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Analysis of rainfall distribution and its changing pattern plays a vital role in managing water resources in a region. This work examined the spatio-temporal variability and trend of rainfall on yearly and season-wise scales during 1971–2013 in the Wainganga river basin situated in middle India. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was implemented for identifying the temporal variation in rainfall trends. The magnitude of this changing trend was estimated by applying Sen's slope (SS) method. A paired sample t-test was also employed to appraise the statistical significance of changes in rainfall data. The results of MK and SS tests show both upward and downward trends. The results show positive and negative trends in the south-eastern and northwestern parts of the study area for annual rainfall. The monsoon rainfall also shows very close proximity with annual rainfall data trends. The t-test states that the observed changes in precipitation are statistically significant. After trend and pattern analysis, state-space models (SSMs) were used to predict rainfall for future scenarios. Four SSMs (single, double, and triple exponential, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)) were employed for rainfall prediction. The analysis shows that the ARIMA is best for rainfall prediction with architecture of (0,0,0) (2,1,0) and can be used in Wainganga River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The temperature is rising in lower troposphere and declining in lower stratosphere. • Water vapor has increasing trend in lower part of troposphere. • O 3 is rising in lower/lower-mid troposphere, while declining in lower stratosphere. • Total column integrated methane has a significant increasing trend. • Total carbon-monoxide has not shown any significant trend. The present work has been carried to analyze the changes in trend of temperature, water vapor and ozone profiles at different atmospheric layers, total column integrated methane (TCH4) and total column integrated carbon-monoxide (TCO) over the Indian region. The atmospheric column was divided into few atmospheric layers: surface-850 hPa, 850–500 hPa, 500–100 hPa, 100–50 hPa and 50–1 hPa. Monthly averages of these parameters were calculated from AIRS Level 2 Standard Products for a decade from 2003 to 2012. A non-parametric statistical test with seasonal modification was applied to check the trends of various parameters. Monthly means were used to examine the seasonal dependency in the trend, and allowing more information from the data to be used. The layer average temperature in surface-850 hPa layer has shown significant increase in overall annual trend over eastern part, southern part and averaged over whole India with an increase of 0.041 K/year, 0.034 K/year and 0.034 K/year, respectively. The overall trend was decreasing over all but southern parts in 100–50 hPa layer at the rate of 0.079 K/year over whole India. For water vapor trends, it has been found that layer integrated water vapor (LIWV) in surface-850 hPa layer has significant overall increasing trend over western part, southern part and averaged over whole India with the rate of increase of 0.555%/year, 0.598%/year and 0.486%/year respectively. For LIWV (850–500 hPa), only western part has significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.879%/year. However, LIWV in 500–100 hPa layer does not show any significant trend. Total water vapor (TWV) has shown significant annual increasing trend over all the parts except over the central part. The increasing trend has been estimated as 0.962%/year over whole India. The layer integrated ozone (LIOZ) in surface-850 hPa has significant increasing trend over western part (0.062%/year) and southern part (0.071%/year). In 500–100 hPa layer, the LIOZ has statistically significant decreasing trend over whole India at a rate of 0.112%/year. For LIOZ averaged over whole India in 100–50 hPa, there is significant decreasing trend with a rate of 0.273%/year. Overall, the ozone concentration is increasing near surface, whereas it is decreasing in lower stratosphere. The total column ozone (TOZ) has not shown any significant trend. The column integrated methane has shown an increasing trend (0.366%/year) over all parts of the country, whereas, TCO has not shown any significant trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]