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Aim: Given the rapid pace of climate change and its significant impact on species distribution and survival, understanding the dynamics of ecological niches over time becomes imperative. By employing ecological niche models and species distribution models, alongside analyses of historical occurrence records and palaeoclimatic data, we aimed to assess the extent of changes in the niche of Porites astreoides from the Holocene to the present. Specifically, we quantified the amount of: (1) niche stability, (2) niche expansion, (3) niche decline and (4) niche overlap in both the environmental and geographical space. Location: Atlantic Ocean. Taxon: Cnidarian, Scleractinia. Materials and Methods: Through fossil and current records and environmental variables from the same periods, we use two ecological niche modelling approaches (overlap and maximum entropy) to analyse niche dynamics in environmental and geographical space, specifically the degree of expansion, stability and loss of niches over the last ~8000 years. We used a principal component analysis to build the models within two different calibration areas (minimum convex polygon and buffer). Results: Our results were similar, except for the loss of habitat, across the calibration areas used to build the models. The PCA used to build the models accounts for more than 65% of the variation in the data. Most of the environmental niche remained stable with an increase of almost a third and a negligible loss. Models in geographical space showed that most of the suitable area remained stable, but the species expanded its range from the Caribbean to the coast of Brazil. The analysis also showed a high value of niche overlap in environmental and geographical spaces. Main Conclusions: The species studied is one of the corals with the greatest capacity to adapt to new environments and locations, but it also has a high tendency to preserve niche traits. These characteristics helped the species to expand its environmental and geographical niche in a period of relative climatic stability. On the other hand, these same characteristics of niche conservatism can lead the species to population decline and habitat loss, if the speed of adaptation is lower than the rapid climate changes predicted for the middle and end of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although climate‐based hypotheses are widely used to explain large‐scale diversity patterns, they fall short of explaining the spatial variation among taxonomic groups. Integrating food web and metabolic theories into macroecology is a promising step forward, as they allow including explicit taxon‐specific traits that can potentially mediate the relationship between climate and diversity. Our investigation focuses on the role of body size and trophic structure in mediating the influence of contemporary climate and historical climate change on global tetrapods species richness. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to assess the direct effects of contemporary climate and climate instability of species richness and the indirect effects of climate on tetrapod richness mediated by community‐wide species traits. We found that birds and mammals are less sensitive to the direct effect of contemporary climate than amphibians and squamates. Contemporary climate and climate instability favored the species richness of mammals and amphibians. However, for birds and squamates, this link is only associated with contemporary climate. Moreover, we showed that community‐wide traits are correlated with species richness gradients. However, we highlight that this relationship is dependent upon the specific traits and taxonomic groups. Specifically, bird communities with smaller bodies and bottom‐heavy structures support higher species richness. Squamates also tend to be more diverse in communities with prevalence of smaller bodies, while mammals are correlated with top‐heavy structures. Moreover, we showed that higher contemporary climate and climate instability reduce the species richness of birds and mammals through community‐wide traits and indirectly increase squamate species richness. We also showed that body size and trophic structure are driving a global asymmetric response of tetrapod diversity to climate effects, which highlights the limitation to use the "typical" climate‐based hypotheses. Furthermore, by combining multiple theories, our research contributes to a more realistic and mechanistic understanding of diversity patterns across taxonomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If the growing needs of humans are to be met, food production must increase; however, increasing food production will further compromise biodiversity. Can this seemingly irreconcilable conflict be mitigated? The solutions proposed so far include reducing food waste and closing yield gaps. Here, we investigate an alternative approach to reducing the impact of agricultural expansion on biodiversity without compromising food production by combining two strategies: taking agricultural production into consideration to solve the biodiversity crisis and promoting the definition of protected areas on the basis of a globalized blueprint. We found that combining these strategies could result in a 78% reduction in the agricultural opportunity costs incurred in the implementation of protected areas. Furthermore, a 30% increase in biodiversity protection could be achieved. We show that the movement toward global governance of natural resources would lead to reduced conflict between the needs of food production and biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Highlights: [•] We defined global spatial priorities for conservation of carnivores. [•] We found a spatial conservation conflict between agricultural expansion and carnivore conservation. [•] This conflict is alleviated if spatial conservation prioritization process includes agricultural expansion data. [•] Accounting for agricultural expansion in spatial prioritization process resulted in a lower representation of carnivores. [•] To be more effective, different conservation actions should be implemented regarding agricultural expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial variation in biological traits reflects evolutionary and biogeographical processes of the history of clades, and patterns of body size and range size can be suitable to recover such processes. In the present study, we test for latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in both body and range sizes in an entire family of tropical anurans, Centrolenidae. We partition the species latitudinal, and altitudinal distributions into an indirect measure of tolerance, and then test its effect on the body size gradient. We use an assemblage-based approach to correlate the traits with altitudinal and latitudinal axes, taking into account both phylogenetic and spatial autocorrelation in data. Centrolenids lack any gradient in range size but show a positive cline of both body size and adaptive body enlargement with altitude. This pattern is also positively correlated with an altitudinal gradient of cold tolerance, thus lending support to the heat balance hypothesis as an explanation of the body size cline. By using an entire Neotropical clade of anurans, we add further support for Bergmann's rule in ectotherms, warn for a likely effect of environmental steepness in fashioning the gradient, and offer evidence for an historical scenario (the Oligocene- Eocene Andean uplift) as its likely trigger. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species richness and range size are key features of biogeographic and macroecological analyses, which can yield a first assessment tool to define conservation priorities. Here we combined both features in a simultaneous analysis, based on range-diversity plots, to identify sets of rich-rare (high species richness with restricted ranges) and poor-rare cells (low species richness with restricted ranges). We applied this analysis to the anurans of South America and evaluated the representation of those sets of cells within the protected area system. South American anurans showed high species richness in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and East Tropical Andes, while regions harboring most of the rare species were concentrated in the Andes and Atlantic Coast from North-Eastern Brazil to River Plate. Based on such patterns, we identified as rich-rare cells the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Tropical Andes and as poor-rare cells the southern part of Andes and Uruguay. A low fraction of both sets of cells was represented within the protected area system. We show that a simultaneous consideration of species richness and rarity provides a rapid assessment of large-scale biodiversity patterns and may contribute to the definition of conservation priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim We tested whether the geographic variation in the proportion of beta diversity attributed to nestedness or turnover components was explained by the effect of past glaciation events. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that most of the beta diversity in regions retaining ice until recent periods was due to nestedness. Additionally, we tested whether the variation was influenced by thermal tolerance and the dispersal ability of species. Location This study analysed data from the New World. Methods We used presence/absence data for amphibians, birds and mammals of the New World. We calculated beta diversity among each 1°× 1° cell and the adjacent cells using the Sorensen dissimilarity index that expresses the total beta diversity. Furthermore, we partitioned it into turnover and nestedness components. The relative importance of the two latter components was expressed as the proportion of total beta diversity explained by nestedness (βratio). We calculated the correlation between βratio and the time each cell was free of ice since the last glaciation (cell age). To control the effects of spatial autocorrelation, we calculated geographically effective degrees of freedom. Results The proportion of beta diversity attributed to nestedness was negatively correlated with cell age. Moreover, this effect was stronger for amphibians than mammals, and stronger for mammals than birds. Main conclusions Our results are in accordance with the hypothesis that the nestedness component of beta diversity is more important in areas affected by glaciations until recent time. The beta diversity in high latitudes is the result of past extinctions and recent recolonization, which result in higher levels of nestedness. This process is more evident for vertebrates with lower dispersal ability and lower temperature tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Envenomation caused by Lonomia obliqua caterpillars is an increasing problem in Southern Brazil. The clinical profile is characterized by a profound hemorrhagic disorder. In the present study, we describe the characterization of a fibrin(ogen)olytic factor (lonofibrase) isolated from a venomous secretion of the caterpillars. The crude extract showed a dose-dependent inhibitory effect in the rate of thrombin-induced fibrinogen clotting and produced fragmentation of fibrinogen. Isolation of the fibrin(ogen)olytic enzyme was achieved by combining ion exchange chromatography followed by gel filtration in a fast protein liquid chromatography (FPLC) system. A single 35-kDa band was identified and the isolated enzyme named lonofibrase. Lonofibrase rapidly degrades Aα and Bβ chains of fibrinogen, also being able to cleave fibrin in a distinct way from that observed with plasmin. The presence of lonofibrase with both fibrinogenolytic and fibrinolytic activities in L. obliqua secretion is coherent with the severe hemorrhagic clinical profile resulting from envenomation caused by these insects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Biodiversity founds ecosystem services which guarantee human survival and wellbeing. Halt biodiversity loss requires efficient conservation actions, and the establishment of protected areas is a crucial strategy. However, their planning is still hindered by shortfalls of data, particularly in neglected regions such as Caatinga, a Brazilian biome dominated by tropical dry forests. We used global range maps of tetrapods and local environmental information to mapping species' Area of Habitat (AOH) and support conservation assessment and spatial prioritization in Caatinga. We quantified biodiversity's representation in current protected areas (PAs) and indigenous lands (ILs), as well in priority areas (PRIs) proposed by government for future conservation. Following international targets for 2020 and 2030, we presented a prioritization solution to protect 17% and 30% of biome. PAs and ILs, covering 9.1% of the Caatinga, represent on average 9.8% of species' AOH, with 37 gap species. By protecting 15.3–32.0% of biome, PRIs networks might increase the current mean to 15.2%–37.5% of species' AOH, still resulting in gap species. Our solution represents on average 26.8–42.5% of species' AOH, with no gap species, and effectively represent more than 91% of tetrapods at higher risk. Opportunity costs displaced priorities to areas less affected by human activities, mainly reducing threatened species' representation. Optimized use of available data, including global maps refined by local information, help to support efficient conservation planning. Once that improve the conservation benefits becomes urgent nowadays, when science-based initiatives are under attack, our approach might contribute to other vulnerable and poorly known biomes. Unlabelled Image • Conservation planning in Caatinga might be improved by mapping species' area of habitat (AOH) from global database. • Spatial prioritization based on AOH support an optimal expansion of protected areas (PAs). • Species at higher risk are the most protected based on suitable habitat's representation in PAs. • Opportunity costs might reduce threatened species' representation in Caatinga. • Our methodological framework can be extended to other vulnerable and poorly known regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several evolutionary processes seem to have influenced the Atlantic Forest (AF) biogeographic history, as suggested by phylogeographic studies that have shown a multitude of patterns. Here, we use approximate Bayesian computation to test alternative historical hypotheses to investigate the phylogeographic pattern, historical demography, and palaeodistribution of the Grey-hooded Flycatcher Mionectes rufiventris, an endemic AF bird, distributed mainly in southern areas of the biome. Our goal was to integrate molecular and ecological data to test diversification hypotheses available for the AF. Our investigation revealed two mitochondrial phylogroups, geographically structured around the Doce River. Coalescence analyses revealed that these groups shared a common ancestor in the Late Pleistocene, between 200,000 and 300,000 years ago, and that divergence was probably associated with climatic fluctuations during this period. Demographic analyses suggested recent demographic expansion in both groups. Ecological niche modelling suggested larger ranges during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than in the present, not in agreement with the genetic pattern recovered. We simulated alternative historical models to test these competing scenarios. Our findings support the existence of small populations during the LGM which expanded afterwards from putative refuges. Thus, these results suggest that the Pleistocene climate shaped patterns of diversification and demographic history of this species in accordance with the classical forest refuge hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main objectives of ecology is to understand how species abundance varies in space. Throughout the distribution of a species, a population is expected to increase its abundance where environmental conditions are most suitable for survival and reproduction. It is possible to evaluate environmental suitability and species distribution with ecological niche modelling regarding predictors of interest.Suitability measures derived from ecological niche models have primarily been used as proxies for abundance, mainly for conservation purposes. However, the suitability–abundance pattern is far from general, with several local biotic and abiotic factors and demographic causes that may interfere with this relationship. We evaluated the relationship between suitability and the local abundance of four Eulaema (Apidae: Euglossini) species.We modelled the ecological niche of the species and evaluated its relationship to local abundance values across the Amazon Forest. Given our results, there was no significant relationship between climate suitability and abundance. We used quantile regression to examine whether climate suitability limited species abundance, which confirmed our result that climate suitability model estimates are not related to the abundance of Eulaema species. Our results suggest that the relationship between climatic suitability and abundance cannot be generalised to the orchid bee species in Amazon Forest, and, probably, the abundance of these species reflects variables on smaller spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that Primates, represented by 521 species, are distributed across 91 countries primarily in the Neotropic, Afrotropic, and Indo-Malayan realms. Primates inhabit a wide range of habitats and play critical roles in sustaining healthy ecosystems that benefit human and nonhuman communities. Approximately 68% of primate species are threatened with extinction because of global pressures to convert their habitats for agricultural production.

Geographic gradients in the species richness of non-human primates have traditionally been attributed to the variation in forest productivity (related to precipitation levels), although an all-inclusive, global-scale analysis has never been conducted., We perform a more comprehensive test on the role of precipitation and biomass production and propose an alternative hypothesis - the variation in vertical structure of forest habitats as measured by forest canopy height - in determining primate species richness on a global scale., Considering the potential causal relationships among precipitation, productivity and forest structure, we arranged these variables within a path framework to assess their direct and indirect associations with the pattern of primate species richness using structural equation modelling. The analysis also accounted for the influence of spatial autocorrelation in the relationships and assessed possible historical differences among biogeographical regions., The path coefficients indicate that forest canopy height (used as a proxy for vertical forest structure) is a better predictor of primate species richness than either precipitation or productivity on both global and continental scales. The only exception was Asia, where precipitation prevailed, albeit independently from productivity or forest structure. The influence of spatially structured processes varied markedly among biogeographical regions., Our results challenge the traditional rainfall-based viewpoint in favour of forest distribution and structure as primary drivers of primate species richness, which aggregate potential effects from both climatic factors and habitat complexity. These findings may support predictions of the impact of forest removal on primate species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size and shape fundamentally determine organismal energy requirements by modulating heat and mass exchange with the environment and the costs of locomotion, thermoregulation, and maintenance. Ecologists have long used the physical linkage between morphology and energy balance to explain why the body size and shape of many organisms vary across climatic gradients, e.g., why larger endotherms are more common in colder regions. However, few modeling exercises have aimed at investigating this link from first principles. Body size evolution in bats contrasts with the patterns observed in other endotherms, probably because physical constraints on flight limit morphological adaptations. Here, we develop a biophysical model based on heat transfer and aerodynamic principles to investigate energy constraints on morphological evolution in bats. Our biophysical model predicts that the energy costs of thermoregulation and flight, respectively, impose upper and lower limits on the relationship of wing surface area to body mass (S-MR), giving rise to an optimal S-MR at which both energy costs are minimized. A comparative analysis of 278 species of bats supports the model's prediction that S-MR evolves toward an optimal shape and that the strength of selection is higher among species experiencing greater energy demands for thermoregulation in cold climates. Our study suggests that energy costs modulate the mode of morphological evolution in bats--hence shedding light on a long-standing debate over bats' conformity to ecogeographical patterns observed in other mammals--and offers a procedure for investigating complex macroecological patterns from first principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides information on the role of protected areas (PAs) and indigenous lands in preventing the destruction of natural vegetation in Brazil over a 34-year period. The study reveals that PAs have been effective in reducing vegetation destruction, with the odds of destruction inside PAs being four times lower than in unprotected areas.

Aim: The Island Rule—that is, the tendency for body size to decrease in large mammals and increase in small mammals on islands has been commonly evaluated through macroecological or macroevolutionary, pattern‐orientated approaches, which generally fail to model the microevolutionary processes driving either dwarfing or gigantism. Here, we seek to identify which microevolutionary process could have driven extreme insular dwarfism in the extinct dwarf red deer population on the island of Jersey. Location: Jersey, UK (Channel Islands). Taxon: Red deer (Cervus elaphus). Methods: We applied an individual‐based quantitative genetics model parameterized with red deer life‐history data to study the evolution of dwarfism in Jersey's deer, considering variations in island area and isolation through time due to sea level changes. Results: The body size of red deer on Jersey decreased fast early on, due to phenotypic plasticity, then kept decreasing almost linearly over time down to the actual body size of the Jersey deer (36 kg on average). Only 1% of 10,000 replicates failed to reach that size in our simulations. The distribution of time to adaptation in these simulations was right skewed, with a median of 395 generations (equivalent to roughly 4 kyr), with complete dwarfism effectively occurring in less than 6 kyr 84.6% of times. About 72% of the variation in the time to adaptation between simulations was collectively explained by higher mutational variance, the number of immigrants from the continent after isolation, available genetic variance, heritability, and phenotypic plasticity. Main Conclusions: The extreme dwarfing of red deer on Jersey is an expected outcome of high mutational variance, high immigration rate, a wide adaptive landscape, low levels of inbreeding, and high phenotypic plasticity (in the early phase of dwarfing), all occurring within a time window of around 6 kyr. Our model reveals how extreme dwarfism is a plausible outcome of common, well‐known evolutionary processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The destruction of natural habitats is causing loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although a "zero deforestation" is targeted, agriculture expansion caused by increasing human population and per capita consumption might boost the destruction of natural habitats in the coming decades. Here, we estimated the current and future extinction crisis in terrestrial ecoregions caused by habitat destruction and related this pattern with the current conservation efforts. We applied an Endemics-Area Relationship to assess vertebrates' potential extinctions in 513 ecoregions based on current land cover data and a future scenario of habitat loss. We compared our predictions to the proportion of the ecoregions' area formally protected, testing the concordance between threat distribution and conservation efforts. Finally, we evaluated how the distribution of threat relates to the biodiversity hotspots delimitation. We found that 2134 endemic vertebrates are currently threatened due to accumulated habitat loss, which is consistent with the assessment of the IUCN Red List. Further, this threat could overtake 4209 species when considering habitat loss projections to 2040. Our findings indicate a high concentration of threat in a few megadiverse localities, some of them outside the biodiversity hotspots. We found little overlap between our predictions of extinction and current protected areas distribution. This study supports current biodiversity crisis diagnoses and the expected recrudescence of Anthropocene defaunation in the future when considering scenarios of further habitat destruction. Our analysis also contributes to the definition of global priorities to prevent further biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Despite longstanding investigation, the gradients of species richness remain unknown for most taxa because of shortfalls in knowledge regarding the quantity and distribution of species. Here, we explore the ability of a geostatistical interpolation model, regression‐kriging, to recover geographical gradients of species richness. We examined the technique with an in silico gradient of species richness and evaluated the effect of different configurations of knowledge shortfalls. We also took the same approach for empirical data with large knowledge gaps, the infraorder Furnariides of suboscine birds. Innovation: Regression‐kriging builds upon two cornerstones of geographical gradients of biodiversity, the spatial autocorrelation of species richness and the conspicuous association of species with environmental factors. With this technique, we recovered a simulated gradient of richness using < 0.01% of sampling sites across the region. The accuracy of the regression‐kriging is higher when input samples are more evenly distributed throughout the geographical space rather than the environmental space of the target region. Moreover, the accuracy of this method is more sensitive to the sufficiency of sampling effort within cells than to the quantity of sampled localities. For Furnariides birds, regression‐kriging provided a geographical gradient of species richness that resembles purported patterns of other groups and illustrated ubiquitous shortfalls of knowledge about bird diversity. Main conclusions: Geostatistical interpolation, such as regression‐kriging, might be a useful tool to overcome shortfalls in knowledge that plague our understanding of geographical gradients of biodiversity, with many applications in ecology, palaeoecology and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals’ extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (ΔRange) and a proxy for abundance (ΔSuitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal’s extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species' responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco‐evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species' geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco‐evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes have profound effects on populations of Neotropical primates, and ongoing climate change is expected to aggravate this scenario. The titi monkeys from eastern Brazil ( Callicebus personatus group) have been particularly affected by this process, with four of the five species now allocated to threatened conservation status categories. Here, we estimate the changes in the distribution of these titi monkeys caused by changes in both climate and land use. We also use demographic-based, functional landscape metrics to assess the magnitude of the change in landscape conditions for the distribution predicted for each species. We built species distribution models ( SDMs) based on maximum entropy for current and future conditions (2070), allowing for different global circulation models and contrasting scenarios of glasshouse gas concentrations. We refined the SDMs using a high-resolution map of habitat remnants. We then calculated habitat availability and connectivity based on home-range size and the dispersal limitations of the individual, in the context of a predicted loss of 10% of forest cover in the future. The landscape configuration is predicted to be degraded for all species, regardless of the climatic settings. This include reductions in the total cover of forest remnants, patch size and functional connectivity. As the landscape configuration should deteriorate severely in the future for all species, the prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co-occurring species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

* Premise of the study: Wild edible plants (WEPs) have an important cultural and economic role in human population worldwide. Human impacts are quickly converting natural habitats in agricultural, cattle ranch, and urbanized lands, putting native species on peril of risk of extinction, including some WEPs. Moreover, global climate changes also can pose another threat to species persistency. Here, we established conservation priorities for the Cerrado, a neotropical region in South America with high levels of plant endemism and vulnerability, aiming to assure long-term persistency of 16 most important WEPs. We evaluated these conservation priorities using a conservation biogeography framework using ecological patterns and process at a biogeographical scale to deal with species conservation features. * Methods: We built ecological niche models for 16 WEPs from Cerrado in the neotropics using climate models for preindustrial, past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future (year 2080) time periods to establish climatically stable areas through time, finding refugias for these WEPs. We used a spatial prioritization algorithm based on the spatial pattern of irreplaceability across the neotropics, aiming to ensure the persistence of at least 25% of range size in climatically stable areas for each WEP, using agricultural models as constraints. * Key results: The Southeast Cerrado was the most biotically stable and irreplaceable region for the WEPs compared with other areas across the neotropics. * Conclusions: Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. However, with expected broad-scale environmental changes likely to produce species range shifts and foster alien species invasions, will existing networks of protected areas be able to guarantee the long-term persistence of the species they should protect? Here we evaluate the potential impact of climate change in driving the invasive American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus into reserves currently established in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. We produced potential geographic distribution maps both for current time and for 2050 using eight species distribution modeling methods and three different climate models to evaluate model uncertainty. We then overlaid a consensus prediction of species distribution to the existing network of protected areas. We show that, under climate change, L. catesbeianus is likely to colonize reserves more efficiently than today, putting in jeopardy native amphibian species thought to be protected in such places. We also suggest some policy recommendations to mitigate such potential impact on the Atlantic Forest native amphibian fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]