Search

This paper reviews the economic policies adopted by the Indian government under different policy regimes, provides a political economy perspective of economic growth in the country during 1950–2020 and examines the inclusiveness of the rapid economic growth in recent decades. The growth performance of the economy improved as the economy moved from inward-looking policy regime to the regimes of pro-business and pro-market policies. India's political economy was supportive of the changes in policy regime. After growing at a sluggish rate during the first three decades after 1950–1951, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated significantly after the pro-business reforms in the 1980s, and there was further acceleration after the pro-market reforms since 1991–1992. It has, however, slowed down in recent years. Nevertheless, it has not been inclusive, as the benefits of growth have not reached all sections of the population and all regions of the country equally. On the contrary, disparities in income across regions and inequalities in income, wealth and consumption among individuals have exacerbated, and the problems of unemployment and poverty have been persisting in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional equation of economic well-being with the gross domestic product (GDP) has dominated policy thinking for at least 50 years. However, a variety of authors have pointed to the social and environmental costs of economic development and called for more comprehensive and more representative measures of progress to be developed. Therefore, a variety of 'adjusted' indicators have been developed. The robustness and reliability of these indicators is still a contentious issue. But these attempts raise important questions about sustainable development and pose an important challenge to conventional thinking about the relationship between economic progress, well-being and sustainability. The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is one of the indicators of measuring sustainable development. Apply it to Liaoning Province, this paper evaluates Liaoning's GPI from 1978 to 2011. GPI, Per Capita GPI and GDP of Liaoning are compared with each other. It is concluded that GDP and Per Capita GDP of Liaoning grow much faster than GPI and Per Capita GPI. Grouped all components of GPI into three categories (economy, environment and Social), it shows that social and environmental development lags behind economic growth in Liaoning. This paper is till now a unique application of GPI indicator in Liaoning and China's provincial level and also contribution to the continuing development of the methods and results for the Index of Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). Policy implications are given finally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to present a historical series of Colombian GDP from 1888 to 2013. For that purpose we have employed an expenditure approach to reconstruct the GDP for the period 1888-1929. We linked it to the official statistics data of the DANE. The result is expressed in 2011 purchasing parity dollars for international comparisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing dominance of neoliberalism as the key steering mechanism of the European Union (EU) since the early 1990s has implied the competitiveness-oriented reshaping of cohesion policy. The aim of this paper is to initiate a debate from a critical political economic perspective on the implications of this shift for Central Eastern European (CEE) member states. To this end, the paper discusses the formation of EU centre-periphery relations from a CEE point of view and formulates some preliminary suggestions as to how cohesion policy would need to be rethought in order to ensure the better integration of lagging CEE regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although real GDP is considered a key macroeconomic indicator for a nation's economic development, various criticisms of its method of measurement and interpretation have been appearing increasingly more often. In the previous century, Simon Kuznets already expressed certain doubts. There are a number of alternative methods and proposals (or additions) to GDP for assessing the current level of societal development. This paper deals with comparing these alternatives. Attention is also devoted to analyzing empirical data concerning the development of real GDP and the Human Development Index (HDI). Data will be compared for the Czech Republic and the other countries that jointly entered the EU together with the Czech Republic in 2004 (the EU-10). The reason for this double comparison is to judge the development of this group of countries through the lens of the double comparison method. From the analysis we conducted, it follows that a country's economic development judged on the basis of real GDP shows different characteristics than economic development perceived as satisfaction with a fuller quality of human life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of exogenous changes in the economic environment on individuals’ risk attitudes. We combine data on media coverage of economic news with information on the self-stated willingness to take risks from the German Socioeconomic Panel Study. The average daily frequency of economic news reports is measured for different time frames preceding the date of the risk attitude elicitation. We find that while a short term increase in good news is positively related to the willingness to take risks, the relation is negative if we consider a long term increase. An increase in negative economic news coverage is negatively related to individuals’ willingness to take risks, irrespective of the time frame. A positive (negative) correlation between bad (good) news coverage and individuals’ worries about the economic state suggests that changes in risk perception may partly mediate the relation between news coverage and risk attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was designed to reveal the economic, social, and environmental trade-offs associated with conventional economic growth as traditionally measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although originally designed for use at the national scale, an interest has developed in the United States in a state-level uptake of the GPI to inform and guide policy. This study presents the first fifty-state estimate for U.S. GPI in order to address questions over its design, implementation, and ultimate potential as a tool to guide state-level economic policy. Following a review of the current state of analysis and critique of GPI, we provide an overview of methodology and database development. Results are then presented, including discussion of lessons learned through a fifty-state application. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research and next steps to consolidating a consistent methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Ethiopia to test Wagner's Law which postulates that as real income increases there is a tendency for the share of public expenditure to increase relative to national income. Using the bounds test approach to cointegration, the paper finds robust evidence of a long-run relationship between government expenditure and GDP. Using four long-run estimators, we obtained elasticities ranging from 1.73 to 1.79, implying that a 1% increase in income leads to a 1.73-1.79% increase in government expenditure. Applying a modified version of the Granger causality test, we also found a unidirectional causality running only from GDP to government expenditure thus supporting the Wagnerian hypothesis of an expanding public sector. Since there was no causality running from government expenditure to income, the evidence suggests that the Keynesian view that government expenditure can be an effective policy instrument for promoting economic growth in Ethiopia was not supported. Therefore, there is a need for making fiscal policy as a stabilizer to enhance economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate estimation of GDP for sub-state divisions is needed for studies on the overall size and growth of smaller economies, assessment of the industrial composition by subdivisions and the impact of economic policies, among other reasons. In this paper, I review two popular methods to infer GDP in counties, both of which rely heavily on payroll, without controlling for labor productivity differences between subdivisions. By considering labor productivity heterogeneity across counties, I propose a new methodology that appears to provide a better map of the GDP of counties. For forecasting, my approach uses payroll statistics, but to a lesser extent. The new method is tested with data from Puerto Rico, a suitable jurisdiction given its significant heterogeneity between counties. I am able to map changes in economic geography associated with changes in the state's economic structure. Like many other jurisdictions, Puerto Rico has undergone a deindustrialization process that ended up concentrating GDP in one geographical cluster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper investigates the causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Nigeria during the period 1980–2006. The results of our estimation show that real gross domestic product (rGDP) and electricity consumption (ele) are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption (ele) to (rGDP). Then we applied Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the rGDP and electricity consumption (ele) series. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trend and the cyclical components of the two series, which seems to suggest that the Granger causality is possibly related with the business cycle. The paper suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency in the supply and use of electricity can further stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. The results should, however, be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of loss in power associated with the small sample size and the danger of omitted variable bias that could result from the use of bi-variate analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines the transformation of the Iranian economy through the twentieth century within a global context. At the start of that century, the Iranian economy had long remained stagnant, poor, and largely agrarian, with a marginal role in the world economy. By the turn of the twenty-first century, Iran had transformed into a complex and relatively large economy with important consequences for the economies of the Middle East and other parts of the world. While the initial conditions and the evolution of domestic institutions and resources played major roles in the pace and nature of that transformation, relations with the rest of the world had crucial influences as well. This paper focuses on the latter forces, while taking account of their interactions with domestic factors in shaping the particular form of economic development in Iran. We study the ways in which the development of the Iranian economy has been affected by international price movements and by the ebbs and flows of trade, investment, and economic growth in the rest of the world. In considering these effects, we also analyze the role of domestic political economy factors and policies in enhancing or hindering the ability of domestic producers to respond to external challenges and opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rents form a relatively high share of GDP in developing countries (from 15-50%), so that differences in the scale of the rent and in its distribution among economic agents profoundly affect the evolution of the political economy. This paper deploys two rent-driven political economy models to analyse the performance of four oil-exporting countries (Angola, Venezuela, Indonesia and Algeria). The low-rent model provides a counter-factual for the high-rent model, which typifies most oil-exporters. The low-rent model sustains rapid per capita GDP (PCGDP) growth that brings endogenous democratisation, which is incremental. In contrast, high-rent countries tend to deploy the rent in ways that lock the economy into a staple trap, which aborts competitive economic diversification and represses sanctions against anti-social governance. These adverse staple trap features are heightened in oil-exporting countries because they tend to have very high natural resource rent, which is easily extracted by governments. However, a growth collapse may abruptly trigger political and economic reform if exogenous factors are favourable. This paper applies the models to explain the disappointing oil-driven development in Angola and Venezuela, and also the apparent anomaly of Indonesian development during 1966-96. It concludes by outlining with reference to Algeria a dual track strategy to circumvent the political obstacles that prevent reform in a rent-distorted political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses the similarities and differences between neo-developmentalism and neo-extractivism. The evaluation compares Brazil with nine other Latin American countries and is based on a framework that considers both economic policies and their outcomes. On the policy side, it looks at income, monetary, international trade, industrial and mineral resource policies; on the outcome side, it observes the composition of both exports and the Gross Domestic Product. In the end, we argue that neo-developmentalism and neo-extractivism are actually variations of the same development route and may face similar challenges in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the key features of the Moroccan business cycles during the period 1980:q1–2012:q1. The chronologies in classical and growth cycles, expansion and contraction phases, and full cycles in real gross domestic product are identified. Using the modified Bry–Boschan algorithm, eight business cycles were found and the ninth is not yet achieved. Then, the main features in these cycles are analysed by applying the method of Harding and Pagan [2002. “Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 49: 365–381]. This method has shown that the Moroccan economy characterised by the average cumulative gain is more important than the cumulative loss and by the domination of expansion phases. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The cities and towns of India constitute the world's second largest urban system and contribute over 50% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This phenomenon has been neglected by the existing studies and writings on urban India. By considering 59 large cities in India and employing new economic geography models, this paper investigates the relevant state- and city-specific determinants of urban agglomeration and urban economic growth. In addition, the effect of urban agglomeration on India's urban economic growth is estimated. The empirical results show that agglomeration economies are policy-induced as well as market-determined and offer evidence of the strong positive effect of agglomeration on urban economic growth in India's urban system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper evaluates the accuracy of the annual national road traffic growth-rate forecasts that are prepared by the Norwegian road authorities. The rationale for the study is the fact that national and regional traffic growth-rate forecasts are the basis for policy formation, and inaccurate forecasts may lead to inappropriate policies. The data correspond to the period of 1996–2008 whereas the forecasting models were revised in 2001. The results reveal the following: (1) traffic growth-rate forecasts were more inaccurate in the period before the revision as compared to the period after the revision and underestimation is most common; (2) the naïve growth-rate forecasts perform better than the official forecasts, but GDP growth-rate forecasts perform worse than the official forecasts; (3) the growth-rate forecasts are unbiased and efficient at the national level, but there are variations among regions and time periods. Overall, the Norwegian growth-rate forecast appears to perform fairly well in the short run, but the small inaccuracies that were observed may cause a problem in the long run, particularly in relation to the evaluation of the long-term effects of investments. We therefore advice that models need to be continually revised to accommodate more recent data such as international traffic and immigration which seem to greatly impact on the accuracy of models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisingly fragile, as shown in a number of other papers. We address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationship is contingent on the pattern of comparative advantage, following the endogenous growth literature. Our findings suggest that such contingencies do in fact exist-in particular, the correlation between tariffs and growth is strong and positive for skill-abundant countries-and are robust to the choice of control variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) was introduced by Daly and Cobb in 1989 in order to integrate the information embodied in GDP. Since economic growth implies externalities and market failures, and a portion of it can be defined as “uneconomic”, the ISEW method introduces some corrections and adjustments to the GDP calculation framework. The ISEW has been calculated for a number of nations but it has been rarely applied to sub-national systems. Its calculation at the local level is important especially in case of administrative decentralization, and autonomy and responsibility of local authorities in certain fields. For this reason, a more and more comprehensive knowledge of the characteristics and peculiarities of the territorial system they manage is necessary. This paper presents the results of the ISEW calculation for Tuscany, a region in central Italy, in the period 1971–2006. This is one of the few attempts to apply the ISEW in time series at the regional level. Final results show that a discrepancy between ISEW and GDP appeared in the 1970s. Social and environmental pressures increased during the period under study making the gap equal to about 30 percent of regional GDP in 2006. The ISEW can be used also as a tool for evaluating policies, but further adjustments in calculation of certain items are considered necessary for taking into account and evaluating punctual policies. A case of energy policy is presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

After the 1970s, Malaysia''s economy diversified from agriculture into manufacturing. The manufacturing sector''s contribution grew from a mere 13.4% of the total GDP in 1970, to 30.3% of the GDP in 2007. Realising that increasing industrialisation causes threats to the environment, Malaysia has always emphasised environmental protection. The 2008 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) study carried out by Yale University and Columbia University ranked Malaysia 26th out of 149 countries that participated in the study. However, there are still a number of challenges that need immediate attention, particularly issues pertaining to chemical management. Several initiatives pertaining to chemical management are currently carried out by various agencies across government, private sector and civil society but these initiatives take a sectoral approach. Several structures are suggested towards the establishment of a sound chemical management system (CMS) in Malaysia, namely the gazetting of a Chemical Act, the establishment of a designated Chemical Authority and the development of a Malaysian Chemical Database (MyCD). A set of economic policy instruments is also prescribed in this paper to aid the appropriate authorities in their efforts to materialize a sound chemical management system in Malaysia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents new time series estimates of GDP, capital stock and education-adjusted employment, and uses a growth accounting approach to analyze GDP growth during 1880-2008. The growth of capital stock, employment and educational attainment explained almost all of GDP growth. During key growth periods 1900-29 and 1975-97, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth was on balance negative. TFP growth was substantial during some sub-periods, particularly 1933-41, 1951-61, 1967-74 and 2000-08. Each followed a major economic downturn that slowed capital stock growth and required a more efficient use of productive resources, supported by changes in economic policy that enhanced productivity and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper develops and applies a simple “conditional growth” framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point the recent empirical evidence about the drivers of existing cross-country income disparities. Human capital is projected by cohorts, and allowance is implicitly made for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on employment growth. Leaving aside deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty, projections are found to be sensitive to future economic policies in the areas of education, pensions, labour markets and climate change mitigation, and even more so to total factor productivity and population trends. A baseline scenario projects fairly stable world GDP growth of about 3.5% annually on average (in PPP terms) over 2005–2050. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The aim of this paper is to discuss whether human development was concurrent with economic growth during the transition towards a market economy in Central Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The main hypothesis is that economic growth is not always concurrent with human development. Using an OLS model, human development variables were correlated with GDP per capita. The results suggest that in transition economies human development is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for economic growth. A Granger causality test confirms this finding. Therefore, investing in human development is crucial for obtaining GDP growth. However, since human development is strictly correlated with institutions, appropriate institutional policies are crucial to a development process. Dans cet article, on se demande si le développement humain va de pair avec la croissance économique dans la période de transition en Europe de l'Est et Centrale et dans l'ex-URSS. L'hypothèse principale est que la croissance économique ne contribue pas toujours au développement humain. L'utilisation d'un modèle MCO (moindres carrés ordinaires) montre que les variables de développement humain étaient corrélées avec le niveau de PIB par tête. Le résultat suggère que dans les pays en transition, le niveau de développement humain est une condition suffisante mais pas nécessaire pour la croissance économique. Un test de causalité de Granger confirme une telle relation. Il devient dès lors crucial de s'intéresser au développement humain dans une perspective de croissance économique. Cependant, si le développement humain est strictement corrélé avec les institutions, les politiques institutionnelles sont déterminantes pour le processus de développement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes into account recent advances in econometric techniques and examines Wagner's Law of long run relationship between public expenditure and GDP for the Turkish case over the period of 1965-2000. The relationship is supposed public expenditure to be an outcome, not cause, of growth in GDP. Causality must run from GDP to public expenditure, not other ways around. Using the co-integration test and the Granger Causality test, we empirically find no causality in both directions; neither Wagner's Law nor Keynes hypothesis is valid for the Turkish case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing share of the EU budget devoted to Regional Policy, several studies have tried to identify the impact of structural funds on economic growth. However, so far no consensus has been reached. We assess Regional Policy effects through a non-experimental comparison group method, the regression discontinuity design, and a novel regional dataset for the 1994-2006 period. We exploit the allocation rule of EU transfers by comparing regions with a per capita GDP level just below the eligibility threshold (75% of EU average) with those just above. Our findings show a positive impact of EU Regional Policy on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]