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In two events, on November 15 and 17, 2000, near the Mangart Mountain (2679 m a.s.l.), NW Slovenia, two translational landslides (debris flow slides) with a total volume of more than 1.5 million m3 occurred on the Stozˇe slope composed of morainic material filled with silt fraction. The first landslide was associated with a dry and the second landslide with a wet debris-flow, respectively. The rain gauging station in the village of Log pod Mangartom recorded 1638.4 mm of rainfall (more than 60% of the average annual precipitation) in the 48 days before the events (rainfall intensity of 1.42 mm/h in 1152 h). The recorded rainfall depth has a recurrence interval of more than 100 years. Other recorded rainfall depths of shorter duration (481.6 mm in 7 days, 174.0 mm in 24 h, 70 mm in 1 h) have recurrence intervals of much less than 100 years. A hydrological analysis of the event showed that the increase in runoff coefficients during the wet period in autumn 2000 before the landslide was as high as two- to threefold. An analysis using natural isotopes of δ18O and tritium of water samples from the Stozˇe landslide area has shown permanent but slow exfiltration of underground waters from a reservoir in the slope. In the case of low-intensity and long-duration rainfall in autumn 2000, relatively low permeable (10−7 m/s) morainic material was nearly saturated but remained stable (average porosity 21%, water content 20%, liquid limit 25%) until high artesian pressures up to 100 m developed in the slope by slow exfiltration from the relatively high permeable (10−5 m/s) massive dolomite. The Stozˇe landslide (two debris flow slides) was triggered by high artesian pressures built in the slope after long-duration rainfall. The devastating debris-flows formed from the landslide masses by infiltration of rainfall and surface runoff into the landslide masses and by their liquefaction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In some rainfall-triggered landslides, intensity-duration thresholds can have limited prediction ability; therefore, investigation of alternative approaches that can be used for temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is needed. This paper presents a methodology for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslides based on a lumped conceptual hydrological model. The production storage level during the rainfall event and the rainfall sum during the event are used for landslide prediction. Based on these two hydro-meteorological variables a threshold is defined that could be used for rainfall-induced landslides prediction as part of an early warning system. The presented methodology is tested using the meso-scale Selška Sora River catchment case study in western Slovenia where 20 active landslides from the Slovenian National Landslide Database are used to calibrate and evaluate the methodology performance. The results are compared to three different (i.e. local, regional, and global) intensity-duration thresholds. The results of the presented approach are superior in terms of several goodness-of-fit criteria compared to tested local and global ID thresholds. Because only daily rainfall, evapotranspiration, and discharge data are needed to calibrate the selected hydrological model and only daily rainfall and evapotranspiration to run the model, the presented approach could also be useful for data-scarce areas where detailed physically based landslide prediction models that require many data cannot be constructed. Moreover, we have also derived the probabilistic version of the proposed threshold for triggering of shallow landslides using copula functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Post-Forum Study Tour following the 4th World Landslide Forum 2017 in Ljubljana (Slovenia) focuses on the variety of landslide forms in Slovenia and its immediate NW surroundings, and the best-known examples of devastating landslides induced by rainfall or earthquakes. They differ in complexity of the both surrounding area and of the particular geological, structural and geotechnical features. Many of the landslides of the Study Tour are characterized by huge volumes and high velocity at the time of activation or development in the debris flow. In addition, to the damage to buildings, the lives of hundreds of people are also endangered; human casualties occur. On the first day, we will observe complex Pleistocene to recent landslides related to the Mesozoic carbonates thrust over folded and tectonically fractured Tertiary siliciclastic flysch in the Vipava Valley (SW Slovenia), serving as the main passage between the Friulian lowland and central Slovenia, and thus also an important corridor connecting Northern Italy to Central Europe. A combination of unfavourable geological conditions and intense short or prolonged rainfall periods leads to the formation of different types of complex landslides, from large-scale deep-seated rotational and translational slides to shallow landslides, slumps and sediment gravity flows in the form of debris or mudflows. The second day of the study tour will be held in the Soča River Valley located in NW Slovenia close to the border with Italy, where the most catastrophic Stože landslide in Slovenia recently caused the deaths of seven people, and the nearby Strug landslide, which is a combination of rockfall, landslide and debris flow. The final day of the Post-Forum Study Tour will start in the Valcanale Valley located across the border between Slovenia and Italy, severely affected by a debris flow in August 2003. The flow caused the deaths of two people, damaged 260 buildings; large amounts of deposits blocked the A23 Highway, covering both lanes. In Carinthia (Austria), about 25 km west of Villach, the Dobrač/Dobratsch multiple scarps of prehistoric and historic rockslides will be observed. Dobratsch is a massive mountain ridge with a length of 17 km and a width of 6 km, characterized by steep rocky walls. The 3-day study tour will conclude with a presentation of the Potoška planina landslide, a slide whose lower part may eventually generate a debris flow and therefore represents a hazard for the inhabitants and for the infrastructure within or near the village of Koroška Bela. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]