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The theory of optimum economic growth that has been developed in the past few years is concerned primarily with the division of the national product between consumption and investment in order to attain the pattern of capital accumulation which the society as a whole prefers to all the alternative schedules. It has been discussed within the conceptual framework originated with Frank Ramsey's classic work, where the basic premises are those of a planned economy within which decisions concerning the allocation of scarce resources are made by central planning authorities. The emphasis placed upon the role of centralized planning is partly due to the growing awareness, based upon both the prewar experiences of the more advanced countries and the postwar experiences of the less developed countries, of the inadequacy of the market mechanism to bring about the desired pattern of economic growth. In a static environment, the (Pareto-) optimality of the allocation achieved in a perfectly competitive market has long been established as one of the basic propositions in welfare economics, but the analysis has not been extended to the case of a greying economy, except for a number of studies originating with Samuelson and Lerner. The purpose of the present paper is to compare the relationships of the growth pattern achieved under the market mechanism with these of optimum growth, in terms of the analytical apparatus recently developed by Koopmans, Cass and others. The concept of optimum economic growth adopted here, however, differs from that commonly used in the optimum growth literature, where the welfare criterion by which various time-paths of consumption are compared with each other is assumed to be exogenously given, in general independently of the preference schedule of the members of the society. In the present paper, we shall instead postulate that the aggregative behavior of the economy may be described by that of the representative individual unit, possessing a... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY It is the purpose of the present paper to replace the traditional theory of industrial stages by a better model based on the criteria of capital and control. In constructing the new model we became aware of the fact it is necessary to distinguish between 'capital'-intensive and 'capital'-extensive industries and again within the latter between those which worked for local consumption and for the export trade, respectively. Only for the 'capital'-extensive industries working for the export trade something like stages in the industrial development can be discovered. In fact, the stage reached in these industries in the eighteenth century brought them organizationally close to the older 'capital'-intensive industries, so that for that period we subsume both under the head of protofactory. The protofactory of the model based on capital and control shows the essential characteristics of the factory, although in reality there were some elements distinguishing the protofactory from the full-fledged factory. In the second section of the paper we describe in detail the organizational features of the protofactory after clearing up the etymological confusion in that ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Der Beitrag zielt darauf ab, die traditionelle Theorie der industriellen Stufen durch ein auf den Kriterien ≪Kapital≫ und ≪KontroIle≫ basierendes, besseres Modell zu ersetzen. Beim Aufbau dieses neuen Modells zeigte sich die Notwendig-keit einer Unterscheidung zwischen kapitahntensiven und kapitalextensiven Industrien, welche letztere wiederum unterteilt werden mussen in solche, die fiir den einheimischen Verbrauch arbeiten, und solche, die fiir den Export produ-zieren. Nur fiir die im Export tatigen kapitalextensiven Industrien lasst sich so etwas wie Stadien der industriellen Entwicklung entdecken. In der Tat brachte das Stadium, welches diese Industrien im 18. Jahrhundert erreicht hatten, sie organisatorisch in enge Verbindung zu den alteren, kapitahntensiven Industrien, so dass fiir jene Periode beide unter dem Oberbegriff'Ur-Fabrik' (protofactory) zusammengefasst werden konnen. Das auf ≪Kapital≫ und ≪K.ontrolle≫ aufge-baute Modell der Urfabrik bringt wesentliche Merkmale der Fabrik zum Aus-druck, obwohl sich in Wirklichkeit die Urfabrik von der fliigge gewordenen Fabrik in einigen Punkten unterschied. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden die organisatorischen Grundziige der Urfabrik im Detail beschrieben; zuvor wird die in diesem Bereich herrschende etymologische Verwirrung geklart. Abschliessend wird gezeigt, dass weder der im organisatorischen Aufbau der Industrie tatige Geschaftsmann noch der zeit-genossische Okonom erfasst hatten, was sich vor ihren Augen abspielte. Es brauchte Jahrzehnte, bis der Industrielle die Notwendigkeit regelmassiger Ab-schreibungen erkannte, und der klassische Okonom lehrte noch lange die inverse Korrelation zwischen Lohn und Profit und die Vcrschiebbarkeit des Kapitals von Industrie zu Industrie, nachdem diese beidenfiir das putting-out system typischen Wesensziige mit dem Erscheinen der Urfabrik verschwunden waren. RÉSUMÉ Cet article a pour but, de remplacer la théorie traditionelle des stades industriels par un modèle meilleur, basé sur les critères de capital et de contrǒ1e. En construisant ce nouveau modèle, nous nous rendons compte de la nécessité, de distinguer entre industries intensives en capital et celles extensives en capital et ces dernieres de nouveau, en celles qui travaillent pour la consommation interne, et celles qui produisent pour l'exportation. C'est uniquement pour les industries extensives en capital produisant pour l'exportation, qu'on peut d^couvrir des soi-disants stades du developpement industriels. En fait, le stade atteint dans ces industries au dix-huitieme siecle les amenait du point de vue de I'organisation en relation étroite avec les industries plus vieilles et intensives en capital, de facon a ce que pour cette periode, les deux pouvaient ětre résumés sous le terme de ≪protofabrique≫. La protofabrique du modele, basee sur le capital et le contrdle met en relief les principales caracteristiques de l'usine, malgre que la protofabrique se distingue en realite en beaucoup de points de l'usine evoluée. Dans la deuxieme partie de cet article, les elements organisateurs de la protofabrique sont decrits en detail, apres avoir eclairci les confusions etymologiques. Finalement l'auteur montre, que ni le commercant actif dans le developpement organisateur de l'industrie, ni l'economiste classique contemporain ont saisi ce qui se deroulait devant leurs yeux. II a fallu des dixaines d'annees jusqu'a ce que I'industriel reconnaisse Futility d'amortisations regulieres, et l'econome classique enseignait encore longtemps la correlation inverse entre le salaire et le profit et Pajustement du capital d'une industrie a l'autre, malgre que ces deux faits typiques par le 'putting-out system', avaient disparu avec l'apparition de la protofabrique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY S olow's famous contribution to the theory of economic growth is based on the assumption that the savings proportions are the same for all income earners. In this study this restrictive premise is replaced by the assumption that the savings proportions vary according to the different groups of income earners. This paper sets out to analyse the resultant consequences for the long-run equilibrium growth. One essential result is that both the overall savings proportion and the capital-output-ratio are flexible. Their steady-state solutions are, in contrast to the respective solutions in S olow's original paper, dependent on the form of the production function. Moreover, there can be derived certain conditions for the special long-run equilibrium of the Neo-Classical Theorem, which are implying no specific restrictions on the savings proportions of the various groups. Besides, there is shown that on these conditions not only a maximum of total consumption per man is achieved but also an equal distribution of consumption among all groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY As a measure of society's marginal rate of substitution between consumption in consecutive years, the STP rate is basic to evaluating public investment alternatives. This paper derives the STP rate as a function of two 'observable parameters' (the growth rates of population and consumption) and three 'policy parameters' (the 'pure' time-preference rate, the elasticity of the utility-consumption function, and a population parameter). The equality of the rate of growth and the STP rate is shown to be only a very special case. The STP rate is unaffected by the relative shares of different income groups as long as the distribution remains unchanged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper intends to examine the role of intermediate products in a neoclassical model of economic growth. It introduces a pure intermediate good as a third sector in addition to the usual two-sector model involving a consumption good and an investment good. The pure intermediate goods are produced by capital and labor and are used as, in addition to capital and labor, another factor of production in the final goods sectors. I shall allow intermediate goods to be used in variable proportions; namely, it can be complementary or competitive to the other two factors of production. Thus, the paper can be viewed as dealing with a three-sector, three-factor model of economic growth.
This paper has introduced intermediate products into a neoclassical model of economic growth. The model consists of three sectors in which one sector produces a pure intermediate good. The intermediate goods are allowed to be used in variable proportions in the two final goods sectors. With a general Kaldorian savings function, the paper has examined the role of intermediate products in determining the growth equilibrium.
As we have shown, the total sectoral elasticities of factor substitution in general depend upon Allen's partial elasticities of factor substitution. However, in the special case where intermediate goods are used in a fixed proportion in a final goods sector, the total sectoral elasticity of factor substitution is shown to be a linear combination of the Hicksian elasticities of factor substitution in that sector and in the intermediate-goods sector. The aggregation which yields a total sectoral unit isoquant is diagrammatically demonstrated in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to derive sufficient conditions for the relative stability of the economic system in the presence of Hicks-technical progress, which may be neutral or non-neutral. To facilitate our analysis, we give a more general connotation to the equilibrium growth path by defining it as the path where the rate of growth of capital differs from the exogenously given rate of growth of labor by a constant rate, the difference being positive or negative. In this way, we show that the equilibrium growth path is stable even if capital stock grows slower than labor by a constant rate. * This paper, which was written in September 1969 while the author was Assistant Professor at Southern Illinois University, is a generalized version of our results in [2]. The financial support for this research came from a summer-grant by the Graduate School of Research at the Southern Illinois University. I am grateful to the referee for several useful suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins by formulating a finite horizon linear programming model for economic development. The formulation allows for heterogeneous capital goods and for nonnegativity constraints upon investment in each sector. It is then proved that a certain set of conditions are sufficient to ensure that an optimal solution to this T period, finite horizon plan will also coincide with an optimal solution during the first T periods of an infinite horizon plan. Among the restrictive conditions imposed to prove this sufficiency theorem are the following: gradualist consumption paths, no primary factors that cannot themselves be produced within the economy, a Leontief technology, and a characterization of the optimal finite horizon solution as one in which the terminal investment and output levels are positive. An illustrative numerical example is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the behavior of growth paths which are optimum with respect to the social welfare generated by consumption over a finite planning period. The principal result is the establishment of a (modified) golden rule turnpike property for such paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a simple theory governing the relationship between useful energy consumption and national output that explains why the adjusted elasticities found by two economists turned out to be greater than one. The theory is quantified by reference to a wide range of countries covering the whole spectrum of economic development and is tested against the actual experience over 20 to 25 years of individual countries. Conformity to the theory was very close and the efficiency-in-use coefficients computed by economists were found to hold good for periods of 20 to 25 years. Briefly, the hypothesis states that as a country moves through the various stages of its economic development from primitive subsistence agriculture to the ultimate state of fully energy-dependent production, its useful energy elasticity steadily falls from a high value tending asymptotically to one. By itself this proposition is of little use to energy forecasters, because it simply substitutes the requirement to predict energy intensiveness of output for the requirement to predict energy consumption. If we can satisfy ourselves that real GDP per capita is a good measure of energy intensiveness, however, then the relationship derived above can be used as the basis for a mathematical model linking useful energy consumption per capita with GDP per capita.

This article focuses on the adequacy of the growth record of the American economy in recent years. Within the past several years the question of whether or not the economy is advancing at a rapid enough pace has become a matter of serious interest to the general public as well as the economic specialist. This is true to such an extent that the economy's allegedly inadequate growth rate became one of the major issues in the 1960 presidential election campaign. The question of the adequacy of the growth performance of the American economy has been brought forcefully to public attention from a number of responsible and professionally competent sources. The central question in any discussion of the adequacy of the growth record of the economy is that of criteria. Evidence based upon per capita data rather than growth rates suggests that the economy's performance from 1944 through 1960 was relatively unsatisfactory. Real gains of sizable proportions were recorded in living standards as reflected in per capita consumption outlays, but the primary source of such gains was not the sustained growth iii the economy as a whole, but a large-scale shift in the end-use of the nation's total output. As the 1950's drew to a close, however, the possibilities of further progress in living standards from this particular source were becoming exhausted. The same holds for any future increases in the other major components of the output total, particularly investment outlays. In retrospect, therefore, the era 1945-1960 was primarily one in which the fruits of the economy's massive ware tune surge of growth were adapted to peacetime uses. It was not, an era of satisfactory growth.

The reception accorded the S.E.C. Special Study ranged from the vituperative to the lyrical. Interestingly enough, some of the more deprecatory comments came from academicians while some of the more glowing came from the financial community. On a previous occasion, together with a colleague, I indicated in some detail that perhaps the best-known of these criticisms--that by Professor Stigler attacking the ineptitude of the Special Study and the ineffectiveness of the S.E.C.--was without much foundation. As pointed out at that time, I consider the Special Study a competent and useful document and the S.E.C. a valuable and effective agency. Since the justification for this view has already been set forth at some length, it will not be necessary to repeat it here. The Special Study has already had a major and I think generally beneficial impact on the securities markets through new legislation, new regulations, and the intensified attention given both by the securities industry and the S.E.C. to the solution of both old and new problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

World War II and the subsequent release of suppressed consumer demand resulted in high levels of economic activity and prosperity for the American people. Observers generally agree that the economic status of the Negro, measured in absolute terms, improved significantly during the 1940's. Disagreement is more likely to arise about changes in the economic status of the Negro relative to that of the White. The purpose of this article is to refine existing estimates of the relative gains of the Negro during the 1940's and to investigate the effects of upward occupational mobility, geographical mobility and changes in the racial age-education distributions upon the relative economic status of the Negro during the 1940's. To accomplish this an expanded version of the occupational index will be used. The use of an index is necessary since income data, which are comparable between 1940 and 1950, are given only on a national basis. The use of such data would preclude any regional analysis, thereby making it impossible to measure the effect of geographical mobility. In addition, it is generally recognized that depressed business conditions have a greater impact upon the Negro worker than upon the White worker. The severe depression of the 1930's undoubtedly reduced the Negro's relative income below what may be considered its long-term normal value.

SUMMARY Power spectra and cross-spectra of Japanese economic annual series since 1879 or 1887 are estimated. The power spectral estimates suggest that long swings and business cycles are meaningful phenomena in many of the time series. Reference cycles of long swings and business cycles are determined separately from the remodulated series of the rate of change of the individual annual series at the frequencies of 1/25 cycle per year and of 1/6.5 cycle per year. They provide valuable information on Japanese economic fluctuations since the 1880's. The Rostowian stages of growth are considered in terms of these reference cycles. The cross-spectral estimates clarify the lead-lag relationships among the series. We find three key factors, loans and discounts of all banks, exports, and government consumption leading the other series and driving the rapid growth. Mechanisms of growth processes are explained by our lead-lag relationships. The transfer of labour forces among the industries and some characteristics of investment and private consumption are also considered by means of the cross-spectral estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The object of this article was not to demonstrate that income differentials are necessarily wholly or partly equalising--that is an empirical matter--but that they may be so, and that any comparison of income over space, time, social groups, industries or regions does not represent a comparison of productivities or of real incomes unless the possibility that the observed differentials are equalising can somehow be ruled out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]