Search

The EU power sector is under increasing pressure due to rising electricity demand and the need to meet decarbonisation targets. Member states have been active in investing in renewables and building capacity to increase their share of renewables in electricity generation. However, it is important to examine what progress each member state has made in the deployment of renewable energy for electricity generation and what factors influence gross electricity generation from renewable energy. In this study, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) analysis was used to examine the changes in EU-27 countries' gross electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES), wind, and solar PV from 2012 to 2021. The results show that the RES deployment per capita effect and the RES share effect were the main positive factors for the total gross electricity generation from RES in the EU. In contrast, the RES capacity productivity effect and the energy intensity effect had negative contributions. Population growth had a positive influence but was less significant than the other factors. The deployment of RES per capita effect was the main factor in the overall growth of gross electricity generation from RES in Northern Europe, Central Western Europe, and Central Eastern Europe, according to comparisons between the regional groups. RES share effect was the main driver in Southern Europe. The decrease in RES capacity productivity was the second most important factor influencing the variation in the amount of energy generated by RES in Northern Europe and Central Western Europe. The results could be used to develop more effective and tailored renewable energy policies that take into account the existing main drivers of RES, wind, and solar energy in each of the EU-27 member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study development patterns of Latvian electricity market. It is done based on a newly developed computer-aided simulation model. System dynamics approach was used to simulate long-term development of electricity sector in the region under the existing policy design. Results demonstrate that renewable energy sources have a high potential to integrate in the electricity generation balance. Important preconditions for this to happen are: presence of appropriate support measures, a continuous technological progress and fossil fuel price increase. Under such scenario around 70% carbon dioxide emission savings can be achieved by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the indicators that describe the overall efficiency of the district heating system and restrictions for its transition towards a 4th generation district heating system. The object of this case study is a district heating company with a modern biomass combined heat and power plant – “Fortum”, in Jelgava. Possible development scenarios for the district heating company moving towards a 4th generation district heating system were analysed. The scenarios were compared via technological, economic and bioeconomic indicators and evaluated for their restrictions for limiting long-term sustainable development. The scenarios which include production of new biomass products (bio-oil) are the most sustainable solutions that allow to increase the added value from 58 €/t wood to 80 €/t wood . The heat tariff was analysed in order to identify the economic feasibility of the development scenarios. Reducing tariffs by improving district heating’s operation is the only unsustainable solution for the district heating company because it reduces the company’s possibility to invest in future developments. It is concluded that bioeconomic development scenarios can support sustainability of the district heating systems. Development decisions need to be taken in due time before the consumption decreases because of energy efficiency measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the development of the non-Emissions Trading Scheme for the district heating systems. To select indicators characterizing overall operation of the non-Emissions Trading Scheme district heating system, the article analyses various aspects (type of fuel, temperature regime, level of building energy efficiency) that impact the development of a district heating system model, which strives to reach 4th generation district heating system and to reduces greenhouse emission gases. To determine efficiency rating of the district heating system, a multi-criteria model is developed using selected indicators. The most suitable temperature regime of district heating systems is analyzed for a new buildings and exiting dwelling area depending on end-user heat energy consumption. Research methodology includes algorithm with several modules. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates different district heating systems and identifies optimal solution of 12 scenarios taking into account different criteria. The TOPSIS tool is integrated to find the optimal solutions. Results of the multi-criteria analysis confirm that scenario that is the closest to the ideal solution from the point of view of district heating company, sharply differs from the best scenario of the developers. From the point of view of district heating company the optimal solution is the lowest temperature regime 60/30 and wood chips as energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes district heating system efficiency by using benchmarking system. The 26 biggest Latvian DH companies were taken as case study for analysis. Two main components were distinguished from existing district heating systems tariffs: cost of fuel in tariff and other costs. Non-linear regression model is used for benchmarking analysis. Equation, which describes other costs as dependent variable, whereas fuel part of costs in tariff as independent variable was obtained. Performance of Latvian district heating companies were evaluated by using various efficiency indicators describing systems technical, scale, dynamic and financial parameters. Data envelopment analysis was used for measuring efficiency of these companies by taking into account multiple factors. In order to indicate main parameters that influence heat energy tariff and efficiency of all district heating system, sensitivity analysis by using system dynamic model developed in previous study was carried out. The model finds out the possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating system in Latvia. Model includes the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at 80% share of the renewable energy. Moreover, matrix with district heating system efficiency parameters, which are most vital for optimization, was made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the transition from conventional district heating (DH) system to a 4th generation DH (4GDH) system using system dynamics modeling and economic feasibility analysis. Six alternative scenarios are studied. Energy saving measures reduce energy consumption, CO 2 emissions and installed capacity of heating equipment thus facilitating the transition of the DH system towards zero emission system. Reduction of the required installed heating capacity allows implementing a low-temperature regime for heat distribution networks. For four of the analyzed scenarios this regime was achieved without increase of electricity consumption for heat supply. Results show that the implementation of 4GDH depends on the policies applied. The research identifies a balance point between the implementation of energy efficiency measures at the source and at heat consumers’ side. The article shows how the price of a fossil fuel influence the share of heat energy production and the balance point between investment at the source and heat consumers side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research identifies and describes administrative procedures for implementing RES electricity generation infrastructure projects in Baltic and Nordic countries. The administrative processes of installing small to large solar parks and onshore wind farms for electricity generation were assessed, looking at several criteria such as the timeline, complexity, information availability, impact of public opinion, and local authorities (municipalities). The methodology developed allows evaluating administrative procedures using a multi-criteria analysis method, resulting in a single-score quantification that can be further utilized in complex energy simulation models. The obtained results allow identifying the potential recommendations for process optimization in the analysed countries. For instance, the introduction of a single point of contact as in Norway, the consolidation of the environmental impact assessment and spatial planning phases as in Finland, and the simplification of the microgeneration and small-scale installation permitting process as in Lithuania. • Administrative processes for installing solar PV parks and wind farms were evaluated based on 11 criteria. • Methodology developed allows for evaluating administrative procedures in different countries using MCDA. • The analyses provide a single-score quantification which can be further utilized in complex energy simulation models. • Transparency for installing wind farms and solar PV parks could be increased trough publicly available guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, a possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in Latvia is analyzed with the system dynamic modeling. Three policy instruments were included into the system dynamic model: subsidies, instrument for risk reduction and instrument for efficiency increase, and their impact on the system operation was analyzed. Six development scenarios are examined in the article, two of which are supplemented with the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at a different share of the renewable energy (60%, 80%, 95%). The heat tariff was used as the main indicator determining the pace and structure of the technology change. In the model the existing natural gas technology was included and three technologies of the renewable energy – biomass combustion equipment, solar collectors with the accumulation and heat pumps. Results of the modeling shows that scenario, at which no policy instruments are used, reduce CO 2 emissions for 58.6% until 2030; but it is possible to achieve a zero emission level, in case political instruments are used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union has given a long-term commitment towards a low-carbon society. Power sector is to play an important role in achieving ambitious emission reduction goals. This article presents results of a research aimed at evaluating development of the Baltic power system under current framework conditions. Special focus is put on renewable energy analysis to estimate the potential of power sector decarbonization. A dynamic energy-economy model was developed by applying system dynamics modelling approach in order to evaluate changes in the energy system till 2050. Underlying structure of the model is based on energy resource flows according to the national electricity mix of each Baltic State. The model calculates energy generation costs of each technology taking into account national support schemes. Based on cost estimation, the installed capacity of each energy resource is determined. Modelling results suggest that wind energy has the potential to become dominant in the Baltic region. This is explained by increasing competitiveness of wind-generated power price compared to fossil-fuel-based generation. Solar energy has the potential to become popular from 2025 onwards due to decreasing investment costs. The market share of other renewable electricity technologies, such as hydro and biomass, will continue to increase reaching maximum between 2020 and 2030. Biogas plants are still not expected to play considerable role in electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Latvian district heating system historically is characterized with a high share of imported natural gas. The paper looks at the situation where specific policy tools significantly increase the proportion of renewables, in particular of wood fuel, in the energy balance. Within this context a system dynamics model was developed to identify the most suitable policy from the long term perspective for the replacement of the fossil fuel with the local biomass at the district heating. The policy instruments included in the model are: national subsidies for replacement of fossil fuel technologies, short-term informative campaign to decrease the investment risks related to the use of wood fuel-based technologies, implementation of Research and Design strategies aimed at the increase of efficiency of the wood fuel technology, and implementation of the Emission Trading Scheme and the CO 2 taxation. The modelling results show that national level climate policy measures are substantial for promoting the use of renewable energy. The combinations of the above mentioned policy instruments significantly increase the share of wood fuel in the Latvian district heating system. In addition, the Emission Trading Scheme confirms its essential role in promoting the use of renewable energy within the district heating sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A zero-emission pathway for the Nordic and Baltic region in Europe is described based on the comprehensive policy and scenario analyses, accompanied by energy system modelling. The analyses show that a least-cost strategy would massively employ renewable energy, particularly in the power sector. Through strong coupling across energy sectors and countries, electricity would play a central role in the decarbonization of the main energy sectors. In particular power-to-heat conversion, where heat storage appears important in addition to existing hydropower. Technical and regulatory barriers in front of increased sector coupling and flexibility were identified, and policy measures are proposed to overcome these. In addition to a high carbon price, dynamic tariffs and taxation of electricity would be important to allow market signals for flexibility to reach end-users. A stronger power transmission connection from the Nordics to the mainland-Europe and the United Kingdom would be beneficial for the emission reductions and renewable energy use. The transition pathway analysis points out socio-technical issues such as social acceptance of large-scale new infrastructures (e.g., wind, cables). The energy system optimizations indicate that most of the investments needed for the zero-emission pathway until 2050 would take place already by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]