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In his treatise on International Trade, Professor Pearce has concluded that no general principles enable us to predict on a priori grounds what the individual gains or losses accruing to the participants on forming a customs union may be (Pearce [14, p. 223]). Yet it is just such a calculation of the gains or losses which constitute the economic rationale for such a union. "In these circumstances", Pearce argues, "there is little point in producing more and more complicated algebra … empirical studies are urgently awaited" (Pearce, op. cit.). In a similar vein, Professor Swann has written, "whether they (i.e. customs unions) are good or bad depends upon the particular circumstances "and "… there is no substitute for measurement in deciding the actual results of a union" (Swann [20, p. 35]). To see what light neoclassical trade theory may throw on the issue, this paper presents calculations of such gains and losses in a static trade model designed with particular reference to the accession of the United Kingdom to the European Economic Community (referred to as EC for short). As set out in detail in the next section, the model consists of four "countries", UK, EC, the Commonwealth (CW) and the rest of the world (RW), eight final commodities (two per country) and two factors per country. Fixed factor endowments are assumed, consumers maximize utility and producers maximize profits. While factors are mobile within a country, they are not mobile between countries, even when the UK joins the EC, and it is assumed that UK accession to the EC has no effects on the technology in any country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to estimate and externally validate a new UK-specific prognostic model for predicting the long-term risk of a first recurrent event (local recurrence, metastatic recurrence, or second primary breast cancer) in women diagnosed with early breast cancer.Methods: Using data on the prognostic characteristics and outcomes of 1844 women treated for early breast cancer at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, parametric regression-based survival analysis was used to estimate a prognostic model for recurrence-free survival. The model, which incorporated established prognostic factors, was externally validated using independent data. Its performance was compared with that of the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and Adjuvant! Online.Results: The number of positive axillary lymph nodes, tumour grade, tumour size and patient age were strong predictors of recurrence. Oestrogen receptor (ER) positivity was shown to afford a moderate protective effect. The model was able to separate patients into distinct prognostic groups, and predicted well at the patient level, mean Brier Accuracy Score=0.17 (s.e.=0.004) and overall C=0.745 (95% CI, 0.717-0.773). Its performance diminished only slightly when applied to a second independent data set. When compared with the NPI, the model was able to better discriminate between women with excellent and good prognoses, and it did not overestimate 10-year recurrence-free survival to the extent observed for Adjuvant! Online.Conclusion: The model estimated here predicts well at both the individual patient and group levels, and appears transportable to patients treated at other UK hospitals. Its parametric form permits long-term extrapolation giving it an advantage over other prognostic tools currently in use. A simple point scoring system and reference table allow 5-, 10-, and 15-year predictions from the model to be quickly and easily estimated. The model is also available to download as an interactive computer program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]