Search

Despite the support of technological improvements in hazard monitoring and management, the aspect of dissemination of scientific data is still underestimated. Hazard monitoring systems are usually organized in complex networks, composed of automatized procedures in order to capture, pre-process, elaborate, transfer the monitoring result data and to generate warnings. However, a well-organized communication strategy leads to success in hazard management, especially concerning emergency conditions. In this paper, we present an approach for monitoring results dissemination in the form of single-page informative bulletin, composed of synthetic information dedicated to non-expert receivers. We developed an automatic methodology for fast and efficient data analysis and proper elaboration and dissemination, and we integrated all these elements into an algorithm for automatic bulletin generation. Our purpose was to construct a configurable tool that could be easily adapted to the hazard conditions under study. Afterwards, we applied the developed algorithm to landslide monitoring data-set. We validated the proposed approach by verifying the consistency of the model. Our methodology shows how to integrate a variety of information relative to landslide evolution, and it can be a convenient support for the management of natural hazards especially during critical situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work focuses on the development of a combined statistical-mechanical approach to predict changes in landslide displacement rates from observed changes in rainfall amounts. The forecasting tool FLAME (Forecasting Landslides Accelerations induced by Meteorological Events) associates (1) a statistical impulse response (IR) model to simulate the changes in landslide rates by computing a transfer function between the input signal (e.g. rainfall) and the output signal (e.g. displacement) and (2) a simple 1D mechanical (MA) model (e.g. viscoplastic rheology) to take into account changes in pore water pressure. The models have been applied to forecast the displacement rates at the Super-Sauze landslide (South East France). The performance of different combinations of models (IR model alone, MA model alone and a combination of the IR and MA models) is evaluated against observed changes in pore water pressures and displacement rates at the study site. Results indicate that the three models are able to reproduce the displacement pattern in the general kinematic regime (succession of acceleration and deceleration phases); conversely, extreme kinematic regimes such as fluidization of part of the landslide mass are not being reproduced. The approach constitutes however a robust tool to predict changes in displacement rates from rainfall or groundwater time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]