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Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. Background: Most countries use the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM), antenatal care routine HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment data to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women. Nonrepresentative program data may lead to inaccurate estimates of HIV prevalence and treatment coverage for pregnant women. Setting: One hundred fifty-four countries and subnational locations across 126 countries. Methods: Using 2023 UNAIDS HIV estimates, we calculated 3 ratios: (1) HIV prevalence among pregnant women to all women 15–49 yrs (prevalence), (2) ART coverage before pregnancy to women 15–49 yrs ART coverage (ART prepregnancy), and (3) ART coverage at delivery to women 15–49 yrs ART coverage (PMTCT coverage). We developed an algorithm to identify and adjust inconsistent results within regional ranges in Spectrum-AIM, illustrated using Burkina Faso estimates. Results: In 2022, the mean regional ratio of prevalence among pregnant women to all women ranged from 0.68 to 0.95. ART coverage prepregnancy ranged by region from 0.40 to 1.22 times ART coverage among all women. Mean regional PMTCT coverage ratios ranged from 0.85 to 1.51. The prevalence ratio in Burkina Faso was 1.59, above the typical range 0.62–1.04 in western and central Africa. Antenatal clinics reported more PMTCT recipients than estimated HIV-positive pregnant women from 2015 to 2019. We adjusted inputted PMTCT program data to enable consistency of HIV prevalence among pregnant women from programmatic routine HIV testing at antenatal clinics with values typical for western and central Africa. Conclusions: These ratios offer Spectrum-AIM users a tool to gauge the consistency of their HIV prevalence and treatment coverage estimates among pregnant women with other countries in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Spectrum-STI model, structured by sub-groups within a population, was used in a workshop in Yunnan, China, to estimate provincial trends in active syphilis in 15 to 49-year-old adults. Syphilis prevalence data from female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and lower-risk women and men in Yunnan were identified through literature searches and local experts. Sources included antenatal care clinic screening, blood donor screening, HIV/STI bio-behavioural surveys, sentinel surveillance, and epidemiology studies. The 2017 provincial syphilis prevalence estimates were 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.17–0.34%) in women and 0.28% (0.20–0.36%) in men. Estimated prevalence was 6.8-fold higher in FSW (1.69% (0.68–3.97%) than in lower-risk women (0.25% (0.18–0.35%)), and 22.7-fold higher in MSM (5.35% (2.74–12.47%) than in lower-risk men (0.24% (0.17–0.31%). For all populations, the 2017 estimates were below the 2005 estimates, but differences were not significant. In 2017 FSW and MSM together accounted for 9.3% of prevalent cases. These estimates suggest Yunnan's STI programs have kept the overall prevalence of syphilis low, but prevalence remains high in FSW and MSM. Strengthening efforts targeting FSW and MSM, and identification of other risk populations e.g. among heterosexual men, are critical to reduce syphilis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2007 the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the global initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis (congenital syphilis, or CS). To assess progress towards the goal of <50 CS cases per 100,000 live births, we generated regional and global estimates of maternal and congenital syphilis for 2016 and updated the 2012 estimates. Methods: Maternal syphilis estimates were generated using the Spectrum-STI model, fitted to sentinel surveys and routine testing of pregnant women during antenatal care (ANC) and other representative population data. Global and regional estimates of CS used the same approach as previous WHO estimates. Results: The estimated global maternal syphilis prevalence in 2016 was 0.69% (95% confidence interval: 0.57–0.81%) resulting in a global CS rate of 473 (385–561) per 100,000 live births and 661,000 (538,000–784,000) total CS cases, including 355,000 (290,000–419,000) adverse birth outcomes (ABO) and 306,000 (249,000–363,000) non-clinical CS cases (infants without clinical signs born to un-treated mothers). The ABOs included 143,000 early fetal deaths and stillbirths, 61,000 neonatal deaths, 41,000 preterm or low-birth weight births, and 109,000 infants with clinical CS. Of these ABOs– 203,000 (57%) occurred in pregnant women attending ANC but not screened for syphilis; 74,000 (21%) in mothers not enrolled in ANC, 55,000 (16%) in mothers screened but not treated, and 23,000 (6%) in mothers enrolled, screened and treated. The revised 2012 estimates were 0.70% (95% CI: 0.63–0.77%) maternal prevalence, and 748,000 CS cases (539 per 100,000 live births) including 397,000 (361,000–432,000) ABOs. The estimated decrease in CS case rates between 2012 and 2016 reflected increased access to ANC and to syphilis screening and treatment. Conclusions: Congenital syphilis decreased worldwide between 2012 and 2016, although maternal prevalence was stable. Achieving global CS elimination, however, will require improving access to early syphilis screening and treatment in ANC, clinically monitoring all women diagnosed with syphilis and their infants, improving partner management, and reducing syphilis prevalence in the general population by expanding testing, treatment and partner referral beyond ANC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. To estimate adult (15-49 years old) prevalence and incidence of active syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydia, and incidence of congenital syphilis (CS) and adverse birth outcomes (ABOs) in Colombia, over 1995-2016. Methods. The Spectrum-STI epidemiological model tool estimated gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalences as moving averages across prevalences observed in representative general population surveys. For adult syphilis, Spectrum-STI applied segmented polynomial regression through prevalence data from antenatal care (ANC) surveys, routine ANC-based screening, and general population surveys. CS cases and ABOs were estimated from Spectrum's maternal syphilis estimates and proportions of women screened and treated for syphilis, applying World Health Organization case definitions and risk probabilities. Results. The Spectrum model estimated prevalences in 2016 of 0.70% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15%-1.9%) in women and 0.60% (0.1%-1.9%) in men for gonorrhea and of 9.2% (4.4%- 15.4%) in women and 7.4% (3.5%-14.7%) in men for chlamydia, without evidence for trends over 1995-2016. The prevalence of active syphilis in 2016 was 1.25% (1.22-1.29%) in women and 1.25% (1.1%-1.4%) in men, decreasing from 2.6% (2.1%-3.2%) in women in 1995. Corresponding CS cases in 2016 (including cases without clinical symptoms) totaled 3 851, of which 2 245 were ABOs. Annual CS and ABO estimates decreased over 2008-2016, reflecting decreasing maternal prevalence and increasing cases averted through ANC-based screening and treatment. Conclusions. The available surveillance and monitoring data synthesized in Spectrum- STI-and the resulting first-ever national STI estimates for Colombia-highlighted Colombia's persistently high STI burden. Adult syphilis and congenital syphilis are estimated to be falling, reflecting improving screening efforts. Strengthened surveillance, including with periodic screening in low-risk populations and future refined Spectrum estimations, should support planning and implementation of STI prevention and control, including CS elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melanie Taylor and colleagues discuss global initiatives for surveillance of sexually transmitted diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In 2016 the World Health Assembly adopted the global strategy on Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) 2016–2021 aiming to reduce curable STIs by 90% by 2030. We costed scaling-up priority interventions to coverage targets. Methods: Strategy-targeted declines in Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Treponema pallidum and Trichomonas vaginalis were applied to WHO-estimated regional burdens at 2012. Syndromic case management was costed for these curable STIs, symptomatic Herpes Simplex Virus 2 (HSV-2), and non-STI vaginal syndromes, with incrementally expanding etiologic diagnosis. Service unit costs were multiplied with clinic attendances and people targeted for screening or prevention, by income tier. Human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination and screening were costed for coverage increasing to 60% of 10-year-old girls for vaccination, and 60% of women 30–49 years for twice-lifetime screening (including clinical follow-up for positive screens), by 2021. Results: Strategy implementation will cost an estimated US$ 18.1 billion over 2016–2021 in 117 low- and middle-income countries. Cost drivers are HPV vaccination ($3.26 billion) and screening ($3.69 billion), adolescent chlamydia screening ($2.54 billion), and antenatal syphilis screening ($1.4 billion). Clinical management—of 18 million genital ulcers, 29–39 million urethral discharges and 42–53 million vaginal discharges annually—will cost $3.0 billion, including $818 million for service delivery and $1.4 billion for gonorrhea and chlamydia testing. Global costs increase from $2.6 billion to $ 4.0 billion over 2016–2021, driven by HPV services scale-up, despite vaccine price reduction. Sub-Saharan Africa, bearing 40% of curable STI burdens, covers 44% of global service needs and 30% of cost, the Western Pacific 15% of burden/need and 26% of cost, South-East Asia 20% of burden/need and 18% of cost. Conclusions: Costs of global STI control depend on price trends for HPV vaccines and chlamydia tests. Middle-income and especially low-income countries need increased investment, innovative financing, and synergizing with other health programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool. Methods: The dynamic Plasmodium falciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings. Results: Selected (best) GLMs explained 94-97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86-97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74-95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5-7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached. Conclusion: Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the feasibility of distributing micronutrient powders (MNP) for home fortification during biannual Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health Week (MNCHW) events, as a strategy to improve young child nutrition.Design: We evaluated the coverage, delivery, use and adherence of MNP, and associated behaviour change communication (BCC) materials and social mobilization, through cross-sectional surveys of caregivers attending health-service distribution events and health workers involved in MNP distribution, facility-based observations of MNP distribution activities and a repeated survey of caregivers in their homes who received MNP for their child.Setting: Four Local Government Areas in Benue State, Nigeria.Subjects: Caregivers of children 6-59 months of age attending health-service distribution events.Results: The 8 million MNP delivered in this pilot during three distribution events were estimated to reach about one-third of eligible children in the area at each event. Programme fidelity was limited by shortages of MNP, BCC materials and inadequate social mobilization, with some limitations in health worker training and engagement. MNP use was consistent with the recommended two or three sachets per week among 51-69 % of caregivers surveyed at home.Conclusions: MNP coverage was low, but consistent with that typically achieved with other services delivered through MNCHW in Benue. Among caregivers who received MNP, acceptance and use among targeted children was high. While some weaknesses in knowledge and delivery of MNP by health workers were observed, health system strengthening and more extensive social mobilization would be key to achieving higher coverage with MNP and other health services provided through MNCHW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Mozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015–2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP). Methods: The HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments. Results: Implementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for ‘Current targets’, or US$ 495 million in 2019 for ‘Accelerated scale-up’. The ‘Accelerated scale-up’ would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics). Conclusion: The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS’ ‘Fast track’ targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since its founding in 2002, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) has become the dominant multilateral health financier in low- and middle-income countries. The health impact of the Global Fund remains unknown because existing evaluations measure intermediate outcomes or do not account for preexisting and counterfactual trends.Methods: We conducted an econometric analysis of data from all countries eligible to receive Global Fund grants from 1995 to 2010, prior to and during the Global Fund's activities. We analyzed three outcomes: all-cause adult (15-59 years), all-cause under-five, and malaria-specific under-five mortality. Our main exposure was a continuous longitudinal measure of Global Fund disbursements per capita. We used panel fixed effect regressions, and analyzed mortality trends controlling for health spending, health worker density (a measure of health system capacity), gross domestic product, urbanization, and country fixed-effects.Results and Discussion: We find that following Global Fund disbursements, adult mortality rate declined by 1.4 % per year faster with every $10 per capita increase in disbursements (p = 0.005). Similarly, malaria-specific under-five mortality declined by 6.9 % per year faster (p = 0.033) with every $10 high per capita Global Fund disbursements. However, we find no association between Global Fund support and all-cause under-five mortality. These findings were consistent after subanalyses by baseline HIV prevalence, adjusting for effects of concurrent health aid from other donors, and varying time lags between funding and mortality changes.Conclusions: Grants from the Global Fund are closely related to accelerated reductions in all-cause adult mortality and malaria-specific under-five mortality. However, up to 2010 the Global Fund has not measurably contributed to reducing all-cause under-five mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Botswana's AIDS response included free antiretroviral treatment (ART) since 2002, achieving 80% coverage of persons with CD4<350 cells/µl by 2009–10. We explored impact on mortality and HIV prevalence, analyzing surveillance and civil registration data. Methods: Hospital natural cause admissions and deaths from the Health Statistics Unit (HSU) over 1990–2009, all-cause deaths from Midnight Bed Census (MNC) over 1990–2011, institutional and non-institutional deaths recorded in the Registry of Birth and Deaths (RBD) over 2003–2010, and antenatal sentinel surveillance (ANC) over 1992–2011 were compared to numbers of persons receiving ART. Mortality was adjusted for differential coverage and completeness of institutional and non-institutional deaths, and compared to WHO and UNAIDS Spectrum projections. Results: HSU deaths per 1000 admissions declined 49% in adults 15–64 years over 2003–2009. RBD mortality declined 44% (807 to 452/100,000 population in adults 15–64 years) over 2003–2010, similarly in males and females. Generally, death rates were higher in males; declines were greater and earlier in younger adults, and in females. In contrast, death rates in adults 65+, particularly females increased over 2003–2006. MNC all-age post-neonatal mortality declined 46% and 63% in primary and secondary level hospitals, over 2003–2011. We estimated RBD captured 80% of adult deaths over 2006–2011. Comparing empirical, completeness-adjusted deaths to Spectrum estimates, declines over 2003–2009 were similar overall (47% vs. 54%); however, Spectrum projected larger and earlier declines particularly in women. Following stabilization and modest decreases over 1998–2002, HIV prevalence in pregnant women 15–24 and 25–29-years declined by >50% and >30% through 2011, while continuing to increase in older women. Conclusions: Adult mortality in Botswana fell markedly as ART coverage increased. HIV prevalence declines may reflect ART-associated reductions in sexual transmission. Triangulation of surveillance system data offers a reasonable approach to evaluate impact of HIV/AIDS interventions, complementing cohort approaches that monitor individual-level health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria control has been dramatically scaled up the past decade, mainly thanks to increasing international donor financing since 2003. This study assessed progress up to 2010 towards global malaria impact targets, in relation to Global Fund, other donor and domestic malaria programme financing over 2003 to 2009. Methods: Assessments used domestic malaria financing reported by national programmes, and Global Fund/OECD data on donor financing for 90 endemic low- and middle-income countries, WHO estimates of households owning one or more insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and WHO-estimated malaria case incidence and deaths in countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. Results: Global Fund and other donor funding is concentrated in a subset of the highest endemic African countries. Outside Africa, donor funding is concentrated in those countries with highest malaria mortality and case incidence rates over the years 2000 to 2003. ITN coverage in 2010 in Africa, and declines in case and death rates per person at risk over 2004 to 2010 outside Africa, were greatest in countries with highest donor funding per person at risk, and smallest in countries with lowest donor malaria funding per person at risk. Outside Africa, all-source malaria programme funding over 2003 to 2009 per case averted ($56-5,749) or per death averted ($58,000-3,900,000) over 2004 to 2010 tended to be lower (more favourable) in countries with higher donor malaria funding per person at risk. Conclusions: Increases in malaria programme funding are associated with accelerated progress towards malaria control targets. Associations between programme funding per person at risk and ITN coverage increases and declines in case and death rates suggest opportunities to maximize the impact of donor funding, by strategic re-allocation to countries with highest continued need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Global Plan to Stop TB estimates funding required in low- and middle-income countries to achieve TB control targets set by the Stop TB Partnership within the context of the Millennium Development Goals. We estimate the contribution and impact of Global Fund investments under various scenarios of allocations across interventions and regions. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using Global Plan assumptions on expected cases and mortality, we estimate treatment costs and mortality impact for diagnosis and treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), including antiretroviral treatment (ART) during DOTS for HIV-co-infected patients, for four country groups, overall and for the Global Fund investments. In 2015, China and India account for 24% of funding need, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) for 33%, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for 20%, and other low- and middle-income countries for 24%. Scale-up of MDR-TB treatment, especially in EECA, drives an increasing global TB funding need - an essential investment to contain the mortality burden associated with MDR-TB and future disease costs. Funding needs rise fastest in SSA, reflecting increasing coverage need of improved TB/HIV management, which saves most lives per dollar spent in the short term. The Global Fund is expected to finance 8-12% of Global Plan implementation costs annually. Lives saved through Global Fund TB support within the available funding envelope could increase 37% if allocations shifted from current regional demand patterns to a prioritized scale-up of improved TB/HIV treatment and secondly DOTS, both mainly in Africa 2 with EECA region, which has disproportionately high per-patient costs, funded from alternative resources. Conclusions/Significance: These findings, alongside country funding gaps, domestic funding and implementation capacity and equity considerations, should inform strategies and policies for international donors, national governments and disease control programs to implement a more optimal investment approach focusing on highest-impact populations and interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) - yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011-2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Methods and Findings: Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. Conclusions: Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund. Methods: Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models. Results: By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09 - 2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic falciparum malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented. Conclusions: These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prognostic value of CD4 counts and RNA viral load for identifying treatment need in HIV-infected individuals depends on (a) variation within and among individuals, and (b) relative risks of clinical progression per unit CD4 or RNA difference. Methodology/Principal Findings: We reviewed these measurements across (a) 30 studies, and (b) 16 cohorts of untreated seropositive adults. Median within-population interquartile ranges were 74,000 copies/mL for RNA with no significant change during the course of infection; and 330 cells/μL for CD4, with a slight proportional increase over infection. Applying measurement and physiological fluctuations observed on chronically infected patients, we estimate that 45% of population-level variation in RNA, and 25% of variation in CD4, were due to within-patient fluctuations. Comparing a patient with RNA at upper 75th centile with a patient at median RNA, 5-year relative risks were 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.7) for AIDS and 1.5 (1.3-1.9) for death, without change over the course of infection. In contrast, for a patient with CD4 count at the lower 75th centile, relative risks increased from 1.0 at seroconversion to maxima of 6.3 (4.4-8.9) for AIDS and 5.5 (2.7-10.1) for death by year 6, when the population median had fallen to 300 cells/μL. Below 300 cells/μL, prognostic power did not increase, due to a narrower CD4 range. Conclusions: Findings support the current WHO recommendation (used with clinical criteria) to start antiretroviral treatment in low-income settings at CD4 thresholds of 200-350 cells/μL, without pre-treatment RNA monitoring - while not precluding earlier treatment based on clinical, socio-demographic or public health criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Drug-resistant malaria is a substantial problem throughout Africa and most countries must regularly adapt their antimalarial drug policies to ensure a continued coverage of effective antimalarial treatment. The timing of drug policy change can be guided by several sources of data: molecular markers of resistance, in-vitro parasite sensitivity, parasitological and clinical failure rates, and community morbidity and mortality rates. Through mathematical simulations of the spread of parasite mutations through a population exposed to high-endemic malaria, we explore the causal and chronological relations between these indicators and show which of them are obscured or confounded by other factors. Taking into account the logistical and practical advantages and disadvantages of each type of data collection, we critically appraise the value of each indicator. A major problem is shown to be that drug efficacy as perceived by people at risk will remain high even after drugs have become almost completely ineffective, resulting in a lack of community pressure for drug policy change. We show that parasitological failure is the most sensitive and timely indicator, which allows around 2–3 years for drug policy change to be implemented, so as to prevent the most rapid rise in malaria-related mortality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article presents the results of a study on estimating the number of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) required by African households to reach continent-wide malaria coverage targets. The goal was to estimate how many ITNs were needed overall and how many are needed just to protect infants and pregnant women. Statistics show that of the 43 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that need ITNs, just 23 percent have one or more in the home. The study estimates that millions of ITNs are needed for the entire population. The estimate of ITNs needed to protect young children and pregnant women alone was about 203 million nets.

Background. The variability in CD4+ cell counts within and among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive and -negative African populations has not been explained but has important implications for understanding the incidence of HIV-related opportunistic infections, especially tuberculosis, in both individuals and populations. Methods. In HIV-negative African adults, CD4+ cell counts vary within populations (interquartile ranges [IQRs], 169–603 cells/mL) and among populations (means vary from 699 to 1244 cells/mL), with similarly wide variations in HIV-positive adults. We developed dynamic mathematical models to predict the distribution of CD4+ cell counts in HIV-positive adults using the distribution in HIV-negative adults. Results. Under the assumption that survival is independent of the CD4+ cell count before seroconversion, we fitted the observed distributions in HIV-positive adults. At a CD4+ cell count of 200 cells/mL, the median life expectancy of HIV-positive Zambians (4.0 years) was predicted to be 1.7 times that of HIV-positive South Africans (2.3 years). Conclusions. The model provides a way to estimate the changing distribution of CD4+ cell counts and, hence, the changing incidence of HIV-related opportunistic infections as the epidemic matures. This could substantially improve the planning of health services, including the need and demand for antiretroviral therapy. Better data are needed to test the model and its assumptions more rigorously and to fully understand the variability in CD4+ cell counts within and among populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed the impact of HIV-1 on malaria in the sub-Saharan African population. Relative risks for malaria in HIV-infected persons, derived from literature review, were applied to the HIV-infected population in each country, by age group, stratum of CD4 cell count, and urban versus rural residence. Distributions of CD4 counts among HIV-infected persons were modeled assuming a linear decline in CD4 after seroconversion. Averaged across 41 countries, the impact of HIV-1 was limited (although quantitatively uncertain) because of the different geographic distributions and contrasting age patterns of the 2 diseases. However, in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, South Africa, and Namibia, the incidence of clinical malaria increased by ≤28% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14%-47%) and death increased by ≤114% (95% CI 37%-188%). These effects were due to high HIV-1 prevalence In rural areas and the locally unstable nature of malaria transmission that results in a high proportion of adult cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To review the impact of malaria control on haemoglobin (Hb) distributions and anaemia prevalences in children under 5 in malaria-endemic Africa.Literature review of community-based studies of insecticide-treated bednets, antimalarial chemoprophylaxis and insecticide residual spraying that reported the impact on childhood anaemia. Anaemia outcomes were standardized by conversion of packed cell volumes into Hb values assuming a fixed threefold difference, and by estimation of anaemia prevalences from mean Hb values by applying normal distributions. Determinants of impact were assessed in multivariate analysis.Across 29 studies, malaria control increased Hb among children by, on average, 0.76 g/dl [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61–0.91], from a mean baseline level of 10.5 g/dl, after a mean of 1–2 years of intervention. This response corresponded to a relative risk for Hb < 11 g/dl of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.64–0.81) and for Hb < 8 g/dl of 0.40 (95% CI: 0.25–0.55). The anaemia response was positively correlated with the impact on parasitaemia (P = 0.005,P = 0.008 andP = 0.01 for the three outcome measures), but no relationship with the type or duration of malaria intervention was apparent. Impact on the prevalence of Hb < 11 g/dl was larger in sites with a higher baseline parasite prevalence. Although no age pattern in impact was apparent across the studies, some individual trials found larger impacts on anaemia in children aged 6–35 months than in older children.In malaria-endemic Africa, malaria control reduces childhood anaemia. Childhood anaemia may be a useful indicator of the burden of malaria and of the progress in malaria control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the indicators 'proportion of households possessing mosquito net(s)' and 'proportion of children under 5 years of age who slept under a net the preceding night' for monitoring malaria control.Methods: Review of data from household surveys including demographic and health surveys in sub-Saharan African countries.Results: Net possession ranged among 14 surveyed regions from 0.1% to 28.5% for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and among 69 regions from 3.6% to 79.7% for any net. Reported use during the preceding night by children under 5 years of age was between 0% and 16% for ITNs and between 0.7% and 74.5% for any net. On average, in households owning ITN(s), 55% of children slept under it (R2 = 0.97, P < 0.001). For any net, use was -4.2% + 0.875 x possession (R2 = 0.89, P < 0.001); the use of nets, however, also varied somewhat among the surveyed countries (P = 0.003). In-depth surveys suggested that use was lower than possession because: (i). nets were scarce (mean 1.8 per possessing household); (ii). nets were not always used for children and (iii). use was lower during hot, dry months than during cool rainy months, and many surveys had been conducted in the dry season.Conclusions: Not all mosquito nets owned by African households are being used for young children. Household education on the consistent use of nets for this vulnerable group is called for in malaria control programmes. Regular, district-level rapid assessments of household possession of nets should complement ongoing in-depth surveys. Data on 'use during the preceding night' must be interpreted taking the survey season into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reviewed 47 prospective studies of recurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) after cure to assess the influence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and rifampin treatment. Multivariate regression revealed that the recurrence rate for HIV-uninfected persons increased with decreasing duration of therapy: it was 1.4 cases per 100 person-years for recipients of &ges; 7 months of rifampin therapy and 2.0 and 4.0 cases per 100 person-years for recipients of 5-6 and 2-3 months of rifampin therapy, respectively (trend P = .00014), over a mean follow-up duration of 34 months, at a TB incidence of 250 cases per 100,000 person-years. Relative risks of recurrence associated with HIV infection at these 3 treatment durations were 2.2, 2.1, and 3.4, respectively, with a significant interaction between HIV infection status and treatment duration (P = .025). The recurrence rate increased with the background TB incidence (P = .048), and it decreased over time since completion of treatment in HIV-uninfected but not in HIV-infected patients (overall trend, P = .00008; difference by HIV infection status, P = .025). In countries where HIV infection is endemic, TB recurrence may be reduced by administration of rifampin-based treatment for at least 6 months, in accordance with World Health Organization recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reduction of deaths associated with malaria in children is a primary goal of malaria control programmes in Africa, but there has been little discussion about how changes in mortality will be measured. This paper assesses recent historical changes in the contribution of malaria to child survival in Africa by examining data from demographic surveillance systems (DSS) in 25 mainly rural settings. The data were adjusted for the varying sensitivity and specificity of verbal autopsies (VA) in different ranges of malaria mortality and for varying parasite prevalences. Average malaria mortality in the DSS sites in west Africa was 7·8 per 1000 child-years between 1982 and 1998; the rate did not change significantly over this period. In the sites in east and southern Africa combined, malaria mortality was 6·5 per 1000 child-years between 1982 and 1989, but it increased to 11·9 per 1000 child-years between 1990 and 1998. All-cause child mortality and non-malaria mortality, by contrast, decreased significantly over time in both regions; consequently, the proportion of deaths due to malaria rose from 18% to 23% in west African sites and from 18% to 37% in east and southern African sites between 1982–89 and 1990–98. If malaria mortality fell at a rate consistent with the Roll Back Malaria target of halving malaria mortality by the year 2010, an individual DSS of a total population of 63 500 could with adequate VA adjustment detect this reduction after 7 years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: The proportion of cases of genital ulcer disease attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) appears to be increasing in sub-Saharan Africa.Goal: To assess the contributions of HIV disease and behavioral response to the HIV epidemic to the increasing proportion of genital ulcer disease (GUD) attributable to HSV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa.Study Design: Simulations of the transmission dynamics of ulcerative sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV with use of the model STDSIM.Results: In simulations, 28% of GUD was caused by HSV-2 before a severe HIV epidemic. If HIV disease was assumed to double the duration and frequency of HSV-2 recurrences, this proportion rose to 35% by year 2000. If stronger effects of HIV were assumed, this proportion rose further, but because of increased HSV-2 transmission this would shift the peak in HSV-2 seroprevalence to an unrealistically young age. A simulated 25% reduction in partner-change rates increased the proportion of GUD caused by HSV-2 to 56%, following relatively large decreases in chancroid and syphilis.Conclusion: Behavioral change may make an important contribution to relative increases in genital herpes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: If sexually transmitted disease (STD) cofactor effects are strong and STDs are highly prevalent, STD control can be a strategy for HIV prevention.Objective: To review possibilities for estimating cofactor effects of STDs on HIV transmission based on observational studies.Study Design: This study consisted of an analysis of factors influencing associations between HIV and STDs, which can bias STD cofactor studies, from a sexual network perspective. Study designs that reduce distortions and methods to improve estimates in the presence of confounding are discussed.Results: Standard statistical adjustments of cofactor estimates are insufficient because they ignore clustering between HIV and STDs in partners of study subjects, resulting from population heterogeneity in risk factors and assortative mixing. Reverse causation due to HIV-related immunosuppression may further inflate cofactor estimates. Misclassification of STDs and clustering between STDs can bias estimates in either direction. This study demonstrates quantitatively that ignorance of sexual network effects may result in considerable overestimation of cofactor magnitudes.Conclusion: The limitations of observational studies complicate quantitative inferences on the role of STDs in HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies how sexual behavior affects population HIV spread simulating stylized risk profiles. Prostitution and short relationships; Impact of prevention programs on HIV prevalence; Time courses of HIV spread; Effect of concentration of risk on spread of disease.

Several letters to the editor are presented in response to article "Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis" by C. J. L. Murray, L. C. Rosenfeld and S. S. Lim in February 4, 2012 issue.

The author reflects on reduced mortality which has been seen in HIV-positive people with home based HIV treatment in Uganda and on research which examined it. He suggests that with increasing international and local funding the control of HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis is increasing. He argues that hopefully more prevention and treatment programs for diseases will use opportunities for optimising resource allocations and service deliveries.

Introduction: Identifying strategies to further reduce AIDS‐related mortality requires accurate estimates of the extent to which mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is due to AIDS‐related or non‐AIDS‐related causes. Existing approaches to estimating AIDS‐related mortality have quantified AIDS‐related mortality as total mortality among PLHIV in excess of age‐ and sex‐matched mortality in populations without HIV. However, recent evidence suggests that, with high antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, a growing proportion of excess mortality among PLHIV is non‐AIDS‐related. Methods: We searched Embase on 22/09/2023 for English language studies that contained data on AIDS‐related mortality rates among adult PLHIV and age‐matched comparator all‐cause mortality rates among people without HIV. We extracted data on the number and rates of all‐cause and AIDS‐related deaths, demographics, ART use and AIDS‐related mortality definitions. We calculated the proportion of excess mortality among PLHIV that is AIDS‐related. The proportion of excess mortality due to AIDS was pooled using random‐effects meta‐analysis. Results: Of 4485 studies identified by the initial search, eight were eligible, all from high‐income settings: five from Europe, one from Canada, one from Japan and one from South Korea. No studies reported on mortality among only untreated PLHIV. One study included only PLHIV on ART. In all studies, most PLHIV were on ART by the end of follow‐up. Overall, 1,331,742 person‐years and 17,471 deaths were included from PLHIV, a mortality rate of 13.1 per 1000 person‐years. Of these deaths, 7721 (44%) were AIDS‐related, an overall AIDS‐related mortality rate of 5.8 per 1000 person‐years. The mean overall mortality rate among the general population was 2.8 (95% CI: 1.8–4.0) per 1000 person‐years. The meta‐analysed percentage of excess mortality that was AIDS‐related was 53% (95% CI: 45–61%); 52% (43–60%) in Western and Central Europe and North America, and 71% (69–74%) in the Asia‐Pacific region. Discussion: Although we searched all regions, we only found eligible studies from high‐income countries, mostly European, so, the generalizability of these results to other regions and epidemic settings is unknown. Conclusions: Around half of the excess mortality among PLHIV in high‐income regions was non‐AIDS‐related. An emphasis on preventing and treating comorbidities linked to non‐AIDS mortality among PLHIV is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated national-level trends in the prevalence of probable active syphilis in adult women using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) model to inform program planning, target-setting, and progress evaluation in STI control. The model fitted smoothed-splines polynomial regressions to data from antenatal clinic surveys and screening and representative household surveys, adjusted for diagnostic test performance and weighted by national coverage. Eligible countries had ≥1 data point from 2010 or later and ≥3 from 2000 or later from adult populations considered representative of the general female population (pregnant women or community-based studies). Between 2012 and 2016, the prevalence of probable active syphilis in women decreased in 54 (41%) of 132 eligible countries; this decrease was substantive (≥10% proportionally, ≥0.10% percentage-point absolute difference and non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals in 2012 and 2016) in 5 countries. Restricting eligible data to prevalence measurements of dual treponemal and non-treponemal testing limited estimates to 85 countries; of these, 45 countries (53%) showed a decrease. These standardized trend estimates highlight the need for increased investment in national syphilis surveillance and control efforts if the World Health Organization target of a 90% reduction in the incidence of syphilis between 2018 and 2030 is to be met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity.Methods: The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0-4 years, 5-14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016-2030.Results: Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria -as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022-2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST.Conclusions: Spectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To generate estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of urogenital infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis in women and men, aged 15-49 years, in 2016. Methods For chlamydia, gonorrhoea and trichomoniasis, we systematically searched for studies conducted between 2009 and 2016 reporting prevalence. We also consulted regional experts. To generate estimates, we used Bayesian meta-analysis. For syphilis, we aggregated the national estimates generated by using Spectrum-STI. Findings For chlamydia, gonorrhoea and/or trichomoniasis, 130 studies were eligible. For syphilis, the Spectrum-STI database contained 978 data points for the same period. The 2016 global prevalence estimates in women were: chlamydia 3.8% (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 3.3-4.5); gonorrhoea 0.9% (95% UI: 0.7-1.1); trichomoniasis 5.3% (95% UI:4.0-7.2); and syphilis 0.5% (95% UI: 0.4-0.6). In men prevalence estimates were: chlamydia 2.7% (95% UI: 1.9-3.7); gonorrhoea 0.7% (95% UI: 0.5-1.1); trichomoniasis 0.6% (95% UI: 0.4-0.9); and syphilis 0.5% (95% UI: 0.4-0.6). Total estimated incident cases were 376.4 million: 127.2 million (95% UI: 95.1-165.9 million) chlamydia cases; 86.9 million (95% UI: 58.6-123.4 million) gonorrhoea cases; 156.0 million (95% UI: 103.4-231.2 million) trichomoniasis cases; and 6.3 million (95% UI: 5.5-7.1 million) syphilis cases. Conclusion Global estimates of prevalence and incidence of these four curable sexually transmitted infections remain high. The study highlights the need to expand data collection efforts at country level and provides an initial baseline for monitoring progress of the World Health Organization global health sector strategy on sexually transmitted infections 2016-2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examine the effectiveness of the home-based antiretroviral treatment (ART) delivery model used by AIDS Support Organisation (TASO) to treat acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in rural Uganda. They note the budget allotted by TASO per patient per year for home-based and facility-based ART. The authors also emphasize the importance of health outcomes and cost in the effectiveness of any medical treatment.

A response by Brian Williams, Eline Korenromp, Eleanor Gouws, George Schmid, Bertran Auvert and Christopher Dye to a letter to the editor about their article "HIV Infection, Antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ Cell Count Distributions in African Populations" in the 2006 issue is presented.

Background: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection causing significant global morbidity and mortality. To inform policymaking and economic evaluation studies for syphilis, we summarised utility and disability weights for health states associated with syphilis. Methods: We conducted a systematic review, searching six databases for economic evaluations and primary valuation studies related to syphilis from January 2000 to February 2022. We extracted health state utility values or disability weights, including identification of how these were derived. The study was registered in the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42021230035). Findings: Of 3401 studies screened, 22 economic evaluations, two primary studies providing condition-specific measures, and 13 burden of disease studies were included. Fifteen economic evaluations reported outcomes as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and seven reported quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Fourteen of 15 economic evaluations that used DALYS based their values on the original Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 (published in 1996). For the seven QALY-related economic evaluations, the methodology varied between studies, with some studies using assumptions and others creating utility weights or converting them from disability weights. Interpretation: We found a limited evidence base for the valuation of health states for syphilis, a lack of transparency for the development of existing health state utility values, and inconsistencies in the application of these values to estimate DALYs and QALYs. Further research is required to expand the evidence base so that policymakers can access accurate and well-informed economic evaluations to allocate resources to address syphilis and implement syphilis programs that are cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor about a case complete loss of libido associated with short-term use of lorazepam is presented.

Arising from: R. W. Snow, C. A. Guerra, A. M. Noor, H. Y. Myint & S. I. Hay 434, 214–217 (2005); see also communication from Bell; Snow et al. reply.Estimates of the disease burden caused by malaria are crucial for informing malaria control programmes. Snow and colleagues claim that their estimate of 515 million cases of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum globally is up to 50% higher than that reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), and 200% higher for areas outside Africa. However, this comparison refers to the WHO's estimates from 1990 and 1998, and not to the range of 300 million to 500 million that the WHO has used since 2000 (ref. 2). Both groups agree that the burden of malaria disease outside Africa, especially in South Asia, is greater than was estimated in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. Methods: We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Results: Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (p<0.001), and 31% fewer deaths in 2011. TB mortality was higher at higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001), but not related to coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, or other covariates. Conclusion: This econometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The World Health Organization Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria, in 2006 and 2010, recommend parasitological confirmation of malaria before commencing treatment. Although microscopy has been the mainstay of malaria diagnostics, the magnitude of diagnostic scale up required to follow the Guidelines suggests that rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) will be a large component. This study analyzes the adoption of rapid diagnostic testing in malaria programs supported by the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), the leading international funder of malaria control globally. Methods and Findings: We analyzed, for the period 2005 to 2010, Global Fund programmatic data for 81 countries on the quantity of RDTs planned; actual quantities of RDTs and artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) procured in 2009 and 2010; RDT-related activities including RDTs distributed, RDTs used, total diagnostic tests including RDTs and microscopy performed, health facilities equipped with RDTs; personnel trained to perform rapid diagnostic malaria test; and grant budgets allocated to malaria diagnosis. In 2010, diagnosis accounted for 5.2% of malaria grant budget. From 2005 to 2010, the procurement plans include148 million RDTs through 96 malaria grants in 81 countries. Around 115 million parasitological tests, including RDTs, had reportedly been performed from 2005 to 2010. Over this period, 123,132 health facilities were equipped with RDTs and 137,140 health personnel had been trained to perform RDT examinations. In 2009 and 2010, 41 million RDTs and 136 million ACTs were purchased. The ratio of procured RDTs to ACTs was 0.26 in 2009 and 0.34 in 2010. Conclusions/significance: Global Fund financing has enabled 81 malaria-endemic countries to adopt WHO guidelines by investing in RDTs for malaria diagnosis, thereby helping improve case management of acute febrile illness in children. However, roll-out of parasitological diagnosis lags behind the roll-out of ACT-based treatment, and will require prioritization of investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To assess whether the global target of halving tuberculosis (TB) mortality between 1990 and 2015 can be achieved and to conduct the first global assessment of the lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy of the World Health Organization (WHO). Methods Mortality from TB since 1990 was estimated for 213 countries using established methods endorsed by WHO. Mortality trends were estimated separately for people with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in accordance with the International classification of diseases. Lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy were estimated with respect to the performance of TB control in 1995, the year that DOTS was introduced. Findings TB mortality among HIV-negative (HIV-) people fell from 30 to 20 per 100 000 population (36%) between 1990 and 2009 and could be halved by 2015. The overall decline (when including HIV-positive [HIV+] people, who comprise 12% of all TB cases) was 19%. Between 1995 and 2009, 49 million TB patients were treated under the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy. This saved 4.6-6.3 million lives, including those of 0.23-0.28 million children and 1.4-1.7 million women of childbearing age. A further 1 million lives could be saved annually by 2015. Conclusion Improvements in TB care and control since 1995 have greatly reduced TB mortality, saved millions of lives and brought within reach the global target of halving TB deaths by 2015 relative to 1990. Intensified efforts to reduce deaths among HIV+ TB cases are needed, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trials in Africa indicate that medical adult male circumcision (MAMC) reduces the risk of HIV by 60%. MAMC may avert 2 to 8 million HIV infections over 20 years in sub-Saharan Africa and cost less than treating those who would have been infected. This paper estimates the financial and human resources required to roll out MAMC and the net savings due to reduced infections. Methods: We developed a model which included costing, demography and HIV epidemiology. We used it to investigate 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of male circumcision was lower than 80% and HIV prevalence among adults was higher than 5%, in addition to Uganda and the Nyanza province in Kenya. We assumed that the roll-out would take 5 years and lead to an MC prevalence among adult males of 85%. We also assumed that surgery would be done as it was in the trials. We calculated public program cost, number of full-time circumcisers and net costs or savings when adjusting for averted HIV treatments. Costs were in USD, discounted to 2007. 95% percentile intervals (95% PI) were estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. Results: In the first 5 years the number of circumcisers needed was 2 282 (95% PI: 2 018 to 2 959), or 0.24 (95% PI: 0.21 to 0.31) per 10 000 adults. In years 6-10, the number of circumcisers needed fell to 513 (95% PI: 452 to 664). The estimated 5-year cost of rolling out MAMC in the public sector was $919 million (95%PI: 726 to 1 245). The cumulative net cost over the first 10 years was $672 million (95% PI: 437 to 1 021) and over 20 years there were net savings of $2.3 billion (95% PI: 1.4 to 3.4). Conclusion: A rapid roll-out of MAMC in sub-Saharan Africa requires substantial funding and a high number of circumcisers for the first five years. These investments are justified by MAMC's substantial health benefits and the savings accrued by averting future HIV infections. Lower ongoing costs and continued care savings suggest long-term sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article evaluates the proportion of HIV infections attributable to STD in the sexually transmitted disease treatment trials in Mwanza, Tanzania and Rakai District, Uganda. The contribution of STD to HIV spread in the trial populations was underestimated because STD effects on HIV transmission were not captured in the observationally based studies.

Determines whether population differences can explain the contrasting impact on HIV observed in the Mwanza trial of sexually transmitted disease (STD) syndromic treatment, the Rakai trial of STD mass treatment (MT) and the Masaka trial of information, education and communication with and without ST. Prediction of the effectiveness of each intervention strategy in each population; Observation that the baseline trial populations could be simulated by assuming higher risk behavior in Uganda compared with Mwanza in the 1980s; Finding that the projected HIV impacts were larger for the ST intervention in Mwanza than for the MT intervention in Rakai or the IEC and IEC plus St interventions in Masaka.

Examines projections of HIV spread for four profiles of sexual behavior reflecting patterns encountered across the developing world using a sexually transmitted diseases simulation model. Assumptions on sexual behavior; Risk behavior in model profiles of sexual behavior; Effects of prevention strategies on different population groups and settings.

Objectives: To estimate trends in prevalence and incidence of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia in adult men and women in South Africa. Methods: The Spectrum-STI tool estimated trends in prevalence and incidence of active syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia, fitting South African prevalence data. Results were used, alongside programmatic surveillance data, to estimate trends in incident gonorrhea cases resistant to first-line treatment, and the reporting gap of symptomatic male gonorrhea and chlamydia cases treated but not reported as cases of urethritis syndrome. Results: In 2017 adult (15–49 years) the estimated female and male prevalences for syphilis were 0.50% (95% CI: 0.32–0.80%) and 0.97% (0.19–2.28%), for gonorrhea 6.6% (3.8–10.8%) and 3.5% (1.7–6.1%), and for chlamydia 14.7% (9.9–21%) and 6.0% (3.8–10.4%), respectively. Between 1990 and 2017 the estimated prevalence of syphilis declined steadily in women and men, probably in part reflecting improved treatment coverage. For gonorrhea and chlamydia, estimated prevalence and incidence showed no consistent time trend in either women or men. Despite growing annual numbers of gonorrhea cases − reflecting population growth − the estimated number of first line treatment-resistant gonorrhea cases did not increase between 2008 and 2017, owing to changes in first-line antimicrobial treatment regimens for gonorrhea in 2008 and 2014/5. Case reporting completeness among treated male urethritis syndrome episodes was estimated at 10–28% in 2017. Conclusion: South Africa continues to suffer a high STI burden. Improvements in access and quality of maternal, STI and HIV health care services likely contributed to the decline in syphilis prevalence. The lack of any decline in gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence highlights the need to enhance STI services beyond clinic-based syndromic case management, to reinvigorate primary STI and HIV prevention and, especially for women, to screen for asymptomatic infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]