1. Reevaluation of Total‐Column Ozone Trends and of the Effective Radiative Forcing of Ozone‐Depleting Substances.
- Author
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Morgenstern, Olaf, Frith, Stacey M., Bodeker, Gregory E., Fioletov, Vitali, and van der A, Ronald J.
- Subjects
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OZONE-depleting substances , *RADIATIVE forcing , *OZONE layer depletion , *OZONE , *OZONE generators , *OZONE layer - Abstract
We evaluate total‐column ozone trends using a piecewise linear regression approach and maximizing usage of five gridded total‐column ozone data sets. The new approach yields more consistent estimates of observed ozone loss during 1979–2000, when halocarbon concentrations were increasing, and consequently, using CMIP6 simulations, an increased effective radiative forcing estimate of ozone‐depleting substances with a substantially reduced uncertainty range versus an earlier evaluation. At more than 84% confidence, it is now larger than zero and compares more favorably with three previous evaluations. We furthermore find significant positive post‐1997 global‐ and Southern‐Hemisphere‐mean trends, respectively, in these five data sets. For the extrapolar region (60°S–60°N) and for the Northern Hemisphere, the assessment whether there is a positive trend is inconclusive and depends on which observational data set is included in the calculation. Plain Language Summary: Changes in overhead ozone amounts reflect the impact of the Montreal Protocol, designed to protect the ozone layer, and several other influences. Here, we assess five different ozone data sets using satellite and ground‐based observations as well as fields generated by present‐generation climate models. For the period 1979–2000, during which stratospheric ozone depletion got established, we find good agreement for the whole globe and for selected subregions across the observational data sets. For 1997–2020, in the global and Southern Hemisphere means, we find significant, positive ozone trends. For a region excluding both poles and for the Northern Hemisphere, the uncertainty ranges still include zero. Using observational and modeled ozone trends for 1979–2000, we recalculate the impact of ozone‐depleting substances, accounting for ozone depletion, on the Earth' radiation balance. We find a slightly larger net impact than a previous evaluation, which within the uncertainty bounds is much more likely to be positive and is more consistent with three other literature references. Key Points: We evaluate total‐column ozone trends for 1979–2000 and 1997–2020For 1997–2020, we find significant global‐ and Southern‐Hemisphere‐mean positive trendsThe effective radiative forcing of ozone‐depleting substances is now more consistent with three previous evaluations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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