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In this study, the relationship between AO and winter synoptic temperature variability (STV) over the Northern Hemisphere is examined in 34 CMIP5/CMIP6 model outputs. With significant model bias around the North Pacific and North Atlantic, most models fail to capture the correct AO-STV pattern in historical simulations compared to observations. To investigate the bias of AO-STV relationship simulations, AO-related processes for the connection between AO and winter STV are examined in high pattern score (HPS) models and low pattern score (LPS) models, respectively. Furthermore, the bias of AO impact can be traced back to AO pattern simulations. On the one hand, compared to observations, HPS models can overall capture the intensity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic center of AO. On the other hand, LPS models tend to overestimate the North Pacific center and underestimate the North Atlantic center. In addition, similar to historical simulations, a robust AO-STV relationship can still be found over the Northern Hemisphere in future projections based on HPS models. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the projected AO-STV relationship in the multimodel ensemble is confined mainly to the North Pacific, consistent with the large diversity of intensity over the North Pacific center of AO, which is related to the uncertainty of the relationship between AO and regional mode variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant pattern of summertime tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is characterized by an out-of-phase relationship between the tropics and the extratropics. This pattern, defined as the tropical--North Pacific mode (TNPM) in this study, is closely correlated with the variability of climate over Asia and the Pacific Ocean. A high TNPM index, with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropics (tropics) of the Pacific, is linked to deep negative anomalies of tropospheric temperature over the extratropical Pacific, with shallow positive anomalies in the lower troposphere, and is also linked to deep positive temperature over Asia. It is also found that these anomalies of tropospheric temperature and SST are significantly related to the Asian--Pacific Oscillation (APO), an extratropical zonal--vertical atmospheric pattern connecting Asia and the Pacific. Indeed, when the variability of APO is removed, the above-described climate anomalies weaken significantly. Although the above relationships observed between atmospheric circulation and SST can be captured by general circulation models, sensitivity experiments show that the variations of summertime Asian--Pacific atmospheric circulation may not be mainly forced by the Pacific SST. Instead, the Asian land elevated heating seems to play a more important role in generating the climate anomalies, as shown by model-sensitivity experiments in which changes in topographic height are included. Moreover, the relative importance of Asian land and Pacific SST for the variations of Asian--Pacific climate in summer and winter is compared in this study. In winter the most dominant mode of Pacific SST exerts a stronger impact on the Asian--Pacific climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In winter 2018/19, southeastern coastal China experienced extreme warm temperatures that were due to a weak East Asian winter monsoon. On the basis of observations from 10 meteorological stations and reanalysis data, the large-scale circulation patterns associated with this extreme warm winter and the possible driving mechanism of its related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated in this study. During this winter, many places in this region reached their highest winter mean temperature record and had more extreme warm days and fewer extreme cold days relative to climatology. According to the circulation patterns during winter 2018/19, several large-scale circulation conditions associated mainly with the weak East Asian winter monsoon are identified: the eastward shift of the Siberian high and a shallower East Asian trough, which is related to the low blocking frequency over the Aleutian region, are both unfavorable for cold-air intrusion southward. Meanwhile, strong low-level southerly wind anomalies over southeastern China are related mainly to the 2018/19 El Niño event. Furthermore, the possible role of SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and tropical western Pacific Oceans is examined by using an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting that both the ''tripole pattern'' of North Atlantic SST and tropical western Pacific SST anomalies in winter 2018/19 played a role in influencing the East Asian trough. The combined effect of all of these factors seems to be responsible for this extreme warm winter over southeastern coastal China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]