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Testing for intraspecific variation for host tolerance or resistance in wild populations is important for informing conservation decisions about captive breeding, translocation, and disease treatment. Here, we test the importance of tolerance and resistance in multiple populations of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) against Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the amphibian fungal pathogen responsible for the greatest host biodiversity loss due to disease. Boreal toads have severely declined in Colorado (CO) due to Bd, but toad populations challenged with Bd in western Wyoming (WY) appear to be less affected. We used a common garden infection experiment to expose post‐metamorphic toads sourced from four populations (2 in CO and 2 in WY) to Bd and monitored changes in mass, pathogen burden and survival for 8 weeks. We used a multi‐state modelling approach to estimate weekly survival and transition probabilities between infected and cleared states, reflecting a dynamic infection process that traditional approaches fail to capture. We found that WY boreal toads are more tolerant to Bd infection with higher survival probabilities than those in CO when infected with identical pathogen burdens. WY toads also appeared more resistant to Bd with a higher probability of infection clearance and an average of 5 days longer to reach peak infection burdens. Our results demonstrate strong intraspecific differences in tolerance and resistance that likely contribute to why population declines vary regionally across this species. Our multi‐state framework allowed us to gain inference on typically hidden disease processes when testing for host tolerance or resistance. Our findings demonstrate that describing an entire host species as ‘tolerant’ or ‘resistant’ (or lack thereof) is unwise without testing for intraspecific variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have noted differences in microbes associated with animals reared in captivity compared to their wild counterparts, but few studies have examined how microbes change when animals are reintroduced to the wild after captive rearing. As captive assurance populations and reintroduction programs increase, a better understanding of how microbial symbionts respond during animal translocations is critical. We examined changes in microbes associated with boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas), a threatened amphibian, after reintroduction to the wild following captive rearing. Previous studies demonstrate that developmental life stage is an important factor in amphibian microbiomes. We collected 16S marker-gene sequencing datasets to investigate: (i) comparisons of the skin, mouth, and fecal bacteria of boreal toads across four developmental life stages in captivity and the wild, (ii) tadpole skin bacteria before and after reintroduction to the wild, and (iii) adult skin bacteria during reintroduction to the wild. We demonstrated that differences occur across skin, fecal, and mouth bacterial communities in captive versus wild boreal toads, and that the degree of difference depends on developmental stage. Skin bacterial communities from captive tadpoles were more similar to their wild counterparts than captive post-metamorphic individuals were to their wild counterparts. When captive-reared tadpoles were introduced to a wild site, their skin bacteria changed rapidly to resemble wild tadpoles. Similarly, the skin bacterial communities of reintroduced adult boreal toads also shifted to resemble those of wild toads. Our results indicate that a clear microbial signature of captivity in amphibians does not persist after release into natural habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the causes of population variation in host response to disease, and the mechanisms of persistence, can serve as vital information for species conservation. One such mechanism of population persistence that has gained support is the demographic process of compensatory recruitment. Host populations may persist by increasing recruitment to compensate for reduced survival due to infection, thus limiting the negative effects of the disease on population trajectories. However, high‐elevation populations are inherently vulnerable to stochastic processes and may be limited in their ability to exhibit compensatory recruitment relative to lower elevation populations.We use long‐term mark–recapture data from five populations of boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas boreas, across an elevational gradient in Colorado, before and after pathogen arrival to assess whether populations can persist with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) via compensatory recruitment.Prior to pathogen arrival, we found a life‐history trade‐off between survival and recruitment across elevations, where high‐elevation toads have high survival but lower recruitment and vice versa at lower elevations.Pathogen arrival had a strong negative effect on apparent annual survival and recruitment leading to negative population growth rates and dramatically reduced host abundances. The data did not support the occurrence of compensatory recruitment.Synthesis and applications. Our unique dataset indicates that demographic responses to pathogens may be environmentally (i.e. elevationally) context dependent and highlights the value of long‐term monitoring. We recommend that practitioners verify that potential persistence mechanisms occur across multiple populations and relevant environmental gradients to counter any assumptions of the mechanism existing species‐wide. Quantifying variation in population responses to disease will aid in understanding the bounds of such persistence mechanisms and identify particularly vulnerable populations where mechanisms are nonexistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Highlight: Valenzuela‐Sánchez, A., Azat, C., Cunningham, A. A., Delgado, S., Bacigalupe, L. D., Beltrand, J., Serrano, J. M., Sentenac, H., Haddow, N., Toledo, V., Schmidt, B. R., & Cayuela, H. (2022). Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology, 00, 1– 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365‐2656.13603. Understanding the nuances of population persistence in the face of a stressor can help predict extinction risk and guide conservation actions. However, the exact mechanisms driving population stability may not always be known. In this paper, Valenzuela‐Sánchez et al. (2022) integrate long‐term mark–recapture data, focal measurements of reproductive effort, a population matrix model and inferences on life‐history variation to reveal differences in demographic response to disease in a susceptible frog species (Rhinoderma darwinii). Valenzuela‐Sánchez et al. found that demographic compensation via recruitment explained the positive population growth rate in their high disease prevalence population whereas the low disease prevalence population did not compensate and thus had decreasing population growth. Compensatory recruitment was likely due to the high probability of males brooding, and the high number of brooded larvae in the high prevalence population compared to low prevalence and disease‐free populations. Valenzuela‐Sánchez et al. also document faster generation times in the high prevalence population, which may indicate a faster life history that may be contributing to the population's ability to compensate for reduced survival. Lastly, the authors find a positive relationship between disease prevalence and the proportion of juveniles in a given population that suggest that there may be a threshold for disease prevalence that triggers increased reproductive effort. Altogether, their study provides novel support for increased reproductive effort as the pathway for compensatory recruitment leading to increasing population growth despite strong negative effects of disease on adult survival. Their results also caution the overgeneralization of the effects of stressors (e.g. disease) on population dynamics, where context‐dependent responses may differ among host populations of a given species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) are significant invaders in many places and can negatively impact native species. Despite their impact and wide distribution, little is known about their demography. We used five years of capture mark-recapture data to estimate annual apparent survival of post-metamorphic bullfrogs in a population on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in their invaded range in Arizona, U.S.A. This population is a potential source of colonists into breeding ponds used by the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog (L. chiricahuensis). Results from robust-design Cormack-Jolly-Seber models suggested that survival of bullfrogs was influenced by sex and precipitation but not body condition. Survival was higher for females (mean = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.15 , 0.72) than males (mean = 0.17; 95% CI = 0.02 , 0.49), and declined with reduced annual precipitation (mean = −0.36, 95% CI = −2.09, 0.84). These survival estimates can be incorporated into models of population dynamics and to help predict spread of bullfrogs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi‐permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volumes of data illustrate the severity of the crisis affecting amphibians, where > 32% of amphibians worldwide are threatened with declining populations. Although there have been isolated victories, the current approach to the issue is unsuccessful. We suggest that a radically different approach, something akin to human emergency response management (i.e. the Incident Command System), is one alternative to addressing the inertia and lack of cohesion in responding to amphibian issues. We acknowledge existing efforts and the useful research that has been conducted, but we suggest that a change is warranted and that the identification of a new amphibian chytrid provides the impetus for such a change. Our goal is to recognize that without a centralized effort we (collectively) are likely to fail in responding to this challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article reports on the geographical distribution of Tiger Salamanders, Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi species in Sonora, Mexico. Topics discussed include loss of natural wetland habitats, inbreeding caused by small population sizes and limited gene flow and lack of information on the distribution of Tiger Salamanders in Sonora , Mexico that poses challenges to conservation planning.

The reintroduction of a species into its historic range is a critical component of conservation programmes designed to restore extirpated metapopulations. However, many reintroduction efforts fail, and the lack of rigorous monitoring programmes and statistical models have prevented a general understanding of the factors affecting metapopulation viability following reintroduction., Spatially explicit metapopulation theory provides the basis for understanding the dynamics of fragmented populations linked by dispersal, but the theory has rarely been used to guide reintroduction programmes because most spatial metapopulation models require presence-absence data from every site in the network, and they do not allow for observation error such as imperfect detection., We develop a spatial occupancy model that relaxes these restrictive assumptions and allows for inference about metapopulation extinction risk and connectivity. We demonstrate the utility of the model using six years of data on the Chiricahua leopard frog Lithobates chiricahuensis, a threatened desert-breeding amphibian that was reintroduced to a network of sites in Arizona USA in 2003., Our results indicate that the model can generate precise predictions of extinction risk and produce connectivity maps that can guide conservation efforts following reintroduction. In the case of L. chiricahuensis, many sites were functionally isolated, and 82% of sites were characterized by intermittent water availability and high local extinction probabilities (0·84, 95% CI: 0·64-0·99). However, under the current hydrological conditions and spatial arrangement of sites, the risk of metapopulation extinction is estimated to be <3% over a 50-year time horizon., Low metapopulation extinction risk appears to result from the high dispersal capability of the species, the high density of sites in the region and the existence of predator-free permanent wetlands with low local extinction probabilities. Should management be required, extinction risk can be reduced by either increasing the hydroperiod of existing sites or by creating new sites to increase connectivity., Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Animal reintroductions will likely increase though quantitative and interim evaluations of progress are rare. [•] Adaptive management requires such assessments which are critical in redefining efforts to meet circumstances and budgets. [•] Results from an ongoing reintroduction effort of Boreal Toads illustrate how intermediate results can inform next steps. [•] We used a novel application of multistate robust design to estimate early-stage survival and quantify interim success. [•] We illustrate the efficacy of this method and the value of such information within an adaptive management framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much attention has been given to the conservation of small populations, those that are small because of decline, and those that are naturally small. Small populations are of particular interest because ecological theory suggests that they are vulnerable to the deleterious effects of environmental, demographic, and genetic stochasticity as well as natural and human-induced catastrophes. However, testing theory and developing applicable conservation measures for small populations is hampered by sparse data. This lack of information is frequently driven by computational issues with small data sets that can be confounded by the impacts of stressors. We present estimates of demographic parameters from a small population of Boreal Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) that has been surveyed since 2001 by using capture-recapture methods. Estimates of annual adult survival probability are high relative to other Boreal Toad populations, whereas estimates of recruitment rate are low. Despite using simple models, clear patterns emerged from the analyses, suggesting that population size is constrained by low recruitment of adults and is declining slowly. These patterns provide insights that are useful in developing management directions for this small population, and this study serves as an example of the potential for small populations to yield robust and useful information despite sample size constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Call surveys used to monitor breeding choruses of anuran amphibians generate index values that are frequently used to represent the number of male frogs present, but few studies have quantified this relationship. We compared abundance of male Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata), estimated using capture-recapture methods in two populations in Colorado, to call index values derived from automated recordings. Single index values, such as might result from large monitoring efforts, were unrelated to population size. A synthetic call saturation index (CSI), the daily proportion of the maximum possible sum of index values derived from multiple recordings, was greater in larger populations, but the relationship was not highly predictive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. 2. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program MARK to 6 years of capture–recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. 3. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. 4. High recruitment rates (0•41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0•51–0•54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0•75–0•78) but lower recruitment rates (0•25). 5. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that Populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus] ) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Emerging pathogens impact amphibians even in mostly intact & pristine ecosystems. • >20 yrs of disease data help frame understanding of amphibian response to disease. • Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) ubiquitous in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. • Long-term capture data show continued reduction in survival due to Bd. • Mortality events attributed to, or consistent with, ranaviruses are widespread. Emerging infectious disease threatens amphibian biodiversity worldwide, including in landscapes that are protected from many anthropogenic stressors. We summarized data from studies in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), one of the largest and most complete temperate-zone ecosystems on Earth, to assess the current state of knowledge about ranaviruses and the novel amphibian chytrid fungus (Bd) in this landscape, and to provide insight into future threats and conservation strategies. Our comprehension of these amphibian diseases in the GYE is based on >20 years of monitoring, surveys, population studies, and opportunistic observations of mortality events. Research indicates that local species are affected differently, depending on temperature, community structure, and location in the GYE. Bd has not been linked to die-offs in the GYE but evidence for ongoing reductions in survival contributes to foundational data about the effects of this pathogen in North America. Localized mortality events attributed to, or consistent with, disease from ranaviruses, are widespread in the GYE, but there is less information on how ranaviruses affect amphibian vital rates. The significance of disease in the long-term persistence of amphibians in the GYE is linked to anticipated changes in climate, especially drought. Additionally, expected increases in visitor use, and its associated impacts, have the potential to exacerbate the effects of disease. Long-term information from this large, intact landscape helps to frame our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians and provides data that can contribute to management decisions, mitigation strategies, and forecasting efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the relationships between animal population demography and the abiotic and biotic elements of the environments in which they live is a central objective in population ecology. For example, correlations between weather variables and the probability of survival in populations of temperate zone amphibians may be broadly applicable to several species if such correlations can be validated for multiple situations. This study focuses on the probability of survival and evaluates hypotheses based on six weather variables in three populations of Boreal Toads (Bufo boreas) from central Colorado over eight years. In addition to suggesting a relationship between some weather variables and survival probability in Boreal Toad populations, this study uses robust methods and highlights the need for demographic estimates that are precise and have minimal bias. Capture-recapture methods were used to collect the data, and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in program MARK was used for analysis. The top models included minimum daily winter air temperature, and the sum of the model weights for these models was 0.956. Weaker support was found for the importance of snow depth and the amount of environmental moisture in winter in modeling survival probability. Minimum daily winter air temperature was positively correlated with the probability of survival in Boreal Toads at other sites in Colorado and has been identified as an important covariate in studies in other parts of the world. If air temperatures are an important component of survival for Boreal Toads or other amphibians, changes in climate may have profound impacts on populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibian populations continue to be imperiled by the chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Understanding where B. dendrobatidis (Bd) occurs and how it may be limited by environmental factors is critical to our ability to effectively conserve the amphibians affected by Bd. We sampled 1247 amphibians (boreal toads and surrogates) at 261 boreal toad (Bufo boreas) breeding sites (97 clusters) along an 11° latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains to determine the distribution of B. dendrobatidis and examine environmental factors, such as temperature and elevation, that might affect its distribution. The fungus was detected at 64% of all clusters and occurred across a range of elevations (1030–3550m) and latitudes (37.6–48.6°) but we detected it in only 42% of clusters in the south (site elevations higher), compared to 84% of clusters in the north (site elevations lower). Maximum ambient temperature (daily high) explained much of the variation in Bd occurrence in boreal toad populations and thus perhaps limits the occurrence of the pathogen in the Rocky Mountains to areas where climatic conditions facilitate optimal growth of the fungus. This information has implications in global climate change scenarios where warming temperatures may facilitate the spread of disease into previously un- or little-affected areas (i.e., higher elevations). This study provides the first regional-level, field-based effort to examine the relationship of environmental and geographic factors to the distribution of B. dendrobatidis in North America and will assist managers to focus on at-risk populations as determined by the local temperature regimes, latitude and elevation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Male boreal toads (Bufo boreas) are thought to return to the breeding site every year but, if absent in a particular year, will be more likely to return the following year. Using Pollock's robust design we estimated temporary emigration (the probability a male toad is absent from a breeding site in a given year) at three locations in Colorado, USA: two in Rocky Mountain National Park and one in Chaffee County. We present data that suggest that not all male toads return to the breeding site every year. Our analyses indicate that temporary emigration varies by site and time (for example, from 1992 to 1998, the probability of temporary emigration ranged from 10% to 29% and from 3% to 95% at Lost Lake and Kettle Tarn, respectively). Although the results provide weak evidence that males are more likely to return after a year's hiatus, a general pattern of state-dependent temporary emigration was not supported. We also hypothesized relationships between temporary emigration and a number of weather variables. While some competitive models included weather covariates, imprecise and variable estimates of the effects of these covariates precluded fully defining their impact on temporary emigration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a letter to the editor on annual variation in estimated flux of ultraviolet-B radiation.

The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capture–recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The snowpack in the vicinity of the Mount Zirkel Wilderness Area is among the most acidic in the western United States. We analyzed water chemistry and examined hatching success in tiger salamanders and chorus frogs at ponds there and at nearby Rabbit Ears Pass (Dumont) to determine whether acid deposition affects amphibians or their breeding habitats at these potentially sensitive locations. We found a wide range of acid neutralizing capacity among ponds within sites; the minimum pH recorded during the experiment was 5.4 at one of 12 ponds with all others at pH ≥ 5.7. At Dumont, hatching success for chorus frogs was greater in ponds with low acid neutralizing capacity; however, lowest pHs were > 5.8. At current levels of acid deposition, weather and pond characteristics are likely more important than acidity in influencing hatching success in amphibian larvae at these sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I sampled movements and amount of area used by boreal toads (Bufo boreas) between June and October for 3 yr. Females were found farther from the breeding site than were males, and mean home ranges, as calculated by the adaptive kernel method, were four times larger for females than for males. Temperature and snow accumulation were comparable over the study, but data collection was hampered by mortality of animals caused by an outbreak of amphibian chytridiomycosis in yr 2. These data provide insight into use of habitat by boreal toads in undisturbed areas but may not be typical of a completely healthy population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reduced water depth in dry years has been proposed to interact with ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation and a pathogenic fungus to cause episodes of high mortality of amphibian embryos. Observations of breeding phenology of boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) in Colorado from 1986 to 2001 show that dry years result in earlier breeding. The earliest and latest dates of maximum calling activity by males were 20 May and 16 June, and the date of maximum calling was strongly related to the amount of snow accumulation during the winten Surface UV-B flux, estimated from satellite-based measurements, was positively related to date of maximum calling. In dry years, surface UV-B during calling was reduced by an amount similar to that attributed to reduced depth. Although there was a significant trend of increasing UV-B from 1978 to 2001 on the average date (2 June) of maximum calling activity, there was no relationship between year and surface UV-B at actual dates of maximum calling. Exposure to extreme temperatures is an alternative explanation for increased mortality of amphibian embryos in shallow water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We appreciate the comments from Andreone (2016) regarding our proposed alternative strategy for addressing the amphibian crisis. Andreone recognizes the utility of an Incident Command System approach but doubts the feasibility of implementation at an international level. We stated in our original article, however, that ‘the feasibility of our suggestion is debatable, but our point is that radically different approaches are necessary to effectively manage the largest extinction event in modern history’ (Muths & Fisher, 2015). There are examples of where such top-down strategies are being applied; e.g. for the brown tree snake Boiga irregularis (Stanford & Rodda, 2007), and biosecurity planning for Micronesia and Hawaii (NAVFAC Pacific, 2016). Another example is presented by Andreone. In Madagascar a community-wide conservation plan has been developed complete with prioritization of specific actions (Andreone, 2016). As with any top-down strategy, challenges will surface, especially when making decisions that affect economics. We note this caveat in our article, and Andreone points out such issues in Madagascar, where there are mismatches in priorities between biodiversity conservation and civil needs. Our suggestion is that a new paradigm needs to be considered given the gravity of amphibian decline, and one option may be to take a global approach focusing on specific, major threats. Application of an Incident Command System would not necessitate competition with, or emasculation of, local conservation priorities or actions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Variation in temperature is known to influence mortality patterns in ectotherms. Even though a few experimental studies on model organisms have reported a positive relationship between temperature and actuarial senescence (i.e., the increase in mortality risk with age), how variation in climate influences the senescence rate across the range of a species is still poorly understood in freeranging animals. We filled this knowledge gap by investigating the relationships linking senescence rate, adult lifespan, and climatic conditions using long-term capture-recapture data from multiple amphibian populations. We considered two pairs of related anuran species from the Ranidae (Rana luteiventris and Rana temporaria) and Bufonidae (Anaxyrus boreas and Bufo bufo) families, which diverged more than 100 Mya and are broadly distributed in North America and Europe. Senescence rates were positively associated with mean annual temperature in all species. In addition, lifespan was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature in all species except A. boreas. In both R. luteiventris and A. boreas, mean annual precipitation and human environmental footprint both had negligible effects on senescence rates or lifespans. Overall, our findings demonstrate the critical influence of thermal conditions on mortality patterns across anuran species from temperate regions. In the current context of further global temperature increases predicted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, a widespread acceleration of aging in amphibians is expected to occur in the decades to come, which might threaten even more seriously the viability of populations and exacerbate global decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Science-based management strategies are needed to halt or reverse the global decline of amphibians. In many cases, sound management requires reliable models built using monitoring data. Historically, monitoring and statistical modeling efforts have focused on estimating occupancy using detection–nondetection data. Spatial occupancy models are useful for studying colonization–extinction dynamics, but richer insights can be gained from estimating abundance and density-dependent demographic rates. We developed an integrated abundance-based metapopulation model of the processes contributing to spatiotemporal variation in patch population density. We fit our model to a combination of detection–nondetection and count data from a 14-yr study of a reintroduced metapopulation of federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). Pond-specific population growth rate was influenced by pond hydroperiod and frog density, such that permanent and semipermanent ponds with low densities of adult frogs experienced the highest annual population growth rates. Immigration rate declined as the distance among ponds increased. After reintroduction in 2003, metapopulation-level abundance increased and appeared to stabilize around 1300 adult frogs (95% CI = 1192–1471) by year 2015. Further, changes in metapopulation abundance were driven mostly by changes in abundance at a few ponds. These high-density populations, which would not have been identifiable with traditional occupancy-based metapopulation models, are likely especially important for species recovery in the area. Abundance-based metapopulation models can be widely applied to inform conservation efforts, by providing higher quality information needed to prioritize habitat patches for management and can be used to make more accurate predictions of metapopulation extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early calls for robust long-term time series of amphibian population data, stemming from discussion following the first World Congress of Herpetology, are now being realized after 25 yr of focused research. Inference from individual studies and locations have contributed to a basic consensus on drivers of amphibian declines. Until recently there were no large-scale syntheses of long-term time series data to test hypotheses about the generality of factors driving population dynamics at broad spatial scales. Through the U.S. Geological Survey's Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, we brought together a group of scientists to elucidate mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America and Europe. We used time series of field data collected across dozens of study areas to make inferences with these combined data using hierarchical and spatial models. We bring together results from four syntheses of these data to summarize our state of knowledge of amphibian declines, identify commonalities that suggest further avenues of study, and suggest a way forward in addressing amphibian declines—by looking beyond specific drivers to how to achieve stability in remaining populations. The common thread of the syntheses is that declines are real but not ubiquitous, and that multiple factors drive declines but the relative importance of each factor varies among species, populations, and regions. We also found that climate is an important driver of amphibian population dynamics. However, the direction and magnitude of sensitivity to change vary among species in ways unlikely to explain overall rates of decline. Thirty years after the initial identification of a major catastrophe for global biodiversity, the scientific community has empirically demonstrated the reality of the problem, identified putative causes, provided evidence of their impacts, invested in broader-scale actions, and attempted meta-analyses to search out global drivers. We suggest an approach that focuses on key demographic rates that may improve amphibian population trends at multiple sites across the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss and degradation are leading causes of biodiversity declines, therefore assessing the capacity of created mitigation wetlands to replace habitat for wildlife has become a management priority. We used single season occupancy models to compare the occurrence of larvae of four species of pond‐breeding amphibians in wetlands created for mitigation, wetlands impacted by road construction, and unimpacted reference wetlands along a highway corridor in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, United States. Created wetlands were shallow and had less aquatic vegetation and surface area than impacted and reference wetlands. Occupancy of barred tiger salamander (Ambystoma mavortium) and boreal chorus frog (Pseudacris maculata) larvae was similar across wetland types, whereas boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) occurred more often in created wetlands than reference and impacted wetlands. However, the majority of created wetlands (>80%) dried partially or completely before amphibian metamorphosis occurred in both years of our study, resulting in heavy mortality of larvae and, we suspect, little to no recruitment. Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris), which require emergent vegetation that is not common in newly created wetlands, occurred commonly in impacted and reference wetlands but were found in only one created wetland. Our results show that shallow created wetlands with little aquatic vegetation may be attractive breeding areas for some amphibians, but may result in high mortality and little recruitment if they fail to hold water for the entire larval period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are critical components of freshwater biodiversity and provide ecosystem services, but human activities have resulted in large‐scale loss of these habitats across the globe. To offset this loss, mitigation wetlands are frequently constructed, but their ability to replicate the functions of natural wetlands remains uncertain. Further, monitoring of mitigation wetlands is limited and often focuses exclusively on vegetation and physical characteristics.Wetland fauna are assumed to be present if suitable habitat restoration is achieved, but this assumption is rarely tested. We used the macroinvertebrate community as a proxy for wetland function to compare recently created mitigation wetlands, natural wetlands impacted but not destroyed by road construction activity, and unimpacted reference wetlands along a highway corridor in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Unlike most other studies of invertebrate communities in created wetlands which have occurred in warm climates, our study area has a cold temperate climate with short growing seasons.We estimated macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness and used linear models to test for effects of wetland design features (wetland age, isolation, depth, vegetation, size, and pH) on invertebrate richness. We also used non‐metric multidimensional scaling to visualise differences in community composition among wetland types and used indicator species analysis to determine which taxa were causing observed differences.Taxonomic richness of macroinvertebrates was lower in created wetlands than impacted or reference wetlands, whereas richness was similar in impacted and reference wetlands. Wetland age was positively correlated with taxonomic richness. The amount of aquatic vegetation in wetlands had the greatest influence on taxonomic richness, so that recently created wetlands with little vegetation had the simplest invertebrate communities. Community composition of invertebrates in created wetlands also differed from community composition in reference and impacted wetlands. Most notably, created wetlands lacked some passive dispersers that were common in other wetland types, although we found no relationship between taxonomic richness and wetland isolation.Overall, constructed wetlands had diminished and altered macroinvertebrate communities relative to reference and impacted wetlands, suggesting that periods in excess of 5 years may be required for wetland mitigation projects in cold temperate climates to attain full functionality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision‐analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host‐pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape‐level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the outgoing editors of the journal and welcomes the new editors. Upcoming editors Paul Bartelt and Tiffany Doan acknowledge editors Gad Perry and Erin Muths for their service towards the publication of the journal. New editors pledge to uphold the journal's tradition and quality to the best of their ability.

Interventions of the host–pathogen dynamics provide strong tests of relationships, yet they are still rarely applied across multiple populations. After American bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana) invaded a wildlife refuge where federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frogs (R. chiricahuensis) were reintroduced 12 years prior, managers launched a landscape‐scale eradication effort to help ensure continued recovery of the native species. We used a before‐after‐control‐impact design and environmental DNA sampling of 19 eradication sites and 18 control sites between fall 2016 and winter 2020–2021 to measure community‐level responses to bullfrog eradication, including for two pathogens. Dynamic occupancy models revealed successful eradication from 94% of treatment sites. Native amphibians did not respond to bullfrog eradication, but the pathogens amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and ranaviruses were coextirpated with bullfrogs. Our spatially replicated experimental approach provides strong evidence that management of invasive species can simultaneously reduce predation and disease risk for imperiled species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors discuss the changes in the publication of the "Journal of Herpetology" through the help of several technologies. It mentions the new web site of the journal on the Allen Press Inc. Pinnacle system, which highlight the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles activities, journal content of particular interest and graduate student opportunities. Also mentioned is the improvements in printing technology and the 2014 front cover featuring a picture of a caecilian.

Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation of imperiled species often requires knowledge of vital rates and population dynamics. However, these can be difficult to estimate for rare species and small populations. This problem is further exacerbated when individuals are not available for detection during some surveys due to limited access, delaying surveys and creating mismatches between the breeding behavior and survey timing. Here we use simulations to explore the impacts of this issue using four hypothetical boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) populations, representing combinations of logistical access (accessible, inaccessible) and breeding behavior (synchronous, asynchronous). We examine the bias and precision of survival and breeding probability estimates generated by survey designs that differ in effort and timing for these populations. Our findings indicate that the logistical access of a site and mismatch between the breeding behavior and survey design can greatly limit the ability to yield accurate and precise estimates of survival and breeding probabilities. Simulations similar to what we have performed can help researchers determine an optimal survey design(s) for their system before initiating sampling efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss and exposure to pesticides are likely primary factors contributing to amphibian decline in agricultural landscapes. Conservation efforts have attempted to restore wetlands lost through landscape modifications to reduce contaminant loads in surface waters and providing quality habitat to wildlife. The benefits of this increased wetland area, perhaps especially for amphibians, may be negated if habitat quality is insufficient to support persistent populations. We examined the presence of pesticides and nutrients in water and sediment as indicators of habitat quality and assessed the bioaccumulation of pesticides in the tissue of two native amphibian species Pseudacris maculata (chorus frogs) and Lithobates pipiens (leopard frogs) at six wetlands (3 restored and 3 reference) in Iowa, USA. Restored wetlands are positioned on the landscape to receive subsurface tile drainage water while reference wetlands receive water from overland run-off and shallow groundwater sources. Concentrations of the pesticides frequently detected in water and sediment samples were not different between wetland types. The median concentration of atrazine in surface water was 0.2 μg/L. Reproductive abnormalities in leopard frogs have been observed in other studies at these concentrations. Nutrient concentrations were higher in the restored wetlands but lower than concentrations thought lethal to frogs. Complex mixtures of pesticides including up to 8 fungicides, some previously unreported in tissue, were detected with concentrations ranging from 0.08 to 1500 μg/kg wet weight. No significant differences in pesticide concentrations were observed between species, although concentrations tended to be higher in leopard frogs compared to chorus frogs, possibly because of differences in life histories. Our results provide information on habitat quality in restored wetlands that will assist state and federal agencies, landowners, and resource managers in identifying and implementing conservation and management actions for these and similar wetlands in agriculturally dominated landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Protected areas are essential for conservation because they limit human influence. • U.S. national parks contribute to amphibian conservation in many other ways. • Parks document trends and provide research into mechanisms of decline. • Parks also use decision science and adaptive management to recover populations. • Collaboration within and outside parks is essential for amphibian conservation. Protected areas like national parks are essential elements of conservation because they limit human influence on the landscape, which protects biodiversity and ecosystem function. The role of national parks in conservation, however, often goes far beyond limiting human influence. The U.S. National Park Service and its system of land units contribute substantively to conservation by providing protected lands where researchers can document trends in species distributions and abundances, examine characteristics important for generating these trends, and identify and implement conservation strategies to preserve biodiversity. We reviewed the contribution of U.S. national parks to amphibian research and conservation and highlight important challenges and findings in several key areas. First, U.S. national parks were instrumental in providing strong support that amphibian declines were real and unlikely to be simply a consequence of habitat loss. Second, research in U.S. national parks provided evidence against certain hypothesized causes of decline, like UV-B radiation, and evidence for others, such as introduced species and disease. However, describing declines and identifying causes contributes to conservation only if it leads to management; importantly, U.S. national parks have implemented many conservation strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in recovering robust amphibian populations. Among these, removal of invasive species, especially fishes; conservation translocations; and habitat creation and enhancement stand out as examples of successful conservation strategies with broad applicability. Successful management for amphibians is additionally complicated by competing mandates and stakeholder interests; for example, past emphasis on increasing visitor enjoyment by introducing fish to formerly fishless lakes had devastating consequences for many amphibians. Other potential conflicts with amphibian conservation include increasing development, increased risk of introductions of disease and exotic species with increased visitation, and road mortality. Decision science and leveraging partnerships have proven to be key components of effective conservation under conflicting mandates in national parks. As resource managers grapple with large-scale drivers that are outside local control, public-private partnerships and adaptive strategies are increasing in importance. U.S. national parks have played an important role in many aspects of identifying and ameliorating the amphibian decline crisis and will continue to be essential for the conservation of amphibians in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sex‐related differences in mortality are widespread in the animal kingdom. Although studies have shown that sex determination systems might drive lifespan evolution, sex chromosome influence on aging rates have not been investigated so far, likely due to an apparent lack of demographic data from clades including both XY (with heterogametic males) and ZW (heterogametic females) systems. Taking advantage of a unique collection of capture–recapture datasets in amphibians, a vertebrate group where XY and ZW systems have repeatedly evolved over the past 200 million years, we examined whether sex heterogamy can predict sex differences in aging rates and lifespans. We showed that the strength and direction of sex differences in aging rates (and not lifespan) differ between XY and ZW systems. Sex‐specific variation in aging rates was moderate within each system, but aging rates tended to be consistently higher in the heterogametic sex. This led to small but detectable effects of sex chromosome system on sex differences in aging rates in our models. Although preliminary, our results suggest that exposed recessive deleterious mutations on the X/Z chromosome (the "unguarded X/Z effect") or repeat‐rich Y/W chromosome (the "toxic Y/W effect") could accelerate aging in the heterogametic sex in some vertebrate clades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many aquatic species in the arid USA-Mexico borderlands region are imperiled, but limited information on distributions and threats often hinders management. To provide information on the distribution of the Western Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium), including the USA-federally endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), we used traditional (seines, dip-nets) and modern (environmental DNA [eDNA]) methods to sample 91 waterbodies in northern Sonora, Mexico, during 2015-2018. The endemic Sonoran Tiger Salamander is threatened by introgressive hybridization and potential replacement by another sub-species of the Western Tiger Salamander, the non-native Barred Tiger Salamander (A. m. mavortium). Based on occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection, eDNA sampling provided a similar detection probability (0.82 [95% CI: 0.56-0.94]) as seining (0.83 [0.46-0.96]) and much higher detection than dip-netting (0.09 [0.02-0.23]). Volume of water filtered had little effect on detection, possibly because turbid sites had greater densities of salamanders. Salamanders were estimated to occur at 51 sites in 3 river drainages in Sonora. These results indicate tiger salamanders are much more widespread in northern Sonora than previously documented, perhaps aided by changes in land and water management practices. However, because the two subspecies of salamanders cannot be reliably distinguished based on morphology or eDNA methods that are based on mitochondrial DNA, we are uncertain if we detected only native genotypes or if we documented recent invasion of the area by the non-native sub-species. Thus, there is an urgent need for methods to reliably distinguish the subspecies so managers can identify appropriate interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Amphibians occupy created wetlands at lower rates than reference wetlands. • Amphibians occupy impacted and reference wetlands at similar rates. • Amphibian occupancy changes over time in created wetlands. • Wetland design is important in mitigation wetland creation. Wetland creation is a common practice to mitigate for the loss of natural wetlands. However, there is still uncertainty about how effectively created wetlands replace habitat provided by natural wetlands. This uncertainty is due in part because post-construction monitoring of biological communities, and vertebrates especially, is rare and typically short-term (<5 years). We estimated occupancy of 4 amphibian species in 8 created mitigation wetlands, 7 impacted wetlands, and 7 reference wetlands in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Wyoming, USA. Mitigation wetlands were created to replace wetland habitat that was lost during road construction and ranged in age from 1 to 10 years when sampled. Impacted wetlands were natural wetlands partially filled by road construction and were adjacent to a highway. We sampled for amphibian larvae during 6 summers from 2013 to 2020 and used multi-species occupancy models that estimated detection and occupancy of each of 4 amphibian species to determine how amphibian responses changed over time, especially in mitigation wetlands. Occupancy did not differ between impacted and reference wetlands for any of the 4 amphibian species. Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) were most common (although briefly) in created wetlands, and occupancy of Columbia Spotted Frogs (Rana luteiventris), Western Tiger Salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium), and Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata) was lower in created wetlands than in impacted or reference wetlands. Individual wetland area was positively associated with occupancy for all 4 species and wetland vegetation cover was positively associated with Boreal Chorus Frog and Columbia Spotted Frog occupancy; these results emphasize the importance of design characteristics when planning mitigation wetlands. The link between wetland age and occupancy was complex and included threshold and quadratic relationships for three of the four species, but only Boreal Chorus Frog occupancy was still increasing slowly at the end of our study. Our results indicate created wetlands did not attain the suitability of impacted and natural wetlands for local amphibians, even several years after construction. The complex relationships between wetland age and species-specific occupancy illustrate the importance of long-term monitoring in describing population responses to the construction of wetlands as mitigation for wetland loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Marking methods for identification differ in handling time (a proxy for stress). • Cumulative handling time depends on species and study characteristics. • Species survival, capture probabilities,and study design: Important considerations. • Some amphibians incur less handling time using PIT tags vs photography. • Shiny App calculates handling time using species- and study-specific parameters. Individual identification is required for long-term investigations that examine population-level changes in survival or abundance, and mechanisms associated with these changes in wild populations. Such identification generally requires the application of a unique mark, or the documentation of characteristics distinctive to each individual animal. To minimize impacts to often declining populations, scientific and ethical concerns encourage marking strategies that minimize handling time (i.e., stress) for captured individuals. We examined the relative efficacy of passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagging and photo-identification to identify individual Boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) in field and indoor settings. We evaluated whether initial handling time was influenced by identification method (PIT-tag or photo-identification) or environment (field or indoor) and assessed the applicability of each method in long-term monitoring programs. Initial handling time was higher for PIT-tagging than photo-identification and higher in the field than in an indoor environment; however, handling time for previously PIT-tagged individuals was greatly reduced such that photo-identification led to > 5.5 times more handling time than PIT-tagging over the course of a toad's lifetime. Investigators must determine the trade-off between initial and subsequent handling times to minimize the expected (mean) cumulative handling time for an individual over the course of a study. Cumulative handling time is a function of the study design and the species' survival and detection probabilities. We developed a Shiny Application to allow investigators to determine the identification method that minimizes handling time for their own study system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing frequency and severity of drought may exacerbate ongoing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought impacts. We synthesized a decade (2009–2019) of regional-scale amphibian monitoring data (2273 surveys, 233 ponds, and seven species) from across California's Bay Area and used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate trends and drivers of species occupancy. An extreme drought during the study period resulted in substantial habitat loss, with 51% of ponds drying in the worst year of drought, compared to <20% in pre-drought years. Nearly every species exhibited reduced breeding activity during the drought, with the occupancy of some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by >25%. Invasive fishes and bullfrogs were also associated with reduced amphibian occupancy, and these taxa were locally extirpated from numerous sites during drought, without subsequent recovery– suggesting that drought may present an opportunity to remove invaders. Despite a historic, multi-year drought, native amphibians rebounded quickly to pre-drought occupancy levels, demonstrating evidence of resilience. Permanent waterbodies supported higher persistence of native species during drought years than did temporary waterbodies, and we therefore highlight the value of hydroperiod diversity in promoting amphibian stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For species with variable phenology, it is often challenging to produce reliable estimates of population dynamics or changes in occupancy. The Arizona Toad (Anaxyrus microscaphus) is a southwestern USA endemic that has been petitioned for legal protection, but status assessments are limited by a lack of information on population trends. Also, timing and consistency of Arizona Toad breeding varies greatly, making it difficult to predict optimal survey times or effort required for detection. To help fill these information gaps, we conducted breeding season call surveys during 2013-2016 and 2019 at 86 historically occupied sites and 59 control sites across the species' range in New Mexico. We estimated variation in mean dates of arrival and departure from breeding sites, changes in occupancy, and site-level extinction since 1959 with recently developed multi-season staggered-entry models, which relax the within-season closure assumption common to most occupancy models. Optimal timing of surveys in our study areas was approximately 5-30 March. Averaged across years, estimated probability of occupancy was 0.58 (SE = 0.09) for historical sites and 0.19 (SE = 0.08) for control sites. Occupancy increased from 2013 through 2019. Notably, even though observer error was trivial, annual detection probabilities varied from 0.23 to 0.75 and declined during the study; this means naïve occupancy values would have been misleading, indicating apparent declines in toad occupancy. Occupancy was lowest during the first year of the study, possibly due to changes in stream flows and conditions inmany waterbodies following extended drought and recent wildfires. Although within-season closure was violated by variable calling phenology, simple multi-season models provided nearly identical estimates as staggered-entry models. Surprisingly, extinction probability was unrelated to the number of years since the first or last record at historically occupied sites. Collectively, our results suggest a lack of large, recent declines in occupancy by Arizona Toads in New Mexico, but we still lack population information from most of the species' range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First‐order dynamic occupancy models (FODOMs) are a class of state‐space model in which the true state (occurrence) is observed imperfectly. An important assumption of FODOMs is that site dynamics only depend on the current state and that variations in dynamic processes are adequately captured with covariates or random effects. However, it is often difficult to understand and/or measure the covariates that generate ecological data, which are typically spatiotemporally correlated. Consequently, the non‐independent error structure of correlated data causes underestimation of parameter uncertainty and poor ecological inference. Here, we extend the FODOM framework with a second‐order Markov process to accommodate site memory when covariates are not available. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inference about site occupancy, colonization, extinction, turnover, and detection probabilities. We present a series of simulations to illustrate the data requirements and model performance. We then applied our modeling framework to 13 yr of data from an amphibian community in southern Arizona, USA. In this analysis, we found residual temporal autocorrelation of population processes for most species, even after accounting for long‐term drought dynamics. Our approach represents a valuable advance in obtaining inference on population dynamics, especially as they relate to metapopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When facing an emerging infectious disease of conservation concern, we often have little information on the nature of the host‐parasite interaction to inform management decisions. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the life‐history strategies of host species can be predictive of individual‐ and population‐level responses to infectious disease, even without detailed knowledge on the specifics of the host‐parasite interaction. Here, we argue that a deeper integration of life‐history theory into disease ecology is timely and necessary to improve our capacity to understand, predict and mitigate the impact of endemic and emerging infectious diseases in wild populations. Using wild vertebrates as an example, we show that host life‐history characteristics influence host responses to parasitism at different levels of organisation, from individuals to communities. We also highlight knowledge gaps and future directions for the study of life‐history and host responses to parasitism. We conclude by illustrating how this theoretical insight can inform the monitoring and control of infectious diseases in wildlife. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]