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The Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is a scavenging bird of prey that was once widespread on the Iberian Peninsula. Its current distribution in Spain is limited to specific mountain ranges, including the Aragonese Pyrenees. The decline of the Iberian population has been linked to factors acting at a micro-scale level, such as the use of poisons, illegal hunting, and a decrease in extensive livestock farming. There are, however, other factors acting on a biogeographical scale that are not currently being considered and may also be affecting the viability of populations. The aim of this case study was to investigate the influences of large-scale environmental conditions on temporal variation in the reproductive parameters of the Bearded Vulture breeding population in the Aragonese Pyrenees. We tested the degree to which each of 26 macroclimatic oscillation indices with an effect on regional weather conditions were teleconnected with three reproductive parameters (hatching rate, fledging rate, and productivity). Two indices—the Tropical Northern Atlantic and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern—were temporally correlated with Bearded Vulture reproductive parameters. The study results provide novel information to facilitate Bearded Vulture conservation because no previous studies have addressed this issue from a biogeographical and macroecological perspective. The results could have important implications for the management and conservation of the species and its successful reintroduction in other territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the current pattern of climate change, mountain bird populations are generally shifting their ranges to higher elevations, tracking their climatic optima. Nevertheless, space limitations at high altitudes constrain mountain species' resilience to climatic change, making them particularly vulnerable. In extreme cases, the climatic niche of some species can move beyond mountaintops, ultimately driving such species to extinction. This study presents the case of the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe in mainland Spain and compares its breeding distribution from 2003 to 2022. Spain, where the species mostly occupies mountain areas, represents its southernmost distribution limit in Europe. We built environmental favourability models using information from the two most recent Spanish bird atlases and a set of climatic, topographic, human activity and lithological variables to determine the factors affecting the occurrence of the species. The influence of climate compared to all other factors was obtained using variation partitioning analysis. The northern wheatear has suffered a strong reduction (67%) in occupied areas and also in favourability throughout mainland Spain (especially in the south) where climate change may have far‐reaching consequences, including local extinctions. Climate explained more than 90% of the variation in the model obtained for 2022. Interestingly, the occupied areas were, on average, 100 m higher in 2022 than in 2003. If the effects of climate warming persist, the northern wheatear will likely disappear in its southernmost distribution limit, being the Sierra de las Nieves National Park population the most vulnerable in mainland Spain. For this reason, it is necessary to implement monitoring programmes for northern wheatear populations, with priority for mountain systems wherein they already occupy higher elevations, as well as further studies on other mountain species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yellow fever is transmitted by mosquitoes among human and non-human primates. In the last decades, infections are occurring in areas that had been free from yellow fever for decades, probably as a consequence of the rapid spread of mosquito vectors, and of the virus evolutionary dynamic in which non-human primates are involved. This research is a pathogeographic assessment of where enzootic cycles, based on primate assemblages, could be amplifying the risk of yellow fever infections, in the context of spatial changes shown by the disease since the late 20th century. In South America, the most relevant spread of disease cases affects parts of the Amazon basin and a wide area of southern Brazil, where forest fragmentation could be activating enzootic cycles next to urban areas. In Africa, yellow fever transmission is apparently spreading from the west of the continent, and primates could be contributing to this in savannas around rainforests. Our results are useful for identifying new areas that should be prioritised for vaccination, and suggest the need of deep yellow fever surveillance in primates of South America and Africa. Models based on primates and disease vectors indicate a risk of zoonotic and anthroponotic yellow fever expansion in South America and Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yellow fever is transmitted by mosquitoes among human and non-human primates. In the last decades, infections are occurring in areas that had been free from yellow fever for decades, probably as a consequence of the rapid spread of mosquito vectors, and of the virus evolutionary dynamic in which non-human primates are involved. This research is a pathogeographic assessment of where enzootic cycles, based on primate assemblages, could be amplifying the risk of yellow fever infections, in the context of spatial changes shown by the disease since the late 20th century. In South America, the most relevant spread of disease cases affects parts of the Amazon basin and a wide area of southern Brazil, where forest fragmentation could be activating enzootic cycles next to urban areas. In Africa, yellow fever transmission is apparently spreading from the west of the continent, and primates could be contributing to this in savannas around rainforests. Our results are useful for identifying new areas that should be prioritised for vaccination, and suggest the need of deep yellow fever surveillance in primates of South America and Africa. Models based on primates and disease vectors indicate a risk of zoonotic and anthroponotic yellow fever expansion in South America and Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The boundaries of species distributions are often shaped by natural barriers, such as mountains and rivers, but species distribution models usually fail to include these constraints. We tested several approaches that include barriers as explanatory variables in species distribution models. Location: Africa and South America. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Primates. Methods: We modelled the ranges of pairs of species separated by a river, taking into account three explanatory components: the environment (ecosystems, topohydrography, climate and human pressure), the spatial structure shaped by history and population dynamics (using a trend‐surface approach) and rivers as naturals barriers to dispersal (using a binary cis–trans variable that describes both sides of the river). To assess how the addition of a spatial structure and the barrier could improve distribution models, we used a nested approach by comparing models based on: (a) the environment; (b) the environment and the spatial structure; and (c) the environment, the spatial structure and the river. These models were constructed using favourability functions. Results: There was a decreased occurrence of high‐favourability values on the opposite side of the rivers in models that included the spatial structure of distributions compared with models based on the environment alone. This decrease was more marked when the description of the spatial structure was made more flexible. However, model performance was significantly improved by the inclusion of cis–trans variables that identified areas on the opposite side as totally unfavourable. Main conclusions: The performance of distribution models can be improved by the use of approaches that describe barriers. Although adding the location of geographical units in relationship to a river appears to be the most accurate way to define the presence of a barrier, defining this variable may be challenging. A suitable alternative is to analyse the spatial structure of distributions using a flexible approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Ongoing climate change is presently influencing the distribution ranges of numerous species, with both range expansions and latitudinal shifts being observed. In southern Europe, a biogeographical border that separates African and European biota, while at the same time acting as a migration bridge for many species, these changes are of particular relevance. This study aimed to analyse the responses of nine typically African birds to climate change to provide information on the ongoing and future occupation of Europe by these species. Location: Western Palearctic and surrounding areas. Methods: To this end, the distributions of the species in their native ranges were modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using their current breeding ranges and a set of topographic and climatic variables. The climatic favourability for the nine species was then combined using fuzzy logic. Results: The results showed that southern Europe is highly favourable for our set of African birds, except for Rüppell's Vulture, and future forecasts indicated that this favourability would increase further north, again excluding the African Vulture. Main conclusions: If the climate continues to warm, further arrivals of individuals are to be expected, increasing the possibility that self‐sustaining populations may become established in southern Europe. Furthermore, new African species may start to occupy this area, with the likelihood of an Africanisation of the European fauna. Considering the role played by southern Europe as a potential focal point for the colonisation of this continent by African species, it is important to track their northward expansion and future spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of protected area networks on their capacity to preserve species distributions is a key topic in conservation biology. There are different types of protected areas, with National Parks those with highest level of protection. National Parks can be declared attending to many ecological features that include the presence of certain animal species. Here, we selected 37 vertebrate species that were highlighted as having relevant natural value for at least one of the 10 National Parks of mainland Spain. We modelled species distributions with the favourability function, and applied the Insecurity Index to detect the degree of protection of favourable areas for each species. Two metrics of Insecurity Index were defined for each species: the Insecurity Index in each of the cells, and the Overall Insecurity Index of a species. The former allows the identification of insecure areas for each species that can be used to establish spatial conservation priorities. The latter gives a value of Insecurity for each species, which we used to calculate the Representativeness of favourable areas for the species in the network. As expected, due to the limited extension of the National Park network, all species have high values of Insecurity; i.e., just a narrow proportion of their favourable areas are covered by a National Park. However, the majority of species favourable areas are well represented in the network, i.e., the percentage of favourable areas covered by the National Park network is higher than the percentage of mainland Spain covered by the network (result also supported by a randomization approach). Even if a reserve network only covers a low percentage of a country, the Overall Insecurity Index allows an objective assessment of its capacity to represent species. Beyond the results presented here, the Insecurity Index has the potential to be extrapolated to other areas and to cover a wide range of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distributions are typically represented by records of their observed occurrence at a given spatial and temporal scale. Such records are inevitably incomplete and contingent on the spatial-temporal circumstances under which the observations were made. Moreover, organismsmay respond differently to similar environmental conditions at different places or moments, so their distribution is, in principle, not completely predictable. We argue that this uncertainty exists, and warrants considering species distributions as analogous to coherent quantum objects, whose distributions are better described by a wavefunction rather than by a set of locations. We use this to extend the existing concept of "dark diversity", which incorporates into biodiversity metrics those species that could, but which have not yet been observed to, inhabit a region--thereby developing the idea of "potential biodiversity". We show how conceptualizing species' distributions in this way could help overcome important weaknesses in current biodiversity metrics, both in theory and by using a worked case study of mammal distributions in Spain over the last decade. We propose that considerable theoretical advances could eventually be gained through interdisciplinary collaboration between biogeographers and quantum physicists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological factors driving the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been traditionally analysed from a hydrological point of view, whereas the interplay between atmospheric oscillations and HAB has been scarcely explored. Here we address the possible link between atmospheric oscillations in SW Europe, using as proxies the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices and the interannual variability in HAB. The yearly series (1973–2005) of mortality of water birds and fish in Doñana National Park (SW Spain) due to toxins associated with the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa , and the monthly incidence (January 1999 to December 2007) of the paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin produced by the dinoflagellate Gymnodinium catenatum in the Rías Baixas (NW Spain), were selected as models of HAB in SW Europe. The incidences of both toxic algal events were fitted to a binary logistic regression as a function of the atmospheric oscillation indices (with different delays in accordance with each toxic event) and a favourability function was then computed. The favourability for the wildlife mortality in Doñana National Park was as a function of the AO averaged for the summer period (June–August) whereas the favourability for the incidence of PSP in the Rías Baixas was a function of the NAO recorded 1 month before the event. Since HAB have a relevant impact on ecosystems and human health, there is great interest in deciphering the ecological conditions favouring these events. Here we show that the atmospheric oscillations could be drivers of ecological processes linked to the occurrence of HAB in SW Europe. Moreover, the favourability functions relating NAO and AO indices with algal toxic events in SW Europe could be used as a powerful tool to predict toxic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle - namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area - and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species' distributions under climate and land-use change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the quality of Spanish Cava. We found a significant negative relationship between the mean NAO for the months of March through August of each year between 1970 and 2008 and the probability of obtaining a top quality Cava. The NAO is associated with temperature and rainfall variations in the Cava region, which affect vine physiological processes during grape maturity. The probability of obtaining a top quality Cava was highest when the mean value of the NAO was negative, which causes the mean temperature in the Cava area to decrease, with positive consequences on Cava quality. Although the overall discrimination capacity and explanatory power of the model were low, 80 % of clearly favorable years were classified correctly as corresponding to top quality Cava, and 70 % of clearly unfavorable years were classified correctly as non top quality Cava. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chorotypes—statistically significant groups of coincident distribution areas—constitute biogeographic units that are fuzzy by nature. This quality has been referred to in the literature but has not been analyzed in depth or methodologically developed. The present work redefines chorotypes as fuzzy sets from a pragmatic perspective and basically focuses on the methodological and interpretative implications of this approach. The amphibian fauna in the Iberian Peninsula was used as an example to explore the fuzzy nature of chorotypes. The method on which this article is based is a widely used technique to define chorotypes. This method involves the fuzziness that is inherent to the identification between degree of similarity and degree of membership and includes a probabilistic analysis of the classification for the objective delimitation of chorotypes. The main innovation of this paper is a procedure to analyze chorotypes as fuzzy biogeographic units. A set of fuzzy parameters to deal with the biogeographic interpretation of fuzzy chorotypes is also described. A computer program has been developed and is freely available. History may be related to the degree of fuzziness of chorotypes. In our example, with amphibian distributions in Iberia, less fuzzy chorotypes could have a historical explanation, and the internal fuzziness of chorotypes increases with their distance to hypothetical Pleistocene refugia. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We tested two approaches to forecast species distributions while balancing the impact of climate change against the inertia promoted by other influential factors that have been forecast as not changing. Given that mountain species are presumed to be more at risk due to climate warming, we selected an amphibian, a reptile, a bird, and a mammal species present in the Spanish mountains, to model their distributional response to climate change during this century. The climatic forecasts were made according to the general circulation models CGCM2 and ECHAM4 and to the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. We modelled the response of the species to spatial, topographic, human, and climatic variables separately. In our first approach, we compared each of these single-factor models using the Akaike Information Criterion, and produced a combined model weighting each factor (spatial, topographic, human, and climatic) according to Akaike weights. This procedure overestimated the best model, and the other factors were neglected in the combined model output. In our second approach, we produced a combined model using stepwise selection of the variables previously selected within each factor. In this way every factor was effectively represented in the combined explanatory model of the distributional response of the species to environmental conditions. This enabled the construction of models that combined climate with the other explanatory factors, to be later extrapolated to the future by replacing current climatic and human values with those expected from each emission and socio-economic scenario, while preserving spatial and topographic variables in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The effectiveness of selecting umbrella species or groups of species to protect other groups is a key and unresolved issue in conservation planning. We detected areas important to the four groups of terrestrial vertebrates inhabiting Andalusia (southern Spain) according to four conservation-value criteria, i.e., richness, rarity, vulnerability, and endemicity. We calculated coincidences between criteria and taxa by the degree of correlation and fuzzy overlap between the different criteria for the same group (intra-group coincidence) and between the different groups of species for the same criteria (inter-group coincidence). For the groups to be appropriate umbrella species, inter-group coincidence should be high. The results showed that intra-group coincidence was high, but inter-group coincidence was low. Thus, zones of importance to each group of species tended to be located in different places compared to the other groups, and therefore none of them should be used as an indicator or umbrella group to protect the others. This result has implications for conservation policy, as the Andalusian authorities should not assume that protecting a site important to one group of species will also be relevant to conserve the other groups. Nevertheless, we identified the areas of relatively high conjoint importance for all the groups, and the best umbrella group in this region, which proved to be reptiles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica), an endemic species to the Iberian Peninsula, was represented in the past by four subspecies. Currently, the conservation status of the recognized subspecies –C. p. hispanica and C. p. victoriae – is quite different, being the former broadly distributed while the latter inhabits fewer and smaller areas. In this global context, our specific aims were to assess the biogeographical relationships, similarities and differences between the Iberian wild goat subspecies, and to evaluate their conservation status from a biogeographical perspective. We modelled the ecogeographical favourability for each subspecies, and also for the whole species, and we comparatively analyzed the spatial relationships among models in order to detect differential biogeographical patterns. Our results showed a differential pattern for each Iberian wild goat subspecies, and thus each one should be independently considered when designing management strategies. The distribution of C. p. victoriae was closely related to climatic conditions, thus it is highly sensitive to variations in climatic characteristics. Finally, from the perspective of metapopulation theory, and according to the geographical structure of their favourable areas, C. p. victoriae is at higher risk than C. p. hispanica. We discuss the implications of our results for species/subspecies conservation, and highlight the importance of conservation biogeography. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus ), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra ), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence-absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared the effect of general circulation models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios on the uncertainty associated with models predicting changes in areas favourable to animal species. Given that mountain species are particularly at risk due to climate warming, we selected one amphibian (Baetic midwife toad), one reptile (Lataste's viper), one bird (Bonelli's eagle), and one mammal (Iberian wild goat) present in Spanish mountains to model their distributional response to climate change during this century. Climate forecasts for the whole century were provided by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET; National Meteorological Agency) of Spain, which adapted the general circulation models CGCM2 and ECHAM4 and produced expected temperature and precipitation values for Spain according to the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. We constructed separate models of the species response to spatial, topographic, human, and climate variables using current values of the corresponding variables. We predicted future areas favourable to the species by replacing the current climate values with those expected according to each climate change scenario, while keeping spatial, topographic and human variables constant. Fuzzy logic was used to compute the coincidence between predictions for different emission scenarios in the same global circulation model, and the consistency between predictions for the same emission scenario applying different general circulation models. In general, coincidences were higher than consistencies and, thus, discrepancies between predictions were more attributable to uncertainty in global circulation models, i.e. our insufficient knowledge concerning the effect of the oceans and atmosphere on climate, than to the putative effect of different emission scenarios on future climates. Our conclusion is that species distribution models in climate warming scenarios are still not useful for informing emission policy planning, although they have great potential as tools once consistencies become higher than coincidences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land snails inhabiting the limestone highlands in Cuba are poorly known. From field surveys, traditional collection catalogues, and the literature, we list 136 species, 49 genera and 19 families, 90 % of the species endemic to Cuba; only five species are non-indigenous of the Cuban archipelago. Annulariidae and Urocoptidae are the most represented families, and Chondrothyra and Liocallonia are the genera with the highest number of species. Forty-four species of this list were absent from the consulted collections. We provide 16 new records of species in localities of the region; and 12 species seem to have become locally extinct. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To relate the recent Iberian lynx decline to changes in the distribution of the European rabbit after the haemorrhagic disease outbreak of 1989. As Iberian rabbits evolved in two geographically separated lineages, being the recent lynx range practically restricted to the southwestern lineage, we also test if differential range dynamics exists for these lineages, with the consequent implications for lynx conservation and reintroduction planning. Location The Iberian Peninsula. Methods We modelled environmental favourability for the lynx based on its distribution before 1989, and for the rabbit using distribution data collected primarily after 1989, and validated them using independent abundance data. We compared both models and combined them in a lynx occurrence forecast. We correlated the prevalence of southwestern rabbit lineage with the environmental favourability for the rabbit. Results The environmental lynx model correlated with past lynx abundance data, but did not reflect its recent strong range contraction. The rabbit model correlated with recent rabbit abundance, but was negatively correlated with the environmental model for the lynx. The combination of both models forecasted lynx occurrence in a few separated nuclei, which encompass all recent lynx records. The prevalence of rabbit's southwestern lineage correlated negatively with favourability for the rabbit. Main conclusions The region to which the lynx became confined before 1989 is currently less favourable for rabbits, whereas more favourable areas remain outside lynx reach. This differential favourability correlates with rabbit phylogeographical structure, suggesting that the southwestern lineage is facing more unfavourable conditions or is less resilient to recent diseases. The loss of concordance between lynx distribution and the whole rabbit phylogeographical structure has prevented lynx persistence in northeastern rabbit lineage areas, which should be considered in lynx reintroduction planning. Similar conservation problems could affect other ecologically interacting species whose distributions’ overlapping has sharply diminished. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential. We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain. We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred. We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Aim To deconstruct the biodiversity pattern of the 152 waterbird species breeding in Europe to better understand its multiple causal processes. Location Continental Europe, Iceland and the British Isles. Methods We considered the orders that are typically comprised by swimming, diving or wading birds, which inhabit marshes, fens, peatlands and fresh, brackish or salt waters, including coastal waters. We used the 55 main river basins of Europe as geographical units, and searched for either chorotypes (groups of similar species distributions) or gradual replacement of species throughout the river basins. Chorotypes were recognized by applying a probabilistic classification method to the distributions. Then we used GLM to characterize the extent and the species richness of each chorotype according to energy availability (higher levels of environmental energy favouring the presence of species), climatic stress due to an excess of energy, availability of water, productivity, seasonality and surface area. Results One hundred and forty species significantly aggregate into nine chorotypes. The other 12 species, most of them marine, are centred on Great Britain, dropping away progressively on coasts further away from there. Differences in either the availability of energy or climatic stress significantly characterized the distribution of seven chorotypes comprising 90.8% of the species. Main conclusions Chorotypes are meaningful and useful to deconstruct biodiversity patterns. Our results suggest that energy is the main factor related to the biogeographical patterns of breeding waterbirds in Europe, and provide an insight into regional trends of species richness previously analysed with a habitat-scale perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the existence of chorotypes – assemblages of species with similar geographical ranges – of invasive species in a host territory, and their potential use to advocate similar control or management strategies for species in the same chorotype. We analysed the distribution of 13 exotic terrestrial vertebrate species (six birds, six mammals, and one reptile) with well-known distributions in mainland Spain. We used the presence/absence data on a grid of 10 km × 10 km UTM cells from the Atlases of terrestrial vertebrates of Spain. These data were aggregated to a grid of 50 km × 50 km UTM cells, because it entailed no loss of meaningful information and allowed dealing with a much lower number of cells. Using cluster analysis and a probabilistic assessment of the classification, we identified seven significant chorotypes: four multispecific and three monospecific. The compound chorotypes grouped together species that tended to share certain characteristics about their introduction, release cause, establishment, and spread. We modelled the chorotypes using a favourability function based on a generalized linear model and 31 variables related to spatial situation, topography, lithology, climatic stability, energy availability, water availability, disturbances, productivity, and human activity. Climatic factors affected the favourability for every chorotype, whereas human variables had a high influence in the distribution of three chorotypes involving eight species. On the basis of these variables, we identified favourable areas for all the chorotypes in mainland Spain. The favourability for a chorotype in an area may be a useful criterion for evaluating the local conservation concern due to the whole set of species. Favourable but unoccupied areas can be used to infer possible colonization areas for each chorotype. We recommend using chorotypes to optimize broad-scale surveillance of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we determine favourable areas for the monk parakeet, Myiopsitta monachus, in peninsular Spain to account for its current distribution and predict its future course according to its potential range. We applied a favourability function based on generalized linear models using the presence/absence of breeding colonies of the species and the values of a set of variables on the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km squares comprising the study area. We calculated the factor of distribution change in presences predicted by the model, and grouped the variables into explanatory factors performing a variation partitioning to assess the explanatory power of each factor. Our model included six predictors to explain the presence and absence of the species. These predictors were grouped into three factors: human activity, climate, and topography. Purely human influences accounted for 63.8% of the variation of the final model, while topographical variables explained 15.2% and climate only 5.7%. We obtained a high distribution change factor in which the presences of the species were predicted to increase between two- and sevenfold. Taking into account highly favourable squares, we conclude that the species is still absent in more than 72% of potential settlement areas, and thus we expect a continuous increase in the distribution of the species. Human activity is the main force moulding the distribution of the species, and lies behind its fast expansion, which is not only active, but is also passive via releases and escapes. We identified the areas of likely future expansion of the exotic monk parakeet in Spain. The pest status of the species in its native range, together to its distribution trend, should be taken into account by wildlife agencies to consider options for management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the present paper is to identify the possible existence of groups of species in the genera Audouinella (Rhodophyta), Cystoseira (Phaeophyceae) and Cladophora (Chloropyta) with significantly similar distribution patterns (chorotypes), in the western Mediterranean Sea and the Adriatic Sea. Of the 98 species studied, 59 were grouped into 11 chorotypes, whereas 39 species remained ungrouped. Thirty-eight species were included in a generalist chorotype, whereas 6 chorotypes were monospecific. The relationships with the environmental factors that could explain the chorotypes are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bonelli's eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus, has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli's eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model's predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables — slope, July temperature and precipitation — comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the final model. The reported presences in favourable and unfavourable areas suggest a source–sink dynamics in Bonelli's eagle populations. The fragmented spatial structure of the favourable areas suggests the existence of a superimposed metapopulation dynamics. Previous LIFE (The Financial Instrument of the European Union for the Environment and Nature) projects for the conservation of this species have focused mainly on the northern limit of its range, where the sharpest population decline has been recorded. In these areas, favourability is low and Bonelli's eagle populations are probably maintained by the immigration of juveniles produced in more favourable zones. However, southern populations, although stable, show signs of reduction in productivity, which could menace the population sizes in the whole study area. We suggest that conservation efforts should focus also on known favourable areas, which might favour population persistence in unfavourable areas through dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, the identification of two cryptic Iberian amphibians, Discoglossus galganoi Capula, Nascetti, Lanza, Bullini and Crespo, 1985 and Discoglossus jeanneae Busack, 1986, relies on molecular characterization. To provide a means to discern the distributions of these species, we used 385-base-pair sequences of the cytochrome b gene to identify 54 Spanish populations of Discoglossus. These data and a series of environmental variables were used to build up a logistic regression model capable of probabilistically designating a specimen of Discoglossus found in any Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid cell of 10 km × 10 km to one of the two species. Western longitudes, wide river basins, and semipermeable (mainly siliceous) and sandstone substrates favored the presence of D. galganoi, while eastern longitudes, mountainous areas, severe floodings, and impermeable (mainly clay) or basic (limestone and gypsum) substrates favored D. jeanneae. Fifteen percent of the UTM cells were predicted to be shared by both species, whereas 51% were clearly in favor of D. galganoi and 34% were in favor of D. jeanneae, considering odds of 4:1. These results suggest that these two species have parapatric distributions and allow for preliminary identification of potential secondary contact areas. The method applied here can be generalized and used for other geographic problems posed by cryptic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed the interdependence of avian frugivore- and fruited plant-species richness at the scale of major river basins across Europe, taking into account several environmental factors along different spatial gradients. Continental Europe and the British Isles. We focused on wintering birds and autumn/winter fruiting plants, and used major river basins as geographical units and Structural Equation Modelling as the principal analytical tool. The statistical influence of disperser species richness on fleshy-fruited plant species richness is roughly double that of the reverse. Broad-scale variation in frugivore richness is more dependent on environmental factors than on fruited plant richness. However, the influence of disperser richness on plant richness is four times higher than the influence of environmental factors. Environmental influences on both birds and plants are greater than purely spatial influences. Our results are interpreted as indicating that biotic dispersal of fruits strongly affects broad-scale geographical trends of fleshy-fruited plant species richness, whereas richness of fruited plants moderately affects frugivore richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994–1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10×10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model''s spatial resolution by extrapolating it to 1×1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Aim The partition of the geographical variation in Argentinian terrestrial mammal species richness (SR) into environmentally, human and spatially induced variation. Location Argentina, using the twenty-three administrative provinces as the geographical units. Methods We recorded the number of terrestrial mammal species in each Argentinian province, and the number of species belonging to particular groups (Marsupialia, Placentaria, and among the latter, Xenarthra, Carnivora, Ungulates and Rodentia). We performed multiple regressions of each group's SR on environmental, human and spatial variables, to determine the amounts of variation explained by these factors. We then used a variance partitioning procedure to specify which proportion of the variation in SR is explained by each of the three factors exclusively and which proportions are attributable to interactions between factors. Results For marsupials, human activity explains the greatest part of the variation in SR. The purely environmental and purely human influences on all mammal SR explain a similarly high proportion of the variation in SR, whereas the purely spatial influence accounts for a smaller proportion of it. The exclusive interaction between human activity and space is negative in carnivores and rodents. For rodents, the interaction between environment and spatial situation is also negative. In the remaining placental groups, pure spatial autocorrelation explains a small proportion of the variation in SR. Main conclusions Environmental factors explain most of the variation in placental SR, while Marsupials seem to be mainly affected by human activity. However, for edentates, carnivores, and ungulates the pure human influence is more important than the pure spatial and environmental influences. Besides, human activity disrupts the spatial structure caused by the history and population dynamics of rodents and, to a lesser extent, of carnivores. The historical events and population dynamics... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the geographic ranges of the 23 African hornbill species using countries as distribution units, to search for either groups of similar distributions (chorotypes) or gradual replacement of species as two different types of distribution patterns. We used a probabilistic classification method to distinguish between these two types of biogeographic patterns. Then we analysed the influence of climate, area, surface covered by different types of habitat, and human disturbance in each country, as well as biotic features of the species involving the habitat preference, feeding requirements and habits, body size, sexual dimorphism, and metabolic parameters, on the biogeographic patterns detected. We found that 20 species were significantly classified into three chorotypes. The western-central chorotype comprises nine species characterised by their preference for forest habitat and their Iow sexual body mass dimorphism. These species occur in 25 countries, characterised by their Iow range of temperatures. The eastern chorotype includes three species characterised by their preference for feeding on the ground and greater dimorphism in mass between the sexes. Seven countries, characterised by their high values of savanna and grassland surface area, constitute the geographic element of this chorotype. The southern chorotype involves the distribution of eight species characterised by their preference for montane and coastal forests or woodlands. Eighteen countries fall into this chorotype and are characterised by their Iow values of temperature in the coldest month and greater surface area of desert scrub and desert forest. The other three species replace each other mainly following a gradual pattern within the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables. Results: The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa. Conclusions: We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entropy is intrinsic to the geographical distribution of a biological species. A species distribution with higher entropy involves more uncertainty, i.e., is more gradually constrained by the environment. Species distribution modelling tries to yield models with low uncertainty but normally has to reduce uncertainty by increasing their complexity, which is detrimental for another desirable property of the models, parsimony. By modelling the distribution of 18 vertebrate species in mainland Spain, we show that entropy may be computed along the forward-backwards stepwise selection of variables in Logistic Regression Models to check whether uncertainty is reduced at each step. In general, a reduction of entropy was produced asymptotically at each step of the model. This asymptote could be used to distinguish the entropy attributable to the species distribution from that attributable to model misspecification. We discussed the use of fuzzy entropy for this end because it produces results that are commensurable between species and study areas. Using a stepwise approach and fuzzy entropy may be helpful to counterbalance the uncertainty and the complexity of the models. The model yielded at the step with the lowest fuzzy entropy combines the reduction of uncertainty with parsimony, which results in high efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060–2080. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep-habitat cetaceans are generally difficult to study, leading to a limited knowledge of their population. This paper assesses the differential distribution patterns of three deep-habitat cetaceans (Sperm whale—Physeter macrocephalus, Risso's dolphin—Grampus griseus & Cuvier's beaked whale—Ziphius cavirostris). We used data of 842 opportunistic sightings of cetaceans in the western Mediterranean sea. We inferred environmental and spatio-temporal factors that affect their distribution. Binary logistic regression models were generated to compare the presence of deep-habitat cetaceans with the presence of other cetacean species in the dataset. Then, the favourability function was applied, allowing for comparison between all the models. Sperm whale and Risso's dolphin presence was differentially favoured by the distance to towns in the eastern part of the western Mediterranean sea. The differential distribution of sperm whale was also influenced by the stability of SST, and that of the Risso's dolphin by lower mean salinity and higher mean Chlorophyll A concentration. When modelling the three deep-habitat cetaceans (including Cuvier's beaked whale), the variable distance to towns had a negative influence on the presence of any of them more than it did to other cetaceans, being more favourable far from towns, so this issue should be further investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally widespread arthropod‐borne virus that poses a significant public health concern. Mosquitoes transmit the virus in an enzootic cycle among birds, which act as reservoirs. Climate plays a crucial role in these outbreaks as mosquitoes are highly influenced by climatic conditions, and bird migrations are also affected by weather patterns. Consequently, changes in climate can potentially impact the occurrence of WNV outbreaks. We used biogeographic modelling based on machine learning algorithms and fuzzy logic to analyse and evaluate separately the risk of WNV outbreaks in two different biogeographic regions, the Afrotropical and the Western Palaearctic region. By employing fuzzy logic tools, we constructed a comprehensive risk model that integrates the Afro‐Palaearctic system as a unified operational unit for WNV spread. This innovative approach recognizes the Afro‐Palaearctic region as a pathogeographic system, characterized by biannual connections facilitated by billions of migratory bird reservoirs carrying the disease. Subsequently, we forecasted the effects of different climate change scenarios on the spread of WNV in the Afro‐Palaearctic system for the years 2040 and 2070. Our findings revealed an increasing epidemic and epizootic risk south of the Sahara. However, the area where an upsurge in risk was forecasted the most lies within Europe, with the anticipation of risk expansion into regions presently situated beyond the virus' distribution range, including central and northern Europe. Gaining insight into the risk within the Afro‐Palaearctic system is crucial for establishing coordinated and international One Health surveillance efforts. This becomes particularly relevant in the face of ongoing climate change, which disrupts the ecological equilibrium among vectors, reservoirs, and human populations. We show that the application of biogeographical tools to assess risk of infectious disease, i.e. pathogeography, is a promising approach for understanding distribution patterns of zoonotic diseases and for anticipating their future spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue and yellow fever have complex cycles, involving urban and sylvatic mosquitoes, and non‐human primate hosts. To date, efforts to assess the effect of climate change on these diseases have neglected the combination of such crucial factors. Recent studies only considered urban vectors. This is the first study to include them together with sylvatic vectors and the distribution of primates to analyse the effect of climate change on these diseases. We used previously published models, based on machine learning algorithms and fuzzy logic, to identify areas where climatic favourability for the relevant transmission agents could change: 1) favourable areas for the circulation of the viruses due to the environment and to non‐human primate distributions; 2) the favourability for urban and sylvatic vectors. We obtained projections of future transmission risk for two future periods and for each disease, and implemented uncertainty analyses to test for predictions reliability. Areas currently favourable for both diseases could keep being climatically favourable, while global favourability could increase a 7% for yellow fever and a 10% increase for dengue. Areas likely to be more affected in the future for dengue include West Africa, South Asia, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and the Amazon basin. A possible spread of dengue could take place into Europe, the Mediterranean basin, the UK and Portugal; and, in Asia, into northern China. For yellow fever, climate could become more favourable in Central and Southeast Africa; India; and in north and southeast South America, including Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela. In Brazil, favourability for yellow fever will probably increase in the south, the west and the east. Areas where the transmission risk spread is consistent to the dispersal of vectors are highlighted in respect of areas where the expected spread is directly attributable to environmental changes. Both scenarios could involve different prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus infections in humans are continuously increasing, and the virus has spread considerably in Europe over the past decade. The incidence of the disease was unusually high between 2018 and 2020. The resulting model identifies the West Nile virus outbreak‐prone areas during 2021, even in regions where the virus has not yet been discovered. It is remarkable that in Central Europe, new favourable areas are emerging, where early actions could lessen the impact of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from non-human primates in tropical forest cycles is being underestimated. We investigate the fine-scale geographic changes in transmission risk since the late 20th century, and take into account for the first time the potential role that primate biogeography and sylvatic vectors play in increasing the disease transmission risk. We apply a biogeographic framework to the most recent global dataset of dengue cases. Temporally stratified models describing favorable areas for vector presence and for disease transmission are combined. Our models were validated for predictive capacity, and point to a significant broadening of vector presence in tropical and non-tropical areas globally. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in China, Papua New Guinea, Australia, USA, Colombia, Venezuela, Madagascar, as well as to cities in Europe and Japan. These models also suggest that dengue transmission is likely to spread to regions where there are presently no or very few reports of occurrence. According to our results, sylvatic dengue cycles account for a small percentage of the global extent of the human case record, but could be increasing in relevance in Asia, Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of factors favoring transmission risk in different regions of the world allows for distinct management strategies to be prepared. Author summary: The rate of disease emergence is increasing globally, and many long-existing diseases are extending their distribution ranges. This is the case for dengue, a global pandemic whose mosquito vectors are currently occupying ever-increasing numbers of regions worldwide. We updated the most complete global dataset of dengue cases available, and addressed the fine-scale analysis of the geographic changes experienced in dengue-transmission risk since the late 20th century. Our approach is the first to take into account the potential role of primates and sylvatic vectors in increasing the disease transmission risk in tropical forests. We built models that describe the favorable areas for vector presence and for disease occurrence, and combined them in order to obtain a novel model for predicting transmission risk. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in Asia, Africa, North and South America, and Oceania, and to regions with presently no or very few cases, including cities in Europe and Japan. The global contribution of sylvatic dengue cycles is small but meaningful. Our methodological approach can differentiate the factors favoring risk in different world regions, thus allowing for management strategies to be prepared specifically for each of these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important large-scale climatic oscillation affecting the North Atlantic region. The variability introduced by the NAO affects many meteorological parameters, including wind speed and direction, and differences in air temperature and rainfall, particularly during the boreal winter. The NAO is also known to affect the ocean by changing heat content, sea surface temperature, gyre circulation, mixed layer depth, salinity, high-latitude deep water formation, and sea ice cover. Consequently, the NAO has been widely used to analyze the variability of marine ecosystems. Several researchers found that fishery resources were teleconnected with the NAO variability, resulting in a significant relationship between this climatic oscillation and fishery yields. More precisely, the NAO affects the target species abundance, recruitment, catchability, and body condition. These effects can be cumulative over time and act synergistically. In this study, the available information about this topic is reviewed, and the importance of the NAO as a large-scale climatic oscillation in fisheries management is discussed using an ecosystem approach. We also discuss the possible effects of climate change on Atlantic and Mediterranean fisheries if this change were to affect the NAO pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: As parapatric distributions are traditionally studied by pairs of species, this study aims to evaluate the causes of the maintenance of parapatry, specifically to assess whether the case of the three viper species present in the Iberian Peninsula is mainly caused by environmental conditions, historical events, interspecific competition among them, or a combination of these factors. Location: The Iberian Peninsula. Taxon: Vipera aspis, V. latastei and V. seoanei.. Methods: We applied the concept of favourability of occurrence to produce commensurate distribution units unaffected by the prevalence of different species in the Iberian Peninsula. We compared the favourability of each species individually with the favourability of occurrence of more than one species co‐occurring in their overlapping ranges, and identified the areas in which sympatric coexistence, environmental segregation and competitive exclusion are predicted to occur. Results: The main driver of the parapatric pattern was competitive exclusion, which was mediated by gradual changes in the environmental conditions favouring each species. The para‐Mediterranean V. aspis presented fragmented favourable areas outside its range that seemed to be unoccupied due to competitive exclusion by the other vipers. The Mediterranean V. latastei appeared to be limited by competition with the other viper species and by the environment in north‐western Iberia. V. seoanei prevented the other two species becoming established in the north‐western quarter of the Iberian Peninsula due to its better adaption to the humid conditions in this region. Some areas of sustainable coexistence were detected, mainly in the upper reaches of the River Ebro. Main conclusions: Each species is better adapted to particular conditions. However, the existence of ecotones forces them to occur sympatrically and compete for resources. The parapatric pattern is a result of the evolutionary history of the species and of strong competitive interactions between them, which form 'competitive‐exclusion barriers'. However, these barriers are environmentally dependent, so changes in the environment could rapidly affect the limits of the species distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Sample size and species characteristics, including prevalence and habitat specialization, can influence the predictive performance of species distribution models (SDMs). There is little agreement, however, on which metric of model performance to use. Here, we directly compare AUC and partial ROC as metrics of SDM performance through analyses on the effects of species traits and sample size on SDM performance. Location: Three counties dominated by agricultural lands and coniferous forest in Oregon's Willamette Valley and Coast Range ecoregions. Methods: We systematically reduced a large avian point count dataset to alter sample sizes of 22 species of songbird. We used boosted regression trees to run SDMs for each species, quantified habitat specialization, and used mixed effects models to compare the influence of sample size, prevalence, and habitat specialization on SDM performance, calculated as AUC and partial ROC, across species. We calculated AUC and partial ROC with subset and independent evaluation data separately to more comprehensively investigate differences in metrics. Results: We found a positive quadratic effect of sample size and a strongly positive effect of habitat specialization on both metrics of model performance. We found a weak effect of prevalence on partial ROC and no effect in AUC. Contrary to expectations, when evaluated with a subset evaluation data, partial ROC was consistently highest in models with the smallest sample sizes. These small sample size models had correspondingly small sample sizes in subset evaluation datasets. Partial ROC evaluated with independent data and AUC evaluated with subset or independent data showed the expected positive correlation between sample size and model performance. Main Conclusions: We found that small evaluation datasets can artificially inflate partial ROC. With literature recommended minimum SDM sample sizes as low as three, attention must be given to the effects of correspondingly low sample sizes in evaluation datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several decades, there have been changes in the distance of bird migration. The Eurasian Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus is a Trans-Saharan migratory species, which, as recent records suggest, is increasingly wintering in the Iberian Peninsula. This study investigated the strength of the influence of climate on the wintering of this insectivorous species in the Iberian Peninsula, and also used geospatial modelling to identify the most favourable areas. The model was constructed to identify the most relevant explanatory factors of this distribution and it was assessed by applying calibration and discrimination criteria, and the influence of each factor was analysed using variation partitioning. Theminimum winter temperature is themost relevant factor affecting sites suitable for the wintering of this species in Europe. The best areas are located in the southern and eastern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula and in some locations on the northern Atlantic coast of Spain. Spatial trends analysis corroborated the orientation of the flight paths of the species from their breeding areas to their wintering areas. To pography refined the model in that it is associated with habitat selection at a fine-scale. As the case of the Eurasian Reed Warbler is not unique, the results show the role of the Iberian Peninsula as a new wintering site for species usually wintering in the Sub-Saharan region, modifying their wintering strategy from Trans-Saharan to Pre-Saharanmigrants, and whether the recent increase in temperature is the main cause. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Experts use knowledge to infer the distribution of species based on fuzzy logical assumptions about the relationship between species and the environment. Thus, expert knowledge is amenable to fuzzy logic modelling, which give to propositions a continuous truth value between 0 and 1. In species distribution modelling, fuzzy logic may also be used to model, from a number of records, the degree to which conditions are favourable to the occurrence of a species. Therefore, fuzzy logic operations can be used to compare and combine models based on expert knowledge and species records. Here, we applied fuzzy logic modelling to the distribution of amphibians in Uruguay as inferred from expert knowledge and from observed records to infer favourable locations, with favourability being the commensurable unit for both kinds of data sources. We compared the results for threatened species, species considered by experts to be ubiquitous, and non-threatened, non-ubiquitous species. We calculated the fuzzy intersection of models based on both knowledge sources to obtain a unified prediction of favourable locations. Results: Models based on expert knowledge involved a larger number of variables and were less affected by sampling bias. Models based on experts had the same overprediction rate for the three types of species, whereas models based on species records had a lower prediction rate for ubiquitous species. Models based on expert knowledge performed equally as well or better than corresponding models based on species records for threatened species, even when they had to discriminate and classify the same set of records used to build the models based on species records. For threatened species, expert models predicted more restrictive favourable territories than those predicted based on records. Observed records generated the best-fitted models for non-threatened non-ubiquitous species, and ubiquitous species. Conclusions: Fuzzy modelling permitted the objective comparison of the potential of expert knowledge and incomplete distribution records to infer the territories favourable for different species. Distribution of threatened species was able to be better explained by subjective expert knowledge, while for generalist species models based on observed data were more accurate. These results have implications for the correct use of expert knowledge in conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed species richness (OSR) is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric. However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant. Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined: potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness—PSR) and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF). We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015), using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km2 grid. PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area. For each park and for the whole network, we calculated the mean and sum of OSR, PSR, and GMF in each time period, as well as changes between periods. OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus, although the network covers a very small proportion of the country, it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas. However, mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network, whereas the opposite was the case outside the network. Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002, although the reduction was moderate to low. This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Northern Alboran Sea, artisanal small-scale fisheries using trammel nets suffer economic losses, and local fishermen see their way-of-life endangered, due to interactions with wildlife species such as alien species and dolphins. On the one hand, the alien seaweed Rugulopteryx okamurae, which was first recorded in the Alboran Sea in 2015, has undergone an intensive expansion in the sub-region, monopolizing the available seabed, causing radical changes in the underwater seascape and clogging the trammel nets. On the other hand, the damage caused to the fishing nets by dolphin fish predation is an ancient problem worldwide, but it is intensifying in the last years. The main objective of this study is to understand the main environmental and technical conditions that favor damages of fishing trammel nets in the Alboran Sea, which entails an important loss of catchability, due to (i) the clogging of the artisanal fishing trammel nets by invasive seaweed, and (ii) the breaking of the nets by dolphin predation. Through close monitoring of fishermen in port, we obtained direct information of 548 sets. Our results indicate that approximately 30% of trammel sets suffered a damage due to unwanted interaction with alien seaweeds and dolphins. As seaweeds invasion is a global problem while dolphin-fishing gear interaction is more local, we concluded that only a large-scale management of exotic algae, together with the involvement of local fishermen, could solve the economic problems of this activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a contagious, severe and often lethal form of hemorrhagic fever in humans. The association of EVD outbreaks with forest clearance has been suggested previously but many aspects remained uncharacterized. We used remote sensing techniques to investigate the association between deforestation in time and space, with EVD outbreaks in Central and West Africa. Favorability modeling, centered on 27 EVD outbreak sites and 280 comparable control sites, revealed that outbreaks located along the limits of the rainforest biome were significantly associated with forest losses within the previous 2 years. This association was strongest for closed forests (>83%), both intact and disturbed, of a range of tree heights (5–>19 m). Our results suggest that the increased probability of an EVD outbreak occurring in a site is linked to recent deforestation events, and that preventing the loss of forests could reduce the likelihood of future outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are basic tools in ecology, biogeography, and biodiversity. The usefulness of SDMs has expanded beyond the realm of ecological sciences, and their application in other research areas is currently frequent, e.g., spatial epidemiology. In any research area, the principal interest in these models resides in their capacity to predict species response in new scenarios, i.e., the models' transferability. Although the transferability of SDMs has been the subject of interest for many years, only in the 2000s did this topic gain particular attention. This article reviews the concept of the transferability of SDMs to new spatial scenarios, temporal periods, and (or) spatial resolutions, along with the potential constraints of the model's transferability, and more specifically: ( i) the type of predictors and multicollinearity, ( ii) the model complexity, and ( iii) the species' intrinsic traits. Finally, we describe a practicable analytical protocol to be assessed before transferring a model to a new scenario. This protocol is based on three fundamental pillars: the environmental equilibrium of the species with the environment, the environmental similarity between the new scenario, and the areas used to model parametrisation and the correlation structure among predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ebola virus is responsible for the fatal Ebola virus disease ( EVD)., Identifying the distribution area of the Ebola virus is crucial for understanding the risk factors conditioning the emergence of new EVD cases. Existing distribution models have underrepresented the potential contribution that reservoir species and vulnerable species make in sustaining the presence of the virus., In this paper, we map favourable areas for Ebola virus in Africa according to environmental and zoogeographical descriptors, independent of human-to-human transmissions. We combine two different biogeographical approaches: analysis of mammalian distribution types (chorotypes), and distribution modelling of the Ebola virus., We first obtain a model defining the distribution of environmentally favourable areas for the presence of Ebola virus. Based on a review of mammal taxa affected by or suspected of exposure to the Ebola virus, we model favourable areas again, this time according to mammalian chorotypes. We then build a combined model in which both the environment and mammalian distributions explain the favourable areas for Ebola virus in the wild., We demonstrate that mammalian biogeography contributes to explaining the distribution of Ebola virus in Africa, although vegetation may also underscore clear limits to the presence of the virus. Our model suggests that the Ebola virus may be even more widespread than previously suspected, given that additional favourable areas are found throughout the coastal areas of West and Central Africa, stretching from Cameroon to Guinea, and extend further East into the East African Lakes region., Our findings show that the most favourable area for the Ebola virus is significantly associated with the presence of the virus in non-human mammals. Core areas are surrounded by regions of intermediate favourability, in which human infections of unknown source were found. The difference in association between humans and other mammals and the virus may offer further insights on how EVD can spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]