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This article investigates the predictability of dry bulk shipments’ physical shipping costs while testing the predictive significance of derivative products. Accordingly, a comprehensive grid search procedure is needed to simulate combinations of model structures subject to a cross-validation process. In this regard, the intelligent model search engine (IMSE) is implemented as the search algorithm. The IMSE algorithm is selected due to its broad model space naturally consisting most of the traditional econometric model structures and advanced features, such as sample size optimization (also detects structural breaks), lag structure optimization (also reflects seasonality), among others. In contrast to the previous studies in the shipping market research, IMSE executes a relaxation of statistical significance criteria to target the out of sample predictive accuracy (instead of the goodness of fit). Sparsification is retained by utilizing a dropout procedure in line with the cross-validation process. The empirical results indicate the fact that predictive accuracy can be achieved or improved with a shorter sample period. More than half of the entire dataset has not been utilized in the final selections for most simulations. One-month and two-month maturity derivative contracts are tested for predictive features, while none of them is selected for the sparse model selections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the strategic behavior of wind producers in the presence of uncertain wind resource availability, where wind availability is correlated across firms. We study how the level of correlation between different firms' wind resources impacts strategy and market outcomes. The main insight of our analysis is that increasing heterogeneity in resource availability improves social welfare, as a function of its effects both on improving diversification and on reducing withholding by firms. We show that this insight is robust for common assumptions regarding electricity demand. The model is also used to analyze the effect of wind resource heterogeneity on firm profits and opportunities for collusion. Finally, we analyze the impacts of improving public information and weather forecasting; enhanced public forecasting increases welfare, but it is not always in the best interests of strategic producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to substantiation of theoretical bases of mechanisms of formation of effective logistics of commodity markets on the basis of the reproduction approach. There are four approaches to defining the essence of the economic category of «mechanism», namely: (1) organizational and coordination; (2) managerial; (3) evolutionary; (4) complex. Based on a comprehensive approach, the author's definition of the category «mechanism for the formation of efficient logistics of commodity markets» with an emphasis on the reproduction purpose of market logistics has been proposed. The comparative analysis of mechanisms of formation of market logistics of different types has been carried out: logistic interaction, managerial and complex. It has been emphasized that the implementation of a comprehensive mechanism involves a combination of organizational methods with socio-economic, administrative and institutional methods of influencing the object of management. The relationships and interactions of logistics mechanisms at the micro and macro levels, the interpenetration of different methods and ways of management in mechanisms of different types have been studied. It has been emphasized that the logistics component is integrated into certain organizational and economic mechanisms for managing the development of the national economy and its sectors. The state, as a regulator of commodity markets, forms the institutional environment and develops mechanisms for implementing economic, environmental and social policies that regulate the flow processes of commodity markets. The theoretical and methodological basis of the complex mechanism of formation of effective logistics of commodity markets has been developed. The expediency of the managerial influence of the state has been substantiated, on the one hand, on the logistical «gaps» of the flow processes of commodity markets to ensure their logistical integrity, on the other hand, on the leading links of strategic markets to optimize the structural construction of the market chain. Emphasis is placed on the cyclical nature of the process of diagnosis and regulation of «gaps» and the leading links in the chain, the importance of providing feedback between the subject and the object of control. Methodical provisions of diagnostics of efficiency of regulation of leading links of market chains on the basis of synthesis of reproduction and regulatory approaches has been developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market information in Ethiopia is not readily available to rural farmers and traders. Currently, the existing market system allows intermediaries to decide the market price of the product unfavourably to the farmers. On the other hand, traders cannot not access marketoriented commodities that can be sold at good prices. This paper attempts to design SMS (short message service) based intelligent market information monitoring system that acts as a platform where farmers and traders can share market information in various market domains. The development of the system followed a Rapid Application Development (RAD) approach where testing and evaluation is performed for accuracy, efficiency, usability, acceptance and performance on two crucial aspects of the system: SMS gateway and Query Understanding Engine (QUE). The evaluation and test result of the system is promising. It is found to be that 95% (Accuracy), 89.2% (efficiency), 90.21 (SUS score) and 3.9 seconds (Mean Average performance/speed) is registered. Moreover, User Acceptance Testing (UAT) evaluation showed that it is 'Accepted' for use. It showed that such kinds of systems can solve the problems of lack of easily accessible market information by rural farmers and traders this shows that the system can contribute significantly to improving the accessibility of market information for rural farmers and traders in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper systematically evaluates the influence of international crude oil risk on Chinese macro-financial risks, by quantifying risk spillover effects from international crude oil market to China's three major markets (stock, foreign exchange and commodity markets). Specifically, this paper initially calculates the risks of international crude oil market and China's three major markets by adopting a conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model, then the spillover index is used to capture the risk spillovers from international crude oil market to China's major markets. The empirical results indicate that there exists significant heterogeneous risk spillover effects transmitted from international crude oil market to China's three major markets. To be more specific, the risk derived from international crude oil market is always a dominant driving force of risk in China's commodity market. However, the shocks of global oil risk do not affect much of the risks of China's stock and foreign exchange markets in general. In addition, our results further report that international oil risk has considerable effects on China's macro-financial risks during several specific periods, which can be attributed to several major events. Specifically, the risk spillovers originated from international crude oil market remarkably contribute to the risk of China's commodity market during the period of global financial crisis. International crude oil risk makes great contribution to the risks of Chinese stock and foreign exchange markets, when several global notable events occur as well as major financial reforms in China are implemented. The empirical results have significant implications for policy-makers and market participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article the methodological aspects of commodity market glocalization have been grounded, attention has been focused on the target orientation of this process - ensuring effective integration of local markets into the global space on the basis of realization of economic interests of the region / state. The main principles of market glocalization has been defined, namely: priority of economic interests of the state / region, parity of local-global interactions, efficiency, ecology, formalization. A four-stage procedure for diagnostics of commodity market glocalization is proposed, the results of which form an analytical basis for the development of strategies and mechanisms for innovative development of regional markets on the basis of glocalization. The main problems of innovative development of strategic grain market and products of its processing in Odessa region have been identified. It has been noted that in Odessa region and the country as a whole, market glocalization is of a raw material nature that does not correspond to their economic interests and does not facilitate the introduction of innovations in the grain field and the development of local territories. The basic economic interests of the region in the grain market and products of its processing with the emphasis on ensuring the food and environmental security of the region, efficient use of its resource potential, optimization of market added value have been substantiated. In accordance with the methodological bases of market glocalization, four scenarios of innovative development of the regional grain market and its products have been identified, reflecting the relationship between the degree of realization of the economic interests of the region and the degree of glocalization of the market. The feasibility of implementing the fourth scenario, focused on increasing the production and export of grain and bread products, has been proved. According to the results of empirical research, strategic directions and instruments of innovative development of the regional grain market and products of its processing on the basis of glocalization have been substantiated. The emphasis is on changing the vector of market glocalization from raw materials to processing, introduction of advanced resource-saving technologies in all sectors of the market, gradual import substitution of processing products for increasing value added, as the main resource for sustainable innovative market development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the art icle the conceptual basis for harmonizat ion the economic interests of the subjects of logist ics chains of commodity markets are substant iated. A methodical approach to assessing the economic interests' balance of market chain subjects has been determined, which is based on the ident ificat ion of the main «blocks» of interact ion and the system of indicators at the micro, macro and global levels. The orientat ion and depth of the cont radict ions of economic interests of the logist ics chains subjects of the agrarian market of Ukraine are determined. Based on empirical research are proved, that the basic contradict ion in the chain of a given market is a contradict ion between the interests of the ent it ies of the corporate and individual sectors, which violates the dist ribut ion parity value added between subjects and links in the chain that is not in line with nat ional economic interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this scient ific art icle the essence and concepts of logist ic st ructure of commodity markets are revealed. St ructural-logist ical schemes of logist ic st ructures of different types of commodity markets have been const ructed and analyzed. The st ructural elements of the logist ic st ructure of the market are ident ified, their propert ies and functional relat ionships are analyzed, which influences the realizat ion of the goals of functioning of the logist ic chain of the market as a system as a whole. On the basis of the established principles and features, the classificat ion of different types of logistics st ructures was carried out and the expediency of their considerat ion in the implementat ion of the respect ive logist ics projects was substant iated. A link model of the chain has been developed that allows it to be structured according to the stages of value added format ion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern conditions, the development of market systems is characterized simultaneously by two opposite trends: globalization and localization. Relevance of the research and evaluation of modern processes of globalization of commodity markets is stipulated by necessity of formation scientific and analytical basis for the development of a modern integration policy in internal and external dimensions, as well as for substantiation of foreign economic priorities of the country development in the conditions of open economy. The aim of the article is to determine the theoretical essence of globalization of commodity markets and its modern trends on the example of Ukrainian markets of grains and bakery products. In the research, the following methods are used: dialectics, structural and dynamic analysis, horizontal and vertical comparative analysis. In the article the nature of the category «market globalization» has been determined authors by decomposition and component analysis, its interrelation with the processes of market integration and disintegration is shown. Two forms of globalization have been determined – internal and external, modern tendencies of globalization have been investigated on the example of Ukrainian markets of grains and bakery products. The conclusion has been made concerning interregional integration of Odessa market, expanding the limits of the local market, its stabilizing function in the development of grain processing complex in Black Sea region. Vectors and problems of external globalization of the domestic market of bakery products of long storage have been shown, the emphasis has been made on the need to increase the export of the processed products. Conclusions. The directions of modernization of the state integration policy in the internal and external dimensions have been substantiated. The accents of internal integration policy are advisable to direct in support of regional producers of the qualitative processing products, facilitating them in certification of goods. The vector of the foreign integration policy is advisable to focus on strengthening positions of exporters of processed products in foreign markets, solution of the problem of quality and safety of cereal products. The conclusion has been made on the need for balancing the internal and external components of the integration policy for maximum effects from commodity market globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates financial states and group dynamics by applying principal component analysis to the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns of commodity futures. The eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix in the 6-month timeframe displays similar values during 2010–2011, but decline following 2012. A sharp drop in eigenvalue implies the significant change of the market state. Three commodity sectors, energy, metals and agriculture, are projected into two dimensional spaces consisting of two principal components (PC). We observe that they form three distinct clusters in relation to various sectors. However, commodities with distinct features have intermingled with one another and scattered during severe crises, such as the European sovereign debt crises. We observe the notable change of the position of two dimensional spaces of groups during financial crises. By considering the first principal component (PC1) within the 6-month moving timeframe, we observe that commodities of the same group change states in a similar pattern, and the change of states of one group can be used as a warning for other group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the world of increasing price volatility, it is more important than ever to understand how to manage the price risk. The paper deals with the price risk management issues associated with commodities. Using options is performed by an analysis of hedging strategies in the commodity market. The authors focus on the application of the vanilla option strategies to risk manage ment in order to point out the advantages and disadvantages of each hedging strategy. Based on the general expressions of selling price intervals, there are modelled various hedged scenarios of wheat. The authors look at the wheat option contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. The comparative comparison of the option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the commodity seller who hedges against a price decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at investigating the time varying relationship between Islamic equity and commodity returns in order to examine how combination of Islamic equities and commodities contribute to the benefits of portfolio investors and managers. In order to investigate this relationship, we employed multivariate GARCH method on return series of five different commodity groups (energy, precious metals, agricultural, non-ferrous metals and softs group), Dow Jones spot commodity index as a proxy of an aggregate commodity market and Dow Jones Islamic index over the period January 3, 2001 - March 28, 2013. Our findings show that correlations between commodity and Islamic stock markets' returns change in different time periods and these two markets moved very closely during 2008 financial crisis in particular. Besides, volatility of returns in both markets reached at their peaks during the 2008 crisis period. We also show that despite sharing some common features, commodities cannot be considered as a homogeneous asset class: a speculation phenomenon is for instance, highlighted for energy sector comprising oil, while the safe-haven role of gold is evidenced, which constitutes a part of precious metal sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 40% of Global Fund money goes toward procurement. However, no analyses have been published to show how costs vary across regions and time, despite the availability of procurement data collected through the Global Fund's price and quality reporting system.We analyzed data for the 3 most widely procured commodities for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of HIV. These were male condoms, HIV rapid tests, and the antiretroviral (ARV) combination of lamivudine/nevirapine/zidovudine. The compared costs, first across time (2005-2012), then across regions, and finally, between individual procurement reported through the price and quality reporting and pooled procurement reported through the Global Fund's voluntary pooled procurement system. All costs were adjusted for inflation and reported in US dollars.There were 2337 entries from 578 grants in 125 countries. The procurement cost for the ARV dropped substantially over the period, whereas those for condoms and HIV tests remained relatively stable. None of the commodity prices increased. Regional variations were pronounced for HIV tests, but minimal for condoms and the ARV. The unit cost for the 3-table ARV combination, for instance, varied between US$0.15 and US$0.23 in South Asia and the Eastern Europe/Central Asia regions, respectively, compared with a range of $0.23 (South Asia)—$1.50 (Eastern Europe/Central Asia) for a single diagnostic test. Pooled procurement lowered costs for condoms but not the other commodities.We showed how global procurement costs vary by region and time. Such analyses should be done more often to identify and correct market insufficiencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Grids, single user-based brokers focus on meeting individual user job's quality of service requirements such as minimising the cost and time without considering demands from other users. This results in contention for resources and suboptimal schedules. Meta-scheduling in Grids aims to address this scheduling problem, which is NP-hard due to its combinatorial nature. Thus, many heuristic-based solutions using genetic algorithm (GA) have been proposed, apart from traditional algorithms such as greedy and first come first serve. In this paper, we propose the need for a ‘meta-brokering system’ and present a Meta-Broker which schedules multiple jobs on utility Grids. First, we present the architecture of our Meta-Broker and discuss the requirements and functionalities of the Meta-Broker. We, then, propose a linear programming (LP)/integer programming model for scheduling user jobs to multiple resources. We also propose a novel algorithm LP-driven GA which combines the capabilities of LP and GA. The aim of this algorithm is to obtain the best meta-schedule that minimises the combined cost of all users in a coordinated manner. Simulation results show that in comparison to single user-based brokers such as Gridbus and GRUBER, our proposed integrated algorithm offers the best schedule having the minimum processing cost with negligible time overhead. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]