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In this paper we introduce a landslide prediction system for modelling the probabilities of landslides through time in Slovenia (Masprem). The system to forecast rainfall induced landslides is based on the landslide susceptibility map, landslide triggering rainfall threshold values and the precipitation forecasting model. Through the integrated parameters a detailed framework of the system, from conceptual to operational phases, is shown. Using fuzzy logic the landslide prediction is calculated. Potential landslide areas are forecasted on a national scale (1: 250,000) and on a local scale (1: 25,000) for five selected municipalities where the exposure of inhabitants, buildings and different type of infrastructure is displayed, twice daily. Due to different rainfall patterns that govern landslide occurrences, the system for landslide prediction considers two different rainfall scenarios (M1 and M2). The landslides predicted by the two models are compared with a landslide inventory to validate the outputs. In this study we highlight the rainfall event that lasted from the 9th to the 14th of September 2014 when abundant precipitation triggered over 800 slope failures around Slovenia and caused large material damage. Results show that antecedent rainfall plays an important role, according to the comparisons of the model (M1) where antecedent rainfall is not considered. Although in general the landslides areas are over-predicted and largely do not correspond to the landslide inventory, the overall performance indicates that the system is able to capture the crucial factors in determining the landslide location. Additional calibration of input parameters and the landslide inventory as well as improved spatially distributed rainfall forecast data can further enhance the model's prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the frame of national research and innovation project MASPREM exposure maps of inhabitants, buildings and infrastructures to landslide occurrence were developed for five selected Slovenian municipalities. Maps represent an upgrade of the landslide susceptibility maps that were elaborated based on synthesis of analysis of event-based landslide inventory and field investigations. Exposure maps were developed for five municipalities: Bovec, Laško, Slovenj Gradec, Trbovlje and Železniki. Exposure of inhabitants, construction and infrastructures to landslide occurrence was analysed using simple cross-analysis of landslide susceptibility maps at scale of 1:25,000 with locations of exposed elements. All analyses were conducted in the GIS with software tool ArcMap. Exposure maps, based on landslide susceptibility, were classified into six classes, with values ranging from one to six where class one represents areas with negligible exposure and class six areas with very high exposure to landslide occurrence. Exposure maps of selected municipalities provide the basis for further assessment of risk and consequentially better risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]