiapó ridge are prominent but negligible for the subducting Taltal Ridge [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several experiments and field observations have demonstrated seismic waves‐induced permeability increases. However, a few experiments have revealed significant decreases in the permeability of fractured sandstone after shaking produced by dynamic stresses. In this paper, we analyze the tidal responses of the water level in two wells (Junan and Dingyuan) situated on and near, respectively, the Tan‐Lu fault in China. The results sampled by a single well indicate that seismic waves could both increase and decrease the permeability. In addition, our results indicate that the earthquakes that decreased the permeability in a single well were distributed in certain azimuthal zones. Given the azimuthal distribution of distant earthquakes, the observed permeability decrease could be attributed to the seismic wave‐induced clogging of fractures that compose the flow paths in the shallow crust. Our research contributes to an enhanced overall understanding of the effects of earthquakes on the permeability of the shallow crust. Plain Language Summary: Most hydrological phenomena caused by earthquakes can be explained by permeability changes. Many experiments and field observations have demonstrated coseismic increases in permeability. However, coseismic decreases in permeability have seldom been reported. In this paper, we analyze the tidal responses of the water level in two wells. The results indicate that seismic waves could both increase and decrease the permeability. In addition, we find that the earthquakes that decreased the permeability in a single well were distributed in certain azimuthal zones. Given the azimuthal distribution of distant earthquakes, the observed permeability decrease could be attributed to the seismic wave‐induced clogging of fractures that compose the flow paths in the shallow crust. Furthermore, we discuss the possible process of particle remobilization in a natural fracture network caused by seismic waves, as this process may be used to explain the azimuthal distribution of earthquakes that decreased the permeability. Our research contributes to an enhanced overall understanding of the effects of earthquakes on the crustal permeability. In the future, earthquake‐induced increases and decreases in permeability should be considered when discussing controls on permeability for exploring underground resources of groundwater, geothermal energy, oil and gas, and for safely storing nuclear and toxic waste underground. Key Points: Seismic waves could decrease besides increase the crustal permeabilityDecreases in permeability may depend on the earthquake azimuthThe decrease in the permeability could be attributed to the clogging of fractures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A devastating doublet of earthquakes with moment magnitude MW 7.9 and MW 7.6 earthquakes contiguously occurred in SE Türkiye near the NW border of Syria. Here we perform a potency‐density tensor inversion to simultaneously estimate rupture evolution and fault geometry for the doublet. We find the initial MW 7.9 earthquake involved discrete episodes of supershear rupture and back‐rupture propagation, and was triggered by initial rupture along a bifurcated splay of the East Anatolian Fault. The second MW 7.6 event was triggered by the earlier MW 7.9 event, and it involved more extensive supershear rupture along a favorably curved fault, and was likely stopped by geometric barriers at the fault ends. Our results highlight the multi‐scale cascading rupture growth across the complex fault network that affects the diverse rupture geometries of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet, contributing to the strong ground shaking and associated devastation. Plain Language Summary: On 6 February 2023, devastating dual earthquakes; moment magnitude 7.9 and 7.6 events struck southern Türkiye near the northern border of Syria. The two earthquakes were only separated ∼90 km and ∼9 hr apart. The strong shaking from the two earthquakes caused significant damage to the buildings and people, having caused over 50,000 fatalities in Türkiye and Syria. The source region is where the Anatolian, Arabian and African plates meet, developing the network of faults that hosted the large devastating earthquakes. Seismological analyses using observed seismic waveforms are effective for rapidly estimating how the rupture of the two earthquakes evolves over such distinctively oriented and possibly segmented faults. We use the globally observed seismic records to simultaneously estimate rupture evolution and fault geometry of the earthquake doublet. We find the sequence of both earthquakes involves curved and segmented fault ruptures, including the back‐propagating rupture for the initial earthquake, which is facilitated by the complex active fault network. The 2023 earthquake doublet displays the irregular rupture evolution and diverse triggering behaviors both in a single event and across the earthquake sequence, which provide critical inputs in both our understanding of earthquake‐rupture dynamics and better assessment of future damaging earthquakes. Key Points: An earthquake doublet of MW 7.9 and MW 7.6 ruptured multiple segments and curved faultsInitial splay fault rupture triggered a large MW 7.9 rupture involving pulses of back‐propagating supershear ruptureMulti‐scale rupture growth in a complex fault network may facilitate diverse rupture behaviors and triggering interactions in the doublet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Off Cape Muroto area, along the Nankai Trough in southwest Japan, is a typical area with adjacent occurrences of slow and megathrust earthquakes. High‐resolution monitoring of slow earthquakes is necessary to understand tectonic conditions. In the off Muroto area, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) measurement, which provides high‐density strain data, has been conducted using offshore fiber‐optic cable. We observed shallow tremors, a type of slow earthquakes, using DAS measurement for the first time. The characteristics of the tremor signals recorded by DAS were longer durations than those recorded in seismographs and composed of several phases with apparent velocities of several hundreds of m/s to several km/s that are coherent only in tens of meters. By combining DAS and seismograph data, we located these tremors around a subducted seamount peak. Therefore, spatial relationship between slow earthquakes and structural characteristics is suggested. This is a pioneering study of slow earthquake observation using DAS. Plain Language Summary: Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) measurement is a recent technology that uses a fiber‐optic cable as a strain sensor array. As DAS provides high‐density observation data, it has often been used for the observation of regular earthquakes in recent years. However, few studies have used DAS measurement to observe slow earthquakes, which have longer characteristic durations compared to regular earthquakes. We observed shallow tremors, a type of slow earthquake, using DAS for the first time off Cape Muroto, where slow and huge regular earthquakes occur in the neighboring areas. The characteristics of tremor signals in DAS data are long durations and composition of several phases with variable apparent velocities that are coherent only in tens of meters. We located tremors by picking the arrival of signals by visually checking the waveforms of DAS and an offshore seismograph network and locating them at the point where the difference between synthetic and observed arrival times was the smallest. Most tremors occurred around 134.7°E, 32.8°N, which corresponds to a subducted seamount peak; therefore, a spatial relationship between slow earthquakes and a subducted seamount is suggested in this region. Key Points: We first observed shallow tremors by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using offshore fiber‐optic cable in the Nankai TroughTremor signals of DAS are composed of several phases of variable apparent velocities that are coherent only in tens of metersSpatial relationship between shallow tremors and subducted seamount is suggested along the dip direction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition of subduction systems from postseismic to interseismic phase is an important indicator of their stress state and readiness for subsequent events. However, understanding the dynamics of this transition of megathrust earthquakes is hindered by the short instrumental time compared to the centuries‐long recurrence interval (T). Here, with an updated earthquake‐cycle perspective of global spatiotemporally limited geodetic observations, we use generic viscoelastic earthquake‐cycle models to explore the evolution of time‐varying surface deformation. Self‐consistently, our models reproduce key observed features of the deformation cycle, suggesting common processes activated at different margins. The relative postseismic and interseismic durations are found dependent mainly nonlinearly on the ratio of T to mantle viscosity, with a plausible range of ∼0.2–0.4T at representative margins and minimum >0.55T, respectively. Our results thus provide a useful tool for understanding the similarities and differences of earthquake‐cycle deformation and guiding monitoring of possible future signals at world‐wide subduction zones. Plain Language Summary: Following great subduction earthquakes, wholesale seaward motion is observed on the continental plate. So far, it is not clear how long it takes the fault system to reverse the surface motion to wholesale landward direction, which is its clear evidence of preparing for the next great event. The reason is mainly due to the short modern instrumental time (0.55T, highlighting the dominance of locking in EQ cycle [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On June 21st, a Mw6.2 earthquake struck the Afghan‐Pakistan‐border‐region, situated within the India‐Asia collision. Thousand thirty‐nine deaths were reported, making the earthquake the deadliest of 2022. We investigate the event's rupture processes by combining seismological and geodetic observations, aiming to understand what made it that fatal. Our Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐constrained slip‐model and regional moment‐tensor inversion, confirmed through field observations, reveal a sinistral rupture with maximum slip of 1.8 m at 5 km depth on a N20°E striking, sub‐vertical fault. We suggest that not only external factors (event‐time, building stock) but fault‐specific factors made the event excessively destructive. Surface rupture was favored by the rock foliation, coinciding with the fault strike. The distribution of Peak‐Ground‐Velocity was governed by the sub‐vertical fault. Maximum slip was large compared to other events globally and might have resulted in peak‐frequencies coinciding with resonance‐frequencies of the local buildings and demonstrates the devastating impact of moderate‐size earthquakes. Plain Language Summary: The June 2022 devastating M6.2 Afghanistan earthquake has caused a high depth toll, making it the deadliest earthquake of 2022. This is notable and partly intriguing as the earthquake size is much smaller than other events that happened in 2022. Therefore, we combine a range of geophysical, geodetic and geological methods to understand how exactly the subsurface ruptured during the earthquake. We suggest that it was a combination of the local circumstances (the event time, as it hit at night time, and the building stock) and the geometry of the rupture surface together with the local geology that made this event particularly deadly. More generally, this study shows the excessive hazard and impact caused by moderate‐size earthquakes. Key Points: We combine Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, moment tensor inversion, field mapping and Peak‐Ground‐Velocity (PGV) simulations to investigate the rupture processesThe event had a sinistral rupture with maximum slip of 1.8 m at 5 km depth on a N20°E striking, sub‐vertical faultCoincidence of large slip, fault geometry and alignment of rock foliation with strike enhanced PGV and the destructiveness of the event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subducting seamounts are recognized as one of the key features influencing megathrust earthquakes. However, whether they trigger or arrest ruptures remains debated. Here, we use analog models to study the influence of a single seamount on megathrust earthquakes, separating the effect of topography from that of friction. Four different model configurations have been developed (i.e., flat interface, high and low friction seamount, low friction patch). In our models, the seamount reduces recurrence time, interseismic coupling, and fault strength, suggesting that it acts as a barrier: 80% of the ruptures concentrate in flat regions that surround the seamount and only smaller magnitude earthquakes nucleate above it. The low‐friction zone, which mimics the fluid accumulation or the establishment of fracture systems in natural cases, seems to be the most efficient in arresting rupture propagation in our experimental setting. Plain Language Summary: Seamounts ‐ extinct volcanoes ‐ are ubiquitous features of the seafloor of subducting plates. During their descent toward the mantle, seamounts are squeezed between the overriding‐ and subducting plates, creating a geometrical and mechanical discontinuity that is thought to control the largest earthquakes that occur on Earth. It is not known, however, whether they trigger or arrest earthquakes, as a variety of observations have been used to support one or the other hypothesis. Here, we tackle this subject using scaled laboratory models that allow reproduction of large earthquakes. Our models support a scenario where subducting seamounts primarily arrest rupture propagation, limiting therefore expected maximum magnitudes. Our models also suggest that subducting seamounts might influence the recurrence time of large earthquakes by decreasing their frequency. Key Points: We investigated the effect of seamount subduction on megathrust earthquakes by isolating the role of geometry from that of frictionSeamounts act primarily as barriers to earthquake propagation, promoting small ruptures and decreasing seismic couplingReduced friction displays maximum barrier efficiency, a configuration likely associated with fluids or fracture systems in nature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic moment and rupture length can be combined to infer stress drop, a key parameter for assessing earthquakes. In natural earthquakes, stress drops are largely depth‐independent, which is surprising given the expected dependence of frictional stress on normal stresses and hence overburden. We have developed a transparent experimental fault that allows direct observation of thousands of slip events, with ruptures that are fully contained within the fault. Surprisingly, the observed stress drops are largely independent of both the magnitude of normal stress and its heterogeneity, capturing the independence seen in nature. However, we observe larger, normal stress‐dependent stress drops when the fault area is reduced, which allows slip events to frequently reach the edge of the interface. We conclude that confined ruptures have normal stress independent stress drops, and thus the depth‐independent stress drops of tectonic earthquakes may be a consequence of their confined nature. Plain Language Summary: Seismological stress drop is an important quantity for studying earthquakes that is usually interpreted as the change in frictional stress during an event. Frictional stress is expected to increase with depth in the crust due to the increasing weight of the overlying rocks. However, seismological stress drops of earthquakes do not show this behavior. This observation contradicts decades of lab experiments that show an increasing change in frictional stress with increasing pressure on the fault. We have built a new lab fault made out of transparent rubber, where we can directly observe slip and measure stress drops. We show that we can easily make slip events with seismological stress drops that are independent of the pressure on the fault. Events that do not reach the edge of the laboratory fault naturally keep the same seismological stress drop regardless of the experimental conditions. Conversely, events that reach the edge of the system have seismological stress drops that vary with pressure on the fault, much like the prior rock mechanics experiments that have always created this style of rupture. These new experiments force us to reconsider the appropriate interpretation of seismological stress drops and discourage inferences of friction based on this particular quantity. Key Points: Lab stress drops based on moment‐area scaling are normal stress‐independent for confined ruptures, mimicking depth‐independence in natureExperiments use a new laboratory fault with direct imaging of slip, control over normal stress heterogeneity, and fully confined rupturesSeismologically inferred stress drops may not reflect frictional stress changes and finite fault effects are a critical consideration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]