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Summary: The objective of this work was to investigate the magnitude, frequency and trends of rainfall erosivity in Basilicata (southern Italy), as an initial step in the study of the consequences of climatic change on soil environments in the central Mediterranean region. First, we derived and calibrated an equation to predict the RUSLE rainfall erosivity (EI30) from daily rainfall, using a continuous 5-year series of 549 daily rainfall events, recorded in 20-min time intervals at five stations located across the region. After validation, this rainfall erosivity model was then applied to the long term daily rainfall series of 53 gauging stations, distributed over the Basilicata territory, yielding time series of annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity for the period 1951–2000. The Mann–Kendall non-parametric test statistic was used to detect time trends in the rainfall erosivity time series. Results indicated that more than half of the stations did not show a statistical trend. Four stations showed an upward trend and 12 a downward trend in seasonal and annual erosivity, the trends becoming stronger during the last 30-year normal (1971–2000), when compared to the overall 50-year period. This analysis of rainfall erosion index values and its regional variability clearly showed the strong local spatial and temporal variation of erosivity in this Mediterranean region. The results further indicated that the decrease in annual rainfall depths observed in a number of locations is compensated by an increase in single storm rainfall intensity to produce near stationary long term values of annual rainfall erosivity in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper reports the results of the analysis of the 14 longest precipitation instrumental series, covering the last 300 years, that have been recovered in six subareas of the Western Mediterranean basin, i.e., Portugal, Northern and Southern Spain, Southern France, Northern and Southern Italy. This study extends back by one century our knowledge about the instrumental precipitation over the Western Mediterranean, and by two centuries in some specific subareas. All the time series show repeated swings. No specific trends have been found over the whole period, except in a few cases, but with modest time changes and sometimes having opposite tendency. The same can be said for the most recent decades although with some more marked departures from the average. The correlation between the various Mediterranean subareas is generally not significant, or almost uncorrelated. The Wavelet Spectral Analysis applied to the precipitation identifies only a minor 56-year cycle in autumn, i.e., the same return period that has been found in literature for the Sea Surface Temperature over North Atlantic. A comparison with a gridded dataset reconstruction based on mixed multiproxy and instrumental observations, shows that the grid reconstruction is in good agreement with the observed data for the period after 1900, less for the previous period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses the newly produced temperature and precipitation series from instrumental observations in the Western Mediterranean (WM) area, dating back to 1654. The two series had a continuous swing and unstable coupling passing from correlation to anti-correlation. Only after 1950 are they permanently anti-correlated with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. It is not clear how long this coupling will persist. The analysis of the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the WM temperature anomalies and their trends shows a certain variability from 1850 to 1950; later a strong coupling between NH and WM. Results suggest that the WM climate is approaching a turning point that might locally oppose the adverse effects of Global Warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In landslide-prone areas the magnitude of events is related to recurring rainfall intensity. In a large sector of the Sannio Apennines (Southern Italy), predictive mapping of recurrent shallow landslides was undertaken by combining deterministic and probabilistic predictive approaches. This, with the aim to minimize the negative influence of the uniform distribution of the initial water table depth in steady condition that usually influence the theoretical instability resulting from the application of methods for large-scale estimation. The deterministic approach was performed by means of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability model to obtain triggering maps in multi-temporal transient pore-water pressures. The optimized physical modeling was validated by back-analysis on large-magnitude landslide events which occurred in 2003 by means of the introduction of two cross-mapping correlation indexes. Subsequently, different predictive scenarios were proposed for different probabilistic return periods of the rainstorm events. The output data permitted the definition of a linear log regression curve to estimate the theoretical instability of the study area. This curve is defined as a function of cumulative precipitation, duration and return periods of the possible rainfall events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reports the main results of the EU project Millennium in the Mediterranean area over the last 500 years. It analyses a long series of temperature from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece. The series are obtained by combining indices from documentary sources from AD 1500 to the onset of regular instrumental observations. There is an ongoing discussion regarding the proper way of combining documentary and instrumental data and how to translate accurately the conventional indices from − 3 to + 3 into modern units, i.e. degree Celsius. This paper produces for the first time a number of early instrumental observations, in some cases (i.e. Italy and France) covering 350 years, including thereby the earliest regular observations after the invention of the thermometer. These Mediterranean data show that anomalous temperatures usually had only a locally limited effect, while only few extreme events had a widespread impact over the whole region, such as the summer of 2003. During the period from 1850 to the present day, the Mediterranean temperature anomaly was close to the Northern Hemisphere in spring and summer, while it was warmer in autumn and winter. Compared with the long-term instrumental records (i.e. 1655 onwards), the recent warming has not exceeded the natural past variability characterized by heating–cooling cycles with no significant long-term trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]