Search

A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no 'good' or 'bad' primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society. [Display omitted] • A new method to assess if unconventional oils can provide energy security is shown. • The analysis of oil metabolic patterns sheds light on their feasibility and viability. • The profiles of oil product supplied and required must match in the long term. • High shares of unconventional crudes cause supply bottlenecks. • Expansion of US and EU fuel use patterns would result in gasoline and diesel shortage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that shortage of human activity may represent an internal constraint to economic growth as relevant as external resource and sink constraints. Human time is required, both inside and outside the market, to produce and consume the goods and services needed to sustain societal metabolism. The time allocation profile is therefore an emergent property of the societal metabolic pattern. When most time is invested in services and final consumption rather than supplying the inputs required by the metabolic process, further growth is constrained. This problem may be temporarily overcome by three strategies: (i) increasing capital investment to boost labor productivity in the productive sectors; (ii) externalizing the requirement of working hours through imports of goods and services; (iii) importing economically active population through immigration. Each strategy is illustrated with an empirical example: (i) a comparison of the evolution of the profile of time and capital allocation between China and the EU; (ii) an assessment of the labor hours embodied in EU imports; (iii) an analysis of demographic changes in response to immigration in Spain. While these strategies can temporarily overcome constraints to economic growth at the national level, they do not represent a long-term solution at the global level. • Human time represents a key internal constraint to economic growth. • The richer the society the stronger is the working time constrains in its economy. • The profile of allocation of human activity in a society is an emergent property. • A metabolic perspective allows a contingent analysis of human time allocation. • There are individual, household, sectoral, national, and global time constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The declining performance of the oil sector is studied with relational analysis. • Aging fields and unconventional sources may hinder climate change mitigation. • Emissions per barrel are expected to increase by 6–26% in 40 years. • The emission overhead is comparable to emissions of entire EU economic sectors. • The option space of potential changes is explored by running "what if" simulations. This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6–26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO 2 comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]