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• Western Tasmania is climatically suitable for forests. • Forested areas in this region contain large expanses treeless sedgelands. • Sedgelands are more fire prone than forests. • Sedgelands have organic, poorly drained, and infertile soils. • Forests have mineral, well drained and nutrient rich soils. • Edaphic factors, not fire, are the primary cause of the sedgeland-forest mosaics. An unresolved, key question in plant ecology and biogeography is the relative importance of fire disturbance and edaphic factors in controlling treeless-forest boundaries. We investigated the similarities and differences in soil physical and chemical characteristics in Sedgeland, Scrub and Eucalyptus Forest sites in and around a large treeless area (Blakes Opening) situated in the densely forested Huon Valley in southern Tasmania. In each community, fire risk was also assessed over 12 months using microclimate measures of above-ground temperature and humidity, and water tables were monitored seasonally. Sedgeland soils and the upper layer of Scrub soils were organic (18–38 % C) and sand rich (c. 75 % of the mineral fraction), and differed fundamentally from the inorganic Forest soils (c. 5 % C and 55 % sand). Sedgeland soils had a much lower bulk density and a significantly lower concentration and capital of most plant nutrients (except C, N and S) in the rootzone. Ordinations of both soil and rocks in the profiles discriminated the Sedgeland and Forest, with the Scrub being intermediate. In winter, water tables were higher in Sedgeland than Forest and Scrub. However, Sedgeland has a drier microclimate, which makes its fine fuels available to burn more frequently and for a longer period over the summer compared with Forest. This was confirmed by radiocarbon dating of soil charcoal, which showed that fire was a regular feature of this environment throughout the Holocene. The strong edaphic differentiation of Sedgeland-Forest boundaries at Blakes Opening calls into question a prominent theory that vegetation patterns in this region are shaped primarily by landscape fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the Austral spring and summer of 2019/20 > 7 million ha of Eucalyptus forest and woodland, including some of Australia's most carbon dense ecosystems, were burnt on the east coast of Australia. We estimated bootstrapped mean CO2 emissions of c. 0.67 Pg, with other available estimates ranging from 0.55 to 0.85 Pg. Eucalyptus forests are renowned for their ability to resist and recover from wildfire so it would be expected that emitted CO2 will be reabsorbed. The combination of drought and frequent fires is likely reducing the capacity to recover from the fire so future Australian forests may store less carbon. Broadscale prescribed burning is a widely promoted approach to reduce uncontrolled wildfires, yet the benefits for the management of carbon stores are controversial. Prescribed burning can reduce carbon losses from subsequent wildfire, yet the "carbon costs" of it may equal or outweigh the "carbon benefits" in reduced wildfire emissions. Likewise, mechanical thinning of vegetation to reduce fuel loads also carries heavy carbon costs with uncertain carbon benefits. Research involving empirical measurements, modelling and a mix of large‐scale management intervention is urgently required to determine what interventions can maximise carbon storage in the face of climate change‐driven fires. In this Invited Review, we briefly describe the geographic scale of the 2019/20 Australian Black Summer Fires and undertake a quasi‐estimate of CO2 emissions from these fires. Although it is assumed the CO2 will be reabsorbed by post‐fire regrowth, we review evidence that this may not be the case because of climate change. We consider possible management interventions to reduce carbon losses from fires and reflect on the carbon costs and benefits of these management approaches. We conclude by highlighting the need for a much better understanding of fire‐driven carbon dynamics in Australian Eucalyptus forests to underpin future management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alternative stable-state theory (ASS) is widely accepted as explaining landscape-level vegetation dynamics, such as switches between forest and grassland. This theory argues that webs of feedbacks stabilise vegetation composition and structure, and that abrupt state shifts can occur if stabilising feedbacks are weakened. However, it is difficult to identify stabilising feedback loops and the disturbance thresholds beyond which state changes occur. Here, we argue that doing this requires a synthetic approach blending observation, experimentation, simulation, conceptual models, and narratives. Using forest boundaries and large mammal extinctions, we illustrate how a multifaceted research program can advance understanding of feedback-driven ecosystem change. Our integrative approach has applicability to other complex macroecological systems controlled by numerous feedbacks where controlled experimentation is impossible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large trees are critical components of forest ecosystems, but are declining in many forests worldwide. We predicted that growth of large trees is more vulnerable than that of small trees to high temperatures, because respiration and tissue maintenance costs increase with temperature more rapidly than does photosynthesis and these costs may be disproportionately greater in large trees. Using 5 00 000 measurements of eucalypt growth across temperate Australia, we found that high temperatures do appear to impose a larger growth penalty on large trees than on small ones. Average stem diameter growth rates at 21 °C compared with 11 °C mean annual temperature were 57% lower for large trees (58 cm stem diameter), but only 29% lower for small trees (18 cm diameter). While our results are consistent with an impaired carbon budget for large trees at warmer sites, we cannot discount causes such as hydraulic stress. We conclude that slower growth rates will impede recovery from extreme events, exacerbating the effects of higher temperatures, increased drought stress and more frequent fire on the tall eucalypt forests of southern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is an ancient influence on the Earth system, affecting biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems. Humans have had a profound influence on global fire activity through setting and controlling fires, modifying the flammability of landscapes, and, more recently, changing the climate through the combustion of fossil fuels. We review this web of complex direct and indirect effects of fire on Earth using the framework provided by the emerging discipline of pyrogeography that unites biological, atmospheric, and social perspectives on fire. We describe the transition from fire activity before humans evolved, through the hunter-gatherer and agricultural phases, to the current period in Earth history dominated by industrialization (Anthropocene). We illustrate how pyrogeography provides the necessary framework to understand fire in the Anthropocene, including the management of pyrogenic emissions, protection of human life, conservation of biodiversity, and provision of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pricing greenhouse gas emissions is a burgeoning and possibly lucrative financial means for climate change mitigation. Emissions pricing is being used to fund emissions-abatement technologies and to modify land management to improve carbon sequestration and retention. Here we discuss the principal land-management options under existing and realistic future emissions-price legislation in Australia, and examine them with respect to their anticipated direct and indirect effects on biodiversity. The main ways in which emissions price-driven changes to land management can affect biodiversity are through policies and practices for (1) environmental plantings for carbon sequestration, (2) native regrowth, (3) fire management, (4) forestry, (5) agricultural practices (including cropping and grazing), and (6) feral animal control. While most land-management options available to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions offer clear advantages to increase the viability of native biodiversity, we describe several caveats regarding potentially negative outcomes, and outline components that need to be considered if biodiversity is also to benefit from the new carbon economy. Carbon plantings will only have real biodiversity value if they comprise appropriate native tree species and provide suitable habitats and resources for valued fauna. Such plantings also risk severely altering local hydrology and reducing water availability. Management of regrowth post-agricultural abandonment requires setting appropriate baselines and allowing for thinning in certain circumstances, and improvements to forestry rotation lengths would likely increase carbon-retention capacity and biodiversity value. Prescribed burning to reduce the frequency of high-intensity wildfires in northern Australia is being used as a tool to increase carbon retention. Fire management in southern Australia is not readily amenable for maximising carbon storage potential, but will become increasingly important for biodiversity conservation as the climate warms. Carbon price-based modifications to agriculture that would benefit biodiversity include reductions in tillage frequency and livestock densities, reductions in fertiliser use, and retention and regeneration of native shrubs; however, anticipated shifts to exotic perennial grass species such as buffel grass and kikuyu could have net negative implications for native biodiversity. Finally, it is unlikely that major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions arising from feral animal control are possible, even though reduced densities of feral herbivores will benefit Australian biodiversity greatly. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Tree biomass influences biogeochemical cycles, climate, and biodiversity across local to global scales. Understanding the environmental control of tree biomass demands consideration of the drivers of individual tree growth over their lifespan. This can be achieved by studies of tree growth in permanent sample plots (prospective studies) and tree ring analyses (retrospective studies). However, identification of growth trends and attribution of their drivers demands statistical control of the axiomatic co-variation of tree size and age, and avoiding sampling biases at the stand, forest, and regional scales. Tracking and predicting the effects of environmental change on tree biomass requires well-designed studies that address the issues that we have reviewed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 748-758 Abstract Forest and savanna biomes dominate the tropics, yet factors controlling their distribution remain poorly understood. Climate is clearly important, but extensive savannas in some high rainfall areas suggest a decoupling of climate and vegetation. In some situations edaphic factors are important, with forest often associated with high nutrient availability. Fire also plays a key role in limiting forest, with fire exclusion often causing a switch from savanna to forest. These observations can be captured by a broad conceptual model with two components: (1) forest and savanna are alternative stable states, maintained by tree cover-fire feedbacks, (2) the interaction between tree growth rates and fire frequency limits forest development; any factor that increases growth (e.g. elevated availability of water, nutrients, CO2), or decreases fire frequency, will favour canopy closure. This model is consistent with the range of environmental variables correlated with forest distribution, and with the current trend of forest expansion, likely driven by increasing CO2 concentrations. Resolving the drivers of forest and savanna distribution has moved beyond simple correlative studies that are unlikely to establish ultimate causation. Experiments using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, parameterised with measurements from each continent, provide an important tool for understanding the controls of these systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The stable carbon isotopic composition (expressed as δ13C) of herbivore remains is commonly used to reconstruct past changes in the relative abundance of C4 versus C3 grass biomass (C4 relative abundance). However, the strength of the relationship between herbivore δ13C and C4 relative abundance in extant ecosystems has not been thoroughly examined. We determined sources of variation in δ13C of bone collagen and tooth enamel of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) collected throughout Australia by measuring δ13C of bone collagen (779 individuals) and tooth enamel (694 individuals). An index of seasonal water availability, i.e. the distribution of rainfall in the C4 versus C3 growing seasons, was used as a proxy for C4 relative abundance, and this variable explained a large proportion of the variation in both collagen δ13C (68%) and enamel δ13C (68%). These figures increased to 78% and 77%, respectively, when differences between kangaroo species were accounted for. Vegetation characteristics, such as woodiness and the presence of an open forest canopy, had no effect on collagen or enamel δ13C. While there was no relationship between collagen δ13C and kangaroo age at death, tooth enamel produced later in life, following weaning, was enriched in 13C by 3.5‰ relative to enamel produced prior to weaning. From the observed relationships between seasonal water availability and collagen and enamel δ13C, enrichment factors (ε ∗) for collagen-diet and enamel-diet (post-weaning) were estimated to be 5.2‰±0.5 (95% CI) and 11.7‰±0.6 (95% CI), respectively. The findings of this study confirm that at a continental scale, collagen and enamel δ13C of a group of large herbivores closely reflect C4 relative abundance. This validates a fundamental assumption underpinning the use of isotopic analysis of herbivore remains to reconstruct changes in C4 relative abundance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Monsoon rainforest is a key habitat in sustaining the natural and cultural values for which Kakadu National Park is World Heritage listed. The integrity of monsoon rainforest boundaries was thought to have been threatened by an increase in fire and feral animal disturbance over the last few decades. However, as no broad-scale assessment of rainforest boundary change had been undertaken, the rate and even direction of boundary change remained uncertain. In this study changes to the boundaries of 50 monsoon rainforest patches were assessed using temporal sequences of digitised aerial photography, with a view to understanding the relative importance of the drivers of change. Boundaries were compared for each of the years 1964, 1984, 1991 and 2004. Vegetation types were manually classified for each year with a 20×20m point lattice, based primarily on the distance between tree crowns. Transition matrices, size-class distributions and fragmentation indices were calculated. Field samples of a subset of 30 rainforest patches supported the accuracy of the GIS-based mapping of rainforest boundaries. Rainforest patches increased in size between 1964 and 2004 by an average of 28.8%, with an average area increase of 4.0ha. The expansion is likely to have been primarily driven by increases in variables such as rainfall and atmospheric CO2, but has been strongly mediated by fire regime. This project has provided land managers with an appreciation of the extent and causes of landscape-scale changes to rainforest boundaries. This will contribute to ‘adaptive management’ programs, especially with respect to fire management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Georeferenced digital aerial photographs were used to assess changes in overstorey vegetation cover since 1948 in the Victoria River District, Northern Territory, Australia, across a range of lowland tropical savanna habitats and with explicit consideration of known and variable site-specific grazing and fire management histories. Vegetation surveys at corresponding locations on the ground identified five distinct woody vegetation communities defined primarily by water drainage and secondarily by soil characteristics. Air-photo analyses revealed that, contrary to popular perceptions and in contrast to results from other habitats, there has been no generalized net increase in overstorey woody vegetation cover across the full range of lowland savanna habitats. Rather, different habitats exhibited distinctly different vegetation change mechanisms: low-lying seasonally inundated‘wet’ habitats have experienced woody vegetation increase since 1948, whereas well-drained‘dry’ habitats have experienced overstorey vegetation stability or loss. In almost every instance woody vegetation increase could be attributed to the invasion or proliferation of a single species,Melaleuca minutifoliaF.Muell. The extent ofM. minutifoliaincrease was unrelated to historical grazing/fire regime. Demographic analyses for this species revealed that recruitment was often episodic and that synchronized recruitment events occurred uniformly across the full range of historical management treatments, most likely as a consequence of favourable climatic conditions in years with an extended wet season. Heavy grazing facilitated juvenile survival and/or recruitment, most likely by reducing grassy fuel loads and eliminating landscape fire. We conclude that while there has been no generalized net increase in overstorey woody vegetation cover in lowland environments, savanna dynamics are complex, and multiple change mechanisms have occurred simultaneously in different habitats, some of which have been significantly transformed since 1948. Where net woody vegetation increase has occurred it is primarily a natural consequence of episodicM. minutifoliaestablishment in climatically favourable years, but the extent and magnitude of this effect is likely mediated by fire/grazing regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated, using meta-analysis of empirical data and population modelling, plausible scenarios for the cause of late Pleistocene global mammal extinctions. We also considered the rate at which these extinctions may have occurred, providing a test of the so-called ‘blitzkrieg’ hypothesis, which postulates a rapid, anthropogenically driven, extinction event. The empirical foundation for this work was a comprehensive data base of estimated body masses of mammals, comprising 198 extinct and 433 surviving species > 5 kg, which we compiled through an extensive literature search. We used mechanistic population modelling to simulate the role of human hunting efficiency, meat off-take, relative naivety of prey to invading humans, variation in reproductive fitness of prey and deterioration of habitat quality (due to either anthropogenic landscape burning or climate change), and explored the capacity of different modelling scenarios to recover the observed empirical relationship between body mass and extinction proneness. For the best-fitting scenarios, we calculated the rate at which the extinction event would have occurred. All of the modelling was based on sampling randomly from a plausible range of parameters (and their interactions), which affect human and animal population demographics. Our analyses of the empirical data base revealed that the relationship between body mass and extinction risk relationship increases continuously from small- to large-sized animals, with no clear ‘megafaunal’ threshold. A logistic ancova model incorporating body mass and geography (continent) explains 92% of the variation in the observed extinctions. Population modelling demonstrates that there were many plausible mechanistic scenarios capable of reproducing the empirical body mass–extinction risk relationship, such as specific targeting of large animals by humans, or various combinations of habitat change and opportunistic hunting. Yet, given the current imperfect knowledge base, it is equally impossible to use modelling to isolate definitively any single scenario to explain the observed extinctions. However, one universal prediction, which applied in all scenarios in which the empirical distribution was correctly predicted, was for the extinctions to be rapid following human arrival and for surviving fauna to be suppressed below their pre-‘blitzkrieg’ densities. In sum, human colonization in the late Pleistocene almost certainly triggered a ‘blitzkrieg’ of the ‘megafauna’, but the operational details remain elusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions has been advanced recently by the application of simulation models and new developments in geochronological dating. Together these have been used to posit a rapid demise of megafauna due to over-hunting by invading humans. However, we demonstrate that the results of these extinction models are highly sensitive to implicit assumptions concerning the degree of prey naivety to human hunters. In addition, we show that in Greater Australia, where the extinctions occurred well before the end of the last Ice Age (unlike the North American situation), estimates of the duration of coexistence between humans and megafauna remain imprecise. Contrary to recent claims, the existing data do not prove the "blitzkrieg" model of overkill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nganabbarru, or water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis), is frequently hunted by Aboriginal men, and buffalo meat is an important food source for many Arnhem Land Aboriginal communities. The experience of buffalo hunting trips with Aboriginal men who reside at Korlohbidahdah outstation in central Arnhem Land is used as a point of departure to consider the relationships between Aboriginal people and megaherbivores in the past and the present, and to explore the complexity of feral animal management in cross-cultural settings. This enquiry raised the question of the cultural conception of feral animals and demonstrates that there is no simple answer to the question: what is a buffalo? Buffaloes have been the focus of a colonial economic industry and are iconic of the Territorian way of life. However, they spread economically significant livestock diseases and cause widespread environmental damage. In the 1980s feral buffalo populations were the target of the Brucellosis and Tuberculosis Eradication Campaign (BTEC) control program. The failure to continue control programs following the cessation of BTEC program and inadequate consultation with Aboriginal landowners has meant that today's land managers are once again faced with conflicting views about controlling feral buffalo populations on Aboriginal land and within National Parks like Kakadu. It is concluded that there are genuine, previously overlooked opportunities for cross-cultural collaboration in managing feral buffaloes. Cross-disciplinary research involving ecologists, anthropologists, linguists, economists and environmental historians is required to help develop sustainable and culturally appropriate feral animal control programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape fires are an integral component of the Earth system and a feature of prehistoric, subsistence, and industrial economies. Specific spatiotemporal patterns of landscape fire occur in different locations around the world, shaped by the interactions between environmental and human drivers of fire activity. Seven distinct types of landscape fire emerge from these interactions: remote area fires, wildfire disasters, savanna fires, Indigenous burning, prescribed burning, agricultural burning, and deforestation fires. All can have substantial impacts on human health and well-being directly and indirectly through (a) exposure to heat flux (e.g., injuries and destructive impacts), (b) emissions (e.g., smoke-related health impacts), and (c) altered ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity, amenity, water quality, and climate impacts). Minimizing the adverse effects of landscape fires on population health requires understanding how human and environmental influences on fire impacts can be modified through interventions targeted at individual, community, and regional levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activity and climate change are altering natural rates and intensities of wildfire, but the scale and extent of burning prior to the modern era are poorly understood. Paleofire activity may be reconstructed using a variety of records (e.g., charcoal in lake sediments, burn scars on tree rings), but these are not available in all environmental settings. Here we investigate the utility of a novel paleofire proxy: trace pyrogenic organic compounds in stalagmites. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are linked to burning of biomass and are transported downward through soil and bedrock by infiltrating rainwater and incorporated into stalagmites in underlying caves where they are preserved. In order to test links between the stalagmite PAHs and fire above the cave, we performed a series of experiments using PAH distributions at KNI-51, a shallow cave located in tropical Western Australia, where bushfire is a regular occurrence. First, the possibility of surface contamination was evaluated by measuring PAH abundances and distributions in sequential digestions and by considering other possible additional sources, such as regional oil and gas fields or proximal combustion of fossil fuels. Second, PAHs were measured in soils above the cave and in sediments from the stalagmite chamber floor as possible sources of these organic compounds, and at near annual resolution in three aragonite stalagmites to evaluate the degree of deposition and conservation. Third, possible non-pyrogenic sources of organic compounds were evaluated through alkane distribution and specific m / z ratios. Fourth, signal replication of PAHs was tested in two coeval stalagmites. Fifth, satellite-mapped fire scars were used to examine the relationship between stalagmite PAH abundances and proximity of burning to the cave. The results support the hypothesis that PAHs in KNI-51 stalagmite carbonate reflect paleofire activity within 3 km of the cave, and thus that stalagmites can serve as an important new high resolution proxy for landscape-scale fire activity. Given that karst is present in many fire-prone environments, and that stalagmites can be precisely dated and may grow continuously for millennia, the potential utility of a stalagmite-based paleofire proxy is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is an integral part of the Earth System and humans have skillfully used fire for millennia. Yet human activities are scaling up and reinforcing each other in ways that are reshaping fire patterns across the planet. We review these changes using the concept of the fire regime, which describes the timing, location, and type of fires. We then explore the consequences of fire regime changes on the biological, chemical, and physical processes that sustain life on Earth. Anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are shifting fire regimes and creating environments unlike any humanity has previously experienced. Although human exposure to extreme wildfire events is increasing, we highlight how knowledge of fire regimes can be mobilized to achieve a wide range of goals, from reducing carbon emissions to promoting biodiversity and human well-being. A fire regime perspective is critical to navigating toward a sustainable future—a better Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of sustainable, low-intensity fire regimes is a pressing global challenge given escalating risk of wildfire driven by climate change. Globally, colonialism and industrialisation have disrupted traditional fire management, such as Indigenous patch burning and silvo-pastoral practices, leading to substantial build-up of fuel and increased fire risk. The disruption of fire regimes in southeastern Tasmania has led to dense even-aged regrowth in wet forests that are prone to crown fires, and dense Allocasuarina -dominated understoreys in dry forests that burn at high intensities. Here, we investigated the effectiveness of several fire management interventions at reducing fire risk. These interventions involved prescribed burning or mechanical understorey removal techniques. We focused on wet and dry Eucalyptus -dominated sclerophyll forests on the slopes of kunanyi/Mt. Wellington in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. We modelled potential fire behaviour in these treated wet and dry forests using fire behaviour equations based on measurements of fuel load, vegetation structure, understorey microclimate and regional meteorological data. We found that (a) fuel treatments were effective in wet and dry forests in reducing fuel load, though each targeted different layers, (b) both mechanical treatments and prescribed burning resulted in slightly drier, and hence more fire prone understorey microclimate, and (c) all treatments reduced predicted subsequent fire severity by roughly 2–4 fold. Our results highlight the importance of reducing fuel loads, even though fuel treatments make forest microclimates drier, and hence fuel more flammable. Our finding of the effectiveness of mechanical treatments in lowering fire risk enables managers to reduce fuels without the risk of uncontrolled fires and smoke pollution that is associated with prescribed burning. Understanding the economic and ecological costs and benefits of mechanic treatment compared to prescribed burning requires further research. [Display omitted] • Exclusion of low-intensity fire in dry Eucalyptus forests has disrupted fire regimes. • Dense regrowth in wet Eucalyptus forests have high risk of uncontrollable wildfires. • Prescribed burning and mechanical treatments can substantially reduce fire hazard. • The effect of fuel removal outweighs the effect of a drier microclimate. • These fuel management techniques have the capacity to re-introduce low-severity fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We (Murphy et al., 2013; Clarke et al., 2015) have recently developed a framework to understand the spatial distribution of fire regimes and plant fire-response traits at large spatial scales. We integrated a range of data sources to create a continental-scale overview of Australian pyromes from which to infer pyrogeographic drivers. Gosper et al. (in press) have criticized our approach, based on our misclassification of a vegetation type (eucalypt woodland), with distinct fire regime, in the Coolgardie bioregion of Western Australia. We argue that the intention of our integrative approach was to develop and refine conceptual models of Australian pyrogeography, not to produce a predictive map of fire regimes, and certainly not to guide local-scale fire management. Like all models, continental-scale syntheses of pyromes are imperfect, yet they still represent powerful tools for understanding the drivers of the spatial distribution of fire regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian savannas lack native megaherbivores (>500 kg body mass), but since the commencement of European colonisation in the 19th century bovine livestock, such as cattle (Bos sp.) and water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis), have established large feral populations that continue to geographically expand. The largest extant native herbivores are marsupials in the family Macropodidae (henceforth 'macropods': common wallaroo, Osphranter robustus [c. 40 kg]; antilopine wallaroo, O. antilopinus [c. 35 kg] and agile wallaby, Notamacropus agilis [c. 20 kg]). These species occur at low densities, with evidence that some species are in decline, the cause of which remains uncertain. We tested the hypothesis that bovines and macropods compete for nutritious forage in the North Kimberley, Western Australia by using carbon isotope analysis of feral cattle and native macropod dung (as a proxy for the relative contribution of C4 grass to their diet) and nutrient analysis of standing herbaceous biomass. Grass consumption varied between macropod species and was highest in larger wallaroo species and lowest in the smaller agile wallaby reflecting its broader diet. Grass consumption by wallaroos was maximal on fertile sites. The relative abundance of grass in the diet of cattle was lowest in the middle of the dry season with an interaction between fire and substrate fertility where grass consumption was highest on fertile sites, particularly those recently burnt. Grass consumption by cattle and wallaroos was negatively correlated with fibre content of live biomass, which was lowest on fertile and burnt sites. Introduced bovines shift their diets to non‐grasses as quality of herbaceous biomass declines with increasing fibre content, and by contrast, the largest macropod herbivores do not have this dietary flexibility. We conclude a plausible mechanism for the success of bovines and the decline of large macropods in Australian savannas is competition for nutritious grass that is abundant immediately after fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest fire smoke is a growing public health concern as more intense and frequent fires are expected under climate change. Remote sensing is a promising tool for exposure assessment, but its utility for health studies is limited because most products measure pollutants in the total column of the atmosphere, and not the surface concentrations most relevant to population health. Information about the vertical distribution of smoke is vital for addressing this limitation. The CALIPSO satellite can provide such information but it cannot cover all smoke events due to its narrow ground track. In this study, we developed a random forests model to predict the minimum height of the smoke layer observed by CALIPSO at high temporal and spatial resolution, using information about fire activity in the vicinity, geographic location, and meteorological conditions. These pieces of information are typically available in near-real-time, ensuring that the resulting model can be easily operationalized. A total of 15,617 CALIPSO data blocks were identified as impacted by smoke within the province of British Columbia, Canada from 2006 to 2015, and 52.1% had smoke within the boundary layer, where the population might be exposed. The final model explained 82.1% of the variance in the observations with a root mean squared error of 560 m. The most important variables in the model were wind patterns, the month of smoke observation, and fire intensity within 500 km. Predictions from this model can be 1) directly applied to smoke detection from the existing remote sensing products to provide another dimension of information; 2) incorporated into statistical smoke models with inputs from remote sensing products; or 3) used to inform estimates of vertical dispersion in deterministic smoke models. These potential applications are expected to improve the assessment of ground-level population exposure to forest fire smoke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximising the spatiotemporal variability of prescribed fire (i.e. pyrodiversity) is often thought to benefit biodiversity. However, given mixed empirical support, the generality of the pyrodiversity hypothesis remains questionable. Here, we use a simulation experiment to explore the effects of spatiotemporal fire patterns on the population trajectories of four mammal species in a northern Australian savanna: northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), northern brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula arnhemensis), grassland melomys (Melomys burtoni), and northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Underpinned by data from a landscape-scale fire experiment, we simulated mammal population trajectories under three scenarios of fire size (ambient, small/dispersed fires, large/clumped fires) and three levels of dispersal ability (low, moderate, high) over a 21-year period across the Kapalga area of Kakadu National Park. The simulated population size of all four species declined markedly, regardless of fire spatial pattern and dispersal ability. However, the predicted final population size (i.e. number of individuals in the final timestep of the simulation) for the northern brown bandicoot, northern brushtail possum and grassland melomys were significantly influenced by fire size, with declines most severe under the small/dispersed fire scenario. Our results suggest that maximising the dispersion of small fires at the expense of disturbance refugia (such as less-frequently burnt areas) may exacerbate the severity of mammal decline. This highlights the importance of considering trade-offs between spatial (i.e. fire dispersion) and temporal (i.e. fire frequency) aspects of pyrodiversity, and the potential risks when applying fire management for biodiversity conservation without a firm understanding of the requirements of the target species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To detect changes in area and vegetation dynamics of monsoon rain forests in relation to disturbance and an observed wetting trend. Location The Mitchell Plateau and the Bougainville Peninsula (north Kimberley, Australia). Methods Geo-rectified aerial photographs acquired in 1949 and 1969 and a pre-existing map from 2005 were used to detect changes in rain forest boundaries. To ground-truth rain forest expansion, we established 20 transects running across rain forest-savanna boundaries and recorded plant species, stand basal area, grass and rock cover, cattle impact, and canopy cover. Generalised linear models and Akaike's information criterion were used to detect differences in these variables between locations. Results On the Bougainville Peninsula average fire frequency was low (0.11 per year) and cattle entirely absent, while on the Mitchell Plateau average fire frequency was high (0.58 per year), and cattle were common and associated with lower seedling density in savannas. Rain forests expanded more on the Bougainville Peninsula (69%), where patches were bigger and more convoluted, than on the Mitchell Plateau (9%). Rain forest expansion was positively associated with rainfall and topographic complexity, and on level terrain it occurred only on the Bougainville Peninsula. Rain forests were floristically and structurally similar in the two locations, while savannas on the Bougainville Peninsula had denser vegetation and more abundant rain forest elements. The frequency distribution of canopy cover was bimodal on the Mitchell Plateau, signalling the presence of two distinct vegetation states, and unimodal on the Bougainville Peninsula, consistent with the blending of the two states. Main conclusions Wetting trends are likely strong drivers of rain forest expansion, but at a landscape scale their effect is probably modulated by fire activity and the presence of mega-herbivores, which may also be pivotal in maintaining sharp floristic and structural distinctions between rain forests and savannas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New Caledonia is a global biodiversity hotspot and an epicentre for Gondwanan conifers, many of which are threatened by mining and by altered fire regimes. We studied the distribution, abundance and demography of the endangered Callitris sulcata . The largest populations are restricted to one river system in the south-east of the island, with satellite populations in adjoining rivers. The local distribution is controlled by the fire protection afforded by terrain features such as scree slopes, creeklines and small cliffs. Adult trees, which have comparatively thick bark, are able to tolerate and recover from infrequent surface fires, but severe fires kill trees and the seeds they store, a pattern similar to that in many Australian Callitris species. Radiocarbon dating revealed the species is slower growing than Australian Callitris species, possibly due to the extreme infertility of the ultramafic soils. The species is of high cultural value to the indigenous population who also prizes the durable and aromatic timber, and harvests have been traditionally regulated. Illegal cutting of trees has become a problem, but uncontrolled fires, which have caused substantial population declines, dwarf this threat. Given these threats, conservation of the species hinges on ensuring some populations remain remote and rarely visited by humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Athrotaxis cupressoides is a slow-growing and long-lived conifer that occurs in the subalpine temperate forests of Tasmania, a continental island to the south of Australia. In 1960-1961, human-ignited wildfires occurred during an extremely dry summer that killed many A. cupressoides stands on the high plateau in the center of Tasmania. That fire year, coupled with subsequent regeneration failure, caused a loss of ca. 10% of the geographic extent of this endemic Tasmanian forest type. To provide historical context for these large-scale fire events, we (i) collected dendroecological, floristic, and structural data, (ii) documented the postfire survival and regeneration of A. cupressoides and co-occurring understory species, and (iii) assessed postfire understory plant community composition and flammability. We found that fire frequency did not vary following the arrival of European settlers, and that A. cupressoides populations were able to persist under a regime of low-to-mid severity fires prior to the 1960 fires. Our data indicate that the 1960 fires were (i) of greater severity than previous fires, (ii) herbivory by native marsupials may limit seedling survival in both burned and unburned A. cupressoides stands, and (iii) the loss of A. cupressoides populations is largely irreversible given the relatively high fuel loads of postfire vegetation communities that are dominated by resprouting shrubs. We suggest that the feedback between regeneration failure and increased flammability will be further exacerbated by a warmer and drier climate causing A. cupressoides to contract to the most fire-proof landscape settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Eighteen of the 34 species of the fan palm genus Livistona (Arecaceae) are restricted to Australia and southern New Guinea, east of Wallace’s Line, an ancient biogeographic boundary between the former supercontinents Laurasia and Gondwana. The remaining species extend from SE Asia to Africa, west of Wallace’s Line. Competing hypotheses contend that Livistona is (a) ancient, its current distribution a relict of the supercontinents, or (b) a Miocene immigrant from the north into Australia as it drifted towards Asia. We have tested these hypotheses using Bayesian and penalized likelihood molecular dating based on 4Kb of nuclear and chloroplast DNA sequences with multiple fossil calibration points. Ancestral areas and biomes were reconstructed using parsimony and maximum likelihood. We found strong support for the second hypothesis, that a single Livistona ancestor colonized Australia from the north about 10–17Ma. Spread and diversification of the genus within Australia was likely favoured by a transition from the aseasonal wet to monsoonal biome, to which it could have been preadapted by fire-tolerance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In northern Australia, the debris-feeding termite Amitermes laurensis builds tall, wedge-shaped mounds in the northern part of Cape York Peninsula and Arnhem Land, where their habitats are seasonally flooded, and small dome shaped mounds in the southeastern part of Cape York Peninsula, where their habitats are well-drained. Phylogeographic analyses were conducted in 238 individuals from 30 populations using the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II (COII) gene. DNA sequences of 50 haplotypes were used to construct NJ, MP and ML trees. Phylogenetic trees for 16 Amitermes species showed monophyly of A. laurensis and the variation of A. laurensis mounds did not strongly correspond to the intraspecific phylogeny. It was observed that mounds with the same shape were constructed by phylogenetically different groups under similar environmental conditions and different mounds shapes were built by phylogenetically closely related groups under the different environmental conditions. Thus, phylogenetically close groups of A. laurensis, in different habitats, may adapt to environmental conditions by constructing different mound shapes. We also investigated the phylogeographic structure of A. laurensis. The significant positive correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated isolation by distance, reflecting restricted dispersal ability of alates. Although the overall genetic structure of A. laurensis showed isolation by distance, we also identified two exceptions: (i) secondary contacts of genetically divergent lineages in southern Cape York Peninsula, and (ii) low genetic differences between geographically separated populations of Cape York Peninsula and Arnhem Land. Therefore, the phylogeography of A. laurensis may reflect continuous gene flow restricted to short distances and past changes of gene flow associated with the fluctuation of environmental conditions accompanying the changing sea levels in the Quaternary. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Asthma and allergic rhinitis (or hay fever) are ubiquitous, chronic health conditions that seasonally affect a sizeable proportion of the population. Both are commonly triggered or exacerbated by environmental conditions including aeroallergens, air quality and weather. Smartphone technology offers new opportunities to identify environmental drivers by allowing large-scale, real-time collection of day-to-day symptoms. As yet, however, few studies have explored the potential of this technology to provide useful epidemiological data on environment-symptom relationships. Here, we use data from the smartphone app 'AirRater' to examine relationships between asthma and allergic rhinitis symptoms and weather, air quality and pollen loads in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. We draw on symptom data logged by app users over a three-year period and use time-series analysis to assess the relationship between symptoms and environmental co-variates. Symptoms are associated with particulate matter (IRR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.08), maximum temperature (IRR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.13–1.44) and pollen taxa including Betula (IRR 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02–1.07), Cupressaceae (IRR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04), Myrtaceae (IRR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.10) and Poaceae (IRR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01–1.09). The importance of these pollen taxa varies seasonally and more taxa are associated with allergic rhinitis (eye/nose) than asthma (lung) symptoms. Our results are congruent with established epidemiological evidence, while providing important local insights including the association between symptoms and Myrtaceae pollen. We conclude that smartphone-sourced data can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiology. • In Tasmania, Australia, the AirRater smartphone app collects respiratory symptoms. • Particulate matter is associated with app-user reported symptoms all year round. • Maximum temperature is associated with symptoms during the warmer months. • Australian native pollen taxa are seasonally associated with app-reported respiratory symptoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]