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Background: Physical activity (PA) is known to be beneficial for health, but adherence to international PA guidelines is low across different subpopulations. Interventions have been designed to stimulate PA of different target groups by influencing relevant psycho-social determinants, essentially based on a combination of the Integrated Model for Change, the Theory of Planned Behaviour, its successor the Reasoned Action Approach and the self-determination theory. The current study investigates the pathways through which interventions influence PA. Further, gender differences in pathways of change are studied. Methods: An integrated dataset of five different randomised controlled trial intervention studies is analysed by estimating a Bayesian network. The data include measurements, at baseline and at 3, 6 (short-term), and 12 (long-term) months after the baseline, of important socio-cognitive determinants of PA, demographic factors, and PA outcomes. A fragment is extracted from the Bayesian network consisting of paths between the intervention variable, determinants, and short- and long-term PA outcomes. For each relationship between variables, a stability indicator and its mutual information are computed. Such a model is estimated for the full dataset, and in addition such a model is estimated based only on male and female participants' data to investigate gender differences. Results: The general model (for the full dataset) shows complex paths, indicating that the intervention affects short-term PA via the direct determinants of intention and habit and that self-efficacy, attitude, intrinsic motivation, social influence concepts, planning and commitment have an indirect influence. The model also shows how effects are maintained in the long-term and that previous PA behaviour, intention and attitude pros are direct determinants of long-term PA. The gender-specific models show similarities as well as important differences between the structures of paths for the male- and female subpopulations. For both subpopulations, intention and habit play an important role for short-term effects and maintenance of effects in the long-term. Differences are found in the role of self-efficacy in paths of behaviour change and in the fact that attitude is relevant for males, whereas planning plays a crucial role for females. The average of these differences in subpopulation mechanisms appears to be presented in the general model. Conclusions: While previous research provided limited insight into how interventions influence PA through relevant determinants, the Bayesian network analyses show the relevance of determinants mentioned by the theoretical framework. The model clarifies the role that different determinants play, especially in interaction with each other. The Bayesian network provides new knowledge about the complex working mechanism of interventions to change PA by giving an insightful overview of influencing paths. Furthermore, by presenting subpopulation-specific networks, the difference between the influence structure of males and females is illustrated. These new insights can be used to improve interventions in order to enhance their effects. To accomplish this, we have developed a new methodology based on a Bayesian network analysis which may be applicable in various other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prognostic studies of time-to-event data, where researchers aim to develop or validate multivariable prognostic models in order to predict survival, are commonly seen in the medical literature; however, most are performed retrospectively and few consider sample size prior to analysis. Events per variable rules are sometimes cited, but these are based on bias and coverage of confidence intervals for model terms, which are not of primary interest when developing a model to predict outcome. In this paper we aim to develop sample size recommendations for multivariable models of time-to-event data, based on their prognostic ability.Methods: We derive formulae for determining the sample size required for multivariable prognostic models in time-to-event data, based on a measure of discrimination, D, developed by Royston and Sauerbrei. These formulae fall into two categories: either based on the significance of the value of D in a new study compared to a previous estimate, or based on the precision of the estimate of D in a new study in terms of confidence interval width. Using simulation we show that they give the desired power and type I error and are not affected by random censoring. Additionally, we conduct a literature review to collate published values of D in different disease areas.Results: We illustrate our methods using parameters from a published prognostic study in liver cancer. The resulting sample sizes can be large, and we suggest controlling study size by expressing the desired accuracy in the new study as a relative value as well as an absolute value. To improve usability we use the values of D obtained from the literature review to develop an equation to approximately convert the commonly reported Harrell's c-index to D. A flow chart is provided to aid decision making when using these methods.Conclusion: We have developed a suite of sample size calculations based on the prognostic ability of a survival model, rather than the magnitude or significance of model coefficients. We have taken care to develop the practical utility of the calculations and give recommendations for their use in contemporary clinical research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recently, we developed a mathematical model for identifying putative competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) interactions. This methodology has aroused a broad acknowledgment within the scientific community thanks to the encouraging results achieved when applied to breast invasive carcinoma, leading to the identification of PVT1, a long non-coding RNA functioning as ceRNA for the miR-200 family. The main shortcoming of the model is that it is no freely available and implemented in MATLAB®, a proprietary programming platform requiring a paid license for installing, operating, manipulating, and running the software. Results: Breaking through these model limitations demands to distribute it in an open-source, freely accessible environment, such as R, designed for an ordinary audience of users that are not able to afford a proprietary solution. Here, we present SPINNAKER (SPongeINteractionNetworkmAKER), the open-source version of our widely established mathematical model for predicting ceRNAs crosstalk, that is released as an exhaustive collection of R functions. SPINNAKER has been even designed for providing many additional features that facilitate its usability, make it more efficient in terms of further implementation and extension, and less intense in terms of computational execution time. Conclusions: SPINNAKER source code is freely available at https://github.com/sportingCode/SPINNAKER.git together with a thoroughgoing PPT-based guideline. In order to help users get the key points more conveniently, also a practical R-styled plain-text guideline is provided. Finally, a short movie is available to help the user to set the own directory, properly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative methods vs. generative methods, and so on. In some of the more popular comparative methods, researchers compare observed epidemiological data from the early stages of an outbreak with the output of proposed models to forecast the future trend and prevalence of the pandemic. A significant problem in this area is the lack of standard well-defined evaluation measures to select the best algorithm among different ones, as well as for selecting the best possible configuration for a particular algorithm.Results: In this paper we present an evaluation framework which allows for combining different features, error measures, and ranking schema to evaluate forecasts. We describe the various epidemic features (Epi-features) included to characterize the output of forecasting methods and provide suitable error measures that could be used to evaluate the accuracy of the methods with respect to these Epi-features. We focus on long-term predictions rather than short-term forecasting and demonstrate the utility of the framework by evaluating six forecasting methods for predicting influenza in the United States. Our results demonstrate that different error measures lead to different rankings even for a single Epi-feature. Further, our experimental analyses show that no single method dominates the rest in predicting all Epi-features when evaluated across error measures. As an alternative, we provide various Consensus Ranking schema that summarize individual rankings, thus accounting for different error measures. Since each Epi-feature presents a different aspect of the epidemic, multiple methods need to be combined to provide a comprehensive forecast. Thus we call for a more nuanced approach while evaluating epidemic forecasts and we believe that a comprehensive evaluation framework, as presented in this paper, will add value to the computational epidemiology community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Systems Biology continues to produce increasingly large models of complex biochemical reaction networks. In applications requiring, for example, parameter estimation, the use of agent-based modelling approaches, or real-time simulation, this growing model complexity can present a significant hurdle. Often, however, not all portions of a model are of equal interest in a given setting. In such situations methods of model reduction offer one possible approach for addressing the issue of complexity by seeking to eliminate those portions of a pathway that can be shown to have the least effect upon the properties of interest. Methods: In this paper a model reduction algorithm bringing together the complementary aspects of proper lumping and empirical balanced truncation is presented. Additional contributions include the development of a criterion for the selection of state-variable elimination via conservation analysis and use of an 'averaged' lumping inverse. This combined algorithm is highly automatable and of particular applicability in the context of 'controlled' biochemical networks. Results: The algorithm is demonstrated here via application to two examples; an 11 dimensional model of bacterial chemotaxis in Escherichia coli and a 99 dimensional model of extracellular regulatory kinase activation (ERK) mediated via the epidermal growth factor (EGF) and nerve growth factor (NGF) receptor pathways. In the case of the chemotaxis model the algorithm was able to reduce the model to 2 state-variables producing a maximal relative error between the dynamics of the original and reduced models of only 2.8% whilst yielding a 26 fold speed up in simulation time. For the ERK activation model the algorithm was able to reduce the system to 7 state-variables, incurring a maximal relative error of 4.8%, and producing an approximately 10 fold speed up in the rate of simulation. Indices of controllability and observability are additionally developed and demonstrated throughout the paper. These provide insight into the relative importance of individual reactants in mediating a biochemical system's input-output response even for highly complex networks. Conclusions: Through application, this paper demonstrates that combined model reduction methods can produce a significant simplification of complex Systems Biology models whilst retaining a high degree of predictive accuracy. In particular, it is shown that by combining the methods of proper lumping and empirical balanced truncation it is often possible to produce more accurate reductions than can be obtained by the use of either method in isolation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sepsis is a highly heterogeneous syndrome with stratified severity levels and immune states. Even in patients with similar clinical appearances, the underlying signal transduction pathways are significantly different. To identify the heterogeneities of sepsis from multiple angles, we aimed to establish a combined risk model including the molecular risk score for rapid mortality prediction, pathway risk score for the identification of biological pathway variations, and immunity risk score for guidance with immune-modulation therapy. Methods: We systematically searched and screened the mRNA expression profiles of patients with sepsis in the Gene Expression Omnibus public database. The screened datasets were divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. In the training cohort, authentic prognostic predictor characteristics (differentially expressed mRNAs, pathway activity variations and immune cells) were screened for model construction through bioinformatics analysis and univariate Cox regression, and a P value less than 0.05 of univariate Cox regression on 28-day mortality was set as the cut-off value. The combined risk model was finally established by the decision tree algorithm. In the validation cohort, the model performance was assessed and validated by C statistics and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Additionally, the current models were further compared in clinical value with traditional indicators, including procalcitonin (PCT) and interleukin-8 (IL-8). Results: Datasets from two sepsis cohort studies with a total of 585 consecutive sepsis patients admitted to two intensive care units were downloaded as the training cohort (n = 479) and external validation cohort (n = 106). In the training cohort, 15 molecules, 20 pathways and 4 immune cells were eventually enrolled in model construction. These prognostic factors mainly reflected hypoxia, cellular injury, metabolic disorders and immune dysregulation in sepsis patients. In the validation cohort, the AUCs of the molecular model, pathway model, immune model, and combined model were 0.81, 0.82, 0.62 and 0.873, respectively. The AUCs of the traditional biomarkers (PCT and IL-8) were 0.565 and 0.585, respectively. The survival analysis indicated that patients in the high-risk group identified by models in the current study had a poor prognosis (P < 0.05). The above results indicated that the models in this study are all superior to the traditional biomarkers for the predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients. Furthermore, the current study provides some therapeutic recommendations for patients with high risk scores identified by the three submodels. Conclusions: In summary, the present study provides opportunities for bedside tests that could quantitatively and rapidly measure heterogeneous prognosis, underlying biological pathway variations and immune dysfunction in sepsis patients. Further therapeutic recommendations for patients with high risk scores could improve the therapeutic system for sepsis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper explores and evaluates the application of classical and dominance-based rough set theory (RST) for the development of data-driven prognostic classification models for hospice referral. In this work, rough set based models are compared with other data-driven methods with respect to two factors related to clinical credibility: accuracy and accessibility. Accessibility refers to the ability of the model to provide traceable, interpretable results and use data that is relevant and simple to collect.Methods: We utilize retrospective data from 9,103 terminally ill patients to demonstrate the design and implementation RST- based models to identify potential hospice candidates. The classical rough set approach (CRSA) provides methods for knowledge acquisition, founded on the relational indiscernibility of objects in a decision table, to describe required conditions for membership in a concept class. On the other hand, the dominance-based rough set approach (DRSA) analyzes information based on the monotonic relationships between condition attributes values and their assignment to the decision class. CRSA decision rules for six-month patient survival classification were induced using the MODLEM algorithm. Dominance-based decision rules were extracted using the VC-DomLEM rule induction algorithm.Results: The RST-based classifiers are compared with other predictive and rule based decision modeling techniques, namely logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests and C4.5. The RST-based classifiers demonstrate average AUC of 69.74 % with MODLEM and 71.73 % with VC-DomLEM, while the compared methods achieve average AUC of 74.21 % for logistic regression, 73.52 % for support vector machines, 74.59 % for random forests, and 70.88 % for C4.5.Conclusions: This paper contributes to the growing body of research in RST-based prognostic models. RST and its extensions posses features that enhance the accessibility of clinical decision support models. While the non-rule-based methods-logistic regression, support vector machines and random forests-were found to achieve higher AUC, the performance differential may be outweighed by the benefits of the rule-based methods, particularly in the case of VC-DomLEM. Developing prognostic models for hospice referrals is a challenging problem resulting in substandard performance for all of the evaluated classification methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adults with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) can benefit from devices that actively support their arm function. A critical component of such devices is the control interface as it is responsible for the human-machine interaction. Our previous work indicated that surface electromyography (sEMG) and force-based control with active gravity and joint-stiffness compensation were feasible solutions for the support of elbow movements (one degree of freedom). In this paper, we extend the evaluation of sEMG- and force-based control interfaces to simultaneous and proportional control of planar arm movements (two degrees of freedom).Methods: Three men with DMD (18-23 years-old) with different levels of arm function (i.e. Brooke scores of 4, 5 and 6) performed a series of line-tracing tasks over a tabletop surface using an experimental active arm support. The arm movements were controlled using three control methods: sEMG-based control, force-based control with stiffness compensation (FSC), and force-based control with no compensation (FNC). The movement performance was evaluated in terms of percentage of task completion, tracing error, smoothness and speed.Results: For subject S1 (Brooke 4) FNC was the preferred method and performed better than FSC and sEMG. FNC was not usable for subject S2 (Brooke 5) and S3 (Brooke 6). Subject S2 presented significantly lower movement speed with sEMG than with FSC, yet he preferred sEMG since FSC was perceived to be too fatiguing. Subject S3 could not successfully use neither of the two force-based control methods, while with sEMG he could reach almost his entire workspace.Conclusions: Movement performance and subjective preference of the three control methods differed with the level of arm function of the participants. Our results indicate that all three control methods have to be considered in real applications, as they present complementary advantages and disadvantages. The fact that the two weaker subjects (S2 and S3) experienced the force-based control interfaces as fatiguing suggests that sEMG-based control interfaces could be a better solution for adults with DMD. Yet force-based control interfaces can be a better alternative for those cases in which voluntary forces are higher than the stiffness forces of the arms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In diffuse optical tomography (DOT), the image reconstruction is often an ill-posed inverse problem, which is even more severe for breast DOT since there are considerably increasing unknowns to reconstruct with regard to the achievable number of measurements. One common way to address this ill-posedness is to introduce various regularization methods. There has been extensive research regarding constructing and optimizing objective functions. However, although these algorithms dramatically improved reconstruction images, few of them have designed an essentially differentiable objective function whose full gradient is easy to obtain to accelerate the optimization process.Methods: This paper introduces a new kind of non-negative prior information, designing differentiable objective functions for cases of L1-norm, Lp (0 < p < 1)-norm and L0-norm. Incorporating this non-negative prior information, it is easy to obtain the gradient of these differentiable objective functions, which is useful to guide the optimization process.Results: Performance analyses are conducted using both numerical and phantom experiments. In terms of spatial resolution, quantitativeness, gray resolution and execution time, the proposed methods perform better than the conventional regularization methods without this non-negative prior information.Conclusions: The proposed methods improves the reconstruction images using the introduced non-negative prior information. Furthermore, the non-negative constraint facilitates the gradient computation, accelerating the minimization of the objective functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bivariate random-effects models represent a widely accepted and recommended approach for meta-analysis of test accuracy studies. Standard likelihood methods routinely used for inference are prone to several drawbacks. Small sample size can give rise to unreliable inferential conclusions and convergence issues make the approach unappealing. This paper suggests a different methodology to address such difficulties.Methods: A SIMEX methodology is proposed. The method is a simulation-based technique originally developed as a correction strategy within the measurement error literature. It suits the meta-analysis framework as the diagnostic accuracy measures provided by each study are prone to measurement error. SIMEX can be straightforwardly adapted to cover different measurement error structures and to deal with covariates. The effortless implementation with standard software is an interesting feature of the method.Results: Extensive simulation studies highlight the improvement provided by SIMEX over likelihood approach in terms of empirical coverage probabilities of confidence intervals under different scenarios, independently of the sample size and the values of the correlation between sensitivity and specificity. A remarkable amelioration is obtained in case of deviations from the normality assumption for the random-effects distribution. From a computational point of view, the application of SIMEX is shown to be neither involved nor subject to the convergence issues affecting likelihood-based alternatives. Application of the method to a diagnostic review of the performance of transesophageal echocardiography for assessing ascending aorta atherosclerosis enables overcoming limitations of the likelihood procedure.Conclusions: The SIMEX methodology represents an interesting alternative to likelihood-based procedures for inference in meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. The approach can provide more accurate inferential conclusions, while avoiding convergence failure and numerical instabilities. The application of the method in the R programming language is possible through the code which is made available and illustrated using the real data example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: When patients are admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) their risk of getting an infection will be highly depend on the length of stay at-risk in the ICU. In addition, risk of infection is likely to vary over calendar time as a result of fluctuations in the prevalence of the pathogen on the ward. Hence risk of infection is expected to depend on two time scales (time in ICU and calendar time) as well as competing events (discharge or death) and their spatial location. The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply appropriate statistical models for the risk of ICU-acquired infection accounting for multiple time scales, competing risks and the spatial clustering of the data.Methods: A multi-center data base from a Spanish surveillance network was used to study the occurrence of an infection due to Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The analysis included 84,843 patient admissions between January 2006 and December 2011 from 81 ICUs. Stratified Cox models were used to study multiple time scales while accounting for spatial clustering of the data (patients within ICUs) and for death or discharge as competing events for MRSA infection.Results: Both time scales, time in ICU and calendar time, are highly associated with the MRSA hazard rate and cumulative risk. When using only one basic time scale, the interpretation and magnitude of several patient-individual risk factors differed. Risk factors concerning the severity of illness were more pronounced when using only calendar time. These differences disappeared when using both time scales simultaneously.Conclusions: The time-dependent dynamics of infections is complex and should be studied with models allowing for multiple time scales. For patient individual risk-factors we recommend stratified Cox regression models for competing events with ICU time as the basic time scale and calendar time as a covariate. The inclusion of calendar time and stratification by ICU allow to indirectly account for ICU-level effects such as local outbreaks or prevention interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: As a part of a larger Health Technology Assessment (HTA), the measurement error of a device used to monitor the hemoglobin concentration of a patient undergoing surgery, as well as its decision consequences, were to be estimated from published data.Methods: A Bayesian hierarchical model of measurement error, allowing the meta-analytic estimation of both central and dispersion parameters (under the assumption of normality of measurement errors) is proposed and applied to published data; the resulting potential decision errors are deduced from this estimation. The same method is used to assess the impact of an initial calibration.Results: The posterior distributions are summarized as mean ± sd (credible interval). The fitted model exhibits a modest mean expected error (0.24 ± 0.73 (-1.23 1.59) g/dL) and a large variability (mean absolute expected error 1.18 ± 0.92 (0.05 3.36) g/dL). The initial calibration modifies the bias (-0.20 ± 0.87 (-1.99 1.49) g/dL), but the variability remains almost as large (mean absolute expected error 1.05 ± 0.87 (0.04 3.21) g/dL). This entails a potential decision error ("false positive" or "false negative") for about one patient out of seven.Conclusions: The proposed hierarchical model allows the estimation of the variability from published aggregates, and allows the modeling of the consequences of this variability in terms of decision errors. For the device under assessment, these potential decision errors are clinically problematic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Quantitative electroencephalogram (EEG) is one neuroimaging technique that has been shown to differentiate patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and non-depressed healthy volunteers (HV) at the group-level, but its diagnostic potential for detecting differences at the individual level has yet to be realized. Quantitative EEGs produce complex data sets derived from digitally analyzed electrical activity at different frequency bands, at multiple electrode locations, and under different vigilance (eyes open vs. closed) states, resulting in potential feature patterns which may be diagnostically useful, but detectable only with advanced mathematical models.Methods: This paper uses a data mining methodology for classifying EEGs of 53 MDD patients and 43 HVs. This included: (a) pre-processing the data, including cleaning and normalization, applying Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to map the features into a new feature space; and applying Genetic Algorithm (GA) to identify the most significant features; (b) building predictive models using the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm to discover rules and hidden patterns based on the reduced and mapped features; and (c) evaluating the models based on the accuracy and false positive values on the EEG data of MDD and HV participants. Two categories of experiments were performed. The first experiment analyzed each frequency band individually, while the second experiment analyzed the bands together.Results: Application of LDA and GA markedly reduced the total number of utilized features by ≥ 50 % and, with all frequency bands analyzed together, the model showed average classification accuracy (MDD vs. HV) of 80 %. The best results from model testing with additional test EEG recordings from 9 MDD patients and 35 HV individuals demonstrated an accuracy of 80 % and showed an average sensitivity of 70 %, a specificity of 76 %, and a positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 74 and 75 %, respectively.Conclusions: These initial findings suggest that the proposed automated EEG analytical approach could be a useful adjunctive diagnostic approach in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Spasticity is a motor disorder that causes significant disability and impairs function. There are no definitive parameters that assess spasticity and there is no universally accepted definition. Spasticity evaluation is important in determining stages of recovery. It can determine treatment effectiveness as well as how treatment should proceed. This paper presents a novel cross sectional robotic pilot study for the primary purpose of assessment. The system collects force and position data to quantify spasticity through similar motions of the Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS) assessment in the Sagittal plane. Validity of the system is determined based on its ability to measure velocity dependent resistance.Methods: Forty individuals with Acquired Brain Injury (ABI) and 45 healthy individuals participated in a robotic pilot study. A linear regression model was applied to determine the effect an ABI has on force data obtained through the robotic system in an effort to validate it. Parameters from the model were compared for both groups. Two techniques were performed in an attempt to classify between healthy and patients. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) with k-nearest neighbour (KNN) classification is compared to a time-series algorithm using position and force data in a linear discriminant analysis (LDA).Results: The system is capable of detecting a velocity dependent resistance (p<0.05). Differences were found between healthy individuals and those with MAS 0 who are considered to be healthy. DTW with KNN is shown to improve classification between healthy and patients by approximately 20 % compared to that of an LDA.Conclusions: Quantitative methods of spasticity evaluation demonstrate that differences can be observed between healthy individuals and those with MAS of 0 who are often clinically considered to be healthy. Exploiting the time-series nature of the collected data demonstrates that position and force together are an accurate predictor of patient health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We address the problem of studying recombinational variations in (human) populations. In this paper, our focus is on one computational aspect of the general task: Given two networks G1 and G2, with both mutation and recombination events, defined on overlapping sets of extant units the objective is to compute a consensus network G3 with minimum number of additional recombinations. We describe a polynomial time algorithm with a guarantee that the number of computed new recombination events is within = sz(G1, G2) (function sz is a well-behaved function of the sizes and topologies of G1 and G2) of the optimal number of recombinations. To date, this is the best known result for a network consensus problem. Results: Although the network consensus problem can be applied to a variety of domains, here we focus on structure of human populations. With our preliminary analysis on a segment of the human Chromosome X data we are able to infer ancient recombinations, population-specific recombinations and more, which also support the widely accepted 'Out of Africa' model. These results have been verified independently using traditional manual procedures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first recombinations-based characterization of human populations. Conclusion: We show that our mathematical model identifies recombination spots in the individual haplotypes; the aggregate of these spots over a set of haplotypes defines a recombinational landscape that has enough signal to detect continental as well as population divide based on a short segment of Chromosome X. In particular, we are able to infer ancient recombinations, population-specific recombinations and more, which also support the widely accepted 'Out of Africa' model. The agreement with mutation-based analysis can be viewed as an indirect validation of our results and the model. Since the model in principle gives us more information embedded in the networks, in our future work, we plan to investigate more non-traditional questions via these structures computed by our methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

De Bruijn Superwalk with Multiplicities Problem is the problem of finding a walk in the de Bruijn graph containing several walks as subwalks and passing through each edge the exactly predefined number of times (equal to the multiplicity of this edge). This problem has been stated in the talk by Paul Medvedev and Michael Brudno on the first RECOMB Satellite Conference on Open Problems in Algorithmic Biology in August 2012. In this paper we show that this problem is NP-hard. Combined with results of previous works it means that all known models for genome assembly are NP-hard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Modern cancer treatment strategies aim to target tumour specific genetic (or epigenetic) alterations. Treatment response improves if these alterations are clonal, i.e. present in all cancer cells within tumours. However, the identification of truly clonal alterations is impaired by the tremendous intra-tumour genetic heterogeneity and unavoidable sampling biases.Methods: Here, we investigate the underlying causes of these spatial sampling biases and how the distribution and sizes of biopsies in sampling protocols can be optimised to minimize such biases.Results: We find that in the ideal case, less than a handful of samples can be enough to infer truly clonal mutations. The frequency of the largest sub-clone at diagnosis is the main factor determining the accuracy of truncal mutation estimation in structured tumours. If the first sub-clone is dominating the tumour, higher spatial dispersion of samples and larger sample size can increase the accuracy of the estimation. In such an improved sampling scheme, fewer samples will enable the detection of truly clonal alterations with the same probability.Conclusions: Taking spatial tumour structure into account will decrease the probability to misclassify a sub-clonal mutation as clonal and promises better informed treatment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mathematical modeling has achieved a broad interest in the field of biology. These models represent the associations among the metabolism of the biological phenomenon with some mathematical equations such that the observed time course profile of the biological data fits the model. However, the estimation of the unknown parameters of the model is a challenging task. Many algorithms have been developed for parameter estimation, but none of them is entirely capable of finding the best solution. The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for precise estimation of parameters of a biological model. Methods: In this paper, a novel particle swarm optimization algorithm based on a decomposition technique is developed. Then, its root mean square error is compared with simple particle swarm optimization, Iterative Unscented Kalman Filter and Simulated Annealing algorithms for two different simulation scenarios and a real data set related to the metabolism of CAD system. Results: Our proposed algorithm results in 54.39% and 26.72% average reduction in root mean square error when applied to the simulation and experimental data, respectively. Conclusion: The results show that the metaheuristic approaches such as the proposed method are very wise choices for finding the solution of nonlinear problems with many unknown parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the last few years, some studies have measured heart rate (HR) or heart rate variability (HRV) parameters using a video camera. This technique focuses on the measurement of the small changes in skin colour caused by blood perfusion. To date, most of these works have obtained HRV parameters in stationary conditions, and there are practically no studies that obtain these parameters in motion scenarios and by conducting an in-depth statistical analysis.Methods: In this study, a video pulse rate variability (PRV) analysis is conducted by measuring the pulse-to-pulse (PP) intervals in stationary and motion conditions. Firstly, given the importance of the sampling rate in a PRV analysis and the low frame rate of commercial cameras, we carried out an analysis of two models to evaluate their performance in the measurements. We propose a selective tracking method using the Viola-Jones and KLT algorithms, with the aim of carrying out a robust video PRV analysis in stationary and motion conditions. Data and results of the proposed method are contrasted with those reported in the state of the art.Results: The webcam achieved better results in the performance analysis of video cameras. In stationary conditions, high correlation values were obtained in PRV parameters with results above 0.9. The PP time series achieved an RMSE (mean ± standard deviation) of 19.45 ± 5.52 ms (1.70 ± 0.75 bpm). In the motion analysis, most of the PRV parameters also achieved good correlation results, but with lower values as regards stationary conditions. The PP time series presented an RMSE of 21.56 ± 6.41 ms (1.79 ± 0.63 bpm).Conclusions: The statistical analysis showed good agreement between the reference system and the proposed method. In stationary conditions, the results of PRV parameters were improved by our method in comparison with data reported in related works. An overall comparative analysis of PRV parameters in motion conditions was more limited due to the lack of studies or studies containing insufficient data analysis. Based on the results, the proposed method could provide a low-cost, contactless and reliable alternative for measuring HR or PRV parameters in non-clinical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The QRS complex is the most noticeable feature in the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal, therefore, its detection is critical for ECG signal analysis. The existing detection methods largely depend on hand-crafted manual features and parameters, which may introduce significant computational complexity, especially in the transform domains. In addition, fixed features and parameters are not suitable for detecting various kinds of QRS complexes under different circumstances.Methods: In this study, based on 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN), an accurate method for QRS complex detection is proposed. The CNN consists of object-level and part-level CNNs for extracting different grained ECG morphological features automatically. All the extracted morphological features are used by multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for QRS complex detection. Additionally, a simple ECG signal preprocessing technique which only contains difference operation in temporal domain is adopted.Results: Based on the MIT-BIH arrhythmia (MIT-BIH-AR) database, the proposed detection method achieves overall sensitivity Sen = 99.77%, positive predictivity rate PPR = 99.91%, and detection error rate DER = 0.32%. In addition, the performance variation is performed according to different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values.Conclusions: An automatic QRS detection method using two-level 1-D CNN and simple signal preprocessing technique is proposed for QRS complex detection. Compared with the state-of-the-art QRS complex detection approaches, experimental results show that the proposed method acquires comparable accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The EQ-5D is a generic health-related quality of life instrument (five dimensions with three levels, 243 health states), used extensively in cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analyses. EQ-5D health states are assigned values on a scale anchored in perfect health (1) and death (0). The dominant procedure for defining values for EQ-5D health states involves regression modeling. These regression models have typically included a constant term, interpreted as the utility loss associated with any movement away from perfect health. The authors of the United States EQ-5D valuation study replaced this constant with a variable, D1, which corresponds to the number of impaired dimensions beyond the first. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the use of the D1 variable in place of a constant is problematic. Methods: We compared the original D1 regression model with a mathematically equivalent model with a constant term. Comparisons included implications for the magnitude and statistical significance of the coefficients, multicollinearity (variance inflation factors, or VIFs), number of calculation steps needed to determine tariff values, and consequences for tariff interpretation. Results: Using the D1 variable in place of a constant shifted all dummy variable coefficients away from zero by the value of the constant, greatly increased the multicollinearity of the model (maximum VIF of 113.2 vs. 21.2), and increased the mean number of calculation steps required to determine health state values. Discussion: Using the D1 variable in place of a constant constitutes an unnecessary complication of the model, obscures the fact that at least two of the main effect dummy variables are statistically nonsignificant, and complicates and biases interpretation of the tariff algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Within epidemiological and clinical research, missing data are a common issue and often over looked in publications. When the issue of missing observations is addressed it is usually assumed that the missing data are 'missing at random' (MAR). This assumption should be checked for plausibility, however it is untestable, thus inferences should be assessed for robustness to departures from missing at random.Methods: We highlight the method of pattern mixture sensitivity analysis after multiple imputation using colorectal cancer data as an example. We focus on the Dukes' stage variable which has the highest proportion of missing observations. First, we find the probability of being in each Dukes' stage given the MAR imputed dataset. We use these probabilities in a questionnaire to elicit prior beliefs from experts on what they believe the probability would be in the missing data. The questionnaire responses are then used in a Dirichlet draw to create a Bayesian 'missing not at random' (MNAR) prior to impute the missing observations. The model of interest is applied and inferences are compared to those from the MAR imputed data.Results: The inferences were largely insensitive to departure from MAR. Inferences under MNAR suggested a smaller association between Dukes' stage and death, though the association remained positive and with similarly low p values.Conclusions: We conclude by discussing the positives and negatives of our method and highlight the importance of making people aware of the need to test the MAR assumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recently, several adaptive one-arm two-stage designs have been developed by fully using the information from previous stages to reduce the expected sample size in clinical trials with binary endpoints as primary outcome. It is important to compute exact confidence limits for these studies.Methods: In this article, we propose three new one-sided limits by ordering the sample space based on p-value, average response rate at each stage, and asymptotic lower limit, as compared to another three existing sample size ordering approaches based on average response rate. Among the three proposed approaches, the one based on the average response rate at each stage is not exact, and the remaining two approaches are exact with the coverage probability guaranteed.Results: We compare these exact intervals by using the two commonly used criteria: simple average length and expected length. The existing three approaches based on average response rate have similar performance, and they have shorter expected lengths than the two proposed exact approaches although the gain is small, while this trend is reversed under the simple average criterion.Conclusions: We would recommend the two exact proposed approaches based on p-value and asymptotic lower limit under the simple average length criterion, and the approach based on average response rate under the expected length criterion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The analysis of correlated binary data is commonly addressed through the use of conditional models with random effects included in the systematic component as opposed to generalized estimating equations (GEE) models that addressed the random component. Since the joint distribution of the observations is usually unknown, the conditional distribution is a natural approach. Our objective was to compare the fit of different binary models for correlated data in Tabaco use. We advocate that the joint modeling of the mean and dispersion may be at times just as adequate. We assessed the ability of these models to account for the intraclass correlation. In so doing, we concentrated on fitting logistic regression models to address smoking behaviors.Methods: Frequentist and Bayes' hierarchical models were used to predict conditional probabilities, and the joint modeling (GLM and GAM) models were used to predict marginal probabilities. These models were fitted to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data for Tabaco use.Results: We found that people were less likely to smoke if they had higher income, high school or higher education and religious. Individuals were more likely to smoke if they had abused drug or alcohol, spent more time on TV and video games, and been arrested. Moreover, individuals who drank alcohol early in life were more likely to be a regular smoker. Children who experienced mistreatment from their parents were more likely to use Tabaco regularly.Conclusions: The joint modeling of the mean and dispersion models offered a flexible and meaningful method of addressing the intraclass correlation. They do not require one to identify random effects nor distinguish from one level of the hierarchy to the other. Moreover, once one can identify the significant random effects, one can obtain similar results to the random coefficient models. We found that the set of marginal models accounting for extravariation through the additional dispersion submodel produced similar results with regards to inferences and predictions. Moreover, both marginal and conditional models demonstrated similar predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence.Methods: We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett's method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population.Results: Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence.Conclusion: It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The attributable risk (AR) measures the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to an exposure in the population. Several definitions and estimation methods have been proposed for survival data.Methods: Using simulations, we compared four methods for estimating AR defined in terms of survival functions: two nonparametric methods based on Kaplan-Meier's estimator, one semiparametric based on Cox's model, and one parametric based on the piecewise constant hazards model, as well as one simpler method based on estimated exposure prevalence at baseline and Cox's model hazard ratio. We considered a fixed binary exposure with varying exposure probabilities and strengths of association, and generated event times from a proportional hazards model with constant or monotonic (decreasing or increasing) Weibull baseline hazard, as well as from a nonproportional hazards model. We simulated 1,000 independent samples of size 1,000 or 10,000. The methods were compared in terms of mean bias, mean estimated standard error, empirical standard deviation and 95% confidence interval coverage probability at four equally spaced time points.Results: Under proportional hazards, all five methods yielded unbiased results regardless of sample size. Nonparametric methods displayed greater variability than other approaches. All methods showed satisfactory coverage except for nonparametric methods at the end of follow-up for a sample size of 1,000 especially. With nonproportional hazards, nonparametric methods yielded similar results to those under proportional hazards, whereas semiparametric and parametric approaches that both relied on the proportional hazards assumption performed poorly. These methods were applied to estimate the AR of breast cancer due to menopausal hormone therapy in 38,359 women of the E3N cohort.Conclusion: In practice, our study suggests to use the semiparametric or parametric approaches to estimate AR as a function of time in cohort studies if the proportional hazards assumption appears appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Many continuous item responses (CIRs) are encountered in healthcare settings, but no one uses item response theory's (IRT) probabilistic modeling to present graphical presentations for interpreting CIR results. A computer module that is programmed to deal with CIRs is required. To present a computer module, validate it, and verify its usefulness in dealing with CIR data, and then to apply the model to real healthcare data in order to show how the CIR that can be applied to healthcare settings with an example regarding a safety attitude survey.Methods: Using Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications), we designed a computer module that minimizes the residuals and calculates model's expected scores according to person responses across items. Rasch models based on a Wright map and on KIDMAP were demonstrated to interpret results of the safety attitude survey.Results: The author-made CIR module yielded OUTFIT mean square (MNSQ) and person measures equivalent to those yielded by professional Rasch Winsteps software. The probabilistic modeling of the CIR module provides messages that are much more valuable to users and show the CIR advantage over classic test theory.Conclusions: Because of advances in computer technology, healthcare users who are familiar to MS Excel can easily apply the study CIR module to deal with continuous variables to benefit comparisons of data with a logistic distribution and model fit statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date. It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk.Methods: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis.Results: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata. Finally, we argue that a weighted average of these end of follow-up estimates may be a useful summary measure of the disease risk within the study period.Conclusions: Time trends in a disease risk will render total sample estimators less useful in observational studies with staggered entry and administrative censoring. An analysis based on proportional hazards or a stratified analysis may be better alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Many intervention-based studies aiming to improve mental health do not include a multi-attribute utility instrument (MAUI) that produces quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and it limits the applicability of the health economic analyses. This study aims to develop 'crosswalk' transformation algorithm between a measure for psychological distress General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and MAUI EuroQoL (EQ-5D-3L).Methods: The study is based on a survey questionnaire sent to a random sample in four counties in Sweden in 2012. The survey included GHQ-12 and EQ-5D instruments, as well as a question about self-rated health. The EQ-5D index was calculated using the UK and the Swedish tariff values. Two OLS models were used to estimate the EQ-5D health state values using the GHQ-12 as exposure, based on the respondents (n = 17, 101) of two counties. The algorithms were applied to the data from two other counties, (n = 15, 447) to check the predictive capacity of the models.Results: The final models included gender, age, self-rated health and GHQ-12 scores as a quantitative variable. The regression equations explained 40 % (UK tariff) and 46 % (Swedish tariff) of the variances. The model showed a satisfying predictive capacity between the observed and the predicted EQ-5D index score, with Pearson correlation = 0.65 and 0.69 for the UK and Swedish models, respectively.Conclusion: The algorithms developed in this study can be used to determine cost-effectiveness of services or interventions that use GHQ-12 as a primary outcome where the utility measures are not collected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Available methods for the joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes have typically only allowed for a single longitudinal outcome and a solitary event time. In practice, clinical studies are likely to record multiple longitudinal outcomes. Incorporating all sources of data will improve the predictive capability of any model and lead to more informative inferences for the purpose of medical decision-making.Methods: We reviewed current methodologies of joint modelling for time-to-event data and multivariate longitudinal data including the distributional and modelling assumptions, the association structures, estimation approaches, software tools for implementation and clinical applications of the methodologies.Results: We found that a large number of different models have recently been proposed. Most considered jointly modelling linear mixed models with proportional hazard models, with correlation between multiple longitudinal outcomes accounted for through multivariate normally distributed random effects. So-called current value and random effects parameterisations are commonly used to link the models. Despite developments, software is still lacking, which has translated into limited uptake by medical researchers.Conclusion: Although, in an era of personalized medicine, the value of multivariate joint modelling has been established, researchers are currently limited in their ability to fit these models routinely. We make a series of recommendations for future research needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Geographic perspectives of disease and the human condition often involve point-based observations and questions of clustering or dispersion within a spatial context. These problems involve a finite set of point observations and are constrained by a larger, but finite, set of locations where the observations could occur. Developing a rigorous method for pattern analysis in this context requires handling spatial covariates, a method for constrained finite spatial clustering, and addressing bias in geographic distance measures. An approach, based on Ripley's K and applied to the problem of clustering with deliberate self-harm (DSH), is presented.Methods: Point-based Monte-Carlo simulation of Ripley's K, accounting for socio-economic deprivation and sources of distance measurement bias, was developed to estimate clustering of DSH at a range of spatial scales. A rotated Minkowski L1 distance metric allowed variation in physical distance and clustering to be assessed. Self-harm data was derived from an audit of 2 years' emergency hospital presentations (n = 136) in a New Zealand town (population ~50,000). Study area was defined by residential (housing) land parcels representing a finite set of possible point addresses.Results: Area-based deprivation was spatially correlated. Accounting for deprivation and distance bias showed evidence for clustering of DSH for spatial scales up to 500 m with a one-sided 95 % CI, suggesting that social contagion may be present for this urban cohort.Conclusions: Many problems involve finite locations in geographic space that require estimates of distance-based clustering at many scales. A Monte-Carlo approach to Ripley's K, incorporating covariates and models for distance bias, are crucial when assessing health-related clustering. The case study showed that social network structure defined at the neighbourhood level may account for aspects of neighbourhood clustering of DSH. Accounting for covariate measures that exhibit spatial clustering, such as deprivation, are crucial when assessing point-based clustering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In a standard two-stage SMART design, the intermediate response to the first-stage intervention is measured at a fixed time point for all participants. Subsequently, responders and non-responders are re-randomized and the final outcome of interest is measured at the end of the study. To reduce the side effects and costs associated with first-stage interventions in a SMART design, we proposed a novel time-varying SMART design in which individuals are re-randomized to the second-stage interventions as soon as a pre-fixed intermediate response is observed. With this strategy, the duration of the first-stage intervention will vary.Methods: We developed a time-varying mixed effects model and a joint model that allows for modeling the outcomes of interest (intermediate and final) and the random durations of the first-stage interventions simultaneously. The joint model borrows strength from the survival sub-model in which the duration of the first-stage intervention (i.e., time to response to the first-stage intervention) is modeled. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the statistical properties of these models.Results: Our simulation results showed that the two modeling approaches were both able to provide good estimations of the means of the final outcomes of all the embedded interventions in a SMART. However, the joint modeling approach was more accurate for estimating the coefficients of first-stage interventions and time of the intervention.Conclusion: We conclude that the joint modeling approach provides more accurate parameter estimates and a higher estimated coverage probability than the single time-varying mixed effects model, and we recommend the joint model for analyzing data generated from time-varying SMART designs. In addition, we showed that the proposed time-varying SMART design is cost-efficient and equally effective in selecting the optimal embedded adaptive intervention as the standard SMART design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The continual reassessment method (CRM) requires an underlying model of the dose-toxicity relationship ("prior skeleton") and there is limited guidance of what this should be when little is known about this association. In this manuscript the impact of applying the CRM with different prior skeleton approaches and the 3 + 3 method are compared in terms of ability to determine the true maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and number of patients allocated to sub-optimal and toxic doses.Methods: Post-hoc dose-escalation analyses on real-life clinical trial data on an early oncology compound (AZD3514), using the 3 + 3 method and CRM using six different prior skeleton approaches.Results: All methods correctly identified the true MTD. The 3 + 3 method allocated six patients to both sub-optimal and toxic doses. All CRM approaches allocated four patients to sub-optimal doses. No patients were allocated to toxic doses from sigmoidal, two from conservative and five from other approaches.Conclusions: Prior skeletons for the CRM for phase 1 clinical trials are proposed in this manuscript and applied to a real clinical trial dataset. Highly accurate initial skeleton estimates may not be essential to determine the true MTD, and, as expected, all CRM methods out-performed the 3 + 3 method. There were differences in performance between skeletons. The choice of skeleton should depend on whether minimizing the number of patients allocated to suboptimal or toxic doses is more important.Trial Registration: NCT01162395 , Trial date of first registration: July 13, 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In observational studies, matched case-control designs are routinely conducted to improve study precision. How to select covariates for match or adjustment, however, is still a great challenge for estimating causal effect between the exposure E and outcome D.Methods: From the perspective of causal diagrams, 9 scenarios of causal relationships among exposure (E), outcome (D) and their related covariates (C) were investigated. Further various simulation strategies were performed to explore whether match or adjustment should be adopted. The "do calculus" and "back-door criterion" were used to calculate the true causal effect (β) of E on D on the log-odds ratio scale. 1:1 matching method was used to create matched case-control data, and the conditional or unconditional logistic regression was utilized to get the estimators ([Formula: see text]) of causal effect. The bias ([Formula: see text]) and standard error ([Formula: see text]) were used to evaluate their performances.Results: When C is exactly a confounder for E and D, matching on it did not illustrate distinct improvement in the precision; the benefit of match was to greatly reduce the bias for β though failed to completely remove the bias; further adjustment for C in matched case-control designs is still essential. When C is associated with E or D, but not a confounder, including an independent cause of D, a cause of E but has no direct causal effect on D, a collider of E and D, an effect of exposure E, a mediator of causal path from E to D, arbitrary match or adjustment of this kind of plausible confounders C will create unexpected bias. When C is not a confounder but an effect of D, match or adjustment is unnecessary. Specifically, when C is an instrumental variable, match or adjustment could not reduce the bias due to existence of unobserved confounders U.Conclusions: Arbitrary match or adjustment of the plausible confounder C is very dangerous before figuring out the possible causal relationships among E, D and their related covariates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Meta-analysis is a valuable tool for combining evidence from multiple studies. Network meta-analysis is becoming more widely used as a means to compare multiple treatments in the same analysis. However, a network meta-analysis may exhibit inconsistency, whereby the treatment effect estimates do not agree across all trial designs, even after taking between-study heterogeneity into account. We propose two new estimation methods for network meta-analysis models with random inconsistency effects.Methods: The model we consider is an extension of the conventional random-effects model for meta-analysis to the network meta-analysis setting and allows for potential inconsistency using random inconsistency effects. Our first new estimation method uses a Bayesian framework with empirically-based prior distributions for both the heterogeneity and the inconsistency variances. We fit the model using importance sampling and thereby avoid some of the difficulties that might be associated with using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, we confirm the accuracy of our importance sampling method by comparing the results to those obtained using MCMC as the gold standard. The second new estimation method we describe uses a likelihood-based approach, implemented in the metafor package, which can be used to obtain (restricted) maximum-likelihood estimates of the model parameters and profile likelihood confidence intervals of the variance components.Results: We illustrate the application of the methods using two contrasting examples. The first uses all-cause mortality as an outcome, and shows little evidence of between-study heterogeneity or inconsistency. The second uses "ear discharge" as an outcome, and exhibits substantial between-study heterogeneity and inconsistency. Both new estimation methods give results similar to those obtained using MCMC.Conclusions: The extent of heterogeneity and inconsistency should be assessed and reported in any network meta-analysis. Our two new methods can be used to fit models for network meta-analysis with random inconsistency effects. They are easily implemented using the accompanying R code in the Additional file 1. Using these estimation methods, the extent of inconsistency can be assessed and reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several mapping algorithms have been published with the EORTC-QLQ-C30 for estimating EQ-5D-3L utilities. However, none are available with EQ-5D-5L. Moreover, a comparison between mapping algorithms in the same set of patients has not been performed for these two instruments simultaneously. In this prospective data set of 100 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, we investigate three mapping algorithms using the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L and compare their performance.Methods: A prospective non-interventional cohort of 100 NSCLC patients were followed up for 12 months. EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L and EORTC-QLQ-C30 were assessed monthly. EQ-5D-5L was completed at least 1 week after EQ-5D-3L. A random effects linear regression model, a beta-binomial (BB) and a Limited Variable Dependent Mixture (LVDM) model were used to determine a mapping algorithm between EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L and QLQ-C30. Simulation and cross validation and other statistical measures were used to compare the performances of the algorithms.Results: Mapping from the EQ-5D-5L was better: lower AIC, RMSE, MAE and higher R(2) were reported with the EQ-5D-5L than with EQ-5D-3L regardless of the functional form of the algorithm. The BB model proved to be more useful for both instruments: for the EQ-5D-5L, AIC was -485, R(2) of 75 %, MAE of 0.075 and RMSE was 0.092. This was -385, 69 %, 0.099 and 0.113 for EQ-5D-3L respectively. The mean observed vs. predicted utilities were 0.572 vs. 0.577 and 0.515 vs. 0.523 for EQ-5D-5L and EQ-5D-3L respectively, for OLS; for BB, these were 0.572 vs. 0.575 and 0.515 vs. 0.518 respectively and for LVDMM 0.532 vs 0.515 and 0.569 vs 0.572 respectively. Less over-prediction at poorer health states was observed with EQ-5D-5L.Conclusions: The BB mapping algorithm is confirmed to offer a better fit for both EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L. The results confirm previous and more recent results on the use of BB type modelling approaches for mapping. It is recommended that in studies where EQ-5D utilities have not been collected, an EQ-5D-5L mapping algorithm is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To build a new treatment planning approach that extends beyond radiation transport and IMRT optimization by modeling the radiation therapy process and prognostic indicators for more outcome-focused decision making.Methods: An in-house treatment planning system was modified to include multiobjective inverse planning, a probabilistic outcome model, and a multi-attribute decision aid. A genetic algorithm generated a set of plans embodying trade-offs between the separate objectives. An influence diagram network modeled the radiation therapy process of prostate cancer using expert opinion, results of clinical trials, and published research. A Markov model calculated a quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE), which was the endpoint for ranking plans.Results: The Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) was designed to produce an approximation of the Pareto Front representing optimal tradeoffs for IMRT plans. Prognostic information from the dosimetrics of the plans, and from patient-specific clinical variables were combined by the influence diagram. QALEs were calculated for each plan for each set of patient characteristics. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore changes in outcomes for variations in patient characteristics and dosimetric variables. The model calculated life expectancies that were in agreement with an independent clinical study.Conclusions: The radiation therapy model proposed has integrated a number of different physical, biological and clinical models into a more comprehensive model. It illustrates a number of the critical aspects of treatment planning that can be improved and represents a more detailed description of the therapy process. A Markov model was implemented to provide a stronger connection between dosimetric variables and clinical outcomes and could provide a practical, quantitative method for making difficult clinical decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While mathematical models are often used to predict progression of cancer and treatment outcomes, there is still uncertainty over how to best model tumor growth. Seven ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of tumor growth (exponential, Mendelsohn, logistic, linear, surface, Gompertz, and Bertalanffy) have been proposed, but there is no clear guidance on how to choose the most appropriate model for a particular cancer.Methods: We examined all seven of the previously proposed ODE models in the presence and absence of chemotherapy. We derived equations for the maximum tumor size, doubling time, and the minimum amount of chemotherapy needed to suppress the tumor and used a sample data set to compare how these quantities differ based on choice of growth model.Results: We find that there is a 12-fold difference in predicting doubling times and a 6-fold difference in the predicted amount of chemotherapy needed for suppression depending on which growth model was used.Conclusion: Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of model assumptions when developing mathematical models for use in cancer treatment planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed assuming proportional hazards (PH) of the treatment effect. The sample size calculation is based on a logrank test. However, non-proportional hazards are increasingly common. At analysis, the estimated hazards ratio with a confidence interval is usually presented. The estimate is often obtained from a Cox PH model with treatment as a covariate. If non-proportional hazards are present, the logrank and equivalent Cox tests may lose power. To safeguard power, we previously suggested a 'joint test' combining the Cox test with a test of non-proportional hazards. Unfortunately, a larger sample size is needed to preserve power under PH. Here, we describe a novel test that unites the Cox test with a permutation test based on restricted mean survival time.Methods: We propose a combined hypothesis test based on a permutation test of the difference in restricted mean survival time across time. The test involves the minimum of the Cox and permutation test P-values. We approximate its null distribution and correct it for correlation between the two P-values. Using extensive simulations, we assess the type 1 error and power of the combined test under several scenarios and compare with other tests. We investigate powering a trial using the combined test.Results: The type 1 error of the combined test is close to nominal. Power under proportional hazards is slightly lower than for the Cox test. Enhanced power is available when the treatment difference shows an 'early effect', an initial separation of survival curves which diminishes over time. The power is reduced under a 'late effect', when little or no difference in survival curves is seen for an initial period and then a late separation occurs. We propose a method of powering a trial using the combined test. The 'insurance premium' offered by the combined test to safeguard power under non-PH represents about a single-digit percentage increase in sample size.Conclusions: The combined test increases trial power under an early treatment effect and protects power under other scenarios. Use of restricted mean survival time facilitates testing and displaying a generalized treatment effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Randomness is far from a disturbing disorder in nature. Rather, it underlies many processes and functions. Randomness can be used to improve the efficacy of development and of systems under certain conditions. Moreover, valid unpredictable random-number generators are needed for secure communication, rendering predictable pseudorandom strings unsuitable. This paper reviews methods of generating randomness in various fields. The potential use of these methods is also discussed. It is suggested that by disordering a "false order," an effective disorder can be generated to improve the function of systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The inhibitory effect of andrographolide sodium bisulphite (ASB) on jack bean urease (JBU) and Helicobacter pylori urease (HPU) was performed to elucidate the inhibitory potency, kinetics and mechanism of inhibition in 20 mM phosphate buffer, pH 7.0, 2 mM EDTA, 25 °C. Methods: The ammonia formations, indicator of urease activity, were examined using modified spectrophotometric Berthelot (phenol-hypochlorite) method. The inhibitory effect of ASB was characterized with IC50 values. Lineweaver-Burk and Dixon plots for JBU inhibition of ASB was constructed from the kinetic data. SH-blocking reagents and competitive active site Ni2+ binding inhibitors were employed for mechanism study. Molecular docking technique was used to provide some information on binding conformations as well as confirm the inhibition mode. Results: The IC50 of ASB against JBU and HPU was 3.28 ± 0.13 mM and 3.17 ± 0.34 mM, respectively. The inhibition proved to be competitive and concentration- dependent in a slow-binding progress. The rapid formation of initial ASB-JBU complex with an inhibition constant of Ki = 2.86 × 10−3 mM was followed by a slow isomerization into the final complex with an overall inhibition constant of Ki* = 1.33 × 10−4 mM. The protective experiment proved that the urease active site is involved in the binding of ASB. Thiol reagents (L-cysteine and dithiothreithol) strongly protect the enzyme from the loss of enzymatic activity, while boric acid and fluoride show weaker protection, indicating that the active-site sulfhydryl group of JBU was potentially involved in the blocking process. Moreover, inhibition of ASB proved to be reversible since ASB-inactivated JBU could be reactivated by dithiothreitol application. Molecular docking assay suggested that ASB made contacts with the important sulfhydryl group Cys-592 residue and restricted the mobility of the active-site flap. Conclusions: ASB was a competitive inhibitor targeting thiol groups of urease in a slow-binding manner both reversibly and concentration-dependently, serving as a promising urease inhibitor for the treatment of urease-related diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Autocatalytic sets are considered to be fundamental to the origin of life. Prior theoretical and computational work on the existence and properties of these sets has relied on a fast algorithm for detecting self-sustaining autocatalytic sets in chemical reaction systems. Here, we introduce and apply a modified version and several extensions of the basic algorithm: (i) a modification aimed at reducing the number of calls to the computationally most expensive part of the algorithm, (ii) the application of a previously introduced extension of the basic algorithm to sample the smallest possible autocatalytic sets within a reaction network, and the application of a statistical test which provides a probable lower bound on the number of such smallest sets, (iii) the introduction and application of another extension of the basic algorithm to detect autocatalytic sets in a reaction system where molecules can also inhibit (as well as catalyse) reactions, (iv) a further, more abstract, extension of the theory behind searching for autocatalytic sets. Results: (i) The modified algorithm outperforms the original one in the number of calls to the computationally most expensive procedure, which, in some cases also leads to a significant improvement in overall running time, (ii) our statistical test provides strong support for the existence of very large numbers (even millions) of minimal autocatalytic sets in a well-studied polymer model, where these minimal sets share about half of their reactions on average, (iii) "uninhibited" autocatalytic sets can be found in reaction systems that allow inhibition, but their number and sizes depend on the level of inhibition relative to the level of catalysis. Conclusions: (i) Improvements in the overall running time when searching for autocatalytic sets can potentially be obtained by using a modified version of the algorithm, (ii) the existence of large numbers of minimal autocatalytic sets can have important consequences for the possible evolvability of autocatalytic sets, (iii) inhibition can be efficiently dealt with as long as the total number of inhibitors is small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: When mathematical modelling is applied to many different application areas, a common task is the estimation of states and parameters based on measurements. With this kind of inference making, uncertainties in the time when the measurements have been taken are often neglected, but especially in applications taken from the life sciences, this kind of errors can considerably influence the estimation results. As an example in the context of personalized medicine, the model-based assessment of the effectiveness of drugs is becoming to play an important role. Systems biology may help here by providing good pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models. Inference on these systems based on data gained from clinical studies with several patient groups becomes a major challenge. Particle filters are a promising approach to tackle these difficulties but are by itself not ready to handle uncertainties in measurement times. Results: In this article, we describe a variant of the standard particle filter (PF) algorithm which allows state and parameter estimation with the inclusion of measurement time uncertainties (MTU). The modified particle filter, which we call MTU-PF, also allows the application of an adaptive stepsize choice in the time-continuous case to avoid degeneracy problems. The modification is based on the model assumption of uncertain measurement times. While the assumption of randomness in the measurements themselves is common, the corresponding measurement times are generally taken as deterministic and exactly known. Especially in cases where the data are gained from measurements on blood or tissue samples, a relatively high uncertainty in the true measurement time seems to be a natural assumption. Our method is appropriate in cases where relatively few data are used from a relatively large number of groups or individuals, which introduce mixed effects in the model. This is a typical setting of clinical studies. We demonstrate the method on a small artificial example and apply it to a mixed effects model of plasma-leucine kinetics with data from a clinical study which included 34 patients. Conclusions: Comparisons of our MTU-PF with the standard PF and with an alternative Maximum Likelihood estimation method on the small artificial example clearly show that the MTU-PF obtains better estimations. Considering the application to the data from the clinical study, the MTU-PF shows a similar performance with respect to the quality of estimated parameters compared with the standard particle filter, but besides that, the MTU algorithm shows to be less prone to degeneration than the standard particle filter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A new patient-reported health measurement model has been developed to quantify descriptions of health states. Known as the multi-attribute preference response (MAPR) model, it is based on item response theory. The response task in the MAPR is for a patient to judge whether hypothetical health-state descriptions are better or worse than his/her own health status.Methods: In its most simple form MAPR is a Rasch model where for each respondent on the same unidimensional health scale values are estimated of their own health status and values of the hypothetical comparator health states. These values reflect the quality or severity of the health states. Alternatively, the respondents are offered health-state descriptions that are based on a classification system (e.g., multi-attribute) with a fixed number of health attributes, each with a limited number of levels. In the latter variant, the weights of the levels of the attributes in the descriptive system, which represents the range of the health states, are estimated. The results of a small empirical study are presented to illustrate the procedures of the MAPR model and possible extensions of the model are discussed.Results: The small study that we conducted to illustrate the procedure and results of our proposed method to measure the quality of health states and patients' own health status showed confirming results.Conclusions: This paper introduces the typical MAPR model and shows how it extends the basic Rasch model with a regression function for the attributes of the health-state classification system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results: We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions: We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the creation of a new genome-wide algorithm to identify copy number variations (CNV) associations with diseases by using the hidden Markov model (HMM). They are implemented in PennCNV to derive the probabilities of various copy number states. In large case-control study, these position-specific probabilities allowed the author to run a genome-wide association (GWA) test to identify CNV SNPs that are related to the disease risk.

The article presents information on the Elementary flux modes (EFM) that are special and non-decomposable sets of metabolic reactions able to conduct coherently in steady-state. It investigates the reduction of EFM on the basis of dynamical envirome data sets. A new algorithm that discriminates the "active" set of EFM on the basis of dynamic envirome data is presented.

The article focuses on a study which aims at developing metabolic non-linear dynamic models for optimizing biotechnological purposes. It explains the methodology of the study in which canonical modeling techniques, like Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models are used for global optimization and discusses the development of an optimization algorithm useful for understanding adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. It mentions the benefits of GMA models in global optimization tasks.

Background: The main research tool for identifying microRNAs involved in specific cellular processes is gene expression profiling using microarray technology. Agilent is one of the major producers of microRNA arrays, and microarray data are commonly analyzed by using R and the functions and packages collected in the Bioconductor project. However, an analytical package that integrates the specific characteristics of microRNA Agilent arrays has been lacking. Results: This report presents the new bioinformatic tool AgiMicroRNA for the pre-processing and differential expression analysis of Agilent microRNA array data. The software is implemented in the open-source statistical scripting language R and is integrated in the Bioconductor project (http://www.bioconductor.org) under the GPL license. For the pre-processing of the microRNA signal, AgiMicroRNA incorporates the robust multiarray average algorithm, a method that produces a summary measure of the microRNA expression using a linear model that takes into account the probe affinity effect. To obtain a normalized microRNA signal useful for the statistical analysis, AgiMicroRna offers the possibility of employing either the processed signal estimated by the robust multiarray average algorithm or the processed signal produced by the Agilent image analysis software. The AgiMicroRNA package also incorporates different graphical utilities to assess the quality of the data. AgiMicroRna uses the linear model features implemented in the limma package to assess the differential expression between different experimental conditions and provides links to the miRBase for those microRNAs that have been declared as significant in the statistical analysis. Conclusions: AgiMicroRna is a rational collection of Bioconductor functions that have been wrapped into specific functions in order to ease and systematize the pre-processing and statistical analysis of Agilent microRNA data. The development of this package contributes to the Bioconductor project filling the gap in microRNA array data analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to complex dynamical systems that are too cumbersome to analyse. Results: Here, we develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example. Conclusions: We carry out careful validation of our IBM against comparable mathematical models to demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm and the sound basis for this novel framework. We discuss how this new approach can give critical insights in the study of influenza evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]