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Today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas–fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet penetration is low, today’s total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas–fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These “pump-to-wheels”(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Implications: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Pump-to-wheels (PTW) methane emissions from the heavy-duty (HD) transportation sector, which have climate change implications, are poorly documented. In this study, methane emissions from HD natural gas fueled vehicles and the compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueling stations that serve them were characterized. A novel measurement system was developed to quantify methane leaks and losses. Engine related emissions were characterized from twenty-two natural gas fueled transit buses, refuse trucks, and over-the-road (OTR) tractors. Losses from six LNG and eight CNG stations were characterized during compression, fuel delivery, storage, and from leaks. Cryogenic boil-off pressure rise and pressure control venting from LNG storage tanks were characterized using theoretical and empirical modeling. Field and laboratory observations of LNG storage tanks were used for model development and evaluation. PTW emissions were combined with a specific scenario to view emissions as a percent of throughput. Vehicle tailpipe and crankcase emissions were the highest sources of methane. Data from this research are being applied by the authors to develop models to forecast methane emissions from the future HD transportation sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]