1. Development of non-linear models predicting daily fine particle concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals and ground-based measurements at a municipality in the Brazilian Amazon region.
- Author
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Gonçalves, Karen dos Santos, Winkler, Mirko S., Benchimol-Barbosa, Paulo Roberto, de Hoogh, Kees, Artaxo, Paulo Eduardo, de Souza Hacon, Sandra, Schindler, Christian, and Künzli, Nino
- Subjects
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NONLINEAR statistical models , *ATMOSPHERIC aerosols , *ATMOSPHERIC temperature , *PARTICULATE matter , *CARBON dioxide mitigation - Abstract
Epidemiological studies generally use particulate matter measurements with diameter less 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) from monitoring networks. Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data has considerable potential in predicting PM 2.5 concentrations, and thus provides an alternative method for producing knowledge regarding the level of pollution and its health impact in areas where no ground PM 2.5 measurements are available. This is the case in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest region where forest fires are frequent sources of high pollution. In this study, we applied a non-linear model for predicting PM 2.5 concentration from AOD retrievals using interaction terms between average temperature, relative humidity, sine, cosine of date in a period of 365,25 days and the square of the lagged relative residual. Regression performance statistics were tested comparing the goodness of fit and R 2 based on results from linear regression and non-linear regression for six different models. The regression results for non-linear prediction showed the best performance, explaining on average 82% of the daily PM 2.5 concentrations when considering the whole period studied. In the context of Amazonia, it was the first study predicting PM 2.5 concentrations using the latest high-resolution AOD products also in combination with the testing of a non-linear model performance. Our results permitted a reliable prediction considering the AOD-PM 2.5 relationship and set the basis for further investigations on air pollution impacts in the complex context of Brazilian Amazon Region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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