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Inverse optimization—determining parameters of an optimization problem that render a given solution optimal—has received increasing attention in recent years. Although significant inverse optimization literature exists for convex optimization problems, there have been few advances for discrete problems, despite the ubiquity of applications that fundamentally rely on discrete decision making. In this paper, we present a new set of theoretical insights and algorithms for the general class of inverse mixed integer linear optimization problems. Specifically, a general characterization of optimality conditions is established and leveraged to design new cutting plane solution algorithms. Through an extensive set of computational experiments, we show that our methods provide substantial improvements over existing methods in solving the largest and most difficult instances to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the stability of robust optimization (RO) problems with respect to perturbations in their uncertainty sets. In particular, we focus on robust linear optimization problems, including those with an infinite number of constraints, and consider uncertainty in both the cost function and constraints. We prove Lipschitz continuity of the optimal value and ε-approximate optimal solution set with respect to the Hausdorff distance between uncertainty sets. The Lipschitz constant can be calculated from the problem data. In addition, we prove closedness and upper semicontinuity for the optimal solution set with respect to the uncertainty set. In order to prove these results, we develop a novel transformation that maps RO problems to linear semi-infinite optimization (LSIO) problems in such a way that the distance between uncertainty sets of two RO problems correspond to a measure of distance between their equivalent LSIO problems. Using this isometry we leverage LSIO and variational analysis stability results to obtain stability results for RO problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider adaptive robust methods for lung cancer that are also dose-reactive, wherein the treatment is modified after each treatment session to account for the dose delivered in prior treatment sessions. Such methods are of interest because they potentially allow for errors in the delivered dose to be corrected as the treatment progresses, thereby ensuring that the tumor receives a sufficient dose at the end of the treatment. We show through a computational study with real lung cancer patient data that while dose reaction is beneficial with respect to the final dose distribution, it may lead to exaggerated daily underdose and overdose relative to non-reactive methods that grows as the treatment progresses. However, by combining dose reaction with a mechanism for updating an estimate of the uncertainty, the magnitude of this growth can be mitigated substantially. The key finding of this paper is that reacting to dose errors – an adaptation strategy that is both simple and intuitively appealing – may backfire and lead to treatments that are clinically unacceptable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To develop mathematical models to predict the evolution of tumor geometry in cervical cancer undergoing radiation therapy. Methods: The authors develop two mathematical models to estimate tumor geometry change: a Markov model and an isomorphic shrinkage model. The Markov model describes tumor evolution by investigating the change in state (either tumor or nontumor) of voxels on the tumor surface. It assumes that the evolution follows a Markov process. Transition probabilities are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation and depend on the states of neighboring voxels. The isomorphic shrinkage model describes tumor shrinkage or growth in terms of layers of voxels on the tumor surface, instead of modeling individual voxels. The two proposed models were applied to data from 29 cervical cancer patients treated at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre and then compared to a constant volume approach. Model performance was measured using sensitivity and specificity. Results: The Markov model outperformed both the isomorphic shrinkage and constant volume models in terms of the trade-off between sensitivity (target coverage) and specificity (normal tissue sparing). Generally, the Markov model achieved a few percentage points in improvement in either sensitivity or specificity compared to the other models. The isomorphic shrinkage model was comparable to the Markov approach under certain parameter settings. Convex tumor shapes were easier to predict. Conclusions: By modeling tumor geometry change at the voxel level using a probabilistic model, improvements in target coverage and normal tissue sparing are possible. Our Markov model is flexible and has tunable parameters to adjust model performance to meet a range of criteria. Such a model may support the development of an adaptive paradigm for radiation therapy of cervical cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background-Geospatial methods using mathematical optimization to identify clusters of cardiac arrests and prioritize public locations for defibrillator deployment have not been studied. Our objective was to develop such a method and test its performance against a population-guided approach. Methods and Results-All public location cardiac arrests in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, from December 16, 2005, to July 15, 2010, and all automated external defibrillator (AED) locations registered with Toronto Emergency Medical Services as of September 2009 were plotted geographically. Current AED coverage was quantified by determining the number of cardiac arrests occurring within 100 m of a registered AED. Clusters of cardiac arrests without a registered AED within 100 m were identified. With the use of mathematical optimization techniques, cardiac arrest coverage improvements were computed and shown to be superior to results from a population-guided deployment method. There were 1310 eligible public location cardiac arrests and 1669 registered AEDs. Of the eligible cardiac arrests, 304 were within 100 m of at least 1 registered AED (23% coverage). The average distance from a cardiac arrest to the closest AED was 281 m. With AEDs deployed in the top 30 locations, an additional 112 historical cardiac arrests would be covered (32% total coverage), and the average distance to the closest AED would be 262 m. Conclusions-Geographic clusters of cardiac arrests can be easily identified and prioritized with the use of mathematical modeling. Optimized AED deployment can increase cardiac arrest coverage and decrease the distance to the closest AED. Mathematical modeling can augment public AED deployment programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) allows for the design of customized, highly conformal treatments for cancer patients. Creating IMRT treatment plans, however, is a mathematically complex process, which is often tackled in multiple, simpler stages. This sequential approach typically separates radiation dose requirements from mechanical deliverability considerations, which may result in suboptimal treatment quality. For patient health to be considered paramount, holistic models must address these plan elements concurrently, eliminating quality loss between stages. This combined direct aperture optimization (DAO) approach is rarely paired with uncertainty mitigation techniques, such as robust optimization, because of the inherent complexity of both parts. This paper outlines a robust DAO (RDAO) model and discusses novel methodologies for efficiently integrating salient constraints. Because the highly complex RDAO model is difficult to solve, an original candidate plan generation (CPG) heuristic is proposed. The CPG produces rapid, high-quality, feasible plans, which are immediately clinically viable and can also be used to generate a feasible incumbent solution for warm-starting the RDAO model. Computational results obtained using clinical patient data sets with motion uncertainty show the benefit of incorporating the CPG, in terms of both the first incumbent solution and final output plan quality. Summary of Contribution: This paper describes the derivation, implementation, and solution of a large-scale robust direct aperture optimization model for the problem of intensity-modulated radiation therapy planning for cancer treatment. The contribution to operations research lies in the design of a novel mixed-integer programming model that describes all salient mechanical and clinical deliverability requirements for modern delivery equipment. Because of the large-scale nature of the resulting model, a novel tractable heuristic for generating high-quality, feasible treatment plans, as well as warm starts for the full model, is proposed and demonstrated on five clinical patient data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on waste in health care spending in the U.S. have reached a threshold of one trillion dollars equivalent to the gross domestic product of the 17th largest economy in the world. Topics inlcude the major contributors to wasteful spending span failures of care delivery, and redundancies, determining the factors that drive wasteful spending is a complex problem, and the decisions made by health authorities and legislators at the regional or national systems-level.

Background: Disability-related considerations have largely been absent from the COVID-19 response, despite evidence that people with disabilities are at elevated risk for acquiring COVID-19. We evaluated clinical outcomes in patients who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with a disability compared with patients without a disability. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included adults with COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital and discharged between Jan. 1, 2020, and Nov. 30, 2020, at 7 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. We compared in-hospital death, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), hospital length of stay and unplanned 30-day readmission among patients with and without a physical disability, hearing or vision impairment, traumatic brain injury, or intellectual or developmental disability, overall and stratified by age (= 64 and = 65 yr) using multivariable regression, controlling for sex, residence in a long-term care facility and comorbidity. Results: Among 1279 admissions to hospital for COVID-19, 22.3% had a disability. We found that patients with a disability were more likely to die than those without a disability (28.1% v. 17.6%), had longer hospital stays (median 13.9 v. 7.8 d) and more readmissions (17.6% v. 7.9%), but had lower ICU admission rates (22.5% v. 28.3%). After adjustment, there were no statistically significant differences between those with and without disabilities for in-hospital death or admission to ICU. After adjustment, patients with a disability had longer hospital stays (rate ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.56) and greater risk of readmission (relative risk 1.77, 95% CI 1.14-2.75). In age-stratified analyses, we observed longer hospital stays among patients with a disability than in those without, in both younger and older subgroups; readmission risk was driven by younger patients with a disability. Interpretation: Patients with a disability who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 had longer stays and elevated readmission risk than those without disabilities. Disability-related needs should be addressed to support these patients in hospital and after discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Current methods for Gamma Knife (GK) treatment planning utilizes either manual forward planning, where planners manually place shots in a tumor to achieve a desired dose distribution, or inverse planning, whereby the dose delivered to a tumor is optimized for multiple objectives based on established metrics. For other treatment modalities like IMRT and VMAT, there has been a recent push to develop knowledge‐based planning (KBP) pipelines to address the limitations presented by forward and inverse planning. However, no complete KBP pipeline has been created for GK. Purpose: To develop a novel (KBP) pipeline, using inverse optimization (IO) with 3D dose predictions for GK. Methods: Data were obtained for 349 patients from Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre. A 3D dose prediction model was trained using 322 patients, based on a previously published deep learning methodology, and dose predictions were generated for the remaining 27 out‐of‐sample patients. A generalized IO model was developed to learn objective function weights from dose predictions. These weights were then used in an inverse planning model to generate deliverable treatment plans. A dose mimicking (DM) model was also implemented for comparison. The quality of the resulting plans was compared to their clinical counterparts using standard GK quality metrics. The performance of the models was also characterized with respect to the dose predictions. Results: Across all quality metrics, plans generated using the IO pipeline performed at least as well as or better than the respective clinical plans. The average conformity and gradient indices of IO plans was 0.737 ±$\pm$ 0.158 and 3.356 ±$\pm$ 1.030 respectively, compared to 0.713 ±$\pm$ 0.124 and 3.452 ±$\pm$ 1.123 for the clinical plans. IO plans also performed better than DM plans for five of the six quality metrics. Plans generated using IO also have average treatment times comparable to that of clinical plans. With regards to the dose predictions, predictions with higher conformity tend to result in higher quality KBP plans. Conclusions: Plans resulting from an IO KBP pipeline are, on average, of equal or superior quality compared to those obtained through manual planning. The results demonstrate the potential for the use of KBP to generate GK treatment with minimal human intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lung- and diaphragm-protective (LDP) ventilation may prevent diaphragm atrophy and patient self-inflicted lung injury in acute respiratory failure, but feasibility is uncertain. The objectives of this study were to estimate the proportion of patients achieving LDP targets in different modes of ventilation, and to identify predictors of need for extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal (ECCO2R) to achieve LDP targets. Methods: An in silico clinical trial was conducted using a previously published mathematical model of patient–ventilator interaction in a simulated patient population (n = 5000) with clinically relevant physiological characteristics. Ventilation and sedation were titrated according to a pre-defined algorithm in pressure support ventilation (PSV) and proportional assist ventilation (PAV+) modes, with or without adjunctive ECCO2R, and using ECCO2R alone (without ventilation or sedation). Random forest modelling was employed to identify patient-level factors associated with achieving targets. Results: After titration, the proportion of patients achieving targets was lower in PAV+ vs. PSV (37% vs. 43%, odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.73–0.85). Adjunctive ECCO2R substantially increased the probability of achieving targets in both PSV and PAV+ (85% vs. 84%). ECCO2R alone without ventilation or sedation achieved LDP targets in 9%. The main determinants of success without ECCO2R were lung compliance, ventilatory ratio, and strong ion difference. In silico trial results corresponded closely with the results obtained in a clinical trial of the LDP titration algorithm (n = 30). Conclusions: In this in silico trial, many patients required ECCO2R in combination with mechanical ventilation and sedation to achieve LDP targets. ECCO2R increased the probability of achieving LDP targets in patients with intermediate degrees of derangement in elastance and ventilatory ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With large volumes of longitudinal data in electronic medical records from diverse patients, primary care is primed for disruption by artificial intelligence (AI) technology. With AI applications in primary care still at an early stage in Canada and most countries, there is a unique opportunity to engage key stakeholders in exploring how AI would be used and what implementation would look like. Objective: To identify the barriers that patients, providers, and health leaders perceive in relation to implementing AI in primary care and strategies to overcome them. Design: 12 virtual deliberative dialogues. Dialogue data were thematically analyzed using a combination of rapid ethnographic assessment and interpretive description techniques. Setting: Virtual sessions. Participants: Participants from eight provinces in Canada, including 22 primary care service users, 21 interprofessional providers, and 5 health system leaders Results: The barriers that emerged from the deliberative dialogue sessions were grouped into four themes: (1) system and data readiness, (2) the potential for bias and inequity, (3) the regulation of AI and big data, and (4) the importance of people as technology enablers. Strategies to overcome the barriers in each of these themes were highlighted, where participatory co-design and iterative implementation were voiced most strongly by participants. Limitations: Only five health system leaders were included in the study and no self-identifying Indigenous people. This is a limitation as both groups may have provided unique perspectives to the study objective. Conclusions: These findings provide insight into the barriers and facilitators associated with implementing AI in primary care settings from different perspectives. This will be vital as decisions regarding the future of AI in this space is shaped. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In left-sided tangential breast intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), the heart may enter the radiation field and receive excessive radiation while the patient is breathing. The patient's breathing pattern is often irregular and unpredictable. We verify the clinical applicability of a heart-sparing robust optimization approach for breast IMRT. We compare robust optimized plans with clinical plans at free-breathing and clinical plans at deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) using active breathing control (ABC). Methods: Eight patients were included in the study with each patient simulated using 4D-CT. The 4D-CT image acquisition generated ten breathing phase datasets. An average scan was constructed using all the phase datasets. Two of the eight patients were also imaged at breath-hold using ABC. The 4D-CT datasets were used to calculate the accumulated dose for robust optimized and clinical plans based on deformable registration. We generated a set of simulated breathing probability mass functions, which represent the fraction of time patients spend in different breathing phases. The robust optimization method was applied to each patient using a set of dose-influence matrices extracted from the 4D-CT data and a model of the breathing motion uncertainty. The goal of the optimization models was to minimize the dose to the heart while ensuring dose constraints on the target were achieved under breathing motion uncertainty. Results: Robust optimized plans were improved or equivalent to the clinical plans in terms of heart sparing for all patients studied. The robust method reduced the accumulated heart dose (D10cc) by up to 801 cGy compared to the clinical method while also improving the coverage of the accumulated whole breast target volume. On average, the robust method reduced the heart dose (D10cc) by 364 cGy and improved the optBreast dose (D99%) by 477 cGy. In addition, the robust method had smaller deviations from the planned dose to the accumulated dose. The deviation of the accumulated dose from the planned dose for the optBreast (D99%) was 12 cGy for robust versus 445 cGy for clinical. The deviation for the heart (D10cc) was 41 cGy for robust and 320 cGy for clinical. Conclusions: The robust optimization approach can reduce heart dose compared to the clinical method at free-breathing and can potentially reduce the need for breath-hold techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Planning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or ‘demand’ for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability. Methods: A discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons. Findings: Oxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality. Conclusion: A theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of resource and technology planning in developing country health systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internal organ motion during the course of radiation therapy of cancer affects the distribution of the delivered dose and, generally, reduces its conformality to the targeted volume. Previously proposed approaches aimed at mitigating the effect of internal motion in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) included expansion of the target margins, motion-correlated delivery (e.g., respiratory gating, tumor tracking), and adaptive treatment plan optimization employing a probabilistic description of motion. We describe and test the tumor trailing strategy, which utilizes the synergy of motion-adaptive treatment planning and delivery methods. We regard the (rigid) target motion as a superposition of a relatively fast cyclic component (e.g., respiratory) and slow aperiodic trends (e.g., the drift of exhalation baseline). In the trailing approach, these two components of motion are decoupled and dealt with separately. Real-time motion monitoring is employed to identify the “slow” shifts, which are then corrected by applying setup adjustments. The delivery does not track the target position exactly, but trails the systematic trend due to the delay between the time a shift occurs, is reliably detected, and, subsequently, corrected. The “fast” cyclic motion is accounted for with a robust motion-adaptive treatment planning, which allows for variability in motion parameters (e.g., mean and extrema of the tidal volume, variable period of respiration, and expiratory duration). Motion-surrogate data from gated IMRT treatments were used to provide probability distribution data for motion-adaptive planning and to test algorithms that identified systematic trends in the character of motion. Sample IMRT fields were delivered on a clinical linear accelerator to a programmable moving phantom. Dose measurements were performed with a commercial two-dimensional ion-chamber array. The results indicate that by reducing intrafractional motion variability, the trailing strategy enhances relevance and applicability of motion-adaptive planning methods, and improves conformality of the delivered dose to the target in the presence of irregular motion. Trailing strategy can be applied to respiratory-gated treatments, in which the correction for the slow motion can increase the duty cycle, while robust probabilistic planning can improve management of the residual motion within the gate window. Similarly, trailing may improve the dose conformality in treatment of patients who exhibit detectable target motion of low amplitude, which is considered insufficient to provide a clinical indication for the use of respiratory-gated treatment (e.g., peak-to-peak motion of less than 10 mm). The mechanical limitations of implementing tumor trailing are less rigorous than those of real-time tracking, and the same technology could be used for both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To advance fair and consistent comparisons of dose prediction methods for knowledge‐based planning (KBP) in radiation therapy research. Methods: We hosted OpenKBP, a 2020 AAPM Grand Challenge, and challenged participants to develop the best method for predicting the dose of contoured computed tomography (CT) images. The models were evaluated according to two separate scores: (a) dose score, which evaluates the full three‐dimensional (3D) dose distributions, and (b) dose‐volume histogram (DVH) score, which evaluates a set DVH metrics. We used these scores to quantify the quality of the models based on their out‐of‐sample predictions. To develop and test their models, participants were given the data of 340 patients who were treated for head‐and‐neck cancer with radiation therapy. The data were partitioned into training (n=200), validation (n=40), and testing (n=100) datasets. All participants performed training and validation with the corresponding datasets during the first (validation) phase of the Challenge. In the second (testing) phase, the participants used their model on the testing data to quantify the out‐of‐sample performance, which was hidden from participants and used to determine the final competition ranking. Participants also responded to a survey to summarize their models. Results: The Challenge attracted 195 participants from 28 countries, and 73 of those participants formed 44 teams in the validation phase, which received a total of 1750 submissions. The testing phase garnered submissions from 28 of those teams, which represents 28 unique prediction methods. On average, over the course of the validation phase, participants improved the dose and DVH scores of their models by a factor of 2.7 and 5.7, respectively. In the testing phase one model achieved the best dose score (2.429) and DVH score (1.478), which were both significantly better than the dose score (2.564) and the DVH score (1.529) that was achieved by the runner‐up models. Lastly, many of the top performing teams reported that they used generalizable techniques (e.g., ensembles) to achieve higher performance than their competition. Conclusion: OpenKBP is the first competition for knowledge‐based planning research. The Challenge helped launch the first platform that enables researchers to compare KBP prediction methods fairly and consistently using a large open‐source dataset and standardized metrics. OpenKBP has also democratized KBP research by making it accessible to everyone, which should help accelerate the progress of KBP research. The OpenKBP datasets are available publicly to help benchmark future KBP research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Donor milk is the standard of care for hospitalized very low birth weight (VLBW) infants when mother's milk is unavailable; however, growth of donor milk-fed infants is frequently suboptimal. Variability in nutrient composition of donated milk complicates the production of a uniform pooled product and, subsequently, the provision of adequate nutrition to promote optimal growth and development of VLBW infants. We reasoned a machine learning approach to construct batches using characteristics of the milk donation might be an effective strategy in reducing the variability in donor milk product composition.Objective: The objective of this study was to identify whether machine learning models can accurately predict donor milk macronutrient content. We focused on predicting fat and protein, given their well-established importance in VLBW infant growth outcomes.Methods: Samples of donor milk, consisting of 272 individual donations and 61 pool samples, were collected from the Rogers Hixon Ontario Human Milk Bank and analyzed for macronutrient content. Four different machine learning models were constructed using independent variable groups associated with donations, donors, and donor-pumping practices. A baseline model was established using lactation stage and infant gestational status. Predictions were made for individual donations and resultant pools.Results: Machine learning models predicted protein of individual donations and pools with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.16 g/dL and 0.10 g/dL, respectively. Individual donation and pooled fat predictions had an MAE of 0.91 g/dL and 0.42 g/dL, respectively. At both the individual donation and pool levels, protein predictions were significantly more accurate than baseline, whereas fat predictions were competitive with baseline.Conclusions: Machine learning models can provide accurate predictions of macronutrient content in donor milk. The macronutrient content of pooled milk had a lower prediction error, reinforcing the value of pooling practices. Future research should examine how macronutrient content predictions can be used to facilitate milk bank pooling strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: Medical device performance and safety databases can be analyzed for patterns and novel opportunities for improving patient safety and/or device design. Objective: The objective of this analysis was to use supervised machine learning to explore patterns in reported adverse events involving cochlear implants. Design: Adverse event reports for the top three CI manufacturers were acquired for the analysis. Four supervised machine learning algorithms were used to predict which adverse event description pattern corresponded with a specific cochlear implant manufacturer and adverse event type. Setting: U.S. government public database. Participants: Adult and pediatric cochlear patients. Exposure: Surgical placement of a cochlear implant. Main Outcome Measure: Classification prediction accuracy (% correct predictions). Results: Most adverse events involved patient injury (n = 16,736), followed by device malfunction (n = 10,760), and death (n = 16). The random forest, linear SVC, naïve Bayes and logistic algorithms were able to predict the specific CI manufacturer based on the adverse event narrative with an average accuracy of 74.8%, 86.0%, 88.5% and 88.6%, respectively. Conclusions & relevance: Using supervised machine learning algorithms, our classification models were able to predict the CI manufacturer and event type with high accuracy based on patterns in adverse event text descriptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to automatically generate radiation therapy plans for oropharynx patients by combining knowledge‐based planning (KBP) predictions with an inverse optimization (IO) pipeline. Methods: We developed two KBP approaches, the bagging query (BQ) method and the generalized principal component analysis‐based (gPCA) method, to predict achievable dose–volume histograms (DVHs). These approaches generalize existing methods by predicting physically feasible organ‐at‐risk (OAR) and target DVHs in sites with multiple targets. Using leave‐one‐out cross validation, we applied both models to a large dataset of 217 oropharynx patients. The predicted DVHs were input into an IO pipeline that generated treatment plans (BQ and gPCA plans) via an intermediate step that estimated objective function weights for an inverse planning model. The KBP predictions were compared to the clinical DVHs for benchmarking. To assess the complete pipeline, we compared the BQ and gPCA plans to both the predictions and clinical plans. To isolate the effect of the KBP predictions, we put clinical DVHs through the IO pipeline to produce clinical inverse optimized (CIO) plans. This approach also allowed us to estimate the complexity of the clinical plans. The BQ and gPCA plans were benchmarked against the CIO plans using DVH differences and clinical planning criteria. Iso‐complexity plans (relative to CIO) were also generated and evaluated. Results: The BQ method tended to predict that less dose is delivered than what was observed in the clinical plans while the gPCA predictions were more similar to clinical DVHs. Both populations of KBP predictions were reproduced with inverse plans to within a median DVH difference of 3 Gy. Clinical planning criteria for OARs were satisfied most frequently by the BQ plans (74.4%), by 6.3% points more than the clinical plans. Meanwhile, target criteria were satisfied most frequently by the gPCA plans (90.2%), and by 21.2% points more than clinical plans. However, once the complexity of the plans was constrained to that of the CIO plans, the performance of the BQ plans degraded significantly. In contrast, the gPCA plans still satisfied more clinical criteria than both the clinical and CIO plans, with the most notable improvement being in target criteria. Conclusion: Our automated pipeline can successfully use DVH predictions to generate high‐quality plans without human intervention. Between the two KBP methods, gPCA plans tend to achieve comparable performance as clinical plans, even when controlling for plan complexity, whereas BQ plans tended to underperform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Public access defibrillation programs can improve survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are rarely available for bystander use at the scene. Drones are an emerging technology that can deliver an AED to the scene of an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest for bystander use. We hypothesize that a drone network designed with the aid of a mathematical model combining both optimization and queuing can reduce the time to AED arrival.Methods: We applied our model to 53 702 out-of-hospital cardiac arrests that occurred in the 8 regions of the Toronto Regional RescuNET between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2014. Our primary analysis quantified the drone network size required to deliver an AED 1, 2, or 3 minutes faster than historical median 911 response times for each region independently. A secondary analysis quantified the reduction in drone resources required if RescuNET was treated as a large coordinated region.Results: The region-specific analysis determined that 81 bases and 100 drones would be required to deliver an AED ahead of median 911 response times by 3 minutes. In the most urban region, the 90th percentile of the AED arrival time was reduced by 6 minutes and 43 seconds relative to historical 911 response times in the region. In the most rural region, the 90th percentile was reduced by 10 minutes and 34 seconds. A single coordinated drone network across all regions required 39.5% fewer bases and 30.0% fewer drones to achieve similar AED delivery times.Conclusions: An optimized drone network designed with the aid of a novel mathematical model can substantially reduce the AED delivery time to an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found.Conclusion: Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Efforts to guide automated external defibrillator placement for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treatment have focused on identifying broadly defined location categories without considering hours of operation. Broad location categories may be composed of many businesses with varying accessibility. Identifying specific locations for automated external defibrillator deployment incorporating operating hours and time of OHCA occurrence may improve automated external defibrillator accessibility. We aim to identify specific businesses and municipal locations that maximize OHCA coverage on the basis of spatiotemporal assessment of OHCA risk in the immediate vicinity of franchise locations.Methods: This study was a retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Toronto Regional RescuNET Epistry cardiac arrest database. We identified all nontraumatic public OHCAs occurring in Toronto, ON, Canada, from January 2007 through December 2015. We identified 41 unique businesses and municipal location types with ≥20 locations in Toronto from the YellowPages, Canadian Franchise Association, and the City of Toronto Open Data Portal. We obtained their geographic coordinates and hours of operation from Web sites, by phone, or in person. We determined the number of OHCAs that occurred within 100 m of each location when it was open (spatiotemporal coverage) for Toronto overall and downtown. The businesses and municipal locations were then ranked by spatiotemporal OHCA coverage. To evaluate temporal stability of the rankings, we calculated intraclass correlation of the annual coverage values.Results: There were 2654 nontraumatic public OHCAs. Tim Hortons ranked first in Toronto, covering 286 OHCAs. Starbucks ranked first in downtown, covering 110 OHCAs. Coffee shops and bank machines from the 5 largest Canadian banks occupied 8 of the top 10 spots in both Toronto and downtown. The rankings exhibited high temporal stability with intraclass correlation values of 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.93) in Toronto and 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.86) in downtown.Conclusions: We identified and ranked businesses and municipal locations by spatiotemporal OHCA risk in their immediate vicinity. This approach may help policy makers and funders to identify and prioritize potential partnerships for automated external defibrillator deployment in public-access defibrillator programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To determine how training set size affects the accuracy of knowledge-based treatment planning (KBP) models. Methods: The authors selected four models from three classes of KBP approaches, corresponding to three distinct quantities that KBP models may predict: dose-volume histogram (DVH) points, DVH curves, and objective function weights. DVH point prediction is done using the best plan from a database of similar clinical plans; DVH curve prediction employs principal component analysis and multiple linear regression; and objective function weights uses either logistic regression or K-nearest neighbors. The authors trained each KBP model using training sets of sizes n = 10, 20, 30, 50, 75, 100, 150, and 200. The authors set aside 100 randomly selected patients from their cohort of 315 prostate cancer patients from Princess Margaret Cancer Center to serve as a validation set for all experiments. For each value of n, the authors randomly selected 100 different training sets with replacement from the remaining 215 patients. Each of the 100 training sets was used to train a model for each value of n and for each KBT approach. To evaluate the models, the authors predicted the KBP endpoints for each of the 100 patients in the validation set. To estimate the minimum required sample size, the authors used statistical testing to determine if the median error for each sample size from 10 to 150 is equal to the median error for the maximum sample size of 200. Results: The minimum required sample size was different for each model. The DVH point prediction method predicts two dose metrics for the bladder and two for the rectum. The authors found that more than 200 samples were required to achieve consistent model predictions for all four metrics. For DVH curve prediction, the authors found that at least 75 samples were needed to accurately predict the bladder DVH, while only 20 samples were needed to predict the rectum DVH. Finally, for objective function weight prediction, at least 10 samples were needed to train the logistic regression model, while at least 150 samples were required to train the K-nearest neighbor methodology. Conclusions: In conclusion, the minimum required sample size needed to accurately train KBP models for prostate cancer depends on the specific model and endpoint to be predicted. The authors' results may provide a lower bound for more complicated tumor sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: There is evidence that computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging metrics are prognostic and predictive in nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment outcomes. However, few studies have explored the use of standardized uptake value (SUV)-based image features of nodal regions as predictive features. The authors investigated and compared the use of tumor and node image features extracted from the radiotherapy target volumes to predict relapse in a cohort of NSCLC patients undergoing chemoradiation treatment. Methods: A prospective cohort of 25 patients with locally advanced NSCLC underwent 4DPET/4DCT imaging for radiation planning. Thirty-seven image features were derived from the CT-defined volumes and SUVs of the PET image from both the tumor and nodal target regions. The machine learning methods of logistic regression and repeated stratified five-fold cross-validation (CV) were used to predict local and overall relapses in 2 yr. The authors used well-known feature selection methods (Spearman's rank correlation, recursive feature elimination) within each fold of CV. Classifiers were ranked on their Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) after CV. Area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity values are also presented. Results: For predicting local relapse, the best classifier found had a mean MCC of 0.07 and was composed of eight tumor features. For predicting overall relapse, the best classifier found had a mean MCC of 0.29 and was composed of a single feature: the volume greater than 0.5 times the maximum SUV (N). Conclusions: The best classifier for predicting local relapse had only tumor features. In contrast, the best classifier for predicting overall relapse included a node feature. Overall, the methods showed that nodes add value in predicting overall relapse but not local relapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To develop and evaluate the clinical applicability of advanced machine learning models that simultaneously predict multiple optimization objective function weights from patient geometry for intensity-modulated radiation therapy of prostate cancer. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method was applied retrospectively to determine optimal objective function weights for 315 treated patients. The authors used an overlap volume ratio (OV) of bladder and rectum for different PTV expansions and overlap volume histogram slopes (OVSR and OVSB for the rectum and bladder, respectively) as explanatory variables that quantify patient geometry. Using the optimal weights as ground truth, the authors trained and applied three prediction models: logistic regression (LR), multinomial logistic regression (MLR), and weighted K-nearest neighbor (KNN). The population average of the optimal objective function weights was also calculated. Results: The OV at 0.4 cm and OVSR at 0.1 cm features were found to be the most predictive of the weights. The authors observed comparable performance (i.e., no statistically significant difference) between LR, MLR, and KNN methodologies, with LR appearing to perform the best. All three machine learning models outperformed the population average by a statistically significant amount over a range of clinical metrics including bladder/rectum V53Gy, bladder/rectum V70Gy, and dose to the bladder, rectum, CTV, and PTV. When comparing the weights directly, the LR model predicted bladder and rectum weights that had, on average, a 73% and 74% relative improvement over the population average weights, respectively. The treatment plans resulting from the LR weights had, on average, a rectum V70Gy that was 35% closer to the clinical plan and a bladder V70Gy that was 29% closer, compared to the population average weights. Similar results were observed for all other clinical metrics. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the KNN and MLR weight prediction methodologies perform comparably to the LR model and can produce clinical quality treatment plans by simultaneously predicting multiple weights that capture trade-offs associated with sparing multiple OARs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment planning typically combines multiple criteria into a single objective function by taking a weighted sum. The authors propose a statistical model that predicts objective function weights from patient anatomy for prostate IMRT treatment planning. This study provides a proof of concept for geometry-driven weight determination. Methods: A previously developed inverse optimization method (IOM) was used to generate optimal objective function weights for 24 patients using their historical treatment plans (i.e., dose distributions). These IOM weights were around 1% for each of the femoral heads, while bladder and rectum weights varied greatly between patients. A regression model was developed to predict a patient's rectum weight using the ratio of the overlap volume of the rectum and bladder with the planning target volume at a 1 cm expansion as the independent variable. The femoral head weights were fixed to 1% each and the bladder weight was calculated as one minus the rectum and femoral head weights. The model was validated using leave-one-out cross validation. Objective values and dose distributions generated through inverse planning using the predicted weights were compared to those generated using the original IOM weights, as well as an average of the IOM weights across all patients. Results: The IOM weight vectors were on average six times closer to the predicted weight vectors than to the average weight vector, using l2 distance. Likewise, the bladder and rectum objective values achieved by the predicted weights were more similar to the objective values achieved by the IOM weights. The difference in objective value performance between the predicted and average weights was statistically significant according to a one-sided sign test. For all patients, the difference in rectum V54.3 Gy, rectum V70.0 Gy, bladder V54.3 Gy, and bladder V70.0 Gy values between the dose distributions generated by the predicted weights and IOM weights was less than 5 percentage points. Similarly, the difference in femoral head V54.3 Gy values between the two dose distributions was less than 5 percentage points for all but one patient. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a proof of concept that patient anatomy can be used to predict appropriate objective function weights for treatment planning. In the long term, such geometry-driven weights may serve as a starting point for iterative treatment plan design or may provide information about the most clinically relevant region of the Pareto surface to explore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hearing loss is the leading human sensory system loss, and one of the leading causes for years lived with disability with significant effects on quality of life, social isolation, and overall health. Coupled with a forecast of increased hearing loss burden worldwide, national and international health organizations have urgently recommended that access to hearing evaluation be expanded to meet demand. The objective of this study was to develop 'AutoAudio' – a novel deep learning proof-of-concept model that accurately and quickly interprets diagnostic audiograms. Adult audiogram reports representing normal, conductive, mixed and sensorineural morphologies were used to train different neural network architectures. Image augmentation techniques were used to increase the training image set size. Classification accuracy on a separate test set was used to assess model performance. The architecture with the highest out-of-training set accuracy was ResNet-101 at 97.5%. Neural network training time varied between 2 to 7 h depending on the depth of the neural network architecture. Each neural network architecture produced misclassifications that arose from failures of the model to correctly label the audiogram with the appropriate hearing loss type. The most commonly misclassified hearing loss type were mixed losses. Re-engineering the process of hearing testing with a machine learning innovation may help enhance access to the growing worldwide population that is expected to require audiologist services. Our results suggest that deep learning may be a transformative technology that enables automatic and accurate audiogram interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]