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Excessive phytoplankton concentrations in rivers can result in the loss of plant and invertebrate communities, and threaten drinking water supplies. Whilst the physicochemical controls on algal blooms have been identified previously, how these factors combine to control the initiation, size, and cessation of blooms in rivers is not well understood. We applied flow cytometry to quantify diatom, chlorophyte, and cyanobacterial group abundances in the River Thames (UK) at weekly intervals from 2011 to 2022, alongside physicochemical data. A niche modeling approach was used to identify thresholds in water temperature, flow, solar radiation, and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations required to produce periods of phytoplankton growth, with blooms only occurring when all thresholds were met. The thresholds derived from the 2011 to 2018 dataset were applied to a test data set (2019–2022), which predicted the timing and duration of blooms at accuracies of > 80%. Diatoms and nano‐chlorophyte blooms were initiated by flow and water temperature, and usually terminated due to temperature and flow going out of the threshold range, or SRP and Si becoming limiting. Cyanobacterial bloom dynamics were primarily controlled by water temperature and solar radiation. This simple methodology provides a key understanding of phytoplankton community succession and inter‐annual variation and can be applied to any river with similar water quality and phytoplankton data. It provides early warnings of algal and cyanobacterial bloom timings, which support future catchment management decisions to safeguard water resources, and provides a basis for modeling changing phytoplankton bloom risk due to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in urban agriculture has increased rapidly in recent decades, but little is known about the effect of potential contaminants, such as groundwater pollution, in urban areas. Furthermore, local and timely science necessary for developing place-based solutions and management plans are lacking. We present a citizen-science-driven case study of water quality in a large urban community garden in southwestern London that was initiated in response to the concerns of members about the effect of inorganic compounds in the water supply on organic produce. The 5.6-ha community garden has been cultivated for fruit and vegetables since 1921 and hand-pumped boreholes drawing water from an underlying shallow aquifer provide the only source of irrigation. We assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of specific conductance and tryptophan-like fluorescence to explore the dynamics of inorganic and organic pollution based on water drawn from the boreholes. A trained citizen scientist made measurements with a calibrated Manta II probe over a 28-mo period from 2014 to 2016. We also surveyed >80 members of the community garden to gain insight into cultivation practices. Results indicate that the concerns about external sources of pollution were unfounded. We found little evidence of the effect of potential adjacent sources of contamination or of changes in water quality in time. Distinct trends were absent, and evidence of poorer water quality close to possible sources of urban contamination was not apparent. However, significant interborehole variations in water quality were directly associated with the storage and use of manure on the site and local geological conditions. The study demonstrates the potential of citizen science to respond to community concerns and generate new and novel information when participants are engaged, trained, and equipped over longer periods of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides a first national-scale assessment of the nutrient status of British headwater streams within the wider river network, by joint analysis of the national Countryside Survey Headwater Stream and Harmonised River Monitoring Scheme datasets. We apply a novel Nutrient Limitation Assessment methodology to explore the extent to which nutrients may potentially limit primary production in headwater streams and rivers, by coupling ternary assessment of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and carbon (C) depletion, with N:P stoichiometry, and threshold P and N concentrations. P limitation was more commonly seen in the rivers, with greater prevalence of N limitation in the headwater streams. High levels of potential P and N co-limitation were found in the headwater streams, especially the Upland-Low-Alkalinity streams. This suggests that managing both P and N inputs may be needed to minimise risks of degradation of these sensitive headwater stream environments. Although localised nutrient impairment of headwater streams can occur, there were markedly lower rates of P and N impairment of headwater streams relative to downstream rivers at the national scale. Nutrient source contributions, relative to hydrological dilution, increased with catchment scale, corresponding with increases in the extent of agricultural and urban land-use. The estimated nutrient reductions needed to achieve compliance with Water Framework Directive standards, and to reach limiting concentrations, were greatest for the Lowland-High-Alkalinity rivers and streams. Preliminary assessments suggest that reducing P concentrations in the Lowland-High-Alkalinity headwater streams, and N concentrations in the Upland-Low-Alkalinity rivers, might offer greater overall benefits for water-quality remediation at the national scale, relative to the magnitude of nutrient reductions required. This approach could help inform the prioritisation of nutrient remediation, as part of a directional approach to water quality management based on closing the gaps between current and target nutrient concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]