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Climate change is leading to alterations in the dynamic and thermodynamic climate systems worldwide, including the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which supports more than a billion population and drives the Indian economy. The anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented transformations in the natural and ecological systems, such as the increased probability of precipitation extremes, changes in their frequency, duration and spatial variabilities. This current study aims to project the regional landscape‐based metric, velocity of climate change (VoCC) and associated climatic exposure regarding precipitation extremes (PEs) for India and its different biogeographic zones. The climate velocities of mean precipitation, 95th, 99.5th and 99.9th percentiles of precipitation for the ISM season are presented for the historical and three projected time slices under the RCP8.5 scenario. ROM, a state‐of‐the‐art regional earth system model over the CORDEX‐South Asia domain, was used in the study. It was observed that the intense and very intense rainfall (95th, 99.5th and 99.9th percentiles) was enhanced over most of the study region in the near‐ and mid‐future compared to the far‐future. The intense rainfall exhibited higher climate velocity than the mean and very intense precipitation in the near‐future. The southern part of the Indian subcontinent usually displayed positive VoCC values for the historical and near‐future time slices compared to the northern part of the Indian peninsula, particularly the intense and very intense precipitation. The climatic exposure for all‐India was also higher in the near‐ and mid‐future compared to the far‐future, especially for the intense rainfall followed by the mean and very intense rainfall. These results suggest the need for focusing the adaptation and mitigation measures towards managing the near‐term impacts of PEs in relation to the long‐term impacts, especially on the country's diverse flora. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light transmission through a multimode fiber (MMF) has gained major importance for imaging and manipulation. The majority of phase retrieval algorithms used for a MMF implicitly assume light propagation to be described by a unitary operation, yet the transmission matrix of a multimode fiber is inherently non‐unitary. It is demonstrated that this erroneous assumption can impede the performance of many commonly used MMF phase retrieval algorithms and demonstrate that the weighted Yang–Gu algorithm outperforms other phase retrieval algorithms in this scenario. Once accounted for, the non‐unitary property of the transmission matrix can be leveraged to generate intricate intensity and phase patterns at the output of the fiber, and shape specific output fields. This is experimentally demonstrated by generating Laguerre–Gaussian beams that carry orbital angular momentum, and by forming images in planes offset from the distal end of the fiber facet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Precipitation changes dynamically in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, the projection of future precipitation and its historical distribution mechanism is essential for climate mitigation and adaptation. In this study, a stepwise clustered precipitation downscaling method (SCPD) was developed and adopted in the Mediterranean region to reveal the inherent variation rules and trends over the future 100 years under two SSP scenarios. A cutting and merging multivariate process is introduced to build a cluster tree for supporting further downscaling and projecting steps. The ensemble average from the global climate model (GCM) dataset is used for precipitation projections. The precipitation performance of SCPD, evaluated by R2, is fairly decent. The precipitation projections vary with the original rainfall patterns over the gauge stations. Dry places tend to become comparably drier in the future. Precipitation in the northern Mediterranean region shows a drier winter–spring and wetter summer–autumn. Opposite trends emerged in the southern part, with increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer rainfall. The rising carbon dioxide concentration will further intensify the decrease in rainfall. However, the centres of these two EOFs are not identical. The contributions of NAO (positive) and Niño 3.4 (negative) to PC1 are relatively high. Accordingly, the strongest positive correlation with PC2 is SCAND, as well as negative correlations with AO, NAO and EAWR. Positive anomaly precipitation is attributed to PC1, whereas PC2 is responsible for most of the negative variance precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose and study two new methods based on the golden ratio technique for approximating solutions to variational inequality problems in Hilbert space. The first method combines the golden ratio technique with the subgradient extragradient method. In the second method, we incorporate the alternating golden ratio technique into the subgradient extragradient method. Both methods use self-adaptive step sizes which are allowed to increase during the execution of the algorithms, thus limiting the dependence of our methods on the starting point of the scaling parameter. We prove that under appropriate conditions, the resulting methods converge either weakly or R-linearly to a solution of the variational inequality problem associated with a pseudomonotone operator. In order to show the numerical advantage of our methods, we first present the results of several pertinent numerical experiments and then compare the performance of our proposed methods with that of some existing methods which can be found in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the process of construction, pouring and vibrating concrete on existing reinforced structures is a necessary process. This paper presents an automatic vibration position detecting method based on the feature extraction of 3D lidar point clouds. Compared with the image-based method, this method has better anti-interference performance to light with reduced computational consumption. First, lidar scans are used to capture multiple frames of local steel bar point clouds. Then, the clouds are stitched by Normal Distribution Transform (NDT) for preliminary matching and Iterative Closest Point (ICP) for fine-matching. The Graph-Based Optimization (g2o) method further refines the precision of the 3D registration. Afterwards, the 3D point clouds are projected into a 2D image. Finally, the locations of concrete vibration points and concrete casting points are discerned through point cloud and image processing technologies. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed automatic method outperforms ICP and NDT algorithms, reducing the mean square error (MSE) by 11.5% and 11.37%, respectively. The maximum discrepancies in identifying concrete vibration points and concrete casting points are 0.059 ± 0.031 m and 0.089 ± 0.0493 m, respectively, fulfilling the requirement for concrete vibration detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels. Methods: Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored. Results: In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p < 0.05), and ASMR and ASDR were significantly negatively correlated with SDI (p < 0.001). High BMI is a risk factor affecting the mortality rate and DALYs of UC in both China and globally, with the increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI being greater in China than globally. Conclusion: The incidence and prevalence burden of UC among Chinese and global women have shown an increasing trend over the past 32 years, while the mortality and DALYs have decreased. The projected burden of UC in China is anticipated to continue rising at a higher rate than the global level over the next 15 years. Given the large population in China, the government needs to strengthen screening and prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of UC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a unified model for layered rotating shallow‐water (RSW) and quasi‐geostrophic (QG) equations, based on the intrinsic relationship between these two sets of equations. We propose a novel formulation of the QG equations as a projection of the RSW equations. This formulation uses the same prognostic variables as RSW, namely velocity and layer thickness, thereby restoring the proximity of these two sets of equations. It provides direct access to the ageostrophic velocities embedded within the geostrophic velocities resolved by the QG equations. This approach facilitates the study of differences between QG and RSW using a consistent numerical discretization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this formulation through examples including vortex shear instability, double‐gyre circulation, and a simplified North Atlantic configuration. Plain Language Summary: In this paper, we present a straightforward way to connect two important sets of ocean equations: the layered rotating shallow‐water (RSW) equations and the quasi‐geostrophic (QG) equations. We consider a unified method to formulate the QG equations as a projection of the RSW equations. This method uses the same variables as the RSW equations, making it easier to understand how these two sets of equations relate to each other. Our approach also provides direct access to important velocity information that is usually hidden in the QG equations. This allows us to study the differences between the QG and RSW equations using the same numerical techniques. We show the benefits of our model with two examples: a vortex shear instability and a double‐gyre configuration. This work provides a useful tool for the understanding of ocean dynamics. Developing a unified numerical framework for nested models can greatly simplify oceanographic modeling and enhance accuracy. Key Points: Introduces QG equations as a projection of rotating shallow‐water (RSW) equations using the same prognostic variablesAllows consistent nested numerical methods for both QG and RSW equationsSuccessfully tested on vortex shear instability, double‐gyre circulation, and a simplified North Atlantic configuration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections' (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 models' performance in simulating extreme climate indices across China and its eight subregions for the period 2081–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The models effectively reproduce the spatial patterns of extreme high temperatures, especially in northern China. They show enhanced capabilities in accurately simulating the maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the number of high temperature days (T35). They improve the cold bias of the TXx index in Northwest China and warm bias in South China. In terms of precipitation, the models demonstrate strong performance, evidenced by significant spatial correlations in total wet day precipitation (PTOT) simulations. They reduce the biases of PTOT and simple daily intensity (SDII) compared to CMIP6 models. Regionally, they enhance PTOT accuracy along southern coasts and in Yunnan, better captures very heavy precipitation days (R20) in the Southwest region, max 5-day precipitation (RX5D) in North China and Southwest region, and SDII in the Northeast region and Yunnan. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, significant impacts include increased TXx in Northwest China, more heatwave days in Southwest China, and more T35 in South China. Extreme precipitation will become more frequent in South and East China, with the greatest intensity increases in Southwest China (SWC1). North China will see fewest consecutive dry days (CDD) indices, while consecutive wet days (CWD) will prominently rise in SWC1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National responses should be improved and accelerated to meet the target of ending the Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic by 2030. In the Republic of Cyprus, Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), accounting approximately for half of all annual HIV diagnoses. This study assesses the evolution of HIV incidence in MSM in Cyprus until 2030 using a model calibrated to Cypriot epidemiological data. Four scenarios were examined: status quo, two scenarios focusing on introducing Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), and a 90% HIV incidence reduction scenario. Reaching only the 95-95-95 HIV cascade of care targets among MSM would reduce HIV incidence by 48.6% by 2030 compared to 2015. Initiating a PrEP intervention only for high risk MSM would cause a modest further reduction in HIV incidence. To meet the 90% reduction target, PrEP should be expanded to both high and medium risk MSM and, after 2025, behavioral interventions should be implemented so as high-risk MSM gradually move to the medium-risk category. Cyprus will not reach the HIV incidence reduction target by 2030 unless PrEP is gradually promoted and delivered to all high and medium risk MSM along with awareness and behavioral interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network analysis has become a crucial tool in genetic research, enabling the exploration of associations between genes and diseases. Its utility extends beyond genetics to include the assessment of environmental factors. Unipartite network analysis is commonly used in genomics to visualize initial insights and relationships among variables. Syndromic diseases, such as metabolic syndrome, are characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of various signs, symptoms, and clinicopathological features. Metabolic syndrome encompasses hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and dyslipidemia, and both genetic and environmental factors contribute to its development. Given that relevant data often consist of distinct sets of variables, a more intuitive visualization method is needed. This study applied multipartite network analysis as an effective method to understand the associations among genetic, environmental, and disease components in syndromic diseases. We considered three distinct variable sets: genetic factors, environmental factors, and disease components. The process involved projecting a tripartite network onto a two-mode bipartite network and then simplifying it into a one-mode network. This approach facilitated the visualization of relationships among factors across different sets and within individual sets. To transition from multipartite to unipartite networks, we suggest both sequential and concurrent projection methods. Data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project were utilized, including 352,228 SNPs from 8840 individuals, alongside information on environmental factors such as lifestyle, dietary, and socioeconomic factors. The single-SNP analysis step filtered SNPs, supplemented by reference SNPs reported in a genome-wide association study catalog. The resulting network patterns differed significantly by sex: demographic factors and fat intake were crucial for women, while alcohol consumption was central for men. Indirect relationships were identified through projected bipartite networks, revealing that SNPs such as rs4244457, rs2156552, and rs10899345 had lifestyle interactions on metabolic components. Our approach offers several advantages: it simplifies the visualization of complex relationships among different datasets, identifies environmental interactions, and provides insights into SNP clusters sharing common environmental factors and metabolic components. This framework provides a comprehensive approach to elucidate the mechanisms underlying complex diseases like metabolic syndrome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We are concerned in this paper with the convergence analysis of the primal-dual splitting (PDS) and the split Douglas-Rachford (SDR) algorithms for monotone inclusions by using an operator-oriented approach. We shall show that both PDS and SDR algorithms can be driven by a (firmly) nonexpansive mapping in a product Hilbert space. We are then able to apply the Krasnoselskii-Mann and Halpern fixed point algorithms to PDS and SDR to get weakly and strongly convergent algorithms for finding solutions of the primal and dual monotone inclusions. Moreover, an additional projection technique is used to derive strong convergence of a modified SDR algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 of neck pain burden, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and age-standardized years lived with disability (YLDs) rates at the global, regional, and national levels. The age–period–cohort analysis was used to estimate the effects of age (5-99 years), period (1990-2019), and cohort (1893-2012) at the global, regional, and national levels. Future projections for the global burden of neck pain from 2020 to 2044 were estimated using the nordpred age–period–cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence, prevalence cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain have increased by 71.89%, 98.21%, and 78.17%, respectively. The joinpoint analysis indicated significant shifts in the global trends of age-standardized neck pain burden, which varied across regions and nations. The age–period–cohort model indicated that the neck pain burden was predominantly concentrated in middle-aged and older age, with period and cohort effects showing minimal variation from 1990 to 2019. Compared with 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain were projected to increase by 134%, 142%, and 140% by 2044. The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Future research is urgently needed to better understand the predictors and clinical course of neck pain and to enhance prevention and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an augmented reality paradigm, spatial augmented reality (SAR) holds significant application value in assembly operations. However, in the current research, the camera is fixed with the projector, which results in the limited projection angle and poor flexibility. This makes it difficult to be applied in the assembly of cabin-type components in the aviation industry. In this paper, we present an externally-guided spatial augmented reality (EGSAR) system which allows the projector to move freely. First, the proposed system framework, especially the related transformation, is introduced. Under this framework, the implication has been simplified into pose measurement problem. Meanwhile, to track the moving projector, a dodecahedron transfer position target is designed. Due to the EGSAR being a combined system, then, we propose a calibration process for the target, which eliminates the manufacturing errors of the target. Based on the calibrated cameras, projector, and target, the pose measurement problem has been solved. The proposed EGSAR method is experimented in a factory-like scenario, where an operator performs assembly tasks under its guidance. The feasibility and accuracy of the prototype are verified. In conclusion, the proposed EGSAR framework improves the flexibility and can be a valid solution to extend the uses of the SAR system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spring consecutive rainfall events (CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6, indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The septocolumellar sutures are very helpful to obtain planned rotation and projection. The goal of this study is to revitalize the septocolumellar techniques described before and present an easy new classification for these sutures, and to present their multiple uses on the same patient as a new option for surgeons. Eighty patients were involved in this retrospective study. All the patients were females except one. A detailed preoperative preparation was performed on all patients by following the principles of precision profileplasty. In this study, five main types of septocolumellar sutures were used. Type 4 septocolumellar suture was used in 39 cases, type 3 in 33, type 2 in 22, type 1 in 5, and type 5 in 2 cases. In 21 cases, more than one suture was used. In conclusion, the new practical classification presented in this study gives the surgeon powerful tools to reshape the tip during surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geproci property is a recent development in the world of geometry. We call a set of points Z\subseteq \mathbb {P}_k^3 an (a,b)-geproci set (for GEneral PROjection is a Complete Intersection) if its projection from a general point P to a plane is a complete intersection of curves of degrees a\leq b. Nondegenerate examples known as grids have been known since 2011. Nondegenerate nongrids were first described in 2018, working in characteristic 0. Almost all of these new examples are of a special kind called half grids. In this paper, based partly on the author's thesis, we use a feature of geometry in positive characteristic to give new methods of producing geproci half grids and non-half grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim is to estimate age- and sex-specific direct medical costs related to diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. Methods: Based on nationwide representative epidemiological routine data from 2010 from the statutory health insurance in Germany (almost 80% of the population's insurance) we projected age- and sex-specific healthcare expenses for type 1 and 2 diabetes considering future demographic, disease-specific and cost trends. We combine per capita healthcare cost data (obtained from aggregated claims data from an almost 7% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance) together with the demographic structure of the German population (obtained from the Federal Statictical Office), diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality. Direct per capita costs, total annual costs, cost ratios for people with versus without diabetes and attributable costs were estimated. The source code for running the analysis is publicly available in the open-access repository Zenodo. Results: In 2010, total healthcare costs amounted to more than €1 billion for type 1 and €28 billion for type 2 diabetes. Depending on the scenario, total annual expenses were projected to rise remarkably until 2040 compared to 2010, by 1–281% for type 1 (€1 to €4 billion) and by 8–364% for type 2 diabetes (€30 to €131 billion). In a relatively probable scenario total costs amount to about €2 and €79 billion for type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2040, respectively. Depending on annual cost growth (1% p.a. as realistic scenario vs. 5% p.a. as very extreme setting), we estimated annual per capita costs of €6,581 to €12,057 for type 1 and €5,245 to €8,999 for type 2 diabetes in 2040. Conclusions: Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on Germany which is projected to increase substantially until 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence and cost growth are main drivers of this increase. This highlight the need for urgent action to prepare for the potential development and mitigate its consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Smoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis. Methods: In this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods. Results: An increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model). Conclusion: Projecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years. Key messages: • The most accurate prediction of five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years after initial exposure to cigarette smoke. • A more advanced model can potentially be leveraged to project the epidemiological indices of other non-communicable diseases that have a highly attributable risk factor, adequate information on previous trends, and a range of latent periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gansu Province is located in an ecologically fragile area, with complex climate conditions, high probability and wide range of drought. In order to better study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought in Gansu Province, it was divided into four cli- mate zones according to the climate type and geographical characteristics and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI- 3 and SPEI-12) at quarterly and annual scales for the next 76 years (2024-2099) were calculated. Under the four scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, Mann Kendall mutation test, spatial interpolation and other methods were used to estimate the temperature, precipitation, and drought evolution status of Gansu Province in the future 80 in the CMIP6 climate model. The main conclusion is as follows: In the CMIP6 model, the temperature and precipitation in different regions of Gansu Province in the future from 2024 to 2099 show an upward trend over time under different scenarios and the climate tendency rate of temperature and precipitation under different scenarios is from small to large as SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. Under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios in the CMIP6 model, Gansu Province will show the development trend of drought in spring, summer and autumn in the coming 2024 to 2099. The mutation years from humid to arid are concentrated between 2040 and 2060. In winter, there is a trend of wetting, with a sudden change from drought to humidification in the SSP121 scenario occurring in 2033, and other scenarios occurring between 2040 and 2060. The frequency of different types of drought is different between different scenarios. Light drought and extreme drought have the highest frequency under the SSP370 scenario, moderate drought has the highest frequency under the SSP245 scenario, and severe drought has the highest frequency under the SSP585 scenario. The frequency of different levels of drought in different climatic regions of Gansu Province under different climatic scenarios is from large to small of light drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change continues to exert pressure on ocean ecosystems. The fisheries‐related responses, such as altered body growth, recruitment and spatial distribution of the targeted stock(s), have generally been reasonably well investigated. Nevertheless, there are still important knowledge gaps in how biophysical drivers impact stock productivity and thereby sustainable harvest levels. Considering this, we investigated 26 fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, a region characterized by accelerated climate change effects and a diverse set of fisheries. A novel, stepwise, Bayesian framework to quantify stock productivity was established to identify shared trends and project future patterns, aiming at determining essential baselines for adaptive fishery management in the face of climate change. Despite variation among large marine ecosystems and stocks, an overall declining trend in productivity over the past four decades was observed, especially in high‐latitude areas. These hindcast results were mainly attributed to higher temperatures posing negative effects on productivity, which was dependent on the stock's thermal preference. Contrastingly, the proxy for food availability – gross secondary production – exhibited less consistent impacts. In the forecast, the applied Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs) indicated that most stocks are likely to encounter adverse effects, with the worst cases expected to occur under SSP2‐4.5 in the 2050s, and under SSP5‐8.5 in the 2090s. Thus, this study generally not only supports earlier climate vulnerability assessments ('scorings') of experts but also provides evidence for revised directional effects under climate change, underlining the complexity of processes affecting stock productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave (HW) is vital for both natural systems and human populations. The Loess Plateau is located in a climate transition zone and is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to study HW in this region. Based on instrumental measurements, climate model data, atmospheric circulation data and HW metrics, this study comprehensively analyses past and future HW changes in the Loess Plateau and the influencing factors. From 1961 to 2019, the metrics for daytime heat wave(DHW) and nighttime heat wave(NHW) were as follows: duration (9.28/9.72 days), frequency (1.34/1.4 times, mean intensity (6.24/4.69 °C), maximum intensity (7.83/6.05 °C), and cumulative heat (44.45/32.63 °Cd). All metrics displayed an increasing trend (p < 0.05(NHW)). Geographically, the northern Loess Plateau exhibited the highest intensity and cumulative heat, whereas the southern region experienced longer HW. The solar flux index, western Pacific subtropical high area index, and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index were identified as the primary factors influencing HW in the Loess Plateau. By the end of the 21st century, both the duration and cumulative heat of HW are projected to rise significantly. NHW, in particular, will see extended durations and greater cumulative heat compared to DHW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For each pair of bounded linear operators A and B on a Hilbert space H , let ‖ A − B ‖ be their operator distance. Given an idempotent Q on H , consider the operator distances from Q to all of the projections on H. It is proved that there always exists a projection whose operator distance away from Q takes the maximum value. An example is constructed to show that such a projection may fail to be unique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent occurrences of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) may have considerable adverse impacts on human health and socioeconomic development. To project future summertime CDHWs over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China under carbon neutrality (CN) for policymakers, we used nine global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and evaluated and projected circulation conditions tied to the summer YRD CDHW frequency in the boreal summer. The results show that a marked mid‐tropospheric regional‐scale anticyclonic anomaly centred over the East China Sea can be deemed the dominant system linking the more frequent occurrence of YRD CDHWs. Our selected nine CMIP6 GCMs better captured the observed climatological and anomalous spatial circulation patterns connected to the summer YRD CDHW frequency. Moreover, the nine models' multi‐model ensemble mean (9MME) was better than most of the individual models regarding the related climatological circulation simulations. The 9MME‐projected changes in circulation conditions tied to summer YRD CDHWs during the carbon neutrality period (2050–2060) under SSP119 favour the comparable occurrence of the YRD with that for the same period under the medium greenhouse gas (GHG) warming scenario (SSP245), but the intensities of the CDHWs are the least severe. However, the highest number of YRD CDHWs is driven by the high GHG warming scenario (SSP585), and these CDHWs feature the most severe intensity. Our research identified a new paradigm regarding the frequency and intensity of the summer YRD CDHW under SSP119, highlighting the potential role of the newly accessible CN‐oriented sustainable development pathway in alleviating compound extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on ERA5 and 23 CMIP6 models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we assess the performance of CMIP6 models in reproducing the summer precipitation, evaporation and precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) over the Tibetan plateau (TP) during 1981–2014. We also project future changes of the summer precipitation, evaporation, PRR and moisture transport over the TP during 2021–2100. CMIP6 models and their ensemble mean to reproduce the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation, evaporation, PRR and moisture transport over the TP. And the performance in simulating precipitation is better than that in simulating evaporation and PRR. The precipitation and evaporation under the three SSPs will increase, with the significant upward trends of 0.84%/decade ~2.79%/decade and 0.80%/decade ~2.14%/decade, respectively. However, the PRR will increase slightly (0.13%/decade) and then marginally reduce (−0.22%/decade). In the late 21st century, regional mean summer precipitation, evaporation and PRR over the TP in SSP5‐8.5 will change by about 20.13%, 17.14%, and −0.77%, respectively. From spatial distribution, precipitation will increase in most parts of the TP in the 21st century, especially in the western part of the plateau, reaching more than 50% in of the late 21st century, the area of PRR decreased gradually expanded, with the maximum reduction (15%–20%) of PRR in the western region. It indicates that more precipitation in the western of the plateau depends on the external moisture transport. The PRR in the southern part of the plateau will increase, with a maximum of more than 20%, which indicates the contribution of the external water vapour transport to the southern precipitation will decrease, and that of the internal cycle (local evaporation) to the local precipitation will increase. In conclusion, the increase of the regional mean precipitation over the TP in the near and mid‐21st century is mainly due to the local evaporation, while the increase of the summer precipitation in the late 21st century is due to both the local evaporation and the external water vapour advection, it shows that the precipitation generated by the inner circulation is becoming weaker and more dependent on the external water vapour transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drug use disorders (DUDs) have emerged as one of the most significant public health crises, exerting a substantial influence on both community health and socio-economic progress. The United States (US) also suffers a heavy burden, it is necessary to figure out the situation from multiple perspectives and take effective measures to deal with it. Therefore, using the data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021, we evaluated this topic. Methods: Annual data on DUDs-related burden were collected from the GBD study 2021. We calculated the indicator of estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate the changing trend of burden. The Bayesian model for age-period-cohort was introduced to forecast the burden. Results: In 2021, the number and age-standardized rate of prevalence were particularly prominent, with 12,146.95 thousand and 3821.43 per 100,000, respectively. Higher burden was also observed in males, 15–45 years old populations, and opioid use disorders subtype. From 1990 to 2021, the DUDs-related burden increased in the US and all states, especially in West Virginia; and the national death-related burden with the highest increase (EAPC = 7.96). Other significant inverse associations were seen between EAPC, age-standardized rates, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Moreover, in the next 14 years, the projected DUDs burden remains exigent. Conclusions: The burden of DUDs in the US is heavy and has been enlarging. This study proposes that greater attention should be paid to the strategies in males, the younger population, opioid use disorders, and low-SDI states implemented by decision-makers to achieve goals such as reducing burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractFunctional data analysis (FDA) is an important modern paradigm for handling infinite-dimensional data. An important task in FDA is clustering, which identifies subgroups based on the shapes of measured curves. Considering that derivatives can provide additional useful information about the shapes of functionals, we propose a novel L2 distance between two random functions by incorporating the functions and their derivative information to determine the dissimilarity of curves under a unified scheme for dense observations. The Karhunen–Loève expansion is used to approximate the curves and their derivatives. Cluster membership prediction for each curve intends to minimize the new distances between the observed and predicted curves through subspace projection among all possible clusters. We provide consistent estimators for the curves, curve derivatives, and the proposed distance. Identifiability issues of the clustering procedure are also discussed. The utility of the proposed method is illustrated via simulation studies and applications to two real datasets. The proposed method can considerably improve cluster performance compared with existing functional clustering methods. Supplementary materials for the article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study a two-dimensional coordinate descent method to solve large linear least squares problems expanding on the method presented by Leventhal and Lewis. For an overdetermined system with full column rank, they proved its convergence in expectation, regardless of its consistency. In our work, we present a block version of the same. We also present an update on the extension done by Ma et al. to address non-full rank linear systems or underdetermined linear systems. Convergence is analyzed for the stated methods, and numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate their efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a theory of link projections to trivalent spines of 3-manifolds. We prove a Reidemeister Theorem providing a set of combinatorial moves sufficient to relate the projections of isotopic links. We also show that any link admits a crossingless projection to any special spine and we refine our theorem to provide a set of combinatorial moves sufficient to relate crossingless diagrams. Finally, we discuss the connection to Turaev's shadow world, interpreting our result as a statement about shadow equivalence of a class of 4-manifolds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the inverse quasi-variational inequality problem. Motivated by the dynamical approach to solving optimization problems such as variational inequality, monotone inclusion, and inverse variational problems, we consider a dynamical system associated with the inverse quasi-variational inequality problem, and establish the existence and uniqueness of a solution to the proposed system. We prove that every trajectory of the proposed dynamical system converges to the unique solution of the inverse quasi-variational inequality problem and that the system is globally asymptotically stable at its equilibrium point. We also prove that if the function which governs the inverse quasi-variational inequality problem is strongly monotone and Lipschitz continuous, then the dynamical system is globally exponentially stable at its equilibrium point. We discretize the dynamical system and show that the sequence generated by the discretization of the system converges strongly to the unique solution of the inverse quasi-variational inequality problem under certain assumptions on the parameters involved. Finally, we provide numerical examples to support and illustrate our theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a personal paper about the author's animus, Watsky explores his fascination with Louise Glück, after attempting to solicit first her poetry for Jung Journal and then an interview about her voice in her poetry shortly after her death. He realized he had projected his anima onto a complete stranger known only through her writing. Suspicious of his motives, he proceeds to read her entire oeuvre during a two-week period, exploring their intersections and their divergences. Watsky then narrates a previous projection onto the writer Joanna Field who turned out to be the Freudian analyst Marion Milner. After reading all of her work and convinced that she had been influenced by Jung, he sought her out in Hamstead, England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In ACM TOMS Algorithm 1012, the DELAUNAYSPARSE software is given for performing Delaunay interpolation in medium to high dimensions. When extrapolating outside the convex hull of the training set, DELAUNAYSPARSE calls the nonnegative least squares solver DWNNLS to compute projections onto the convex hull. However, DWNNLS and many other available sum-of-squares optimization solvers were not intended for usage with many variable problems, which result from the large training sets that are typical in machine learning applications. Thus, a new PROJECT subroutine is given, based on the highly customizable quadratic program solver BQPD. This solution is shown to be as robust as DELAUNAYSPARSE for projection onto both synthetic and real-world datasets, where other available solvers frequently fail. Although it is intended as an update for DELAUNAYSPARSE, due to the difficulty and prevalence of the problem, this solution is likely to be of external interest as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In its typical form, an "anima projection" is a psychic experience in which a heterosexual man is caught up by an intense, almost magical attraction for a woman. What sets these numinous experiences apart from a common "crush" is a pattern of specific phenomenological characteristics. Anima projections are particularly common in late adolescence and early adulthood, when they can cause a deep sense of disorientation. Little education exists for young men on how to deal with these experiences and to actualize the developmental opportunity that underlies them. In this paper, I frame anima projections as an ethical problem and outline a psycho‐ethical "map" that is intended for use by disoriented young men, or by any practitioner who may be tasked with helping them navigate this challenge along the path of individuation. The map considers four solutions to the love problem: the "concretistic‐literal", the "fearful‐avoidant", the "rational‐depressive", and the "transitional‐developmental" solution, and indicates the latter as the one that is conducive to optimal psychic development. Although developed with a focus on young men, the map may apply to other relations based on projection, regardless of age, sex, gender, or sexual orientation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the importance of coastal upwelling systems to ocean productivity, fisheries, and biogeochemical cycles, their response to climate change is of great interest. However, there is no consensus on future productivity changes in these systems, which may be controlled by multiple drivers including wind‐driven and geostrophic transport, stratification, and source water properties. Here we use an ensemble of regional ocean projections and recently developed upwelling indices for the California Current System to disentangle these sometimes‐competing influences. Some changes are consistent among models (e.g., decreased mixed layer depth), while for others there is a lack of agreement even on the direction of future change (e.g., nitrate concentration in upwelled waters). Despite models' diverging projections of productivity changes, they agree that those changes are predominantly driven by subsurface nitrate concentrations, not by upwelling strength. Our results highlight the need for more attention to processes governing subsurface nutrient changes, not just upwelling strength. Plain Language Summary: The California Current System is one of the world's eastern boundary upwelling systems—some of the most productive regions in the global ocean. These regions support a wide range of human activities, such as fisheries and tourism, motivating extensive research on how they might evolve under future climate change. A number of hypotheses have been offered to describe future physical and chemical change in these systems, and in terms of their impacts on primary production (which forms the base of the marine food web), these mechanisms may reinforce or oppose each other. Enhanced nutrient concentrations in upwelling source waters would support higher productivity, increased stratification would limit nutrient supply and productivity, and increased upwelling could enhance productivity to a point but limit productivity if it is too strong. There is no consensus on which mechanism(s) will predominantly drive future productivity changes. Here we provide a detailed analysis of projected physical and biogeochemical changes and how they relate to productivity changes. Even though different models project different futures, we find that in all of them the primary control on productivity is the nitrate concentration of subsurface waters, not the strength of upwelling, which has received more attention to date. Key Points: Future changes in the California Current System are evaluated using an ensemble of downscaled ocean projectionsWe evaluate changes in Ekman and geostrophic transports, water column structure, and subsurface nitrate concentrationsAcross models, phytoplankton biomass changes are more closely tied to subsurface nitrate concentration than upwelling strength [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a new relaxed method for solving the split feasibility problem in Hilbert spaces. In our method, the projection to the halfspace is replaced by the one to the intersection of two halfspaces. We give convergence of the sequence generated by our method under some suitable assumptions. Finally, we give a numerical example for illustrating the efficiency and implementation of our algorithms in comparison with existing algorithms in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The order Chiroptera includes 55 species in Nepal, which have been recorded within a wide range of elevation between 64 and 4154 m above sea level. Assessing the potential distribution ranges in present climatic scenarios and forecasting changes in distribution ranges in future climate have been adopted to predict likely adverse impacts on biodiversity and natural ecosystems. However, very few studies have assessed the impact of climate change on bats globally and locally. We assessed the current potential distribution ranges of six representative species of bats occurring in Nepal using species distribution models (SDMs) and predicted their responses in future climatic scenarios. The occurrences of the representative species of bats were projected with six to eight environmental variables under the different climatic scenarios; present, and socioeconomic pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for the years of 2050 and 2070 deploying maximum entropy modeling. We used Arc GIS 10.7.1 to calculate the distribution range, area, and elevation for the bat species. Among 18 uncorrelated bioclimatic variables eight variables significantly contributed to the SDMs. Among the six species, two showed a wider range of current distribution. Under the future climatic scenarios, distribution ranges and latitudinal and elevation shifting were found to be species specific. Future distribution ranges for two species are predicted to be constricted, but no significant changes are predicted for the others. Major parts of the current and future distribution ranges of the bat species lie outside the current protected areas of the country. Landscape level and species‐specific conservation policies are necessary for bat conservation, and future surveys of bats should be targeted in western Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cet article décrit le poids, les facteurs de risque, la mortalité et les tendances évolutives et à venir des fractures de l'extrémité supérieure du fémur en France. Le choix s'est porté sur l'analyse des données nationales disponibles en France avec notamment un focus méthodologique sur la caractérisation de l'événement et des paramètres associés étudiés. Si cette fracture est notamment observée chez le sujet âgé (60 ans et plus) et la femme, on ne peut négliger le rôle d'autres facteurs de risque tels les comorbidités avec notamment une place pour la démence et la dialyse, les fractures ostéoporotiques antérieures et l'insuffisance de prise en charge thérapeutique. La mortalité immédiate ou dans les suites de cette facture, qu'elle soit attribuable ou non à cette dernière, n'est pas à être sous-estimée. Si la tendance montre une augmentation du nombre des hospitalisations notamment liée aux évolutions démographiques, les projections estimées soulignent une hausse préoccupante, en particulier chez la femme, nécessitant une attention immédiate et des stratégies préventives efficaces. Il persiste le besoin de prioriser l'ostéoporose en tant que préoccupation majeure de santé publique en France. This article describes the burden, risk factors, mortality, and evolutionary and future trends of upper femoral fractures of the in France. The choice was made to analyze the national data available in France, with a methodological focus on characterizing the event and the associated parameters studied. While this fracture is particularly common in the elderly (aged 60 and over), especially women, the role of other factors cannot be overlooked, such as co-morbidities (with a particular focus on dementia and dialysis), previous osteoporotic fractures and inadequate therapeutic management. Mortality, whether or no attributable to the fracture, should not be underestimated. While the trend shows an increase in the number of hospital admissions, linked to demographic trends, estimated projections point to a worrying rise, particularly among women, requiring immediate attention and effective preventive strategies. There is still a need to prioritize osteoporosis as a major public health concern in France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For each pair of matrices A and B with the same order, let ‖ A − B ‖ F denote their Frobenius distance. This paper deals mainly with the Frobenius distances from projections to an idempotent matrix. For every idempotent Q ∈ C n × n , a projection m (Q) called the matched projection can be induced. It is proved that m (Q) is the unique projection whose Frobenius distance away from Q takes the minimum value among all the Frobenius distances from projections to Q , while I n − m (Q) is the unique projection whose Frobenius distance away from Q takes the maximum value. Furthermore, it is proved that for every number α between the minimum value and the maximum value, there exists a projection P whose Frobenius distance away from Q takes the value α. Based on the above characterization of the minimum distance, some Frobenius norm upper bounds and lower bounds of ‖ P − Q ‖ F are derived under the condition of P Q = Q on a projection P and an idempotent Q. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore wind speed in China plays a key role in affecting air–sea interactions, coastal tides, and wind energy, but its changes in a warming climate and the associated causes remain unclear. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, this study evaluates the past and future variations of wind speed at 10 m (WS10) over China's offshore seas in summer and winter. The results show that the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs well in simulating the climatological patterns (1981–2010) of WS10 for both seasons. The trends and leading variabilities in WS10 are also reasonably reproduced in the South China Sea (SCS). In the northern SCS, WS10 has strengthened during both seasons in the recent decades. In contrast, in the East China Sea (ECS), WS10 has increased (decreased) during summer (winter). Further attribution analysis suggests that the forcing of greenhouse gasses (aerosols) may make WS10 stronger (weaker) in the two seas and for both seasons, while natural variability tends to slow down (speed up) WS10 in the SCS and ECS during summer (winter). In addition, according to the CMIP6 model projections under various warming scenarios, WS10 is likely to increase over both the northern SCS and the ECS in summer, while WS10 will increase over the northern SCS but decrease over the ECS in winter. Differences in the projected WS10 changes in the ECS during summer and winter are attributed to the projected intensification (weakening) of the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Right C-restriction semigroups are the common generalizations of right C-rpp semigroups and right C-lpp semigroups. The structure of such a semigroup is established in terms of the Δ -product of a right regular band and a C-restriction semigroup. As its applications, we give the structures of right C-rpp semigroups and right C-lpp semigroups. Also, we give the dual wreath product structure of right C-restriction semigroups. These results extend the related results in (Semigroup Forum 68 (2004) 280–292) and (Algebra Colloquium 14 (2007) 285–294). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. Methods: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858. Results: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand–supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements. Conclusions: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be − 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were − 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of − 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001–2016 were − 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be − 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Augmented reality (AR) in laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) can improve intrahepatic navigation by creating a virtual liver transparency. Our team has recently developed Hepataug, an AR software that projects the invisible intrahepatic tumors onto the laparoscopic images and allows the surgeon to localize them precisely. However, the accuracy of registration according to the location and size of the tumors, as well as the influence of the projection axis, have never been measured. The aim of this work was to measure the three-dimensional (3D) tumor prediction error of Hepataug. Eight 3D virtual livers were created from the computed tomography scan of a healthy human liver. Reference markers with known coordinates were virtually placed on the anterior surface. The virtual livers were then deformed and 3D printed, forming 3D liver phantoms. After placing each 3D phantom inside a pelvitrainer, registration allowed Hepataug to project virtual tumors along two axes: the laparoscope axis and the operator port axis. The surgeons had to point the center of eight virtual tumors per liver with a pointing tool whose coordinates were precisely calculated. We obtained 128 pointing experiments. The average pointing error was 29.4 ± 17.1 mm and 9.2 ± 5.1 mm for the laparoscope and operator port axes respectively (P = 0.001). The pointing errors tended to increase with tumor depth (correlation coefficients greater than 0.5 with P < 0.001). There was no significant dependency of the pointing error on the tumor size for both projection axes. Tumor visualization by projection toward the operating port improves the accuracy of AR guidance and partially solves the problem of the two-dimensional visual interface of monocular laparoscopy. Despite a lower precision of AR for tumors located in the posterior part of the liver, it could allow the surgeons to access these lesions without completely mobilizing the liver, hence decreasing the surgical trauma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classical Cauchy surface area formula states that the surface area of the boundary ∂ K = Σ of any n-dimensional convex body in the n-dimensional Euclidean space R n can be obtained by the average of the projected areas of Σ along all directions in S n − 1 . In this note, we generalize the formula to the boundary of arbitrary n-dimensional submanifold in R n by introducing a natural notion of projected areas along any direction in S n − 1 . This surface area formula derived from the new notion coincides with not only the result of the Crofton formula but also with that of De Jong (Math. Semesterber. 60(1):81–83, 2013) by using a tubular neighborhood. We also define the projected r-volumes of Σ onto any r-dimensional subspaces and obtain a recursive formula for mean projected r-volumes of Σ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While there has been extensive research on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and its associated factors in Iran, a significant gap exists in studies predicting its future trends. Our study aimed to thoroughly report CRC incidence across Iran from 2014 to 2017, by sex, age, and geographical regions, and provide a projection for 2025. Methods: This retrospective study utilized data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR). Patients with the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition (ICD-O-3) codes C18 to C21 were included. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), was calculated per 100 000 individuals annually, and crude incidence rates were retrieved for various demographic groups and years. Results: Between 2014 and 2017, a total of 43 580 new CRC cases (55.96% males) were registered. Men exhibited an ASR of 134.45, while women's ASR was 94.85. The highest ASRs were observed in Tehran, Qom, and Ilam (18.99, 18.26, and 18.06, respectively). Incidence rates surpassed 20 after age 50 for both genders, reaching their peak within the 80-84 age group. Adenocarcinoma was the most frequent histological type of CRC in nearly all provinces. Case numbers and ASRs are projected to continuously rise until 2025, with a predominance of male cases. Conclusion: The anticipated increase in CRC incidence in Iran emphasizes the need for additional studies to better identify risk factors. Furthermore, implementing screening programs is recommended for individuals at a higher risk of CRC, including men, the elderly population, and those residing in regions with a notable prevalence of CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a new study on hysteria, the author seeks what can be revealed in relation to the classic model of neurosis. It is from clinical experience that the emergence of projection leads us to think about its unique place and role within psychic functioning furthermore supported by repression and internal conflict. The bodily ailments so characteristic of hysterical symptoms arise then from a displacement of the same order when words fail. In certain situations, projection reverses this dominant tendency by the externalization of instinctual movements and the fantasies attached to them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat‐forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat‐forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of −17.08° S of latitude for 2090–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to −27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio‐ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive description of hearing loss in China and the shifting pattern remain unclear. We conducted the study to estimate the burden of hearing loss in China and project the trends from 2020 to 2034. Data on the disease burden of hearing loss were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of hearing loss burden were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. In China, prevalent cases of hearing loss increased from 224.4 million in 1990 to 426.5 million in 2019, representing an increase of 90.1 %. The age-standardized prevalence rate of hearing loss ranged from 22,592.8/100,000 in 1990–22,612.4/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.003 %, representing a stable trend. Of the category of hearing loss, mild hearing loss accounted for the highest proportion, with 331.4 million people. More than 95 million people had moderate-to-complete hearing loss. Moreover, hearing loss was mostly attributable to age-related and other factors for adults and otitis media for children younger than 10 years. Based on the projection results, there will be 561 million people (40.1 % of the total population) have hearing loss by 2034. The prevalent cases of hearing loss in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. Over two in five Chinese people will have hearing loss by 2034, thus suggesting more solutions should be established to reduce the burden of hearing loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]