Search

Background/Aims: Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) can achieve a sustained virologic response if they received pegylated interferon plus ribavirin therapy; however, some of them do not respond or relapse after treatment. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of two statistical models to predict treatment outcomes. Methods: Clinical data, biochemical values, and liver histological features of 107 patients with CHC were collected and assessed using a logistic regression (LR) model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Both the LR and ANN models were compared by receiver-operating characteristics curves. Results: Aspartate aminotransferase (p = 0.017), prothrombin time (p = 0.002), body mass index (BMI; p = 0.003), and fibrosis score of liver histology (p = 0.002) were found to be significant predictive factors by univariate analysis. The independent significant predicting factor was BMI by multivariate LR analysis (p = 0.0095). The area under receiver-operating characteristics of the ANN model was larger than that of the LR model (85 vs. 58.4%). Conclusions: It was found that BMI is an independent factor for identifying patients with favorable treatment response. A useful ANN model in predicting outcomes of standard treatment for CHC infection was developed and showed greater accuracy than the LR model. Copyright © 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Background: The serum gradient of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) varies over time after cessation of nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The association between the time-varying HBsAg serum gradient and risk of relapse has not been elucidated.Methods: This multicenter cohort study prospectively enrolled CHB patients who discontinued 3 year-NA treatment. Eligible patients were serologically negative for HBeAg and viral DNA at NA cessation. The participants (n = 140) were followed every 3 months through HBsAg quantification. Virological and clinical relapses were defined as viral DNA levels >2000 IU/mL and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels >80 U/mL, respectively. The association of time-varying HBsAg levels with relapses was assessed through a time-dependent Cox analysis.Results: During a median follow-up of 19.9 (interquartile range [IQR], 10.6-25.3) months, virological and clinical relapses occurred in 94 and 49 patients, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 79.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70.9%-86.4%) and 42.9% (95% CI, 34.1%-52.8%), respectively. The serum level of HBsAg was associated with virological (P < 0.001) and clinical (P = 0.01) relapses in a dose-response manner, with adjusted hazard ratios of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.45-3.04) and 2.32 (95% CI, 1.28-4.21). Among the patients (n = 19) whose HBsAg levels ever dropped below 10 IU/mL, only one and three patients subsequently developed clinical and virological relapses.Conclusion: The serum gradient of HBsAg measured throughout the off-therapy observation is associated with the subsequent occurrence of virological and clinical relapses in CHB patients who discontinue NA treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...