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Abstract: Objective: In some nursing home populations, antibiotic treatment may not reduce mortality following lower respiratory infection (LRI). To better inform treatment decisions, we determined influences on mortality following LRI among antibiotic-treated and non–antibiotic-treated residents in 2 populations. Design: Observational, prospective, cohort studies. Setting: Ninety-seven nursing homes (36 US, 61 Netherlands). Participants: Residents (1044 US, 513 Netherlands) who met a standardized study definition for LRI. Measurements: Demographics, symptoms and physical findings of LRI, functional status, major illness diagnoses, dementia status, treatments, and date of death within 6 months after diagnosis. Methods: We estimated a 2-period (0–14/15–90 days) weighted proportional hazards model of mortality for antibiotic-treated (n = 1280) and non–antibiotic-treated (n = 277) residents; both weights and regressors provide “doubly robust” risk adjustment—for LRI (illness) severity using a prognostic score and for nonrandom receipt of antibiotic treatment using a propensity score. Results: In both the United States and the Netherlands, 14-day mortality was associated with three factors—LRI severity, water intake at diagnosis, and antibiotic use (not directly by severe dementia)—that accounted for 82% or, sequentially, 39%, 42%, and 1% of the cross-national mortality difference. The LRI Severity Score (based only on at-diagnosis eating dependency, pulse rate, decreased alertness, and breathing difficulty, with adequate discrimination [c ≥ 0.74] and calibration, and cross-indexed to commonly used LRI mortality measures) was related to mortality through 90 days, regardless of treatment. With sufficient water intake at diagnosis, 14-day mortality was unrelated to not receiving antibiotic treatment (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.70–2.04); insufficient water intake was related to increased 14-day mortality with antibiotics (AHR, 1.90; 1.38–2.60) or without (AHR, 7.12; 4.83–10.5). After 14 days, relative mortality worsened for antibiotic-treated residents with insufficient water intake. Inadequate water intake was related to increased eating dependence at onset of the LRI (OR, 4.2; 3.0–5.8). Conclusion: LRI severity, water intake, and antibiotic use explain mortality in both studies and reconcile cross-study Dutch/US 14-day mortality differences. LRI severity, derived at 14 days, is related to mortality through 90 days, regardless of treatment, and is key to risk adjustment. With adequate hydration, the survival benefit from antibiotic use is nonsignificant. Conversely, hydration, even without antibiotic treatment, appears central to curative treatment. In LRI guidelines, treatment, and research, the relative benefits of antibiotics and hydration for curative treatment should be addressed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background. Determining prognosis for nursing home residents is important for care planning, but reliable prediction is difficult. We compared performance of four long-term mortality risk indices for nursing home residents—the Minimum Data Set Mortality Risk Index (MMRI), a recent revision to this index (MMRI-R), and the original and revised Flacker–Kiely models. Methods. We conducted a prospective cohort study in one 92-bed facility in Missouri. Participants were 130 residents who received a Minimum Data Set assessment from May through October, 2007. We collected the Minimum Data Set variables needed to calculate the mortality risk scores. We determined 6- and 12-month mortality for included residents. Using each mortality risk score as the sole independent predictor in logistic models predicting mortality, we determined discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic) for each model. Results. In our sample, discrimination was 0.59 for both the MMRI and the MMRI-R. Discrimination of the original Flacker–Kiely model was 0.69 for both 6 months and 1 year and 0.71 and 0.70, respectively, for the revised model. Model calibration was adequate for all models. Conclusions. Performance of four models that predict long-term mortality of nursing home residents was fair. In our population, the Flacker–Kiely models had similar and markedly better discrimination than either the MMRI or the MMRI-R. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background Although lower respiratory tract infections (LRI) cause considerable morbidity and mortality among nursing home residents with dementia, the effects of care and treatment are largely unknown. Few large prospective studies have been conducted. Methods We pooled data from two large prospective cohort studies in 61 Dutch nursing homes and 36 nursing homes in the state of Missouri, United States. We included 551 US residents and 381 Dutch residents with dementia and LRI. Main outcome measures were 3-month mortality and decline in activities of daily living (ADL) function after 3 months compared with pre-illness status. Using multivariable multinomial logistic regression to control for confounding, we assessed associations of restraint use and antibiotic type (oral compared with parenteral), with outcomes of lower respiratory tract infection (LRI). Survival without ADL decline was the reference category. Results After multivariable adjustment, restraint use was associated with ADL decline (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1–3.3). Oral antibiotics were not associated with 3-month mortality (OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.56–1.2). Severe dementia was the strongest independent predictor of decline; mortality was most strongly associated with male gender. Conclusions Among Dutch and US nursing home residents with dementia and LRI, restrained residents suffered more decline. Parenteral antibiotic treatment was not associated with better outcome in residents at low to moderate risk of mortality. Aggressive treatment strategies may provide little benefit for the majority of nursing home residents with dementia and LRI. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine long-term mortality and its determinants in nursing home residents with dementia diagnosed with a lower respiratory tract infection (LRI). Setting and Patients: US (Missouri) nursing home residents (541) and Dutch residents (403) with dementia who were treated with antibiotics for an LRI. Methods: Prospective studies of nursing home–acquired LRI in the US (Missouri) and in the Netherlands. Measurements included demographics, indicators of acute illness, general health condition, intake problems, and comorbid disease. Six-month mortality rates were calculated and Cox proportional hazards models were developed for mortality up to 2 years after diagnosis. Results: Six-month mortality was 48.8% among Dutch residents and 36.4% among US residents. After multivariable adjustment, Dutch nationality was not associated with higher long-term mortality. Variables most strongly associated with long-term mortality were activity of daily living dependency and male gender. Other variables associated with outcome were diverse: respiratory difficulty, age, dehydration, congestive heart failure, decreased alertness, decubitus ulcers, Parkinson disease, weight loss/poor nutrition, and pulse rate. Conclusion: LRI is followed by substantial mortality in the months after diagnosis, indicating high frailty of nursing home residents with dementia who develop LRI. A variety of patient characteristics, including many not directly related to LRI, were consistently associated with long-term mortality in two cohorts with differing illness severity. The results are relevant for informing families, evaluating poor long-term survival in the context of care and treatment, and balancing the potential burdens and benefits of care. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Background and Objective: Generalizability of clinical predictors for mortality from lower respiratory infection (LRI) in nursing home residents has not been assessed for residents with dementia. Study Design and Setting: In prospective cohort studies of LRI in 61 nursing homes in the Netherlands (n = 541) and 36 nursing homes in Missouri, USA (n = 564), we examined 14-day and 1- and 3-month mortality in residents with dementia who were treated with antibiotics. Results: A logistic model predicting 14-day mortality derived from Dutch data included eating dependency, elevated pulse, decreased alertness, respiratory difficulty, insufficient fluid intake, high respiratory rate, male gender, and pressure sores. After adjusting coefficients with the heuristic shrinkage factor, the 14-day model showed good discrimination and calibration in both datasets. The apparent c-statistic for the original Dutch model was 0.80 (after correction for optimism, it was 0.75); the c-statistic was 0.74 in the U.S. validation population. The models predicting 1- and 3-month mortality showed moderate performance. A scoring system for estimating 14-day mortality performed equally well as the original model. Conclusion: We identified a set of credible clinical predictors that are easily assessed and demonstrated validity in identifying residents at low risk of dying from LRI across different nursing home populations. This tool should inform decision-making for families and doctors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

BACKGROUND. Lower respiratory infections (LRI) are an important cause of morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization of nursing home residents, yet treatment recommendations have primarily been based on the minority who are hospitalized. We sought to prospectively evaluate risk factors for mortality from LRI in community nursing home residents. METHODS. We studied residents of 10 central Missouri nursing homes (910 beds) from January 1994 to September 1994. Attending physicians authorized nurse evaluations of ill residents who showed symptoms of an LRI. Those residents who met the study definition of LRI received a more detailed assessment and follow ups at 30 and 90 days. RESULTS. The 231 evaluations identified 141 LRIs in 121 individuals. Sixteen (11%) residents died within 30 days of evaluation. The most important univariate predictor of 30-day mortality was severe activities of daily living (ADL) dependency (relative risk = 8.8, 95% confidence interval, 2.55 - 30.1). Several other clinical and laboratory findings were also significant predictors. In multivariable logistic regression, ADL dependency, respiratory rate, and pneumonia on chest radiograph independently predicted mortality; the model showed good discriminating ability (c=.83). CONCLUSIONS. For nursing home residents with LRI, ADL dependency is an important mortality predictor. Further research with a larger sample should lead to a useful prediction rule for outcome from nursing home-acquired LRI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has emerged as a less invasive alternative to open repair for ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms (rAAA), but comparisons to traditional open rAAA repair and late complications leading to readmission are limited. Materials and Methods: Hospitalizations for patients undergoing repair for rAAA were selected from the Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD). In-hospital mortality, complications, 30-day readmission, readmission diagnoses, and charges were evaluated. Design-adjusted chi-square, Wilcoxon test, and logistic regression were used for analysis. Results: During 2014-2016, 3,629 open rAAA and 5,037 EVAR were identified. The index mortality rate was 21.4% for EVAR vs. 33.5% for open (p <.0001). Median index length of stay (LOS) was 4.9 days for EVAR vs. 8.6 days for open repair (p < 0.001). All-cause 30-day readmission after rAAA was higher following EVAR (18.9%) than open (14.3%, p =.007). Time to readmission and charges for readmission stays did not differ between procedure groups. Respiratory complications were more common following open repair than EVAR (20.4% vs 11.4%, respectively; p =.008). Patients who underwent open repair suffered more infectious complications than patients treated with EVAR during readmission (49.2% vs 39.8%, respectively; p = 0.054). In multivariable analysis, factors associated with readmission included having EVAR during the index stay (Odds ratio [OR] = 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.88; p =.003), increased length of index stay (OR = 1.01; 95% CI 1.01-1.02; p = 0.002), chronic kidney disease (OR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.18-1.94; p =.001), and coronary artery disease (OR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.02-1.71; p =.034). Aggregate readmission charges totaled $79 million. Readmissions were most often infectious complications for both repair types. Conclusions: EVAR was used more often than open repair for rAAA. In-hospital mortality and length of the index stay were significantly lower following EVAR. After multivariable adjustment, the odds of readmission were 1.5 times higher after EVAR, costing the health system more over time when prevalence and readmission are considered. Coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, and index length of stay were also associated with 30-day readmission. Further investigation into reasons why a less invasive procedure, EVAR, has a higher readmission rate and understanding post-discharge infectious complications may help lower overall health care utilization after rAAA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Prognostic information is important for guiding palliative care planning for patients with dementia. We aim to validate a risk score that uses Minimum Data Set (MDS) to estimate 6-month mortality for nursing home residents with advanced dementia. Design: Two cohort studies. Setting: Six nursing homes in the Netherlands, and 35 nursing homes in Missouri. Participants: Long-term stay residents with advanced dementia: 288 Dutch residents and 269 residents from Missouri who also had a lower respiratory tract infection (LRI). Measurements: Patient risk factors and 6-month mortality. Results: Six-month mortality rates were 24.3% for Dutch residents, and 36.8% for US residents. The risk score’s AUROC was 0.65 (CI 0.58–0.72), and 0.64 (CI 0.58–0.71), respectively. For the large majority of residents, observed mortality in the 2 validation cohorts were comparable to the development cohort. Among the few residents identified as at very high risk according to the risk score, observed mortality was lower than expected. Conclusion: The original mortality risk score predicted 6-month mortality with reasonable accuracy in 2 validation cohorts of nursing home residents with advanced dementia. Thus, the performance of the risk score, at least over the range of low to moderate risk (up to around 40% risk of mortality), can be generalized to long-stay (versus recently admitted) residents with advanced dementia, and to those with LRI. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]