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Despite a wealth of case-specific insights from agricultural adoption studies, we lack systematic evidence on which technology characteristics matter for adoption across different innovation contexts. We synthesise the results of 304 quantitative farm-level adoption studies for a wide range of agricultural innovations across more than 60 countries using multi-level meta regression. Our results show that land, capital and knowhow are generally more important when an innovation uses the respective factor intensively, but this effect is reduced in contexts where the factor is abundant. Our findings have implications for the design of rural development and agricultural extension programmes. Both should consider the interplay of geographic context and innovation characteristics to develop more effective sustainable intensification strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a correction notice for an article titled "Emerging Evidence on the Effectiveness of Tropical Forest Conservation" published in the journal PLoS ONE. The correction addresses an error in the first equation in the Forest conservation effectiveness subsection under Synthesis of Findings. The corrected equation is provided in the document. The authors of the article are Jan Börner, Kathy Baylis, Esteve Corbera, Driss Ezzine-de-Blas, Paul J. Ferraro, Jordi Honey-Rosés, Renaud Lapeyre, U. Martin Persson, and Sven Wunder. [Extracted from the article]

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are ongoing discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004–2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The aim of the study was to investigate prevalence and impact of incidental renal masses (IRMs) accompanying increasing computed tomography (CT) work-up for symptomatic aortic valve stenosis (sAVS) of the elderly with regard to the relevance of urological consultation for overall survival (OS). Methods: A retrospective analysis of pre-transcatheter aortic-valve implantations (TAVIs) CT scans of patients with sAVS (N = 1,253) harboring IRM was performed for 2014–2019. According to the clinical management, groups 1 (urologic consultation) and 2 (findings ignored) were formed and analyzed in terms of OS. Results: The prevalence of IRM was 9% (119/1,253). In 19% (23/119), urological advice was sought (group 1). At baseline, group 1 showed a significantly higher rate of malignancy-specific lesions compared to 2 (p < 0.01). Other clinical parameters (e.g., age, cardiological scores, comorbidities) did not differ between groups (p > 0.05). In group 1, 4 (17%) findings were histologically confirmed, of which 3 (13%) underwent surgery. There was no significant difference in median OS at a median follow-up of 24.7 months between groups 1 and 2 with 35.7 (95% CI, 5.9; 65.4) and 47.4 months (95% CI, 33.0; 61.7), respectively (p = 0.4). In Cox regression analysis, chronic kidney disease but not urologic work-up or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart failure emerged as an independent unfavorable predictor of OS (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.37; 4.36, p = 0.003). Conclusion: For the first time, a TAVI population with IRM was analyzed from the urologist's perspective. Urologic co-evaluation and work-up does not confer a significant benefit in terms of OS in this particular population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary We adopt a theory-based approach to synthesize research on the effectiveness of payments for environmental services in achieving environmental objectives and socio-economic co-benefits in varying contexts. Our theory of change builds on established conceptual models of impact pathways and highlights the role of (1) contextual dimensions (e.g., political, institutional, and socio-economic conditions, spatial heterogeneity in environmental service values and provision costs, and interactions with pre-existing policies), and (2) scheme design (e.g., payment type and level, contract length, targeting, and differentiation of payments) in determining environmental and socio-economic outcomes. To shed light on the overall effectiveness of payment schemes, and its determinants, we review counterfactual-based empirical evaluations, comparative analyses of case-studies, and meta-analyses. Our review suggests that program effectiveness often lags behind the expectations of early theorists. However, we also find that theory has advanced sufficiently to identify common reasons for why payment schemes fail or succeed. Moreover, payment schemes are often rolled out along with other policy instruments in so-called policy mixes. Advances in theory and evaluation research are needed to improve our understanding of how such policy mixes interact with the targeted social-ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation and forest degradation in the Peruvian Amazon represent a major threat to biodiversity-related ecosystem services and the global climate. In 2010, the Peruvian Ministry of Environment launched the National Forest Conservation Program for Climate Change Mitigation, an innovative approach to maintaining forest cover of over 54 million hectares of land in protected areas and indigenous and peasant communities. A key component is a payments for environmental services scheme encouraging investments in sustainable land and forest uses in community-controlled territories. We conducted an ex-ante assessment of how the program would play out in terms of conservation cost–effectiveness, income effects and distributional (equity) outcomes if payments were up-scaled, as intended, to all native communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Our spatially explicit impact assessment relied on remotely sensed deforestation data and field data-supported estimates of conservation opportunity costs. We found that the spatially heterogeneous distribution of forestland and economic returns to multiple land uses across communities results in important tradeoffs between hypothetical cost–effectiveness, poverty alleviation and equity outcomes. Nevertheless, our scenario analyses suggested that alternative design options for payment schemes could improve both cost–effectiveness and equity outcomes simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The PLOS ONE Collection “Measuring forest conservation effectiveness” brings together a series of studies that evaluate the effectiveness of tropical forest conservation policies and programs with the goal of measuring conservation success and associated co-benefits. This overview piece describes the geographic and methodological scope of these studies, as well as the policy instruments covered in the Collection as of June 2016. Focusing on forest cover change, we systematically compare the conservation effects estimated by the studies and discuss them in the light of previous findings in the literature. Nine studies estimated that annual conservation impacts on forest cover were below one percent, with two exceptions in Mexico and Indonesia. Differences in effect sizes are not only driven by the choice of conservation measures. One key lesson from the studies is the need to move beyond the current scientific focus of estimating average effects of undifferentiated conservation programs. The specific elements of the program design and the implementation context are equally important factors for understanding the effectiveness of conservation programs. Particularly critical will be a better understanding of the causal mechanisms through which conservation programs have impacts. To achieve this understanding we need advances in both theory and methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forest conservation is considered a low-cost option for climate change mitigation. But mitigation cost assessments have featured opportunity costs, neglecting policy implementation costs. Here we use official data to identify the Brazilian federal government's operational and institutional budgets related to forest conservation policies implemented from 2000 to 2014. We distinguish the allocated and executed budgets of these policies, and provide scenario-based estimates of their cost-effectiveness. On average, Brazil spent US$ 1 billion/year on forest conservation policies at the federal level. Brazil's substantial reduction in annual forest loss after 2004 was accompanied by a higher operational budget execution of disincentive-based policy instruments, and an absolute increase in both allocated and executed institutional budgets. The post-2004 successful mitigation effort represented additional implementation costs to the Brazilian federal government of US$ 308–923/ha of avoided deforestation, or US$ 0.87–2.60/tCO 2 of avoided emissions. Factoring in also approximate municipal and state expenditures, these costs increase to US$ 385–1153/ha or US$ 1.09–3.25/tCO 2 . We conclude that implementations costs are non-trivial in size, including compared to estimates of land users' opportunity costs. This has important implications for REDD + policy design, in the sense that implementation costs need to be adequately considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather-related agricultural losses and vector-borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. In this paper we measure the role of household- and location-specific characteristics in conditioning behavioural responses to a wide range of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. We use data from 8,000 rural households in 25 developing countries, compiled in the global database of the Poverty Environment Network. We employ a hierarchical multinomial logit model to identify the importance of characteristics observed at different levels of aggregation on a set of strategies aimed at coping with economic shocks. Results indicate that in response to idiosyncratic shocks, households tend to deplete financial and durable assets, whereas covariate and thus often climate-related shocks predominantly result in reduced consumption. Households in sites characterised by high asset wealth tend to cope with shocks in a more proactive way than those in sites with average or below average asset wealth, but the role of asset types in conditioning shock responses varies across regions. Our findings have implications for rural development and climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulatory enforcement of forest conservation laws is often dismissed as an ineffective approach to reducing tropical forest loss. Yet, effective enforcement is often a precondition for alternative conservation measures, such as payments for environmental services, to achieve desired outcomes. Fair and efficient policies to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will thus crucially depend on understanding the determinants and requirements of enforcement effectiveness. Among potential REDD candidate countries, Brazil is considered to possess the most advanced deforestation monitoring and enforcement infrastructure. This study explores a unique dataset of over 15 thousand point coordinates of enforcement missions in the Brazilian Amazon during 2009 and 2010, after major reductions of deforestation in the region. We study whether local deforestation patterns have been affected by field-based enforcement and to what extent these effects vary across administrative boundaries. Spatial matching and regression techniques are applied at different spatial resolutions. We find that field-based enforcement operations have not been universally effective in deterring deforestation during our observation period. Inspections have been most effective in reducing large-scale deforestation in the states of Mato Grosso and Pará, where average conservation effects were 4.0 and 9.9 hectares per inspection, respectively. Despite regional and actor-specific heterogeneity in inspection effectiveness, field-based law enforcement is highly cost-effective on average and might be enhanced by closer collaboration between national and state-level authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon had in 2012 declined to less than 5,000 sqkm, from over 27,000 in 2004. Mounting empirical evidence suggests that changes in Brazilian law enforcement strategy and the related governance system may account for a large share of the overall success in curbing deforestation rates. At the same time, Brazil is experimenting with alternative approaches to compensate farmers for conservation actions through economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services, at various administrative levels. We develop a spatially explicit simulation model for deforestation decisions in response to policy incentives and disincentives. The model builds on elements of optimal enforcement theory and introduces the notion of imperfect payment contract enforcement in the context of avoided deforestation. We implement the simulations using official deforestation statistics and data collected from field-based forest law enforcement operations in the Amazon region. We show that a large-scale integration of payments with the existing regulatory enforcement strategy involves a tradeoff between the cost-effectiveness of forest conservation and landholder incomes. Introducing payments as a complementary policy measure increases policy implementation cost, reduces income losses for those hit hardest by law enforcement, and can provide additional income to some land users. The magnitude of the tradeoff varies in space, depending on deforestation patterns, conservation opportunity and enforcement costs. Enforcement effectiveness becomes a key determinant of efficiency in the overall policy mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Halting biodiversity loss is a major contemporary challenge. Nature protection can help conserve biodiversity, but increasing wildlife numbers inside protected areas and shrinking habitats intensify interactions between humans and wildlife, potentially causing human–wildlife conflict (HWC). Contemporary narratives of HWC highlight detrimental effects on households' socioeconomic outcomes. Despite a wealth of literature on HWC, many studies remain descriptive and little inferential evidence has been provided. Here we identify the determinants and effects of reported HWC on household outcomes using spatial predictors and an original farm-household dataset collected in Namibia's share of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. In addition to dependence on agriculture, we find that community-based conservation, the share of a community's area set aside for conservation, and habitat connectivity are key drivers of HWC. Contrary to contemporary narratives of HWC, we find that reported conflicts did not have strong negative effects on household income and livelihood diversity. Conversely, community-based wildlife conservation increases income and livelihood diversity among participating households. It is, however, also associated with food insecurity concerns. Such concerns may be driven by comparatively higher restrictions related to land use planning and zoning that constrain productive land uses, such as agriculture. Our findings suggest that community-based conservation can create development synergies for households in favorable environments, despite increasing HWC risks. However, potential trade-offs including non-material costs warrant further research. • Determinants and effects of reported human–wildlife conflict (HWC) on household outcomes are identified • We find no relevant negative effect of HWC on income and livelihood diversity • Membership in community-based conservation schemes can create development synergies, despite higher risk of HWC. • Potential trade-offs in community-based conservation, such as with food security warrant further research [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article looks into the scope and equity implications of applying payments for environmental services (PES) as a REDD implementation mechanism in the Brazilian Amazon. We establish a set of economic and institutional preconditions for PES to become a feasible and cost-effective conservation mechanism. We proceed with a macro-scale spatial analysis and overlay of opportunity costs, deforestation patterns, carbon services, and land tenure, in order to assess where these conditions hold. We then screen how the benefits of potential PES schemes might be distributed across different socioeconomic groups of service providers in different land tenure categories. Our economic–quantitative analysis, though sensitive to documented assumptions, suggests that under current carbon prices the economic preconditions are in place to pay for avoided deforestation in over half of threatened forests over the next decade. Unfortunately, the same optimism does not apply to institutional preconditions. Land grabbing, insecure tenure, overlapping claims, and lacking information on private tenure constitute real medium-term impediments to PES. If payments were to accrue to current landholders regardless of current tenure insecurities, large landowners who account for about 80% of all deforestation would reap the highest benefits, though per-capita benefits other tenure categories are also high. Schemes that closely align payments with opportunity costs are preferable for cost-effectiveness, and not necessarily more inequitable in outcomes. Essentially, PES systems cannot substitute command-and-control measures: the former depend on the latter for basic governance systems to secure effective rights of exclusion, which land stewards essentially need in order to become reliable service providers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Conditional incentives are a promising complementary approach to conserve tropical forests, for example, in multiple-use protected areas. In this paper we analyze the environmental impacts of Bolsa Floresta , a forest conservation program that combines direct conditional payments with livelihood-focused investments in 15 multiple-use reserves in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. We use grid-based data, nearest-neighbor matching, and panel data econometrics to compare three forest-related program outcomes – deforestation, degradation, and fires – of participating and non-participating reserve areas. Forest threats were low before and after treatment, because the program prioritized low-pressure sites. Thus, we find significant but small additional conservation effects from the implementation of the program. Notwithstanding, treatment effects are relatively larger in areas with higher deforestation pressure and higher potential agricultural income. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence showing that adverse spatial targeting of conservation incentives, i.e. disproportionally enrolling low–pressure sites, is a prime cause for the low additionality found in rigorous impact evaluations of many existing initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Policymakers seeking to modify financial incentives to increase the flows of ecosystem services in and around tropical moist forests must consider where to focus their attention and what collection of incentives can effectively achieve policy objectives. In most cases, policymakers focus on extensively forested areas where the flows of ecosystem services between agriculture and the environment is generally characterized by massive flows of carbon and soil nutrients from forests to agriculture. In these forest margin areas the stock of primary forest is eventually exhausted and the cheap ingredients provided by nature to agriculture become increasingly scarce. At this point, policy interest generally wanes, and agriculture and the environment begin slow declines in ecosystem service exchange, often with negative consequences for rural poverty. How does one promote increased flows of ecosystem services from agricultural lands without increasing poverty when forests and soils have been depleted? Can the standard instruments, e.g., payments for ecosystem services, be effective in such situations, and if so, do the costs to society of securing these services increase? Here we focus on the flows of ecosystem services at the end of the cycle of converting primary forest to agriculture. Primary data from the Bragantina area in the southeastern Brazilian Amazon, an area cleared of primary forest decades ago, are used to characterize smallholder production systems, to describe the flows of ecosystem services into and from these systems, and to develop a bioeconomic model of smallholder agriculture capable of predicting the effects of several types of policy action on ecosystem services provided by and to agriculture, and on-farm household incomes and food self-reliance. Of particular interest is the Proambiente Pilot Program in Brazil, which uses smallholder payment schemes to induce farmers to manage land and forest resources in ways that generate more ecosystem services. Baseline results suggest that smallholder agriculture leads to a gradual loss of ecosystem services (mainly above-ground and root carbon) provided by secondary forest fallows, and that reduction in fallow age leads to reductions in plant diversity. Intensifying agricultural activities accelerates this process, but considerably increases smallholder incomes. Paying farmers for ecosystem services linked to the retention of secondary forests and the Proambiente program both increase area in forest fallow, but the latter substantially reduces farm income because of input use restrictions. In general, programs aiming to promote the production of ecosystem services should not limit farmers'' choices of ways to provide them. Employment and food self-reliance issues associated with policy options for increasing on-farm stocks of carbon and plant biodiversity are also explored. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The effectiveness of biodiversity conservation initiatives depends on their ability to maintain and restore the integrity and connectivity of ecological systems. Payments for environmental services (PES) can encourage farmers to set aside land for conservation, but landscape connectivity requires coordination among land users. Fairness in the distribution of payoffs has been shown to affect conservation efforts in response to PES, but the sources of inequality in payment allocation mechanisms can be manifold. Here we focus on the performance of conservation incentives under alternative payment modalities and levels of inequality in land ownership. We applied lab-in-the-field experiment with 384 Tanzanian farmers from two ecological corridors. Groups of participants were endowed with either equal or unequal amounts of hypothetical farmland and subsequently exposed to two treatments, namely a fixed individual payment and a fixed payment with an agglomeration bonus. Both payment modalities had positive effects on conservation, but we find no strong evidence for impact of asymmetries in landownership on conservation decisions. Overall, our results suggest that conditional payments can be effective even when land with high conservation value is unequally distributed in ecological corridors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global commodity supply chains contribute significantly to environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions. Improving supply chain transparency can create public awareness and encourage relevant actors to improve their ecological footprint. We exploit Brazil's Priority List policy for the Amazon region, a public disclosure mechanism introduced in 2008 that effectively reduced deforestation rates, to study how land users and commodity traders respond to the corresponding reputational risk exposure. Specifically, we combine remotely sensed land use data with spatio-temporally disaggregated soy trade statistics covering 15 years and 770 municipalities to measure the effect of priority listing on land-use change, sourcing patterns, and trade destinations. Using the Generalized Synthetic Control method, we find that priority listing led to a sizeable drop in deforestation and a corresponding reduction in pasture expansion. At the same time, soy expansion increased significantly, but instead of expanding into natural forests, it mostly replaced existing pastures and other cropland. The additional soy production was exported predominantly to China, whereas exports to the EU stagnated. • The Amazon Priority List reduced forest loss and pasture expansion. • Soy production expanded, but replaced almost exclusively non-forest land uses. • Increased soy production was mostly shipped to China and not to the EU. • Producers and traders employ strategies to mitigate reputational risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart Farming Technologies enable plant-specific agrochemical applications which can increase the efficiency and reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture. However, the uptake of Smart Farming Technologies remains slow despite their potential to enhance sustainable transformation of food systems. The design of policies to promote sustainable agricultural technologies requires a holistic understanding of the complex set of factors driving the adoption of innovations at farm level. This study has a focus on behavioral factors, such as pro-environmental attitude, personal innovativeness and moral norms. Based on an online study conducted in Germany, structural equation modelling is applied to test the predictions of an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behavior, using spot spraying, a smart weeding technology, as an example. The results confirm theoretical predictions and show that indicators of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control have relevant effects on farmers' adoption intentions. The extended model revealed a medium-sized (small) direct effect of moral norms on the attitude towards spot spraying (adoption intention). Personal innovativeness had a small effect on adoption intention, whereas pro-environmental attitude did not exhibit a clear direction of impact. Methodological and policy implications derived from the results are discussed noting that the inclusion of indicators for moral norms can improve the predictive power of models used in future research in this field. Overall, initiatives aimed at facilitating the exchange of opinions and related moral norms as well as collaboration among peers may contribute to voluntary sustainable innovation as it enhances adoption intentions among farmers. • Investigation of spot spraying adoption intention for sustainable weed control. • Extension of Theory of Planned Behavior via three behavioral constructs. • Moral norms affect intention directly and indirectly via behavioral attitude. • Innovativeness and environmental attitude have a small and unclear impact. • Model extensions yielded increased model fit compared to baseline model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In the forest–livelihoods literature, forests are widely perceived to provide both common safety nets to shocks and resources for seasonal gap-filling. We use a large global-comparative dataset to test these responses. We find households rank forest-extraction responses to shocks lower than most common alternatives. For seasonal gap-filling, forest extraction also has limited importance. The minority of households using forests for coping is asset-poor and lives in villages specialized on forests, in particular timber extraction. Overall, forest resources may be less important as a buffer between agricultural harvests and in times of unforeseen hardship than has been found in many case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The research combines economic, historical and anthropological data on the role of forests in local livelihoods in three South American countries. • Results showed the strong economic importance of forests to Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples, despite different contexts and histories. • Non-economic values of forests were also remarkably strong among Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples inhabiting forests for varied time scales. • The utilitarian notion behind nature valuation is not sufficient to comprehensively understand how local populations benefit from forests. • Development policies should support and leverage non-economic forest values and cosmologies, and provide sustainable economic alternatives. Research on the contribution of forests to local livelihoods has so far had a strong focus on quantifying the monetary value of forest-derived products and services. In this paper, we move beyond monetary valuation and integrate the less tangible and sometimes culturally complex dimensions through which forests support local livelihoods. We look at four local contexts in the Brazilian, Bolivian and Ecuadorian Amazon, which differ markedly in terms of their biophysical, sociocultural and geopolitical settings. Combining economic and anthropological data, we used quantitative and qualitative methods, and measures of the ecological impacts of local forest uses. Quantitative analyses drew on datasets from 48 communities, and 510 households, while the qualitative analyses relied on semi-structured interviews with 78 families in 22 communities. Forest-based livelihoods exhibited complex portfolios, diversified production systems, seasonal variation of activities, and different specialization strategies. Beyond a source of subsistence and cash incomes, forests were locally valued by people across all sites in terms of identities, worldviews, territorial attachment, governance, and conservation. Populations with a longer history of interactions with the environment displayed more complex forest-related cultural systems, but even among people who had migrated into the forest in a more recent historical period, forest-based self-cultural identification was evident. At all sites, forests were unanimously recognized as critical to people's health and wellbeing, despite substantial differences in local histories, policy and market environments. The findings underscore the persistent importance of non-economic values of forests as both Indigenous and non-Indigenous groups constantly adapt their forest and land use practices based on transcultural exchange and changing conditions. A focus on economic value as the rationale for forest conservation disregards the striking resilience of cultural values in promoting forest conservation and use by diverse local and Indigenous communities, especially when supported by favorable policies and markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important part of conservation practice is the empirical evaluation of program and policy impacts. Understanding why conservation programs succeed or fail is essential for designing cost-effective initiatives and for improving the livelihoods of natural resource users. The evidence we seek can be generated with modern impact evaluation designs. Such designs measure causal effects of specific interventions by comparing outcomes with the interventions to outcomes in credible counterfactual scenarios. Good designs also identify the conditions under which the causal effect arises. Despite a critical need for empirical evidence, conservation science has been slow to adopt these impact evaluation designs. We identify reasons for the slow rate of adoption and provide suggestions for mainstreaming impact evaluation in nature conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped substantially after a peak of over 27 thousand square kilometers in 2004. Starting in 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment has regularly published blacklists of critical districts with high annual forest loss. Farms in blacklisted districts face additional administrative hurdles to obtain authorization for clearing forests. In this paper we add to the existing literature on evaluating the Brazilian anti-deforestation policies by specifically quantifying the impact of blacklisting on deforestation. We first use spatial matching techniques using a set of covariates that includes official blacklisting criteria to identify control districts. We then explore the effect of blacklisting on change in deforestation in double difference regressions with panel data covering the period from 2002 to 2012. Multiple robustness checks are conducted including an analysis of potential causal mechanisms behind the success of the blacklist. We find that the blacklist has considerably reduced deforestation in the affected districts even after controlling for the potential mechanism effects of field-based enforcement, environmental registration campaigns, and rural credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture faces several challenges including climate change and biodiversity loss while, at the same time, the demand for food, feed, biofuels, and fiber is increasing. Sustainable intensification aims to increase productivity and input-use efficiency while enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems to adverse environmental conditions through improved management and technology. Recent advances in sensing, machine learning, modeling, and robotics offer opportunities for novel smart digital technologies to enable sustainable intensification. However, developing smart digital technologies and putting them into agricultural practice, requires closing major research gaps, related in particular to (1) the utilization of multi-scale multi-sensor monitoring in space and time, (2) using artificial intelligence for linking process and data-driven methods, (3) improving decision making and intervention in plant production, and finally (4) modeling conditions and consequences of farmers acceptance. Closing these gaps requires an interdisciplinary approach. Here, we present a research agenda and steps forward to steer research efforts, highlighting research priorities, and identifying required interdisciplinary research collaboration. Following this agenda will leverage the full potential of smart digital technologies for sustainable crop production. [Display omitted] • Research gaps hinder smart digital technologies to enhance sustainable agriculture. • We present an interdisciplinary research agenda required to close these gaps. • Examples illustrate why closing these research gaps is important for sustainability. • The proposed research agenda helps steering research efforts and collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of increasingly complex sustainability challenges, societal transformations of currently unsustainable socio-economic production and consumption patterns are imperative. At the same time, international scholarly debates emphasise a decline in the policy capacity of societal actors to deal with the complexity of putting policy into practice. South Africa's national development strategy of utilising its unique biodiversity for developing natural products and biopharmaceuticals was anticipated by the government to help overcome the country's triple challenge of unemployment, poverty and inequality. Accompanied by a set of national regulations, introduced to safeguard biodiversity thresholds and regulate socio-economic activities along biomass value chains, this policy of a biodiversity economy is framed by the South African government, as a societal transformation. Informed by a plural theoretical lens drawing upon insights from international scholarly literature on transitions and transformations and insights from policy capacity, implementation research and governance literature, we interrogate qualitative empirical evidence from the field for how and whether such transformation has materialised for different bioprospecting actors in South Africa. Asking which factors enabled or limited this transformation, we distil criteria for what we call transformative policy capacity. We argue that transformations are political and deeply context-dependent relying on the resources and capabilities of involved societal actors to put political plans into practice, including the policy target group. We conclude that a biodiversity economy-driven transformation has yet to become a reality for many South Africans, but efforts are being made to foster the policy capacity of central actors and to adapt the regulatory system to be more conducive for the anticipated change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines how Brazil's inability to tackle illegal deforestation puts the future of its agribusiness at risk. It mentions about an interlinkage between illegal deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes with the highest rates of deforestation and European Union (EU) imports of Brazil's soy and beef. It mentions that Brazil has all the elements to feed the world with a responsible agricultural sector that tackles climate change.

Established in 2002, the Amazon Protected Areas Program (ARPA) supports 120 Conservation Units (CUs) in the Brazilian Amazon, covering 62 Mha. Here, we quantified the impact of ARPA support on reducing deforestation and CO 2 emissions between 2008 and 2020. We started by examining critical methodological choices, often brushed over in the impact evaluation studies on protected areas (PAs). We then applied a covariate balancing method to control for variation in covariates so as to compare differences in deforestation between Strictly Protected (SP) and Sustainable Use (SU) CUs with and without ARPA support as well as to assess the influence of ARPA investment mechanism on the differential reductions. Next, we estimated total reductions in deforestation and CO 2 emissions by using the Adjusted Odds Ratio. We found that ARPA support accounts for additional deforestation reductions of 9 % in SP CUs and 39 % in SU CUs in relation to non-supported CUs. The effects of ARPA investment mechanism were statistically significant for both categories of CUs. CUs plus Indigenous Lands (i.e., PAs) reduced by 21 % (2.0 ± 0.3 Mha) Amazon deforestation between 2008 and 2020. Of this total, ARPA CUs accounts for 264 ± 25 thousand ha, the equivalent of 104 ± 10 Mtons of CO 2 emissions. If deforestation continues unabated, PAs will become the last citadels of the Amazon. However, protecting the Amazon only with PAs does not suffice. Additional investments in a comprehensive conservation policy mix are needed along with a monitoring and evaluation strategy to provide evidence on what works for effective and socially equitable forest conservation. • The ARPA Program supports 120 conservation units in the Brazilian Amazon • Amazon protected areas reduced by 21% deforestation between 2008 and 2020 • Deforestation was 9-39% lower in conservation units with ARPA support • Conservation units with ARPA support reduced 104±10 Mtons of CO 2 emissions • It is central to evaluate the impact of investments on attaining effective outcomes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We integrate original survey data with spatiotemporal covariates for households in Namibia's Zambezi Region. • We then estimate the impact of community-based natural resource management on environmental income and dependency. • Community-based natural resource management fosters livelihood strategies that are, on average, more dependent on the environment. • Households living in close proximity to touristic enterprises are more likely to benefit from environmental income effects than others. Many poor rural households depend on products from non-cultivated environments for subsistence and commercialization. Collective action schemes, such as community-based natural resource management (CBNRM), aim at maintaining natural resource quality and thus potentially contribute to the sustainability of environmental income sources. Little is known about whether and under which contextual conditions these schemes effectively promote environmental income generation or imply trade-offs between wildlife conservation and socioeconomic development. We rely on a unique combination of original farm-household data with a rich set of spatiotemporal covariates to quantify environmental income and dependency in Namibia's Zambezi region at the heart of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. We then estimate the effect of CBNRM on environmental income and dependency in a quasi-experimental regression-based approach. Controlling for historical variables that affected selection into formal CBNRM schemes, we further explore the role of contextual variation in exposure to tourism activity. Results suggest that CBNRM fosters livelihood strategies that are, on average, more dependent on the environment. However, this effect is driven by outcomes of households that live in close proximity to touristic enterprises, where such livelihood strategies align better with other income generating opportunities than in areas where agriculture represents the only viable economic alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability certification (SC) is one of the most popular private sector approaches to govern social and environmental outcomes of trade in products from agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Based on a sample of 175 peer-reviewed articles, we use a novel mixed methods meta-analytical approach to study the success of major sustainability certifications in promoting sustainable (primary) production practices. We consider both qualitative and quantitative studies. Our main data source are the discussion and conclusion sections of research papers. We analyze conclusive statements about the success of SCs and categorize them into favorable, mixed, and skeptical evaluations. The picture is dominated by skeptical conclusions. Subsequently, we analyze how specific study characteristics affect this evaluation. The distribution of favorable, mixed, and skeptical evaluations is largely similar across the areas of economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Over time, the share of skeptical evaluations has increased. Contextual factors such as primary sub-sector, or country show no significant effects. The evaluations are also largely consistent across different types of SCs. Studies focusing on endpoint sustainability outcomes evaluate the performance of SCs significantly more skeptical than studies that focus on intermediate sustainability outcomes. Furthermore, our study shows that the share of skeptical evaluations significantly increases when a study examines the success of SCs for outcome variables with high implementation costs. Overall, our review points towards a limited success of SCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a review of trade-offs and synergies of bioenergy within the water–energy–food security nexus, with emphasis on developing countries. It explores the links of bioenergy with food security, poverty reduction, environmental sustainability, health, and gender equity. It concludes that applying the nexus perspective to analyses of bioenergy widens the scope for achieving multiple-win outcomes along the above aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Pervasive tenure insecurity in developing countries is a key challenge for REDD+. Brazil, a leader in REDD+, has advanced efforts to link forest tenure reform and environmental compliance. We describe how these policies have shaped sub-national interventions with detailed data on land tenure and livelihoods in four REDD+ pilot sites in the Brazilian Amazon. Despite different local contexts, REDD+ proponents have converged on a similar strategy of collaborating with government agencies to clarify tenure and pave the way for a mix of regulatory enforcement and incentive-based REDD+ mechanisms. This polycentric governance model holds promise for effective and equitable REDD+ implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas (PAs) are important policy instruments for forest conservation, but it is unclear if improved management can increase PA effectiveness. In Brazil, formal management plans are required to be in place shortly after the creation of a PA. This requirement is rarely enforced and, as a result, several PAs undergo many years without approved plans. We take advantage of this variation among PAs to study the impact of management plans on deforestation. We provide estimates from two quasi-experimental evaluation approaches based on the generalization of the difference-in-differences estimator: (1) matching-based methods for time-series cross-sectional data analysis and (2) the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method. We find weak, yet generally consistent, evidence across these two methods suggesting that PAs with approved management plans protect forests more effectively over time. Significant impact estimates from the matching-based approach ranged more widely than the GSC method (0.01%–0.09% versus 0.04%–0.05% of avoided deforestation per year, respectively). The effect size of these impacts is relatively substantial given that the average annual forest loss from our PA sample was 0.07% (±0.40%). To the extent that PAs with approved management plans reflect actual differences in PA management quality, our findings suggest that investments in improving PA management could result in positive conservation gains over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adoption and diffusion of digital farming technologies are expected to help transform current agricultural systems towards sustainability. To enable and steer transformation we need to understand the mechanisms of adoption and diffusion holistically. Our current understanding is mainly informed by empirical farm-level adoption studies and by agent-based models simulating systemic diffusion mechanisms. These two approaches are weakly integrated. Our objective is to build an empirically grounded conceptual framework for adoption and diffusion of digital farming technologies by synthesizing literature on these alternative approaches. We review 32 empirical farm-level studies on the adoption of precision and digital farming technologies and 27 agent-based models on the diffusion of agricultural innovations. Empirical findings are synthesized in terms of significance and partially standardized coefficients, and diffusion studies are categorized by their approaches and theoretical frameworks. We show that farm-level studies focus on farm and operator characteristics but pay less attention to attributes of technology, interactions, institutional and psychological factors. Agent-based models, despite their usefulness for representing system interaction, only loosely connect with empirical farm-level findings. Based on the identified gaps, we develop a conceptual framework integrating farm-level evidence on adoption with a systemic perspective on technology diffusion. Our empirically grounded conceptual framework is the first holistic approach to connect the dots between the wealth of empirical research on technology adoption with more model-driven investigation of innovation diffusion in agent-based studies. Focusing on digital farming technologies, it may serve as a reference for those studying the adoption and diffusion of such technologies beyond farm scale. Furthermore, this framework can be the basis for contextual applications to inform policy-makers trying to foster the diffusion of suitable digital technologies through interventions as it highlights where policy can impact important aspects of adoption via relevant processes of diffusion. [Display omitted] • Empirical literature on adoption of digital farming is not well connected with agent-based models on innovation diffusion. • We connect empirical adoption studies and system approaches of innovation diffusion by review and synthesis. • Agent-based models can explicitly represent complex systemic relationships but lack empirical validation. • We converge the insights from our reviews into a conceptual framework. • We provide a reference to study the adoption of digital farming and guide future analyses informing policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initiatives to promote community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) have been evaluated with mixed results in socio-economic and ecological outcome dimensions. In Namibia, community conservancies are being established since the 1990s mainly to reconcile wildlife conservation and rural development. As Namibia gears up for participation in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), land use and land cover change and related biomass carbon dynamics may become increasingly important additional outcome indicators for the country's approach to CBNRM. Based on a social-ecological conceptual framework, we identify spatially heterogeneous local context factors that may drive positive and negative effects of CBNRM on vegetation cover in Namibia's Zambezi region. We test our theoretical predictions using panel data in a spatially explicit, quasi-experimental evaluation design and find that, on average, CBNRM somewhat increased elephant presence, but had a negative effect on woodland cover. Heterogeneous treatment effect analysis indicates that CBNRM does work for woodland conservation when communities are located in and around wildlife corridors, which provide tourism income opportunities. Despite success in stabilizing wildlife populations in the region, our results suggest that complementary conservation incentives may be required to make Namibia's CBNRM model fit for REDD+. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biochemicals constitute a key sector in the bioeconomy, but their future expansion depends on biomass availability. This study employs an integrated global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach to quantify the impacts on land-use change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and socioeconomic indicators, when reducing biomass conversion costs for global biochemical production by 1.5% annually until 2050. Global demand for crop- and forest-based feedstock by the chemical industry increases sharply in 2050, e.g. by 327% for wheat; driving up agro-food prices, e.g. by 3.5% for oilseeds and 3.9% for sugarcane in Brazil. Chemical output decreases in countries that rely on imported biomass for biochemical production, such as Germany, France or the United States; while it increases, for instance, in Brazil and Australia, which use mainly domestic feedstock. Increased biomass demand entails significant natural forest cover loss across South America and Asia, and, to a lesser extent, in North America. Subsequent GHG emissions from global losses in carbon stocks outweigh GHG savings from reduced fossil fuel consumption, resulting in a net increase in GHGs of 107 Mt in 2050 relative to the baseline. Results suggest that R&D investments in bio-based sectors should be complemented with coherent policies to prevent deforestation and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals. • Biomass-to-chemical conversion is studied in a global dynamic equilibrium framework. • Impacts depend on biomass trade flows and countries' feedstock availability. • Increased demand for biomass boosts food prices and causes deforestation globally. • Land-use change emissions outweigh GHG savings from reduced fossil fuel demand. • Innovation in bio-based technologies requires complementary policy action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Rural specialization strategies can be examined within the forest transition framework. We compared smallholder livelihood strategies between neighboring southwestern Amazonian sites at different stages along the forest transition curve. Surveys of 243 households in Pando, Bolivia and Acre, Brazil, within and outside of two major protected areas, confirmed a higher reliance on forest-based income in forest-rich Pando than in Acre. In Acre, forest reliance was higher in the protected area than outside, where forest cover was lower and households were more livestock-dependent. Country context and protected area status were critical to explaining different smallholder specialization strategies in similar biophysical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in CIFOR’s Poverty Environment Network (PEN). Environmental income accounts for 28% of total household income, 77% of which comes from natural forests. Environmental income shares are higher for low-income households, but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought. The poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods, and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests. In absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile, compared to the two lowest quintiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]