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Abstract: Wheat–maize double cropping is the most important cropping system on the Hebei Plain and is one of the most important cropping systems in China. In a scenario of greater food demand, and increasing water and rural labour scarcity, it is critical that the annual productivity of the system is improved in water-energy-cost efficient and low carbon ways. Based on farm surveys, this paper benchmarked the performance of wheat–maize double crops on the Hebei Plain during the 2004–2005 season. These farm yields were assessed both against experimental yields collected from on-farm maximum yield trials conducted during the same 2004–2005 season and relative to simulated estimates of the climate-driven potential productivity of the region. The survey of 362 farms in six counties of the Hebei Plain during the 2004–2005 season found wheat yields ranging from 3375kgha−1 to 9000kgha−1 with an overall average yield of 6556kgha−1. Maize yields averaged 7549kgha−1 and ranged from 3375kgha−1 to 11,250kgha−1. The aggregate production for the wheat–maize double crops grown in the 2004–2005 season averaged 14,105kgha−1 across the six counties. This was 72% of the average production (19,586kgha−1) recorded from on-farm trials conducted in each of the six counties and 60% of the simulated average production potential (24,147kgha−1) for the Hebei Plain in the 2004–2005 season. Thus, the annual productivity of the current cropping system could be increased with currently available technologies by 28%, while a yield increase of 42% is possible if farm yields approach the simulated yield potential. Based on farmer interviews and field observations, a number of real and perceived reasons for the current yield gaps in farmers’ fields were recognised. For instance, irrigation at stem-elongation of wheat is a current recommendation, yet only a proportion of the surveyed farmers were able to follow this strategy due to lack of access to shared irrigation facilities. Improving the region''s infrastructure to enable more timely irrigation of crops will be a necessary prerequisite to improved productivity. The results from the farm surveys and on-farm trials indicate that, with current recommended practices, farmers can improve their annual farm productivity and close the current yield gaps. However, the survey identified that increasing system performance and efficiency will require a focus on both agronomic and socio-economic issues. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Future climate warming led to advance in wheat and maize phenology. • Future climate change had negative impact on maize but positive impact on wheat. • Crop water consumption was largely decreased under future climate scenarios. • Future climate change could mitigate groundwater overdraft across NCP. Climate change has already and will continue to exert a vital impact on crop yield and water use in the North China Plain (NCP). Currently, this plain is facing a dilemma between groundwater depletion and grain production demand. It is urgent to identify the impact of future climate change on crop yield and water consumption and then develop efficient adaptation strategies in the region. In this study, we used statistically downscaled daily climate data from 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 61 stations distributed across the NCP and drove the well-validated APSIM model to simulate crop yield and water use for two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040s) and 2071–2100 (2080s). Data from all 33 GCMs show an increase in annual mean temperature and almost all the GCMs also show increases in annual mean solar radiation and annual total precipitation across the NCP. Future climate warming led to an advance in phenology for both winter wheat and summer maize, two typical crops in the NCP. However, the length of the reproductive growth period (RGP) of winter wheat was prolonged while that of summer maize was shortened under future climate scenarios across the NCP. Our simulated results show that future climate change had negative impacts on maize yield but positive impacts on wheat yield across the NCP. Mainly due to the shortening of the whole growth period, crop water consumption was largely decreased under future climate scenarios. The amount of irrigation required was also reduced mainly due to increased precipitation and decreased ET. Although future climate change would likely mitigate groundwater overdraft in most part of NCP, some areas in the northern NCP still had groundwater over-pumping in the future. Therefore, we suggest that it might be a good choice to change cropping system for reducing planting area of water-consuming crop (e.g. winter wheat) in those over-pumping areas to balance groundwater use and crop yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]