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Clinicians often have to make treatment decisions based on the likelihood that an individual patient will benefit. In this article we consider the relevance of relative and absolute risk reductions, and draw attention to the importance of expressing the results of trials and subgroup analyses in terms of absolute risk. We describe the limitations of univariate subgroup analysis in situations in which there are several determinants of treatment effect, and review the potential for targeting treatments with risk models, especially when benefit is probably going to be dependent on the absolute risk of adverse outcomes with or without treatment. The ability to systematically take into account the characteristics of an individual patient and their interactions, to consider the risks and benefits of interventions separately if needed, and to provide patients with personalised estimates of their likelihood of benefit is shown using the example of endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. To compare the cumulative use and cost of hospital inpatient services to 5 years of age by individuals divided into 4 subgroups by gestational age at birth. Design. Costs applied to the hospital service utilization profile of each infant born in 2 areas covered by the Oxford Record Linkage Study during 1970-1993. Setting. Oxfordshire and West Berkshire, southern United Kingdom. Subjects. 239 694 individuals divided into 4 sub-groups by gestational age at birth: <28 weeks, 28 to 31 weeks, 32 to 36 weeks, >37 weeks. Main Outcome Measures. Number and duration of hospital admissions during the first 5 years of life and costs, expressed in £ sterling and valued at 1998-1999 prices, of hospital inpatient services. Results. The total duration of hospital admissions for infants born at <28 and at 28 to 31 gestational weeks was 85 and 16 times that for term infants, respectively, once duration of life had been taken into account. Hospital inpatient service costs were significantly higher for pre-term infants than for term infants, with the cost differences persisting throughout infancy and early and mid-childhood. Over the first 5 years of life, the adjusted mean cost difference was estimated at £14 614 (US $22 798) when infants born at <28 weeks gestational age were compared with term infants and &pound11 958 (US $18 654) when infants born at 28 to 31 weeks gestational age were compared with term infants. Independent contributions to total cost came from being born: small for gestational age, a multiple, during the 1970s and early 1980s, to a woman of extreme maternal age or who was hospitalized antenatally, and from experiencing extended survival or childhood disease. However, preterm birth remained the strongest predictor of high cost.... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lifelong antiplatelet treatment is recommended after ischaemic vascular events, on the basis of trials done mainly in patients younger than 75 years. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a serious complication, but had low case fatality in trials of aspirin and is not generally thought to cause long-term disability. Consequently, although co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) reduces upper gastrointestinal bleeds by 70-90%, uptake is low and guidelines are conflicting. We aimed to assess the risk, time course, and outcomes of bleeding on antiplatelet treatment for secondary prevention in patients of all ages.Methods: We did a prospective population-based cohort study in patients with a first transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, or myocardial infarction treated with antiplatelet drugs (mainly aspirin based, without routine PPI use) after the event in the Oxford Vascular Study from 2002 to 2012, with follow-up until 2013. We determined type, severity, outcome (disability or death), and time course of bleeding requiring medical attention by face-to-face follow-up for 10 years. We estimated age-specific numbers needed to treat (NNT) to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding with routine PPI co-prescription on the basis of Kaplan-Meier risk estimates and relative risk reduction estimates from previous trials.Findings: 3166 patients (1582 [50%] aged ≥75 years) had 405 first bleeding events (n=218 gastrointestinal, n=45 intracranial, and n=142 other) during 13 509 patient-years of follow-up. Of the 314 patients (78%) with bleeds admitted to hospital, 117 (37%) were missed by administrative coding. Risk of non-major bleeding was unrelated to age, but major bleeding increased steeply with age (≥75 years hazard ratio [HR] 3·10, 95% CI 2·27-4·24; p<0·0001), particularly for fatal bleeds (5·53, 2·65-11·54; p<0·0001), and was sustained during long-term follow-up. The same was true of major upper gastrointestinal bleeds (≥75 years HR 4·13, 2·60-6·57; p<0·0001), particularly if disabling or fatal (10·26, 4·37-24·13; p<0·0001). At age 75 years or older, major upper gastrointestinal bleeds were mostly disabling or fatal (45 [62%] of 73 patients vs 101 [47%] of 213 patients with recurrent ischaemic stroke), and outnumbered disabling or fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (n=45 vs n=18), with an absolute risk of 9·15 (95% CI 6·67-12·24) per 1000 patient-years. The estimated NNT for routine PPI use to prevent one disabling or fatal upper gastrointestinal bleed over 5 years fell from 338 for individuals younger than 65 years, to 25 for individuals aged 85 years or older.Interpretation: In patients receiving aspirin-based antiplatelet treatment without routine PPI use, the long-term risk of major bleeding is higher and more sustained in older patients in practice than in the younger patients in previous trials, with a substantial risk of disabling or fatal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Given that half of the major bleeds in patients aged 75 years or older were upper gastrointestinal, the estimated NNT for routine PPI use to prevent such bleeds is low, and co-prescription should be encouraged.Funding: Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, British Heart Foundation, Dunhill Medical Trust, National Institute of Health Research (NIHR), and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study which investigated the effects of antihypertensive-drug class on interindividual variation in blood pressure and risk of stroke. The researchers identified randomised controlled trials (RCT) from published systematic reviews and searched Medline and Cochrane databases from 1950 to first week of July 2009. Poor reporting of interindividual variation in blood pressure in RCT of antihypertensive drugs was found. Several issues that need to be discussed are also cited, including the low rate of reporting of blood pressure.

Abstract: Although the health sequelae of smoking during pregnancy are well documented, relatively little is known about its long-term economic implications. The objective of this study was to analyse individual-level data on maternal smoking behaviour and sociodemographic, perinatal and resource utilisation variables in order to estimate the association between smoking during pregnancy and hospital inpatient service utilisation and costs through the first 5 years of the infant''s life. Data from the Oxford Record Linkage Study, a collection of birth registrations, death certificates and statistical abstracts of hospital inpatient and day case admissions formed the basis of the investigation. The study population comprised all infants born to women who both lived and delivered in Oxfordshire or West Berkshire during the period 1 January 1980–31 December 1989 (). The cost of each hospital admission, including the initial birth admission, was estimated by multiplying the length of stay by the per diem cost of the respective specialty (£ 1998–1999 sterling). The effect of maternal smoking behaviour on cumulative 5-year hospital inpatient service utilisation and costs was analysed in a series of multivariate analyses, taking account of confounding clinical and sociodemographic factors. Infants born to women who reported smoking during pregnancy were hospitalised for a significantly greater number of days than infants born to women who had either never smoked or had smoked in the past (). Over the first 5 years of life, the adjusted mean cost difference was estimated at £462 (95%CI: £353–£571) when infants born to women who smoked at least 20 cigarettes per day were compared to infants of non-smoking mothers, and £307 (95%CI: £221–£394) when infants born to women who smoked 10–19 cigarettes per day were compared to infants of non-smoking mothers (). The results of this study should add an economic dimension to the importance of providing smoking cessation services for pregnant women. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: A one-dose-fits-all approach to use of aspirin has yielded only modest benefits in long-term prevention of cardiovascular events, possibly due to underdosing in patients of large body size and excess dosing in patients of small body size, which might also affect other outcomes.Methods: Using individual patient data, we analysed the modifying effects of bodyweight (10 kg bands) and height (10 cm bands) on the effects of low doses (≤100 mg) and higher doses (300-325 mg or ≥500 mg) of aspirin in randomised trials of aspirin in primary prevention of cardiovascular events. We stratified the findings by age, sex, and vascular risk factors, and validated them in trials of aspirin in secondary prevention of stroke. Additionally, we assessed whether any weight or height dependence was evident for the effect of aspirin on 20-year risk of colorectal cancer or any in-trial cancer.Results: Among ten eligible trials of aspirin in primary prevention (including 117 279 participants), bodyweight varied four-fold and trial median weight ranged from 60·0 kg to 81·2 kg (p<0·0001). The ability of 75-100 mg aspirin to reduce cardiovascular events decreased with increasing weight (pinteraction=0·0072), with benefit seen in people weighing 50-69 kg (hazard ratio [HR] 0·75 [95% CI 0·65-0·85]) but not in those weighing 70 kg or more (0·95 [0·86-1·04]; 1·09 [0·93-1·29] for vascular death). Furthermore, the case fatality of a first cardiovascular event was increased by low-dose aspirin in people weighing 70 kg or more (odds ratio 1·33 [95% CI 1·08-1·64], p=0·0082). Higher doses of aspirin (≥325 mg) had the opposite interaction with bodyweight (difference pinteraction=0·0013), reducing cardiovascular events only at higher weight (pinteraction=0·017). Findings were similar in men and women, in people with diabetes, in trials of aspirin in secondary prevention, and in relation to height (pinteraction=0·0025 for cardiovascular events). Aspirin-mediated reductions in long-term risk of colorectal cancer were also weight dependent (pinteraction=0·038). Stratification by body size also revealed harms due to excess dosing: risk of sudden death was increased by aspirin in people at low weight for dose (pinteraction=0·0018) and risk of all-cause death was increased in people weighing less than 50 kg who were receiving 75-100 mg aspirin (HR 1·52 [95% CI 1·04-2·21], p=0·031). In participants aged 70 years or older, the 3-year risk of cancer was also increased by aspirin (1·20 [1·03-1·47], p=0·02), particularly in those weighing less than 70 kg (1·31 [1·07-1·61], p=0·009) and consequently in women (1·44 [1·11-1·87], p=0·0069).Interpretation: Low doses of aspirin (75-100 mg) were only effective in preventing vascular events in patients weighing less than 70 kg, and had no benefit in the 80% of men and nearly 50% of all women weighing 70 kg or more. By contrast, higher doses of aspirin were only effective in patients weighing 70 kg or more. Given that aspirin's effects on other outcomes, including cancer, also showed interactions with body size, a one-dose-fits-all approach to aspirin is unlikely to be optimal, and a more tailored strategy is required.Funding: Wellcome Trust and National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aspirin is recommended for secondary prevention after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or ischaemic stroke on the basis of trials showing a 13% reduction in long-term risk of recurrent stroke. However, the risk of major stroke is very high for only the first few days after TIA and minor ischaemic stroke, and observational studies show substantially greater benefits of early medical treatment in the acute phase than do longer-term trials. We hypothesised that the short-term benefits of early aspirin have been underestimated.Methods: Pooling the individual patient data from all randomised trials of aspirin versus control in secondary prevention after TIA or ischaemic stroke, we studied the effects of aspirin on the risk and severity of recurrent stroke, stratified by the following time periods: less than 6 weeks, 6-12 weeks, and more than 12 weeks after randomisation. We compared the severity of early recurrent strokes between treatment groups with shift analysis of modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score. To understand possible mechanisms of action, we also studied the time course of the interaction between effects of aspirin and dipyridamole in secondary prevention of stroke. In a further analysis we pooled data from trials of aspirin versus control in which patients were randomised less than 48 h after major acute stroke, stratified by severity of baseline neurological deficit, to establish the very early time course of the effect of aspirin on risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke and how this differs by severity at baseline.Findings: We pooled data for 15,778 participants from 12 trials of aspirin versus control in secondary prevention. Aspirin reduced the 6 week risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke by about 60% (84 of 8452 participants in the aspirin group had an ischaemic stroke vs 175 of 7326; hazard ratio [HR] 0·42, 95% CI 0·32-0·55, p<0·0001) and disabling or fatal ischaemic stroke by about 70% (36 of 8452 vs 110 of 7326; 0·29, 0·20-0·42, p<0·0001), with greatest benefit noted in patients presenting with TIA or minor stroke (at 0-2 weeks, two of 6691 participants in the aspirin group with TIA or minor stroke had a disabling or fatal ischaemic stroke vs 23 of 5726 in the control group, HR 0·07, 95% CI 0·02-0·31, p=0·0004; at 0-6 weeks, 14 vs 60 participants, 0·19, 0·11-0·34, p<0·0001). The effect of aspirin on early recurrent ischaemic stroke was due partly to a substantial reduction in severity (mRS shift analysis odds ratio [OR] 0·42, 0·26-0·70, p=0·0007). These effects were independent of dose, patient characteristics, or aetiology of TIA or stroke. Some further reduction in risk of ischaemic stroke accrued for aspirin only versus control from 6-12 weeks, but there was no benefit after 12 weeks (stroke risk OR 0·97, 0·84-1·12, p=0·67; severity mRS shift OR 1·00, 0·77-1·29, p=0·97). By contrast, dipyridamole plus aspirin versus aspirin alone had no effect on risk or severity of recurrent ischaemic stroke within 12 weeks (OR 0·90, 95% CI 0·65-1·25, p=0·53; mRS shift OR 0·90, 0·37-1·72, p=0·99), but dipyridamole did reduce risk thereafter (0·76, 0·63-0·92, p=0·005), particularly of disabling or fatal ischaemic stroke (0·64, 0·49-0·84, p=0·0010). We pooled data for 40,531 participants from three trials of aspirin versus control in major acute stroke. The reduction in risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke at 14 days was most evident in patients with less severe baseline deficits, and was substantial by the second day after starting treatment (2-3 day HR 0·37, 95% CI 0·25-0·57, p<0·0001).Interpretation: Our findings confirm that medical treatment substantially reduces the risk of early recurrent stroke after TIA and minor stroke and identify aspirin as the key intervention. The considerable early benefit from aspirin warrants public education about self-administration after possible TIA. The previously unrecognised effect of aspirin on severity of early recurrent stroke, the diminishing benefit with longer-term use, and the contrasting time course of effects of dipyridamole have implications for understanding mechanisms of action.Funding: Wellcome Trust, the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: reliable delirium risk stratification will aid recognition, anticipation and prevention and will facilitate targeting of resources in clinical practice as well as identification of at-risk patients for research. Delirium risk scores have been derived for acute medicine, but none has been prospectively validated in external cohorts. We therefore aimed to determine the reliability of externally derived risk scores in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. Methods: consecutive patients aged ≥65 over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The reliability of existing delirium risk scores derived in acute medicine cohorts and simplified for use in routine clinical practice (USA, n = 2; Spain, n= 1; Indonesia, n= 1) was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Delirium was defined as prevalent (on admission), incident (occurring during admission) and any (prevalent + incident) delirium. Results: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), existing delirium risk scores had AUCs for delirium similar to those reported in their original internal validations ranging from 0.69 to 0.76 for any delirium and 0.73 to 0.83 for incident delirium. All scores performed better than chance but no one score was clearly superior. Conclusions: externally derived delirium risk scores performed well in our independent acute medicine population with reliability unaffected by simplification and might therefore facilitate targeting of multicomponent interventions in routine clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Background A third of transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) and ischaemic strokes are of undetermined cause (ie, cryptogenic), potentially undermining secondary prevention. If these events are due to occult atheroma, the risk-factor profile and coronary prognosis should resemble that of overt large artery events. If they have a cardioembolic cause, the risk of future cardioembolic events should be increased. We aimed to assess the burden, outcome, risk factors, and long-term prognosis of cryptogenic TIA and stroke. Methods In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, among patients with a first TIA or ischaemic stroke from April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2014, we compared cryptogenic events versus other causative subtypes according to the TOAST classification. We compared markers of atherosclerosis (ie, risk factors, coronary and peripheral arterial disease, asymptomatic carotid stenosis, and 10-year risk of acute coronary events) and of cardioembolism (ie, risk of cardioembolic stroke, systemic emboli, and new atrial fibrillation [AF] during follow-up, and minor-risk echocardiographic abnormalities and subclinical paroxysmal AF at baseline in patients with index events between 2010 and 2014). Findings Among 2555 patients, 812 (32%) had cryptogenic events (incidence of cryptogenic stroke 0·36 per 1000 population per year, 95% CI 0·23–0·49). Death or dependency at 6 months was similar after cryptogenic stroke compared with non-cardioembolic stroke (23% vs 27% for large artery and small vessel subtypes combined; p=0·26) as was the 10-year risk of recurrence (32% vs 27%; p=0·91). However, the cryptogenic group had fewer atherosclerotic risk factors than the large artery disease (p<0·0001), small vessel disease (p=0·001), and cardioembolic (p=0·008) groups. Compared with patients with large artery events, those with cryptogenic events had less hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·41, 95% CI 0·30–0·56; p<0·0001), diabetes (0·62, 0·43–0·90; p=0·01), peripheral vascular disease (0·27, 0·17–0·45; p<0·0001), hypercholesterolaemia (0·53, 0·40–0·70; p<0·0001), and history of smoking (0·68, 0·51–0·92; p=0·01), and compared with small vessel and cardioembolic subtypes, they had no excess risk of asymptomatic carotid disease (adjusted OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·37–1·11; p=0·11) or acute coronary events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·49–1·18; p=0·22) during follow-up. Compared with large artery and small vessel subtypes combined, patients with cryptogenic events also had no excess of minor-risk echocardiographic abnormalities (cryptogenic 37% vs 45%; p=0·18) or paroxysmal AF (6% vs 10%; p=0·17) at baseline or of new AF (adjusted HR 1·23, 0·78–1·95; p=0·37) or presumed cardioembolic events (1·16, 0·62–2·17; p=0·64) during follow-up. Interpretation The clinical burden of cryptogenic TIA and stroke is substantial. Although stroke recurrence rates are comparable with other subtypes, cryptogenic events have the fewest atherosclerotic markers and no excess of cardioembolic markers. Funding Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Dunhill Medical Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is >10% at age ≥80 years, but the impact of population aging on rates of AF-related ischemic events is uncertain.Methods and Results: We studied age-specific incidence, outcome, and cost of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002 to 2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC). We determined time trends in incidence of AF-related stroke in comparison with a sister study in 1981 to 1986, extrapolated numbers to the UK population and projected future numbers. Of 3096 acute cerebral or peripheral vascular events in the 92 728 study population, 383 incident ischemic strokes and 71 systemic emboli were related to AF, of which 272 (59.9%) occurred at ≥80 years. Of 597 fatal or disabling incident ischemic strokes, 262 (43.9%) were AF-related. Numbers of AF-related ischemic strokes at age ≥80 years increased nearly 3-fold from 1981-1986 to 2002-2012 (extrapolated to the United Kingdom: 6621 to 18 176 per year), due partly to increased age-specific incidence (relative rate 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.31-1.77, P=0.001), with potentially preventable AF-related events at age ≥80 years costing the United Kingdom £374 million per year. At current incidence rates, numbers of AF-related embolic events at age ≥80 years will treble again by 2050 (72 974/year), with 83.5% of all events occurring in this age group.Conclusions: Numbers of AF-related incident ischemic strokes at age ≥80 years have trebled over the last 25 years, despite the introduction of anticoagulants, and are projected to treble again by 2050, along with the numbers of systemic emboli. Improved prevention in older people with AF should be a major public health priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background--Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is >10% at age ≥80 years, but the impact of population aging on rates of AF-related ischemic events is uncertain. Methods and Results--We studied age-specific incidence, outcome, and cost of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002 to 2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC). We determined time trends in incidence of AF-related stroke in comparison with a sister study in 1981 to 1986, extrapolated numbers to the UK population and projected future numbers. Of 3096 acute cerebral or peripheral vascular events in the 92728 study population, 383 incident ischemic strokes and 71 systemic emboli were related to AF, of which 272 (59.9%) occurred at ≥80 years. Of 597 fatal or disabling incident ischemic strokes, 262 (43.9%) were AF-related. Numbers of AF-related ischemic strokes at age >80 years increased nearly 3-fold from 1981-1986 to 2002-2012 (extrapolated to the United Kingdom: 6621 to 18176 per year), due partly to increased age-specific incidence (relative rate 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.31-1.77, P=0.001), with potentially preventable AF-related events at age ≥80 years costing the United Kingdom £374 million per year. At current incidence rates, numbers of AF-related embolic events at age ≥80 years will treble again by 2050 (72974/year), with 83.5% of all events occurring in this age group. Conclusions--Numbers of AF-related incident ischemic strokes at age ≥80 years have trebled over the last 25 years, despite the introduction of anticoagulants, and are projected to treble again by 2050, along with the numbers of systemic emboli. Improved prevention in older people with AF should be a major public health priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: It is often assumed that blood pressure increases acutely after major stroke, resulting in so-called post-stroke hypertension. In view of evidence that the risks and benefits of blood pressure-lowering treatment in acute stroke might differ between patients with major ischaemic stroke and those with primary intracerebral haemorrhage, we compared acute-phase and premorbid blood pressure levels in these two disorders. Methods: In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, we recruited all patients presenting with stroke between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2012. We compared all acute-phase post-event blood pressure readings with premorbid readings from 10-year primary care records in all patients with acute major ischaemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale >3) versus those with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. Findings: Of 653 consecutive eligible patients, premorbid and acute-phase blood pressure readings were available for 636 (97%) individuals. Premorbid blood pressure (total readings 13 244) had been measured on a median of 17 separate occasions per patient (IQR 8–31). In patients with ischaemic stroke, the first acute-phase systolic blood pressure was much lower than after intracerebral haemorrhage (158·5 mm Hg [SD 30·1] vs 189·8 mm Hg [38·5], p<0·0001; for patients not on antihypertensive treatment 159·2 mm Hg [27·8] vs 193·4 mm Hg [37·4], p<0·0001), was little higher than premorbid levels (increase of 10·6 mm Hg vs 10-year mean premorbid level), and decreased only slightly during the first 24 h (mean decrease from <90 min to 24 h 13·6 mm Hg). By contrast with findings in ischaemic stroke, the mean first systolic blood pressure after intracerebral haemorrhage was substantially higher than premorbid levels (mean increase of 40·7 mm Hg, p<0·0001) and fell substantially in the first 24 h (mean decrease of 41·1 mm Hg; p=0·0007 for difference from decrease in ischaemic stroke). Mean systolic blood pressure also increased steeply in the days and weeks before intracerebral haemorrhage (regression p<0·0001) but not before ischaemic stroke. Consequently, the first acute-phase blood pressure reading after primary intracerebral haemorrhage was more likely than after ischaemic stroke to be the highest ever recorded (OR 3·4, 95% CI 2·3–5·2, p<0·0001). In patients with intracerebral haemorrhage seen within 90 min, the highest systolic blood pressure within 3 h of onset was 50 mm Hg higher, on average, than the maximum premorbid level whereas that after ischaemic stroke was 5·2 mm Hg lower (p<0·0001). Interpretation: Our findings suggest that systolic blood pressure is substantially raised compared with usual premorbid levels after intracerebral haemorrhage, whereas acute-phase systolic blood pressure after major ischaemic stroke is much closer to the accustomed long-term premorbid level, providing a potential explanation for why the risks and benefits of lowering blood pressure acutely after stroke might be expected to differ. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is at least as prevalent as dementia after transient ischaemic attack (TIA)/stroke and is increasingly recognised as an important outcome in observational studies and randomised trials. However, there is no consensus on how impairment should be defined, and numerous different criteria exist. Previous studies have shown that different criteria for cognitive impairment impact on prevalence rates in epidemiological studies. However, there are few data on how operational differences within established criteria (e.g. Petersen-MCI) affect measured impairment rates and the performance of short cognitive tests such as the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), particularly in cerebrovascular disease. We therefore evaluated the effect of different operational definitions on measured rates of Petersen-MCI and on reliability of short cognitive tests in patients with TIA and stroke. Methods: Consecutive patients underwent the MMSE, MoCA and neuropsychological battery ≥1 year after TIA or stroke in a population-based study. MCI was defined using the Petersen method and subclassified as single or multiple domain, both with (original) and without (modified) subjective memory impairment. Different cut-offs (>1, >1.5 and >2 standard deviations, SD) on a given test relative to published norms were compared together with use of single versus multiple tests to define domain impairment. Results: 91 non-demented subjects completed neuropsychological testing (mean age ± SD 69.7 ± 11.6 years, 54 male, 49 stroke) at a mean of 3.1 ± 1.9 years after the index event. Rates of cognitive impairment ranged from 14/91 (15%) for MCI-original at >2 SD cut-off to 61/91 (67%) MCI-modified at >1 SD cut-off, and the proportion of MCI that was multiple domain varied, e.g. 24/46 (52%) versus only 5/27 (20%) at 1 versus 2 SD cut-off for MCI-modified. Requirement for subjective memory complaint approximately halved estimates [e.g. 17 (19%) vs. 39 (43%) for MCI at 1.5 SD cut-off, single test definition], whereas use of multiple tests versus a single test to define a cognitive domain had less impact. In general, diagnostic accuracy was higher, and optimal cut-offs lower, on MMSE and MoCA for multiple-domain versus single-domain MCI, but the MoCA appeared superior for detecting MCI-modified, whereas the MMSE performed well in detecting MCI-original. Conclusion: Even within established criteria for MCI, differences in operational methodology result in 4-fold variation in MCI estimates. Optimal MMSE and MoCA cut-offs are lower, and reliability more similar, when criteria for MCI are more stringent. Our findings have implications for sample size and adjusted relative risk calculations in randomised trials and for comparisons between studies. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is associated with increased risk of cognitive decline when compared with controls, but case:control studies are subject to selection bias. We therefore compared cognitive outcomes in ACS with transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke, diseases with similar risk factor burden generally considered to be at high risk of cognitive decline. Design Prospective population based cohort study Setting Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC) carried out within a defined population of 91 000 in Oxfordshire, UK. Patients 614 in total: 216 ACS, 182 TIA, 216 minor (non-disabling) stroke. Outcome measures Mini-Mental-State-Examination (MMSE), Telephone Interview for Cognitive Statusmodified (TICSm), and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) at 1 and 5 years. Results Overall risk factor burden was similar across groups but ACS patients had more smoking (27% vs 14%, p<0.001) and less hypertension (45% vs 53%, p<0.01) and atrial fibrillation (6% vs 14%, p<0.001). Cognitive outcomes were worse at 1 year in ACS versus TIA patients: mean±SD MMSE 26.6±2.7 vs 27.6±2.5, p<0.0001; OR=2.14, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.13 for moderate/ severe cognitive impairment (MMSE <24) with a similar trend at 5 years, and ACS outcomes were more similar to minor stroke. Memory and language versus frontal/ executive subtests were relatively more impaired in ACS than TIA and minor stroke patients. Conclusions Risk of cognitive impairment after ACS is similar to minor stroke and higher than TIA with implications for clinical practice including consent and adherence with medication. Differences in cognitive domain performance suggest a greater role for degenerative brain pathology in ACS which may be linked to vascular risk profile and cardiac factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents randomised controlled trials of risks and benefits of daily low-dose aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality and non-vascular death. It explores cancer deaths in trials of daily aspirin versus control, as well as the time course of effects of aspirin on cancer and outcomes in primary prevention. Results show short-term reductions in cancer incidence and mortality and risk of extracranial bleeds through extended use.

Abstract: Background: Family history of MI is an established risk factor for coronary artery disease and subclinical atherosclerosis. Maternal MI and maternal stroke are more common in females than males presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), suggesting sex-specific heritability, but the effects of family history on location and extent of coronary artery disease are unknown. Methods: In a prospective, population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study) of all patients with ACS, family history data for stroke and MI were analysed by sex of proband and affected first degree relatives (FDRs), and coronary angiograms were reviewed, where available. Results: Of 835 probands with one or more ACS, 623 (420 males) had incident events and complete family history data. 351 patients with incident events (56.3%; 266 males) underwent coronary angiography. Neither angiographic disease localization nor severity were associated with sex-of-parent/sex-of-offspring in men or women. Conclusions: Sex-specific family history data do not predict angiographic localization of coronary disease in patients presenting with ACS. Maternal stroke and maternal MI probably affect ACS in females by a mechanism unrelated to atherosclerosis or coronary anatomy. However, family history data may still be useful in risk prediction and prognosis of ACS. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article presents a clinical trial on the effect of urgent treatment of transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke on early recurrent stroke, called the EXPRESS study. Patients who have suffered a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke are 10 percent more likely to suffer an another episode in the week after the TIA. Models suggest that this could prevented 80-90 percent of the time but there are no studies to back up the claim. This study sought to see if rapid intervention after the first incident could prevent another immediate stroke in non-hospitalized patients. The study showed an 80 percent reduction for recurrence of stroke over the period of the study and says longer studies need to be done.