Search

The abundance of large marine dinoflagellates has declined in the North Sea since 1958. Although hypotheses have been proposed to explain this diminution (increasing temperature and wind), the mechanisms behind this pattern have thus far remained elusive. In this article, we study the long‐term changes in dinoflagellate biomass and biodiversity in relation to hydro‐climatic conditions and circulation within the North Atlantic. Our results show that the decline in biomass has paralleled an increase in biodiversity caused by a temperature‐induced northward movement of subtropical taxa along the European shelf‐edge, and facilitated by changes in oceanic circulation (subpolar gyre contraction). However, major changes in North Atlantic hydrodynamics in the 2010s (subpolar gyre expansion and low‐salinity anomaly) stopped this movement, which triggered a biodiversity collapse in the North Sea. Further, North Sea dinoflagellate biomass remained low because of warming. Our results, therefore, reveal that regional climate warming and changes in oceanic circulation strongly influenced shifts in dinoflagellate biomass and biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant phenological shifts induced by climate change are projected within the phytoplankton community. However, projections from current Earth System Models (ESMs) understandably rely on simplified community responses that do not consider evolutionary strategies manifested as various phenotypes and trait groups. Here, we use a species‐based modelling approach, combined with large‐scale plankton observations, to investigate past, contemporary and future phenological shifts in diatoms (grouped by their morphological traits) and dinoflagellates in three key areas of the North Atlantic Ocean (North Sea, North‐East Atlantic and Labrador Sea) from 1850 to 2100. Our study reveals that the three phytoplanktonic groups exhibit coherent and different shifts in phenology and abundance throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. The seasonal duration of large flattened (i.e. oblate) diatoms is predicted to shrink and their abundance to decline, whereas the phenology of slow‐sinking elongated (i.e. prolate) diatoms and of dinoflagellates is expected to expand and their abundance to rise, which may alter carbon export in this important sink region. The increase in prolates and dinoflagellates, two groups currently not considered in ESMs, may alleviate the negative influence of global climate change on oblates, which are responsible of massive peaks of biomass and carbon export in spring. We suggest that including prolates and dinoflagellates in models may improve our understanding of the influence of global climate change on the biological carbon cycle in the oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Among such questions as the origin of the universe or the biological bases of consciousness, understanding the origin and arrangement of planetary biodiversity is one of the 25 most important scientific enigmas according to the American journal Science (2005). This review presents a recent theory called the 'macroecological theory on the arrangement of life' (METAL). METAL proposes that biodiversity is strongly influenced by the climate and the environment in a deterministic manner. This influence mainly occurs through the interactions between the environment and the ecological niche of species sensu Hutchinson (i.e., the range of species tolerance when several factors are taken simultaneously). The use of METAL in the context of global change biology has been presented elsewhere. In this review, I explain how the niche–environment interaction generates a mathematical constraint on the arrangement of biodiversity, a constraint called the great chessboard of life. The theory explains (i) why biodiversity is generally higher toward low-latitude regions, (ii) why biodiversity peaks at the equator in the terrestrial realm and why it peaks at mid-latitudes in the oceans, and finally (iii) why there are more terrestrial than marine species, despite the fact that life first appeared in the marine environment. This review presents a recent theory named 'macroecological theory on the arrangement of life' (METAL). This theory is based on the concept of the ecological niche and shows that the niche-environment (including climate) interaction is fundamental to explain many phenomena observed in nature from the individual to the community level (e.g., phenology, biogeographical shifts, and community arrangement and reorganisation, gradual or abrupt). The application of the theory in climate change biology as well as individual and species ecology has been presented elsewhere. In this review, I show how METAL explains why there are more species at low than high latitudes, why the peak of biodiversity is located at mid-latitudes in the oceanic domain and at the equator in the terrestrial domain, and finally why there are more terrestrial than marine species, despite the fact that biodiversity has emerged in the oceans. I postulate that the arrangement of planetary biodiversity is mathematically constrained, a constraint we previously called 'the great chessboard of life', which determines the maximum number of species that may colonise a given region or domain. This theory also makes it possible to reconstruct past biodiversity and understand how biodiversity could be reorganised in the context of anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative influence of fishing and Climate-Induced Environmental Change (CIEC) on long-term fluctuations in exploited fish stocks has been controversial1–3 because separating their contributions is difficult for two reasons. Firstly, there is in general, no estimation of CIEC for a pre-fishing period and secondly, the assessment of the effects of fishing on stocks has taken place at the same time as CIEC4. Here, we describe a new model we have called FishClim that we apply to North Sea cod from 1963 to 2019 to estimate how fishing and CIEC interact and how they both may affect stocks in the future (2020-2100) using CMIP6 scenarios5. The FishClim model shows that both fishing and CIEC are intertwined and can either act synergistically (e.g. the 2000-2007 collapse) or antagonistically (e.g. second phase of the gadoid outburst). Failure to monitor CIEC, so that fisheries management immediately adjusts fishing effort in response to environmentally-driven shifts in stock productivity, will therefore create a deleterious response lag that may cause the stock to collapse. We found that during 1963-2019, although the effect of fishing and CIEC drivers fluctuated annually, the pooled influence of fishing and CIEC on the North Sea cod stock was nearly equal at ~55 and ~45%, respectively. Consequently, the application of FishClim, which quantifies precisely the respective influence of fishing and climate, will help to develop better strategies for sustainable, long-term, fish stock management. The FishClim model is presented, which quantifies the influence of fishing and climate on fisheries in order to develop strategies for sustainable, long-term, fish stock management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological niche sensu Hutchinson is defined as the set of environmental conditions allowing a species to grow, maintain, and reproduce. This conception of the niche, which is assimilated to a p‐dimensional hypervolume, with p representing all environmental variables, has been widely applied in ecology. However, displaying the niche hypervolume has proved challenging when more than three environmental dimensions are considered simultaneously. We propose a simple method (implemented in the specieschrom R package) that displays the full multidimensionality of the ecological niche of a species into a two‐dimensional space by means of a graphic we call species chromatogram. This method gives a graphical summary of the niche by representing together abundance gradients with respect to all environmental variables. A chromatogram enables niche optimums and breaths to be rapidly quantified, and when several chromatograms are examined (one per species), rapid comparisons can be made. From our chromatograms, we proposed a procedure that quantifies niche optimum and breadth as well as niche overlapping (index D) and the identification of the most discriminant combination of environmental variables. We apply these analyses on eight planktonic species collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey in the North Atlantic Ocean using 10 environmental variables. We display their full multidimensional niches and quantify their niche optimums and breadths along each dimension. We also compare our index D with other indices by means of hypervolume and dynRB R packages. By catching the full complexity of the niche, species chromatograms allow many different niche properties to be rapidly assessed and compared among species from niche optimums and breadths to the identification of the most relevant environmental parameters and the degree of niche overlapping among species. Species chromatograms may be seen as species' fingerprint and may also allow a better identification of the mechanisms involved in species assembly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual plankton succession has been investigated for many decades with hypotheses ranging from abiotic to biotic mechanisms being proposed to explain these recurrent patterns. Here, using data collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey and models originating from the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life, we investigate Annual Phytoplankton Succession (APS) in the North Sea at a species level. Our results show that this phenomenon can be predicted well by models combining photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and macro-nutrients. Our findings suggest that APS originates from the interaction between species' ecological niches and the annual environmental fluctuations at a community level. We discuss our results in the context of traditional hypotheses formulated to explain this recurrent pattern in the marine field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plankton biodiversity is a key component of marine pelagic ecosystems. They are at the base of the food web, control the productivity of marine ecosystems, and provide many provisioning and regulating ecological services. It is therefore important to understand how plankton are organized in both space and time. Here, we use data of varying taxonomic resolution, collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, to map phytoplankton and zooplankton biodiversity in the North Atlantic and its adjacent seas. We then decompose biodiversity into 24 species assemblages and investigate their spatial distribution using ecological units and ecoregions recently proposed. Finally, we propose a descriptive method, which we call the environmental chromatogram, to characterize the environmental signature of each plankton assemblage. The method is based on a graphic that identifies where species of an assemblage aggregate along an environmental gradient composed of multiple ecological dimensions. The decomposition of the biodiversity into species assemblages allows us to show (a) that most marine regions of the North Atlantic are composed of coenoclines (i.e., gradients of biocoenoses or communities) and (b) that the overlapping spatial distribution of assemblages is the result of their environmental signatures. It follows that neither the ecoregions nor the ecological units identified in the North Atlantic are characterized by a unique assemblage but instead by a mosaic of assemblages that overlap in many places. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual plankton succession has been investigated for many decades with hypotheses ranging from abiotic to biotic mechanisms being proposed to explain these recurrent patterns. Here, using data collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey and models originating from the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life, we investigate Annual Phytoplankton Succession (APS) in the North Sea at a species level. Our results show that this phenomenon can be predicted well by models combining photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and macro-nutrients. Our findings suggest that APS originates from the interaction between species' ecological niches and the annual environmental fluctuations at a community level. We discuss our results in the context of traditional hypotheses formulated to explain this recurrent pattern in the marine field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the basin-scale distribution of the Atlantic bluefin tuna which is the world's exploited fish species. It cites on the management measures of the stocks which has started to recover for the period 2017-2020. The article also discusses the effect of climatic variability which modulate the distribution of the migrating species in regional abundance.

Species richness is greater in places where the number of potential niches is high. Consequently, the niche may be fundamental for understanding the arrangement of life and especially, the establishment and maintenance of the well-known Latitudinal Biodiversity Gradient (LBG). However, not all potential niches may be occupied fully in a habitat, as measured by niche vacancy/saturation. Here, we theoretically reconstruct oceanic biodiversity and analyse modeled and observed data together to examine patterns in niche saturation (i.e. the ratio between observed and theoretical biodiversity of a given taxon) for several taxonomic groups. Our results led us to hypothesize that the arrangement of marine life is constrained by the distribution of the maximal number of species’ niches available, which represents a fundamental mathematical limit to the number of species that can co-exist locally. We liken this arrangement to a type of chessboard where each square on the board is a geographic area, itself comprising a distinct number of sub-squares (species’ niches). Each sub-square on the chessboard can accept a unique species of a given ecological guild, whose occurrence is determined by speciation/extinction. Because of the interaction between the thermal niche and changes in temperature, our study shows that the chessboard has more sub-squares at mid-latitudes and we suggest that many clades should exhibit a LBG because their probability of emergence should be higher in the tropics where more niches are available. Our work reveals that each taxonomic group has its own unique chessboard and that global niche saturation increases when organismal complexity decreases. As a result, the mathematical influence of the chessboard is likely to be more prominent for taxonomic groups with low (e.g. plankton) than great (e.g. mammals) biocomplexity. Our study therefore reveals the complex interplay between a fundamental mathematical constraint on biodiversity resulting from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and fluctuations in the environmental regime (here, temperature), which has a predictable component and a stochastic-like biological influence (diversification rates, origination and clade age) that may alter or blur the former. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As species biology and ecology is profoundly influenced by climate, any climatic alteration may have severe consequences on marine pelagic ecosystems and their food webs. It remains challenging to estimate the influence of climate on both structural and functional properties of food webs. In this study, we proposed an innovative approach to assess the propagating effects of climate change on ecosystem food web. The approach is based on a sensitivity analysis of a food-web model, a linear inverse model using a Monte Carlo method coupled with a Markov Chain , in which changes in the values of parameters are driven by external Ecological Niche Model outputs. Our sensitivity analysis was restricted to parameters regarding a keystone functional group in marine ecosystems, i.e. small pelagic fish. At the ecosystem level, the consequences were evaluated using both structural and functional ecological network indices. The approach is innovative as it is the first time that these three methods were combined to assess ecological network indices sensitivity to future climatic pressure. This coupling method was applied on the French continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay for which a food-web model already exists and where future changes in the distribution of small pelagic fish have already been examined through model building and projections. In response to the sensitivity analysis corresponding to an increase in small pelagics production only, our results suggested a more active system with an intense plankton-small pelagics-seabirds chain and an efficient recycling to maximize detritus use in the system in relation with detritus export. All results combined together seemed to be in favor of a system adapting to sustain the tested increase in production of small pelagic planktivores. Finally, regarding the innovative combination of numerical tools presented, even if further investigations are still necessary to get a more realistic view of cumulative effects resulting from one given pressure (or more) on a food web (e.g. altering different biological compartments at the same time), the Ecological Network Analysis indices values showed a higher variability under the scenarios of change. Our study thus pointed out a promising methodology to assess propagating changes in structural and functional ecosystem properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has collected plankton since 1958 in the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas. Among all species recorded by the CPR, Calanus finmarchicus has probably been the most investigated species because of its ecological importance for the temperate and subpolar regions of the North Atlantic Ocean. However, abundances of C. finmarchicus assessed from the CPR survey have been rarely compared to more traditional sampling methodologies. In this study, we examine and compare spatial (surface and vertical) and temporal (diel and seasonal) patterns in the abundance of C. finmarchicus with another sampling technique in the gulf of Maine. Our results provide evidence that the CPR survey not only gives internally consistent time series of C. finmarchicus , but also an accurate representation of both spatial (surface and vertical) and temporal (diel and seasonal) patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological Niche Models ( ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models ( GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi- GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche ( sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways ( RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between- GCM variability was greater than the between- RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi- GCM and multi- RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between- GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958-2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major challenges to understanding population changes in ecology for assessment purposes is the difficulty in evaluating the suitability of an area for a given species. Here we used a new simple approach able to faithfully predict through time the abundance of two key zooplanktonic species by focusing on the relationship between the species’ environmental preferences and their observed abundances. The approach is applied to the marine copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus as a case study characterising the multidecadal dynamics of the North Sea ecosystem. We removed all North Sea data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset and described for both species a simplified ecological niche using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and CPR Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI). We then modelled the dynamics of each species by associating the North Sea’s environmental parameters to the species’ ecological niches, thus creating a method to assess the suitability of this area. By using both C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus as indicators, the procedure reproduces the documented switches from cold to warm temperate states observed in the North Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Diatoms phenology is controlled by the niche-environment interaction resulting from changes in morphological traits. • Cell shape is a key adaptation that confers to each species a unique niche and a place in the sequence of annual succession. • As morphology influences long-term changes in abundance, current biogeochemical models should consider cell shape. Annual phytoplankton succession is a key ecological phenomenon that drives marine species' life cycles and energy flows within marine ecosystems. Identifying processes that control annual succession is critical to anticipate climate-induced environmental perturbations of this phenomenon and the consequences upon ecosystem functioning. Here, we demonstrate that diatoms in the North Sea undergo strong morphological changes throughout the year and that species with similar phenology possess comparable morphological traits (e.g. cell elongation) and ecological niches. The spring and autumn periods appear to be dominated by oblates (flattened cells) whereas the summer period is dominated by prolates (elongated cells). Elongation of the cell shape enhances buoyancy and confers a selective advantage in stratified low-nutrient waters typical of summer without changing a diatom's surface area/volume ratio or its ability to absorb nutrients. Diatom shape thus appears to have evolved as a key adaptation to a specific environment and confers upon a species its specific niche and phenology, and therefore its place in the sequence of annual succession. As a result, shape influences temporal changes in the abundance of diatoms and their putative response to environmental forcing. We suggest that biogeochemical and earth-system models should include diatom cell shape as a parameter in order to improve model predictions and help our understanding of the consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change has become a major driving force of both terrestrial and marine systems. Located at the interface between these two realms, estuarine ecosystems are probably the place where both direct and indirect effects of human activities conspire together to affect biodiversity from phytoplankton to top predators. Among European estuarine systems, the Gironde is the largest estuary of Western Europe and many studies have provided evidence that it has been affected by a variety of anthropogenic stressors such as thermal and chemical pollution, physical alterations and exploitation, especially for maritime traffic. In such a context, species introduction is also a current major issue with the establishment of strong competitive species that could lead to ecosystem reorganization with potential decrease or even disappearance of native species. In the Gironde estuary, this hypothesis was proposed for the invasive shrimp species Palaemon macrodactylus as a decrease in the native species abundance was observed at the same time. Although species introduction often takes place via ballast water, the influence of climate-driven changes on the establishment of new species remains a key issue. The calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, observed in the Gironde estuary for the first time in 1983, have since colonized most part of the estuary, reaching a level of abundance comparable to the dominant native species Eurytemora affinis. In this study, using both the concept of the ecological niche sensu Hutchinson (fundamental and realized niches) and statistical models, we reveal that the dynamics of the colonization of A. tonsa was facilitated by environmental conditions that have become closer to its environmental optimum with respect to temperature and salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Latitudinal gradients in diversity intrigue scientists, and various hypotheses have been proposed to explain why the diversity of so many taxonomic groups increases from the poles to the equator. These hypotheses range from null models to environmental factors, and biotic interactions to those that include patterns of dispersal and speciation. Here, we formulate a new theory based upon the concept of the niche sensu Hutchinson and the principle of competitive exclusion, which shows that the latitudinal diversity gradient in the marine environment may result from an interaction between the thermal tolerances of species and climatic variability. Location The global ocean. Methods We design a bioclimatic model that creates pseudospecies from strict stenotherms to large eurytherms and subsequently allows them to colonize a global ocean provided they can tolerate fluctuations in temperature. We test 74 ecologically realistic scenarios that are then correlated with observed patterns of species richness for foraminifers and copepods, two important oceanic planktonic groups. Results We found that the model accounted for 96% of the latitudinal gradient in foraminifers and 85% for copepods. Our model both reveals how patterns of biodiversity may develop, and suggests why some taxonomic groups appear not to follow the general pattern. While climate ultimately selected species that could establish in any given habitat, we saw a strong mid-domain effect ( MDE) in the niche space. We believe this negates some shortcomings of the MDE that is often assumed to occur in the geographical space. Main conclusions By showing the strong effect of temperature on biodiversity and revealing how it enables the development of a planetary gradient in marine biodiversity, our results offer a way to better understand why temperature is so often positively correlated with global patterns in species richness on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beaugrand, G. and Reid, P. C. 2012. Relationships between North Atlantic salmon, plankton, and hydroclimatic change in the Northeast Atlantic – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1549–1562.The abundance of wild salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic has declined markedly since the late 1980s as a result of increased marine mortality that coincided with a marked rise in sea temperature in oceanic foraging areas. There is substantial evidence to show that temperature governs the growth, survival, and maturation of salmon during their marine migrations through either direct or indirect effects. In an earlier study (2003), long-term changes in three trophic levels (salmon, zooplankton, and phytoplankton) were shown to be correlated significantly with sea surface temperature (SST) and northern hemisphere temperature (NHT). A sequence of trophic changes ending with a stepwise decline in the total nominal catch of North Atlantic salmon (regime shift in ∼1986/1987) was superimposed on a trend to a warmer dynamic regime. Here, the earlier study is updated with catch and abundance data to 2010, confirming earlier results and detecting a new abrupt shift in ∼1996/1997. Although correlations between changes in salmon, plankton, and temperature are reinforced, the significance of the correlations is reduced because the temporal autocorrelation of time-series substantially increased due to a monotonic trend in the time-series, probably related to global warming. This effect may complicate future detection of effects of climate change on natural systems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Marine environments are greatly affected by climate change, and understanding how this perturbation affects marine vertebrates is a major issue. In this context, it is essential to identify the environmental drivers of animal distribution. Here, we focused on the little auk (Alle alle), one of the world's most numerous seabirds and a major component in Arctic food webs. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we show how little auks adopt specific migratory strategies and balance environmental constraints to optimize their energy budgets. Miniature electronic loggers indicate that after breeding, birds from East Greenland migrate >2000 km to overwinter in a restricted area off Newfoundland. Synoptic data available from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) indicate that this region harbours some of the highest densities of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus found in the North Atlantic during winter. Examination of large-scale climatic and oceanographic data suggests that little auks favour patches of high copepod abundance in areas where air temperature ranges from 0°C to 5°C. These results greatly advance our understanding of animal responses to extreme environmental constraints, and highlight that information on habitat preference is key to identifying critical areas for marine conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate-induced changes in the distribution of species are likely to affect the functioning and diversity of marine ecosystems. Therefore, in economic and ecological important areas, such as the English Channel, projections of the future distributions of key species under changing environmental conditions are urgently needed. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been applied successfully to determine potential distributions of species based on the information of the environmental niche of a species (sensu Hutchinson). In this study, the niches of two commercially exploited benthic species, Pecten maximus and Glycymeris glycymeris, and two ecologically important species, Abra alba and Ophelia borealis were derived using four contemporary hydrographic variables, i.e. sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, water depth and sediment type. Consequently, using these ecological envelopes, the Non-Parametric Probalistic Ecological Niche model (NPPEN) was applied to calculate contemporary probabilities of occurrence for each species in the North East Atlantic and to predict potential re-distributions under the climate change scenario A2 for two time periods 2050–2059 and 2090–2099. Results show general northern displacements of the four benthic species from the English Channel into the North Sea and southern Norwegian coast. The projections mostly indicate a reduction of suitable habitat for benthic species with a notable disappearance of their distributions in the English Channel, except for A. alba. However, interpretations should be treated with caution since many uncertainties and assumptions are attached to ecological niche models in general. Furthermore, opening up potential habitats for benthic species does not necessarily imply that the species will actually occupy these sites in the future. The displacement and colonisation success of species are a function of many other non-climatic factors such as species life histories, dispersal abilities, adaptability and community interactions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The pressure exerted by human activities on living systems has become so intense that it is inspiring the inception of a global network of monitoring of the biosphere and the use of robust statistical procedures to detect potential changes. Here, we propose a new multivariate non-parametric procedure, based on the Mahalanobis generalised distance and a simplification of the multiple response permutation procedure to identify rapidly changes in any natural systems. The procedure can be virtually coupled on all monitoring programmes and is not influenced by missing data, a common feature found in many ecological databases. In France, physical, chemical and biological variability of coastal waters have been monitored since 1997 by the SOMLIT Network. Applied to this data set, this technique enabled a first quantification of the impacts of human disturbance through changes in the concentration of nutrients. Our results revealed how climate may interact with anthropogenic pressure to alter coastal marine systems and suggest a synergism between nutrient enrichment, human activities and local climatic conditions. Indeed some effects of climate (e.g. insolation duration – increase in duration of daylight) may attenuate the fertility of coastal systems, while some others (e.g. precipitation) amplify the human signals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Temperature is a powerful correlate of large-scale terrestrial and marine diversity patterns but the mechanistic links remain unclear. Whilst many explanations have been proposed, quantitative predictions that allow them to be tested statistically are often lacking. As an important exception, the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) provides a rather robust technique using the relationship between diversity, temperature and metabolic rate in order to elucidate the ultimate underlying mechanisms driving large-scale diversity patterns. We tested if the MTE could explain geographic variations in marine copepod diversity on both ocean-wide and regional scales (East Japan Sea and North East Atlantic). The values of the regression slopes of diversity (ln taxonomic richness) over temperature (1/ kT) across all spatial scales were lower than the range predicted by the metabolic scaling law for species richness (i.e. −0.60 to −0.70).We therefore conclude that the MTE in its present form is not suitable for predicting marine copepod diversity patterns. These results further question the applicability of the MTE for explaining diversity patterns and, despite the relative lack of comparable studies in the marine environment, the generality of the MTE across systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calanus finmarchicus is a key-structural species of the North Atlantic polar biome. The species plays an important trophic role in subpolar and polar ecosystems as a grazer of phytoplankton and as a prey for higher trophic levels such as the larval stages of many fish species. Here, we used a recently developed ecological niche model to assess the ecological niche ( sensu Hutchinson) of C. finmarchicus and characterize its spatial distribution. This model explained about 65% of the total variance of the observed spatial distribution inferred from an independent dataset (data of the continuous plankton recorder survey). Comparisons with other types of models (structured population and ecophysiological models) revealed a clear similarity between modeled spatial distributions at the scale of the North Atlantic. Contemporary models coupled with future projections indicated a progressive reduction of the spatial habitat of the species at the southern edge and a more pronounced one in the Georges Bank, the Scotian Shelf and the North Sea and a potential increase in abundance at the northern edge of its spatial distribution, especially in the Barents Sea. These major changes will probably lead to a major alteration of the trophodynamics of North Atlantic ecosystems affecting the trophodynamics and the biological carbon pump. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many authors have suggested that the abundance of the subarctic species Calanus finmarchicus can be influenced by the structure of the water column. Unfortunately, to date, such a link has never been confirmed either experimentally or statistically. By using a macroecological approach, we investigated this hypothesis and showed that it varies with the developmental stage of the species. First, we implemented a new statistical procedure, based on an exponentially weighted moving average, to identify and quantify the depth and intensity of the thermocline. We applied the technique on 1 005 619 temperature profiles over the North Atlantic Ocean and provide a mapping of these two descriptors at a seasonal scale. Second, we studied the relationships between the depth and the intensity of the thermocline and C. finmarchicus using a biological data set of 99 599 sampling stations. Our results suggested that the characteristics of the water column influence the spatial distribution of C. finmarchicus. The frequency in the occurrence of this species decreases when stratification rises. Our results further revealed that the effect is more pronounced for young copepodite stages. Such findings are of interest, since, in a warmer world, water stratification is expected to increase, making more likely a reduction in the abundance of this key species in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although recent studies suggest that climate change may substantially accelerate the rate of species loss in the biosphere, only a few studies have focused on the potential consequences of a spatial reorganization of biodiversity with global warming. Here, we show a pronounced latitudinal increase in phytoplanktonic and zooplanktonic biodiversity in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. We also show that this rise in biodiversity paralleled a decrease in the mean size of zooplanktonic copepods and that the reorganization of the planktonic ecosystem toward dominance by smaller organisms may influence the networks in which carbon flows, with negative effects on the downward biological carbon pump and demersal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Our study suggests that, contrary to the usual interpretation of increasing biodiversity being a positive emergent property promoting the stability/resilience of ecosystems, the parallel decrease in sizes of planktonic organisms could be viewed in the North Atlantic as reducing some of the services provided by marine ecosystems to humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a few North Atlantic cod stocks are stable, none have increased and many have declined in recent years. Although overfishing is the main cause of most observed declines, this study shows that in some regions, climate by its influence on plankton may exert a strong control on cod stocks, complicating the management of this species that often assumes a constant carrying capacity. First, we investigate the likely drivers of changes in the cod stock in the North Sea by evaluating the potential relationships between climate, plankton and cod. We do this by deriving a Plankton Index that reflects the quality and quantity of plankton food available for larval cod. We show that this Plankton Index explains 46.24% of the total variance in cod recruitment and 68.89% of the variance in total cod biomass. Because the effects of climate act predominantly through plankton during the larval stage of cod development, our results indicate a pronounced sensitivity of cod stocks to climate at the warmer, southern edge of their distribution, for example in the North Sea. Our analyses also reveal for the first time, that at a large basin scale, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus is associated with a high probability of cod occurrence, whereas the genus Pseudocalanus appears less important. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) generally considers the effect of fishing on the ecosystem and not the effect of climate-induced changes in the ecosystem state for the living resources. These results suggest that EBFM must consider the position of a stock within its ecological niche, the direct effects of climate and the influence of climate on the trophodynamics of the ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is unambiguous and its effects are clearly detected in all functional units of the Earth system. This study presents new analyses of sea-surface temperature changes and show that climate change is affecting ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Changes are seen from phytoplankton to zooplankton to fish and are modifying the dominance of species and the structure, the diversity and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Changes also range from phenological to biogeographical shifts and have involved in some regions of the Atlantic abrupt ecosystem shifts. These alterations reflect a response of pelagic ecosystems to a warmer temperature regime. Mechanisms are complex because they are nonlinear exhibiting tipping points and varying in space and time. Sensitivity of organisms to temperature changes is high, implicating that a small temperature modification can have sustained ecosystem effects. Implications of these changes for biogeochemical cycles are discussed. Two observed changes detected in the North Sea that could have opposite effects on carbon cycle are discussed. Increase in phytoplankton, as inferred from the phytoplankton colour index derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, has been detected in the North Sea. This pattern has been accompanied by a reduction in the abundance of the herbivorous species Calanus finmarchicus. This might have reduced the grazing pressure and increase diatomaceous ‘fluff’, therefore carbon export in the North Sea. Therefore, it could be argued that the biological carbon pump might increase in this region with sea warming. In the meantime, however, the mean size of organisms (calanoid copepods) has dropped. Such changes have implications for the turnover time of biogenic carbon in plankton organisms and the mean residence time of particulate carbon they produce. The system characterising the warmer period is more based on recycling and less on export. The increase in the minimum turnover time indicates an increase in the ecosystem metabolism, which can be considered as a response of the pelagic ecosystems to climate warming. This phenomenon could reduce carbon export. These two opposite patterns of change are examples of the diversity of mechanisms and pathways the ecosystems may exhibit with climate change. Oversimplification of current biogeochemical models, often due to lack of data and biological understanding, could lead to wrong projection on the direction ecosystems and therefore some biogeochemical cycles might take in a warmer world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth’ functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The number of variables involved in the monitoring of an ecosystem can be high and often one of the first stages in the analysis is to reduce the number of variables. We describe a method developed for geological purposes, using the information theory, that enables selection of the most relevant variables. This technique also allows the examination of the asymmetrical relationships between variables. Applied to a set of physical and biological variables (plankton assemblages in four areas of the North Sea), the method shows that biological variables are more informative than physical variables although the controlling factors are mainly physical (sea surface temperature in winter and spring). Among biological variables, diversity measures and warm-water species assemblages are informative for the state of the North Sea pelagic ecosystems while among physical variables sea surface temperature in late winter and early spring are highly informative. Although often used in bioclimatology, the utilisation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index does not seem to provide a lot of information. The method reveals that only the extreme states of this index has an influence on North Sea pelagic ecosystems. The substantial and persistent changes that were detected in the dynamic regime of the North Sea ecosystems and called regime shift are detected by the method and corresponds to the timing of other shifts described in the literature for some European Systems such as the Baltic and the Mediterranean Sea when both physical and biological variables are considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Planktonic organisms are an important food resource of pelagic ecosystems, but they also serve as an integrator of hydroclimatic forcing. Four types of recently developed plankton indicator, based on the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, are summarized here: indicators based on individual taxa; indicators based on functional attributes of the ecosystem (diversity); species assemblage indicators; and indicators of larval fish survival. All provide information on the state of a pelagic ecosystem, but have different limitations. Therefore, their combined application provides the most accurate diagnosis of ecosystem state. In most of the examples described, statistical analyses help to identify major spatial and temporal patterns, and may allow future ecosystem changes to be anticipated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the ecosystem regime shift in the North Sea that occurred during the period 1982–1988. The evidence for the change is seen from individual species to key ecosystem parameters such as diversity and from phytoplankton to fish. Although many biological/ecosystem parameters and individual species exhibited a stepwise change during the period 1983–1988, some indicators show no evidence of change. The cause of the regime shift is likely to be related to pronounced changes in large-scale hydro-meteorological forcing. This involved activating of complex intermediate physical mechanisms which explains why the exact timing of the shift can vary from 1982 to 1988 (centred around two periods: 1982–1985 and 1987–1988) according to the species or taxonomic group. Increased sea surface temperature and possibly change in wind intensity and direction at the end of the 1970s in the west European basin triggered a change in the location of an oceanic biogeographical boundary along the European continental shelf. This affected both the stable and substrate biotope components of North Sea marine ecosystems (i.e. components related to the water masses and components which are geographically stable) circa 1984. Large-scale hydro-climatic forcing also modified local hydro-meteorological parameters around the North Sea after 1987 affecting the stable biotope components of North Sea ecosystems. Problems related to the detection and quantification of an ecosystem regime shift are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) has been overexploited in the North Sea since the late 1960s and great concern has been expressed about the decline in cod biomass and recruitment. Here we show that, in addition to the effects of overfishing, fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). Survival of larval cod is shown to depend on three key biological parameters of their prey: the mean size of prey, seasonal timing and abundance. We suggest a mechanism, involving the match/mismatch hypothesis, by which variability in temperature affects larval cod survival and conclude that rising temperature since the mid-1980s has modified the plankton ecosystem in a way that reduces the survival of young cod. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Recently, large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans have been detected in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages were found with a northward extension of more than ° in latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These changes were attributed to regional increase in sea surface temperature. Here, we have extended these studies to examine long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. We found highly significant relationships between (1) long-term changes in all three trophic levels, (2) sea surface temperature in the northeastern Atlantic, (3) Northern Hemisphere temperature and (4) the North Atlantic Oscillation. The similarities detected between plankton, salmon, temperature and hydro-climatic parameters are also seen in their cyclical variability and in a stepwise shift that started after a pronounced increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies at the end of the 1970s. All biological variables show a pronounced change which started after circa 1982 for euphausiids (decline), 1984 for the total abundance of small copepods (increase), 1986 for phytoplankton biomass (increase) and Calanus finmarchicus (decrease) and 1988 for salmon (decrease). This cascade of biological events led to an exceptional period, which is identified after 1986 to present and followed another shift in large-scale hydro-climatic variables and sea surface temperature. This regional temperature increase therefore appears to be an important parameter that is at present governing the dynamic equilibrium of northeast Atlantic pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes and fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide evidence of large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas. We demonstrate that strong biogeogrephical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with a northward extension of more than 10° latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These biogeographical shifts are in agreement with recent changes in the spatial distribution and phenology detected for many taxonomic groups in terrestrial European ecosystems and are related to both the increasing trend in Northern Hemisphere temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) plays a crucial role in shaping marine ecosystems, influencing primary production, species interaction, and phytoplankton seasonal dynamics. However, comprehensive long-term (gap-free) datasets for both surface PAR and the diffuse Attenuation Coefficient of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (K d PAR) are currently lacking. In this study, we introduce two new extensive global 4D PAR gap-free datasets (Longitude x Latitude x Day x Depth) at a resolution of 0.25o latitude x 0.25o longitude from surface to 250 m covering the periods 1998–2022 and 1958–2022. The first dataset (1998–2022) is primarily derived from Globcolour (surface PAR and Chlorophyll-a), supplemented with missing surface PAR data estimated using the Environmental String Model (ESM) with key climatic ERA5 variables. Missing Chlorophyll-a data are interpolated by applying the DINEOF method (Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions) and transformed into K d PAR. Visual and numerical evaluations closely approximate observations, demonstrating the accuracy of our approach. Subsequently, we extend our dataset back to 1958 using exclusively the ESM based on key climatic ERA5 variables. The ESM outperforms the Generalized Regression on Neural Network (GRNN) in computational efficiency while yielding similar results. Validation against in-situ measurements confirms the reliability of PAR and K d PAR surface products. Although the 1958–2022 dataset exhibits limited daily variability in PAR compared to the 1998–2022 dataset, it effectively captures critical spatial-temporal patterns, as demonstrated by correlative and comparative studies with El Niño indices. Furthermore, the similarity observed between euphotic depth (Z eu) derived from our ESM-based 4D PAR dataset (1958–2022), and the Mercator-Ocean hindcast model, along with in-situ data, underscores the robustness of our approach in capturing light availability at depth. • Establishment of two new 4D PAR datasets (Latitude x Longitude x Depth x Days). • Missing remote sensing PAR and KdPAR completed with ESM and DINEOF (1998–2022). • ESM reliably interpolated missing PAR remote sensing data (1998–2022). • 4D PAR dataset modelled using ESM on ERA5 variables (1958–2022). • ESM captured well key spatial-temporal patterns in surface PAR (1958–2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Gironde is the largest estuary of South-West Europe and is one of the best monitored estuarine systems in the world. This macrotidal estuary is characterized by a low biodiversity in both oligo- and mesohaline zones. Its zooplankton community is constituted by only five major species, three calanoid copepods (including one invasive species) and two mysids. Retrospective analyses have already documented a warming associated to a phenomenon of marinisation. Here, we investigate the influence of both marinisation and warming on the spatial distribution and the abundance of copepods (i.e. Eurytemora affinis, Acartia bifilosa and neritic species) in the Gironde estuary. We modelled the environmental envelope of the copepods as a function of salinity and temperature to demonstrate that the alteration of their longitudinal distribution in the estuary between 1975 and 2003 was the result of both changing temperature and salinity. Although the upstream movement of neritic species was mostly related to salinity, we show that the augmentation of both temperature and salinity was at the origin of the upstream progression of both A. bifilosa and E. affinis. These results suggest that the distribution of copepods can be affected by both anthropogenic forcing and climatic change, which modulate the physic-chemistry of the Gironde estuary. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot ( Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin ( Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study of truncated bimodal latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) in early Paleozoic phytoplankton called the acritarchs. Topics discussed include the use of a database of acritarch genera in time bins covering the Cambrian-Ordovician interval in the study, failure of the acritarch LDG to demonstrate a diversity maximum over mid- to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, and the role of long-term climate cooling and plate tectonics in the variation in LDG shape.

Heatwaves have increased in intensity, duration and frequency over the last decades due to climate change. Intertidal species, living in a highly variable environment, are likely to be exposed to such heatwaves since they can be emerged for more than 6 h during a tidal cycle. Little is known, however, on how temperature affects species traits (e.g. locomotion and behaviour) of slow-moving organisms such as benthic foraminifera (single-celled protists), which abound in marine sediments. Here, we examine how temperature influences motion-behaviour and metabolic traits of the dominant temperate foraminifera Haynesina germanica by exposing individuals to usual (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 °C) and extreme (high; i.e. 32, 34, 36 °C) temperature regimes. Our results show that individuals reduced their activity by up to 80% under high temperature regimes whereas they remained active under the temperatures they usually experience in the field. When exposed to a hyper-thermic stress (i.e. 36 °C), all individuals remained burrowed and the photosynthetic activity of their sequestered chloroplasts significantly decreased. Recovery experiments subsequently revealed that individuals initially exposed to a high thermal regime partially recovered when the hyper-thermic stress ceased. H. germanica contribution to surface sediment reworking substantially diminished from 10 mm3 indiv−1 day−1 (usual temperature) to 0 mm3 indiv−1 day−1 when individuals were exposed to high temperature regimes (i.e. above 32 °C). Given their role in sediment reworking and organic matter remineralisation, our results suggest that heatwaves may have profound long-lasting effects on the functioning of intertidal muddy ecosystems and some key biogeochemical cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming has been linked with changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of species and the body size structure of ecological communities. Body size is a master trait underlying a host of physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes. However, the relative importance of environmental drivers and life history strategies on community body size structure across large spatial and temporal scales is poorly understood. We used detailed data of 83 copepod species, monitored over a 57‐year period across the North Atlantic, to test how sea surface temperature, thermal and day length seasonality relate to observed latitudinal‐size clines of the zooplankton community. The genus Calanus includes dominant taxa in the North Atlantic that overwinter at ocean depth. Thus we compared the copepod community size structure with and without Calanus species, to partition the influence of this life history strategy. The mean community body size of copepods was positively associated with latitude and negatively associated with temperature, suggesting that these communities follow Bergmann's rule. Including Calanus species strengthens these relationships due to their larger than average body sizes and high seasonal abundances, indicating that the latitudinal‐size cline may be adaptive. We suggest that seasonal food availability prevents high abundance of smaller‐sized copepods at higher latitudes, and that active vertical migration of dominant pelagic species can increase their survival rate over the resource‐poor seasons. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts that climate warming has on ecological communities, with potential consequences for trophic interactions and biogeochemical processes that are well known to be size dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is already affecting marine ecosystems and the responses of living-resources to warming waters are various, ranging from the modifications in the abundance of key species to phenologic and biogeographic shifts. Here, we used a recently developed Ecological Niche Model (ENM) to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the future geographical distribution of the European anchovy. We first modelled the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of the fish and projected its future spatial range using new IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios and five of the latest generation of ocean-atmosphere global circulation models. We chose this multi-model and multi-scenario approach to evaluate the range of possible trajectories until the end of the century. Our projections indicate that substantial poleward shifts in the probability of anchovy occurrence are very likely and highlight areas where European anchovy fisheries are forecasted to change most. Whatever the warming scenario, our results project a reduction in the probability of occurrence in all the regions located under 48°N and an increase in more northern areas. However, increases or decreases in the probability of occurrence are greater under the “business-as-usual” scenario RCP8.5 than under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The composition of marine ecosystems is determined by spatial and temporal patterns of global biogeochemical cycles. Shifts in marine ecosystem composition driven by changes in climate can in turn affect biogeochemical cycles, especially through their impact on air–sea fluxes of CO2 and trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere. However, the response of marine ecosystems to climate is difficult to assess at global scale due to the scarcity of large-scale in-situ biological monitoring programmes. Here, we combine and analyse remote-sensing observations, in-situ observations, and a global ocean biogeochemistry model to gain insight into interactions between marine ecosystem composition and climate variability over the last decade, in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean. Our results show large-scale shifts in the dominance of diatoms, with mean anomalies 63.3% higher during extreme positive phases of North Atlantic Oscillation index compared to its extreme negative phases and with mean anomalies 134% higher during extreme positive phases of Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Ocean over the period 1998–2008. Significant changes in the frequency of diatom dominance are detected concurrently in the three data sources studied. Model outputs indicate that this increase is driven by nutrient supply from deep waters during windier and more turbulent climate conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climatic changes are disrupting otherwise tight trophic interactions between predator and prey. Most of the earlier studies have primarily focused on the temporal dimension of the relationship in the framework of the match–mismatch hypothesis. This hypothesis predicts that predator's recruitment will be high if the peak of the prey availability temporally matches the most energy-demanding period of the predators breeding phenology. However, the match–mismatch hypothesis ignores the level of food abundance while this can compensate small mismatches. Using a novel time-series model explicitly quantifying both the timing and the abundance component for trophic relationships, we here show that timing and abundance of food affect recruitment differently in a marine (cod/zooplankton), a marine–terrestrial (puffin/herring) and a terrestrial (sheep/vegetation) ecosystem. The quantification of the combined effect of abundance and timing of prey on predator dynamics enables us to come closer to the mechanisms by which environment variability may affect ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]