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While it is known that sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the subtropical northeastern Pacific (SNEP) can be forced by wintertime atmospheric variability, the region over which atmospheric variability plays the significant driving role remains to be elucidated. Based on observational data during 1900–2014 and a first-order autoregressive model, we show that SNEP SST variability is dominantly forced by wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, slightly north of the SNEP. Atmospheric variability south of the SNEP, however, does not play the dominant driving role because of atmospheric barotropic response that partially offsets baroclinic Gill response over the ocean surface. Further, by decomposing North Pacific atmospheric variability into tropical Pacific (TP)-forced and non-TP-forced components using a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment, we find that the leading modes in the two components comparably contribute to forcing SNEP SST in the historical record. Further analyses show that their contribution is unstable on decadal timescales, with stronger forcing effect from TP-forced Aleutian Low (AL) variability before the 1930s and after the 1980s. Such non-stationary forcing effect is primarily attributed to the relative amplitude between TP-forced AL and non-TP-forced atmospheric variability, which would affect the predictability of SNEP SST variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dependence of the large-scale structure of oceanographic fields on short-term variations in atmospheric forcing (AF) at the ocean surface has been studied. Estimates of this dependence were obtained by comparing the results of two numerical experiments with the NEMO model in the ORCA1 configuration used as a computational core in the data assimilation system at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. The experiments similar in all other respects differed only in the discreteness of the AF data: 3–24 hours in the main experiment and 1 month in the experiment with time-averaged AF. Large-scale characteristics were compared: kinetic energy averaged over large regions, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, meridional heat transport, mixed layer depth, and sea ice volume. It has been shown that neglecting high-frequency AF variability can significantly distort the long-term evolution of oceanographic fields reproduced by ocean models and thereby affect the quality of model forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bidirectional mass exchange between the Marmara Sea and the Aegean Sea provides one part of the critical hydrodynamic links between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we examined exchange in the Dardanelles based on a 3-D numerical model simulation covering an 11-year period under realistic atmospheric forcing. The model includes the Black Sea, the Marmara Sea, and a part of the Aegean Sea to include the remote effects of basin dynamics. The main features as one-, two-, and three-layered flow structures are successfully reproduced by the model in comparison to earlier observations. It is found that the strait is subject to submaximal exchange by only one control near the Nara Pass. According to long-term modeling results, most variability occurs on synoptic time scales, and wind stress has a dominant role in those variations. The seasonal and interannual variability of exchange flow is relatively low and displays a close relationship with freshwater input to the Black Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 to 2022. Higher precipitation variability is found in southern Portugal, with a higher ratio of extreme events on fewer rainy days. This study shows that these SHHP events are associated with low-pressure systems located just to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. These systems exhibit a cold core, particularly strong at mid-levels, and a positive vorticity anomaly, which is stronger in the upper troposphere, extending downward to low levels. These conditions drive differential positive vorticity advection and, therefore, rising motion to the east of the low-pressure systems. Moreover, at low levels, these systems promote moisture advection over western Iberia, also generating instability conditions, which are assessed by instability indices (Convective available potential energy, the Total-Totals index, and the K-index). The combination of these conditions drives heavy precipitation events. Lastly, the total column cloud ice water revealed higher values for the heavier precipitation events, suggesting that it may be a useful predictor of such events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unprecedented North Pacific marine heatwave (known as the Blob) in 2013/14 winter has attracted many research interests, considering its dramatic impacts on the ecosystem and regional climate. Meanwhile, the summertime Blob events have also emerged in recent decades. In this study, we identified four Blob events in the summer of 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2020 during the Satellite Era. Here we show diversity existed in the formation of summer Blob events. The atmospheric forcing responsible for the Blob is the weakened North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), which contributes significantly to the Blob in 2019 via anomalous shortwave radiation. However, the atmospheric forcing alone cannot fully explain all the Blob events, especially the one in 2020 when the weakened NPSH is absent. Other than the weakened NPSH, the preceding spring sea surface temperature (SST) warm anomalies in the northeast Pacific can persist into the following summer due to anomalous mixed layer heat content and significantly contribute to the Blob. A binary linear regression model considering both the SST persistence and the NPSH is constructed, successfully reproducing the observed Blob variation for the period 1982–2020 (r = 0.76, p < 0.001). The model improves the ability to capture the warm peaks in all four summer Blob events, which either single factor cannot fully depict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparison of simulations of the global ocean circulation with the NEMO/SI3 model with two types of atmospheric forcing (DFS5.2 and CFSR/CDAS), as well as with two grid resolutions (1° and 0.25°) is presented. The objective of such comparison is to substantiate a choice of a source of data on atmospheric forcing and a grid resolution for use in an operational system for the ocean state diagnosing and forecasting. It is shown that all considered simulations reproduce main large-scale ocean characteristics. The CFSR/CDAS merged meteorological dataset, which provides better agreement with actual data, is quite suitable for specifying atmospheric forcing in retrospective and operational applications of the NEMO/SI3 model, including its use as a computational core in the data assimilation system within the framework of the analysis–forecast–analysis sequential assimilation scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non‐tidal background models describing high‐frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self‐attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1–6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE‐FO laser ranging interferometer range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America. Plain Language Summary: In addition to many rather slow processes such as the melting of glaciers, rapid mass redistribution related to the weather also measurably affect the Earth's gravity field. The ability of monitoring liquid freshwater changes within the Earth system from the satellite gravity missions GRACE (2002–2017) and GRACE‐FO (since 2018) relies on accurate background models of mass variability in atmosphere and oceans for both tidal and non‐tidal processes. Atmospheric tides are primarily excited in the middle atmosphere by solar energy absorption at periods of 24 hr and its overtones. We find additional tidal signatures in the atmosphere excited by periodic deformations of both crust and sea‐surface of the Earth. We thus introduce here a new data set for the atmospheric tides and their corresponding oceanic response that features both more waves and higher accuracy than other background models previously used for the processing of GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite gravimetry data. Key Points: Sixteen relevant tidal lines identified in hourly data from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysisDedicated simulations with a high‐resolution global hydrodynamic model to simulate ocean tides with atmospheric influenceNew tidal models reduce pre‐fit residuals in GRACE‐FO Laser Ranging Interferometer data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) were investigated using the daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature for 37 years (1982–2018), focusing on seasonal changes and regional differences. The summer MHWs occur 54% more frequently (2.7 events/decade) in a relatively wide area than in other seasons. The strong (up to 3.7 °C) and long-lasting (up to 38 days/event) winter MHWs are concentrated along the subpolar front (SPF) in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) where the MHWs are 20% longer (2.2 days/event) than in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS). The summer MHWs are primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation associated with reduced cloud cover and latent cooling from the weakened wind over the western flank of developing subtropical highs. Driving mechanisms of the winter MHWs differ by region. The YECS MHWs occur mainly due to the atmospheric processes associated with weakening continental highs, while the EJS MHWs are largely driven by the northward shift of the SPF. Although large-scale atmospheric processes primarily drive the summer MHWs occurring in a wide area in the EAMS, our findings suggest that ocean processes can be major contributors to intensified MHW generation in limited areas, especially in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we isolate groundwater responses to atmospheric forcing of surface water levels by relating anomalies in coastal aquifer hydraulic head time‐series to weather events. Our results demonstrate that atmospheric forcing has a greater effect on groundwater exchange and extended residence time over astronomical tidal pumping at times. During winter, atmospheric groundwater forcing was associated with winter storm passage and had a recurrence interval of approximately 7 days. During summer, atmospheric groundwater forcing was limited to weak diurnal atmospheric convection and infrequent tropical cyclone activity. Because winter storms and tropical cyclones commonly produce precipitation, atmospheric groundwater forcing can synergize with the timing of meteoric recharge producing periods of intense submarine groundwater discharge. Plain Language Summary: Groundwater discharges from the seafloor into coastal waters through a process known as submarine groundwater discharge. Submarine groundwater discharge is composed of fresh water from the land and recirculated seawater drawn into the seafloor by ocean processes. In this manuscript, we document the effect of shifting winds brought about by winter storms, tropical cyclones, and land/sea breezes on seawater recirculation through seafloor sediments. Strong onshore winds cause regional mounding of seawater against the shoreline and infiltration into coastal aquifers while offshore winds allow groundwater to drain from the seafloor back into coastal waters. This effect we term, atmospheric groundwater forcing, leads to periods of intense submarine groundwater discharge following tropical cyclones and winter storms. Key Points: Atmospheric groundwater forcing is a seawater recirculation process driven by wind forcing of coastal surface water levelsAtmospheric groundwater forcing is seasonally associated with winter storms, tropical cyclones, and atmospheric convection cyclesThe timing of atmospheric groundwater forcing can synergize with meteoric recharge leading to subterranean estuary flushing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily means sea level has been computed from hourly observations at Aden and Djibouti for the period of 2011–2014 to study seasonal variability in sea level in the western Gulf of Aden. This variability is investigated against the following controlling factors: sea level pressure, wind, and steric sea level. Variability in sea level at Aden and Djibouti shows strong seasonality with higher sea level in winter and lower sea level in summer with a range up to about 35 cm. The high-frequency variability in sea level agrees with variability in pressure, especially during winter following normal inverse barometric relation. Cross-shore wind affects sea level variability in Djibouti more than that in Aden, while along-shore wind plays a significant role in sea level variability at Aden. Daily steric sea level for both stations play a significant role in seasonal sea level anomaly (SLA) variability. Both stations shows that strong signals are the annual and semiannual, while small frequencies are negligible in comparison. For Aden and Djibouti stations, steric sea level is the dominant factor with a determination coefficient (DC) of 0.73, and 0.71, respectively. Along-shore wind has the second higher contribution for Aden with (DC) of about 0.3. The cross-shore wind component has the second highest contribution on Djibouti SLA with a DC of about 0.3, while for Aden, this factor has no effect on SLA. Sea level pressure (SLP) contribution is clearly seen in short-period variability for both stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern history of North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows variability coinciding with changes in air temperature and rainfall over the Northern Hemisphere. There is a debate about this variability and, in particular, whether it is internal to the ocean‐atmosphere system or is forced by external factors (natural and anthropogenic). Here we present a temperature record, obtained using the Sr/Ca ratio measured in a skeleton of a sclerosponge, that shows agreement with the instrumental record over the past 150 years as well as multidecadal temperature variability over the last 600 years. Comparison with climate simulations of the last millennium shows that large cooling events recorded, in the sclerosponge, are consistent with natural (primarily volcanic activity) and anthropogenic forcings. There are, however, multidecadal periods not connected to current estimates of external forcing over the last millennium allowing for alternative explanations, such as internally driven changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Key Points: A high‐resolution 600‐year proxy temperature record from the subtropical Atlantic shows multidecadal temperature variabilityIn both models and observations, surface temperatures at this site are reflective of basin‐wide multidecadal variabilityComparison with Last Millennium climate model simulations shows the fingerprint of volcanically induced cooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hudson Bay Complex is the outlet for many Canadian rivers, receiving roughly 900 km3/year of river runoff. Historically, studies found a consistent cyclonic flow year‐round in Hudson Bay, due to the geostrophic boundary current induced by river discharge and cyclonic wind forcing that was supported by available observations at that time. Using a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model, we show that in summer, the mean circulation is not cyclonic but consists of multiple small cyclonic and anticyclonic features, with the mean flow directed through the center of the bay. Absolute Dynamic Topography and velocity observations also show this seasonal flow pattern. We find that this summer circulation is driven by geostrophic currents, generated by steric height gradients, which are induced by increased river discharge during the spring freshet, and reinforced by anticyclonic seasonal wind patterns. Plain Language Summary: Knowing the direction of the currents, as well as speed, in Hudson Bay is important for understanding regional ocean flow patterns. Currents in Hudson Bay were historically thought to flow counterclockwise. We use a state‐of‐the‐art computer simulation to see if this flow pattern changes during the year. We found that in May and June, the flow pattern in eastern Hudson Bay reverses and the currents flow in a clockwise direction, while currents in western Hudson Bay still flow counterclockwise. Satellite measurements of ocean currents also show this switch in the current direction in eastern Hudson Bay. This reversal of the current direction occurs because of a change in the wind direction as well as the amount of river water entering the bay during spring (May–June). In spring, river water flowing into the bay increases because of snow melt. More river water enters southeastern Hudson Bay, in and around James Bay, causing higher sea levels in the east compared to the west. This water will flow from high to low (east to west), causing the clockwise flow pattern in summer. Key Points: The spring freshet increases the halosteric height in eastern Hudson Bay, generating a seasonal flowThis anticyclonic seasonal flow pattern is present in observations and the ocean model simulationGeostrophic flow that is reinforced by atmospheric forcing drives this springtime flow pattern [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are different in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay. Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations (E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass (<0.8 cpd) sea levels (SLSLs) at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind; in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is 65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind (SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original 36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Atlantic Water (AW) transported from the Nordic Seas is the major source of oceanic heat to the Arctic Ocean. Based on results from the TOPAZ reanalysis, a regional coupled ice‐ocean data assimilation system, we show that interannual variability of AW temperature in the Fram Strait (FS) is associated with the strength of the Greenland Sea gyre (GSG) circulation. The response of the GSG to the anomalous wind stress curl over the Nordic Seas modifies the AW inflow and thus influences the variability of AW temperature in the FS. A stronger (weaker) GSG circulation increases (decreases) the AW flow speed toward FS, leading to increased (decreased) oceanic heat content and higher (lower) AW temperature therein. This implies that the Nordic Seas circulation is not only a passive conduit of AW, but its response to overlying atmospheric variability can also largely influence the AW temperature in the FS by modifying the transport of AW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although atmospheric reanalyses are an extremely valuable tool to study the climate of polar regions, they suffer from large uncertainties in these data-poor areas. In this work, we examine how Antarctic sea ice biases in an ocean-sea ice model are related to these forcing uncertainties. Three experiments are conducted in which the NEMO-LIM model is driven by different atmospheric forcing sets. The minimum ice extent, the ice motion and the ice thickness are sensitive to the reanalysis chosen to drive the model, while the wintertime ice extent and inner pack concentrations are barely affected. The analysis of sea ice concentration budgets allows identifying the processes leading to differences between the experiments, and also indicates that large and similar errors compared to observations are present in all three cases. Our assessment of the influence of forcing inaccuracies on the simulated Antarctic sea ice allows disentangling two types of model biases: the ones that can be reduced thanks to better atmospheric forcings, and those that would require improvements of the physics of the ice or ocean model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Regularity and amplitude of solitons show a clear fortnightly cycle • Observed arrival times oscillated between 14 (spring tides) and 20 h (neap tides) • Atmospheric forcing modulates important aspects of soliton propagation Internal waves are commonly observed in oceans and lakes where high stratification exists. In the present study in the Strait of Gibraltar, we analyse internal soliton signals recorded in different locations in their eastward propagation from their release point (Camarinal Sill) to the continental slope of the northwestern Alboran Sea. Moreover, the effect of subinertial forcing on the release of solitons is also explored. The internal soliton activity was assessed from different approaches: (i) in-situ data (i.e., current and temperature measurements or High-Frequency Radar), (ii) numerical modelling, and (iii) an analytical approach. The arrival of solitons over the continental slope of the north-western Alboran Sea showed fortnightly variability in both number (occurrence) and amplitude during spring tides when compared with during neap tides. The observed arrival times of the solitons oscillated between 14 (spring tides) and 20 h (neap tides). Nevertheless, to provide a comprehensive explanation for the fluctuations in travel times, it is necessary to consider the subinertial variability driven by atmospheric forcing, which impacts both the flow in the Strait of Gibraltar and the mesoscale patterns in the Alboran Sea (e.g., the Coastal Cyclonic Gyre). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter-annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992–2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data for the period of 1982–2009 have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the main climatic oceanic frontal zones (OFZ; subpolar, subtropical and equatorial) associated with the large-scale atmospheric forcing. The seasonal variability of the OFZ is manifested in variations of their intensity (magnitude of the meridional gradient of SST) and latitudinal position of the cores (defined as areas of maximum SST gradient). The maximum intensity of the subpolar OFZ is observed in summer of the corresponding hemisphere, while subtropical OFZ are intensified synchronously in both hemispheres during boreal winter. Subtropical OFZ cores in both hemispheres shift synchronously to the south/north during the winter/summer of the Northern hemisphere, which is caused by the seasonal meridional migration of the areas of the maximum convergence of Ekman transport. All subpolar and subtropical OFZ reveal a pronounced quasi-decadal (7–10 years) variability, manifested in the variations of their intensity and latitudinal position of the zones’ cores. Strengthening of the SST gradient is accompanied by a displacement of the zones’ cores to the north in both hemispheres for subpolar OFZ, while subtropical OFZ cores migrate to the poles in this situation. Positive correlations between the maximum magnitude of the meridional gradient of zonally averaged SST and meridional shear of zonal wind (which is an estimate of the Ekman convergence intensity) were found for all subpolar and subtropical OFZ. Variability of the latitudinal position of subpolar OFZ cores is associated with the Ekman advection variability due to zonal wind variations (strengthening of zonal wind results in a shift of subpolar OFZ cores to the south/north in the Northern/Southern hemispheres). A period of the variability of the North Pacific equatorial OFZ is 4–5 years and is determined by the variability of the ENSO system. During the El Niño events, the sharp decrease of the intensity of the equatorial OFZ take place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kim, H.; Kim, M.-S.; Kim, Y.-K.; Yoo, S.-H., and Lee, H.-J., 2017. Numerical weather prediction for mitigating the fatal loss by the meteo-tsunami incidence on the west coast of Korean Peninsula. In: Lee, J.L.; Griffiths, T.; Lotan, A.; Suh, K.-S., and Lee, J. (eds.), The 2nd International Water Safety Symposium. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 79, pp. 119-123. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The west coast of Korean Peninsula is an area where casualties and property damages by meteo-tsunamis from the Yellow Sea have been reported. A case in point is the event with an estimated maximum amplitude of 240 cm in Yeonggwang (YG) on 31 March 2007. Many studies have been carried out since then in Korea. These researches focused primarily on the oceanographic aspects ( e.g., the resonance between the atmosphere and ocean). They wanted to calculate the resonance effects by the propagation velocity and direction of meteo-tsunami. On the other hand, there were no sufficient atmospheric observation data on the sea, and it was inadequate to explain the various interactions between the atmosphere and ocean. Therefore, the weather research and forecast (WRF) model was used to predict the various detailed meteorological factors ( e.g., air pressure, wind vector) on the open sea. This was performed on representative meteo-tsunami events induced by four synoptic weather types. As a result, the numerical weather model, WRF, projected various gridded atmospheric information on the Yellow Sea, and the main atmospheric forcing ( e.g., pressure jump line, high pressure system) of the four meteo-tsunami events could be indicated. The numerical weather modeling showed the potential to predict the coastal disaster caused by the meteo-tsunami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hatteras coastal ocean is centrally located along the east coast of the 48 contiguous United States, offshore of Cape Hatteras in a complex land/ocean/atmosphere region where major ocean currents of differing temperatures and salinities meet and interact, where the atmosphere fluctuates on a wide range of time scales, and where atmosphere-ocean interactions vary both spatially and temporally. The Gulf Stream current typically leaves its contact with the continental margin here. Continental shelf currents from the north and from the south converge here, resulting in a net shelf-to-ocean transport of shelf waters that carry important water properties and constituents. The two major drivers of these shelf currents and exchanges are the atmosphere and the oceanic Gulf Stream. Atmospheric driving of the Hatteras coastal ocean is through surface wind stress and heat flux across the air-sea interface. The complexity and importance of this region motivated the NSF-sponsored PEACH research program during 2017–2018 (PEACH: Processes driving Exchange At Cape Hatteras). In this paper, we utilize the substantial number of observations available during PEACH to describe the atmospheric forcing of the ocean then. Atmospheric conditions are described in terms of two seasons: the warm season (May to mid-September), with predominantly mild northeastward winds punctuated by occasional tropical cyclones (TCs); and the cool season (mid-September through April), with a nearly continuous, northeastward progression of energetic extratropical cyclones (ETCs) through the region. Cool season ETCs force the region with strong wind stress and ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux episodes, each with a time-scale of several days. Wind stress fluctuation magnitudes typically exceed mean stress magnitudes in each season by a factor of 3–5. These stresses account for just over 40% of the total current variability in the region, showing the wind to be a major driver of the ocean here. Atmosphere-ocean heat flux is typically into the ocean throughout the warm season (~100 W m-2); it is essentially always out of the ocean during the cool season (~500 W m-2 or more). New results herein include: southward intraseasonal oscillations of the jet stream's position drove the strongest ETCs (including one "bomb" cyclone); and during the 41 years leading up to and including PEACH, the season-averaged number and strength of atmospheric cyclones passing over the Hatteras coastal ocean have shown little long-term change. Looking ahead, the NSF Pioneer Array is scheduled to be relocated to the northern portion of the Hatteras coastal ocean in 2024, and the NASA SWOT satellite has begun its ocean topography mission, which has a ground-track cross-over here. • Wind stress and air-sea heat fluxes drive the Hatteras coastal ocean variability. • These forcing vary between the warm season and the cool season. • Cool season extratropical cyclones (ETCs) drive the strongest stresses and fluxes. • Newly discovered cascading events are a cool season shelf water export process. • Little change in ETC numbers & strength has been found in the past 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958–2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle feeding in feedlot pens produces large amounts of manure and animal urine. Manure solutions resulting from surface runoff are composed of numerous chemical constituents whose leaching causes salinization of the soil profile. There is a relatively large number of studies on preferential flow characterization and modeling in clayed soils. However, research on water flow and solute transport derived from cattle feeding operations in fine-textured soils under naturally occurring precipitation events is less frequent. A field monitoring and modeling investigation was conducted at two plots on a fine-textured soil near a feedlot pen in Argentina to assess the potential of solute leaching into the soil profile. Soil pressure head and chloride concentration of the soil solution were used in combination with HYDRUS-1D numerical model to simulate water flow and chloride transport resorting to the concept of mobile/immobile—MIM water for solute transport. Pressure head sensors located at different depths registered a rapid response to precipitation suggesting the occurrence of preferential flow-paths for infiltrating water. Cracks and small fissures were documented at the field site where the % silt and % clay combined is around 94%. Chloride content increased with depth for various soil pressure head conditions, although a dilution process was observed as precipitation increased. The MIM approach improved numerical results at one of the tested sites where the development of cracks and macropores is likely, obtaining a more dynamic response in comparison with the advection–dispersion equation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An upwelling center has been frequently observed on the shelf break of the East China Sea (ECS) off northeastern Taiwan, where the Kuroshio encounters an abrupt shoaling topography. The region is also located under the track of Asian dust (AD) storms and frequently disturbed by typhoons. To examine the seasonal nutrient dynamics of the upwelling and the potential impacts of these episodic events, transect stations across the upwelling center were visited at intervals of 1–3 months from November 2003 to January 2005. The results of the water temperature profiles indicated that the upwelling persisted throughout the year with the most intensified events occurring in winter. Seasonally, a higher nitrate concentration was observed during the stronger upwelling period. The highest nitrate value was however observed during an AD storm, with an average value of 8.3 μM for the top 30 m. Interestingly, the N/P ratio was larger than 16 during these episodic events, and the N/P ratios were equal to or smaller than 16 during other periods. On average, the estimated values from wet deposition constituted 17.3% of the total estimated nitrogen input. This suggests that atmospheric deposition, particularly during the episodic events, might be an important external nutrient source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advection of anthropogenic aerosols from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and dust aerosols from distant deserts towards a high-altitude station Merak, in the trans-Himalayan region are reported during June–July 2011. In order to differentiate the advection event, aerosol optical properties were examined during aged background conditions at the site. During the aged background conditions, aerosol optical depth (AOD at 500 nm) and Angstrom exponent ( α ) at the station were ∼0.06 and 1.36, respectively which were increased to 0.13 and 1.62, respectively during the advection event. Further, a strong signature of fine-mode aerosol volume size distribution, dominated by absorbing aerosols, was observed during the advection event. The average atmospheric forcing during the aged background condition was found to be 0.57 Wm −2 (with corresponding heating rate of 0.05 Kday −1 ) and these results were enhanced to 2.58 Wm −2 (with corresponding heating rate of 0.22 Kday −1 ) during the advection event. The present study reveals that during the advection event, heating rate in the atmosphere was increased by about four times than the aged background condition. Such atmospheric warming in the region may influence the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and consequently it may effect the local atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Community Climate System Model, version 4 ( CCSM4) is evaluated against reanalysis data for the late-twentieth century (1955-2005), with a focus on the ecologically and commercially important Bering Sea in the subarctic Pacific. Several atmospheric variables including surface-air temperature, sea level pressure, wind strength, and direction were evaluated due to their relevance to large marine ecosystems. Simulated spatial patterns of climatological surface-air temperature over the Bering Sea are generally well simulated despite some subregional biases as large as +3 °C during autumn and −5 °C during winter. Interannual variability of simulated surface-air temperature exceeds that of the reanalysis by a factor of nearly 1.5. Model simulations show an under-simulated Siberian high and a large northwest displacement of the Aleutian Low-pressure centre. Further, sea level pressure over the Bering Sea is under-simulated in winter and fall by more than 8 hPa, and over-simulated in summer by more than 5 hPa. Interannual variability in simulated sea level pressure is nearly twice as large as observed. In general, the CCSM4 shows an improved representation of both monthly mean surface-air temperature and sea level pressure over the subarctic Pacific relative to its predecessor, the CCSM3. Despite these advances, there is still a clear need for improvements in the model's representation of high-latitude atmospheric circulation in order to achieve proper atmospheric forcing of marine ecosystem models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmosphere-ocean interactions are known to dominate seasonal to decadal sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea. In this study an atmospheric proxy for the observed sea level variability in the German Bight is introduced. Monthly mean sea level (MSL) time series from 13 tide gauges located in the German Bight and one virtual station record are evaluated in comparison to sea level pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. A quasi-linear relationship between MSL in the German Bight and sea level pressure over Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula is found. This relationship is used (1) to evaluate the atmospheric contribution to MSL variability in hindcast experiments over the period from 1871-2008 with data from the twentieth century reanalysis v2 (20CRv2), (2) to isolate the high frequency meteorological variability of MSL from longer-term changes, (3) to derive ensemble projections of the atmospheric contribution to MSL until 2100 with eight different coupled global atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCM's) under the A1B emission scenario and (4) two additional projections for one AOGCM (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) under the B1 and A2 emission scenarios. The hindcast produces a reasonable good reconstruction explaining approximately 80 % of the observed MSL variability over the period from 1871 to 2008. Observational features such as the divergent seasonal trend development in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. larger trends from January to March compared to the rest of the year, and regional variations along the German North Sea coastline in trends and variability are well described. For the period from 1961 to 1990 the Kolmogorov-Smirnow test is used to evaluate the ability of the eight AOGCMs to reproduce the observed statistical properties of MSL variations. All models are able to reproduce the statistical distribution of atmospheric MSL. For the target year 2100 the models point to a slight increase in the atmospheric component of MSL with generally larger changes during winter months (October-March). Largest MSL changes in the order of ~5-6 cm are found for the high emission scenario A2, whereas the moderate B1 and intermediate A1B scenarios lead to moderate changes in the order of ~3 cm. All models point to an increasing atmospheric contribution to MSL in the German Bight, but the uncertainties are considerable, i.e. model and scenario uncertainties are in the same order of magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the availability of several atmospheric reanalyses (e.g. ERA-Interim) there exists both considerable uncertainty in surface forcing fields for ice/ocean modelling and sensitivity to the choice of product used. Here we introduce a relatively high-resolution alternative forcing dataset for ice-ocean models derived from the Canadian Meteorological Centre's (CMC) global deterministic prediction system (GDPS). A set of daily 30 h reforecasts is produced using the GDPS 33 km resolution model providing hourly atmospheric forcing fields for the period 2002-2011. The CMC GDPS reforecasts (CGRF) are compared with ERA-Interim and several observational datasets to evaluate their suitability for forcing ocean models. In particular, the surface temperature, humidity and winds of the CGRF show equivalent biases to those found in ERA-interim. Moreover, the higher resolution of the CGRF permit a more detailed representation of atmospheric structures and topographic steering, resulting in finer-scale coastal features and wind-stress curl. Although the CGRF dataset is not a reanalysis and thus is expected to be less well constrained by available observations, its higher resolution and small bias make it an attractive alternative for forcing ice-ocean models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We analyzed the surface ocean response to synoptic variability of wind and heat fluxes through numerical modeling. [•] No major changes are introduced by synoptic variability to mean fields of currents and SST. [•] Surface EKE and diffusivities are increased by synoptic wind, particularly south of 37°S. [•] Prominent role of wind-driven upwelling cycles to explain coastal SST variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000–2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~−9hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz–Alboran system. The signal of this anomaly is also seen in time coefficients of the most significant EOF modes. The predictability of the exchanges for future climate is discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] Phase II of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) is introduced. [•] Solutions from CORE-II simulations from eighteen participating models are presented. [•] Mean states in the North Atlantic with a focus on AMOC are examined. [•] The North Atlantic solutions differ substantially among the models. [•] Many factors, including parameterization choices, contribute to these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The investigation of larval dispersal and retention, their variability and dependence on wind conditions, has become a major topic in fisheries research owing to potential effects on stock recruitment and stock structuring. The present study quantifies the wind-induced variability of larval retention of herring in a highly productive coastal lagoon of the Western Baltic Sea. This lagoon, the Greifswalder Bodden, represents the main spawning area of Western Baltic Spring-Spawning Herring, a stock that has recently undergone a continuous decline in recruitment. The study tests whether this decline was related to changes in larval retention, more precisely to changes in wind conditions, the main forcing of the lagoon's circulation. To answer this, a model approach was applied. Larvae were tracked as Lagrangian drifters under constant and variable wind conditions, examining the main drift patterns and reconstructing the incidents during the period of recruitment decline. For the latter, weekly cohorts of virtual larvae were released in the lagoon over the entire spawning period (April-June; >16 weeks). The fraction of retained larvae per cohort was related to observed larval abundances. On this basis, a new retention index was defined to evaluate the annual larval retention. The results presented cannot explain the observed recruitment decline but characterize the lagoon as an important larval retention area by virtue of unsteady wind conditions that prevent a steady outflow of larvae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The dominance of shifts in the location of the Gulf Stream (GS) in the local heat balance was observed in an hourly 15-month record of unprecedented surface mooring measurements at a site in the western North Atlantic occupied from November 2005 to January 2007. Instrumentation on the buoy provided a high quality record of air-sea exchanges of momentum, heat, and freshwater flux; and oceanographic sensors recorded ocean variability in the upper 640m. The mooring was at times in the GS and at other times north of the GS. Our intent was to isolate the local oceanic response to the atmosphere from the influence of the GS shifts. A one-dimensional heat budget analysis indicated that the advective contribution from the GS shifts dwarfed the heat contribution by atmospheric forcing and therefore played the dominant role for upper oceanic thermal variability during the whole time record. A GS case study (i.e., when the surface mooring was in the GS), isolated the upper oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing in the GS and supported the critical role of GS shifts in total oceanic heat content. Through both an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and by referencing temperatures to that observed at 200m, the impact of GS shifts and atmospheric forcing were decomposed, allowing the local oceanic thermal response to be isolated. This local oceanic response was particularly prominent during the period of sustained heating during summer. A case study of summer conditions revealed a near surface flow consistent with Ekman dynamics within a shallow, warm ocean mixed layer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9-64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Simulating the oceanic circulation in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is a challenging issue due to the paucity of wind stress products of a sufficiently high spatial resolution to simulate the observed upwelling dynamics. In this study, we present the results of regional simulations of the Humboldt current system (Peru and Chile coasts) to assess the value of a statistical downscaling model of surface forcing. Twin experiments that differ only from the momentum flux forcing are carried out over the 1992–2000 period that encompasses the major 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña event. It is shown that the mean biases of the oceanic circulation can be drastically reduced simply substituting the mean wind field of NCEP reanalysis by a higher resolution mean product (QuikSCAT). The statistical downscaling model improves further the simulations allowing more realistic intraseasonal and interannual coastal undercurrent variability, which is notoriously strong off Central Peru and Central Chile. Despite some limitations, our results suggest that the statistical approach may be useful to regional oceanic studies of present and future climates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The persistence barrier of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific was investigated and compared with the ENSO spring persistence barrier. The results show that SSTAs in the central western North Pacific (CWNP) have a persistence barrier in summer: the persistence of SSTAs in the CWNP shows a significant decline in summer regardless of the starting month. Mechanisms of the summer persistence barrier in the CWNP are different from those of the spring persistence barrier of SSTAs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The phase locking of SSTAs to the annual cycle does not explain the CWNP summer persistence barrier. Remote ENSO forcing has little linear influence on the CWNP summer persistence barrier, compared with local upper-ocean process and atmospheric forcing in the North Pacific. Starting in wintertime, SSTAs extend down to the deep winter mixed layer then become sequestered beneath the shallow summer mixed layer, which is decoupled from the surface layer. Thus, wintertime SSTAs do not persist through the following summer. Starting in summertime, persistence of summer SSTAs until autumn can be explained by the atmospheric forcing through a positive SSTAs-cloud/radiation feedback mechanism because the shallow summertime mixed layer is decoupled from the temperature anomalies at depth, then the following autumn-winter-spring, SSTAs persist. Thus, summer SSTAs in the CWNP have a long persistence, showing a significant decline in the following summer. In this way, SSTAs in the CWNP show a persistence barrier in summer regardless of the starting month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The long-term variability of the physical and biochemical structure of oxic and suboxic layers in the Black Sea was studied using a one-dimensional coupled hydrophysical and biogeochemical model. The focus was on the correlation between atmospheric forcing (2 m air temperature and dew point temperature, surface level pressure, surface wind) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation in and the regional responses. The quality of model performance was demonstrated using observed vertical and temporal distribution of biogeochemical variables. It was shown that during 1960–2000, the long-term variability of simulated winter-mean SST in the Black Sea correlated reasonably well with the variability of 2 m air temperature. Furthermore, the thermal state of the upper ocean impacted largely on the variability of biogeochemical variables, such as oxygen, nitrate and phytoplankton concentration. The tele-connection between North Atlantic Oscillation and Black Sea biogeochemistry was manifested in a different way for the specific time-interval 1960–2000; the corresponding regime shifts were thus associated with the large scale forcing. One such extreme event occurred in 1976 leading to a pronounced shift in the oxygen and hydrogen sulfide state. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: At Aveiro lagoon (Portuguese northwest coast) bivalve contamination with diarrhoetic shellfish poisoning toxins (DSTs), okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysistoxin-2 (DTX2), is a recurrent annual phenomenon seriously affecting seafood safety. The influence of meteorological parameters was studied to understand accumulation of DSTs in mussels, related to the blooming of the causative toxic microalgae, belonging to genus Dinophysis. Two simplified models were useful in predicting the accumulation of DSTs in blue mussels from this lagoon. Either the May river drainage or the rainfall accumulated from January through May could adequately predict the severity of OA accumulated from predation upon Dinophysis acuminata during June/July. In both cases a linear relationship was obtained, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 or greater. Winds with a west direction favour coastal concentration of Dinophysis acuta in Aveiro region. Both OA and DTX2 contamination increased exponentially in September/October with the cumulative number of days with W-wind orientation in the preceding August (correlation coefficients greater than 0.92). This relationship was attributed to the quadratic effect of wind stress on surface currents. August is a transitional month, when the continental runoff effect upon Dinophysis acuminata can still be observed and Dinophysis acuta advection may be promoted by westerly winds occurring in July. The frequency of periods with northerly winds in July can halt accumulation of toxins derived from Dinophysis acuta. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Among the numerous processes that govern the functioning of a lake ecosystem, the regime of dissolved oxygen (DO) is of primary importance. The DO content is strongly affected by the temperature regime, mixing conditions and by the duration of the ice-covered period. These are formed due to atmospheric forcing and are, therefore, subject to variations in regional climate. Despite the large amount of data revealing the physical effect on the biological and chemical regimes in lakes, there is still insufficient understanding, both qualitative and quantitative, of how a lake ecosystem would be affected by changes in the lake temperature and mixing conditions due to changes in the atmospheric forcing. Below, the study of shallow lakes' response to climatic changes using the coupled FLake FLakeEco modelling system is presented. The results obtained reveal the extreme vulnerability of the lakes' ecosystems to changes in atmospheric forcing. In 'future' climate the permanent existence of potentially dangerous anaerobic zones in shallow lakes is expected. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by: (1) the reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the lakes due to increased temperature; and (2) strengthened density stratification of the water columns which would prevent aeration of the near-bottom layers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Mediterranean basin features a semi-enclosed sea, where interactions and feedbacks between the atmosphere and the Sea at various temporal and spatial scales play a predominant role in the regional climate. This study analyzes the Mediterranean Sea response in sensitivity experiments conducted by driving the NEMO-MED12 oceanic model in perpetual mode with various atmospheric forcings, all produced by the WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model, but differing by their resolutions: two horizontal resolutions (20km at basin scale and 6.7km in the North-Western [NWE] area) and two temporal resolutions (daily and three-hourly). The atmospheric fields available from August 1998 to July 1999 are in good agreement with estimates derived from satellite data. The heat budget of the Mediterranean Sea represents an heat loss of 5W/m2 and the annual freshwater budget is −1.04m, in agreement with climatologies. An increase in the spatial resolution in the NWE area modifies the modeled circulation from −10% to +15% for the SST, from −30% to +50% for the SSS, from −10% to +30% for the MLD and from −10% to +30% for the EKE in surface. The increase in the wind speed with a better chanelling by the land orography enhances in particular the oceanic convection process in the NWE area. On the other hand, the increase in the temporal resolution reduces the convection process, because of the diurnal restratification of the oceanic upper layer. It also reduces the surface parameters high-frequency variability, whereas it increases the EKE values in surface, due to the rapid response to the wind. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article presents a study on the winter-mean sea surface temperature's (SST) long-term variability in Black and Aegean Seas and its correlation with several atmospheric forcing. It states that satellite and reanalysis data from 1982 to 2004 were used examine the correlation with the atmospheric forcing which include surface air temperature (SAT). Results show that SST variability is correlated with the SAT variability while SAT is correlated with the meridional component of the surface wind.

Abstract: We develop, calibrate and test a dataset intended to drive global ocean hindcasts simulations of the last five decades. This dataset provides surface meteorological variables needed to estimate air-sea fluxes and is built from 6-hourly surface atmospheric state variables of ERA40. We first compare the raw fields of ERA40 to the CORE.v1 dataset of , used here as a reference, and discuss our choice to use daily radiative fluxes and monthly precipitation products extracted from satellite data rather than their ERA40 counterparts. Both datasets lead to excessively high global imbalances of heat and freshwater fluxes when tested with a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature. After identifying unrealistic time discontinuities (induced by changes in the nature of assimilated observations) and obvious global and regional biases in ERA40 fields (by comparison to high quality observations), we propose a set of corrections. Tropical surface air humidity is decreased from 1979 onward, representation of Arctic surface air temperature is improved using recent observations and the wind is globally increased. These corrections lead to a significant decrease of the excessive positive global imbalance of heat. Radiation and precipitation fields are then submitted to a small adjustment (in zonal mean) that yields a near-zero global imbalance of heat and freshwater. A set of 47-year-long simulations is carried out with the coarse-resolution (2°×2°) version of the NEMO OGCM to assess the sensitivity of the model to the proposed corrections. Model results show that each of the proposed correction contributes to improve the representation of central features of the global ocean circulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: High, small-scale SST variability (6 °C over 5–10 km) observed South of Martha''s Vineyard during the low-wind component of the Coupled Boundary Layers Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST-Low) oceanographic field program in August 2003 is investigated using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), with atmospheric forcing provided by the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®). 1 [1] COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory. The ocean model includes tidal boundary forcing by the eight major tidal constituents, which is superimposed on the non-tidal lateral boundary conditions obtained from the 1/8° global NCOM real-time hindcast. The simulation is conducted with a high-resolution, 200-m grid, with bathymetry from the NGDC 3-arc-second Coastal Relief Model. The COAMPS fields, tidal forcing and NCOM results are evaluated with the CBLAST-Low observations and previous results. Both the simulation and observation analyses reveal that SST variability south of Martha''s Vineyard is significant on August 18 and 25 and is strongly related to the cooling events on August 17 to 18 and August 24 to 25. The northeast winds passing through Muskeget Channel generate sharp horizontal SST gradients on August 18 by accelerating the westward transport of cold water from the cold, tidally-mixed Nantucket Shoals and by wind-induced upwelling and surface-cooling-induced vertical mixing. The mechanism of SST change on August 25 is differentiated from the change on August 18 by the northwest winds being unfavorable to the westward transport of cold water. The SST cooling on August 25 is mainly caused by local vertical mixing induced by heat lost. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The relationship between various atmospheric variables at the sea surface and climatological monthly means of sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated over the global ocean. The goal is to quantify the change in SST that results solely from variations in a particular atmospheric variable. This is accomplished using a series of numerical simulations from an atmospherically-forced ocean general circulation model (OGCM). It is first demonstrated that SST variations at all latitudes are generally strongly and positively correlated with increases in near-surface air temperature, and vapor mixing ratio and net shortwave radiation at the sea surface, while they are often moderately and negatively correlated with increases in near-surface wind speed. There is only a weak and negative relationship between variations in SST and those in net longwave radiation at the sea surface. Variations in the net shortwave radiation and vapor mixing ratio are found to have more influence in driving the seasonal cycle of SST than other atmospheric variables. Global averages of slope values from the least squares fit indicate that a 1°C change in air temperature results in ≈0.2°C change in SST. Similarly, a 1gkg−1 change in vapor mixing ratio gives ≈0.4°C change in SST, and 10Wm−2 change in shortwave (longwave) radiation results in ≈0.13°C (≈0.07°C) change in SST. All these values vary regionally, and are neither constant nor in the same direction everywhere. In addition, some atmospheric variables are already correlated to each other. Therefore, a fractional factorial design which involves the joint effects of all atmospheric variables on SST at the same time is further applied. Results from the factorial design are somewhat consistent with the simple linear regression analysis, in that a 2°C increase in air temperature can typically give an increase in SST, generally ranging between 0.5 and 0.8°C over the global ocean. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There are two ways of external forcing of the lower ionosphere, the region below an altitude of about 100km: (1) From above, which is directly or indirectly of solar origin. (2) From below, which is directly or indirectly of atmospheric origin. The external forcing of solar origin consists of two general factors – solar ionizing radiation variability and space weather. The solar ionization variability consist mainly from the 11-year solar cycle, the 27-day solar rotation and solar flares, strong flares being very important phenomenon in the daytime lower ionosphere due to the enormous increase of the solar X-ray flux resulting in temporal terminating of MF and partly LF and HF radio wave propagation due to heavy absorption of radio waves. Monitoring of the sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs – effects of solar flares in the lower ionosphere) served in the past as an important tool of monitoring the solar activity and its impacts on the ionosphere. Space weather effects on the lower ionosphere consist of many different but often inter-related phenomena, which govern the lower ionosphere variability at high latitudes, particularly at night. The most important space weather phenomenon for the lower ionosphere is strong geomagnetic storms, which affect substantially both the high- and mid-latitude lower ionosphere. As for forcing from below, it is caused mainly by waves in the neutral atmosphere, i.e. planetary, tidal, gravity and infrasonic waves. The most important and most studied waves are planetary and gravity waves. Another channel of the troposphere coupling to the lower ionosphere is through lightning-related processes leading to sprites, blue jets etc. and their ionospheric counterparts. These phenomena occur on very short time scales. The external forcing of the lower ionosphere has observationally been studied using predominantly ground-based methods exploiting in various ways the radio wave propagation, and by sporadic rocket soundings. All the above phenomena are briefly mentioned and some of them are treated in more detail. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations. The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Bulk heat flux parameterization is an increasingly popular technique for forcing non-coupled ocean models. If sea surface temperature (SST) from the model is colder (warmer) than observed, then the net heat flux will be higher (lower) than observed; thus, bulk parameterizations tend to keep model SST close to observational SST on long time scales. However, bulk parameterizations imply neither strong damping of SST variability nor strong relaxation to near-surface (e.g., at 10 m) air temperature (T a). This is demonstrated using SST simulations from a 0.72°×0.72° cos(lat) (longitude×latitude) resolution global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that does not include assimilation of any SST data or explicit relaxation to any SST climatology, but does use bulk heat fluxes. Results are discussed when climatological wind and thermal atmospheric forcing for HYCOM are constructed from three different archived numerical weather prediction (NWP) products: (1) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 15-year Re-Analysis during 1979–1993 (ERA-15), (2) ECMWF 40-year Re-Analysis (ERA-40) during 1979–2002, and (3) the Common Ocean Reference Experiment Corrected Normal Year forcing version 1.0 (CORE-CNY) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re-analysis which spans 1948–2002. To investigate the implications of the bulk heat flux approach as relaxation to SST and T a, HYCOM SST simulations are used to demonstrate that model SST errors with respect to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST climatology do not look like T a −SST fields from NWP products. Such a result is confirmed for all simulations forced with ERA-15, ERA-40 and CORE-CNY, separately. Overall, global averages of mean HYCOM SST error are 0.2 °C (1.5 °C), 0.4 °C (1.7 °C) and 0.6 °C (2.3 °C) with respect to NOAA SST (NWP T a) climatology when the model uses atmospheric forcing from ERA-15, ERA-40 and CORE-CNY, respectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ocean circulation influences nearly all aspects of the marine ecosystem. This study describes the water circulation patterns on time scales from hours to years across Torres Strait and adjacent gulfs and seas, including the north of the Great Barrier Reef. The tridimensional circulation model incorporated realistic atmospheric and oceanographic forcing, including winds, waves, tides, and large-scale regional circulation taken from global model outputs. Simulations covered a hindcast period of 8 years (i.e. 01/03/1997–31/12/2004), allowing the tidal, seasonal, and interannual flow characteristics to be investigated. Results indicated that the most energetic current patterns in Torres Strait were strongly dominated by the barotropic tide and its spring-neap cycle. However, longer-term flow through the strait was mainly controlled by prevailing winds. A dominant westward drift developed in summer over the southeasterly trade winds season, which then weakened and reversed in winter over the northwesterly monsoon winds season. The seasonal flow through Torres Strait was strongly connected to the circulation in the north of the Great Barrier Reef, but showed little connectivity with the coastal circulation in the Gulf of Papua. Interannual variability in Torres Strait was highest during the monsoon period, reflecting variability in wind forcing including the timing of the monsoon. The characteristics of the circulation were also discussed in relation to fine sediment transport. Turbidity level in Torres Strait is expected to peak at the end of the monsoon, while it is likely to be at a low at the end of the trade season, eventually leading to a critically low bottom light level which constitutes a severe risk of seagrass dieback. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The surface salinity response to changes of various external forcings and model parameters is investigated in a regional 1/3° configuration of the NEMO-OPA model implemented over the eastern North-Atlantic subtropical Ocean. Fourteen realistic climatological simulations are run. By default, neither relaxation to climatological surface salinity nor temperature is included. Forcing fields and parameters expected to impact the surface salinity are modified. These include: the wind stress, the surface temperature, wind speed and relative humidity entering the bulk calculation for sensible and latent heat fluxes, the precipitation, the data specified at open boundaries, the lateral viscosity operator, the salt lateral diffusivity, the vertical mixing scheme, the on/off switch of the double diffusion parameterization, the river runoffs and the SSS/SST restoring terms. The SSS standard deviation over this ensemble of model simulations is of the order of 0.1psu, which is also the order of the annual cycle of the surface salinity field in this area. In this experimental framework, the wind stress is found to have the largest impact on the model SSS, both in terms of mean field and annual variability. The sensitivity to the precipitation, atmospheric temperature, open boundary external data, and to the relaxation to climatological SSS and SST, is also significant. Of all the model parameterizations, the lateral salt diffusivity is the one associated to the strongest surface salinity model response. This work allows the identification of the main sources of error for model surface salinity. It paves the way for a more comprehensive investigation of SSS model error statistics, which is needed for future data assimilation experiments motivated by the close launch of the new SSS-observing SMOS and Aquarius satellite missions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A nearshore wave, tide and current prediction system was demonstrated during the MREA04 Trial in the Portuguese coastal waters near Pinheiro da Cruz during the early spring of 2004. Daily forecasts of regional scale wave and tidal information and nearshore waves and currents were generated in DIOPS utilizing a suite of regional and nearshore models forced with data from meteorological and oceanographic production centers. A limited beach experiment was conducted with three Nortek current meters deployed in the surf zone and a video imagery system to generate 10-min time exposures used to identify the locations of wave breaking. In this study, Delft3D, a coastal hydrodynamic modeling system, capable of simulating hydrodynamic processes due to waves, tides, rivers, winds and coastal currents, is used to predict the nearshore wave and longshore currents near Pinheiro da Cruz. The nearshore bathymetry used in this study was based on LIDAR data collected in February 2000. Delft3D shows mixed results when compared with the measured wave height and nearshore currents. Improved Delft3D results can be achieved in the future if migrating sand bars can be measured and included in the modeling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A comparative analysis was conducted on climate variability in four sub-arctic seas: the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea shelf, the Labrador Sea, and the Barents Sea. Based on data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the focus was on air–sea interactions, which influence ice cover, ocean currents, mixing, and stratification on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. The seasonal cycles of the area-weighted averages of sea-level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and heat fluxes show remarkable similarity among the four sub-arctic seas. With respect to variation in climate, all four seas experience changes of comparable magnitude on interannual to interdecadal time scales, but with different timing. Since 2000 warm SAT anomalies were found during most of the year in three of the four sub-arctic seas, with the exception of the Sea of Okhotsk. A seesaw (out of phase) pattern in winter SAT anomalies between the Labrador and the Barents Sea in the Atlantic sector is observed during the past 50 years before 2000; a similar type of co-variability between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea shelf in the Pacific is only evident since 1970s. Recent positive anomalies of net heat flux are more prominent in winter and spring in the Pacific sectors, and in summer in the Atlantic sectors. There is a reduced magnitude in wind mixing in the Sea of Okhotsk since 1980, in the Barents Sea since 2000, and in early spring/late winter in the Bering Sea shelf since 1995. Reduced sea-ice areas are seen over three out of four (except the Sea of Okhotsk) sub-arctic seas in recent decades, particularly after 2000 based on combined in situ and satellite observations (HadISST). This analysis provides context for the pan-regional synthesis of the linkages between climate and marine ecosystems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]