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In 2017 the Scottish Government passed the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act with the commitment to significantly reduce the relative child poverty rate from the current prevailing level of around 25% to 10% by 2030/31. In response, the government introduced the Scottish Child Payment (SCP) that provides a direct transfer to households at a fixed rate per eligible child – currently £25 per week. In this paper we explore, using a micro to macro modelling approach, the effectiveness of using the SCP to achieve the Scottish child poverty targets. While we find that the ambitious child poverty targets can technically be met solely using the SCP, the necessary payment of £165 per week amounting to a total government cost of £3 billion per year, makes the political and economy-wide barriers significant. A key issue with only using the SCP is the non-linearity in the response to the payment; as the payment increases, the marginal gain in the reduction of child poverty decreases – this is particularly evident after payments of £80 per week. A 'policy-mix' option combining the SCP, targeted cash transfers and other policy levels (such as childcare provision) seems the most promising approach to reaching the child poverty targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct and parameterize an overlapping generations model for an open economy with individuals who differ in innate ability. Key endogenous variables are hours worked, investment in human and physical capital, and per capita growth. The model replicates important data in Belgium since 1960 remarkably well. Simulating it, we observe that behavioral adjustments by households and firms contribute to reverse the negative arithmetical effect of future demographic change on per capita growth. Individuals work and study more. However, with unchanged policies, there remains a net negative effect on annual per capita growth of almost 0.3%-points on average in the next 25 years. This is mainly due to adverse consequences of reduced fertility and a declining working-age population on (the return to) physical capital investment. Model projections also point to rising income inequality induced by demographic change. Differences in the capacity of individuals to respond to increasing life expectancy by investing in education, and by saving, are key. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing constraints on crude oil resources contribute to the emergence of liquid biofuels as an alternative for road transport fuels. The European Union (EU) Parliament called for a 7% limit on crop-based biofuels by 2030 and proposed increasing the incorporation target for advanced biofuels, within the proposals under discussion in relation to the post-2020 EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by 2021–2030. The main objective of this work is to assess the economic impacts of the EU Parliament's decision concerning first generation biofuels. We also determine the conditions under which advanced biofuels could become available by examining the evolution of oil prices and public subsidies. We employ a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated on the French economy. Advanced biofuels are modelled as latent technology and we include biofuel by-products. Our simulations provide guidelines for public decision-makers to design alternative fiscal policies to support biofuels in a context of regulatory uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the last seven years, the Spanish economy has been struggling to reduce the ratio of public deficit-GDP from 11.1 percent in 2009 to 3 percent. This value is a commitment recorded in the Stability and Growth Pact signed by eu members and it has been determining the economic policies implemented by the Spanish Government since 2010. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the costs of a decline in 1.5 pp the ratio of public deficit-GDP on the main macroeconomic variables with alternative fiscal policies. Methodology: The model used is a static disaggregated Computable General Equilibrium model that includes all the elements needed to evaluate the short run effects of fiscal policies aimed to reduce public deficit. This model captures the circular fl ow of income and accounts for households corporations, government and the foreign sector. Results: The results suggest that the decline of public spending on investment, public administrations and social services has less harmful effects on the economy than the increase of vat and personal income tax rates. Conclusions: Despite these results, it is important to take into account that the long run effects of declining public investment and social services are not included in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the welfare implications of two pre-crisis immigration waves (1991-2000 and 2001-2010) and of the post-crisis wave (2011-2015) for OECD native citizens. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the main channels of transmission of immigration shocks - the employment and wage effects, the fiscal effect and the market size effect - and for the interactions between them. We parameterize our model for 20 selected OECD member states. We find that the three waves induce positive effects on the real income of natives; however, the size of these gains varies considerably across countries and across skill groups. In relative terms, the post-crisis wave induces smaller welfare gains compared to the previous ones. This is due to the changing origin mix of immigrants, which translates into lower levels of human capital and smaller fiscal gains. With a few exceptions, differences across cohorts explain a tiny fraction of the highly persistent, cross-country heterogeneity in the economic benefits from immigration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the production of biofuels has expanded in recent years, findings in the literature on its impact on economic growth and development remain contradictory. This paper presents a meta-analysis of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies published between 2006 and 2017 on the effect of biofuel production on economic development worldwide. Using 30 CGE studies, we found that biofuel-supportive policies generated significant impacts on GDP and household incomes. CGE studies included in our database reported an average 0.25 percentage point increase in GDP and a 0.49 percentage point increase in household incomes. We also found that results were driven by several key features of the CGE studies included in our database. We investigated features such as biofuel type, geographic area, and characteristics of the CGE models employed. We found that biofuel expansion has heterogeneous effects in developed versus emerging countries. Simulations on longer time periods and in multi-country studies led to results that indicate higher impacts of biofuel expansion on GDP growth and household incomes. Moreover, simulations with an increase in agricultural productivity indicate positive welfare impact gains, unlike simulations with land expansion. Lastly, we found that biodiesel development leads to higher welfare impact gains than that of bioethanol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the importance of modelling energy-intensive household services in general, and private transportation in particular, as combinations of energy and other inputs. Initially a partial equilibrium approach is used to analyse private transport consumption as a self-produced commodity formed by household vehicle and fuel use. We particularly focus on the impact of private vehicle-augmenting technical progress in this framework. We show that household fuel use will fall if it is easier to substitute between vehicles and fuel in the household production of private transport services than it is to substitute between private transport and the composite of all other goods in overall household consumption. The analysis is then extended, through Computable General Equilibrium simulation, to investigate the wider implications of similar efficiency improvements when intermediate demand, prices and nominal income are endogenous. The subsequent reduction in the price of private transport service (not observable in market prices) allows the wage measured relative to the CPI to rise whilst the wage relative to the price of foreign goods falls. This simultaneously increases UK international competitiveness, encouraging increased exports and reduced import penetration whilst allowing employment to rise. This provides an additional supply-side stimulus to production, employment and household income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Half a century of centrally planned policy in the Central and Eastern European countries resulted in outdated technologies, inefficient allocation of resources and low productivity. Following the end of communism there was a fifteen year process of transition which ended in 2004 with eight post-communist countries joining the European Union (EU) of which Poland was the largest. As part of the EU these countries now face the challenge of the common EU strategy Europe 2020 , which has set the target of achieving R&D expenditure to GDP ratio (called the R&D intensity) of 3% by 2020 for the Union as a whole in an effort to increase the competitiveness of the region. Poland, like the other post-communist countries, faces a lower target of R&D intensity, set at 1.7%. Nevertheless, the challenge is immense, since the country is still at only half that level and has little experience in developing policies to help achieve it. In this paper we tested two possible policy options to achieve the target: (1) to increase government expenditures on R&D and; (2) to provide tax relief on R&D to businesses. The method applied to assess the options is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Poland with an explicit link between productivity and R&D stock. The results show that achieving the R&D intensity target via the use of tax relief is 2.5 times more costly to the government budget, but it has a greater impact on the economy in terms of a higher GDP growth. Tax relief proved efficient in the short run while in the long run the government expenditure policy provides better value for money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pricing carbon is a widely used policy instrument for climate change mitigation. Quantitative analysis of carbon pricing are mainly conducted at the regional and national level, rarely at the city level due to data availability. As a representative of coastal megacities that are vulnerable to both climate change and climate policies, Singapore has announced to impose carbon tax on large direct emitters as a complementary mitigation option to technical measures. A city-level Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is developed to simulate potential impacts of carbon pricing on the city, including paying border-carbon-adjustment (BCA) on exports or introducing a domestic carbon tax. Different sector coverages and carbon tax revenue recycling schemes are investigated for domestic carbon tax. The simulation results show that a domestic carbon tax is a more cost-effective option than paying BCA. Given an identical carbon price at S$10/t-CO 2 , GDP, total exports and household consumption would decline less and average abatement cost is much smaller in the carbon tax scenarios compared to the BCA scenario. In terms of absolute emissions reduction, a carbon tax that covers energy, manufacturing and land transport sectors would be preferred, making emissions around 2.7% lower than 2010 baseline level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy markets are characterized by many agents simultaneously solving decision problems under uncertainty. It is argued that Monte Carlo simulations are not an adequate way to assess behavioral uncertainty; one should rather rely on stochastic modelling. Drawing on economics, decision theory and operations research, a simple guide on how to transform a deterministic energy market equilibrium model - where several agents simultaneously make decisions - into a stochastic equilibrium model is offered. With our approach, no programming of a stochastic solution algorithm is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hawaii generates the majority of its electricity through oil-fired generation. New production technologies have led to rapidly declining natural gas prices that has renewed Hawaii's interest in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. This study integrates a detailed model of Hawaii's electric sector with a computable general equilibrium model of Hawaii's economy to estimate the economic and greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of importing LNG for use in the electric sector. Incorporating a range of possible price pathways (low, medium and high) out to the year 2040 for LNG imports, we find Hawaii could lower electric sector costs in a range from 6 to 16 % and petroleum refining output declines by over 20 % (in 2040). Gross state product increases in a range of $300 million to $5 billion in net present value. Using natural gas reduces out-of-stack GHG emissions but can also increase GHG emissions in other jurisdictions. Moreover, introducing natural gas could reduce the incentive to pursue renewable energy and energy efficiency. As such, adopting and enforcing policies encouraging renewable energy and efficiency becomes even more important to meet Hawaii's clean energy and GHG mitigation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate change endangering environmental sustainability, and food–biofuel competition still looming large, the pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) requires balancing this trade-off. By highlighting the role of current-vintage agro-fuel technology in combating twin crisis, we calibrate a 23 regions-24 sectors Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to enumerate the impacts of: [i] 10% biotechnological invention in maize grains, rice and wheat; [ii] productivity growth in new agro-chemical inputs; [iii] impact of next generation biofuel technology (5% productivity shock). The results confirm that investing in factors for adoption of third-generation biofuels could be significant policy response for mitigating the adverse impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quests for the intrinsic complementarities among environmental pollution abatement, induced technological innovation to combat human-induced climate change, targeted expansions for green employment, and enhanced welfare through gains in private income. Utilizing data from the Turkish economy, we implement an applied general equilibrium model to study the synergies between environmental abatement instruments and policies towards sustaining green jobs. Our results are indicative that by a proper mix of environmental taxation and technological and institutional innovations, Turkey can serve as an example for a host of developing countries in setting the stage for a pro-employment and eco-friendly, sustained growth path. We further show that for the successful implementation of a carbon emissions mitigation strategy, elimination of the burden of existing labor taxes and factor market distortions are crucial. Our analysis suggests that complemented with a strategy of substitution of environmental taxes against the existing distortionary labor taxes, costs abatement on domestic income and employment could be negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic resources have been widely used for agricultural animal breeding, drug development, and biomaterials. Coherent assessments of global warming on biodiversity based on economic models are necessary. Little research, however, has been done in the quantitative evaluation incurred across multi sectors including a primary industry sector and a pharmaceutical sector based on genetic resources (PGR) at a global level, though both citizens and stakeholders are keenly interested in this issue. Accordingly, this study focuses on a part of biodiversity, and assesses impacts of global warming on agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and PGR industries using a CGE model, the evaluation model for environmental damage and adaptation (EMEDA). Simulated results by EMEDA indicate that: USA, Russia, EU-25, Oceania, East Asia and the rest of the world will experience economic growth, with other regions offsetting economic damages in the primary industry sector. Most regions offset damages in the PGR sector under the various scenarios including the 2 $$^\circ$$ C climate target by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use a computable overlapping generations model economy to analyze the quantitative effects of some reforms on tax and transfer programs, aimed at easing the tax burden on the labor supply of older workers. We focus on retirement behavior, work hours over the life cycle, and efficiency gains. We find that the labor supply of older workers is very responsive to changes in tax and transfer programs and show that the gains, in terms of old-age work hours, are non-trivial. However, we also find that longer careers may not substantially increase aggregate hours because workers may reallocate labor supply over the life cycle in response to retiring later. Moreover, since longer careers may also reduce saving rates, we also find that changes in tax and transfer programs aimed at boosting the employment rates of the elderly may reduce output per head. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple model is used to illustrate the effects of a reduction in (marginal) abatement cost in a two-country setting. It can be shown that a country experiencing a cost reduction can actually be worse off. This holds true for a variety of quantity and price-based emission policies. Under price-based policies, a country with lower abatement costs might engage in additional abatement effort for which it is not compensated. Under a quantity-based policy with a given allocation, a seller of permits can also be negatively affected by a lower carbon price. We also argue that abatement cost shocks to renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) are different in terms of their effects on international energy markets. A shock to renewable energy benefits energy importers because the value of fossil fuels is reduced. The opposite holds for a shock to CCS which benefits energy exporters. The channels identified in the theoretical model can be confirmed in a more complex global computable general equilibrium model. Some regions are indeed worse off from a shock that lowers their abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement asserts that greenhouse gas emission pathways should be consistent with holding the increase in global temperature below 1.5 °C, or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to assess the economic impact of this agreement on the cattle and food product sectors of New Zealand. We used a general equilibrium approach to evaluate the economic impacts, and the Global Timber Model to estimate forestry carbon sequestration. We simulated eight scenarios where we allow accounting/not accounting for sequestration, pricing/not pricing agricultural emissions, and linking/not linking the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) with the European Union ETS. We found that significant negative impacts occur if sequestration is not accounted, the ETS remains unlinked and agriculture is priced. Competitiveness, in turn, is not significantly affected if sequestration is accounted, regardless of the linking scheme of the ETS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian telecommunications sector experienced substantial structural change during the 1990s, a change that increased productivity and reduced costs. At this time, telecommunications was already an important item of household expenditure and input to production. We estimate the effect of the structural change on households depending on their location in the distribution of income and expenditure. Our estimates are calculated by applying a computable general equilibrium model incorporating microsimulation behaviour with top-down and bottom-up links. We estimate significant increases in real income and small increases in inequality from the changes; the pattern of effects is largely uniform across regions. Sensitivity analysis indicates that our results are insensitive to variations in model parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze Ukraine's deep and comprehensive integration with the EU, we develop a multi-regional general-equilibrium simulation model incorporating heterogeneous firms and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in business services. This allows for consideration of (a) trade growth in new varieties; (b) aggregate productivity changes attributed to reallocation of resources across and within an industry; and (c) productivity growth in manufacturing due to increased access to business services. The results indicate relatively small gains for the EU, whereas Ukraine benefits with a welfare increase of over 8%. The deindustrialization impact, previously found by Olekseyuk and Balistreri (2014) in a comparison of different modeling structures, is supported by our findings. Ukraine's welfare gains are higher under an Armington structure compared to monopolistic competition. This is due to a movement of resources into Ukraine's traditional export sectors producing under constant returns. Implementation of the FDI modeling approach and liberalization of barriers to FDI, however, mitigates the deindustrialization impact as multinational firms enter the Ukrainian market. This increases the number of available varieties and, consequently, induces productivity growth of manufacturing sectors due to improved access to business services as critical inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the Orani-G Computable General Equilibrium model with an externality market. The externality market is modelled with a limited number of pollution permits that are traded between representative firms in different sectors. The model is applied to identify the gains of a common nitrogen regulation system for Danish agriculture crop and aquaculture production. Common regulation across the two sectors is found to increase GDP by euro 32 million, corresponding to 2.2% of their initial GDP contribution. The direct effect in the two sectors is euro 39 million, where the spill-over effect is − 7 million. Full use of recirculation technology in aquaculture entails a further increase in GDP to 106 million. The introduction of a common regulatory system and recirculation technology, simultaneous with a reduction of the common nitrogen cap of 17.6%, corresponding to the current policy objectives, is found to increase GDP by 52 million, 4.1% of their initial contribution. Hence, introducing a common regulatory system and taking advantage of the new technology more than counterbalances the negative socio-economic effect of a cap reduction. The analysis points to the importance of introducing more coherent regulatory frameworks that include all polluters under the same regulatory system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper analyses the impact of the EU funds, for the European region of Azores, as they affect GDP, employment, and the wellbeing of families in different income levels, using a dynamic, multi-sector, computable general equilibrium model ( CGE) - Azor Mod. Simulating the impact of a total cut in transfers and comparing with a base business as usual scenario, it is concluded that the elimination of the EU transfers could cause a sharp permanent fall on public demand and an immediate 2 per cent fall in GDP. The fall in public demand causes a fall in consumer and investment prices which will foster a sharp increase in investment demand that gradually causes GDP to grow back to its initial levels within a ten year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union (EU) has developed a strategy to mitigate climate change by cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fostering low carbon technologies. However, the risk of implementing unilateral policies is that distortive effects are generated at the global scale affecting world energy prices, international competitiveness and the geographical allocation of carbon intensive production processes. Using a dynamic CGE model, we assess the rate of carbon leakage and adverse impacts on competitiveness in a number of scenarios over the period 2010–2050. According to the model results, we highlight two major issues. First, in the case of a unilateral EU climate policy, carbon leakage and negative effects on competitiveness are quite serious. Anti-leakage measures can only mitigate leakage and adverse economic impacts on competitiveness in a limited way. On the contrary, an optimality analysis addressing the environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and political feasibility of alternative policy solutions reveals that the EU long term decarbonisation strategy by investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy might ensure protection of vulnerable manufacturing activities while enhancing the competitiveness of technologically-advanced industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many resource-rich developing countries are often faced with the challenge of generating sufficient employment for poverty alleviation due to factors such as the capital-intensive nature of resource extraction, the lack of (or weak) linkages between the resource sector and the wider economy, and potential Dutch disease effects. Using Papua New Guinea as a case study, this paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to analyse some options for a resource-dependent developing country to boost growth in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Four policy experiments were conducted to examine the impacts of increased primary factor productivity growth in the agricultural and manufacturing industries; increased investment in agriculture; increased investment in agriculture in conjunction with improved infrastructure; and improved value adding and productivity in agro-processing. Our results indicate that investing in agriculture and manufacturing without addressing supply side constraints such as poor road infrastructure would fail to maximise the desired impacts. We also show that by shifting the emphasis from production of primary commodities for export to value adding or secondary production activities, resource-dependent developing countries could enhance growth and employment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The point of departure for the study of the impact of energy and environmental policies is the neo-classical theory of economic growth formulated by Cass (1965) and Koopmans (1967). The long-run properties of economic growth models are independent of energy and environmental policies. However, these policies affect capital accumulation and rates of productivity growth that determine the intermediate-run trends that are important for policy evaluation. Heterogeneity of different energy producers and consumers is critical for the implementation of energy and environmental policies. To capture this heterogeneity it is necessary to distinguish among commodities, industries, and households. Econometric methods are essential for summarizing information on different industries and consumer groups in a form suitable for general equilibrium modeling. In this paper we consider the application of econometric general equilibrium modeling to the U.S., the economy that has been studied most intensively. The framework for our analysis is provided by the Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model (IGEM) introduced by Jorgenson and Wilcoxen (1990). The new version of the IGEM presented in this paper is employed for the evaluation of proposed legislation on climate policy by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2011). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the monetized damage from emitting one unit of CO 2 to the atmosphere, often obtained from computational Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). We develop a closed-form formula that approximates the SCC for a general economy, and then explore the capacity of the analytical approach to capture the key SCC drivers and thus to replicate the results of the deterministic IAMs. The formula explains the parameter-driven SCC variation of a mainstream IAM without a systematic bias. The sensitivity analysis identifies and measures the performance limits of the closed-form formulas. We then use the analytic formula to structurally interpret a distribution of SCCs from deterministic IAMs, and develop an analytical breakdown and quantification of how different sets of parameters contribute to the SCC distribution. This allows the user of the formula to evaluate where particular parameter choices tend to place the resulting SCC outcome in the distribution of outcomes for the universe of deterministic IAMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the effects of increasing the retirement age in two economies with overlapping generations and within cohort ex ante heterogeneity. The first economy has a defined benefit system, and the second economy is in transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution. We find that if increase in the retirement age is phased in a way that allows agents to adjust, welfare is not reduced and welfare effects have a similar magnitude and between-cohort distribution in both types of the pension systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify the impacts of a sharp fall of Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) to China that occurred after the worldwide financial crisis in 2009 using a three-region (Japan, China, and the rest of the world) recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model with multinational enterprises (MNEs). The FDI fall would reduce exports and production of Japanese MNE affiliates in China and depreciate the Renminbi. This latter effect would favor Chinese manufacturing, but China, would not be a gainer, because it would experience a contraction in its service sector, which would exceed the gains in manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the newly developed dynamic spatial general equilibrium model of European Commission, RHOMOLO, and proposes its future extensions. The model incorporates several elements from economic geography in a novel and theoretically consistent way. It describes the location choice of different types of agents and captures the interplay between agglomeration and dispersion forces in determining the spatial equilibrium. The model is also dynamic as it allows for the accumulation of factors of production, human capital and technology. This makes RHOMOLO particularly suited for simulating policy scenario related to the EU cohesion policy and for the analysis of its impact on the regions and the Member States of the union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Czech Republic is obliged to implement pollution charges in accordance with the EU environmental policy. The charges may affect international competitiveness of the country, since they are applied to the domestically produced, but not to the imported commodities. We investigate how such environmental taxation of six main pollutants affects the Czech competitiveness. Using computable general equilibrium modeling with bottom-up approach, we consider a small-open economy with endogenous unemployment and ten types of taxes. A distinction between taxes on products and taxes on production is essential for analysis of a fiscal policy. Emissions reduction is possible in our model either through substitution with less polluting inputs, or a reduction of output, or through technical abatement. The last channel for emission reduction is ignored by other studies. The results show that the imports should not be affected by the tax reform, except for coal. Exports will increase in the non-energy-intensive and the biomass industries, but it will decrease in the chemical, the coal, and the metal industries. The overall effect on the trade balance is slightly negative. We conclude that investments in energy-saving technologies are necessary in order to preserve international competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In 2010, the Iranian Government launched several market-oriented reforms, including the removal of distortions on heavily subsidized food and energy products. We use a microconsistent CGE model with 20 urban and rural households to model the actual characteristics of the food and energy subsidy reforms as implemented by the Iranian Government, calibrated to econometrically estimated income elasticities, and accounting for variations in sources of income and family size across households. Results suggest that food and energy subsidy reforms accompanied by lump-sum payments to households could result in aggregate welfare gains of over 45 per cent, with low income households experiencing welfare gains of well over 100 per cent. Reforms are accompanied by an increase in real government revenue of over 30 per cent. So while the subsidy reform programme is likely responsible for at least some of the inflationary pressures currently being experienced by the Iranian economy, it should not be seen as being responsible for the Iranian government's current fiscal difficulties, nor should it be blamed for the recent contraction of the Iranian economy, both of which are more likely due to the effects of international sanctions and the steep decline in the value of the Iranian Rial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the economic effects of increasing military expenditure, a requirement in the Republic of Korea. The effects of military expenditure are examined with various scenarios concerning financial resources from an endogenous growth perspective. The dynamic Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed in order to measure the aggregate effect of changes in military expenditure. Raising the indirect tax rate is the best for GDP, but a corporate income tax rate increase is the best for gross output. The differences between short-term and long-term effects are verified by the dynamic change in each indicator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper “stress tests” African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recognising human capital's central role in economic development, many countries in the Asia Pacific region have allocated significant resources to the development of their education sectors. However, despite growing policy concern over acute mismatches between qualification supply and qualification demand, few of these countries have national systems for generating and disseminating employment forecasts. In this paper, we outline a forecasting method that is parsimonious in its data requirements, making it suitable for the often data-constrained research environments of the Asia Pacific's developing economies. We apply the method to Vietnam, a rapidly growing transition economy. The method generates detailed labour market projections, while also making transparent the underlying macroeconomic, structural and policy shocks that determine the forecasts. A decomposition of forecast outcomes in terms of the individual contributions of these shocks facilitates transparency in forecasting, by clearly distinguishing and ranking factors responsible for generating each forecast outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines the mechanisms of social cost of carbon (SCC) and marginal abatement cost (MAC) in climate change modeling. To examine these mechanisms, we observed the shifts in the marginal benefit (MB) and marginal cost (MC) curves of carbon dioxide (CO) abatement when parameter values are changed. In the observation, we used the DICE model proposed by Nordhaus (A question of balance: weighing the options on global warming policies. Yale University Press, New Haven, ) changing 24 parameters for the observation. In consequent, firstly, we have found that discount rate is not only one of the parameters which significantly raise the carbon price, that is, other parameters may have significant impact too. Secondly, we have found that there are two patterns in the rise of the SCC, and three patterns in the rise of the MAC. Thirdly, we have found that the difference between the rise of the SCC and MAC is primarily caused by the horizontal MB curve in CO emissions reduction; an upward shift of MC curve raises MAC but never raises the SCC. Thus, the choice of the SCC or MAC may make the change of carbon price different, affecting global warming policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ComputationandSimulationhave always played a role in economics – whether it be pure economic theory or any variant of applied, especially policy-oriented, macro- and microeconomics or what has increasingly come to be called empirical or experimental economics. Computations and simulations are also intrinsically dynamic. This triptych – computation, simulation and dynamic – is given natural foundations, mainly as a result of developments in the mathematics underpinnings in the potentials of computing, using digital technology. A running theme in this essay is the recognition that, increasingly, the development of economic theory seems to go hand in hand with advances in the theory and practice of computing, which is, in turn, a catalyst for the move away from too much reliance on any kind of mathematics for the formalisation of economic entities that is inconsistent with the mathematical, methodological and epistemological foundations of the theory of computation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses fiscal sustainability of public debt using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. First, we identify the short-term risk for fiscal stress at country level; second, we investigate the assumption of convergence towards the government debt threshold (medium-term challenge); and, third, the requirement that debt projections do not show unsustainable trends (long-term challenge). The empirical implementation includes 18 EU Member States. Our findings show that the constant tax rate that stabilizes the public debt converges to 50 percentage of GDP for all the sample countries and tax revenues are the main driving forces for fiscal sustainability. Also our findings suggest that the contribution in terms of GDP growth is relevant in countries with low (high) debt-to-GDP ratio in the long (short) term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the auction problem of a kind of continuous homogeneous divisible goods is studied and a uniform price auction mechanism is presented based on three conditions, i.e. the auctioneer’s supply is variable, every bidder submits multiple rounds continuous linear bidding, and every bidder’s valuation to per unit of the goods is independent private information. Concretely, two key problems, i.e. the bidders’ asymptotic strategic behaviours and forming process and composition of equilibrium points are explored. The conclusion is drawn that different bidders’ bidding order and different starting points of initial bidding would not cause different local equilibrium points, and if the equilibrium points exist, then the equilibrium point is unique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent times, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets have been frequently discussed in climate-change policy debates. Computable energy-economic models have played a significant role in the process of formulating policy goals. However, these models are very complicated and contain many ad hoc parameters that may be unclear to policy makers. The purpose of this article is to explore how the elasticity parameters between carbon-based inputs and other inputs play significant roles in estimating the impacts of GHG reduction targets on both the GDP and carbon prices required for achieving the target. Further, it discusses the implications of using ad hoc parameters for climate-change policy making. The analysis is expected to contribute to creating a sound procedure for climate-change policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the interplay between international trade, regional adaptation to climate change and financial transfers for funding adaptation. It combines insights from a theoretical model of North-to-South transfers with the findings of a calibrated dynamic multi-region multi-sector computable general equilibrium model that takes into account the impacts of climate change and the adaptation to it. Assessing the effects of adaptation funding indicates that funding of adaptation in developing regions can be Pareto-improving. Not only will developing regions, which do not own sufficient resources for adapting optimally, profit from receiving adaptation funding. Terms-of-trade improvements in the high and middle income donor countries can dominate transfer costs and hence lead to a net-welfare gain in almost any developed region except North America. As such our consideration adds a new argument for financially supporting adaptation in the developing world besides the well-known ones such as fairness and incentives for participation in a global climate treaty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper develops a CGE macro-model for Palestine, departing in three fundamental ways from the set-up applied in earlier studies. The present framework: (i) reformulates the modelling of fiscal policy in light of context-specific elements, including the absence of a government bond market and the incomplete transfer of revenues collected by Israel for the PNA; (ii) endogenizes private capital flows; (iii) postulates a demand-driven causality structure. Various policy scenarios are then assessed, with one crucial novelty: the overall effect of further trade liberalization turns out to be slightly contractionary, due to its fiscal implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy we investigate the economic effects of relaxing China's household registration system over the period 2008 to 2020. The modelling results show that reducing the institutional restriction to rural labour movement will encourage rural workers to move from agricultural and rural non-agricultural sectors into urban sectors. This enhanced labour movement will not only increase China's GDP and real consumption of households but it will also raise the real wages of agricultural and rural non-agricultural workers. Although the real wage of rural migrant workers will increase at a slightly lower rate than in the baseline scenario, rural migrant workers remain considerably better paid than agricultural and rural non-agricultural workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa is trapped in a cycle of modest growth, unacceptable poverty levels and record unemployment. This has led to renewed interest on the relationship between macro (growth) and micro (poverty and distribution) issues. This paper uses a macro–micro tool that couples a computable general equilibrium model with microsimulation models to examine the impact of further unilateral trade policy reforms on growth, poverty and welfare. Trade liberalisation alone has very minimal short-run macroeconomic consequences while its long-term impacts are positive and magnified by technical factor productivity (TFP) effects. Trade liberalisation has no appreciable impact on poverty in the short run even if we allow for trade-induced TFP increases. In the long run, however, poverty reduces even in the case when we do not allow for TFP increases. Trade liberalisation policy has been found to be progressive despite the low level of tariff protection remaining in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article researches quantitatively two distinctive roles of agriculture in the Free State provincial economy: a buffer role and the role of poverty alleviation using a Computable General Equilibrium model. To examine the capacity of the agriculture sector to act as a “buffer” in the presence of a negative external shock to the Free State provincial economy, two different shocks are considered: an increase in the international oil price together with a decrease in the international gold price and a devaluation of South African currency. In these simulations, the agricultural sector does not play a buffer role of absorbing labour displaced from other sectors. Our hypothesis was that in the presence of a negative external shock, the agricultural sector would be able to absorb, to some extent, the negative impact, especially labour. The argument is that when the rest of the economy suffers a slowdown, people will “migrate” back to agriculture and therefore the agricultural sector will grow and increase its labour demand, alleviating the impacts of the crisis. To analyse the impact of the agriculture sector on welfare and income distribution, an increase in agricultural production, industrial production and other sectors is simulated through increased labour productivity. The results suggest that the agricultural sector plays a significant role in reducing poverty and improving income distribution, but considering poverty the results suggest that the manufacturing sector increases income more than other sectors. Our hypothesis is that growth based on agriculture has a greater impact on poor income households than industrial-based growth. The assumption behind this is that more poor households rely on agriculture than on other sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The adoption of domestic emissions trading schemes (ETS) can impose a heavy burden on energy-intensive industries. Particularly, energy-intensive industries competing with foreign competitors could lose their international edge. Although the abatement of CO emissions in industrialized countries entails the reduction of their energy-intensive production, a corresponding increase in the production of energy-intensive goods in countries without CO regulations may lead to carbon 'leakage.' This paper examines the effects of various allocation methods of emissions permits in the Japanese ETS on the economy and CO emissions using a multiregional and multisector computable general equilibrium model. Specifically, we apply the Fischer and Fox (Land Econ 83(4):575-599, ) model to the Japanese economy to address carbon leakage and competitiveness issues. We compare auction schemes, grandfathering schemes, and output-based allocation (OBA) schemes. We further extend the model by examining a combination of auctions and OBA. Though the auction scheme is found to be the best in terms of macroeconomic impacts, the leakage rate is high and the harm to energy-intensive sectors can be significant. OBA causes less leakage and damage to energy-intensive sectors, but the macroeconomic impact is undesirable. Considering all three effects-leakage, competitiveness, and macroeconomics-we find that combinations of auctions and OBA are desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African market has become increasingly important to South Africa's agricultural trade. Exports have been increasing rapidly, although imports have not kept pace. This pattern is also evident in the general trade in manufactured goods. The purpose of this article is to look at the best estimate conditiuons that will prevail with respect to trade in agricultural and manufactured goods between South Africa (SACU) and the member countries of SADC, the East African Comminuity and COMESA. The analysis is conducted using the GTAP database and its associated general equilibrium model. The results show that South Africa benefits from integration in SADC and from the integration of the entire region, but not from integration with the EAC and COMESA. However, the latter steps are necessary to reap the benefits of integration in the entire region. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The present research proposes a macroeconomic assessment of the role of waste incineration with energy recovery (WtE) and controlled landfill biogas to electricity generation and their potential contribution to a CO emission reduction policy, within a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. From the modeling viewpoint, introducing these energy sectors in such a framework required both the extension of the GTAP7 database and the improvement of the ICES production nested function. We focus our analysis on Italy as a signatory of the GHG reduction commitment of 20 % by 2020 with respect to 1990 levels proposed by the European Community; the rest of the world is represented by 21 geo-political countries/regions. It is shown that albeit in the near future WtE and landfill biogas will continue to represent a limited share of energy inputs in electricity sector (in Italy, around 2 % for WtE and 0.6 % for biogas in 2020), and they could play a role in a mitigation policy context. The GDP cost of the EU emission reduction target for the Italian economy can indeed be reduced by 1 % when the two energy generating options are available. In absolute terms, this translates into an annuitized value of 87-122 million €. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the general equilibrium effects of the growth of high standard food chains on household welfare. To measure structural production changes and welfare effects on rural and urban households, our model has two types of agents, five kinds of products and four types of factors. We calibrate the model using a Chinese dataset. The simulation results show that the effects on poor rural households depend on a variety of factors, including the nature of the shocks leading to the expansion of high standard sector, production technologies, trade effects, spillover effects on low standard markets, factor market constraints and labour market effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]