1. Merging theory and experiments to predict and understand coextinctions.
- Author
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Morton, Dana N., Keyes, Aislyn, Barner, Allison K., and Dee, Laura E.
- Subjects
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BIOLOGICAL extinction , *PREDATION , *MASS extinctions , *ENDANGERED species , *SCIENTIFIC observation , *FORECASTING , *ECOLOGISTS - Abstract
In an era of mass extinction, predicting the consequences of species loss has become a priority for ecologists. Extinction of one species can trigger the loss of dependent species, sometimes leading to cascades of extinctions. Simulations predict that cascading extinctions should be commonplace, but empirical observations of extinction cascades rarely match those predicted by simulation. By contrast, species-removal field experiments have yielded surprises, such as novel interactions following removals. Thus, given this mismatch, the true predictive value of extinction simulation studies is unknown. We explore the value of validating extinction simulations with observational and experimental studies. We propose a new framework that unites both approaches to studying extinction cascades, and which reveals new opportunities to couple theory and data. We are facing many local and global extinction events as part of the sixth global mass extinction. Many studies focus on the extinction risk of individual species, but what are the knock-on effects when the prey of a specialist predator becomes extinct or a plant loses its only pollinator? The potential loss of species and their interactions through coextinction remains difficult to predict, and this obscures our ability to predict extinctions from global change and impacts on ecosystems. Experimental and theoretical studies of coextinction have progressed largely in parallel. Many studies simulate species loss using robustness analysis, whereas relatively few monitor coextinctions in situ following natural species loss or experimental species removal. The combination of theoretical and empirical studies on coextinctions could provide new predictive insights into complex ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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