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In the United States, a public-health crisis of opioid overuse has been observed, and in Europe, prescriptions of opioids are strongly increasing over time. The objective was to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to be used at the beginning of an opioid prescription episode, aiming to identify individual patients at high risk for long-term opioid use based on routinely collected data. Predictors including demographics, comorbid diseases, comedication, morphine dose at episode initiation, and prescription practice were collected. The primary outcome was long-term opioid use, defined as opioid use of either >90 days duration and ≥10 claims or >120 days, independent of the number of claims. Traditional generalized linear statistical regression models and machine learning approaches were applied. The area under the curve, calibration plots, and the scaled Brier score assessed model performance. More than four hundred thousand opioid episodes were included. The final risk prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.927 (95% confidence interval 0.924-0.931) in the validation set, and this model had a scaled Brier score of 48.5%. Using a threshold of 10% predicted probability to identify patients at high risk, the overall accuracy of this risk prediction model was 81.6% (95% confidence interval 81.2% to 82.0%). Our study demonstrated that long-term opioid use can be predicted at the initiation of an opioid prescription episode, with satisfactory accuracy using data routinely collected at a large health insurance company. Traditional statistical methods resulted in higher discriminative ability and similarly good calibration as compared with machine learning approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tweedie models can be used to analyze nonnegative continuous data with a probability mass at zero. There have been wide applications in natural science, healthcare research, actuarial science, and other fields. The performance of existing Tweedie models can be limited on today's complex data problems with challenging characteristics such as nonlinear effects, high-order interactions, high-dimensionality and sparsity. In this article, we propose a kernel Tweedie model, Ktweedie, and its sparse variant, SKtweedie, that can simultaneously address the above challenges. Specifically, nonlinear effects and high-order interactions can be flexibly represented through a wide range of kernel functions, which is fully learned from the data; In addition, while the Ktweedie can handle high-dimensional data, the SKtweedie with integrated variable selection can further improve the interpretability. We perform extensive simulation studies to justify the prediction and variable selection accuracy of our method, and demonstrate the applications in ratemaking and loss-reserving in general insurance. Overall, the Ktweedie and SKtweedie outperform existing Tweedie models when there exist nonlinear effects and high-order interactions, particularly when the dimensionality is high relative to the sample size. The model is implemented in an efficient and user-friendly R package ktweedie (). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction:  In Germany, pediatric surgery is organized in a decentralized manner. A nationwide clinical registry does not exist. The aim of this research is to analyze the current status of pulmonary surgery in the country in respect of children and adolescents.Materials and Methods:  Claims data have been extracted from two health insurance databases representing 34% of the German population. Operative diagnoses and procedures, as well as patients' characteristics, were recorded from 2016 to 2019.Results:  The incidence of the four index diagnoses investigated matched the current literature in three of four entities. The main indications <8 years were congenital lung malformations (61%) and spontaneous pneumothorax at age 8 to 17 years (77%). Furthermore, 1,668 pediatric pulmonary procedures (0-17 years) were identified (668 pulmonary resections). Two age peaks were identified: 13% of patients were operated on before 1 year old and 50% of patients were between 15 and 17 years old. Video-assisted-thoracoscopic-surgery (VATS) for pulmonary resections was applied in 62% of cases. 96% of pulmonary resections in patients <1 year and 70% of pulmonary resections in children between 1 and 14 years were performed by pediatric surgeons. Of patients between 15 and 17 years old, only 14% were operated on in pediatric surgery. The estimated average pulmonary resection caseload was 3.2 cases per year and per institution for pediatric surgery and 1.5 for adult surgery.Conclusion:  Indications for pulmonary surgery in children arise from rare diagnoses. In total, 66% of lung resections are performed in patients <1 year and >14 years. The majority of lung resections are performed as VATS. Patients ≤14 years are predominantly operated on by pediatric surgeons. The accessibility of pediatric pulmonary surgery is acceptable, but there is a low caseload per center. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection can cause various cancers and can be prevented through vaccination. The American Cancer Society (ACS) has set an HPV vaccination completion target in 13-year-old children to 80% by 2026. While HPV vaccine coverage (proportion ever vaccinated) estimates are available, annual uptakes (proportion initiating vaccine in a year) in the United States (U.S.) are not well-known.Methods: We analyzed MarketScan® claims database to assess HPV vaccination uptakes in the U.S. among the 9- to 26-year-olds in 2006-2016. The annual uptake was the ratio of the number of enrollees who had a first record of an HPV vaccine during the year, and the number of enrollees of similar age and sex that year.Results: Uptake was below 1% among children turning 9 and 10 years old during the year. Since 2009 among female and since 2013 among males, the annual uptake has been the highest in those turning 13 years old (19.7% among females and 17.6% among males in 2016). Catch-up vaccination among older adolescents and young adults increased after Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations, but eventually slowed down as more younger persons were vaccinated. Most young adolescents were vaccinated by pediatricians, whereas young adult women were predominantly vaccinated by obstetricians/gynecologists and young adult males by family physicians. While only about half of the adolescents had well-check visits, the majority of those who initiated HPV vaccination had one the same year.Conclusion: Continued increase in uptake is needed to reach the ACS 2026 goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies show increasing use of urgent care centers (UCCs) and there is interest in evaluating their potential for cost savings. Previous research provides limited information on generalizable methods of identifying urgent care centers and does not validate these methods. The objective of this study is to describe and validate two claims-based UCC definitions. We used FAIR Health insurance claims from 444,263 organization National Provider Identifiers (NPIs) with at least 10 claims, January 2016–March 2019 and merged this data with National Plan and Provider Enumeration System data. The first definition required (1) a UCC place of service code (POS), (2) ≥ 10% Current Procedure Terminology (CPT) codes specific to UCCs, or (3) a UCC taxonomy code in the primary field. The second definition relaxed these criteria. A random sample of 5% of NPIs identified as UCCs were validated through internet searches. Prevalence and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated for both definitions. The first definition identified 6669 (1.5%) of NPIs as UCCs resulting in a PPV of 92%. The second definition identified 8261 (1.9%) of NPIs as UCCs and had a PPV of 87%. Out of NPIs identified under the first definition, 96% were identified using POS codes, 50% were identified using taxonomy codes, and 46% using CPT codes, with 62% of NPIs meeting multiple criteria. Findings suggest that these methods may be used by researchers to identify UCCs in studies of cost or utilization in different healthcare settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Seasonal influenza remains a global health problem; however, there are limited data on the specific relative risks for pneumonia and death among outpatients considered to be at high risk for influenza complications. This population-based study aimed to develop prediction models for determining the risk of influenza-related pneumonia and death. Methods We included patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2016 and 2017 (main cohort, n = 25 659), those diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 (validation cohort 1, n = 16 727), and those diagnosed between 2017 and 2018 (validation cohort 2, n = 34 219). Prediction scores were developed based on the incidence and independent predictors of pneumonia and death identified using multivariate analyses, and patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on total scores. Results In the main cohort, age, gender, and certain comorbidities (dementia, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and others) were independent predictors of pneumonia and death. The 28-day pneumonia incidence was 0.5%, 4.1%, and 10.8% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.75); the 28-day mortality was 0.05%, 0.7%, and 3.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.85). In validation cohort 1, c-indices for the models for pneumonia and death were 0.75 and 0.87, respectively. In validation cohort 2, c-indices for the models were 0.74 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusions We successfully developed and validated simple-to-use risk prediction models, which would promptly provide useful information for treatment decisions in primary care settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To characterize the US national level healthcare utilization patterns of patients with commercial insurance plans before and after a psychiatric hospitalization admitted through the emergency department (ED) using insurance claims data. We identified 34,250 patients from multiple commercial health insurance providers across the US who meet our eligibility criteria. We summarized their healthcare encounters and used logistic regression models to study the patterns of healthcare utilization including prior visits, outpatient follow-ups, and hospital- or ED-readmissions. Suicidal ideation was highly prevalent at the time of the index event (29.88%). Almost half of the patients (48.28%) had healthcare encounters with the same primary diagnosis one year before admission, about 5% had outpatient follow-ups or were readmitted to the hospital or ED 7 days post discharge. The post 30-day follow-ups and readmission rates were slightly higher. In general, older patients were less likely to have prior visits, follow-ups, or readmissions, and patients with SUDs, specifically alcohol dependence, opioid dependence/abuse, and stimulant dependence, were more likely to have outpatient follow-ups. Patterns of patients' prior visits, follow-ups, and readmissions varied by demographics and psychiatric comorbidity. Additional studies are needed to further explain the spatial variations of utilization patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about strategies for enrolling patients in home-based palliative care programs despite the need to conduct effectiveness studies of this emerging industry.Purpose: We used medical claims data from Accountable Care Organizations in California to identify patients for a randomized controlled trial of home-based palliative care. We report outcomes from this strategy and the implications for future research.Results: Claims data identified 1357 patients. Research assistants could not reach 986 patients (72.7%), usually because the phone calls went unanswered (38.5%) and many patients' phone numbers were missing or incorrect (16.3%). Of 371 patients reached, 163 opted out. Of 208 patients screened, 177 were ineligible for the trial. Just 10 patients were enrolled.Recommendations: Our findings suggest that medical claims data may not be useful for engaging patients potentially eligible for palliative care research trials. We recommend that alternative identification and recruitment strategies be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As Japan's population continues to age rapidly, the national government has implemented several measures to improve the efficiency of healthcare services and to control rising medical expenses for older patients. One such measure was the revision of the medical fee schedule for physician home visits in April 2014, in which eligibility for these visits was restricted to patients who are unable to visit outpatient clinics without assistance. Through an investigation of patients who were receiving physician home visits in Tokyo, this study examines whether this fee schedule revision resulted in an increase in patients who transitioned from home visits to outpatient care. In a retrospective analysis of health insurance claims data, we examined 80,914 Tokyo residents aged 75 years or older who had received at least one physician home visit between January and May 2014. The study period was divided into four periods (January–February, February–March, March–April, and April–May), and we examined the number of patients receiving home visits in the index month of each period who subsequently transitioned to outpatient care in the following month. Potential factors associated with this transition to outpatient care were examined using a generalised estimating equation. The March–April period that included the fee schedule revision was significantly associated with a higher number of patients who transitioned from home visits in the index month to outpatient care in the following month (odds ratio: 4.46, p < 0.001) than the other periods. In addition, patients receiving home visits at residential facilities were more likely to transition to outpatient care (odds ratio: 10.40, p < 0.001). These findings indicate that the fee schedule revision resulted in an increase in patients who ceased physician home visits and began visiting outpatient clinics for treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Osteoporosis is a well-known bone disorder affecting people worldwide. Patients with osteoporosis have an increased risk of bone fracture. This study provides new information on the risk of developing osteoporosis post burn injury and the risk of fracture among those with osteoporosis developed. Introduction: The relationship between burn injury and hip fracture risk is unclear. Population-based evaluation on relationships between burn injury and osteoporosis development and subsequent fractures is limited. We conducted a retrospective cohort study as the investigation. Methods: From the insurance data of Taiwan, we established a cohort of 43,532 patients with a burn injury in 2000–2012 and a comparison cohort of 174,124 individuals without such an injury, frequency matched by sex, age, and diagnosis date. Both cohorts were followed up to the end of 2013 to evaluate the occurrence of osteoporosis and hip fracture. Results: The incidence of osteoporosis was greater in the burn cohort than in the comparison cohort (6.40 vs. 4.75 per 1,000 person-years) with an adjusted IRR of 1.35 (95% confidence interval = 1.32–1.39). The incidence rates in both cohorts were greater in women than in men, increased with age, income, and Charlson comorbidity index. Patients with burns involving 20%–49% of total body surface area and with burns confined to the lower/upper limbs had the greatest incidence rates, 8.32 and 8.58 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. Osteoporosis incidence increased further to 22.7 per 1,000 person-years for burn victims with comorbid diabetes. The risk of fracture was over five-fold greater for burn victims with osteoporosis developed than for comparisons without osteoporosis. Conclusion: Patients who have a burn injury deserve prevention intervention to reduce the risk of osteoporosis and fracture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In the United States, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has recommended routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination at age 11–12 years since 2006 for girls and since 2011 for boys. ACIP also recommends vaccination through age 26 for females and through age 21 for males; males may be vaccinated through age 26. We describe vaccine uptake in adolescents and young adults using data from MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters. Methods We analyzed data on persons aged 11–26 years on December 31, 2014 who were continuously enrolled in a MarketScan health plan from age 11 through year 2014, or from 2006 to 2014 if aged ≥11 years in 2006 (916,513 females, 951,082 males). Individuals were grouped based on their age (years) in 2014: 11–12 (born 2002–03), 13–14 (2000–01), 15–16 (1998–99), 17–18 (1996–97), 19–21 (1993–95), and 22–26 (1988–1992). We calculated cumulative coverage with ≥1 HPV vaccine dose by sex, birth cohort, and calendar year. Results In females, the proportion initiating vaccination at age 11–12 years was low in 2008 and 2010 (12.6% and 11.1%) and higher in 2012 (15.7%) and 2014 (19.5%); in males, initiation at age 11–12 was 0.9% in 2010, 8.3% in 2012, and 15.1% in 2014. In females who aged into vaccine eligibility, cumulative coverage by 2014 was higher in older cohorts (17–18: 53%; 15–16: 47%; 13–14: 39%; 11–12: 19.5%). For males, cumulative coverage by 2014 was similar in those aged 13–14, 15–16, and 17–18 years (28.9%, 32.5%, 30.3%), and lower in those aged 11–12 (15.1%), 19–21 (18.4%), and 22–26 years (4.5%). Conclusion The proportion of males and females initiating vaccination at the recommended ages was low. Although more females than males were vaccinated in all cohorts, the male–female differences were smaller in younger than older cohorts. The trajectory of male vaccination uptake could signal higher acceptability in males. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Europe, scant information is available about prescription practices for pain medications. The aim of this research was to assess changes in prescription rates of non-opioid, weak opioid, and strong opioid medications between 2006 and 2013 in the Swiss population.Methods: Using insurance claims data covering one-sixth of the Swiss population, we analyzed the numbers of reimbursed pain medications, the number of reimbursements per persons, and the cumulative dose in milligrams. For opioids, the morphine equivalent dose and treatment days were calculated. Data were extrapolated to the dose per day per 100'000 population stratified by age, gender, and canton.Results: In total, 4'746'942 paracetamol, 2'156'620 NSAIDs or Coxibs, 931'129 metamizole, 1'322'272 weak opioid, and 807'835 strong opioid claims were analyzed. Between 2006 and 2013, the increase in claims per 100'000 persons was 32% for paracetamol, 242% for metamizole, 107% for NSAIDS, 86% for Coxibs, 13% for weak opioids, and 121% for strong opioids. For strong opioids the total MED in mg /100'000 increased by 117%, the treatment days /100'000 by 101%. For strong opioids, fentanyl was most frequently used (increase between 2006 and 2013 by 91% for MED/100'000 persons and 94% treatment days / 100'000) followed by buprenorphine and oxycodone. The highest proportional increase in MED / 100'000 was observed for methadone (+1414%) and oxycodone (+313%). Marked geographical variation was detected in the use of metamizole, paracetamole, and strong opioids in different cantons.Conclusion: The analysis of insurance claims data provides evidence that the prescription rates for pain medications increased in Switzerland within the last ten years, in particular for metamizole and strong opioids. Furthermore, the prescription rates for metamizole, paracetamol, and strong opioids varied substantially between different cantons in Switzerland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ageing population correlates with rising needs for long-term care ( LTC). Support programmes should consider the specific needs of the various subgroups of care dependents and family caregivers. The objective of this study was to analyse the gender-specific disparities in home-care arrangements in Germany, and for this purpose, survey and insurance claims data were used. A survey of 2545 insured care recipients with high-level care needs was conducted in 2012 with the Barmer GEK, a major German statutory healthcare insurance. Insurance claims data were provided for a follow-up, focussing on the group aged 60 years and older. For statistical comparison, chi-squared test and t-tests were used, and a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Most care recipients are female, and they are on average 2 years older than males. Men receive family care mostly from their wives, whereas widows frequently live alone and receive care from daughters, sons, other relatives, neighbours and friends, as well as from professional nursing services. Furthermore, women more often anticipate the need for (further) professional assistance and move in with a relative or to an assisted living facility or a nursing home in good time. The desired rate for relocation to a nursing home was higher than the anticipated, and during the 6-month follow-up, the actual rate of relocations was in between both. In summary, the caring situation of men and women is different. Care-receiving men are most often cared for by their wives. Widowed women need a social network and their children in order to remain in their own home. To provide better home-care arrangements for women in this situation, the family and social networks need a stronger focus in politics and research. To stabilise the home-care situation of men with high-level care needs, their wives need more support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To describe how computer-assisted presentation of case data can lead experts to infer machine-implementable rules for case definition in electronic health records. As an illustration the technique has been applied to obtain a definition of acute liver dysfunction (ALD) in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).Methods: The technique consists of repeatedly sampling new batches of case candidates from an enriched pool of persons meeting presumed minimal inclusion criteria, classifying the candidates by a machine-implementable candidate rule and by a human expert, and then updating the rule so that it captures new distinctions introduced by the expert. Iteration continues until an update results in an acceptably small number of changes to form a final case definition.Results: The technique was applied to structured data and terms derived by natural language processing from text records in 29,336 adults with IBD. Over three rounds the technique led to rules with increasing predictive value, as the experts identified exceptions, and increasing sensitivity, as the experts identified missing inclusion criteria. In the final rule inclusion and exclusion terms were often keyed to an ALD onset date. When compared against clinical review in an independent test round, the derived final case definition had a sensitivity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 79%.Conclusion: An iterative technique of machine-supported expert review can yield a case definition that accommodates available data, incorporates pre-existing medical knowledge, is transparent and is open to continuous improvement. The expert updates to rules may be informative in themselves. In this limited setting, the final case definition for ALD performed better than previous, published attempts using expert definitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We study the Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance program as a bellwether for designs of private, non-mandatory health insurance markets, focusing on the ability of consumers to evaluate and optimize their choices of plans. Our analysis of administrative data on medical claims in Medicare Part D suggests that fewer than 25% of individuals enroll in plans that are ex ante as good as the least cost plan specified by the Plan Finder tool made available to seniors by the Medicare administration, and that consumers on average have expected excess spending of about $300 per year, or about 15% of expected total out-of-pocket cost for drugs and Part D insurance. These numbers are hard to reconcile with decision costs alone; it appears that unless a sizeable fraction of consumers place large values on plan features other than cost, they are not optimizing effectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Adjusting for laboratory test results may result in better confounding control when added to administrative claims data in the study of treatment effects. However, missing values can arise through several mechanisms. Methods: We studied the relationship between availability of outpatient lab test results, lab values, and patient and system characteristics in a large healthcare database using LDL, HDL, and HbA1c in a cohort of initiators of statins or Vytorin (ezetimibe & simvastatin) as examples. Results: Among 703,484 patients 68% had at least one lab test performed in the 6 months before treatment. Performing an LDL test was negatively associated with several patient characteristics, including recent hospitalization (OR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.29-0.34), MI (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.69-0.85), or carotid revascularization (OR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.25-0.53). Patient demographics, diagnoses, and procedures predicted well who would have a lab test performed (AUC = 0.89 to 0.93). Among those with test results available claims data explained only 14% of variation. Conclusions: In a claims database linked with outpatient lab test results, we found that lab tests are performed selectively corresponding to current treatment guidelines. Poor ability to predict lab values and the high proportion of missingness reduces the added value of lab tests for effectiveness research in this setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objective: Rising life expectancy is associated with higher prevalence rates of dementia disorders. When disease progresses the patients'' call on formal health care services and on social support grows which imposes increasing costs of care. The aim of this study was to investigate the costs for patients with mild and moderate dementia in community setting in Germany. Methods: We assessed total costs of care and individual cost components for 383 community-living dementia patients alongside a cluster-randomized trial from societal and health insurance perspective. Utilization of formal health care services was based on insurance claims data and time dedicated to informal care was assessed within caregiver interviews. We estimated costs using a two-part regression model adjusting for age, gender and cluster-effects. Results: Costs of care equal €47,747 (Euros) from societal perspective which is almost the 4.7-fold of health insurance expenditures. Valued informal care covers 80.2% of societal costs and increases disproportionally when disease progresses. In moderate dementia the corresponding amount exceeds the one in mild dementia by 69.9%, whereas costs for formal health care services differ by 14.3%. Conclusion: Due to valued informal care, costs of care for community-living patients with moderate dementia are significantly higher than for patients with mild dementia. Informal care is a non-cash item saving expenditures for professional care. To relieve social security system and family caregivers as well as to allow dementia patients to stay at home as long as possible, concepts fostering community-based dementia care and support to family caregivers need to be further developed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]