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Cardiorespiratory fitness is an established predictor of metabolic disease and mortality. Fitness is directly measured as maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max), or indirectly assessed using heart rate responses to standard exercise tests. However, such testing is costly and burdensome because it requires specialized equipment such as treadmills and oxygen masks, limiting its utility. Modern wearables capture dynamic real-world data which could improve fitness prediction. In this work, we design algorithms and models that convert raw wearable sensor data into cardiorespiratory fitness estimates. We validate these estimates' ability to capture fitness profiles in free-living conditions using the Fenland Study (N=11,059), along with its longitudinal cohort (N = 2675), and a third external cohort using the UK Biobank Validation Study (N = 181) who underwent maximal VO2max testing, the gold standard measurement of fitness. Our results show that the combination of wearables and other biomarkers as inputs to neural networks yields a strong correlation to ground truth in a holdout sample (r = 0.82, 95CI 0.80–0.83), outperforming other approaches and models and detects fitness change over time (e.g., after 7 years). We also show how the model's latent space can be used for fitness-aware patient subtyping paving the way to scalable interventions and personalized trial recruitment. These results demonstrate the value of wearables for fitness estimation that today can be measured only with laboratory tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Non-contrast CT head scans provide rapid and accurate diagnosis of acute head injury; however, increased utilisation of CT head scans makes it difficult to prioritise acutely unwell patients and places pressure on busy emergency departments (EDs). This study validates an AI algorithm to triage patients presenting with Intracranial Haemorrhage (ICH) or Acute Infarct whilst also identifying a subset of patients as Normal, with the potential to function as a rule-out test. Methods: In total, 390 CT head scans were collected from 3 institutions in the UK, US and India. Ground-truth labels were assigned by 3 FRCR consultant radiologists. AI performance, as well as the performance of 3 independent radiologists, was measured against ground-truth labels. Results: The algorithm showed AUC values of 0.988 (0.978–0.994), 0.933 (0.901–0.961) and 0.939 (0.919–0.958) for ICH, Acute Infarct and Normal, respectively. Sensitivity/specificity for ICH and Acute Infarct were 0.988/0.925 and 0.833/0.927, respectively, compared to 0.907/0.991 and 0.618/0.977 for radiologists. AI rule-out of Normal scans achieved 0.93% negative predictive value (NPV) for the removal of 54.3% of Normal cases, compared to 86.8% NPV for radiologists. Conclusion: We show our algorithm can provide effective triage of ICH and Acute Infarct to prioritise acutely unwell patients. AI can also benefit clinical accuracy, with the algorithm identifying 91.3% of radiologist false negatives for ICH and 69.1% for Acute Infarct. Rule-out of Normal scans has huge potential for workload management in busy EDs, in this case removing 27.4% of all scans with no acute findings missed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Estimation of the risk of malignancy in pulmonary nodules detected by CT is central in clinical management. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) offers an opportunity to improve risk prediction. Here we compare the performance of an AI algorithm, the lung cancer prediction convolutional neural network (LCP-CNN), with that of the Brock University model, recommended in UK guidelines.Methods: A dataset of incidentally detected pulmonary nodules measuring 5-15 mm was collected retrospectively from three UK hospitals for use in a validation study. Ground truth diagnosis for each nodule was based on histology (required for any cancer), resolution, stability or (for pulmonary lymph nodes only) expert opinion. There were 1397 nodules in 1187 patients, of which 234 nodules in 229 (19.3%) patients were cancer. Model discrimination and performance statistics at predefined score thresholds were compared between the Brock model and the LCP-CNN.Results: The area under the curve for LCP-CNN was 89.6% (95% CI 87.6 to 91.5), compared with 86.8% (95% CI 84.3 to 89.1) for the Brock model (p≤0.005). Using the LCP-CNN, we found that 24.5% of nodules scored below the lowest cancer nodule score, compared with 10.9% using the Brock score. Using the predefined thresholds, we found that the LCP-CNN gave one false negative (0.4% of cancers), whereas the Brock model gave six (2.5%), while specificity statistics were similar between the two models.Conclusion: The LCP-CNN score has better discrimination and allows a larger proportion of benign nodules to be identified without missing cancers than the Brock model. This has the potential to substantially reduce the proportion of surveillance CT scans required and thus save significant resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Accurate mid-pregnancy prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) is essential to ensure appropriate surveillance of high-risk women. Advancing the QUiPP App prototype, QUiPP App v.2 aimed to provide individualized risk of delivery based on cervical length (CL), quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) or both tests combined, taking into account further risk factors, such as multiple pregnancy. Here we report development of the QUiPP App v.2 predictive models for use in asymptomatic high-risk women, and validation using a distinct dataset in order to confirm the accuracy and transportability of the QUiPP App, overall and within specific clinically relevant time frames.Methods: This was a prospective secondary analysis of data of asymptomatic women at high risk of sPTB recruited in 13 UK preterm birth clinics. Women were offered longitudinal qfFN testing every 2-4 weeks and/or transvaginal ultrasound CL measurement between 18 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. A total of 1803 women (3878 visits) were included in the training set and 904 women (1400 visits) in the validation set. Prediction models were created based on the training set for use in three groups: patients with risk factors for sPTB and CL measurement alone, with risk factors for sPTB and qfFN measurement alone, and those with risk factors for sPTB and both CL and qfFN measurements. Survival analysis was used to identify the significant predictors of sPTB, and parametric structures for survival models were compared and the best selected. The estimated overall probability of delivery before six clinically important time points (< 30, < 34 and < 37 weeks' gestation and within 1, 2 and 4 weeks after testing) was calculated for each woman and analyzed as a predictive test for the actual occurrence of each event. This allowed receiver-operating-characteristics curves to be plotted, and areas under the curve (AUC) to be calculated. Calibration was performed to measure the agreement between expected and observed outcomes.Results: All three algorithms demonstrated high accuracy for the prediction of sPTB at < 30, < 34 and < 37 weeks' gestation and within 1, 2 and 4 weeks of testing, with AUCs between 0.75 and 0.90 for the use of qfFN and CL combined, between 0.68 and 0.90 for qfFN alone, and between 0.71 and 0.87 for CL alone. The differences between the three algorithms were not statistically significant. Calibration confirmed no significant differences between expected and observed rates of sPTB within 4 weeks and a slight overestimation of risk with the use of CL measurement between 22 + 0 and 25 + 6 weeks' gestation.Conclusions: The QUiPP App v.2 is a highly accurate prediction tool for sPTB that is based on a unique combination of biomarkers, symptoms and statistical algorithms. It can be used reliably in the context of communicating to patients the risk of sPTB. Whilst further work is required to determine its role in identifying women requiring prophylactic interventions, it is a reliable and convenient screening tool for planning follow-up or hospitalization for high-risk women. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Objectives To develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of an older adult experiencing medication- related harm (MRH) requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Design, setting, participants Multicentre, prospective cohort study recruiting older adults (≥65 years) discharged from five UK teaching hospitals between 2013 and 2015. Primary outcome measure Participants were followed up for 8 weeks in the community by senior pharmacists to identify MRH (adverse drug reactions, harm from non- adherence, harm from medication error). Three data sources provided MRH and healthcare use information: hospital readmissions, primary care use, participant telephone interview. Candidate variables for prognostic modelling were selected using two systematic reviews, the views of patients with MRH and an expert panel of clinicians. Multivariable logistic regression with backward elimination, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was used to develop the PRIME tool. The tool was internally validated. Results 1116 out of 1280 recruited participants completed follow- up (87%). Uncertain MRH cases ('possible' and 'probable') were excluded, leaving a tool derivation cohort of 818. 119 (15%) participants experienced 'definite' MRH requiring healthcare use and 699 participants did not. Modelling resulted in a prediction tool with eight variables measured at hospital discharge: age, gender, antiplatelet drug, sodium level, antidiabetic drug, past adverse drug reaction, number of medicines, living alone. The tool's discrimination C- statistic was 0.69 (0.66 after validation) and showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the potential value of the tool to guide clinical decision making compared with alternative approaches. Conclusions The PRIME tool could be used to identify older patients at high risk of MRH requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Prior to clinical use we recommend the tool's evaluation in other settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To assess the feasibility and acceptability of the Howz smart home system for stroke survivors. Materials: Howz uses smart home technology to monitor users' activity in the home and machine learning algorithms to detect when their activity changes. This information made available to the user and a named contact (usually a family member) via the Howz app. If activity changes, an alert is then sent to the user and the named contact. Methods: Howz was installed in the homes of 19 stroke survivors who lived alone. The sensors installed; the number and nature of alerts; adverse events; any technical difficulties and how Howz was used were recorded. We also interviewed participants and their named contacts about their views and experiences of using Howz eight weeks after installation. Results: Installation was effective; no technological problems or adverse events were reported. All participants chose alerts regarding "getting up" and activity during the day and at night. There was a mean of 1.1 (sd 1.2) alerts/person. Participants found the system unobtrusive and were positive about it. They found it easy to use and would recommend it to others with stroke. The most frequently reported benefit was that Howz gave peace of mind for the users and/or the family/named contact that help would be at hand if needed. Conclusions: The Howz system was feasible and acceptable for stroke survivors. It gave users and their family an enhanced sense of security and peace of mind that help would be at hand if needed. Although most stroke survivors are elderly and often suffer physical, visual and cognitive disabilities which are often considered as barriers to using smart home technology, this project has demonstrated the well-developed smart home technology is feasible and acceptable. Users were able and willing to engage with the technology (to varying degrees) and had no concerns about invasion of privacy. The main benefit of the Howz system is an enhanced sense of security for the user and their family that help is at hand if needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess (1) the feasibility of incorporating the Ida Institute’s Motivation Tools into a UK audiology service, (2) the potential benefits of motivational engagement in first-time hearing aid users, and (3) predictors of hearing aid and general health outcome measures. Design: A feasibility study using a single-centre, prospective, quasi-randomized controlled design with two arms. The Ida Institute’s Motivation Tools formed the basis for motivational engagement. Study sample: First-time hearing aid users were recruited at the initial hearing assessment appointment. The intervention arm underwent motivational engagement (M+, n = 32), and a control arm (M-, n = 36) received standard care only. Results: The M+ group showed greater self-efficacy, reduced anxiety, and greater engagement with the audiologist at assessment and fitting appointments. However, there were no significant between-group differences 10-weeks post-fitting. Hearing-related communication scores predicted anxiety, and social isolation scores predicted depression for the M+ group. Readiness to address hearing difficulties predicted hearing aid outcomes for the M- group. Hearing sensitivity was not a predictor of outcomes. Conclusions: There were some positive results from motivational engagement early in the patient journey. Future research should consider using qualitative methods to explore whether there are longer-term benefits of motivational engagement in hearing aid users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Syndromic autism has been described in children adopted after orphanage rearing. We investigated whether the same existed in children adopted after family breakdown. Families of 54/60 adopted children aged 6-11 years (mean 102 months; SD 20; 45 % male) returned screening questionnaires for autism spectrum disorder (ASD); 21/54 (39 %) screened positive. Detailed in-person phenotyping of screen positive cases showed ASD in 6/54 (11 %), Broad ASD (sub threshold traits) in 10/54 (18.5 %); 5/54 (9 %) screened false positive. The ASD group showed impairments across both social communication and restrictive repetitive behaviour domains, Broad ASD was more mixed. These rates, much higher than population prevalence, are comparable with institutionalised samples. There are implications for developmental science, and assessment, treatment and policy for adopted children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]