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Fritillaria imperialis is a bulbous plant that has increased commercial value and contributes to rural development in Turkey. It is widely utilized in traditional medicine and pharmacy, and has great potential for use in modern pharmaceuticals in the future. As the effects of climate change on this plant have not been documented, this study aimed to understand how climate change might affect F. imperialis. The methodology of the study was divided into three steps: (i) database development, including the current distribution zones of F. imperialis and climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation data; (ii) determination of the plant's temperature and precipitation requirements; and (iii) Ecocrop's plant climate suitability modeling (PCSM). As a result of the study, it was determined that climatic suitability would decrease below 20% in the plant's current distribution area between 2,000 m and 3,000 m altitude. For the zones between 500-1,000 m altitude, the climatic suitability will be as high as 100%. Although there are zones where climatic suitability will increase by 2070, the general trend shows that suitability will decrease. This change in the plant ecosystem is explained by the decreased winter precipitation and snowfall but increased temperature and evaporation at higher altitudes. Fritillaria imperialis is expected to shift its geographic distribution to lower altitudes because of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural food production is both affected by and contributing to climate change. At the global scale, agri-food systems are responsible for one-third of total greenhouse gas emissions. With progressing climate change, the risks of crop failure increase. Thus, an urgent need is to reduce emissions from food systems while increasing their resilience to climate change. Enormous untapped potentials to achieve these dual goals lie in transforming agri-food systems towards more diverse, plant-based, and regional food production systems. In this paper, we present an innovative approach for identifying climate-adapted alternative food crops that could (1) help to diversify existing cropping systems and thus increase their climate resilience and can be (2) nutritious elements of plant-based regional diets with reduced emissions. The approach builds on the model ecocrop to select food crops that could benefit from regionally projected changes in climate. The model-based analysis is complemented with a literature review to examine the ecocrop results for their plausibility and provide a broader assessment of potentials for cultivation, utilization, and nutritional values of model-selected crops. The approach is applied to Switzerland, where we identify eight alternative crops with the potential to increase climate resilience while contributing to healthy human diets of regional consumers with benefits for climate mitigation (almond, pecan, sesame, durum wheat, quinoa, lentil, lupine, and borage). The literature review indicated that the increasing demand for many of these crops suggests great potential for regional marketing of crop products. The results produced in this study provide an initial guide for researchers and innovative farmers interested in experimenting with alternative crops in Switzerland, thus promoting climate-smart food system transformation from the production side. Using our unbiased bottom-up screening approach, we identified climate-adapted alternative crops that can provide essential nutrients, cover nutritional gaps in Switzerland, diversify existing production systems, and improve sustainability. [Display omitted] • Innovative bottom-up screening approach identifies climate-adapted alternative crops. • Almond, pecan, sesame, durum wheat, quinoa, lentil, lupine, and borage are identified. • Identified crops provide essential nutrients and cover nutritional gaps in Switzerland. • Selected crops can diversify existing production systems to improve sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth is in an era, when the natural balance has been deteriorated by the human and the adverse effects have been increased by these deteriorations. The adverse effects of global climate change have no limitations, and if these effects are overlooked by the human, they shall spread to all areas rapidly. The plants, which are so important for all living creatures, shall be faced with deaths, migrations or adaptation challenges in the future because of the climate change-originated geographical alteration on the variables such as air temperature and precipitation. These reasons make essential the estimations of geographical distribution of plants in the future. In the study, the geographic-climatic suitability of maize, safflower, canola (rape), cotton, wheat and switchgrass was projected for 2070, and the current and future conditions were compared. The applied steps in the study are; (1) the climatic data - obtained from Worldclim as current and 2070-projected data, (2) the identification of essential temperature and precipitation intervals for crops' growth from EcoCrop, (3) application of the Climate Change Adaptation Modeler (CCAM)'s sub-model "Crop Climatic Suitability Modeling (CCSM)" in TerrSet, a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing software by Clark Labs, and finally (4) generation of the climatic suitability maps for each crop for current and future. With this study, the climate-based geographic suitability of plants was evaluated for Turkey where is dominated by Mediterranean climate pattern as 41.1% in Köppen Climate Classification. In the study, the projected areal suitability of maize, switchgrass and cotton shall not change significantly according to current conditions. Safflower's and canola's areal suitability shall expand and displace, respectively. Here, the major loser in areal suitability shall be wheat in Turkey. The methodology may aid for planners and land managers to understand changes in climatic suitability of plants from present to future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate has been changing in the last three decades and will continue changing regardless of any mitigation strategy. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and hence is highly sensitive to climatic changes and climate variability. Nevertheless, there is a knowledge gap when agricultural researchers intend to assess the production of minor crops for which data or models are not available. Therefore, we integrated the current expert knowledge reported in the FAO-EcoCrop database, with the basic mechanistic model (also named EcoCrop), originally developed by Hijmans et al. (2001). We further developed the model, providing calibration and evaluation procedures. To that aim, we used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench) as a case study and both calibrated EcoCrop for the sorghum crop and analyzed the impacts of the SRES-A1B 2030s climate on sorghum climatic suitability. The model performed well, with a high true positive rate (TPR) and a low false negative rate (FNR) under present conditions when assessed against national and subnational agricultural statistics (min TPR=0.967, max FNR=0.026). The model predicted high sorghum climatic suitability in areas where it grows optimally and matched the sorghum geographic distribution fairly well. Negative impacts were predicted by 2030s. Vulnerabilities in countries where sorghum cultivation is already marginal are likely (with a high degree of certainty): the western Sahel region, southern Africa, northern India, and the western coast of India are particularly vulnerable. We highlight the considerable opportunity of using EcoCrop to assess global food security issues, broad climatic constraints and regional crop-suitability shifts in the context of climate change and the possibility of coupling it with other large-area approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is projected to negatively impact food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The magnitude of these impacts is expected to be amplified by the extensive reliance on rainfed agriculture and the prevalence of subsistence farming. In the Great Lakes Region of Central Africa, smallholder farming households are largely dependent on root, tuber and banana crops. However, the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on these crops are not well reported. Yet, data-rich insights about the future impacts of climate change on these crops and the adaptive capacity of food systems in the Great Lakes Region is critical to inform research and development investments towards regional climate change adaptation. We aimed to gain insights of potential impacts of climate change on root, tuber, and banana crops in the Great Lakes Region, specifically investigating changes to localised crop suitability, planting dates, and identifying potential 'climate-proof' variety types of each crop for specific geographies. We developed a modified version of the EcoCrop model to analyse the suitability of future climates for four key root, tuber, and banana crops (banana, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato) and a suite of varieties for each (typical, heat-tolerant, drought-tolerant, and early maturing). The model considers only the direct impacts of climate change on crop suitability. It does not consider how climate change impacts crop suitability by affecting the occurrence of extreme weather events or indirect effects on incidence and severity of pest and disease outbreaks. Our results demonstrate that climate change will be somewhat favourable to root, tuber, and banana-based systems, with only widespread negative impacts seen for potato. These changes should be qualified by the observation that in most cases the environmental suitability for banana, cassava, and sweetpotato will remain constant or improve if farmers shift planting schedules. Location- and crop-dependent shifts to different variety types were found to be effective in improving suitability under future climates. Data driven insights generated from this work can be used as a first step in developing spatially explicit recommendations for both farmers and decision-makers on how to adapt to climate change and plan investment in the research needed to adapt root, tuber, and banana-based livelihoods and systems to those long-term changes. [Display omitted] • Root, tuber and banana (RT&B) systems are prevalent in Central Africa, yet there is limited knowledge of climate change impacts on these systems. • Adapted version of EcoCrop model generated insights on how future climates may affect the suitability of Central African RT&B systems. • Study analysed RT&B crop and variety suitability, shifts in planting date, and identified implications for future research. • Climate change will marginally favour RT&B crops, except potato. Planting date shifts and variety selection could ensure future suitability. • Data-driven insights generated from this work can be a first step in developing spatially explicit recommendations across distinct timeframes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is vital for farmers to know if their land is suitable for the crops that they plan to grow. An increasing number of studies have used machine learning models based on land use data as an efficient means for mapping land suitability. This approach relies on the assumption that farmers grow their crops in the best-suited areas, but no studies have systematically tested this assumption. We aimed to test the assumption for specialty crops in Denmark. First, we mapped suitability for 41 specialty crops using machine learning. Then, we compared the predicted land suitabilities with the mechanistic model ECOCROP (Ecological Crop Requirements). The results showed that there was little agreement between the suitabilities based on machine learning and ECOCROP. Therefore, we argue that the methods represent different phenomena, which we label as socioeconomic suitability and ecological suitability, respectively. In most cases, machine learning predicts socioeconomic suitability, but the ambiguity of the term land suitability can lead to misinterpretation. Therefore, we highlight the need for increasing awareness of this distinction as a way forward for agricultural land suitability assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Current protein-rich crop distributions reflect climatic suitability • Climate change has a divergent impact on protein-rich crops across Europe • Traditional protein-rich crops sensitive to climatic changes in southern Europe • Non-traditional crops may present potential future crop options • Research and breeding activities needed to address stress-related sensitivity Replacing animal proteins with plant proteins in diets has been demonstrated to have both health and environmental advantages, driving a debate about the potential of protein-rich crops as dietary replacements for animal products. However, there is a lack of knowledge on how climate change could influence the potential for producing protein-rich crops. This study addresses this knowledge gap for the European Union. We analysed 13 protein-rich crops, using the crop suitability model EcoCrop and climate projections for the 2050s, based on 30 Global Circulation Models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. The results suggest that current protein-rich crop distributions reflect climatic suitability. We demonstrate the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop suitability. In general, conditions in northern Europe were modelled to become more favourable for protein-rich crops, while in southern Europe modelled future climates limit the production of traditional protein-rich crops commonly grown there, including chickpea and lentil. Model results show an expanded area of high suitability for quinoa. Our results confirm the need for concerted breeding and research planning strategies to improve the tolerance of faba bean, lentil, and chickpea to the abiotic stresses that are predicted to become more common with climate change. At the same time, production in northern Europe can benefit from experimentation with protein-rich crops predicted to become more suitable there. Production planning and agricultural policy should consider these likely impacts, to encourage shifts that follow the emerging geographic patterns of crop suitability, and to support the resilience of protein-rich crop production in regions that may be negatively impacted by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]