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A fundamental goal of scientific research is to identify the underlying variables that govern crucial processes of a system. This is especially difficult in ecology, which is intrinsically rich in candidate predictors. An efficient statistical procedure to evaluate the relative importance of predictors in regression models is highly desirable. However, previous studies criticised the most universally applicable method, by pointing out the low discriminating power of the importance index in simulated datasets. Here we proposed a new index, WiBB, which integrates the merits of several existing methods. WiBB combines a model‐weighting method from information theory (Wi), a standardised regression coefficient method measured by β* (B), and bootstrap resampling technique (B). We applied the WiBB in simulated datasets with known correlation structures, for both linear models (LM) and generalized linear models (GLM), to evaluate its performance. We also applied it to an empirical dataset of a plant genus Mimulus to select bioclimatic predictors of species' presence across the landscape. Results in the simulated datasets showed that the bootstrap resampling technique significantly improved the discriminant ability by correctly sorting the orders of relative importance of predictors. The WiBB method outperformed the β* and the relative sum of weights (SWi, a standardised version of sum of weights) methods in scenarios with small and large sample sizes, respectively. When testing WiBB in the empirical dataset with GLM, it sensibly identified four important predictors with high credibility out of six candidates in modelling geographical distributions of 71 Mimulus species. This integrated index has great advantages in evaluating predictor importance and hence reducing the dimensionality of data, without losing interpretive power. The simplicity of calculation of the new metric over more sophisticated statistical procedures makes it a handy method in the statistical toolbox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distributionbased method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-fromthe- past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Freshwater ecosystems are embedded in terrestrial ecosystems to form an integral whole. In the context of global climate change, freshwater ecosystems may be irreversibly negatively affected; thus, aquatic organisms dependent on freshwater ecosystems are severely affected. However, terrestrial life may also experience unexpected crises due to the collapse of freshwater ecosystems, and we know very little about the relationship between terrestrial life and freshwater ecosystems. Therefore, we conducted our research on the Tibetan Plateau, an area with a dense distribution of lakes. We analyzed the relationship between the number of Tibetan antelopes (an ungulate mammal distributed in the region) and the number of lakes, and the distribution of the terrain and vegetation around the lake. Our results indicated that a greater abundance of Tibetan antelopes was associated with larger lakes, flatter terrain, and proximity to lakes, which may all be factors that affect the survival of this species. Our study suggests that lakes may provide a better habitat for ungulates in such a fragile ecosystem, including a different predation risk and more food resources, and this also provides a new research idea for the study of multi-species coexistence on the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of freshwater ecosystems on terrestrial taxa in high-altitude regions with challenging access, such as the Tibetan Plateau, remains inadequately understood. This knowledge gap is particularly significant due to the fragility of these ecosystems, characterized by low primary productivity. Ungulates, in particular, may exhibit high sensitivity to even minor alterations in plant availability, potentially stemming from global climate change. Consequently, the investigation of these ecosystems may offer valuable insights into addressing future challenges posed by climate change. Here, to fill this knowledge gap, we explore the relationship between lakes and Tibetan antelopes in an even more vulnerable region, the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the Tibetan antelope population was higher in areas with larger lakes, and where the terrain near the lakes was flatter. At the same time, vegetation cover and plant diversity were higher near the lake compared to areas farther away from the lake. This phenomenon can be elucidated by the fact that lakes offer Tibetan antelopes a richer food supply and reduced predation risk. Our study provides new perspectives for researchers to explore the cross-ecosystem impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between vegetation and precipitation has been studied extensively, but little is known about its mechanistic linkage to agro-ecosystem sustainability. In this study, we used 250 m MODIS NDVI 16-day composite data and precipitation data for the period 2001-2005 to evaluate the connection between vegetation and precipitation in the Jinghe River watershed of the central Loess Plateau, China. A principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to determine the primary feature of vegetation cover. The results indicated that the first two principal components (PC1 and PC2) explained around 89% of total NDVI variances. The spatial distribution of PC1 followed an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, a similar dynamics to the spatial pattern of NDVI, which was determined by the variation of mean annual precipitation in the Jinghe River watershed. Furthermore, PC2 was associated with the spring/summer modes of the annual cycle while their intra-annual variations were largely modified by the regular phonological cycle of the winter wheat-summer fallow cropping practices, a dominant farming practice in severely degraded regions of the Loess Plateau. Winter wheat-summer fallow practice was a dominant factor affecting the precipitation-vegetation relationship. A sharp decrease in vegetation cover after wheat harvesting during the rainy seasons from July to September may be a major cause of extensive soil erosion in this region. Our findings provide new insight into the relationship between vegetation and precipitation which is critical in the restoration of degraded ecosystems and developing appropriate crop rotation systems to achieve a certain amount of agricultural sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Weather generators are widely used in hydrological, ecological, and crop-yield modeling. CLIGEN is a frequently adopted weather generator. Although it has been tested in many parts of the world, it still needs to be validated before being applied to the Loess Plateau, China, because of the unique climate of the region. Only the generated daily precipitation are validated in this paper, for it is assumed to be the most important climatic factor affecting the precision of SWAT, which was selected as the main tool to do a regional assessment of soil erosion. Five sites, which have 30 years of relatively complete daily precipitation records along an aridity gradient, are selected for the validation of CLIGEN. The main purposes of this study are to test the usefulness of CLIGEN in precipitation simulation and to determine whether the performance varies with the aridity gradient. Means and standard deviations of five rainfall variables between measured and each of the 10 sets of CLIGEN generated precipitation are compared for each site. The precipitation variables analyzed are: yearly total precipitation, yearly number of rainy days, monthly total precipitation, log-transformed monthly average wet-spell length, and log-transformed monthly average dry-spell length. T-tests and F-tests are used to determine if there are significant differences in the means and standard deviations, respectively, between observed data and CLIGEN-generated data. Results show that CLIGEN preserves the means quite well, and preserves standard deviations reasonably well, although there are considerable variations among sites, among precipitation variables, and among seasons. There is no obvious trend of performance along the aridity gradient. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

While the protected area (PA) covers >15% of the planet's terrestrial land area and continues to expand, factors determining its effectiveness in conserving endangered species are being debated. We investigated the links between direct anthropogenic pressures, socioeconomic settings, and the coverage of vertebrate taxa by China's PA network, and indicated that high socioeconomic status and low levels of human pressure correlate with high species coverage, with threatened mammals more effectively conserved than reptiles or amphibians. Positive links between conservation outcomes and socioeconomic progress appear linked to local livelihood improvements triggering positive perceptions of local PAs—aided further by ecological compensation and tourism schemes introduced in wealthy areas and reinforced by continued positive conservation outcomes. Socioeconomic development of China's less developed regions might assist regional PA efficiency and achievement of the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, while also addressing potential shortcomings from an insufficient past focus on socioeconomic impacts for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the tiger population has declined sharply from more than 3000 to fewer than 600 individuals, and its habitat has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. Poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation have been widely recognized as the primary causes for the observed population decline. Using a population viability analysis tool (RAMAS/GIS), we simulated the effects of poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Amur tiger, and then explored the relative effectiveness of three conservation strategies involving improving habitat quality and establishing movement corridors in China and Russia. A series of controlled simulation experiments were performed based on the current spatial distribution of habitat and field-observed vital rates. Our results showed that the Amur tiger population could be viable for the next 100 years if the current habitat area and quality were well-maintained, with poaching strictly prohibited of the tigers and their main prey species. Poaching and habitat degradation (mainly prey scarcity) had the largest negative impacts on the tiger population persistence. While the effect of habitat loss was also substantial, habitat fragmentation per se had less influence on the long-term fate of the tiger population. However, to sustain the subpopulations in both Russia and China would take much greater conservation efforts. The viability of the Chinese population of tigers would rely heavily on its connectivity with the largest patch on the other side of the border. Improving the habitat quality of small patches only or increasing habitat connectivity through movement corridors alone would not be enough to guarantee the long-term population persistence of the Amur tiger in both Russia and China. The only conservation strategy that allowed for long-term persistence of tigers in both countries required both the improvement of habitat quality and the establishment of a transnational reserve network. Our study provides new insights into the metapopulation dynamics and persistence of the Amur tiger, which should be useful in landscape and conservation planning for protecting the biggest cat species in the world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]