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Patterns of freshwater availability—its variability and distribution—are already shifting as a function of global climate change and climate variability. High-resolution global gridded reanalysis products present an important tool to understand the already observed changes and thereby improve future scenarios as the climate evolves. A historical 100-yr-long district rainfall dataset and a unique set of highly detailed rainfall data from the highveld of South Africa spanning a 10-yr period provide an opportunity to independently evaluate the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis product. Evaluation is challenged by the episodic nature of significant rainfall events of southern Africa as well as differences in spatial and temporal resolution between model output and surface precipitation data. Here we present a convergent methodology spanning annual to event time scales and regional to gauge-level spatial scales to identify the characteristics of systematic biases in variability and amount of rain as well as timing of events. We find that ERA5 is consistently wetter than observed in ways that affect the timing of individual events while performing well on metrics associated with large-scale trends and seasonal variability. Errors are associated with both stratiform and convective rainfall types, but the timing of onset of convective rainfall is a challenge that is critical in this summer-rainfall-dominated region. Significance Statement: High-resolution gridded datasets are invaluable tools for gaining improved understanding of historical rainfall variations under the influence of climate change. In addition, these datasets provide consistent information for purposes such as water resources management. Quantification of dataset biases provides important guidance for robust decision-making as well as for the development of future climate scenarios. However, rainfall is an especially challenging quantity to assess. With the increasing incidence of drought and flood, methods that independently validate this high-resolution gridded data are needed to ensure high-quality knowledge support. This study demonstrates an approach using convergent streams of evidence to assess the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts gridded rainfall dataset with the purpose of better understanding the evolving characteristics of rainfall in southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a tracking algorithm for synoptic to meso-a-scale Arctic cyclones that differentiates between cold- and warm-core systems. The algorithm is applied to the ERA5 reanalysis north of 608N from 1950 to 2019. In this dataset, over one-half of the cyclones that meet minimum intensity and duration thresholds can be classified as cold-core systems. Systems that undergo transition, typically from cold to warm core, make up 27.2% of cyclones and are longer lived. The relatively infrequent warm-core cyclones are more intense and are most common in winter. The Arctic-wide occurrence of maritime cyclones has increased from 1979 to 2019 when compared with the period from 1950 to 1978, but the trends have high interannual variability. This shift has ramifications for transportation, fisheries, and extractive industries, as well as impacts on communities across the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC) on the evolution of Arctic climate has been well documented. The significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light of this, an ensemble of scenarios are developed that simulate the hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However, the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g. Greenland Sea) and in other locations damp (e.g. Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice levies an impost on maritime navigability in the Arctic, but ice cover diminution due to anthropogenic climate change is generating expectations for improved accessibility in coming decades. Projections of sea ice cover retreating preferentially from the eastern Arctic suggest key provisions of international law of the sea will require revision. Specifically, protections against marine pollution in ice-covered seas enshrined in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have been used in recent decades to extend jurisdictional competence over the Northern Sea Route only loosely associated with environmental outcomes. Projections show that plausible open water routes through international waters may be accessible by midcentury under all but the most aggressive of emissions control scenarios. While inter- and intraannual variability places the economic viability of these routes in question for some time, the inevitability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be attended by a reduction of regulatory friction and a recalibration of associated legal frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Obesity can develop during any life stage. Understanding the contexts within which obesity develops can inform our understanding of the disease and help tailor interventions specific to life stages. Objective Using life-course theory as a guiding framework, this study aimed to explain the development of obesity in bariatric surgery patients by creating personalized weight trajectories. Design Qualitative methods using semistructured interviews were used to uncover participants’ experiences with and explanations for the development of obesity. A grounded theory approach using the constant comparative method was used to analyze transcripts for categories and themes. Participants/setting Thirty pre-bariatric surgery patients (24 women, 6 men) were recruited from a bariatric surgery center; 25 participants were available for follow-up. Participants were interviewed before surgery and at 6 and 12 months postsurgery. Results Four weight history groups were created based on patterns of weight changes from adolescence through adulthood: Always Heavy, Late Peak, Steady Progression, and Weight Cycling. Participants’ explanations for weight changes centered around themes of transitions and life-course events or stressors. Differences in the weight history groups could be explained by the timing of transitions, life events, and responses to stress. Conclusions The development of obesity does not follow the same pattern for all individuals. Weight gain patterns can be explained by the timing of life-course events, stressors, and the type and effects of environmental transitions. Weight management counseling should include strategies tailored to an individual’s current life-stage and circumstance, but also acknowledge previous responses to transitions and stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the sensitivity of the simulated trajectory, intensification, and forward speed of Tropical Cyclone Yasi to initial conditions, physical parameterizations, and sea surface temperatures. Yasi was a category 5 storm that made landfall in Queensland, Australia in February 2011. A series of simulations were performed using WRF-ARW v3.4.1 driven by ERA-Interim data at the lateral boundaries. To assess these simulations, a new simple skill score is devised to summarize the deviation from observed conditions at landfall. The results demonstrate the sensitivity to initial condition resolution and the need for a new initialization dataset. Ensemble testing of physics parameterizations revealed strong sensitivity to cumulus schemes, with a trade-off between trajectory and intensity accuracy. The Tiedtke scheme produces an accurate trajectory evolution and landfall location. The Kain Fritch scheme is associated with larger errors in trajectory due to a less active shallow convection over the ocean, leading to warmer temperatures at the 700 mb level and a stronger, more poleward steering flow. However, the Kain Fritsch scheme produces more accurate intensities and translation speeds. Tiedtke-derived intensities were weaker due to suppression of deep convection by active shallow convection. Accurate representation of the sea surface temperature through correcting a newly discovered SST lag in reanalysis data or increasing resolution of SST data can improve the simulation. Higher resolution increases relative vorticity and intensity. However, the sea surface boundary had a more pronounced effect on the simulation with the Tiedtke scheme due to its moisture convergence trigger and active shallow convection over the tropical ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic ice edge centres deliberations over the region's futures, either as an explicit policy and research problem, or as an implicit control on innovations. This exploratory paper proposes a narrative approach to examine ontological security, identifying a common epistemic structure in multiple ways of knowing the ice edge, and of devising associated policy. These epistemic narratives weave discourse (ideas, concepts and knowledge) and scale (as relationships, networks and timelines) to provide coordinate systems of purpose and identity that unfold as the material world. Surreptitious, un-narrated or interfering changes can produce ontological insecurities, often leading to closed decisions in authoritarian forums. Research and policy designed for complexity anticipate ontological insecurities through democratic and deliberative narratives of earth system processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of obesity in the U.S. is at an all-time high of 42.4%, with 9.2% of cases falling in the severe obesity category. Bariatric surgery results in significant weight loss through two of the most popular options, sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. One of the mechanisms through which these surgeries work is via the alteration of neural and hormonal appetite signaling, which leads to decreases in hunger and increases in fullness. The available measures for assessing hunger and fullness were not developed for use in bariatric surgery patients and do not capture physical hunger feelings or normal fullness. A longitudinal mixed-method study of 30 bariatric surgery patients (20% male, 20% African American) was designed to explore the physical and psychological feelings associated with hunger and fullness. Participants were recruited from an accredited bariatric surgery center and interviewed prior to surgery and 6 and 12-months after surgery. Transcripts were coded using a constant comparative method. Themes were created using a grounded theory approach. Different pathways were discovered such that participants' experiences of hunger and fullness varied compared to each other, as well as over time. Hunger had physical and psychological qualities, whereas fullness was generally only described as being physical. These results suggest that pre-surgery and post-surgery counseling should be customized in regard to appetite. Measures should be developed to better capture the true experiences of hunger and fullness among bariatric surgery patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's Murray-Darling Basin exemplifies complex governance challenges raised by large-scale trans-boundary river systems. The Basin contains a varied and fragmentary mosaic of human perspectives and practices, situated in a dynamic biophysical system that accounts for a significant portion of Australia's agricultural produce and is home to diverse and iconic ecosystems. Severe drought, high river-flow variability, and persistent ecosystem degradation have been impetus for water policy reforms culminating in the highly contested 2012 Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We analyzed public-record content from opinion editorials and speeches by policy elites, 2010-2012, to examine public discourses and discourse coalitions associated with development of the Plan. We focus on three domains of discourse: definition of problems, promotion of solutions, and assertions of fact. Discourses illustrated divergent, exclusionary, and largely un-reconciled perspectives about how water resources should be managed, as well as how plural interests should be represented in decision-making. We identify discourse coalition-linked narrative scripts, develop an understanding of constitutive dynamics relevant to ongoing processes of policy development and implementation, and discuss implications for adaptive governance of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand gastric bypass patients' experiences with managing food and eating for long-term weight management, this study examined patients' self-reported dietary changes and weight loss patterns. Thirteen women and three men between 15 months and 10 years post-gastric bypass surgery were recruited in Upstate New York. They completed two qualitative, in-depth interviews about their weight loss and dietary experiences. Using verbatim transcripts, researchers created timelines for each participant that summarized weight changes and the associated dietary behaviors. Constant comparative analysis of the timelines and transcripts identified a common, initial rapid weight loss period followed by weight stabilization, after which participants' weight loss patterns diverged into three possible long-term trajectories (Maintaining, Regained/Losing, and Regained) and one short-term trajectory (Losing). Dietary management over the periods of weight loss involved six components: physical needs, hunger and fullness, relationship with food, strategy use, habit formation, and awareness of eating. In the “honeymoon period” weight loss was “easy” because “surgery does the work” in limiting appetite, portion sizes, and interest in foods. As weight stabilized, “the work begins” as participants became capable of eating a greater quantity and a wider variety of foods. Differences in weight loss trajectories were associated with participants' abilities to maintain changes in relationship with food, dietary strategies and habits, and awareness of eating behaviors. Viewing weight loss outcomes of gastric bypass surgery as trajectories that develop as the result of dietary transitions and changes in dietary management suggests that patients need to be counseled on a variety of cognitive and behavioral strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following gastric bypass surgery, patients must make dramatic dietary changes, but little is known about patients' perspectives on long-term dietary management after this surgery. This grounded theory, qualitative study sought to advance conceptual understanding of food choice by examining how gastric bypass patients constructed personal food systems to guide food and eating behaviors 12 months post-surgery. Two in-depth interviews were conducted with each of 16 adults, purposively sampled from bariatric support groups. Using constant comparative analysis of verbatim interview transcripts, researchers identified participants' goal-strategy-monitoring networks representing how participants used specific food and eating behaviors towards their main goals of: Weight Management, Overall Health, Avoiding Negative Reactions to Eating, and Integrating Dietary Changes with Daily Life. Linked to each main goal was a hierarchy of intermediary goals, strategies, and tactics. Participants used monitoring behaviors to assess strategy effectiveness towards goal achievement. Individuals' Weight Management networks were compared to uncover similarities and differences among strategy use and monitoring methods among those who maintained weight loss and those who regained weight. The complex, multilevel goal-strategy-monitoring networks identified illustrate the "work" involved in constructing new personal food systems after surgery, as well as advance understanding of strategies as a component of people's personal food systems. These findings provide researchers and practitioners with insight into the long-term dietary issues that gastric bypass patients face and a potential method for representing how people relate deliberate dietary behaviors to their goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human geography has driven substantive improvements in methodologies and applications of Geographic Information Systems ( GISs), yet Indigenous groups continue to experience erasure in geographic representations. GIS ontologies comprise categorised labels that represent lived contexts, and these ontologies are determined through the shared worldviews of those labelling spatial phenomena for entry into GIS databases. Although Western ontologies and spatial representations reflect Western understandings of human experience, they are often inappropriate in Indigenous contexts. In efforts to be represented in courts and land management, Indigenous groups nevertheless need to engage Western spatial representations to 'claim space'. This paper examines what GISs are and do and shows that GIS technology comes with strings attached to the myriad social contexts that continue to shape the field of GIScience. We show that Intellectual Property Rights Agreements can sever and control these 'strings'; the agreement between the Yorta Yorta Nation Aboriginal Corporation and university researchers reframes GIS from a technology of erasure to a technology of opportunity that enables Indigenous groups to define their own engagement. The visual and narrative outputs will contribute important understandings of the environmental crisis facing the Murray- Darling Basin and connect older and younger generations through knowledge sharing. We conclude the application of GIScience is never simply technological but always has potential to empower particular communities. Applying GIS technology to new circumstances is an engagement of new relationships in the social praxis of technology transfer, where worldviews meet and negotiations are made over what exists and how we know. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic ice sheet constitutes the largest reservoir of freshwater on earth, representing tens of meters of sea level rise if it were to melt completely. However, because of the remote location of the continent and the concomitant sparse data coverage, much remains unknown regarding the climate variability in Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean. This study uses the high-resolution ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data during 1979-2010 to calculate the meridional moisture transport associated with the mean circulation, planetary waves, and synoptic-scale systems. The resulting moisture flux, which is dominated by the synoptic scales, is largely consistent with results from theoretical assumptions and previous studies. Here, high interannual and regional variability in the total meridional moisture flux is found, with no significant trend over the last 30 years. Further, the variability of the meridional moisture flux cannot be explained by the southern annular mode or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, even in the Pacific sector. In addition, the Amundsen Sea sector experiences the highest variability in meridional moisture transport and reveals a statistically significant decrease in the moisture flux at synoptic scales along the coastal zone. These results suggest that the Amundsen Sea provides a window on the complex nature of atmospheric moisture transport in the high southern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray-Darling Basin incorporates Australia's three longest rivers and spans four states and one territory. It is important for an agricultural industry worth more than AUS$9 billion per year, but is also the life source and the spirit of the Indigenous Yorta Yorta people. Here, we address whether the interests of the Yorta Yorta people can encompass the common interest of the wider community in the Basin, and how the colonial legacy and climate change of the past century continue to influence the realization of the common interest moving forward. We find that shared regional governance with an agreed outcome supports the ongoing sustainability of the country and its people, but because of the legal history of Australia since colonization, recognition and mutual respect are no less important. Further, we note that the increasing climatic variability and changing climatic mechanisms that now exemplify the southeast of Australia corroborates the need for adaptive planning with longer time horizons. These lessons are supported by the customary law and practice of the Yorta Yorta people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An editorial is presented on the role of indigenous communities on the future of policy sciences, with a focus on culturally based strategies for human rights, sustainability, biodiversity management, and self-determination. Topics include poverty prevention for indigenous peoples, traditional environmental knowledge, and the interaction of humans with the environment.

This study aims to integrate scientific knowledge from a variety of disciplines with local experience to describe, contextually and in detail, the impact of flood events on the community of the Alpine Shire and current mitigation efforts to alleviate and reduce these impacts. The Myrtleford Floodplain Management Study was the cornerstone of the strategy to address the goal of reducing flood damage in the community. It was found that the most consequential deficiencies in the Myrtleford flood mitigation scheme decision process are related to flaws in four elements of the process: the articulation of goals; the development of appropriate knowledge support; the effectiveness of promotion; and the ability to move from invocation to application. The Alpine Shire can be used as a microcosm that can represent adaptation challenges in other communities to climate change and extreme events. This research contributes to the development of the conceptual and analytical framework of integrated assessments, while making concrete contributions to the development of adaptive policies in Alpine Shire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of postfire flooding, with emphasis on an event that occurred in the Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia, in 2003. Analysis and mesoscale modeling of the conditions surrounding the event suggests that the drivers of the extreme rainfall event were above-average precipitable water in the atmosphere, significant values of CAPE, producing strong updrafts within the thunderstorm capable of supporting large quantities of suspended water droplets, and thunderstorm cell regeneration in the same area. However, atmospheric instability was further enhanced by anabatic breezes, above-average boundary layer moisture, and increased surface heating resulting from reduced surface albedo and soil moisture of the recently burned fire surface. Flash flooding resulted, due to 1) the storm cells likely being pulse wet microbursts, 2) cell regeneration over the same area (very little horizontal movement), and 3) the small catchment size. It is likely that a further contributor to the observed flash flood was the reduced infiltration often observed in recently burned catchments; these factors will be explored in a subsequent hydrologic study. It is intended that the mechanisms elucidated in this study will assist in emergency preparedness in the Alpine Shire. Given the warmer conditions expected with near-term anthropogenic climate change for the Alpine Shire, and the concomitant increase in fires, this causal relationship, even for a relatively rare event, has implications for emergency managers and Alpine Shire residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of flooding in Barrow, Alaska, using as a basis the series of extreme events that have affected the community over the past 50 years. A numerical weather prediction model and a storm surge inundation model have been applied to the 21 case studies identified in National Weather Service data as high wind events. Based on this simulation work flow, a reduced-form model that adequately describes the flooding response has been developed. Specifically, it was found that when wind is forecast to be greater than 13 m s-1 (30 mph) for at least 20 h, this is the most accurate predictor of the possibility of damaging flood. It was found that wind direction, the magnitude of fetch to the sea ice edge (when present), and maximum wind speed were in contrast relatively small contributors to the likelihood of flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts are being made to develop new paradigms for climate change adaptation policy at both the national and the international levels. However, progress in vulnerability and adaptation research has not been matched by advancement on practical policy initiatives. The complexity of the challenge to develop methods and means to support adaptation to climate change necessitates a diversity of approaches. This diversity is healthy, and yet it is possible to define some key characteristics and tools that can promote practical outcomes. In this paper, some methodologies that have proved successful are reviewed. These include a mapping of contextual circumstances, an appreciation for multiple perspectives, and the importance of a "boundary object" in forging strong interactions among project participants. Further, a toolkit of approaches for natural scientists is presented. This toolkit can be used to organize work in collaboration with stakeholders and other participants and can help overcome barriers to a meaningful contribution to the policy process. Fundamentally, this challenge will require approaches that are more grounded in meaning, narration, and reflection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Burning has been a near-continuous feature of the Australian environment but has become progressively more important since the mid-Tertiary, associated with the development of the characteristic sclerophyll vegetation. In the Quaternary, the extent of burning has varied temporally and regionally with glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Burning during glacial periods was reduced in drier areas, presumably because of a critical reduction in fuel availability, but increased in relatively wetter areas where fuel levels were high. On both glacial and Holocene timescales, peaks in charcoal often accompany transitions between fire-insensitive vegetation types, suggesting that burning is facilitated during periods of climate change and environmental instability. This suggestion has been supported by the demonstration of close relationships between fire and El Niño activity. Burning has also increased progressively over the past few hundred thousand years with major accelerations around the time of first human settlement of the continent and with the arrival of Europeans. To provide a firmer base for application of paleofire records to environmental management, there is an urgent need for a spatially more-substantial coverage of high-resolution fire records with good chronological control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimates of the spatial and temporal variation in terrestrial water and energy fluxes and mean states are important for simulating regional hydrology and biogeochemistry in high-latitude regions. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop high-resolution hydroclimatological datasets at finer spatial resolutions than are currently available from global analyses. This study uses a regional climate model (RCM) to develop a hydroclimatological dataset for hydrologic and ecological application in the Western Arctic. The fifth-generation Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) forced by global reanalysis products at the boundaries is used to perform 12 yr of simulation (1990 through 2001) over the Western Arctic. An analysis that compares the RCM simulations with independent observationally derived data sources is conducted to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of the mean states, variability, and trends during the period of simulation. The RCM simulation of sea level pressure agrees well with the reanalysis in terms of mean states, seasonality, and interannual variability. The RCM also simulates major spatial patterns of the observed climatology of surface air temperature (SAT), but RCM SAT is generally colder in the summertime and warmer in the wintertime in comparison with other datasets. Although there are biases in the mean state of SAT, the RCM simulations of the seasonal and interannual variability of SAT are similar to variability in observationally derived datasets. The RCM also simulates general spatial patterns of observed rainfall, but the modeled mean state of precipitation is characterized by large biases relative to observationally derived datasets. In particular, the RCM tends to overestimate coastal region precipitation but underestimates precipitation in the interior of the Western Arctic. The Arctic terrestrial surface climate trends for the period of 1992 to 2001 of the RCM are similar to those derived from observations, with sea level pressure decreasing 0.15 hPa decade-1, SAT increasing 0.10°C decade-1, and precipitation decreasing slightly in the RCM simulations. In summary, the RCM dataset produced in this study represents an improvement over data currently available from large-scale global reanalysis and provides a consistent meteorological forcing dataset for hydrologic and ecological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the late twentieth century and the twenty-first century predictions of Antarctic circulation patterns in a ten model ensemble of global climate system models, using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs), is presented. The model simulations, and this analysis, were conducted in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report. An application of the methodology to twentieth century reanalyses resulted in conclusions congruent with earlier synoptic climatologies that used different techniques. It was found that the SOM method is a useful tool for diagnosing differences among a large cohort of often quite divergent simulations, allowing the rapid identification of outliers. Some models do rather poorly at simulating the present day Antarctic circulation, but taking these outliers into account and considering the models as an ensemble, the simulations of twentieth century circulation are reasonable. The most notable outlier was the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques model (also known as ARPEGE), which was unable to simulate Southern Ocean cyclones. Also of interest was the excessive cyclogenesis displayed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 model. The trend towards increasing cyclonicity and stronger zonal winds is quite consistent among models, and is also reflected in an increase in positive Antarctic oscillation (AAO) index. The coherence of temperature and precipitation anomaly patterns and their trends reflects the extent to which these are related to circulation. It is clear from this analysis that several of the models in this ensemble are capable of predicting the Antarctic Peninsula warming as the rest of the continent cools-this is an important advance in our simulation capacity. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing demand for regional-scale climate predictions and assessments. Quantifying the impacts of uncertainty in initial conditions and lateral boundary forcing data on regional model simulations can potentially add value to the usefulness of regional climate modeling. Results from a regional model depend on the realism of the driving data from either global model outputs or global analyses; therefore, any biases in the driving data will be carried through to the regional model. This study used four popular global analyses and achieved 16 driving datasets by using different interpolation procedures. The spread of the 16 datasets represents a possible range of driving data based on analyses to the regional model. This spread is smaller than typically associated with global climate model realizations of the Arctic climate. Three groups of 16 realizations were conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) in an Arctic domain, varying both initial and lateral boundary conditions, varying lateral boundary forcing only, and varying initial conditions only. The response of monthly mean atmospheric states to the variations in initial and lateral driving data was investigated. Uncertainty in the regional model is induced by the interaction between biases from different sources. Because of the nonlinearity of the problem, contributions from initial and lateral boundary conditions are not additive. For monthly mean atmospheric states, biases in lateral boundary conditions generally contribute more to the overall uncertainty than biases in the initial conditions. The impact of initial condition variations decreases with the simulation length while the impact of variations in lateral boundary forcing shows no clear trend. This suggests that the representativeness of the lateral boundary forcing plays a critical role in long-term regional climate modeling. The extent of impact of the driving data uncertainties on regional climate modeling is variable dependent. For some sensitive variables (e.g., precipitation, boundary layer height), even the interior of the model may be significantly affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research we examined the influence of athletic roles upon the perceived gender role orientations of male and female athletes. Participants were 148 students who read a bogus newspaper article that described either a male or female athlete who had successfully competed in an athletic event. The type of sport (football, basketball, and cheerleading) was manipulated. Female football players and basketball players were perceived as higher in agency than female cheerleaders. Male cheerleaders were perceived as higher in communality than male football players and male basketball players. Participants made external attributions concerning the motivations of athletes who competed in gender traditional sports. They made internal attributions concerning the motivations of athletes who competed in gender nontraditional sports. These findings are examined in relation to social role theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beaufort–Chukchi cyclones of October 1963 and August 2000 produced the highest winds ever recorded in Barrow, Alaska. In both cases, winds of 25 m s[sup -1] were observed with gusts unofficially reported at 33 m s[sup -1] . The October 1963 storm caused significant flooding, contaminated drinking water, and interrupted power supplies. The August 2000 storm caused the wreck of a $6 million dredge, and removed roofs from 40 buildings. Both storms were unusual in that they tracked eastward from the East Siberian Sea into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, rather than following a more typical northward track into the Arctic Ocean. This paper addresses, through modeling and analysis, the development processes of these two storms. The October 1963 system was a long-lived, warm core, zonally elongated cyclone that traversed around the Arctic basin through the Canadian Archipelago. The August 2000 system was an open-wave cyclone that dissipated rapidly into a weak, cold core eddy in the Alaskan sector of the Beaufort Sea. Approximating the contributions to development using terms in a quasigeostrophic omega equation, it was found that both storms were characterized by the increasing importance of the convergence of the Q vector (representing differential vorticity advection and thermal advection) in the midtroposphere, at the expense of forcing by the turbulent fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum in the boundary layer. However, the influence of surface turbulent fluxes in the early stages of development was important, particularly for the August 2000 cyclone, which passed over an extensive coastal lead in the East Siberian Sea. This study concludes that the observed retreat in western Arctic ice cover is unlikely to be an important contributor to increasing cyclonic activity in the region, but that ice retreat north of Eurasia could have an impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experiments have been conducted with a regional climate model to indicate the conditions required to generate preferred regions of frontal activity in the Alaskan region. Several objective methods of frontal identification were first investigated. It was found that· the vertical component of relative vorticity,· a thermal front parameter -&nablaB;|&nablaB;T[sub 850] | · n, where T[sub 850] is the 850-hPa temperature and n is a unit vector in the direction of the 850-hPa temperature gradient, and· a parameter derived from the Q vector as a measure of vertical motionwere useful in combination to determine the occurrence of fronts. The preferred locations for frontal activity were located to the southern side of the eastern Brooks Range and over the Alaska Range. These diagnostics were then used to characterize frontal frequency in a series of experiments removing topographic and vegetation contrasts. It was found that the removal of the treeline contrast and its associated heating gradient had a small effect on frontal frequency in the immediate vicinity of the tree line, but that the largest impact was in response to the removal of topography, greatly reducing frontal frequency. The coastal contrast was found to have a limited role in synoptic frontal activity in the Alaskan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mosses dominate the surface cover in high northern latitudes and have the potential to play a key role in modifying the thermal and hydrologic regime of Arctic soils. These modifications in turn feed back to influence surface energy exchanges and hence may affect regional climate. However, mosses are poorly represented in models of the land surface. In this study the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM) was modified in two ways. First, additional soil texture types including mosses and lichens were added to more realistically represent northern soils. Second, the LSM was also modified so that a different soil texture type could be specified for each layer. Several experiments were performed using climate data from an Arctic tundra site in 1995. The model was run for a homogeneous loam soil column and then also for columns that included moss, lichen, peat, and sand. The addition of a surface layer of moss underlain by peat and loam had a substantial impact on modeled surface processes. First, moss acted as an insulative layer producing cooler summer temperatures (6.9°C lower at 0.5 m) and warmer winter temperatures (2.3°C higher at 0.5 m) when compared with a homogenous loam soil column. Second, a soil column with a moss surface had a greater surface infiltration, leading to greater storage of soil moisture in lower layers when compared with a homogeneous loam column. Last, moss modulated the surface energy exchanges by decreasing soil heat flux (57% in July) and increasing turbulent fluxes of heat (67% in July) and moisture (15% in July). Mosses were also more effective contributors to total latent heating than was a bare loam surface. These results suggest that the addition of moss and the ability to prescribe different soil textures for different soil layers result in a more plausible distribution of heat and water within the column and that these modifications should be incorporated into regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Calculations of a thermal front parameter using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data over the period 1979-98 reveal a relative maximum in frontal frequencies during summer along northern Eurasia from about 60 degrees to 70 degrees N, best expressed over the eastern half of the continent. A similar relative maximum is found over Alaska, which is present year-round although best expressed in summer. These high-latitude features can be clearly distinguished from the polar frontal zone in the mid-latitudes of the Pacific basin and collectively resemble the summertime "Arctic frontal zone" discussed in several early studies. While some separation between high- and midlatitude frontal activity is observed in all seasons, the summer season is distinguished by the development of an attendant mean baroclinic zone aligned roughly along the Arctic Ocean coastline and associated wind maxima in the upper troposphere. The regions of maximum summer frontal frequency correspond to preferred areas of cyclogenesis and to where the summertime contribution to annual precipitation is most dominant. Cyclones generated in association with the Eurasian frontal zone often track into the central Arctic Ocean, where they may have an impact on the sea-ice circulation. Development of the summertime Eurasian frontal zone and the summertime strengthening of the Alaskan feature appear to be largely driven by differential heating between the cold Arctic Ocean and warm snow-free land. Frontal activity also shows an association with orography. Several studies have argued that the location of the summer Arctic frontal zone may be in part determined by discontinuities in energy exchange along... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that the amplitude of the annual atmospheric carbon dioxide cycle has increased. Lagged correlations between carbon dioxide, temperature, and vegetation suggest a modulation by ecosystem response, but the mechanisms remain unclear. Hypotheses include an early season uptake increase and/or winter respiration increase related to climate warming, and increased cycling in cooler conditions caused by disturbances such as fire. The first hypotheses suggest a positive feedback to regional warming, whereas the last suggests a negative feedback. Here it is shown that fire, as it influences species composition, can serve to enhance the increase in early season uptake but that a crucial determinant for the sign of the feedback is the impact of climate change on soil moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this, the second part of the analysis of an Antarctic regional climate system model, the model results and analyses are compared to a series of observational data from automated weather stations at a number of Antarctic stations, radiosonde launches, and surface energy balance climatology. The observational analyses show sig-nificant biases in comparison with station data, which is attributable in part to the errors in and low resolution of the elevation dataset. This is a factor in model performance also. Further, a dominant factor in the generation of the model biases is the simulation of atmospheric water vapor and cloud. The known "cold" bias in the clear-sky longwave radiation scheme is amply compensated for by excessive cloudiness in many cases. The strong vertical moisture transport contributes to the excessive cloud formation. The biases explored in detail in this paper are common to regional and global simulations of the Antarctic region and highlight areas in which model development should be concentrated, particularly in coupled models with greater degrees of freedom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A coupled atmosphere--ice regional model previously used for simulations in the Arctic has been implemented in the Antarctic. Three 14-month simulations were performed for 1988-89, with different oceanic specifications. The year 1988 was interesting as there were several sensible heat polynya events in the Cosmonaut Sea region, the investigation of which is the goal of future finer-resolution simulations. Overall, the regional climate model produces reasonable simulations of the Antarctic at 100-km resolution. Root-mean-square errors range from 4 hPa in surface pressure, 4 K in near-surface air temperature, and 3 m s 21 in near-surface winds, to 1 K in air temperature and 2 m s 21 in winds at the 500-hPa level. Tests of the coupled system response to oceanic heat flux suggest that the sea-ice simulation is more sensitive than the atmospheric circulation, but it could be expected that the atmosphere would respond to these changes in sea ice over longer time periods than those of interest here. This sensitivity argues for the need for interactive ocean thermodynamics to successfully simulate Antarctic sea-ice distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the challenges posed by extreme weather and climate-related events and the inadequacy of current resilience and adaptation frameworks. It discusses the "Exploring Unprecedented Extremes" workshop held in Montreal, Canada, which aimed to address the research gap in understanding and preparing for these events. The workshop emphasized the need for transformational changes in governance and the integration of diverse perspectives to effectively respond to climate extremes. It also highlighted the importance of effective communication and coproduction of knowledge in bridging the gap between scientific research and decision-making. The article provides examples of recent extreme events and emphasizes the urgency of addressing these challenges. It discusses the importance of understanding different ways of knowing and establishing trust in research collaborations, as well as exploring various modeling approaches used to study climate change and extreme weather events. The text concludes by emphasizing the need for a shift in perspective and the adoption of transdisciplinary approaches to effectively address climate extremes. The workshop served as a foundation for examining the impacts of climate change and identifying strategies for adaptation and transformation, and the text emphasizes the urgency of taking action and promoting understanding among individuals, communities, and organizations. [Extracted from the article]

Providing interventions that facilitate improvement of dietary intake and other health behaviors can improve nutrition-related outcomes in adults with overweight or obesity. Medical nutrition therapy (MNT) behavioral interventions require expertise from registered dietitian nutritionists or international equivalents (dietitians), which no other health care provider can provide for adults with obesity. Current evidence supports the role of MNT behavioral interventions for adults with overweight or obesity as an effective treatment option, when appropriate for and desired by the client. This Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Position Paper describes potential benefits and concerns regarding dietitian-provided MNT behavioral interventions for adults with overweight and obesity and informs dietitians about implications for practice. This Position Paper is supported by a systematic review examining effectiveness of MNT interventions provided by dietitians and by an evidence-based practice guideline. It is the position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics that MNT behavioral interventions for adults (aged 18 years and older) with overweight or obesity should be a treatment option, when appropriate and desired by the client, to improve cardiometabolic, quality of life, and anthropometric outcomes. Dietitians providing MNT recognize the complex contributors to overweight and obesity, and thus individualize interventions, based on a shared decision-making process, and deliver interventions in an inclusive, compassionate, and client-centered manner. Interventions should include collaboration with an interprofessional team when needed. Dietitians strive to increase health equity and reduce health disparities by advocating and providing opportunities for increased access to effective nutrition care services. This position remains in effect until December 31, 2031. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

September open water fraction in the Arctic is analyzed using the satellite era record of ice concentration (1979-2017). Evidence is presented that three breakpoints (shifts in the mean) occurred in the Pacific sector, with higher amounts of open water starting in 1989, 2002, and 2007. Breakpoints in the Atlantic sector record of open water are evident in 1971 in longer records, and around 2000 and 2011. Multiple breakpoints are also evident in the Canadian and Russian halves. Statistical models that use detected breakpoints of the Pacific and Atlantic sectors, as well as models with breakpoints in the Canadian and Russian halves and the Arctic as a whole, outperform linear trend models in fitting the data. From a physical standpoint, the results support the thesis that Arctic sea ice may have critical points beyond which a return to the previous state is less likely. From an analysis standpoint, the findings imply that de-meaning the data using the breakpoint means is less likely to cause spurious signals than employing a linear detrend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reviews the book "Living Proof: The Essential Data-Collection Guide for Indigenous Use-And-Occupancy Map Surveys" by Terry N. Tobias.

An analysis of late twentieth and twenty-first century predictions of Arctic circulation patterns in a ten-model ensemble of global climate system models, using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs), is presented. The model simulations were conducted in support of the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). The analysis demonstrates the utility of SOMs for climate analysis, both as a tool to evaluate the accuracy of climate model predictions, and to provide a useful alternative view of future climate change. It is found that not all models accurately simulate the frequency of occurrence of Arctic circulation patterns. Some of the models tend to overpredict strong high-pressure patterns while other models overpredict the intensity of cyclonic circulation regimes. In general, the ensemble of models predicts an increase in cyclonically dominated circulation patterns during both the winter and summer seasons, with the largest changes occurring during the first half of the twenty-first century. Analysis of temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the different circulation patterns reveals coherent patterns that are consistent with the different circulation regimes and highlight the dependence of local changes in these quantities to changes in the synoptic scale circulation patterns. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Obesity continues to be a major public health crisis, both nationally and globally. Metabolic and bariatric surgery has been proven to be a safe and effective treatment for this multifactorial chronic disease. However, inconsistent and varied results in bariatric nutrition literature have prevented the implementation of standardized guidelines. The purpose of this Evidence Analysis Library systematic review is to provide an evidence-based summary of nutrition-related practices in bariatric surgery. The systematic review methodology of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics was applied. A total of 27 research studies were included, analyzed, and assessed for risk of bias by trained evidence analysts. The literature included in the systematic review was published from 2003 to 2015. Evaluation of the literature resulted in the development of five graded conclusion statements. Limited research demonstrates that registered dietitian nutritionists play a role in improving weight loss outcomes after bariatric surgery; further research is needed to understand the role of registered dietitian nutritionists in changing behaviors after bariatric surgery. Bariatric surgery results in significant reductions in resting metabolic rate and postoperative energy intake. There is no significant relationship between macronutrient distribution and postoperative weight loss. The graded conclusion statements provide registered dietitian nutritionists who practice in the field of bariatric nutrition with more insight and evidence that can guide and support their recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity is associated with a multitude of comorbidities and considerable health care costs. The objective of this review was to examine the efficacy of weight management interventions provided by a registered dietitian or international equivalent (referred to as "dietitian"). This systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examined the effect of weight management interventions provided by a dietitian, compared with usual care or no intervention, on several cardiometabolic outcomes and quality of life in adults with overweight or obesity. MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane CENTRAL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and CINAHL databases were searched for eligible RCTs published between January 2008 and January 2021 in the English language. Meta-analyses were conducted using a random-effects model, publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's statistics, and heterogeneity was assessed by interpreting I 2 values. Efficacy of intervention components, such as telehealth or group contacts, were explored in sub-group analyses. Version 2 of the risk-of-bias tool for RCTs was used to assess risk of bias. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation method was used to determine certainty of evidence. This systematic review included 62 RCTs. Compared with control conditions, weight management interventions provided by a dietitian resulted in improved body mass index (mean difference [MD] –1.5; 95% CI –1.74 to –1.26; moderate evidence certainty); percent weight loss (MD –4.01%; 95% CI –5.26% to –2.75%; high evidence certainty); waist circumference (MD –3.45 cm; 95% CI –4.39 to –2.51 cm; high evidence certainty); blood pressure (MD –3.04 mm Hg; 95% CI –5.10 to –0.98 mm Hg and MD –1.99 mm Hg; 95% CI –3.02 to –0.96 mm Hg for systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, respectively; moderate and low evidence certainty); and quality of life using the 36-Item Short Form Survey (MD 5.84; 95% CI 2.27 to 9.41 and 2.39; 95% CI 1.55 to 3.23 for physical and mental quality of life, respectively; low and moderate evidence certainty). For adults with overweight or obesity, weight management interventions provided by a dietitian are efficacious for improving several examined cardiometabolic outcomes and quality of life. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overweight and obesity affect most adults living in the United States and are causally linked to several adverse health outcomes. Registered dietitian nutritionists or international equivalents (dietitians) collaborate with each client and other health care professionals to meet client-centered goals, informed by the best available evidence, and translated through a lens of clinical expertise and client circumstances and preferences. Since the last iteration of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics guideline on adult weight management in 2014, considerable research has been conducted and circumstances confronting dietitians have evolved. Thus, updated guidance is needed. The objective of this evidence-based practice guideline is to provide recommendations for dietitians who deliver medical nutrition therapy behavioral interventions for adults (18 years and older) with overweight and obesity to improve cardiometabolic outcomes, quality of life, and weight outcomes, when appropriate for and desired by the client. Recommendations in this guideline highlight the importance of considering complex contributors to overweight and obesity and individualizing interventions to client-centered goals based on specific needs and preferences and shared decision making. The described recommendations have the potential to increase access to care and decrease costs through utilization of telehealth and group counseling as effective delivery methods, and to address other barriers to overweight and obesity management interventions. It is essential for dietitians to collaborate with clients and interprofessional health care teams to provide high-quality medical nutrition therapy interventions using the nutrition care process to promote attainment of client-centered outcomes for adults with overweight or obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This project developed a method for constructing eating maps that portray places, times, and people in an individual's eating episodes. Researchers used seven consecutive days of qualitative eating recall interviews from 42 purposively sampled U.S. adults to draw a composite eating map of eating sites, meals, and partners for each person on a template showing home, work, automobile, other homes, and other places. Participants evaluated their own maps and provided feedback. The eating maps revealed diverse places, times, and partners. Eating maps offer a flexible tool for eliciting, displaying, validating, and applying information to visualize eating patterns within contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-quality daily dataset of in situ mean sea level pressure was collated for Australia for the period from 1907 to 2006. This dataset was used to assess changes in daily synoptic pressure patterns over Australia in winter using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs). Twenty patterns derived from the in situ pressure observations were mapped to patterns derived from ERA-40 data to create daily synoptic pressure fields for the past century. Changes in the frequencies of these patterns were analyzed. The patterns that have been decreasing in frequency were generally those most strongly linked to variations in the southern annular mode (SAM) index, while patterns that have increased in frequency were more strongly correlated with variations in the positive phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In general, there has been a reduction in the rain-bearing systems affecting southern Australia since the beginning of the twentieth century. Over the past century, reductions in the frequencies of synoptic patterns with a marked trough to the south of the country were shown to be linked to significant reductions in severe storms in southeast Australia and decreases in rainfall at four major Australian cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth. Of these, Perth showed the most sustained decline in both the mean and extremes of rainfall linked to changes in the large-scale weather systems affecting Australia over the past century. The results suggest a century-long decline in the frequency of low pressure systems reaching southern Australia, consistent with the southward movement of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. While most of these trends were not significant, associated changes in rainfall and storminess appear to have had significant impacts in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the fourth assessment report (AR4) on climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This process produced an extensive set of recommendations which include improved process-level understanding and climate monitoring systems. The report aimed at improving the ability to predict and understand climate change impacts, and societal and ecosystem vulnerabilities. Efforts are needed to improve the ability of models to reproduce fundamental aspects of the climate system, such as circulation and precipitation patterns as well as to reproduce other impact-relevant variables. In addition to the focus on global predictions, there should be increased focus on regional-scale climate information and biosphere-atmosphere interactions.