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BACKGROUND: The continuous cultivation of rice–wheat in the same field is a key element of double‐cropping systems in the Indo‐Gangetic plains. Yields of such cropping systems are increasingly challenged as climate change drives increases in temperature, terminal stress and uneven rainfall, delaying rice harvesting and subsequently delaying sowing of wheat. In this paper, we evaluate the optimum sowing dates to achieve high grain yield and quality of wheat cultivars in northwest India. Three cultivars of wheat, HD‐2967, HD‐3086 and PBW‐723, were sown on three different dates at the research farm of ICAR‐IARI, New Delhi, to generate different weather conditions at different phenological stages. Different biophysical attributes, photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and transpiration rate, were measured at different phenological stages. Yield and grain quality parameters such as protein, starch, amylopectin, amylose and gluten were measured in different cultivars sown on different dates. RESULTS: Biophysical parameters were found to be higher in timely sown crops followed by late‐sown and very late‐sown crops. Further, the different sowing dates had a significant (P < 0.05) impact on the grain quality parameters such as protein, starch, amylopectin, amylose and gluten content. Percentage increases in the value of starch and amylose content under timely sown were ~7% and 11.6%, ~5% and 8.4%, compared to the very late‐sown treatment. In contrast, protein and amylopectin contents were found to increase by ~9.7% and 7.5%, ~13.8% and 16.6% under very late‐sown treatment. CONCLUSION: High‐temperature stress during the grain‐filling periods significantly decreased the grain yield. Reduction in the grain yield was associated with a reduction in starch and amylose content in the grains. The protein content in the grains is less affected by terminal heat stress. Cultivar HD‐3086 had higher growth, yield as well as quality parameters, compared to HD‐2967 and PBW‐723 in all treatments, hence could be adopted by farmers in northwest India. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the impasse climate‐informed development practices currently find themselves in. This is represented by the fact that while "solutions" to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance capacities for adaptation and resilience are increasingly adopted around the world, we have enough evidence to suggest that strategies adopted "from above" have been unable to engender transformations towards more just and liveable futures. Situating the paper within recent calls for a "post‐adaptation" turn in the field, I propose a generative critique of climate‐informed development through the lens of care as a place from where to begin thinking and practicing development differently. The aim of this critique is not to discard or discredit development practices as necessarily tainted or flawed but to make them accountable to a whole set of concerns and cares going into their stories of success or failures. Throughout the paper, I therefore speculatively ask the reader to think though the possibilities that may be opened when we stop treating climate‐informed development projects as neutral and undisputable "matters of fact," engaging with them instead as necessary and non‐innocent "matters of care." Thinking through a tryptic notion of "matters of care," as at the same time a neglected doing necessary for the sustenance of life, an affective state, and an ethico‐politics, I look at examples from semi‐arid areas of India to give visibility to those practices, relations, and emotions of care that have been marginalised by mainstream development circles. Through this shift in perception, a deeper understanding of vulnerability as a state of shared fragility emerges, one that grounds an ethico‐politics of climate‐informed development to concrete circumstances and becomes the foundation upon which more inclusive practices can be built upon. Situated within a post‐adaptation turn, this paper propose a generative critique of climate‐informed development through the lens of care. The aim of this critique is not to not to discard or discredit development practices as flawed but to make them accountable to whole set of concerns and cares going into their stories of success or failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among several devastating natural hazards, flooding is a common and serious threat to society causing huge loss of lives, properties, and infrastructure throughout the world. The intensity and frequency of this extreme weather event are expected to increase due to significant changes in the present‐day climate and land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. India has a very systematic and organized structural program and policies but lacks proper implementations, and adverse effect of climate change and the extreme event goes on in society. This paper is an analysis of floods in India and hazards due to climate change and LULC change patterns. Three models, namely "Eco‐biogeography‐based optimization (EBO), Random forest (RF), and Support vector machine (SVM)" were used to obtain the final output to prepare a "Flood susceptibility map". The result was validated through the "Receiver operating characteristics (ROC)" with "Area under curve (AUC)" values. The future rainfall scenario has been estimated by considering the "General circulation models" through different "shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)". The values of AUC are 0.915 (EBO), 0.887 (RF), and 0.869 (SVM), respectively. After consideration of different SSPs, the result shows that there is an increasing tendency of flood hazards in the projected period. Among all the employed modelling approaches, the EBO model has notable potential in delineating the possible flood‐prone regions for effective flood planning and management. Decision‐makers can benefit from country‐specific information and regional planner to implement sustainable and long‐term measures to overcome this type of hazardous situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment, development and abandonment and/or destruction of ancient civilizations were catalytically controlled by geomorphic features such as lakes and rivers and the climate. This paper examined the possible influence of tectonism and climate on six habitations of the ancient Vaigai River Basin civilization in South India, using multiple proxies such as grain size, geochronology and geochemistry of the sedimentary archives. The tectonic setting of the basin changed between the active margin and passive margin; the discriminant diagrams suggested varying provenance and changing climatic conditions over the mid‐ and‐late Holocene. Tectonic activism and quiescence, base‐level change in the channel morphology led to the burial/marooning of the first habitation surface. Overall, arid conditions were punctuated with catastrophic flooding and peak discharge (flood) destroyed the second, third and fourth habitation sites. These flooding events were characterized by moderate weathering (CIA) and high values of Al, Fe and Rb/Sr and low Ca/Mg in the sediment records. The abandonment/destruction of the fifth habitation also occurred during an arid interval (droughts), possibly caused by weak monsoon. Along with the interactions between tectono‐climatic and fluvial geomorphic factors, the new results provided avenues to (a) check and recognize the archives for 8.2 and 4.2 ka‐like events in this part of the world, and (b) the utility of integrated analyses to constrain on the civilizational histories of the mankind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Occurrences of extreme events, especially floods, have become more frequent and severe in the recent past due to the global impacts of climate change. In this context, possibilities for generating a near‐accurate streamflow forecast at higher lead times, which could be utilized for developing a reliable flood warning system to minimize the effects of extreme events, are highly important. This paper aims to investigate the potential of a novel hybrid modeling framework that couples the random forest algorithm, particle filter, and the HBV model for improving the overall accuracy of forecasts at higher lead times through the dynamic error correction schematic. The new framework simulates an ensemble of streamflow for estimating uncertainty associated with the predictions and is applied across two snow‐fed Himalayan rivers: the Beas River in India and the Sunkoshi River in Nepal. Several statistical indices along with graphical performance indicators were used for assessing the accuracy of the model performance and associated uncertainty. The modeling framework achieved the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.94 and 0.98 in calibration and 0.95 and 0.99 in validation for the Beas and Sunkoshi river basin respectively for a 7‐day ahead forecast. Thus, the proposed framework can be considered as a promising tool having reasonably good performance in forecasting streamflow at a higher lead time. Key Points: Hybrid hydrological model integrates process‐based model with machine learning algorithm through data assimilation techniqueDynamic error correction framework capable of improving the streamflow forecast at longer lead time is proposedOverall the developed framework improves the forecast accuracy along with quantifying the model prediction uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is an attempt to review the climate change phenomenon through the theoretical lens of "Political Ecology of Health." It identifies the strategic implications of climate change policies on health and well‐being in the Sundarbans region of India and other related factors which come into play in determining the health status there. It encapsulates the existing vulnerabilities observed in this eco‐sensitive region and tries to reflect on the community's perception of the climate change crises inflicted upon them. The paper presents a comprehensive review of current conditions in the region. In addition to utilizing electronic databases, the author also reached out to experts from pertinent organizations with related expertise to gather supplementary references. Adapting to climate change is crucial to cope with the changing surroundings and elevate competency. Since Sundarbans' adaptation strategies are intricately dependent on historical positionality, community behavior, gender roles, social capital, and ecoregion sensitivity, the well‐being and recovery in the community are very much context‐specific. Thus, it must give space to discourses of newer politics of adaptation, emerging from a rigorous ecological standpoint. Looking into the matter through the lens of "situated knowledge, political economy and socio‐ecological relationships" brought out important issues like land‐ownership conflict, fading away of the traditional knowledge system, conspicuous utilization of funds and a poor public health system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of ET0, and determination of its trend/variability and sensitivity to changes in climate variables is essential at regional scale for different applications. These are attempted for India by considering 18 homogeneous ET0 regions formed in companion paper. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recommends Penman–Monteith (PM) equation for ET0 estimation, which requires information on several climate variables. The equation cannot be used in data‐sparse areas where information/forecasts on one or more required climate variables is unavailable/unreliable. To address this, relevance vector regression (RVR) relationships are developed in this paper for the 18 homogeneous regions to arrive at FAO‐PM estimate of ET0 from subsets of its predictor climate variables, which could be typically expected in data‐sparse areas. The developed relationships are shown to be better in arriving at ET0 estimates when compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) relationships and three widely used empirical equations (Hargreaves, Mcguinness–Bordne, Priestly–Taylor). Regional trend analysis revealed that ET0 is significantly decreasing (increasing) in most regions located in north (south) India. Sensitivity of ET0 and surface runoff to changes in their predictor climate variables is determined for each region by considering third‐order Taylor series approximation of their functional relationships. Key climate variable(s) that govern ET0 changes in each region are identified. Results indicate that at annual scale solar radiation and relative humidity govern ET0 changes in regions located in south and north‐east India, whereas wind speed followed by relative humidity mostly influence the ET0 changes over other regions. Existence of evaporation paradox in four regions and validity of Bouchet's complementary relationship between ET0, actual evapotranspiration (ETa), and precipitation in 11 regions is also established. Significant divergence in trend of ET0 and ETa was evident in north‐east India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eka Nari Sanghathan (ENS), an Indigenous single women farmer's collective in Odisha, India and Norco Dairy in regional NSW, Australia are cooperatives undertaking collective action to 'survive well', securing agrarian livelihoods in the face of climate change. Striking differences in affluence and poverty separate these place‐based cooperatives while other things connect them: an Earth unsettled by climate change and extractivist/capitalist interventions. Both cooperatives transform place in practice by engaging similar survival strategies and non‐exploitative forms of cooperation. In this paper we seek to articulate the transformative nature of these places and practices in a way that goes beyond easy binaries of local/global, while enabling recognition of different affiliations between lands, related climate crisis and sustainable and shared surviving mechanisms. We develop a 'two‐thirds' perspective building upon Bruno Latour's third attractor, the Terrestrial, together with another third, Chakrabarti, Dhar and Cullenberg's idea of the World of the Third (WOT). Their interventions open our thinking to the ecological particularities, uncertainties, and postcapitalist possibilities of surviving well in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change arena comprises a diverse set of interacting actors from international, national and local levels. The multilevel architecture has implications for low-carbon technology deployment in developing countries, an issue salient to both development and climate objectives. The paper examines this theme through two inter-related questions: how do (or don't) low-carbon technologies get deployed in India's built environment, and what implications can be drawn from the Indian case for effective low-carbon technology development and transfer for developing countries? By examining the multilevel linkages in India's buildings sector, the paper shows how the interactions between governance levels can both support and hinder technology deployment, ultimately leading to inadequate outcomes. The potential of these linkages is hobbled by aspects of the national context (federated energy governance and developing-country capacity limitations), yet can also be enabled by other features (the climate policy context, which may motivate international actors to fill domestic capacity lacunae). Reflecting on the India case, the paper makes recommendations for improved low-carbon technology deployment in developing countries: (1) technology development and transfer collaboration on a 'need-driven' approach, (2) development of the specific types of capacity required across the entire innovation chain and (3) domestic strengthening of the coordination and agendas across and between governance levels. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate justice is a well used concept within the international climate debate yet it has often remained little more than a static ideal. Through an analysis of the work of a loose civil society coalition in India mobilising around climate change justice, this paper argues that we need to be more attentive to the emerging geographies of climate justice, particularly in the global South where climate change provokes questions of uneven development processes as well as environmental concerns. The paper shows how climate justice has been scaled as an international justice issue through public discourses, national policies and civil society engagement in India. I argue that this focus on international climate justice narrows the political space for alternative articulations and claims for climate justice. Whereas climate justice has tended to focus on the nation-state as the key actor in addressing climate injustice I argue there are multiple entry points to address climate injustices at different scales. To understand what is meant by climate justice beyond the international sphere requires an exploration of the multiple manifestations and scales of climate justice and geographers could offer a critical contribution to an understanding of what national and local climate justice would mean in practice. These ideas are already starting to be operationalised in development programmes and climate finance, and a spatially grounded geographical understanding is crucial to future policy in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kerala is one of India's most vulnerable states in India when it comes to climate‐induced disasters. Kerala's public health department grappled with a flood of unprecedented magnitude in August 2018. Situating the flood in the context of Kerala's state and society, this paper addresses three questions: What was the level of flood‐prevention preparedness? What were the public health effects and how were they managed? Finally, what policy lessons were learned? Drawing from reports of relevant national and state agencies responsible for disaster management as well as first‐hand accounts of nongovernmental organizations and media coverage, this paper argues that while Kerala's flood‐prevention preparedness was far from ideal, its postflood response in mounting a rapid and effective rescue and relief operation as well as in preventing a public health crisis was commendable. The paper also shows that impressive achievements in climate‐disaster health management can be achieved through a decentralized and participatory public health system in which coordinated public action is managed by a capacious state with the active collaboration of civil society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study was conducted to predict the current and future potential distribution of a tree species Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb. in Ranchi, Eastern India using ecological niche modeling. Nine environmental variables comprising of isothermality, precipitation of wettest and warmest quarter, annual temperature range, soil type, human influence index, elevation, slope and land use cover were used to model the distribution of the species. Climatic variables governed the predicted distribution of the species as they contributed 56.7% as compared to the other nonclimatic variables (43.3%). Northern parts exhibited the most suitable niche of the species as compared to south‐east and central parts that showed low probability of occurrence due to high disturbances caused by rapid urbanization as well as over exploitation of the species for timber, edible and medicinal uses. The average test area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) (0.921) as well as the partial AUC indicated good model performance. The projected change scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 for the year 2050 reveal that the climatically suitable areas will be drastically reduced in Ranchi. The population of the species is declining due to its exploitation from natural habitats for timber and medicinal uses and is listed as near‐threatened by the current IUCN‐Red lists. The findings of this paper will help to identify the potential habitats for further conservation of this near‐threatened species in the changing climatic conditions and increasing anthropogenic pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responses to climate change that build on adaptive natural resource management conceptualise social learning processes as having the potential to form a key component of climate adaptation. Social learning processes represent a way of managing the inherent uncertainties and interconnectedness of adaptation issues through ongoing learning, iterative reflection, and change of responses over time. Although the theoretical case is emerging for social learning as adaptation, there is limited empirical evidence of how these processes play out as local governments engage in urban adaptation planning. This paper starts to address this gap by examining social learning processes in two cities in India. We show how the social learning processes interact with complex governance contexts in the two cities and how evidence of outcomes is emerging across individuals, networks, and systems. We go on to argue that there are several areas of social learning that need further theorisation to support its application in the urban context. First, theories of social learning need to allow for unequal power relationships to continue to shape learning processes and take into account structural and historical dynamics as well as relational forms of power. Second, the way that scale is understood needs to be reopened as a point of analysis to understand how scalar concepts are used by actors to frame and locate problems and solutions rather than being understood as fixed and immutable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various transformative and curative measures have been undertaken as part of the disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation program to mitigate risks from extreme events in India. Studies have so far explored the causal relationship between these options and economic loss and damage; however, there is a gap in the context of non‐economic loss and damage in general, and drought in particular. This study, therefore, aims to investigate the role of risk management options in preventing economic and non‐economic risks from droughts in western India. Irrigation and crop insurance are found to be the most frequently used adaptive measures among the sample households. Overall, this study reveals that irrigation mitigates damage risks, whereas crop insurance fails to smoothen consumption, particularly the non‐economic risks, which is in contrast to expectation. From the policy perspective, the study recommends expansion of irrigated command area with a large‐scale adoption of resource efficient technologies, and revisiting the existing insurance mechanism for effective risk management and large‐scale adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uttar Pradesh, with a population of 237 million, is the largest agrarian state in India, located in the Indo‐Gangetic plains. Rice cultivation is widespread across all districts of Uttar Pradesh, which have varying climate regimes, irrigation infrastructures, crop management practices, and farm sizes. The state is characterized by different agroecological zones (AEZs) with semi‐arid to sub‐humid climates with significant variability in monsoon rainfall. In this study, the impact of climate change on Kharif‐season rice is estimated using crop‐climate scenarios in Uttar Pradesh. A process‐based Crop Simulation Model, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis‐Rice, was simulated with bias‐corrected and downscaled climate data for historical (1995–2014) and three future periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) for two mitigation pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Phenology, irrigation amount, crop evapotranspiration, yield, and water use efficiency were evaluated and assessed for all AEZs. Based on the ensemble of 16 climate models, rainfed rice yield increased in the AEZs of western Uttar Pradesh due to increased rainfall, while in eastern Uttar Pradesh yield decreased, under both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Irrigated rice yield decreased in all AEZs under both SSPs due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in the length of the growing period, with reductions of up to 20% by the 2090s. Irrigation requirements decreased from the 2030s to the 2090s due to increased rainfall and decreased crop evapotranspiration. Despite the projected increase in rainfed yield, the overall rice yield is expected to decrease in the future under both SSPs. Plain Language Summary: Uttar Pradesh is the most populated state in India, with most of the population working in the agriculture sector and having a low income. The state's vulnerability to climate change is high due to inadequate infrastructure and heavy dependence on agriculture. Rice is a crucial crop for the state, but this study shows that climate change will decrease rice yields in the future, especially for irrigated rice, due to higher temperatures and shorter growing seasons. While rainfed rice yields may increase in some regions due to increased rainfall, rice production is expected to decline overall. Key Points: Rice yield (combining irrigated and rainfed) in Uttar Pradesh, India, is projected to decrease in the future for SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5With a projected increase in rainfall, rainfed rice yield increases in rainfall deficit zones, and irrigation decreases under both shared socioeconomic pathwaysPlanting in the early season could reduce the amount of yield loss for irrigated rice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The paper uses an integrated assessment model, GCAM, to analyze two emission stabilization approaches for India - a conventional approach relying on carbon price to typically influence fuel switch and carbon capture and storage responses, and a sustainability approach that aims to conserve resources and deliver multiple dividends. An important feature of the sustainability approach is the focus on national policies to push solar and wind technologies. The paper concludes that sustainability push at a global level for renewable energy technologies is essential together with coordinated national policies and actions, if the 2 °C target is to be achieved with lower global welfare losses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that periodic waves of crowding-in to 'hot' issue fields are a recurring feature of how globally networked civil society organizations operate, especially in countries of the Global South. We elaborate on this argument through a study of Indian civil society mobilization around climate change. Five key mechanisms contribute to crowding-in processes: (1) the expansion of discursive opportunities; (2) the event effects of global climate change conferences; (3) the network effects created by expanding global civil society networks; (4) the adoption and innovation of action repertoires; and (5) global pressure effects creating new opportunities for civil society. Our findings contribute to the world society literature, with an account of the social mechanisms through which global institutions and political events affect national civil societies, and to the social movements literature by showing that developments in world society are essential contributors to national mobilization processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed ( U2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's urban transition is salient to the growing emphasis on city responses to climate change. While projected to experience the largest global urban transition with significant infrastructure investment in the next few decades, the welfare of Indian cities remains poor, which complicates the implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper traces, synthesizes and characterizes the emerging literature on Indian urban climate debates. It discusses the arc of urban climate efforts, from an initial emphasis on climate vulnerabilities and risks, broadening over time to include climate mitigation. The paper examines the governance forms and political motivations with which such actions are pursued in cities and finds three overarching characteristics: the use of local development priorities as an entry point to climate mitigation and adaptation; the role of nonstate actors in promoting climate‐relevant outcomes; and the proclivity for discrete project‐based activities. The paper suggests that while a range of Indian cities are beginning to consider climate concerns, a larger strategic understanding of the interaction between climate and development priorities, across policy and governance levels, is yet to be developed. The future trajectory of urban India's responses to climate change will be shaped by the institutional prioritising, linking and integrating of urgent local development and mitigation and adaptation goals. This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Urbanization, Development, and Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are positive effects on climate, water availability, and temperature that may be attributed to the presence of mangrove forests. In addition, mangroves provide natural infrastructure and protection to human communities that are located nearby by preventing erosion and absorbing the effects of storm surges caused by large weather events such as hurricanes. Regrettably, the disappearance of mangroves harms the ecology and the environment's viability. Using secondary sources and a descriptive approach to study, this article investigates the impact that the destruction of mangrove forests in India has had on the surrounding ecosystem. The research findings indicate that India's most significant contributors to environmental destruction are development activities and other reasons. Deforestation may lead to many negative outcomes, including changes in climate, a reduction in biodiversity, the destruction of habitat, and armed conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In contrast to the "wet gets wetter and dry gets drier" paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi‐arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub‐seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people in the region. Plain Language Summary: An apparent eastward shift of the Indian monsoon has led to the arid conditions in the west and north‐west regions of India where monsoon was once active, and the Indus Valley civilizations thrived (5,300–3,300‐year BP). A reversal of the process and a westward expansion of the present‐day Indian monsoon would transform the west and north‐west India to a humid "monsoonal" climate and provide food security to the expanding population of the country. The present study shows that the Indian monsoon is indeed expanding to the west with 10% decrease of mean rainfall in the northeast and 25% increase in the west and north‐west during the historical period with a potential of 50%–100% increase in the north‐west under SSP2–4.5. Harvesting the increased rainfall has the potential for significant increase in food productivity bringing in transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people of the region. Key Points: Global warming could potentially cause a westward expansion of the Indian monsoonRainfall in northwest India and Pakistan has increased and will continue to rise due to greenhouse gasesIncreased monsoon rainfall can improve food productivity and socio‐economic conditions in the region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current widespread and intensive soil degradation in India has been driven by unprecedented levels of population growth, large‐scale industrialization, high‐yield agriculture, urban sprawl and the spread of human infrastructure. The damage caused to managed and natural systems by soil degradation threatens livelihoods and local services and leads to national socio‐economic disruption. Human‐induced soil degradation results from land clearing and deforestation, inappropriate agricultural practices, improper management of industrial effluents and wastes, careless management of forests, surface mining, urban sprawl, and ill‐planned commercial and industrial development. Of these, inappropriate agricultural practices, including excessive tillage and use of heavy machinery, over‐grazing, excessive and unbalanced use of inorganic fertilizers, poor irrigation and water management techniques, pesticide overuse, inadequate crop residue and/or organic carbon inputs, and poor crop cycle planning, account for nearly 40% (121 Mha) of land degradation across India. Globally, human activities related to agriculture contribute to the transgression of four of the nine Planetary Boundaries proposed by Rockström et al. (2009): Climate Change, Biodiversity Integrity, Land‐system Change, and altered Phosphorus and Nitrogen Biogeochemical Flows. This review focuses on how knowledge of soil processes in agriculture has developed in India over the past 10 years, and the potential of soil science to meet the objectives of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 2: Zero Hunger (End hunger, achieve food security, improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture), using the context of the four most relevant Planetary Boundaries as a framework. Solutions to mitigate soil degradation and improve soil health in different regions using conservation agricultural approaches have been proposed. Thus, in this review we (1) summarize the outputs of recent innovative research in India that has explored the impacts of soil degradation on four Planetary Boundaries (Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss, Land‐system Change, and altered Biogeochemical Flows of Phosphorus and Nitrogen) and vice‐versa; and (2) identify the knowledge gaps that require urgent attention to inform developing soil science research agendas in India, to advise policy makers, and to support those whose livelihoods rely on the land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is the largest labour guarantee scheme in the world, offering 100 days of paid labour to every rural household. This article reviews the growing evidence base, assessing the extent to which the scheme can be said to contribute to resilience to climate change, based on its effectiveness as a safety net and driver of household accumulation, its ability to create assets which build collective resilience, and its support for transformations of exploitative social relations. The article concludes that the MGNREGA has already made a major contribution to resilience, but requires improvements in governance and state capacity to maximize its contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat fragmentation and isolation threaten the survival of several wide‐ranging species, such as tigers, through increased risk from diseases, disasters, climate change, and genetic depression. Identification of the habitat most likely to achieve connectivity among protected areas is vital for the long‐term persistence of tigers. We aimed to improve the mapping of potential transfrontier protected area corridors for tigers by connecting sites within the Terai Arc Landscape in Nepal and to those in India, highlighting targeted conservation actions needed along these corridors to maintain long‐term connectivity. We used least‐cost corridor modeling and circuit theory to identify potential corridors and bottlenecks in the study area. The landscape's resistance to tigers' movement was gathered from expert opinions to inform corridor modeling. We identified nine potential tiger corridors in the Terai Arc Landscape—Nepal that aligned strongly with the remaining intact habitats of the Siwalik landscape, which could facilitate tiger movement. Banke‐Bardia and Chitwan‐Parsa‐Valimiki complexes and Lagga‐Bhagga and Khata corridors were identified as high‐priority conservation cores and corridors. While our model exhibited congruence with most established corridors in the landscape, it has identified the need to enhance existing corridors to improve landscape connectivity. Several pinch points posing an increased risk to connectivity were identified. Most of these were located near the protected area boundaries and along the Nepal–India border. The Siwalik landscape holds the key to long‐term connectivity in the study area; however, immediate conservation attention is needed, particularly at pinch points, to secure this connectivity for tigers. Validation of identified corridors through empirical research and their conservation is a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grazing by large mammalian herbivores impacts climate as it can favor the size and stability of a large carbon (C) pool in the soils of grazing ecosystems. As native herbivores in the world's grasslands, steppes, and savannas are progressively being displaced by livestock, it is important to ask whether livestock can emulate the functional roles of their native counterparts. While livestock and native herbivores can have remarkable similarity in their traits, they can differ greatly in their impacts on vegetation composition which can affect soil‐C. It is uncertain how these similarities and differences impact soil‐C via their influence on microbial decomposers. We test competing alternative hypotheses with a replicated, long‐term, landscape‐level, grazing‐exclusion experiment to ask whether livestock in the Trans‐Himalayan ecosystem of northern India can match decadal‐scale (2005–2016) soil‐C stocks under native herbivores. We evaluate multiple lines of evidence from 17 variables that influence soil‐C (quantity and quality of C‐input from plants, microbial biomass and metabolism, microbial community composition, eDNA, veterinary antibiotics in soil), and assess their inter‐relationships. Livestock and native herbivores differed in their effects on several soil microbial processes. Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) was 19% lower in soils under livestock. Compared to native herbivores, areas used by livestock contained 1.5 kg C m−2 less soil‐C. Structural equation models showed that alongside the effects arising from plants, livestock alter soil microbial communities which is detrimental for CUE, and ultimately also for soil‐C. Supporting evidence pointed toward a link between veterinary antibiotics used on livestock, microbial communities, and soil‐C. Overcoming the challenges of sequestering antibiotics to minimize their potential impacts on climate, alongside microbial rewilding under livestock, may reconcile the conflicting demands from food‐security and ecosystem services. Conservation of native herbivores and alternative management of livestock is crucial for soil‐C stewardship to envision and achieve natural climate solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the distributional heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on yields of three major cereal crops: rice, maize, and wheat in India using district‐level information for the period 1966–2015. We distinguish between the effects of changes in growing season weather from those due to changes in long‐term climate trends and the heterogeneity in these effects across the distribution of crop yields by estimating naïve and climate penalty inclusive models using fixed‐effect quantile panel models. We observe an absence of adaptation against rising temperatures for rice and wheat. However, we find a statistically significant presence of adaptation for wheat and maize for changes in precipitation, though the magnitude is small. Moreover, we find that the effects are asymmetric, and are larger at the lower tail of productivity distribution and smaller at the upper tail of the distribution. A 1°C increase in temperature lowers rice and wheat productivity by 23% and 9%, respectively at the first quantile, but the damage is only 6% and 5% at the ninth quantile. Heterogeneity in impacts and adaptation estimates over the yield distribution curve and across crops suggests the importance of customizing strategies for adaptation to changing weather and climate conditions across regions, crops, and current productivity levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geochemical study in the siliciclastic sediments of a basin provides an understanding of palaeoclimate, provenance and subsequently, it can be used to reconstruct the palaeo‐tectonics and evolution of the basin. Sedimentation in the Gondwana basins, worldwide, generally provides a record of climatic fluctuations and evidences of the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction. In spite of its global importance, our knowledge about the nature of sedimentation, basin development and conceptual regional tectonic model in the Satpura Basin, one of the Gondwana basins of India is limited. Major and trace element concentrations of the mudstones from the Denwa Formation along with the existing geochemical data of other formations are studied here for establishing a comprehensive idea about the palaeoclimate, tectonic settings, provenance and basin evolution. The composition of the sediments in the lowermost Talchir Formation revealed cold and dry climatic conditions at the sources, whereas the sources of the sediments for the overlying formations have experienced warm, humid and semiarid climates. The contributions of the mafic rock‐derived sediments are relatively higher in the Talchir, Barakar and Motur formations compared to the overlying formations. Approximately 60% of the sediments in the overlying Bijori, Pachmarhi and Denwa formations were derived from the felsic volcanic rocks and granites of the Sausar Mobile Belt and Betul‐Chindwara Mobile Belt (BCMB) with minor inputs from mafic volcanic rocks of the BCMB. Furthermore, the sediments of the Talchir Formation were derived from the BCMB when they became tectonically active, whereas the sediments in the younger formations have been derived from a passive tectonic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation, extending over 96 million hectares is a primary ecological issue for India that has resulted in catastrophic biodiversity loss and exacerbated extreme weather occurrences. One of the major sources of land degradation is large‐scale coal mining to realize country's expanding energy demands. By 2050 climate change and land degradation, will result in US$1730 billion loss for India. Climate COP in Glasgow, 2021 was a watershed event to confront broader climate change challenges. India made one of the boldest pledges to pursue the road of climate justice, protect the most vulnerable, and committed to achieving net‐zero emissions by 2070. This means gradually phasing down coal, reducing emissions and mainstreaming renewable sources. Given the prospect of five challenging but attainable targets, we examine India's readiness and the ramifications of these targets on land degradation reduction. Indian government is continuously increasing strategic support for improved mine closure and mine void restoration while, ensuring that land restoration supports 'green' job creation for poverty alleviation. While there is focus on investing significant amounts of national funding to address land degradation, international and private finances can enable to accomplish the larger goals. To enhance the effectiveness of the promises, we propose embedding diverse knowledge systems including indigenous knowledge systems and capabilities by formulating policies that incentivize environmental restoration, people‐centric, climate sensitive strategies, convergence between different government departments as well as schemes, and mainstreaming of systems thinking as a social transformation approach for achieving coupled Climate and Land Degradation Neutrality targets by 2030 and 2070. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Rugose spiraling whitefly (RSW), Aleurodicus rugioperculatus Martin, is a highly polyphagous invasive pest native to Central America. The occurrence of A. rugioperculatus in the Oriental region was first reported from Pollachi, Tamil Nadu, India in 2017. This pest is widely distributed in India, causing severe economic damage to coconut and other horticultural crops. It is a recent invasion in India and information on its potential distribution is lacking. Thus, in the present study we used the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset through Maximum Entropy species distribution modelling (version 3.4.1, MaxEnt) to determine the potential distribution of RSW in present and future climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 126 and SSP585 emission scenarios. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS) and the continuous Boyce index (CBI). RESULTS: The MaxEnt model performed well and predicted the potential distribution of A. rugioperculatus with high‐accuracy AUC values of 0.991 and 0.989, TSS values of 0.891 and 0.842, and CBI values of 0.972 and 0.934 for training and testing, respectively. Jackknife analysis revealed that A. rugioperculatus distribution was mostly influenced by temperature‐based bioclimatic variables contributing 62.1% of the suitability, with precipitation variables contributing the remainder. The most important bioclimatic variables for RSW distribution were annual mean temperature (Bio 1, 28.9%) followed by mean diurnal range (Bio 2, 19.5%) and annual precipitation (Bio 12, 19.1). Potential suitable areas for RSW establishment were mostly found in all coastal and southern states of India. A. rugioperculatus prefers a warm and humid climate, indicating that the tropics, subtropics and temperate regions are ideal for its spread and invasion. Our results highlighted that the suitable habitat area for A. rugioperculatus is predicted to increase and highest probability of invasion and spread in 2050 and 2070 under future climate change scenarios of SSP126 and SSP585 compared to present climatic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to use the latest CMIP6 models and it predicts the potential distribution of RSW in India under present and future climate change scenarios. The implementation of strict domestic quarantine measures may prevent the spread and damage of RSW to noncoastal regions of India. The results of the current study should help in timely monitoring and surveillance of RSW and to formulate integrated pest management strategies at the national level to restrict its spread, invasion and damage to new areas. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the projected heatwaves for India using 0.25° × 0.25° summer mean temperature data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 simulations for 2016–2100. The heatwaves were delineated using count and density‐based indices. A new approach of using medians of past as threshold for computing projected variables was introduced to amplify the footprint of the warming signal on the heatwaves. Further, spatio‐climatic heterogeneity of India was accounted through optimizing climatic zones using the fuzzy c‐mean clustering technique. Temporal homogeneity, trend, intensification and attribution of the heatwave variables were computed and analysed. Additionally, the scenario uncertainty was partitioned from the internal climatic variability, and consequently the variables were modelled within a probabilistic framework. Within this probabilistic framework, a novel concept of intensification ratio was introduced to capture the cost of climate action/inaction on heatwaves in India. All the heatwave variables except heatwave count have breaks in homogeneity between 2045 and 2055 and show predominantly increasing trends. While heatwave count shows an intensification of 4–6 times over the past, with 70% of the intensification being attributable to climate change, for other variables, the figures are 35–30 times and 95%. The scenario uncertainty surpasses the internal climatic variability around 2050. The probabilistic framework yields normalized values of uncertainty mostly below 0.5, enhancing the applicability of the results. Finally, the intensification ratio shows that climate inaction will intensify the heatwaves for ~75% of India by ~50–100%. The intensification of heatwave density over its count and relative accentuation of heatwaves resulting from climate inaction are the major takeaways from this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bedrock gorges occurring on the Indian Peninsula are sites of intense erosive activity where thick sequences of fluvial sediments are conspicuously absent. We identified unusually thick and coarse fluvial sequences within the Dhadgaon (DG) gorge in the lower reaches of the Narmada River in central India. Stratigraphic interpretations, sediment character and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages revealed episodic aggradation at ~70 ka and ~28 ka in response to tectonically induced steepening of the upstream channel gradient. Incision of the DG gorge and sedimentation of the alluvial fan downstream was facilitated by a climatically induced decrease in the sediment supply/discharge ratio in addition to the tectonic slope. The final evacuation of sediments from the DG gorge and incision of the Banganga channel occurred during the early Holocene. Collectively, the results show a major influence of tectonics, hillslope processes and lithology on aggradation–incision patterns supported by climatic conditions during the late Quaternary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding synergies and trade‐offs between forests, water, and climate change is warranted for designing effective policies and strategies for managing water and forests, which are essential for sustenance, ecological proliferation, and economic development. Forests are considered global storehouse of resources, functioning as ecosystem service providers, such as recyclers of terrestrial water to maintain quality and quantity of water but are constantly regulated by climatic parameters. These interlinkages are further complicated by the highly debated role of forests in water regulation and consumption, anthropogenic changes in land use, changing climatic patterns and their subsequent impacts on the hydrological cycle. However, policy and planning for natural resource management seldom consider the interrelationships between forest, water, and climate change due to lack of consensus, misrepresentations and difficult conversions of the complicated interactions to policy. We review and discuss the existing research on these interrelationships with different approaches using a range of hydrological, climatic, and land use indicators. We further suggest incorporating long‐term data for forest, water, and climate into conceptual, statistical, and stochastic models may yield better projections with fewer uncertainties rather than those focusing on linear interactions between paired components. Thus, there is a need for exploring these interactions holistically rather than in silos from the perspective of natural resource management particularly in developing nations such as India that have a pressing need to develop new and synergize existing strategies for sustainable management of forest and water under changing climatic variables. This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Hydrological ProcessesScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary global crises and transformations—including climate change, migration, digitalization, pandemics, financial and economic integration, and terrorism—increasingly determine democratic politics and policymaking. We examine how populist attitudes are associated with perceptions of the threats posed by these six global crises and transformations. Using original survey data in India and the United Kingdom alongside secondary data in the United Kingdom, we robustly show that stronger populist attitudes are positively associated with the perception of threat posed by all six crises and transformations—particularly to the economy and national way of life, but also, of theoretical note, to humanitarian concerns. Furthermore, experimentally priming populist individuals on global governance solutions to each transformation has no effect on their perception of threat, suggesting that such threat perceptions are not driven by political concerns but by the societal crises and transformations themselves. Overall, our findings theoretically support the ideational conceptualization of populism as a thin ideology, distinct from nationalism or left‐right attitudes, which acts as a broad, if thin, political psychological predisposition. Substantially, we cautiously argue that our findings may give cause for optimism about the potential to rally popular support for global governance solutions to global challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the past and future changes in precipitation extremes and quantifies the relative contributions from its frequency and intensity across India, considering five extremeness levels, denoted by 95th, 99th, 99.9th, 99.95th, and 99.97th percentile. Gridded station‐based observations from the historical period (1951–2020) and simulations from 14 General Circulation Models for the future (2021–2100), participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are considered. Apart from an overall increasing pattern of precipitation extremes, it is noticed that the contribution of frequency dominates over intensity. Specifically, the frequency of 99th percentile daily rainfall is projected to increase approximately by two‐ (SSP245) to three‐ (SSP585) times in future. We also proposed a new zoning of entire Indian mainland, identified as six Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs). HPZ‐wise analysis reveals that the increase in frequency dominates over intensity for all the HPZs with a varying extent. For instance, increase in frequency is more for the climatologically high‐precipitation zones (HPZ‐3: Western Ghats, and HPZ‐6: North‐east India), whereas increase in intensity is more for the low‐precipitation zones (HPZ‐1: North‐west India, and HPZ‐4: Peninsular India). The degree of increase gets even more pronounced under the worst scenario SSP585, indicating a potential impact of anthropogenic activities on changing precipitation extremes. Findings of this study should be accounted in the climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for future. Plain Language Summary: There are different characteristics of extreme precipitation, such as how frequent they occur, its intensity. Owing to change in climate, these characteristics are changing as time passes, as well as from one location to another location. How has it been changed in the past and how will it be changing in future? Is there any link with the nature of rainfall in a region? These are the focus of this study. We considered entire Indian mainland as our study domain that spans across a wide range of climatology. Overall, it is noted that both frequency and intensity are increasing and it is going to increase further in future. Moreover, frequency is increasing more rapidly than intensity. However, this finding varies from region to region. The regions that receive high precipitation, in general, may experience maximum increase in frequency (northeast and western ghats region in India), whereas the regions with relatively low precipitation may experience maximum increase in intensity (southern peninsular India). Such findings are expected to be useful in many applications related to climate change impacts on water sector. Key Points: Both frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are increasing with spatial variation and it is going to increase further in futureIn general, change in the characteristics of precipitation extremes is dominated by increase in frequency rather than intensityHigh precipitation regions experience an increase in frequency and low precipitation regions experience an increase in intensity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indus Basin is the second largest river basin in Asia shared by China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Rapid climatic changes and exponential population growth have put tremendous pressure on the already depleting water resources in Indus Basin. The absence of supra‐national authority and a basin‐wide cooperation agreement is further exaggerating Basin's challenges. Moreover, an already existing Indus Water Treaty, a bilateral treaty signed between India and Pakistan is proving to be insufficient to regulate the water supply amidst the growing political tensions among the Indus riparian. To address this cross‐boundary issue, armed with game theory‐based strategies, this research proposes optimal water allocation solutions. The study adopted Bankruptcy and Asymmetric Nash bargaining solutions to determine optimal water allocations/Pareto‐optimal solutions. The results show that the optimal allocation for Pakistan and India are 181.95 and 101.95 km3 respectively, while for Afghanistan and China, the optimal allocation was found to be 2.99 and 0.11 km3 respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the water allocations of Pakistan and India are sensitive to their respective changes in water claims, while insensitive to the changes in water claim of Afghanistan and China. The findings of the study can be used for negotiations and have the potential to serve as a major tool in bringing stability in the region by allocating the water optimally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation as one of the mega drivers of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services has affected billions globally, resulting in rampant loss of livelihoods and accelerated distress migration. India, one of the land degradation hotspots in Asia, has also been reeling under the impacts of the ongoing climate and pandemic crises, which have seriously imperiled local livelihoods and human well‐being. Boosting livelihood‐based social support programs can be a transformative approach to scale up Nature‐based Solutions to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality and to realize global restoration, climate, and biodiversity conservation goals. In this article, we provide evidence for enhancing landscape restoration success by creating green job opportunities to achieve post‐pandemic recovery. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) was initiated as a poverty alleviation program in India and can be transformative approach to achieve global climate and sustainable development goals. We use cases from diverse ecological contexts of India to demonstrate the potential of MGNREGS. To revolutionize the process, we propose developing and mainstreaming national‐level landscape restoration guidelines by using locally relevant knowledge for addressing critical gaps, identifying institutions and their roles, developing local capacity, leveraging technology to facilitate decision‐making, encouraging multi‐stakeholder involvement, and promoting inclusiveness and community participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on multivariate drought assessment and the climate change impact on a river basin scale are limited in India. Drought monitoring is a challenging subject due to its dependence on different climatic variables. To overcome this, a copula‐based probabilistic multivariate drought index (MDI) has been developed which simultaneously represents the meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought phenomenon. The four variate Archimedean copula is used in this study to integrate the precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow. Hydrologic variables like evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow were simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The future MDI is also analysed to identify the impact of climate change on drought phenomenon using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐6 Global Climate Models under four Socio‐Economic Shared Pathways. Drought characteristics like severity and duration were evaluated to identify the present and future drought events. The precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures were identified to have increasing tendencies in the future scenarios. Most of the future scenarios showed lower drought duration and severity when compared to the reference period. The drought duration and severity are likely to decrease in the future time scales especially under the high emission scenarios. The present study used a novel approach to examine the drought from various perspectives and the study will be useful for drought mitigation and adaptation strategies over the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The signal of temperature change has emerged from background variations in most tropical regions in boreal summer over decadal‐centennial timescales but not in northern‐central India (NCI). In this study, we investigated the reason for the limited temperature change in NCI. We found that internal variability, largely caused by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on a ∼20‐year timescale, has the potential to mask the temperature change signal. Besides, local response to external forcing, linked to non‐greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, strongly overrides GHG warming in NCI, which results in little trend in the temporal evolution of external variability. The internal variability related to IPO and the limited warming arising from the competition between multiple forcings result in the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio and thus, the temperature change signal fails to emerge from the background variations. Plain Language Summary: Earth's surface has warmed considerably since 1850s, which can be largely attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. When human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) cause the local temperature change to exceed the inherent variation of the climate system, the region will face more extreme climate events. Although temperature has experienced warming almost all around the globe, here we show that surface air temperature in boreal summer in northern‐central India has not gone through significant changes. The timing of transition is important for policymakers. Thus, we analyzed the reasons for this and show that it reflects the combined effects of natural processes and local anthropogenic forcings. Key Points: The external forcing exhibits a cooling trend in northern‐central India (NCI), whereas most global regions have warmed considerablyCooling effects of non‐greenhouse gas forcings that override global warming lead to a cooling trend in NCIThe internal variability related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the limited warming cause the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is happening, and we have been forewarned of the consequences. Since it is caused largely by human action, a lot can be done to avert the detrimental consequences. But getting political support for action is difficult because the hardest‐hit people are marginalized groups that have little political power, including indigenous communities. Greta Thunberg and groups that agree with her view are emerging worldwide to promote action; nevertheless, the magnitude of public response and action is inadequate. This article highlights the adversities caused by the climate emergency in India and the efforts of indigenous communities to take effective action. In its conclusion, this article makes suggestions about ways to respond appropriately to the climate emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's per capita contribution of carbon emissions is well below the world average, yet it suffers disproportionately from rising temperatures. Thus, many Indians share the sense of urgency that Greta Thunberg exhibits when she demands that nations make stronger commitments to limit carbon emissions. India's monsoon‐dependent agriculture is highly vulnerable to any change in weather patterns, but the land irrigated by groundwater is also threatened. The projected rise in annual peak temperatures, similar to those now experienced only in the earth's hottest micro‐climates, could make it nearly impossible for humans to engage in agriculture in India and several other parts of the world. Climate change affects yields of crops, livestock, dairy, and fisheries. Rising temperatures, increased frequency of flooding, and other hazards associated with climate change will reduce food production. Even a slight drop in food output can have a dramatic effect on food prices, both locally and globally. Rice farming, particularly in the rain‐fed regions, faces multiple risks from uncertain climate, degraded soil, water deficits, and underdeveloped markets. Loss of biodiversity is also a threat to agriculture in India, and it is also affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study, for the first time, investigates the physical association between Predecessor Rain Events (PREs) and peak runoff generation in seven catchments over the Upper Mahanadi River basin (UMRB), India. A statistical–dynamical framework is developed to assess the compounding impact of PREs (as preconditioned events) versus riverine floods during both retrospective and projected climate. Based on models' fidelity to capture historical climatology, we select four out of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) during historical (1980–2005), and the three projected time windows, that is, near future (2010–2039), mid‐century (2040–2069), and the far future (2070–2099) planning horizons with RCP8.5 emission scenario. We assess changes in compound flood hazards in historical versus projected periods using a newly proposed Bivariate Hazard Ratio (BHR) index, which represents the ratio between bivariate return periods during the projected versus the historical time windows. Assessing bivariate return periods (characterized by 'AND' operator) of rainfall‐driven compound floods shows decreased flood hazard in the mid‐century and far‐future planning horizons. Accounting ranges of uncertainty from climate model simulations and the propagation of uncertainty across the numerical model chain, overall we show considering PRE as the covariate, floods in larger catchments show an increase in compound flood hazard in the projected period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the relationships between technological innovation and environmental quality in India relying on the availability of annual data from 1980 to 2018. Both inward remittances and economic growth are also considered as key determinants in CO2 emissions and technological innovation functions. The result from utilizing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing cointegration approach indicates the existence of long‐run relationship between the series. The combined cointegration test is also used as a result robust checking and validating the long‐run relationship. While considering the carbon dioxide emissions function, the findings document that technological innovation and economic growth degrade environmental quality in India via promoting atmospheric emissions in the long‐run, whereas U‐shaped relationship between inward remittances and carbon dioxide emissions is established. Further considering the technological innovation function, findings clearly indicate that both carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth promote the new technological innovation in the long‐run and also fails to confirm the inverted U‐shaped relationship between remittances inflows and technological innovation. On the policy front, we suggest that technological innovation should be made eco‐friendly and heavy utilization of inward remittances on pollution‐driving households' appliances need to be discouraged in India for mitigating both climate change and global warming in the long‐run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basin-scale streamflow is influenced by numerous local and global climate inputs. In this paper, genetic programming (GP) is combined with "importance analysis" to identify the important global climate inputs and local meteorological variables needed for prediction of weekly streamflow at the basin scale. The analysis is carried out for the Mahanadi River in India using global climate inputs, namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) index; local meteorological inputs, including outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), total precipitable water (TPW), temperature anomaly (TA), and pressure anomaly (PA); and streamflow information from previous time steps. The rainfall information over the basin is intentionally not utilized so that the procedure may be applicable to basins with little or no rain gauge information and to achieve a longer prediction lead time. The Birnbaum importance measure is used to assess the importance of each input. Results of this study show that the relative importance of individual input variables is influenced by time lags. It is observed that among various local meteorological inputs, OLR and PA are more important than TA and TPW. Among large-scale circulation indices, ENSO index is important for previous 5th to 7th week, whereas EQUINOO index is important for previous 3rd to 6th week. On the basis of their importance measures, 15 indices were selected from the initial group of 30 indices. The GP-derived streamflow forecasting models could predict weekly streamflow with good accuracy (correlation coefficient r = 0.821) for such a complex system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational data shows that there have been significant regional variations in climate change patterns across India. This study examines the effects of climate change on yields of rice across different climatic zones in the former state of Andhra Pradesh. The study uses district level panel data for 30 years (1981–2010) to analyze the influence of climatic variables like rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature on rice yields at the agro‐climatic zone level. Analysis of data shows that the degree of impact of climate on yield of rice is varied across different climatic zones in the former state of Andhra Pradesh. Climatic zones which have traditionally higher temperature and lesser rainfall are more susceptible to variations in climate than others. Though the negative impact of temperature is similar among all the zones, there are observable spatial variations and differences in the degrees of impact The study also found that the impact of irrigation is significantly higher in traditionally drier zones than others. Given significant regional variations on climate change impact, policy makers, administrators and crop scientists have to design micro‐level mitigation and adaptation techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A realistic evaluation of drought onset is inevitable for the effective implementation of mitigation strategies. Meteorological droughts indicating the onset of drought propagation are usually quantified through unbiased indices that consider the month‐wise magnitude variations in historical climatic variables, while completely ignoring their intramonthly distributions. However, the applicability of such indices under the present scenario of changing climate, where intense short wet spells are reportedly increasing, is questionable. Such changes in the wet spells could eventually lead to prolonged intramonthly dry spells, which in turn will pose many agricultural and socioeconomic risks. To monitor the changed scenario realistically, we propose a new drought index—the Standardized Net‐Precipitation Distribution Index (SNEPI), which incorporates the distribution characteristics of the daily net‐precipitation variable. The applicability of SNEPI is critically evaluated using synthetically generated and observed precipitation series over six diverse climatic locations of India, at 1‐, 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month time scales. The utility of SNEPI is more profound for longer time scales, understandably due to the enhanced emphasis imparted on the distribution of rainfall spells by the longer periods. Standardized Net‐Precipitation Distribution Index proves to be efficient in capturing the present scenario of increasing dryness (wetness) in wet (dry) regions when compared with the traditional Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Hence, the proposed index, which incorporates the changing precipitation characteristics, may aid in better quantification and monitoring of meteorological drought under the scenario of changing climate. Key Points: Revisited the concept of drought indices by accounting the precipitation characteristics such as intensity, frequency, and uniformityProposed index shows profound influence for longer time scales, implying possible utility in drought propagation to hydrological levelsProposed index may prove beneficial under the present scenario of abruptly changing climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleocene lavas of the Dianzhong Formation preserved in the Linzhou Basin of South Tibet provide a unique opportunity to constrain the initial geometry of the India‐Asia collision; however, earlier studies argued a complex magnetic signature resulting from thermal and/or chemical remagnetizations. To better characterize the remanences obtained from the Dianzhong lavas, we carried out an intraformational conglomerate test on a previously‐studied section in the Linzhou Basin. The positive conglomerate test suggests that the characteristic remanences reported from the Dianzhong Formation are primary. The updated Paleocene pole confirms a paleolatitude of 6.7° ± 4.4°N for the Lhasa terrane and positions the southern margin of Asia in the equatorial humid belt. An initial collision, between India, Asia and an intra‐oceanic arc in the equatorial humid belt, may have intensified silicate weathering and resulted in an extra consummation of carbon dioxide, which contributes to a long‐term cooling of the Earth during the Cenozoic. Plain Language Summary: The locus of the initial India‐Asia collision can be constrained using paleomagnetic studies on the Paleocene volcanics from the Linzhou Basin, South Tibet. However, the primary nature of the magnetic signature previously reported from the Dianzhong Formation was questioned. This study carries out an intraformational conglomerate test collected from the middle part of the Dianzhong Formation. The stable remanences isolated from a layer of intercalated lava cobbles yield a random distribution in contrast to the well‐grouped directions obtained from the over‐ and underlying lava layers resulting in a positive conglomerate test. We therefore argue for a primary nature for the characteristic remanence recorded by the Dianzhong lavas from the Linzhou Basin. Our study confirms a low latitude of ∼7°N, that is, within the equatorial humid belt, for the southern margin of Asia during ∼64–60 Ma. An initial low‐latitude collision between India and Asia is critical for understanding the tectonic and climatic significance of the India‐Asia collision. Key Points: Characteristic remanences reported from the Dianzhong lavas in the Linzhou Basin are primary in originThe updated Paleocene pole confirms a low latitude of ∼7°N for the Lhasa terraneAn initial collision between India, Asia and an oceanic arc in the equatorial humid belt may contribute to the Cenozoic cooling of the Earth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Forest composition and distribution are determined by a myriad of factors, including climate. As models of tropical rain forest, palms are often used as indicator taxa, particularly the Mauritiinae. We question, what characterizes the Mauritiinae pollen in the global fossil record? And when did the Mauritiinae become endemic to South America? Location: Global tropics. Taxon: Mauritiinae palms (Arecaceae: Lepidocaryeae). Methods: Pollen trait data from extinct and extant Mauritiinae pollen were generated from light‐, scanning‐, and transmission electron microscopy. Statistical morphometric analysis was used to define species and their relationships to other Mauritiinae. We also compiled a comprehensive pollen database for extinct and extant Mauritiinae and mapped their global geographical distribution from Late Cretaceous to present, using GBIF and fossil data. Results: Our morphometric analysis identified 18 species (11 extinct and seven extant), all exhibiting exine indentations, a synapomorphy of the subtribe. The fossil taxa and early divergent extant Lepidocaryum are all monosulcate, whereas the extant Mauritia and Mauritiella species are all monoulcerate. Paleobiogeographical maps of fossil Mauritiinae pollen occurrences suggest the taxon originated in equatorial Africa during the Cretaceous, and expanded their range to South America, and to India in the Paleocene. Range retraction started in the early Eocene with extirpation from India, and reduction in diversity in Africa culminating at the Eocene–Oligocene Transition (EOT). In contrast, in South America, the distribution is maintained, and since the Neogene Mauritiinae palms are mostly restricted to swampy, lowland habitats. Main conclusions: Morphometric analysis shows that since their origin Mauritiinae pollen are relatively species poor, and Mauritiidites resembles Lepidocaryum. We also conclude that the biogeographical history of the Mauriitinae and, by extension, tropical forests was strongly affected by global climatic cooling events. In particular, the climate change at the EOT was a fundamental determinant of current tropical forest distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]