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The recovery and re-calibration of a dataset of vertical aerosol extinction profiles of the 1963/64 stratospheric aerosol layer measured by a searchlight at 32° N in New Mexico, US, is reported. The recovered dataset consists of 105 aerosol extinction profiles at 550 nm that cover the period from December 1963 to December 1964. It is a unique record of the portion of the aerosol cloud from the March 1963 Agung volcanic eruption that was transported into the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. The data-recovery methodology involved re-digitizing the 105 original aerosol extinction profiles from individual Figures within a research report, followed by the re-calibration. It involves inverting the original equation used to compute the aerosol extinction profile to retrieve the corresponding normalized detector response profile. The re-calibration of the original aerosol extinction profiles used Rayleigh extinction profiles calculated from local soundings. Rayleigh and aerosol slant transmission corrections are applied using the MODTRAN code in transmission mode. Also, a best-estimate aerosol phase function was calculated from observations and applied to the entire column. The tropospheric aerosol phase function from an AERONET station in the vicinity of the searchlight location was applied between 2.76 to 11.7 km. The stratospheric phase function, applied for a 12.2 to 35.2 km altitude range, is calculated from particle-size distributions measured by a high-altitude aircraft in the vicinity of the searchlight in early 1964. The original error estimate was updated considering unaccounted errors. Both the re-calibrated aerosol extinction profiles and the re-calibrated stratospheric aerosol optical depth magnitudes showed higher magnitudes than the original aerosol extinction profiles and the original stratospheric aerosol optical depth, respectively. However, the magnitudes of the re-calibrated variables show a reasonable agreement with other contemporary observations. The re-calibrated stratospheric aerosol optical depth demonstrated its consistency with the tropics-to-pole decreasing trend, associated with the major volcanic eruption stratospheric aerosol pattern when compared to the time-coincident stratospheric aerosol optical depth lidar observations at Lexington at 42° N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial and prolonged enhancements in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) have occurred after large‐magnitude explosive tropical volcanic eruptions, with modified tropopause entry caused by aerosol‐absorptive heating. Here, we analyze the timing and longevity of heating‐driven post‐eruption SWV changes within CMIP6‐VolMIP short‐term climate‐response experiments with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). We find aerosol‐absorptive heating causes peak SWV increases of 17% (∼1 ppmv) and 10% (0.5 ppmv) at 100 and 50 hPa, at ∼18 and ∼23 months after a Pinatubo‐like eruption, respectively. We track the temperature response in the tropical lower stratosphere and identify the main SWV increase occurs only after the descending aerosol heating reaches the tropopause, suggesting a key role for aerosol microphysical processes (sedimentation rate). We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability modulates this effect. Post‐eruption SWV increases are ∼80% stronger for the La Nina phase compared to the ensemble mean. Tropical upwelling strongly mediates this effect. Plain Language Summary: Strong volcanic eruptions, such as the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo, inject a large amount of SO2 directly into the stratosphere, thereby enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer and causing a short‐term climatic perturbation. Another substantial part of the climatic influence is the change in stratospheric water vapor (SWV), which affects the chemical processes and the radiative budget of the atmosphere. Along with near‐instantaneous injection of water vapor into the stratosphere, volcanic eruptions can indirectly enhance the entry of water vapor into the stratosphere through aerosol‐induced tropopause heating. This work analyses Earth system model experiments designed to explore how volcanic impacts combine with internal climate variability. We find that peak SWV entry mixing ratios occur only within the second post‐eruption year, consistent with the substantially lagged timing of SWV increase seen in post‐Pinatubo satellite measurements. This analysis provides a new perspective on the temporal evolution of the observed post‐Pinatubo SWV increase and an improved quantification of its impacts. Key Points: Aerosol‐induced absorptive‐heating increases stratospheric water vapor (SWV) by up to 17% at 18 months post‐eruption in a Pinatubo‐like experimentAnalyzing simulations by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability show an 80% larger peak SWV increase occurs if an eruption is followed by a La Niña phaseThe timing of peak SWV increase occurs when volcanic‐aerosol‐induced heating reaches the tropopause, with ENSO modulation of tropical upwelling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report the recovery and re-calibration of an extensive dataset of vertical profile measurements of the 1963/64 stratospheric aerosol layer measured from a two-site searchlight measurement facility at White Sands missile base and Sacramento Peak observatory, in New Mexico, US. The recovered dataset comprises 105 profiles of 550nm aerosol extinction (βp(z)) and is part of a longer program of measurements with the US Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (AFCRL) searchlight facility that began in February 1963. The recovered series of βp(z) profiles span the 13-month period December 1963 to December 1964 and provide a unique record of the altitude and vertical extent of the Northern Hemisphere dispersed portion of the aerosol cloud from the March 1963 Agung volcanic eruption. The data recovery methodology involved first re-digitizing the 105 original βp(z) profiles (βp(z)) from individual Figures within an AFCRL research report (Elterman, 1966a). The re-calibration involves inverting the original equation used to compute βp(z) in Elterman (1966a; 1966b) to retrieve a normalized detector response (Er(z) Er(35)) profile for each of the 105 re-digitized βp 0(z) profiles. An iterative procedure was then used to compute the re-calibration βp(z) profiles (βp Ra(z)), with the molecular extinction profile calculated with the corresponding daily molecular extinction profile calculated from local soundings, rather than the US Standard Atmosphere 1962 in the original dataset. Two-way molecular and aerosol transmittance corrections are applied using the MODTRAN (MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission) code in transmission mode, applying a best-estimate aerosol phase function calculated from measurements, applied for the entire 2.76 to 35.2 km column. For the tropospheric aerosol transmittance, the AERONET aerosol phase function from White Sands High Energy Laser Systems Test Facility (HELSTF) was applied (2.76 to 10.7 km), a separate stratospheric phase function applied between 11.2 and 35.2 km, calculated from a set of particle size distributions measured by the U-2 high-altitude aircraft over a US region in the vicinity of White Sands in early 1964. Errors were estimated taking as a reference the errors determined in the computation of βp 0(z). Using available tabulated data from the original procedure the errors in the re-digitalization of βp 0(z) and in the retrieval of the Er(z) Er(35) procedures were calculated and later added to the original estimates. Both the βp R(z) and the stratospheric aerosol optical depth magnitudes showed higher magnitudes than βp 0(z) and the original stratospheric aerosol optical depth, however their magnitudes show a reasonable agreement with other contemporary observations. Both the original and recalibration datasets are being submitted to PANGAEA data repository for its storage and public access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report the recovery and processing methodology of the first ever multi-year lidar dataset of the stratospheric aerosol layer. A Q-switched ruby lidar measured 66 vertical profiles of 694 nm attenuated backscatter at Lexington, Massachusetts, between January 1964 and August 1965, with an additional nine profile measurements conducted from College, Alaska, during July and August 1964. We describe the processing of the recovered lidar backscattering ratio profiles to produce mid-visible (532 nm) stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles (sAEP 532) and stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD 532) measurements, utilizing a number of contemporary measurements of several different atmospheric variables. Stratospheric soundings of temperature and pressure generate an accurate local molecular backscattering profile, with nearby ozone soundings determining the ozone absorption, which are used to correct for two-way ozone transmittance. Two-way aerosol transmittance corrections are also applied based on nearby observations of total aerosol optical depth (across the troposphere and stratosphere) from sun photometer measurements. We show that accounting for these two-way transmittance effects substantially increases the magnitude of the 1964/1965 stratospheric aerosol layer's optical thickness in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, then ∼ 50 % larger than represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) volcanic forcing dataset. Compared to the uncorrected dataset, the combined transmittance correction increases the sAOD 532 by up to 66 % for Lexington and up to 27 % for Fairbanks, as well as individual sAEP 532 adjustments of similar magnitude. Comparisons with the few contemporary measurements available show better agreement with the corrected two-way transmittance values. Within the January 1964 to August 1965 measurement time span, the corrected Lexington sAOD 532 time series is substantially above 0.05 in three distinct periods, October 1964, March 1965, and May–June 1965, whereas the 6 nights the lidar measured in December 1964 and January 1965 had sAOD values of at most ∼ 0.03. The comparison with interactive stratospheric aerosol model simulations of the Agung aerosol cloud shows that, although substantial variation in mid-latitude sAOD 532 are expected from the seasonal cycle in the stratospheric circulation, the Agung cloud's dispersion from the tropics would have been at its strongest in winter and weakest in summer. The increasing trend in sAOD from January to July 1965, also considering the large variability, suggests that the observed variations are from a different source than Agung, possibly from one or both of the two eruptions that occurred in 1964/1965 with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 3: Trident, Alaska, and Vestmannaeyjar, Heimaey, south of Iceland. A detailed error analysis of the uncertainties in each of the variables involved in the processing chain was conducted. Relative errors for the uncorrected sAEP 532 were 54 % for Fairbanks and 44 % Lexington. For the corrected sAEP 532 the errors were 61 % and 64 %, respectively. The analysis of the uncertainties identified variables that with additional data recovery and reprocessing could reduce these relative error levels. Data described in this work are available at 10.1594/PANGAEA.922105 (Antuña-Marrero et al., 2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report the recovery and processing methodology of the first ever multi-year lidar dataset of the stratospheric aerosol layer. A Q-switched Ruby lidar measured 66 vertical profiles of 694nm attenuated backscatter at Lexington, Massachusetts between January 1964 and August 1965, with an additional 9 profile measurements conducted from College, Alaska during July and August 1964. We describe the processing of the recovered lidar backscattering ratio profiles to produce mid-visible (532nm) stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles (sAEP532) and stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD532) measurements, utilizing a number of contemporary measurements of several different atmospheric variables. Stratospheric soundings of temperature, and pressure generate an accurate local molecular backscattering profile, with nearby ozone soundings determining the ozone absorption, those profiles then used to correct for two-way ozone transmittance. Two-way aerosol transmittance corrections were also applied based on nearby observations of total aerosol optical depth (across the troposphere and stratosphere) from sun photometer measurements . We show the two-way transmittance correction has substantial effects on the retrieved sAEP532 and sAOD532, calculated without the corrections resulting in substantially lower values of both variables, as it was not applied in the original processing producing the lid ar scattering ratio profiles we rescued. The combined transmittance corrections causes the aerosol extinction to increase by 67 % for Lexington and 27 % for Fairbanks, for sAOD532 the increases 66 % and 26 % respectively. Comparing the magnitudes of the aerosol extinction and sAOD with the few contemporary available measurements reported show a better agreement in the case of the two way transmittance corrected values. The sAEP and sAOD timeseries at Lexington show a surprisingly large degree of variability, three periods where the stratospheric aerosol layer had suddenly elevated optical thickness, the highest sAOD532 of 0.07 measured at the end of March 1965. The two other periods of enhanced sAOD532 are both two-month periods where the lidars show more than 1 night where ret rieved sAOD532 exceeded 0.05: in January and February 1964 and November and December 1964. Interactive stratospheric aerosol model simulations of the 1963 Agung cloud illustrate that although substantial variation in mid-latitude sAOD532 is expected from the seasonal cycle in the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the Agung cloud dispersion will have caused much slower increase than the more episodic variations observed, with also different timing, elevated optical thickness from Agung occurring in winter and spring. The abruptness and timing of the steadily increasing sAOD from January to July 1965 suggests this variation was from a different source than Agung, possibly from one or both of the two VEI3 eruptions that occurred in 1964/65: Trident, Alaska and Vestmannaeyjar, Heimey, south of Iceland. A detailed error analysis of the uncertainties in each of the variables involved in the processing chain was conducted, relative errors of 54 % for Fairbanks and 44 % Lexington for the uncorrected sAEP532, corrected sAEP532 of 61 % and 64 % respectively. The analysis of the uncertainties identified variables that, with additional data recovery and reprocessing could reduce these relative error levels. Data described in this work are available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.922105 (Dataset in Review) (Antuña-Marrero et al., 2020a). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key limitation of volcanic forcing datasets for the Pinatubo period is the large uncertainty that remains with respect to the extent of the optical depth of the Pinatubo aerosol cloud in the first year after the eruption, the saturation of the SAGE-II instrument restricting it to only be able to measure the upper part of the aerosol cloud in the tropics. Here we report the recovery of stratospheric aerosol measurements from two shipborne lidars, both of which measured the tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol produced by the June 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. The lidars were on board two Soviet vessels, each ship crossing the Atlantic, their measurement datasets providing unique observational transects of the Pinatubo cloud across the tropics from Europe to the Caribbean (∼ 40 to 8 ∘ N) from July to September 1991 (the Professor Zubov ship) and from Europe to south of the Equator (∼ 40 ∘ N to 8 ∘ S) between January and February 1992 (the Professor Vize ship). Our philosophy with the data recovery is to follow the same algorithms and parameters that appear in the two peer-reviewed articles that presented these datasets in the same issue of GRL in 1993, and here we provide all 48 lidar soundings made from the Professor Zubov and 11 of the 20 conducted from the Professor Vize , ensuring we have reproduced the aerosol backscatter and extinction values in the figures of those two papers. These original approaches used thermodynamic properties from the CIRA-86 standard atmosphere to derive the molecular backscattering, vertically and temporally constant values applied for the aerosol backscatter-to-extinction ratio, and the correction factor of the aerosol backscatter wavelength dependence. We demonstrate this initial validation of the recovered stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles, providing full details of each dataset in this paper's Supplement S1, the original profiles of backscatter ratio, and the calculated profiles of aerosol backscatter and extinction. We anticipate these datasets will provide potentially important new observational case studies for modelling analyses, including a 1-week series of consecutive soundings (in September 1991) at the same location showing the progression of the entrainment of part of the Pinatubo plume into the upper troposphere and the formation of an associated cirrus cloud. The Zubov lidar dataset illustrates how the tropically confined Pinatubo aerosol cloud transformed from a highly heterogeneous vertical structure in August 1991, maximum aerosol extinction values around 19 km for the lower layer and 23–24 for the upper layer, to a more homogeneous and deeper reservoir of volcanic aerosol in September 1991. We encourage modelling groups to consider new analyses of the Pinatubo cloud, comparing the recovered datasets, with the potential to increase our understanding of the evolution of the Pinatubo aerosol cloud and its effects. Data described in this work are available at 10.1594/PANGAEA.912770 (Antuña-Marrero et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key limitation of volcanic forcing datasets for the Pinatubo period, is the large uncertainty that remains with respect to the extent of the optical depth of the Pinatubo aerosol cloud in the first year after the eruption, the saturation of the SAGE-II instrument restricting it to only be able to measure the upper part of the aerosol cloud in the tropics. Here we report the recovery of stratospheric aerosol measurements from two ship-borne lidars, both of which measured the tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol produced by the June 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. The lidars were on-board two Soviet vessels, each ship crossing the Atlantic, their measurement datasets providing unique observational transects of the Pinatubo cloud across the tropics from Europe to the Caribbean (~ 40° N to 8° N) from July to September 1991 (the Prof Zubov ship) and from Europe to south of the Equator (8° S to ~ 40° N) between January and February 1992 (the Prof Vizeship). Our philosophy with the data recovery is to follow the same algorithms and parameters appearing in the two peer-reviewed articles that presented these datasets in the same issue of GRL in 1993, and here we provide all 48 lidar soundings made from the Prof. Zubov, and 11 of the 20 conducted from the Prof. Vize, ensuring we have reproduced the aerosols backscatter and extinction values in the Figures of those two papers. These original approaches used thermodynamic properties from the CIRA-86 standard atmosphere to derive the molecular backscattering, vertically and temporally constant values applied for the aerosol backscatter to extinction ratio and the correction factor of the aerosols backscattering wavelength dependence. We demonstrate this initial validation of the recovered stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles, providing full details of each dataset in this paper's Supplement S1, the original text files of the backscatter ratio, the calculated aerosols backscatter and extinction profiles. We anticipate the data providing potential new observational case studies for modelling analyses, including a 1-week series of consecutive soundings (in September 1991) at the same location showing the progression of the entrainment of part of the Pinatubo plume into the upper troposphere and the formation of an associated cirrus cloud. The Zubov lidar dataset illustrates how the tropically confined Pinatubo aerosol cloud transformed from a highly heterogeneous vertical structure in August 1991, maximum aerosol extinction values around 19 km for the lower layer and 23-24 for the upper layer, to a more homogeneous and deeper reservoir of volcanic aerosol in September 1991. We encourage modelling groups to consider new analyses of the Pinatubo cloud, comparing to the recovered datasets, with the potential to increase our understanding of the evolution of the Pinatubo aerosol cloud and its effects. Data described in this work are available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.912770 (Antuña-Marrero et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP) explores uncertainties in the processes that connect volcanic emission of sulfur gas species and the radiative forcing associated with the resulting enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer. The central aim of ISA-MIP is to constrain and improve interactive stratospheric aerosol models and reduce uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing by comparing results of standardized model experiments with a range of observations. In this paper we present four co-ordinated inter-model experiments designed to investigate key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol in different time periods of the observational record. The Background (BG) experiment will focus on microphysics and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, when the stratospheric aerosol is controlled by the transport of aerosols and their precursors from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The Transient Aerosol Record (TAR) experiment will explore the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic sulfur emissions, and transport processes over the period 1998-2012 and their role in the warming hiatus. Two further experiments will investigate the stratospheric sulfate aerosol evolution after major volcanic eruptions. The Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment (HErSEA) experiment will focus on the uncertainty in the initial emission of recent large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, while the Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple models (PoEMS) experiment will provide a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) interactive stratospheric aerosol model intercomparison project (ISA-MIP) explores uncertainties in the processes that connect volcanic emission of sulphur gas species and the radiative forcing associated with the resulting enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer. The central aim of ISA-MIP is to constrain and improve interactive stratospheric aerosol models and reduce uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing by comparing results of standardized model experiments with a range of observations. In this paper we present 4 co-ordinated inter-model experiments designed to investigate key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol in different time periods of the observational record. The Background (BG) experiment will focus on microphysics and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, when the stratospheric aerosol is controlled by the transport of aerosols and their precursors from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The Transient Aerosol Record (TAR) experiment will explore the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic sulphur emissions and transport processes over the period 1998-2012 and their role in the warming hiatus. Two further experiments will investigate the stratospheric sulphate aerosol evolution after major volcanic eruptions. The Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment (HErSEA) experiment will focus on the uncertainty in the initial emission of recent large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, while the Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple models (PoEMS) experiment will provide a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dissolution of semi-volatile inorganic gases such as ammonia and nitric acid into the aerosol aqueous phase has an important influence on the composition, hygroscopic properties, and size distribution of atmospheric aerosol particles. The representation of dissolution in global models is challenging due to inherent issues of numerical stability and computational expense. For this reason, simplified approaches are often taken, with many models treating dissolution as an equilibrium process. In this paper we describe the new dissolution solver HyDiS-1.0, which was developed for the global size-resolved simulation of aerosol inorganic composition. The solver applies a hybrid approach, which allows for some particle size classes to establish instantaneous gas-particle equilibrium, whereas others are treated time dependently (or dynamically). Numerical accuracy at a competitive computational expense is achieved by using several tailored numerical formalisms and decision criteria, such as for the time- and size-dependent choice between the equilibrium and dynamic approaches. The new hybrid solver is shown to have numerical stability across a wide range of numerical stiffness conditions encountered within the atmosphere. For ammonia and nitric acid, HyDiS-1.0 is found to be in excellent agreement with a fully dynamic benchmark solver. In the presence of sea salt aerosol, a somewhat larger bias is found under highly polluted conditions if hydrochloric acid is represented as a third semi-volatile species. We present first results of the solver's implementation into a global aerosol microphysics and chemistry transport model. We find that (1) the new solver predicts surface concentrations of nitrate and ammonium in reasonable agreement with observations over Europe, the USA, and East Asia, (2) models that assume gas-particle equilibrium will not capture the partitioning of nitric acid and ammonia into Aitken-mode-sized particles, and thus may be missing an important pathway through which secondary particles may grow to radiation- and cloudinteracting size, and (3) the new hybrid solver's computational expense is modest, at around 10%of total computation time in these simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dissolution of semi-volatile inorganic gases such as ammonia and nitric acid into the aerosol liquid phase has an important influence on the composition, hygroscopic properties and size distribution of atmospheric aerosol particles. The representation of dissolution in global models is challenging due to inherent issues of numerical stability and computational expense. For this reason, simplified approaches are often taken, with many models treating dissolution as an equilibrium process. In this paper we describe the new dissolution solver HyDiS-1.0 that was developped for the global size-resolved simulation of aerosol inorganic composition. The solver applies a hybrid approach, which allows some particle size increments to establish instantaneous gas-particle equilibrium while others are treated time dependently (or dynamically). Numerical accuracy at a competitive computational expense is achieved by using several tailored numerical formalisms and decision criteria, such as for the time- and size-dependent choice between the equilibrium and dynamic approaches. The new hybrid solver is shown to be in good to excellent agreement with a fully dynamic solver and to have numerical stability across a wide range of numerical stiffness conditions encountered within the atmosphere. We present first results of the solver's implementation into a global aerosol microphysics and chemistry transport model. We find that (1) the new solver predicts surface concentrations of nitrate and ammonium in reasonable agreement with observations over Europe, the US and East Asia; (2) models that assume gas-particle equilibrium will not capture the partitioning of nitric acid and ammonia into Aitken mode sized particles, and thus may be missing an important pathway whereby secondary particles may grow to radiation and cloud-interacting size; and (3) the new hybrid solver's computational expense is modest, at around 10 % of total computation time in these simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of outcome for melanoma patients with surgically resected macroscopic nodal metastases is very imprecise. We performed a comprehensive clinico-pathologic assessment of fresh-frozen macroscopic nodal metastases and the preceding primary melanoma, somatic mutation profiling, and gene expression profiling to identify determinants of outcome in 79 melanoma patients. In addition to disease stage 4 years, 90% confidence interval): the presence of a nodular component in the primary melanoma (6.8, 0.6-76.0), and small cell size (11.1, 0.8-100.0) or low pigmentation (3.0, 0.8-100.0) in the nodal metastases. Absence of BRAF mutation (20.0, 1.0-1000.0) or NRAS mutation (16.7, 0.6-1000.0) were both favorable prognostic factors. A 46-gene expression signature with strong overrepresentation of immune response genes was predictive of better survival (10.9, 0.4-325.6); in the full cohort, median survival was >100 months in those with the signature, but 10 months in those without. This relationship was validated in two previously published independent stage III melanoma data sets. We conclude that the presence of BRAF mutation, NRAS mutation, and the absence of an immune-related expressed gene profile predict poor outcome in melanoma patients with macroscopic stage III disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although a large collection of classification software packages exist in R, a new generic framework for linking custom classification functions with classification performance measures is needed. A generic classification framework has been designed and implemented as an R package in an object oriented style. Its design places emphasis on parallel processing, reproducibility and extensibility. Finally, a comprehensive set of performance measures are available to ease post-processing. Taken together, these important characteristics enable rapid and reproducible benchmarking of alternative classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survival analysis is a branch of statistics that deals with both the tracking of time and the survival status simultaneously as the dependent response. Current comparisons of survival model performance mostly center on clinical data with classic statistical survival models, with prediction accuracy often serving as the sole metric of model performance. Moreover, survival analysis approaches for censored omics data have not been thoroughly investigated. The common approach is to binarize the survival time and perform a classification analysis. Here, we develop a benchmarking design, SurvBenchmark, that evaluates a diverse collection of survival models for both clinical and omics data sets. SurvBenchmark not only focuses on classical approaches such as the Cox model but also evaluates state-of-the-art machine learning survival models. All approaches were assessed using multiple performance metrics; these include model predictability, stability, flexibility, and computational issues. Our systematic comparison design with 320 comparisons (20 methods over 16 data sets) shows that the performances of survival models vary in practice over real-world data sets and over the choice of the evaluation metric. In particular, we highlight that using multiple performance metrics is critical in providing a balanced assessment of various models. The results in our study will provide practical guidelines for translational scientists and clinicians, as well as define possible areas of investigation in both survival technique and benchmarking strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the original SAGE-II and lidar gap-filling volcanic aerosol datasets in the initial months following the Pinatubo eruption. During that period, the lower stratosphere was so optically opaque making impossible for SAGE II to conduct reliable measurements. We make use of five lidar datasets for that period we have compiled from research teams. None of these datasets were used for gap filling in the most recent stratospheric aerosols climatology. The Aspendale ground-based lidar measurements in the southern hemisphere were made throughout the 2nd half of 1991, also measuring the depolarization of the plume from early 1992. Two ship-borne lidar from the Russian vessels Prof. Zubov ship Atlantic transect from Europe to the Caribbean July to September 1991 and Prof. Vize ship transect from Europe to south of the Equator between January and February 1992. Two NASA airborne lidar missions. NASA-Electra Aircraft Missions to the Caribbean on July 12, 13 and 14 1991 and NASA-Ames Aircraft Mission to the Pacific to the Pacific on May 24 and 26 1992. We present preliminary analysis of these datasets and will combine them with ensemble of simulations with the UM-UKCA interactive stratospheric aerosol model and identify best fit to the measurements retaining also the fine-scale spatial and temporal evolution of the volcanic aerosol cloud. The activity aligns with a new "data rescue" activity in the 2nd phase of the SPARC initiative "Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC). We will make the lidar datasets available to the scientific community in a public repository via the SSiRC website. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widespread presence of meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) within a distinct class of stratospheric aerosol particles has become clear from in-situ measurements in the Arctic, Antarctic and at mid-latitudes. Knowledge of how extensive inclusions of MSPs occur within the liquid background stratospheric aerosol is important in light of growing evidence that many polar stratospheric clouds form heterogeneously in the Arctic. In this study, we first explain the adaptation of the interactive stratosphere-troposphere aerosol-chemistry-climate model UM-UKCA to additionally resolve the heterogeneous nucleation of meteoric-sulphuric particles, alongside the existing pure aqueous sulphuric acid particles formed by homogeneous nucleation.We present the simulated global distribution of both types of stratospheric aerosol particle showing how they form on 10-20nm MSP cores in the uppermost stratospheric aerosol layer at high latitudes, as MSPs are transported down from the mesosphere within the polar vortex. Our simulations suggest that meteoric-sulphuric particles contribute around 5-10 particles per cc additional condensation nuclei to the upper half of the winter polar stratospheric aerosol layer at particle sizes around 30-70nm. Although the meteoric-sulphuric particles are at lower concentrations in the mid-latitude stratosphere, resolving their presence in the model changes dramatically the simulated lifecyle of the background pure stratospheric sulphuric particles. The additional condensation sink from the MSP-core particles reduces the condensational growth of the pure sulphuric particles, changing their vertical distribution, stratospheric residence time and transport trajectory within the prevailing Brewer-Dobson circulation. We find that resolving both sulphuric particle types in the model reduces the simulated stratospheric aerosol layer sulphur burden by a factor of 5 and greatly improves CN concentration predictions, remedying a previous high bias in the upper stratospheric aerosol layer from excessive particle formation in polar winter and spring. Comparing to particle concentration measurements at Laramie, our results suggest that, aside from the observed layer of enhanced concentrations (at 30km) during late winter early spring (which is caused by homogeneous particle formation), in other months, the vertical profile of CN (Dp>10nm) is approximately constant above 20km, the change from the decreasing profile from 15-20km caused both by the MSP-nucleated sulphuric particles and a strong additional seasonal variation (absent in previous simulations) caused by meridional transport of pure sulphuric particles homogeneous nucleated in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) interactive stratospheric aerosol model intercomparison project (ISA-MIP) explores uncertainties in the processes that connect volcanic emission of sulphur gas species and the radiative forcing associated with the resulting enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer. The central aim of ISA-MIP is to constrain and improve interactive stratospheric aerosol models and reduce uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing by comparing results of standardized model experiments with a range of observations. In this paper we present 4 co-ordinated inter-model experiments designed to investigate key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol in different time periods of the observational record. The "Background" (BG) experiment will focus on microphysics and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, when the stratospheric aerosol is controlled by the transport of aerosols and their precursors from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The "Transient Aerosol Record" (TAR) experiment will explore the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic sulphur emissions and transport processes over the period 1998-2012 and their role in the warming hiatus. Two further experiments will investigate the stratospheric sulphate aerosol evolution after major volcanic eruptions. The "Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment" (HErSEA) experiment will focus on the uncertainty in the initial emission of recent large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, while the "Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple models" (PoEMS) experiment will provide a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) injected a huge amount (∼150 Tg) of water vapor (H2O) into the stratosphere, along with small amount of SO2. An off‐line 3‐D chemical transport model (CTM) successfully reproduces the spread of the injected H2O through October 2023 as observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder. Dehydration in the 2023 Antarctic polar vortex caused the first substantial (∼20 Tg) removal of HTHH H2O from the stratosphere. The CTM indicates that this process will dominate removal of HTHH H2O for the coming years, giving an overall e‐folding timescale of 4 years; around 25 Tg of the injected H2O is predicted to still remain in the stratosphere by 2030. Following relatively low Antarctic column ozone in midwinter 2023 due to transport effects, additional springtime depletion due to H2O‐related chemistry was small and maximized at the vortex edge (10 DU in column). Plain Language Summary: Around 150 Tg (150 million tons) of water vapor was injected into the stratosphere during the eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas and this increase is expected to have a warming effect in the troposphere, as well causing perturbations in stratospheric chemistry and aerosols. We use an atmospheric model to study the residence time of this excess water vapor and its impact on the recent Antarctic ozone hole. The model performance is evaluated by comparison with satellite measurements. Wintertime dehydration in the Antarctic stratosphere in 2023 is found to be an important mechanism for removal of the volcanic water from the stratosphere. However, the overall removal rate is predicted to be slow; around 25 Tg (17%) is still present in 2030. The direct impact of the excess water vapor on ozone via chemical processes in the Antarctic ozone hole in 2023 is small. Key Points: Antarctic dehydration is a major removal pathway of stratospheric H2O injected from Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruptionHTHH H2O caused small (up to 10 DU) additional chemical ozone depletion in 2023 Antarctic springModel indicates e‐folding timescale of 4 years for removal of HTHH H2O from stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The study aimed to estimate the prevalence of active or previous SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in asymptomatic adults admitted for elective surgery in Australian hospitals. This surveillance activity was established as part of the National Pandemic Health Intelligence Plan. Methods: Participants (n = 3037) were recruited from 11 public and private hospitals in four states (NSW, Vic, SA and WA) between 2 June and 17 July 2020, with an overall 66% participation rate. Presence of SARS‐CoV‐2 viral RNA was assessed by Reverse Transcriptase ‐ Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT‐PCR) analysis of nasopharyngeal swabs taken after induction of anaesthesia. Presence of anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 antibodies was assessed by analysis of serum collected at the same time using a novel dual‐antigen ELISA assay. Results: No patient (0/3010) returned a positive RT‐PCR result. The Bayesian estimated prevalence of active infection of 0.02% (95% probability interval 0.00–0.11%), with the upper endpoint being 1 in 918. Positive serology (IgG) was observed in 15 of 2991 patients, with a strong positive in five of those individuals (Bayesian estimated seroprevalence 0.16%; 95% probability interval 0.00–0.47%). Conclusion: These results confirm that during periods of low community prevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2 elective surgery patients without fever or respiratory symptoms had a very low prevalence of active SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In Australia, opportunistic screening (occurring as skin checks) for the early detection of melanoma is common, and overdiagnosis is a recognised concern. Risk-tailored cancer screening is an approach to cancer control that aims to provide personalised screening tailored to individual risk. This study aimed to explore the views of key informants in Australia on the acceptability and appropriateness of risk-tailored organised screening for melanoma, and to identify barriers, facilitators and strategies to inform potential future implementation. Acceptability and appropriateness are crucial, as successful implementation will require a change of practice for clinicians and consumers. Methods: This was a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Key informants were purposively selected to ensure expertise in melanoma early detection and screening, prioritising senior or executive perspectives. Consumers were expert representatives. Data were analysed deductively using the Tailored Implementation for Chronic Diseases (TICD) checklist. Results: Thirty-six participants were interviewed (10 policy makers; 9 consumers; 10 health professionals; 7 researchers). Key informants perceived risk-tailored screening for melanoma to be acceptable and appropriate in principle. Barriers to implementation included lack of trial data, reluctance for low-risk groups to not screen, variable skill level in general practice, differing views on who to conduct screening tests, confusing public health messaging, and competing health costs. Key facilitators included the perceived opportunity to improve health equity and the potential cost-effectiveness of a risk-tailored screening approach. A range of implementation strategies were identified including strengthening the evidence for cost-effectiveness, engaging stakeholders, developing pathways for people at low risk, evaluating different risk assessment criteria and screening delivery models and targeted public messaging. Conclusion: Key informants were supportive in principle of risk-tailored melanoma screening, highlighting important next steps. Considerations around risk assessment, policy and modelling the costs of current verses future approaches will help inform possible future implementation of risk-tailored population screening for melanoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: delivery of health care; dermatologists; melanoma; survival EN delivery of health care dermatologists melanoma survival 425 429 5 08/14/23 20230801 NES 230801 Most Australian dermatologists (92%) work in major cities,[1] limiting dermatology access to people residing in urban areas and placing a burden on rural patients to travel to major centres for such care. The density (per 100,000 population) was mapped to regions from the Australian Statistical Geography standard, Statistical Area Level 4 (ASGC-SAL4) from 2011, and categorised.[5] Patients who had multiple primary melanomas had their thickest melanoma included, and those with in situ melanoma or with metastatic melanoma when diagnosed were excluded. 25% of melanomas were diagnosed by dermatologists, 36% by generalist general practitioners (GPs) and 16% by skin-cancer specialised GPs (Table 2). [Extracted from the article]

The article presents a brief information on the U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI)-funded initiative support and facilitate cancer research Cancer Research Network which hosted the Sydney Cancer Conference in 2014. Topics include its establishment in 2006 with an aim to link cancer researchers in the University of Sydney, its focus on to build scientific community across geographical barriers, and its aim to increase its internal and external funding.

Background Population-wide screening for melanoma is not cost-effective, but genetic characterization could facilitate risk stratification and targeted screening. Common Melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) red hair colour (RHC) variants and Microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF) E318K separately confer moderate melanoma susceptibility, but their interactive effects are relatively unexplored. Objectives To evaluate whether MC1R genotypes differentially affect melanoma risk in MITF E318K+ vs. E318K– individuals. Materials and methods Melanoma status (affected or unaffected) and genotype data (MC1R and MITF E318K) were collated from research cohorts (five Australian and two European). In addition, RHC genotypes from E318K+ individuals with and without melanoma were extracted from databases (The Cancer Genome Atlas and Medical Genome Research Bank, respectively). χ 2 and logistic regression were used to evaluate RHC allele and genotype frequencies within E318K+/– cohorts depending on melanoma status. Replication analysis was conducted on 200 000 general-population exomes (UK Biobank). Results The cohort comprised 1165 MITF E318K– and 322 E318K+ individuals. In E318K– cases MC1R R and r alleles increased melanoma risk relative to wild type (wt), P < 0.001 for both. Similarly, each MC1R RHC genotype (R/R, R/r, R/wt, r/r and r/wt) increased melanoma risk relative to wt/wt (P < 0.001 for all). In E318K+ cases, R alleles increased melanoma risk relative to the wt allele [odds ratio (OR) 2.04 (95% confidence interval 1.67–2.49); P = 0.01], while the r allele risk was comparable with the wt allele [OR 0.78 (0.54–1.14) vs. 1.00, respectively]. E318K+ cases with the r/r genotype had a lower but not significant melanoma risk relative to wt/wt [OR 0.52 (0.20–1.38)]. Within the E318K+ cohort, R genotypes (R/R, R/r and R/wt) conferred a significantly higher risk compared with non-R genotypes (r/r, r/wt and wt/wt) (P < 0.001). UK Biobank data supported our findings that r did not increase melanoma risk in E318K+ individuals. Conclusions RHC alleles/genotypes modify melanoma risk differently in MITF E318K– and E318K+ individuals. Specifically, although all RHC alleles increase risk relative to wt in E318K– individuals, only MC1R R increases melanoma risk in E318K+ individuals. Importantly, in the E318K+ cohort the MC1R r allele risk is comparable with wt. These findings could inform counselling and management for MITF E318K+ individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We are conducting a multicenter study to identify classifiers predictive of disease-specific survival in patients with primary melanomas. Here we delineate the unique aspects, challenges, and best practices for optimizing a study of generally small-sized pigmented tumor samples including primary melanomas of at least 1.05mm from AJTCC TNM stage IIA-IIID patients. We also evaluated tissue-derived predictors of extracted nucleic acids' quality and success in downstream testing. This ongoing study will target 1,000 melanomas within the international InterMEL consortium. Methods: Following a pre-established protocol, participating centers ship formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue sections to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center for the centralized handling, dermatopathology review and histology-guided coextraction of RNA and DNA. Samples are distributed for evaluation of somatic mutations using next gen sequencing (NGS) with the MSK-IMPACTTM assay, methylation-profiling (Infinium MethylationEPIC arrays), and miRNA expression (Nanostring nCounter Human v3 miRNA Expression Assay). Results: Sufficient material was obtained for screening of miRNA expression in 683/685 (99%) eligible melanomas, methylation in 467 (68%), and somatic mutations in 560 (82%). In 446/685 (65%) cases, aliquots of RNA/DNA were sufficient for testing with all three platforms. Among samples evaluated by the time of this analysis, the mean NGS coverage was 249x, 59 (18.6%) samples had coverage below 100x, and 41/414 (10%) failed methylation QC due to low intensity probes or insufficient Meta-Mixed Interquartile (BMIQ)- and single sample (ss)- Noob normalizations. Six of 683 RNAs (1%) failed Nanostring QC due to the low proportion of probes above the minimum threshold. Age of the FFPE tissue blocks (p<0.001) and time elapsed from sectioning to co-extraction (p = 0.002) were associated with methylation screening failures. Melanin reduced the ability to amplify fragments of 200bp or greater (absent/lightly pigmented vs heavily pigmented, p<0.003). Conversely, heavily pigmented tumors rendered greater amounts of RNA (p<0.001), and of RNA above 200 nucleotides (p<0.001). Conclusion: Our experience with many archival tissues demonstrates that with careful management of tissue processing and quality control it is possible to conduct multi-omic studies in a complex multi-institutional setting for investigations involving minute quantities of FFPE tumors, as in studies of early-stage melanoma. The study describes, for the first time, the optimal strategy for obtaining archival and limited tumor tissue, the characteristics of the nucleic acids co-extracted from a unique cell lysate, and success rate in downstream applications. In addition, our findings provide an estimate of the anticipated attrition that will guide other large multicenter research and consortia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the dosimeter data we derived: (i) time spent outdoors exposed to UV, defined as any 8-s measurements with UV values of >0; and (ii) total standard erythemal doses (SEDs) as a measure of UV dose. Table 1 Spearman rank correlations between weekend and weekday ultraviolet radiation (UV) exposure measured as standard erythemal doses (SEDs) using electronic UV dosimeters HT