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Tests the accuracy of the annual forecasts made by the Organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) and Development and the International Monetary Fund of real domestic product (GDP) growth, GDP deflator, unemployment and trade balance. 25-year comparison for each OECD country; Failure in forecasting cyclical turning points; Superiority over `naive' forecasting models.

Voluntary Import Expansion is a policy under which one country (Japan) agrees to import a minimum quantity of a commodity from another country (U.S.) It turns out that Japan is better off under an equivalent export subsidy; the U.S. is better off under a VIE; and the welfare of a third-country is higher under a policy which improves its terms of trade. The "optimum" VIE for the U.S. results in a trade equilibrium point where the U.S. offer curve is of unitary elasticity. We also consider the case of a U.S. export which is a Giffen good in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs several methods to estimate the trade creation and diversion effects of EC enlargement. Treating the original EEC and EFTA each as one country it compares total and external imports and the ratios of these imports to consumption between 1970/71 and 1977/78. The comparable figures for U.S., Canada and Japan are used as a 'normalizer'. Based on several approaches, 1978 trade creation is estimated at $28 billion and diversion at $5 billion, with an implied substitution elasticity between European and non-European sources of 32 The results are consistent with independent estimates constructed for the period 1959/60 to 1977/78, namely, the two stages of integration combined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a response to the comments for the articles analyzing tariffs and quotas. Evaluation of tariffs and quotas in a dynamic setting; Quantity responses generated by the shifts in domestic supply and demand; Dependence on the effects of tariffs and quotas in changing markets with the welfare.

Provides a rejoinder to Richard Pomfret's comment on the authors' study of the effect of North American and European integration on Asian countries. Purpose of the partial equilibrium regression analysis used in the study; Cause of bias; Computation of disaggregated substitution elasticities.