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Abstract: A damaging and widely felt moderate (Mw 5.0) earthquake occurred in the Talala region of Saurashtra, Gujarat (western India) on November 6, 2007. The highly productive sequence comprised about 1300 micro earthquakes (M >0.5) out of which 325 of M ⩾1.5 that occurred during November 6, 2007–January 10, 2008 were precisely located. The spatial aftershock distribution revealed a NE–SW striking fault in accordance with the centroid moment tensor solution, which in turn implies left-lateral motion. The orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly orientated geological fault identified in the area from satellite imagery and field investigation. The aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of frequency–magnitude distribution, spatial fractal dimension, D, and slip ratio (ratio of the slip occurred on the primary fault to the total slip) were examined with the purpose to identify the properties of the sequence. The high b-value (1.18±0.01) may be attributed to the paucity of the larger (M ⩾4.0) aftershocks and reveals crustal heterogeneity and low stress regime. The high p-value (1.10±0.39), implying fast decay rate of aftershocks, evidences high surface heat flux. A value of the spatial fractal dimension (D) equal to 2.21±0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and source in a two-dimensional plane that is being filled-up by fractures. A slip ratio of 0.42 reveals that more slip occurred on secondary fault systems. The static Coulomb stress changes due to the coseismic slip of the main shock, enhanced off fault aftershock occurrence. The occurrence of a moderate earthquake (Mw 4.3) on October 5, 2008 inside a region of positive Coulomb stress changes supports the postulation on aftershock triggering. When the stress changes were resolved on a cross section including the stronger (M4.8) foreshock plane that is positioned adjacent to the main fault, it became evident that the activity continued there due to stress transfer from the main rupture. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The seismic characteristic of Hindukush–Pamir–Himalaya (HPH) and its vicinity is very peculiar and has experienced many widely distributed large earthquakes. Recent work on the time-dependent seismicity in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”, which is expressed by the relation log T=cMp+a, where T is the inter-event time between two successive main shocks of a region and Mp is the magnitude of the preceded main shock. Parameter a is a function of the magnitude of the minimum earthquake considered and of the tectonic loading and c is positive (∼0.3) constant. In 90% of the cases with sufficient data, parameter c was found to be positive, which strongly supports the validity of the model. In the present study, a different approach, which assumes no prior regionalization of the area, is attempted to check the validity of the model. Nine seismic sources were defined within the considered region and the inter-event time of strong shallow main shock were determined and used for each source in an attempt at long-term prediction, which show the clustering and occurrence of at least three earthquakes of magnitude 5.5≤Ms≤7.5 giving two repeat times, satisfying the necessary and sufficient conditions of time-predictable model (TP model). Further, using the global applicability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, the following relations have been obtained: log Tt=0.19 Mmin+0.52Mp+0.29 log m0−10.63 and Mf=1.31Mmin−0.60Mp−0.72 log m0+21.01, where Tt is the inter-event time, measured in years; Mmin the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered; Mp the magnitude of preceding main shock; Mf the magnitude of the following main shock; and m0 the moment rate in each source per year.These relations may be used for seismic hazard assessment in the region. Based on these relations and taking into account the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the last main shock in each seismogenic source, time-dependent conditional probabilities for the occurrence of the next large (Ms≥5.5) shallow main shocks during the next 20 years as well as the magnitudes of the expected main shocks are determined. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]