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Functional diversity metrics based on species traits are widely used to investigate ecosystem functioning. In theory, such metrics have different implications depending on whether they are calculated from traits mediating responses to environmental change (response traits) or those regulating function (effect traits), yet trait choice in diversity metrics is rarely scrutinized.Here, we compile effect and response traits for British bird species supplying two key ecological services—seed dispersal and insect predation—to assess the relationship between functional diversity and both mean and stability of community abundance over time.As predicted, functional diversity correlates with stability in community abundance of seed dispersers when calculated using response traits. However, we found a negative relationship between functional diversity and mean community abundance of seed dispersers when calculated using effect traits. Subsequently, when combining all traits together, we found inconsistent results with functional diversity correlating with reduced stability in insectivores, but greater stability in seed dispersers.Our findings suggest that trait choice should be considered more carefully when applying such metrics in ecosystem management. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging.Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas.Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered.Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas.Synthesis and applications. We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high‐yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife‐friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density–yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3‐compartment strategy (combining high‐yield farming, natural habitat, and low‐yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3‐compartment land‐sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature. Article impact statement: By freeing up land for conservation, high‐yield farming can maximize biodiversity outcomes even in long‐converted landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: We undertook large citizen science surveys of bird distributions (atlases) in Britain and Ireland, aimed at quantifying breeding bird distributions on a 20‐year cycle and wintering bird distributions on a c. 30‐year cycle. We use these to generate spatially referenced information on apparent changes in bird distributions over c. 40 years. Main type of variable contained: Detection of breeding and wintering bird species in grid squares during five periods, and changes in detection between periods. The combined distribution dataset contains 1,410,938 records detailing detections of 465 bird species in 3,880 grid cells in different periods. The combined distribution change dataset contains 1,297,791 records describing stability, apparent colonization or apparent extinction of individual species in grid squares between pairs of atlases spanning up to c. 40 years. Spatial location and grain: Grid squares (10 km × 10 km) containing land throughout Britain, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. The majority of data are at 10‐km resolution, but data for rare species are summarized at 20‐ or 50‐km resolution to protect sensitive locations. Time period: The data represent summarized detection information derived from fieldwork during five periods: the breeding seasons 1968–1972, 1988–1991 and 2008–2011, and the winters 1981/1982–1983/1984 and 2007/2008–2010/2011. Major taxa studied and level of measurement: Birds; their distribution derived from citizen science surveys. Software format: Data are supplied as comma‐separated text files. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index ( CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental impact assessments are important tools for predicting the consequences of development and changes in land use. These assessments generally use a small subset of total biodiversity - typically rare and threatened species and habitats - as indicators of ecological status. However, these indicators do not necessarily reflect changes in the many more widespread (but increasingly threatened) species, which are important for ecosystem functions. In addition, assessment of threatened species through field surveys is time-consuming and expensive and, therefore, only possible at small spatial scales. In contrast, planning changes in land use over large spatial scales (e.g. national infrastructure projects) require assessment and prioritization of biodiversity over large spatial extents., Here, we provide a method for the assessment of biodiversity, which takes account of species diversity across larger spatial scales, based on occurrence records from 5553 species across 11 taxonomic groups. We compare the efficacy of the biodiversity-based indicator we developed against one based on threatened species only and then use it to consider spatial and temporal patterns in ecological status across Great Britain. Finally, we develop a case study to investigate biodiversity status in regions proposed for shale gas extraction in Great Britain., Our results show a strong relationship between the ecological status of areas defined by all biodiversity versus only threatened species, although they also demonstrate that significant exceptions do exist where threatened species do not always accurately indicate the ecological status of wider biodiversity., Spatial and temporal analyses show large variation in ecological status across Great Britain both within the area made available for shale gas licensing and within individual environmental zones. In total, however, 63% of hectads across Britain have suffered a net reduction in our biodiversity-based indicator since 1970., Synthesis and applications. We provide a method and develop a biodiversity-based indicator for the assessment and prioritization of biodiversity at large spatial scales. We highlight the potential applications of this approach for the prioritization of areas that would benefit from conservation and restoration. We also emphasize the danger of insufficient consideration of more widespread species and not just rare and threatened species and habitats as indicators of ecological status when prioritizing large-scale national infrastructure projects. Our method should be a useful tool to complement existing environmental impact assessment methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in applied conservation biology, yet the predictive ability of these models is often tested only on detection/non-detection data. The probability of long-term population persistence, however, depends not only upon patch occupancy but upon more fundamental population parameters such as mean population density and stability over time. 2. Here, we test estimated probability of occurrence scores generated from SDMs built using species occupancy data against independent empirical data on population density and stability for 20 bird and butterfly species across 1941 sites over 15 years. We devised a measure of population stability over time which was independent of mean density and time-series duration, yet positively correlated with risk of local extinction. This may be a useful surrogate measure of population persistence for use in applied conservation. 3. We found that probability of occurrence scores were significantly positively correlated with mean population density for both butterflies and birds. In contrast, probability of occurrence scores were at best weakly positively correlated with population stability. Referring to established ecological theory, we discuss why SDMs may be appropriate for predicting population density but not stability. 4. Synthesis and applications. Species distribution models are often constructed using species occupancy data because, for the majority of species and regions, these are the best data available. The models are then often used for projecting species' distributions in the future and identifying areas where management could be targeted to improve species' prospects. However, our results suggest that an overreliance on these SDMs may result in an exclusive focus on landscape management approaches that promote patch occupancy and density, but may overlook features important for long-term population persistence such as population stability. Other landscape metrics that take into account habitat heterogeneity or configuration may be required to predict population stability. To understand species persistence under rapid environmental change, count data from standardised monitoring schemes are an invaluable resource. These data provide additional insights into the factors affecting species' extinction risks, which cannot easily be inferred from species' occupancy data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses research on the implications of the staging behavior of Red Knot or Calidris canutus for monitoring its mass and population size in Delaware Bay. The researchers used mark-recapture techniques and resightings of birds that were marked in the previous year to monitor the staging behavior of the bird in the area. Using staging duration and mass gains of the birds, they estimated a passage population size of 18,000 Red Knots in 2004, which reached an average mass of 111 grams and an average gained mass at 7.2 grams per day.

Many species, including shorebirds, feed during both day and night, yet little is known about how this affects behavior and habitat preferences. European Golden-Plovers (Pluvialis apricaria) and Northern Lapwings (Vanellus vanellus) feeding on arable farmland were more widely dispersed at night: nocturnal flocks were smaller, typically monospecific, and occurred in many more fields than diurnal mixed-species flocks. Diurnal numbers of European Golden-Plovers could not be used to predict nocturnal numbers; this indicates that ranging behavior differed between day and night. For both species, nocturnal feeding was recorded on almost all nights, irrespective of moon phase. Northern Lapwing nocturnal feeding activity decreased with increasing cloud cover and decreasing ground temperature, but no clear relationships were detected between European Golden Plovers' nocturnal feeding activity and environmental variables. Habitat selection differed between day and night, and between species at night. Diurnal studies of habitat choice and site selection may misrepresent the full requirements of such species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science monitoring of common birds often involves volunteers visiting selected survey locations twice per year, with interannual differences in the number of birds detected used to infer population trends. Two processes, changes in the timing of migration and breeding in response to climate change, and changes in the timing of surveys by volunteers, may cause variation in the number of birds detected, leading to biases in inferred population trends. We assessed the magnitude of potential biases using the UK Breeding Bird Survey, comparing survey timing, species phenologies and apparent trend biases between 1994–98 and 2013–17. To control for large-scale geographic effects, we focussed on a subset of 888 surveyed 1 km squares in South-East England. Survey dates became significantly earlier, advancing by 2–4 days on average. We calculated seasonal patterns of bird abundance for 68 species. After standardising these to remove long-term abundance trends, median detection dates were advanced by 0.82 days on average. At the species level, the majority of changes were ± 2 days and only five species showed a significant advancement in median detection date. However, species' phenological changes alone are capable of inducing between an 8% suppression and 21% enhancement of species' trends, although the majority are ± 2%. Effects of a similar magnitude are apparent if survey timings are also allowed to change, although different species are affected. Small modifications to the statistical model used to generate trends can control for changes in survey timing, but without additional survey visits, or using data from other sources, we cannot currently control for seasonal variation in detectability. Although the average effects shown here are small, biases could become increasingly important for some species, and we recommend organisers of biodiversity monitoring schemes assess whether their methods are resistant to variations in species phenology and survey timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the publication of the deliberations of the Avian Population Estimates Panel in 1997 (APEP1) there have been three other estimates of the population sizes of breeding and wintering species of bird in Great Britain. Here, we have used the results of the last two of these (APEP3 and APEP4), with data from Bird Atlas 2007-11 and Breeding Bird Survey population trends to calculate estimates of the population sizes of 85 species that breed in Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Information on the status of biodiversity is crucial for species conservation and management. Large scale assessments are only feasible through citizen science but some taxa are poorly monitored because few people specialise in them. We explore alleviating this problem by using data collected for poorly monitored species as an add-on to existing bird surveys. Since 1995, participants in the annual Breeding Bird Survey have recorded the abundance of mammals during their surveys. We demonstrate the value of these data by developing spatial models of relative abundance for nine common and easily detected mammal species. Rabbit, brown hare and mountain hare all showed widespread declines. Conversely, deer showed increases throughout their ranges, with the exception of the red deer whose population was predominantly stable. The grey squirrel continues to increase in several areas. The red fox, the only carnivore with enough data, showed significant large declines. The collection of data on taxa other than the primary target has particular merit where the secondary taxa can be detected effectively by methods devised for the core survey. In such cases the data are inexpensive and inherit some of the benefits of the underlying structure and power of the core survey. However, the efficacy of the primary study design may vary for the members of secondary taxa and may not be temporally or spatially suitable for all of them. Although more volunteer training may be required, there are also opportunities to engage and enthuse people about conservation issues of other species groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to ensure that the placement of future wind energy developments does not conflict with important areas for bats, surveys and analyses are required to deliver a robust understanding of large-scale patterns in species’ distributions and abundance. We demonstrate that extensive presence-absence survey data can be collected for bats across a large (> 20,000 km 2 ) region of southern Scotland using volunteers supplemented with additional fieldworker effort in remote areas. We advocate a survey design that allows data to be collected for all bat species, but provide more focused analyses on three species (Leisler's bat, noctule and Nathusius' pipistrelle) that are currently considered to be at highest risk from wind turbines. We estimate that between 16% and 24% of the regional populations of these three high risk species overlap existing and approved wind farms, with 50% of this overlap concentrated at just 10% of wind farms. This emphasises the importance of new wind farm placement to minimise impact on these species. We have stratified the region according to the potential impact on bats of future wind farm development, highlighting those areas in the top 1%, 5% and 10% of risk. We conclude that there is a need for higher quality data of this type in order to inform spatial models of bat distribution and activity. As a minimum standard, researchers working on bats should prioritise the collection and use of presence-absence data with consideration of the underlying survey design and representativeness of the data collected. This can be achieved most cost-effectively by working with the public to develop large-scale acoustic monitoring schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most important GIScience research areas in biogeography and are the primary means by which the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions and ranges are investigated. Dispersal is an important ecological process for species responding to changing climates, however, SDMs and their subsequent spatial products rarely reflect accessibility to any future suitable environment. Dispersal-related movement can be confounded by factors that vary across landscapes and climates, as well as within and among species, and it has therefore remained difficult to parametrise in SDMs. Here we compared 20 models that have previously been used (or have the potential to be used) to represent dispersal processes in SDM to predict future range shifts in response to climate change. We assessed the different dispersal models in terms of their accuracy at predicting future distributions, as well as the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Atlas data for 50 bird species from 1988 to 1991 in Great Britain were treated as base distributions (t1), with the species–environment relationships extrapolated (using three commonly used statistical methods) to 2008–2011 (t2). Dispersal (in the form of the 20 different models) was simulated from the base distribution (t1) to 2008–2011 (t2). The results were then combined and used to identify locations that were both abiotically suitable (obtained from the statistical methods) and accessible (obtained from the dispersal models). The accuracy of these coupled projections was assessed with the 2008–2011 atlas data (the observed t2distribution). There was substantial variation in the accuracy of the different dispersal models, and in general, the more restrictive dispersal models (e.g. fixed rate dispersal) resulted in lower accuracy for the metrics which reward correct prediction of presences. Ensemble models of the dispersal methods (generated by combining multiple projection outcomes) were created for each species, and a new Ensemble Agreement Index (EAI), which ranges from 0 (no agreement among models) to 1 (full agreement among models) was developed to quantify uncertainty among the projections. EAI values ranged from 0.634 (some areas of disagreement and therefore medium uncertainty among dispersal models) to 0.999 (large areas of agreement and low uncertainty among dispersal models). The results of this research highlight the importance of incorporating dispersal and also illustrate that the method with which dispersal is simulated greatly impacts the projected future distribution. This has important implications for studies aimed at predicting the effects of changing environmental conditions on species’ distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many countries, bats have high conservation prioritisation owing to their trophic position, habitat associations and threat level, and many have dedicated management plans. However, poor knowledge of species' ecology, identification issues and surveying challenges mean that large-scale monitoring to produce required distribution and abundance information is less developed than for some other taxa. Static detectors deployed to record bats throughout whole nights have been recommended for standardised acoustic monitoring but to date their cost has prohibited wide uptake. Here we describe an extensive survey approach in which members of the public borrowed detectors to participate in a large-scale monitoring and mapping project. Covering a 15% sample of the study area over two years, the survey generated over 600,000 bat recordings. We describe a semi-automated step-wise method for processing this large volume of recordings to assign identity to species or genus level with low error rates. Twelve species were recorded during the survey, ranging from the near ubiquitous Common Pipistrelle Pipistrellus pipistrellus to the locally scarce Leisler's bat Nyctalus leisleri . We show pronounced patterns of seasonality consistent with post-breeding dispersal and new information on nocturnal activity patterns. Using regression trees we generate new maps of standardised variation in activity which is likely to reflect underlying spatial variation in relative abundance. These reveal hitherto unknown patterns for species of superficially similar status. We conclude that with logistical support and centralised automated species identification it is now possible for the public to contribute to acoustic bat monitoring at an unprecedented scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climatedriven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species ' range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. Th is makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for diff erent circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. Th is tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscapescale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time - due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species - but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records - as assessed using widespread metrics - need not indicate a model's ability to predict the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a comprehensive and objective picture of bird distributions relative to habitats across Britain. Bird species presence/absence data from an extensive field survey and habitat data from the remotely sensed UK Land Cover Map 2000 were analysed in 36,920 tetrads (2km×2km) across Britain (a 65% sample of Britain''s c. 240000km2). Cluster analysis linked birds to generalised landscapes based on distinctive habitat assemblages. Maps of the clusters showed strong regional patterns associated with the habitat assemblages. Cluster centroid coordinates for each bird species and each habitat were combined across clusters to derive individualised bird–habitat preference indices and examine the importance of individual habitats for each bird species. Even rare species and scarce habitats showed successful linkages. Results were assessed against published accounts of bird–habitat relations. Objective corroboration strongly supported the associations. Relatively scarce coastal and wetland habitats proved particularly important for many birds. However, extensive arable farmland and woodland habitats were also favoured by many species, despite reported declines in bird numbers in these habitats. The fact that habitat-specialists do not or cannot move habitat is perhaps a reason for declining numbers where habitats have become unsuitable. This study showed that there are unifying principles determining bird–habitat relations which apply and can be quantified at the national scale, and which corroborate and complement the cumulative knowledge of many and varied surveys and ecological studies. This ‘generality’ suggests that we may be able, reliably and objectively, to integrate and scale up such disparate studies to the national scale, using this generalised framework. It also suggests the potential for a landscape ecology approach to bird–habitat analyses. Such developments will be important steps in building models to develop and test the sustainable management of landscapes for birds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Aim: This paper describes the development of novel indices of bird-habitat preference to examine bird species' use of habitats and their distributions relative to habitats. It assesses the implications for bird conservation regionally and the scope for biodiversity assessments generally. Location: A 200 km by 400 km area of farmland with seminatural and urban areas, covering south-eastern England. Methods: Cluster analysis was used to link birds to landscapes. Cluster centroid coordinate values were processed to derive indices of bird-habitat preference. Further developments assessed the relative values of individual habitats for birds. Results: Clustering objectively linked birds to landscapes. Maps of the clusters showed strong regional patterns associated with distinctive habitat assemblages. Derived indices related bird species directly to individual habitats and habitats to birds. Even rare species and scarce habitats showed successful linkages, often to each other. Objective corroboration strongly supported the associations of coastal, wetland, urban and woodland birds and habitats; but, it suggested that farmland birds, whose numbers have nearly halved since 1977, may prefer alternative habitats. Main conclusions: Land cover maps from remote sensing provide an effective way to link birds to habitats and vice versa. Thus, generalized habitat maps might be used to extrapolate localized or sample-based bird observations or the results of autecological studies, helping to predict and understand bird distributions in the wider countryside. The weak links between farmland birds and farmland habitats in a region dominated by farming, suggests that reasons for the decline in farmland birds may be deep seated and thus hard to reverse. The procedures described are repeatable elsewhere and applicable more generally to evaluate landscapes and biodiversity. It is suggested that remote sensing could rarely be bettered as a means of assessing habitats, comprehensively, over wide areas, in most parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public data archiving (PDA) is widely advocated as a means of achieving open data standards, leading to improved data preservation, increased scientific reproducibility, and transparency, as well as additional data use.Public data archiving was primarily conceived to archive data from short‐term, single‐purpose scientific studies. It is now more widely applied, including to large‐scale citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes which combine the efforts of volunteers with professional scientists.This may affect the financial security of such schemes by reducing income from data and analytical services. Communication between scheme organizers and researchers may be disrupted, reducing scientific quality and impeding scheme development. It may also have an impact on the participation of some volunteers.Synthesis and applications. In response to the challenges of public data archiving for citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes, the archive function of scheme organizations should be better recognized by those promoting open data principles. Increased financial support from the public sector or from commercial or academic data users may offset financial risk. Those in favour of public data archiving should do more to facilitate communication between nonscheme users and the originating schemes, while a more flexible approach to data archiving may be required to address potential impacts on volunteer participation. In response to the challenges of public data archiving for citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes, the archive function of scheme organizations should be better recognized by those promoting open data principles. Increased financial support from the public sector or from commercial or academic data users may offset financial risk. Those in favour of public data archiving should do more to facilitate communication between nonscheme users and the originating schemes, while a more flexible approach to data archiving may be required to address potential impacts on volunteer participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade ( N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade ( N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To assess which components of habitat are associated with Hawfinch occupancy at landscape (10-km), local (tetrad) and fine (nest) spatial scales, during a period of population decline and range contraction. Methods: Bird Atlas 2008-11 data were used to determine areas of Hawfinch loss and persistence over 20 years. Current habitat was measured and compared to look for correlates that helped explain the differing status at both 10-km and tetrad scales. Fine scale habitat data collected at nest sites were compared with random locations to investigate within-wood nest site selection. Results: At both 10-km and tetrad scales, Hawfinch persistence is more likely where woodland cover is greater. Recent woodland management was less evident in tetrads where the species persisted. At the nest site scale, the only relationship detected was for nests to be close to canopy openings. Conclusions: Maintaining and increasing broadleaved woodland area is likely to benefit Hawfinch. Within woods, maintenance and creation of open areas may enhance nesting opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Measuring connectivity is crucial for informing conservation management. • We develop a new technique using long-term monitoring data. • Butterfly connectivity has increased by 64% in recent years. • Connectivity in birds has remained stable over time. • Our indicator provides a 'species-eye-view' of connectivity. Habitat loss is a significant driver of biodiversity loss, causing fragmentation into small, isolated patches of suitable land cover. This reduces the permeability of landscapes to the movement of individuals and reduces the likelihood of metapopulation persistence. Quantifying functional connectivity, the ability of a focal species to move between resource patches, is therefore essential for conservation management. There is substantial evidence supporting a technique based on 'population synchrony'- the degree of correlation in time-series of annual population growth rates between different long-term monitoring sites, to provide a measure of functional connectivity. However, synchronised population dynamics are not only driven by the movement of individuals between sites, but also shared environmental conditions which must be accounted for. Here, we use species survey data from over four decades to investigate average levels and temporal trends in population synchrony for 58 British bird and butterfly species. We first show that population synchrony is significantly associated with synchrony in some seasonal climatic variables. Once we accounted for spatiotemporal climatic patterns, we found that synchrony in butterflies declined over time by 71% between 1985 and 2000 but increased by 64% in recent years. Synchrony in birds showed some decline between 1999 and 2005, after which there appears to being recovery, however most species (74%) show no significant overall change in synchrony. Our proposed indicator provides a 'species-eye-view' of functional connectivity using widely available abundance data. Developing such indicators of functional connectivity, which can be updated annually, is crucial to improve the effectiveness of land management strategies for conservation under increasing environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is leading to the development of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies that are likely to have substantial impacts on global biodiversity. Of these, approaches to maintain carbon within existing natural ecosystems could have particularly large benefits for biodiversity. However, the geographical distributions of terrestrial carbon stocks and biodiversity differ. Using conservation planning analyses for the New World and Britain, we conclude that a carbon-only strategy would not be effective at conserving biodiversity, as have previous studies. Nonetheless, we find that a combined carbon-biodiversity strategy could simultaneously protect 90% of carbon stocks (relative to a carbon-only conservation strategy) and > 90% of the biodiversity (relative to a biodiversity-only strategy) in both regions. This combined approach encapsulates the principle of complementarity, whereby locations that contain different sets of species are prioritised, and hence disproportionately safeguard localised species that are not protected effectively by carbon-only strategies. It is efficient because localised species are concentrated into small parts of the terrestrial land surface, whereas carbon is somewhat more evenly distributed; and carbon stocks protected in one location are equivalent to those protected elsewhere. Efficient compromises can only be achieved when biodiversity and carbon are incorporated together within a spatial planning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An increasing number of studies are taking the important first step in global efforts to conserve key ecosystem services by mapping their spatial distributions. However, a lack of primary data for most services in most places has largely forced such mapping exercises to be based on proxies. The common way of producing these proxies is through benefits transfer-based mapping, in which estimates of the values of services are obtained from a small region for particular land cover types, and then extrapolated to a larger area for these same types. However, the errors that may result from such extrapolations are poorly understood. Here, we separate the generalization errors associated with benefits transfer mapping into three constituent components – uniformity, sampling, and regionalization error – and evaluate their effects using primary data for four ecosystem services in England. Variation in ecosystem services within a particular land cover type (uniformity error) alone led to a poor fit to primary data for most services; sampling effects (sampling error) and extrapolating from a small region to a larger area (regionalization error) led to substantial, but highly variable, additional reductions in the fit to primary data. We also show that combining multiple ecosystem services into a single layer is likely to be even more problematic as it contains the errors in each of the constituent layers. These errors are sufficiently large to undermine decisions that might be based on such extrapolated maps. Greatly improved mapping of the actual distributions of ecosystem services is therefore needed to achieve the goal of conserving these vital assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In human-dominated regions, protected areas are complemented by other conservation strategies (e.g., restrictive zoning, incentive payments) to maintain biodiversity and other ecosystem services. These strategies are often not mutually exclusive, with many areas covered by multiple (tiered) management strategies. However, it is not known whether tiering increases (or decreases) representation of ecosystem services. Here, we compare the representation of four ecosystem services by areas protected by both tiered and single conservation strategies (protected areas, restrictive zoning, and incentive payments to landowners) in a human-dominated region (England). Tiering always coincided with the highest levels of stored carbon, sometimes coincided with high biodiversity and agricultural production, but never coincided with high recreational value. We also show that tiering is common in England and biased towards upland areas. Future evaluations of the effectiveness of conservation strategies should consider the degree of overlap of the different strategies fully to understand which are most effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. An increasing number of studies are examining the distribution and congruence of ecosystem services, often with the goal of identifying areas that will provide multiple ecosystem service ‘hotspots’. However, there is a paucity of data on most ecosystem services, so proxies (e.g. estimates of a service for a particular land cover type) are frequently used to map their distribution. To date, there has been little attempt to quantify the effects of using proxies on distribution maps of ecosystem services, despite the potentially large errors associated with such data sets. 2. Here, we provide the first study examining the effects of using proxies on ecosystem service maps and the degree of spatial congruence of these maps with primary data, using England as a case study. 3. We show that land cover based proxies provide a poor fit to primary data surfaces for biodiversity, recreation and carbon storage, and that correlations between ecosystem services change depending on whether primary or proxy data are used for the analyses. 4. The poor fit of proxies to primary data was also evident when we selected hotspots of single ecosystem services, and consistency between raw and modelled surfaces was extremely low when considering the locations that were coincident hotspots for multiple services. 5. Synthesis and applications. Proxies may be suitable for identifying broad-scale trends in ecosystem services, but even relatively good proxies are likely to be unsuitable for identifying hotspots or priority areas for multiple services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Reductions in resource availability, associated with land-use change and agricultural intensification in the UK and Europe, have been linked with the widespread decline of many farmland bird species over recent decades. However, the underlying ecological processes which link resource availability and population trends are poorly understood. 2. We construct a spatial depletion model to investigate the relationship between the population persistence of granivorous birds within the agricultural landscape and the temporal dynamics of stubble field availability, an important source of winter food for many of those species. 3. The model is capable of accurately predicting the distribution of a given number of finches and buntings amongst patches of different stubble types in an agricultural landscape over the course of a winter and assessing the relative value of different landscapes in terms of resource availability. 4. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model is relatively robust to estimates of energetic requirements, search efficiency and handling time but that daily seed survival estimates have a strong influence on model fit. Understanding resource dynamics in agricultural landscapes is highlighted as a key area for further research. 5. There was a positive relationship between the predicted number of bird days supported by a landscape over-winter and the breeding population trend for yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella, a species for which survival has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics, but not for linnet Carduelis cannabina, a species for which productivity has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. We believe this model can be used to guide the effective delivery of over-winter food resources under agri-environment schemes and to assess the impacts on granivorous birds of changing resource availability associated with novel changes in land use. This could be very important in the future as farming adapts to an increasingly dynamic trading environment, in which demands for increased agricultural production must be reconciled with objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Ecosystems support biodiversity and also provide goods and services that are beneficial to humans. The extent to which the locations that are most valuable for ecosystem services coincide with those that support the most biodiversity is of critical importance when designing conservation and land management strategies. There are, however, few studies on which to base any kind of conclusion about possible spatial patterns of association between ecosystem services and biodiversity. Moreover, little is known about the sensitivity of the conclusions to the quality of the data available, or to the choice and size of the region used for analysis. 2. Here, we first present national-scale estimates of the spatial covariance in areas important for ecosystem services and biodiversity (richness of species of conservation concern), using Britain as a case study. We then explore how these associations are sensitive to the spatial resolution of the available data, the spatial extent of our study region and to regional variation across the study area. 3. Our analyses reveal a mixture of negative and positive associations. In particular, the regionalization analysis shows that one can arrive at diametrically opposing conclusions about relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity by studying the same question within different areas, even within a moderately small island. 4. Synthesis and applications. In a policy context, the location-specific nature of relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity underscores the importance of multi-scale environmental decision-making, so as to reflect both local conditions and broader-scale priorities. The results also suggest that efforts to establish general patterns of congruence in ecosystem services and biodiversity may offer a less constructive way forward than do more regional approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distribution models are commonly used to generalise across species distributions, to project future potential range changes, and to identify potential areas for species reintroductions and recovery plans. Building several models that incorporate different potential causal factors is a useful way of formalising alternative hypotheses. We developed a series of models to test hypotheses about the factors influencing the distribution of a species of conservation importance – the hen harrier Circus cyaneus. A climate-based model using continental distribution data was consistent with the continental distribution and observational studies in Britain. According to the climate-model the parts of Britain occupied by the hen harrier are the least climatically suitable. Habitat-based models using detailed distribution data from seven Scottish areas explained the recent British distribution well, with birds largely confined to heather dominated areas. These patterns were inconsistent with historical data on the species’ distribution, its habitat use in other parts of its range and with the climate-based model. Our burn intensity index of gamekeeper activity was highly correlated with climatic suitability within the best 25% of 10km squares by modelled habitat suitability, negatively associated with the productivity data and associated with a decrease in abundances between 1998 and 2004. Gamekeeper activity may be keeping hen harriers out of the most climatically suitable areas with habitat similar to that which they currently occupy within Britain and or keeping the population numbers too low and isolated for the natural re-expansion of the species into parts of the range where it was historically extirpated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

1. A principal goal of protected-area networks is to maintain viable populations of as many species as possible, particularly those that are vulnerable to environmental change outside reserves. Ideally, one wants to be able to protect all biodiversity when selecting priority areas for conservation. 2. Using the area-prioritization algorithm ZONATION, we identified the locations where UK Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP) species of mammals, birds, herptiles, butterflies and plants occur in concentrated populations with high connectivity. Both these features are likely to be correlated with population persistence. The analyses were successful in maintaining a high proportion of the connectivity of narrow-range species, and large total amounts of the connectivity of wider-range species over 10% of the land surface of Great Britain. 3. Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP – high priority) species of one taxonomic group were not particularly good surrogates (indicators) for BAP species of other taxonomic groups. Hence, maintaining population concentrations of one taxonomic group did not guarantee doing likewise for other taxa. 4. Species with narrow geographic ranges were most effective at predicting conservation success for other species, probably because they represent the range of environmental conditions required by other species. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study identifies landscape-scale priority areas for conservation of priority species from several taxonomic groups, using the Zonation software. ‘Indicator groups’ were only partially successful as predictors of priority areas for other taxonomic groups, and therefore, the identification of priority areas for biodiversity conservation should include information from all taxonomic groups available. Larger areas should be protected to account for species not included in the analyses. Conservation solutions based on data for many different species, and particularly those species with narrowly defined ranges, appear to be most effective at protecting other rare taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Each May, red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) congregate in Delaware Bay during their northward migration to feed on horseshoe crab eggs (Limulus polyphemus) and refuel for breeding in the Arctic. During the 1990s, the Delaware Bay harvest of horseshoe crabs for bait increased 10-fold, leading to a more than 90% decline in the availability of their eggs for knots. The proportion of knots achieving weights of more than 180 grams by 26-28 May, their main departure period, dropped from 0.6-0.8 to 0. 14-0.4 over 1997-2007. During the same period, the red knot population stopping in Delaware Bay declined by more than 75%, in part because the annual survival rate of adult knots wintering in Tierra del Fuego declined. Despite restrictions, the 2007 horseshoe crab harvest was still greater than the 1990 harvest, and no recovery of knots was detectable. We propose an adaptive management strategy with recovery goals and annual monitoring that, if adopted, will both allow red knot and horseshoe crab populations to recover and permit a sustainable harvest of horseshoe crabs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Millions of shorebirds migrate each year through a small number of highly productive staging areas where they often conflict with fisheries interests. Delaware Bay, USA, is a major shorebird stopover site where, in spring, many thousands of shorebirds undergo rapid mass gain by feeding on the eggs of commercially harvested horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus. 2. Environmental factors may cause deviations from the best migration schedule. We used within-year mass gain data from red knot Calidris canutus caught in Delaware Bay between 1998 and 2005 to determine the degree of flexibility individuals have to vary migration speed. 3. Mass gain by birds below 133 g was shown to comprise 15·3% fat (39 kJ g−1), the remainder being lean mass (6 kJ g−1). Above this critical level, fat comprised 83·9% of mass deposition. The rates of energy deposition (kJ d−1) were therefore fundamentally different between the two states but were among the highest ever recorded among vertebrates (5–7 × basic metabolic rate). 4. A total of 36–62% of the variation in observed rates of energy deposition between 1998 and 2002 was explained by a year factor, date and mass at initial capture and interaction terms, such that light-weight birds at the end of May had rates of mass gain or energy deposition two to three times higher than birds of similar mass in mid-May, indicating that birds were attempting to achieve a certain mass by a certain date. In 2003 and 2005, this relationship broke down as a result of lower densities of eggs. 5. Synthesis and application. The maintenance of high densities of crab eggs required for high rates of mass gain in red knot requires severe cuts in, or the complete cessation of, the crab harvest, reduced human and raptor-related disturbance as well as management of beaches to provide sufficient crab-spawning habitat. These findings are widely applicable to other systems where harvesting activities come into conflict with migrating animals and show that certain sections of the population, in this case the long-distance migrants from South America, will be impacted more than short-distance migrants whose physiology may give them access to alternative food resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]