Search

This study presents the validation process of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ) adapted for the IT sector, focusing on its reliability and validity within a German-speaking context (IT professionals in Austria). The COPSOQ is an established instrument for assessing psychosocial work environment factors. While previous research has highlighted its applicability across various cultural settings, this paper delves into its psychometric properties through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) using a sample of 200 IT professionals. The survey, conducted online, adapted the German COPSOQ including additional items relevant to the IT work environment, with some items being removed for greater efficiency and specificity. The analysis yielded seven factors, explaining 52.2% of the variance and reflecting key psychosocial dimensions: job identification, influencing factors, life satisfaction, self-determination, social support, life-dominant balance, and job concerns. The paper argues for the removal of certain items with loadings below.40 to enhance the questionnaire's economy and efficiency. Furthermore, it suggests that the refined COPSOQ could be a more effective tool for assessing work stress among IT workers, potentially leading to better-informed workplace interventions and improved prognosis for employee well-being. This research underscores the importance of adapting psychosocial assessment tools to specific industry contexts, providing a robust foundation for future studies on the work environment and its impact on quality of life and job satisfaction among IT professionals, and addressing global risks associated with workplace stress. Additionally, the paper ties these findings with broader global risks, such as technology-induced stress and the future of work, which are critical for developing resilient organizational frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Our world is characterized by a dynamic landscape of variations, complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities (VUCA). These elements manifest in various domains, including politics, economics, communication, information, science, and research, all of which significantly impact our lives. It is crucial for policymakers and managers to adopt a forward-thinking approach to comprehend these VUCA elements and their implications for the future. The future will undoubtedly differ from the present and the past. However, humans possess an inherent desire to understand and anticipate the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, exploring and understanding the future is not just a curiosity, but a necessity. Futures Studies can serve as a valuable tool in this context, enabling us to efficiently leverage opportunities and resources to navigate the chaotic environment. Review studies play a pivotal role in this process by reviewing existing work and synthesizing knowledge in a specific field. This study aims to collate findings related to the key concepts of Futures Research, thereby contributing to our collective understanding and preparation for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories, by providing policymakers with educational, research, and consulting services, before the introduction of policy recommendations to the regulatory and legal structures, make it possible to test the policies on a small scale. Thus, the waste of huge resources allocated to the development of political solutions and additional damages may be prevented. On the other hand, future research as a process gives a more complete understanding of the forces of the long-term future, which should be taken into account in developing policy-making, planning, and decision-making. Therefore, future research of science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories to synchronize with today's world and for optimal policies is a necessity addressed in the present study. This study was applied in terms of objective and mixed in terms of method (literature review). In this survey, experts' opinions, interaction analysis, and scenarios have been used. The approach of the present study was future research. For data analysis, the SPSS, MicMac, and ScenarioWizard were used. The statistical population included a group of experts in the field of science, technology, and innovation policy-making. The analysis of data related to different states using ScenarioWizard showed that the probability of occurrence of 9 scenarios was more than other scenarios and the probability of occurrence of other 297 scenarios was very small and weak. The initial review of the scenarios showed the relative dominance of static state over desired and critical states. Out of 9 scenarios, 4 scenarios were strong and more probable. Scenario 1 with an impact score of 221 was the strongest, most desired, and most probable scenario facing science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories. Scenario 2 with an impact score of 181 was one of the most desired and probable scenarios facing science, technology, and innovation policy-making laboratories. Scenario 3 had an impact score of 102. Under this scenario, 4 key influencing driving forces were desired and 8 key influencing driving forces were static. Scenario 4 had an impact score of 65. Under this scenario, 8 key influencing driving forces were static and 4 key influencing driving forces were undesired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This concept paper explores possible collective identities for a future wildland fire workforce. Taking inspiration from the work of futurists who foresee an end to the dominant fire exclusion/suppression paradigm, and assuming that an emerging fire restoration/resilience paradigm shift replaces it, this paper engages in speculative explorations of the process and product of this paradigm shift with respect to the future collective identities of a workforce conducting ecological fire management. Social constructionist assumptions from symbolic interactionist sociological theory, Gramscian political theory's concept of hegemony, and new social movement theory's concept of collective identity all provide the intellectual foundations for the discussion. This concept paper argues that in order to actualize a paradigm shift, more than advances in scientific research or reforms of government policies will be required—the wildland fire community will need to become (or join) a social movement engaged in collective actions. An imaginary social movement, the "Greenfire revolution," is invented to help illustrate how the selected theories and concepts might apply in the social construction of ecological fire management and the collective identities of its future workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, and health adversity. I give brief examples of each and provide a short case description of six of the most prominent dyads. Very few of these dyads have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, or now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing the NaTech-style nomenclature across domains, I aim to provide the basic building blocks for a precise understanding of contemporary risk mechanics. This step is often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, dyadic analysis is an important prerequisite for systemic understanding of complex cascading effects that depend on triadic or tetradic risk relationships. In reality, even if systemic, and existential risks, as they emerge in the twenty-first century, depend on a myriad of cascading effects, they cannot be fully understood simply by looking at the whole system and attempting to analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming to gain a better overview. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current text pursues an argument in favor of unorthodox and unrestrained futures thinking defying what is usually considered to constitute a sound political judgement. Accordingly, the efforts in this paper are directed at finding a way to establish the reasonableness and coherence of alternative images of the future that are usually deemed implausible remote possibilities by the political realm. The problem that this endeavor represents will be approached from two conceptual vantage points that would eventually converge – the first one concentrating on the issue of plausibility, and the other – on the utility of counterfactuality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During a Futures Study, researchers analyze a significant quantity of information dispersed across multiple document databases to gather conjectures about future events, making it challenging for researchers to retrieve all predicted events described in publications quickly. Generating a timeline of future events is time-consuming and prone to errors, requiring a group of experts to execute appropriately. This work introduces NERMAP, a system capable of semi-automating the process of discovering future events, organizing them in a timeline through Named Entity Recognition supported by machine learning, and gathering up to 83% of future events found in documents when compared to humans. The system identified future events that we failed to detect during the tests. Using the system allows researchers to perform the analysis in significantly less time, thus reducing costs. Therefore, the proposed approach enables a small group of researchers to efficiently process and analyze a large volume of documents, enhancing their capability to identify and comprehend information in a timeline while minimizing costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Future Day is a 24-h round-the-world global conversation about the futures and represents a new kind of futures method. Launched for the first time by the Millennium Project in 2014, it is an open large-scale global participatory discussion among self-selected future-oriented people from around the world. The work introduces the main characteristics of the WFD method, the protocol of analysis, first considerations about its strengths and weaknesses, and the main results of the 2021 application on March 1. The results are reported in form of suggestions and solutions aggregated in clusters and macro-clusters related to some of the global challenges facing humanity and set a common agenda for further discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research context for this article is a specific lighting industry professional event, focusing on the possible future of light across the dimensions of body, object (both human-scale and building), and metropolis. Light becomes the theme to generate visions and insights about longer term developments from personal, social, and business viewpoints. The event was designed as a location-specific format for the multi-awarded Silo 486, Helsinki, by Lighting Design Collective. The format is inspired by Brian Eno's 1970s "Oblique Strategies," therefore an approach derived from fine arts and popular culture, within the constructivist episteme. The specific target of this event is thought leaders and/or the next generation of architectural, design, and creative industry leaders, with an invitation list of 15–20, selected according to the "Elite Club" open innovation principle (Verganti et al., 2008). The event was held three times, from 2014 through 2016, during the Helsinki Design Week, as integral part of its program. The authors were main initiator and moderator of the event, as they designed the format in 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The aim of this study is to present the future approach of marketing research of water pools according to the health status in the post-corona period. Material and Methods: This study was conducted with an integrated approach. In the first step, by examining the thematic literature and using futuristic research technique, the initial conceptual model was extracted with a deductive (quantitative) approach and then inductively (qualitatively) the model was obtained and completed. Finally, the designed model was tested using Mick Mac analysis. In the qualitative section, based on the content analysis of the studies, 23 drivers were finally identified for the future of Tehran pool water marketing research. In order to identify and classify the identified indicators, Mick Mac analysis in MICMAC software was used. The study population was sports management experts and managers of Tehran water pools. 20 people were identified as a sample by snowball technique. Results: A set of drivers (23 drivers) in the dimensions of personnel, customer, children, elderly, physical services, planning services, special services, location, environment, shower and locker room, health, direct advertising, strategy, ticket, political, economic, social, Culture, construction and rent, competitors, laws, championships and subsidies were recognized as effective studies. Conclusion: Based on Mick Mac analysis or in other words, Mick Mac analysis, economic drivers-economic-laws-subsidies-construction and rent)environmental-health were identified as influential variables. Based on this, the scenario of financing and policy-making in order to increase the quality of existing pools, attracting financial support was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Critically re-imagining our energy systems is a major task for addressing climate change. Technological change or market signals do not automatically create new energy futures. Rather, political priorities and action shape the ambitions behind energy transitions. In response, this special issue is dedicated to re-thinking energy futures related to climate change, with attention to the social values and norms, hierarchical structures, and social imaginaries underlying decision-making in a carbon-constrained world. Three cross-cutting themes run across this special issue. First, the papers identify new ways of envisioning and creating low-carbon energy futures that engage a range of social actors. Second, the papers highlight the need for analyses that bridge the global and local scales. Third, this issue emphasizes the importance of dialogue across disciplinary perspectives to strengthen the role of environmental social science in decision-making and community responses to climate change and energy futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key question behind this article is, How is AI impacting futures research, with particular focus on foresight and design futures? To address such question, this article reports on selected epistemological and methodological traits of design futures research, on the nature of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the potential impact of AI on the design futures domain, offering a conceptual model as theoretical junction between the domains of foresight and design. Key topics and themes addressed were selectively focused on foresight, design, design futures, weak signals, and their role in relationship with visioning and the image, AI, and a multidisciplinary discussion of how these fields relate to each other. This article is based on desk research and dialogue among the two authors, both profiled professional experts in their respective fields of design futures and AI, with a track of experience both in academic and applied research. Therefore, sources include a rich texture of bibliographic information, combined with selected input from ongoing research activities on AI and related trends, as performed in the professional field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial intelligence (AI) has surpassed the level of science fiction; it is increasingly being used as an analysis tool in modern scientific research. AI is able to classify and cluster large amounts of data in a short time, which could potentially save a lot of time and money. Algorithms can also recognize patterns that scientists might overlook. These advantages are currently hardly exploited in futures studies. This article will focus on the impact of AI on the activities of a futurist. A distinction is made between predicting, exploring, and creating the future. The aim of this article is to discuss the possibilities and challenges of using AI in futures studies. One of the biggest challenges of using AI in futures studies is the dependence of AI on large amounts of data which are not available about the future. We therefore have to work with historical data. I emphasize that it is crucial for futurists to take advantage of the opportunities that AI offers in futures studies, but to be well aware of its disadvantages and limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that futures studies practice must have relevance and meaning for society and organizations—that is, it should be affective—and that it should be evaluated as such. Evaluation should be process-based, specifically by observing the way futures studies as a profession is managed and interacts with society. Within this context, "evaluation" is defined as merit determination through process review, using as central norm the raison d'être for futures studies, namely, it must enhance better long-term decision making in organizations and in society. Affectiveness is an emergent quality. Emergence is a property that a whole (such as the subject area of futures studies) displays which is not apparent in its parts. In other words, it is a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts of the whole. With this in mind, futures studies can be visualized as an "application system" comprising of various specialized subsystems such as conceptual development, methodological development, scanning and trend research, scenario development, and idealized planning. The article defends and proposes a process-based approach to the evaluation of affectiveness: one that is based on a heuristic learning and dialogue design in the practice of futures studies. The quest for affectiveness is a journey toward an ideal, perhaps never to be reached but forever a guide toward improving the relevance and meaning of an important profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Futures research is a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that uses a variety of methods to explore possible, plausible, and preferable futures. The goal is to develop foresight—insight into how and why the future could be different than today—to improve policy, planning, and decision making. Scores of futures research methods have been developed or adapted from other disciplines, beginning with pioneering work in the US military and RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s. But many social scientists and natural resource professionals are unaware of these methods and most have never heard of futures research as a distinct field of study. This paper presents a framework for categorizing futures research methods, reviews selected methods, and provides examples of their application to natural resource and environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the images of the future of Russia, which exist in the conscience of representatives of the modern Russian society. We have developed a comprehensive humanitarian analysis (CHA), which allows us to find a common denominator of social expectations in sources of different types. We introduce into scientific research such groups of sources as scientific forecasts, government and political programs, opinion polls and works of modern Russian literature. The results of our study include a description of the image of the future, which we have designated as "its own way" and two options of this way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the field of climate change adaptation research, "stories" are usually simply mined for data, developed as communication and engagement technologies, and used to envision different futures. But there are other ways of understanding people's narratives. This article explores how we can move away from understanding stories as cultural constructs that represent a reality and toward understanding them as the way in which adaptation is lived. The article investigates questions such as the following: As climate adaptation researchers, what can and should we do when we are told unsolicited stories? How can storytelling, as a way of life rather than as a source of data, inform and elaborate scientific approaches to adaptation research and planning? In this article, I move away from the literature that seeks to develop narrative methods in adaptation science. Instead, I focus on stories that we do not elicit and the world-making practice of storytelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article advocates that business schools include a formalized foresight educational experience more widely in their curriculums. As a group charged with educating business leaders of tomorrow, the cultivation of the skill-set and mind-set necessary for anticipating change and positioning organizations for future success and survival should no longer be left to chance. For the past decade, the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame has required all undergraduate students to take a course titled Foresight in Business and Society. During this time, the Mendoza foresight faculty team has gained perspective on the design and value of a futures research learning experience for our students. Five underlying design principles are presented that have shaped the delivery and execution of the course these revolve around: developing great leaders, confronting ambiguous questions, experiential understanding, rigorous exploration, and anticipation as a force for good. As with any design-based perspective, the article concludes with challenges and pitfalls in recognition that the process is not always linear or smooth. But to other educators on this journey, the challenges are manageable and the promise and prospects for students makes it worthwhile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although education policies in many African countries refer to the need for distance education to widen participation in universities, they have not articulated guidelines on how they plan to develop systems and structures that will support it. The purpose of this study was to develop a policy framework specific for distance education provision in conventional universities. A two-step approach was utilised to guide the process of the development of the framework. The first step was to analyse national education policies, which provide the educational vision of the country. The second step was to analyse distance education policy frameworks in order to provide specific criteria that need to be met when providing distance education. Futures research methodology was employed to look at policy interventions with the aim of identifying probable development in education that may influence distance education practices within the conventional university context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). The activities include research, education as well as societal interaction and networking. The FFRC has proceeded from a small unit of three devoted persons in 1992 to one of the key futures research institutes in Europe with about fifty staff members, hundreds of research and developmental projects, and more than a thousand publications. Although acknowledging the variety of futures studies topics and approaches nourished by the researchers, we conclude that facilitating expert-based and stakeholder-based futures studies processes is the key competence of the FFRC. Hybrid methods are continuously developed, meaning combinations of more specific techniques. A proper mix of tools and approaches to gather, analyze, organize, and interpret data is always searched for. At the end of the article, we present four scenarios of the future of the FFRC jointly made by the staff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In planning, prospective policies are often subjected to “what if” resiliency tests. The question is asked: would intended decisions work as well if unanticipated events were to occur? This testing approach has two principal problems: there are psychological impediments to an unbiased choice of the test events and the inventory of events from which to choose test events is essentially unbounded. This article describes a database of about one thousand future headlines that help overcome both issues. The headlines in this database describe future events; they are randomly accessed to avoid bias in the selection of events for testing resiliency and the large number of forecasts, while not an “unbounded universe” covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. In addition, many other uses are possible, including improving foresight, finding new market and product opportunities, analyzing competitive differentials, and testing possible strategies for novelty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach; (4) the process; (5) the content of the scenarios; (6) the outputs of the research; and (7) the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While no one can predict the future, informed forecasting can provide decision makers with information and intelligence to establish realistic and achievable goals. Gazing out to the year 2020, I envision four drivers of change that will likely affect the trajectory of terrorist groups and movements: (a) Rapidly evolving technology will offer benefits for both terrorist entities and the authorities who work to curtail their activities; (b) Increasing globalization and political upheaval will produce new and interesting alliances between groups with seemingly little in common (e.g., White supremacists and Mexican drug cartels); (c) The most successful terrorist movements will be those that adopt hybrid structures, integrating both hierarchical and networked structures to achieve maximum success; and (d) The blurring of boundaries on many fronts will make it increasingly difficult to find meaningful differences between gangs, criminal enterprises, political actors, and terrorists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is an issue-oriented substantive domain. Nevertheless, there are countless socio-economic, medico-techno-scientific, environmental and ethical philosophical questions that are far from being settled. In pursuit of a more desirable and sustainable future, this work problematizes current corporate responsibility (CR) research, education and practice. Design/methodology/approach – This contribution provides a critical perspective on the future of CR research and practice and offers a way forward based on theoretical prescience. Findings – The paper delineates a taxonomy of typical crises, categorized as burning, existential, overlooked and neglected crises. This taxonomy can be used as a tool for all forms of scenario analysis, empirical work and policymaking. This allows various futures issues to be given targeted interventions, assigned a focal theory, or allocated differentiated resources and appropriate time and space depending on their technical nature and the institutional context within which the issues unfold. Social implications – This paper argues that CR research risks losing steam despite its near ubiquitous nature and the major contributions hitherto made. Nevertheless, when problems are strategically thought out in the light of the taxonomy above, they provide promising avenues for insightful research and value-creating practice to meet the expectations of both business and society. Originality/value – A profound chasm exists between CR practice and rhetoric. This void is particularly stark when we consider the interface between science and technology and developing economies. This paper explores desirable futures for CR while analyzing what is possible and probable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The aim of the project on which this paper is based is to clarify -- using Kondratieff theory of long-term socio-economic cycles -- how the next (sixth) wave will look like. The focus lies in the socio-political aspect of change. Design/methodology/approach -- The article is a short and partial summary of a major project called "The Sixth Wave". Workshops and surveys have been run in Finland and in Silicon Valley, California. Findings -- The project coordinators have been testing the theory of Kondratieff waves with various methods and have found it to be a convincing way to identify the patterns of change. It really brings in anticipatory power to its users. Research limitations/implications -- There are lots of interesting implications of using K-Wave as a framework to understand next decades. More research regarding the future technologies in the K-Wave context should be undertaken. Practical implications -- The author believes that the K-Wave framework can be also regarded as anticipatory tool for business. The heavy emphasis in the author's K-wave theory on resource productivity as a technology driver for the next wave makes it obvious that all technologies and businesses that aim at performing with greater output with less material or energy input are regarded as winners of their respective schemes in the emerging wave as the demand for these services will rise dramatically. Social implications -- The author hopes the article will help people understand how fundamental the change K-Wave engenders in terms of democracy and trust, and that the article will also provide a more comprehensive view towards the transformation we are experiencing. The author anticipates that the idea of corporate social responsibility will become much more compelling in the sixth wave framework. Originality/value -- The project coordinators have given a whole new interpretation to the Kondratieff theory. They approach the theory with social science framework rather than customary economic framework, and have also tested their model with the project's industrial partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time-consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward-looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad-minded, forward-looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York State. The plan identified solutions that should be effective across a range of possible futures. Illustrating the application of strategic foresight to identify conservation opportunities should provide the impetus for decision makers to explore strategic foresight as a way to support more proactive conservation policy, planning, and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing integration of our biology with technology and the increasing integration of artificial intelligence with the built environment could make a continuum of human consciousness and technology giving birth to a “Conscious-Technology” civilization. Although humanity has made great progress, the avoidance of new long-term threats is not guaranteed and will likely require global collective intelligence systems to help us make the decisions on the scale necessary for future survival and the continued human evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

There are a range of definitions for “collective intelligence” and applications. I define collective intelligence as “an emergent property from synergies among three elements—(1) data/info/knowledge, (2) software/hardware, and (3) experts and others with insight—that continually learns from feedback to produce just-in-time knowledge for better decisions than any of these elements acting alone.” This paper will briefly discuss why collective intelligence is needed, some early approaches to creating collective intelligence, what specifically is needed today, and an approach to constructing a collective intelligence system proposed by The Millennium Project called the Global Futures Intelligence System. This online integrated platform is designed to help support and improve global foresight as well as to provide a common platform for conducting futures research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Contemporary foresight activities are increasingly dominated by commitment to research methods and an ambition to found a sound theory of futures thinking. Arguably, there has been a general failure to examine and explicate the relationship between theory and method. As Poli; Karlsen & Karlsen; Aaltonen; Inayatullah and others argue, there is both a need and a will to develop a substantial foundation of futures studies that not only goes beyond epistemology, but explicitly tries to establish an ontological rationale for futures research as a post-positivist scientific activity. Following along this line, the purpose of this paper is to represent a radical constructivist approach to the theory of latents and level of realities that transcends traditional phenomenology.Design/methodology/approach – The paper also gives a brief outline on how Kant meets Latour and constitutes and reproduces two ontological areas, man and nature and argues in favour of a post-post conception called "universal perspectivism".Findings – It is found that the foresight community and futurists must revert to some basic ontological assumptions about the future, e.g. as a reflection of human imagination or as a projection of today's situation, particularly the reproduction of the construction of an idea of the human being as such, and its opposite – what it is not.Originality/value – The consequences for anticipation activities are tremendous: in forward looking activities we reproduce both the distinction between reality in itself and reality for us, or put differently, between appearances and latent. These are then linked to the differentiation between two basic ontological areas throughout all time modalities, nature and society (man). The link between pasts, presents and futures is getting closer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does not exist. We propose that futures research, a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 years, offers an underused but fruitful set of approaches to address this important challenge. A few futures research methods-notably several forms of scenario analysis-have been applied to environmental issues and problems in recent years. But futurists have developed an array of other useful methods for exploring possible, plausible, and preferable futures, important insights into the nature of change, and perspectives for thinking creatively and deeply about the future. We present an overview of futures research and its potential to enrich environmental planning and policy by offering a cross-fertilization of new ideas and approaches, providing a more complete view of emerging environmental problems, and facilitating the development of strategies to increase adaptive capacity and deal more effectively with surprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For academic librarians seeking to demonstrate the value of their libraries to their parent institutions, it is important to understand not only the current climate. We must also know what will be valued in the future so that we can begin to take appropriate action now. This document presents 26 possible scenarios based on an implications assessment of current trends, which may have an impact on all types of academic and research libraries over the next 15 years. The scenarios represent themes relating to academic culture, demographics, distance education, funding, globalization, infrastructure/facilities, libraries, political climate, publishing industry, societal values, students/learning and technology. They are organized in a “scenario space” visualization tool, reflecting the expert judgment of ACRL members as to their expectations and perceptions about the probability, impact, speed of change and threat/opportunity potential of each scenario. Finally, the study draws out implications for academic libraries. For scenarios which have been identified as high impact with a high probability of occurring, it is incumbent upon library directors and those who set strategic agendas for academic libraries to plan to act now upon these scenarios. This report reinforces the notion that academic libraries are part of a larger ecosystem, and librarians should be consistently scanning the environment to look for signs of the changes that may come. It includes an appendix with a suggested activity to engage library colleagues in stretching your imaginations and considering possible futures. This can build capacity to engage in strategic thinking and planning, supporting librarians in making better decisions now that can address a variety of possible futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An environmental scan project is outlined and discussed using the viable systems model (VSM). A participant/observer perspective applied futures thinking, systems practice, scenario orientated narratives and risk assessment frameworks to an annual corporate planning process involving engagement and communication with senior public sector executives. Focus was given to improving foresight techniques through the innovative use of existing resources and skills. Results included additional work on scenario development, designing a decentralised “Development Directorate” network and evaluating complexity science sense-making techniques to enhance foresight capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Futures research can support decisions concerning innovation and strategy issues. To encourage companies to use the results of futures studies, the futures researcher has to be aware of how those companies (clients) have organised their innovation and strategy processes. It is our position that futures researchers should balance the way they conduct futures research with the way innovation and strategy processes are organised and carried out. For example, in an organisation with a hierarchical way of building a strategy, a 'democratic' and interactive approach to futures research will probably not be appreciated. This makes it interesting and worthwhile to find out what futures research and innovation and strategy have in common, and on which points they relate. This will help futures researchers improve their work and make sure that their work has an impact on decisions concerning innovation and strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Communication studies pay little attention to futures research, while there is a lack of communication knowledge in futures research. This article discusses the function of futures research and ways to embed domain knowledge in predictions. First, it looks at futures research in relation to the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in households in 2010. Second, it incorporates communication knowledge based on the vision of experts. It is interested in the ways in which the contextual factors of the adoption and use of ICT can be taken into account. Scenarios take social changes, political and regulatory trends into account and draw alternative, divergent pictures of a future context within which the adoption, domestication, use and effects of new technologies will take place. Through the use of scenarios different contexts can be described in which the impact of specific technologies can be analysed, making use of the know-how of communication scholars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the practice of corporate foresight within a multinational automotive company. It portrays how the early detection of medium- to long-term developments in the broader business environment, including social and market developments, is integrated into innovation and strategy processes. The objective of the paper is to portray the genesis of corporate foresight, major working areas and benefits for the company. The initial section highlights the driving forces that promoted the establishment of corporate foresight, namely the convergence of strategic policy intelligence with strategic early recognition and futures research. The core section highlights five major fields of foresight practice which encompass strategic issues on different levels: long-term market developments, future customer needs, prospective evaluation of innovations, business processes and organisational change, and scanning and monitoring. The paper concludes with characterising the organisational architecture of a mature corporate foresight group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to a special issue on animal health and climate change is presented wherein the author discusses various articles published within the issue on topics including the interface between infectious disease and human behavior, issues affecting surveillance systems, and an approach to better understand the role and impact of climate change on animal health.

An abstract of the review of the book "The Futures Research Library of Wayne I. Boucher," by Wayne I. Boucher is presented.